A Rivalry Rexamined: Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Washington Sports Fans may have neglected to notice that the best team in the NHL's Eastern Conference currently resides at the Verizon Center.  The Capitals are dominating their opponents this season with the newly acquired talent of players like TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, but the one constant on this team that continues to lead them to success is Alex Ovechkin.  While Ovechkin is not the omnipotent force he was early in his career, the Russian Machine has been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons into a sharp shooting opportunist who is scoring goals on more than just breakaways, powerful one timers, and toe drag moves.  Ovechkin has been able to evolve into a player who can score from close in or on rebounds and help out on the back check, which has put him in the top ten in plus/minus so far this season.  It is this evolution that has put the Capitals a top the Eastern Conference, and it should be reviving an old argument for Capital fans based on what is happening with Ovechkin's long time nemesis. 
In Western Pennsylvania, the Penguins and their captain are having somewhat of a different type of season.  The Penguins find themselves fifth in the Metropolitan Division and Sidney Crosby is not exactly having the best of seasons so far.  The normally surgical tactician has only 24 points (7 goals/17 assists) and is a -5, which should be bringing the argument of Crosby vs. Ovechkin back into the NHL consciousness if these season trends continue for both players. There is no question that right now Crosby's Stanley Cup Championship and two Gold Medals outpace Ovechkin's superior individual accomplishments, but Crosby's lackluster season so far begins to beg the question of longevity.  What happens if Crosby's production continues to wane and Ovechkin can continue to be a top 10 goal scorer for that same period of time? 

Ovechkin had his dip in production from 2010-2012 where people were asking if Ovechkin's time as a dominant goal scorer was over.  He responded with three straight Rocket Richard Trophies and has vaulted himself back into the NHL's elite.  The difference with Sidney Crosby is that he has already had a decline in production in his career.  From 2010-2013 Crosby only played in 99 games due to injury, and his overall stats subsequently took a hit.  It is scary to think of what Crosby's career numbers would be had he been able to play more over those three seasons, and he did come back to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) in 2013-2014, but another statistical dud from Crosby sans injury could begin to swing the argument back in Ovechkin's favor if Ovechkin is able to continue to be productive.  Fifty goal scorers are not common at Ovechkin's age, and if Ovechkin can score 50 even one more time it may add the dimension of prolonged success to this argument that could offset some of the significance of the championships that Crosby has won.
Wherever a current hypothetical scenario can take this argument, the current reality is that Crosby is on top due to the championships he has won with the Penguins and Team Canada.  But up until this year it almost seemed a forgone conclusion that Ovechkin would need to win a Stanley Cup before this rivalry could be revived.  Looking at the season that Crosby is having now may counter that sentiment by seeing how well each player can end their career.  If Crosby ends his career with only second/third line center production, and if Ovechkin can do what only 8 players have done in NHL history (score 50 goals after age 30) and continue to be a legit first line winger for the next three to five years, it may give Ovechkin an edge over Crosby in terms of longevity.  And if the Capitals can do what some people say they should do this year, it will vault Ovechkin over his longtime nemesis and revive a rivalry that has lain dormant for the past five years.


Redskins vs. Eagles 2: The Showcase Showdown

 

Kirk.......Cousins! Come on Down! You're the next contestant on The Price is Right for a Quarterback Who is Improving Through A Season to the Point of Leading the League in Some Statistical Categories, But Not the Categories That Drive High Contract Prices, But Gets You In the Position for the Playoffs That You Were Not Expecting So You Have to Pay Him or Else He'll Go Somewhere Else That Will Pay Him That Much Money And Psychologically You Will Not Be Able to Deal With That Kind Of Rejection.  That's not too long of a title for a game show, right? I'll also lay the rhetoric on thick by asking the question; Doesn't this weekend's game between the Eagles and the Redskins seem like one of those bad endings to The Price is Right?  Two people at the end of the show who beat out the old lady at the wheel who everyone was pulling for (the Dallas Cowboys) all just to get a shot at 2 jet skis or a trip to the Grand Canyon. It does.  All except for the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing for a contract.  If you believe the canon being spewed out by the powers that be, Cousins will be back in DC regardless of the outcome of this season.  The question is price.  The Redskins have the first bid in this Showcase Showdown, and if they beat the Eagles on Saturday Night you can believe that Cousins will fetch north of $20 Million per year solely on the fact that another team (Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis) will pay that much for his services.  But if the Redskins balk at the jet skies because it is highly regulated on the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay, it leaves room for the Eagles to swoop in and rain on Kirk Cousins' $20 Million Dollar Parade.  Here is what the Redskins need to do to ensure that they secure their first playoff berth in three years:

Nail Jell-O to the Wall: The Redskins running attack has gone through peaks and valleys this season.  Their run game has come under specific fire after the Rams game in Week 2 for not being dynamic enough, but in all of The Redskins' last four wins they have been able to amass at least 99 yards of rushing or more.  The first war on record where the casualties from combat outnumbered the casualties from disease and famine was the Russo-Japanese War of the early 20th Century.  Why?   Because the combat code of the Japanese (the Bushido) called for Japanese soldiers to have honor and die in combat so they would keep charging the Russians until they all died or they won. The Redskins would do well to heed this "stick to your solution at all costs" mentality as the running game can open up the passing game.  Keeping the down and distance manageable and continually coming at your opponent with the same tactics regardless of outcome or success will lead to a degradation of the Eagles' will.  The Redskins need to run the football, regardless of their yards per carry average.  Alfred Morris and Matt Jones will provide enough  support so that all other parts of the team will be able to function.  The one area where the Redskins outstrip the Eagles statistically is in time of possession.  Feed the ball to Morris and Jones on first and second down and good things will happen.  The Redskins will possess the ball and keep the Eagles in a constant stat of panic. This will only work if the Defense does its' job.

Limit Big Plays: Listen to these statistical anomalies.  1) The Redskins' Defense is giving up a higher yards per completion rate than the Eagles, but they are giving up a lower yards per game rate than the Eagles.  2)  The Eagles' passing yards per attempt is 0.6 yards less than the Redskins 3)  The Redskins are giving up more yards per attempt than yards per game in the running attack than the Eagles. Translation?  The Redskins give up big plays.  Look no further than last week where the Bills hit on two plays of 40 yards or more in the second half to make a game of what was otherwise a rout conducted by both the Redskins' offense and defense.  Also, the Eagles relied on two plays of 39 yards or more to keep pace with the Redskins in their first meeting of the season.  If the Redskins expect to win they will need to limit the pays of 40 yards or more, and have their defense pester Sam Bradford into turning the ball over  a whopping 15.2%, which is good for 5th highest TO% in the league.  Otherwise, the Eagles and Redskins seem evenly matched and it will come down to a matter of wills.

Win and You're In:  The narrative all throughout the preseason was how the Redskins need to rebuild, with very few people touting the talent that the Redskins compiled in the offseason (all of it is good, but read the last paragraph).  Now we find ourselves bidding first in a Showcase Showdown for the NFC East Title, in a venue and a timeslot that has not been hospitable to us in the past.  The last time the Redskins won at Lincoln Financial Field was with Robert Griffin in 2012, and we do not need to rehash the Redskins' impotence once the sun goes down.  But four months ago we were saying that six wins would be a successful season.  The Redskins have eclipsed that mark and now are one win away from making it to the playoffs.  It will not be easy against the Eagles, and I see a back and forth game for the first half.  But the Redskins' offense will prove too much to deal with, and the Redskins pass rush will eventually wear down Sam Bradford to the point of him making some costly mistakes in the second half.  Get ready HTTR nation.  We will not have to wait another decade to see a home playoff game.

Redskins Win: 30-21

Redskins vs. Bills: A Game of Unexpected Significance

When the 2015 NFL Schedule was released on April 23, anyone who was not a patient at St. Elizabeth's Hospital probably reacted to the announcement that the Redskins would play the Bills on December 20 the same way The Dude reacted to the Sheriff of Malibu.  I guess John Hinckley gets the last laugh now as the Bills come to town on Sunday with a nothing to lose attitude spiced up by that sliver of playoff hope the experts dub "not mathematically eliminated", while the Redskins come into this game with more to play for than anyone in HTTR nation could have expected seven months ago.  The most notable of these unexpected gems is a chance at the playoffs, but there are fringe story lines that will play a big part in the narrative on Sunday.  First, the Redskins have the opportunity to finish with their best home record since 2005.  There has not been much to cheer for at FedEx Field over the past decade, but the last two years in particular have exponentially exacerbated the jaded feeling Redskins fans get when they know that four hours of their Sunday will be spent in traffic on I-495 just to see their favorite team lose.  This season has been a godsend for Redskins fans who want to see their team win at home and win when there are playoff implications on the line.  Finally, the Sports Junkies reminded me on Friday morning that this could possibly be the last home game for Robert Griffin as a Redskin.  Barring any crazy finish to the season, one can assume that Dan Snyder will want to save his $16 Million and let Robert Griffin walk at the end of this season.  That means that Griffin's last home game in DC will be spent in street clothes.  A far cry from three years ago where he was being heralded as the savior of this franchise, and now he must watch helplessly as the Cain to his Abel leads the Redskins to a possible playoff berth. The Bills will not be an easy out, though, so here is what the Redskins should be focusing on to continue their playoff run:

Beware the Read Option: The Redskins will face an all too familiar foe this Sunday in LeSean McCoy, but they have never faced him with a quarterbacking counterpart as versatile as Tyrod Taylor.  Buffalo boasts the third best rushing yards per game (141.8) and per rushing attempt (4.7) in the league so far, while the Redskins' defense is giving up the fourth worst yards per attempt in the league (4.6).  To make matters worse, the Redskins have traditionally done a poor job of defending the read option.  That was on display last week where 55 of Chicago's 87 rushing yards came in the second half when the Bears started to run a more read option style running attack, and no one is really worried that Jay Cutler is going to burn you for big yardage on the ground.  But McCoy and Taylor can, so guys like Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy need to be disciplined enough to not over pursue and keep the running attack contained, and guys like Will Compton and Perry Riley need to be good about wrapping up and not getting out of position. Otherwise we may see a big day for McCoy and Taylor on the ground.  Taylor will also play a big role in the passing game.

Precision Vs. Efficiency in the Passing Game: This game will highlight two quarterbacks who have very quietly carved out a niche for themselves in the discussion of good quarterbacking play this season.  Neither of these quarterbacks would be dubbed "elite", and neither will overwhelm you with the big stats like total yards and touchdowns.  What they have done is quietly moved themselves into the top 10 in statistical categories that pits precision against efficiency this weekend at FedEx Field. 
Kirk Cousins is precise.  He has been the most accurate quarterback this season putting up a league leading completion percentage of 69.2%, and he is in the top 10 in passes completed and passes completed per game.  Detractors will point to the fact that he is throwing shorter routes, but he is making good decisions and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers more often than naught.  Cousins has been able to win because of his precision, but Taylor has been able to win because he is efficient.  Taylor has the fifth highest quarterback rating this season at 100.9, which is better than both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.  He is also fifth in yards per attempt and sixth in yards per completion, and doing this without being in the top 10 in total attempts or yards.  This means that Taylor is throwing the ball long, completing the ball long, and not making many mental errors in his throwing game.  This will be a test of who can make the least amount of mistakes, while at the same time being the best in their respective statistical categories.  Kirk Cousins will need to be true to his completion percentage in order to keep drives alive, and Taylor will need to be completing long passes to force the Redskins out of their methodical offensive pace. 

Win And You're In: Here we are again.  The Redskins find themselves in a must win game to keep pace with a suddenly resurgent Eagles and Giants on their heels.  The Redskins faced a similar opportunity two weeks ago on Monday Night against the Cowboys, when they had a chance to pull away from the rest of the NFC East.  Instead we got a classic Redskins boner performance in prime time. Now they face a very dangerous Bills team that could turn this game into a track meet if the Redskins decide not to show up. The Redskins will give up big yards on the ground, but they will not allow the Bills to get into the end zone and force more field goals than touchdowns.  The Redskins will win by doing the opposite, and scoring touchdowns for every Buffalo field goal.  The Redskins will win, which will set up a huge match against the Eagles next week.

Redskins win: 28-23

Redskins vs. Giants Part Deux: The World is Changing

No. The Redskins are not the powers of Isengard and Mordor combined.  But after reading this article about Tony Romo's future and watching the total implosion of the Eagles on national television, this statement from Saruman seemed appropriate for the current state of affairs in the NFC East.  The Cowboys season is all but lost, and they now need to start seriously considering a plan for their quarterback position post Tony Romo.  The Eagles' public disembowelment on Thanksgiving showed that they also have little hope for the future with their current quarterbacks, and they may not have much confidence in anything Chip Kelley does for them outside of ordering lunch.  And even that may get dicey at times.  Which brings us to Sunday's rematch of the other two teams in the division. 

The Giants lead the division, but their last two losses came on the last play of the game where they allowed the Saints and Patriots to drive down the field in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.  The Giants may be losing that moxie that saved them so many times in close situations, and Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are not getting any younger.  But the Redskins have at least some confidence in their quarterback for this season and possibly for the future. If you believe the reports that came out this week, The Redskins have enough confidence in Gruden that he will return next year.  All of this makes this game on Sunday more than just a battle for first place this year.  It could give the Redskins organization the shot of confidence they need to fill the looming vacuum that is being created by the hubris, incompetence, and aging of the other teams in the NFC East.  If the Redskins would like to change their fortunes this weekend here is what they need to do.

If you can't get up for a game like this.......: All poetic gravitas aside, the Redskins are playing for a tie for first place in the NFC East.  That should be enough motivation for the Redskins to come out firing on all cylinders, but if they need more motivation they should look at the records of the remaining opponents for all the NFC East teams:

Giants remaining opponents:      34-27
Eagles remaining opponents:      32-18
Cowboys remaining opponents: 21-20 (play redskins twice)
Redskins remaining opponents: 22-31 (play cowboys twice)

The Redskins have the easiest schedule on paper for the remainder of the season, but remember that the Redskins also have three more road games to play.  A win would put them in the drivers seat, but a loss would almost force them to win out in order to try and make the playoffs. 

Leave the Run; Take the Pass: It would behoove the Redskins to focus on beating the Giants defense with the pass first. The Giants have given up the most total completions, total passing yards, and yards per game so far this season.  They are also tied with the Falcons for fewest number of sacks this season with 12.  This plays into the Redskins passing style that relies on high completion percentage (Cousins is third in the league) and not taking sacks because of getting the ball out quickly.  Look for a lot of Jordan Reed to exploit the middle of the field, and quick hitters to Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to alleviate pressure.  Also, look for Crowder to get some looks with wide receiver screens to make the Giants spread out.  If the Redskins can get the passing game going it may open up the running lanes enough to have some success.  This is all predicated on the Redskins doing one thing.

Clock Control: The Redskins need to control the clock.  The Giants' offensive strength is efficiency.  The Giants score on 42.7% of their drives which is good for third in the league behind New England and Arizona, and only 0.7% ahead of Carolina who showed what can happen to the Redskins if they allow a team to score on every possession.  The Giants are also only turning the ball over on 9.1% of their drives compared to the Redskins who turn the ball over on 17.6% of their drives.  What's worse is that the Giants defense forces a turnover on 19.3% of their drives which is second best in the league behind Carolina. What all of this means is that the Giants score a lot, they don't turn the ball over very much, and if you are holding onto the ball too long they are taking it back so they can score again.  The Redskins need to be able to keep pace with the Giants by matching their efficiency through clock control and limiting turnovers.  Short passes will be the name of the game on Sunday, and taking advantage of favorable running situations in order to keep the ball away from the Giants' offense.

A Test of Character:  Finally, forgetting all the stats, this game will be about whether or not this team has really had a character change.  The talk this week has been about how good the Redskins have been at home this season and how well they have bounced back from losses, but certain individuals must answer the call to prove these notions are not just talking points for TV analysts.  Kirk Cousins needs to prove that he can win a game with legitimate playoff implications when all eyes are on him.  The defense needs to prove that it can come up with big stops against a team that terrorized them earlier this season, and who will look to exploit their deficiencies in the run game.  Finally, the coaching staff needs to prove that they can come up with a solid game plan in a meaningful game.  Just like Cousins, this will be Jay Gruden's first game as a head coach where there are legitimate playoff implications. How this team responds to the opening call, and how they adjust to the flow of the game will show how good of a head coach Jay Gruden really is. 

I have a bad feeling about this game.  The Giants' offense has been clicking the past three weeks, while the Redskins' defense continues to fall into despair.  No Chris Culliver means that Odell Beckham should be going all Keyshawn on Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin.  But I will go with the title of this article and say the world is changing.  Cousins has a solid, but not flashy, game and the defense is able to come up with one big play that keeps us in the game.  It will be close either way, but I'll believe the Redskins can do it.

Redskins win 24-20

Keep KC in DC

One way to become popular is to leech off the popularity of others.  So I thought I would rebrand a pipe dream of a slogan into something that could actually happen.  Keep KC in DC.  The Redskins need to start talking with Kirk Cousins about a contract extension based on his performance over the last three games, his evolution as a passer and leader over the course of this season, and the fact that the future alternatives for the Redskins are ambiguous at best.  Here is a list of reasons why the Redskins need to Keep KC in DC.

Who Would We Replace Him With?
Here is the list of winners who will be free agents with Cousins this offseason. The problem for the Redskins is Cousins has played well enough to out pace all of these guys on that list. If the Redskins let Cousins test the open market he will be the best free agent out there, and you have to assume that teams like the Texans, Jets, Bills, Browns, Broncos, Eagles, and maybe the Rams will put in competitive offers for Cousins's services.  With so many teams in need of a quarterback, and Cousins being 27 and at the top of the free agent list, it is not unlikely that he decides to go where the money is good because this may be his only shot at a big payday. 

Another alternative is the draft, but that road is fraught with even more uncertainty.  The top quarterbacks in the Draft this year are Christian Hackenberg who sucks (I don't care how good he was his freshman year and the "James Franklin's offense ruined his development" argument.  If we let Cousins go for this guy I will be livid), Cardale Jones (read the passage beginning "Said one AFC GM" below the picture of Jones and read the quote from Phil Savage below the picture of Jamarcus Russell), and Connor Cook who may be better but it may also take him time to acclimate to the offense.  The other caveat to these quarterbacks is Cousins may play so well that the Redskins are out of position to draft these guys even if they wanted to.  This list of alternative quarterbacks to Cousins should have Scot McCloughan holding a reverse telethon where he has all the people in the background calling Cousins's agent nonstop.  There are no clear alternatives that are better than Cousins at the moment, and Cousins will be the most sought after free agent quarterback in the offseason.  And for good reason because he has shown improvement over this season.

Cousins's Game Has Evolved Over the Course of the Season
Cousins's stats for the first 6 games of the season (record 2-4):
66.2% completion    1420 yards (237 y/g)    6 TD     8 INT

Cousins's stats the last 3 games:
71.4% completion    858 yards (286 y/g)     8 TD      1 INT

Small sample size for the last three, but suffice to say that Cousins has improved immensely over the last three games.  We will know more when Cousins has to go into Carolina and then come back to DC to face the Giants over Thanksgiving weekend, but there has been improvement over this season to warrant keeping Cousins here. 

Cousins Is the Leader
This is more of an arbitrary qualitative measure but look at what Cousins has done this season.  He has led two dramatic game winning drives, one game tying drive with 50 seconds left, he coined one super charged catch phrase, he would have kept pace with the Patriots if not for a parade of ineptitude, and he hung 47 points on a Saints team that pumped up the defense so much that it led to this exchange at the end of the game.  Imitation is the highest form of flattery, and in this case Chris Baker's action said more than his words.  It shows that the defense is on board with Cousins.  Winning helps that notion take hold, but over the last three games you have seen a concerted effort from the defense to give Kirk every chance to move the ball because he has proven that he has the ability to win games.  Cousins also boasts the fourth highest completion percentage in the league which keep his receivers happy and the offense on the field.  And when he is out there, especially the last three games, you just get this sense that he has command over this offense.  He has cut down on the turnovers, he rarely takes sacks (only Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played 9 or more games and been sacked less than Cousins), his accuracy has gone through the roof when teams know that his game is short to intermediate, and he has developed a passing report with numerous receivers. You just get the sense that something good is going to happen on every offensive possession, and that is not something we have felt in a while.

At this moment the price tag should be about a three to four year contract worth about 5-7 million per year.  If Cousins's agent is smart he will start a bidding war with the team, using his free agent status as leverage, and the contract may get extended longer and for more money.  My guess is that if the Redskins keep winning you could see a four to five year contract worth 10 million plus.  Well worth it for a fourth round pariah who was seen as a coach's hubris pick.  Now, Kirk Cousins is poised to lead the Redskins on a Divisional Championship run that could make him the hottest free agent this summer if the Redskins do not play their cards right.  Let's do the right thing and Keep KC in DC.

Redskins vs Patriots: "You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss"

Words of wisdom from Omar Little that the Redskins would be wise to heed tomorrow as they take the field in Foxboro for the first time in eight years; and we all remember what happened that day.  Not much has changed has changed since that fateful day. The Patriots still do what they do best: win.  The Redskins still do what they do best: play as inconsistently as possible to always keep a sense of hope within the fan base that will ultimately be crushed at the end of the season.  The pundits believe in these roles so much that they write headlines like these on their websites about this game.  And why shouldn't they?  The Patriots have trailed in only three games this season for a grand total of 36:58 of game time.  That means that the Patriots have been trailing for only 8% of their 2015 season, and the Patriots' home win/loss numbers with Tom Brady starting are even more staggering.  The last time Tom Brady lost at home was December 16, 2013 against the 49ers.  In fact, since Tom Brady became the starter in 2001 he has only lost 13 games at Gillette Stadium, and he has only lost three home game since 2010.  So everyone treating this game as an automatic win for the Patriots should rest easy.  If the Redskins plan on not making this game a laugher like the last one they must be better than they have been all season, and if they want to do what only three teams have done in Foxboro in the last five years they must not miss in any facet of the game.  It is a long shot, but here is how they could possibly shock the world.

The Guessing Game:  Question 1:  Who is the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL this season?  Obviously it is Kirk Cous......wait, what?  You're not hallucinating.  Kirk Cousins has only been sacked 8 times this season which is the second least amount of sacks in the NFL behind the Jets.  The Patriots' defense has 26 sacks this season which is good for second best in the league, so the Redskins will have their hands full protecting Cousins this week.  Question 2: Which team has allowed more passing yards this season?  That's right.  The Patriots have allowed 142 more passing yards this season than the Redskins, probably because they have been bludgeoning teams so bad that they have to throw the ball.  Question 3: Who is giving up more rushing yards per game this season?  Of course it is the Redskins.  Washington is giving up the third most rushing yards per game this season, which means that we may see a more run heavy attack from New England to start this game.  With no real threat being posed by the Redskins on paper, it may not be out of the question for the Pats to come out running to see if they can control the one part of the game where the Redskins have the advantage.

Time Is  The Only Thing On The Redskins' Side:  The Redskins' average offensive drive is lasting 25 seconds longer than the Patriots.  If the Redskins expect to be anywhere close to winning they must have that type of ball control though short passing and manageable down and keeping manageable down and distance.  Look for Cousins to be true to his league lowest yards per completion (9.3) and third lowest yards per attempt (6.5) numbers by throwing short passes to control the clock.  Short passes may also lull the Patriots into a false sense of security and allow the Redskins to go over the top.  If the Redskins cannot connect on a pass play longer than 30 yards we may be in trouble. And for all the criticism about the Redskins running woes, as long as they are getting positive yardage it is a good thing.  The Redskins must be going forward at all times and keep the distance for every down in the single digits while controlling the clock.  As long as the game is close, the Redskins should feed the ball to Morris and Jones at least 20 times combined considering that the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per attempt and have faced the third lowest number of rushing attempts so far this season due to their dominance. 

Patriots Dominance:  The Patriots are scoring on 55.6% of their drives this season and only turning the ball over on 3.7% of their drives which is best in the league for both stats.  They have the second best yards per play average in the league (6.3) and the third best yards per drive (35.9).  Oh, and they are averaging a league best 35.6 points per game.  All of this means that the Redskins will be going up against the best, and they need to play a boring, methodical, and perfect game to win.

This will be a battle to see if the Redskins can execute the short game and grind the Patriots down.  New England is scoring every other time they touch the ball, so the Redskins need to control the time of possession through short throws and hard fought runs.  Expect to see a lot of Pierre Garcon as he is the best receiver the Redskins have in tough short yardage situations, and watch for Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder to get a lot of looks in the short medium range.  Defensively they need to not miss chances.  They will not stop the Patriots offense, but when they get their chance to stop them on third down, get an interception, recover a fumble, get a sack, they must execute.  No fancy stats for the defense because if we go by stats the Redskins defense has no chance.  This game will be won on the words of Omar Little, and I'm going with a blind homer pick for this game.  Cousins is able to march the offense methodically down the field and the defense comes up with one big turnover that is the difference in the game.

Redskins win 28-27

Meet The Candidates for Maryland's Head Football Coaching Position

This weekend's loss at Iowa officially allowed Maryland fans to classify this season as a dumpster fire.  It took our leading receiver three catches to amass 18 yards, our leading rusher was our quarterback, and it took another Will Likely special teams return to make the score look more respectable than it really was.  This was the latest installment of an offense that ranks 110th in the nation in average yards per game, 113th in passing yards per game, and dead last in turnover margin and interceptions thrown.  These numbers should have the Kevins (Anderson and Plank) looking to hire a coach who is going to give a shot in the arm to the side of the ball that puts the proverbial butts in the seats.  So here is a review of the candidates SweetDCSports believes the Kevins are looking at to skipper The USS Turtle Tears out of troubled waters in 2016 starting with the current steward of the throne.

Mike Locksley

I'm sure the Kevins are having a long and hard discussion about whether or not to hire Locksley as their head coach.  And why not?  He has brought top level talent from the DC area to every school he has coached, and he revitalized the perception that Maryland cannot recruit when he was rehired in 2011 and promptly landed top level recruits like Stefon Diggs.  The problem has been in talent development, especially at the quarterback position.  Under Locksley's tenure the Terps ran Danny O'Brien out of town a year after he was named the ACC Freshman of the Year.  C.J. Brown was a dual threat helped out by a slew of medical redshirts and Stefon Diggs not leaving after his sophomore season.  And now it falls to the Locksley recruited Perry Hills who has thrown 10 interceptions in 5 games this season.  There has not been a lot of growth from the quarterbacks position under a guy whose title is offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach, and Shane Cockerille's move from QB to fullback should give the Kevins pause about what they can expect from Dwayne Haskins if Locksley is allowed to continue as head coach.  In my mind they should be looking elsewhere, but Locksley will be a strong candidate until the end due to his ability to recruit and his ties to the DC area.

With that out of the way, here are the head coaches who the Kevins should be desperately seeking:

Matt Rhule (Temple)

I must admit that I was unaware of Temple's rapid rise to college football relevance until this past weekend.  Now, everyone knows Matt Rhule's name as he is on the short list for every coaching job East of the Mississippi regardless of whether that position is vacant or not.  The Kevins should be taking a long hard look at this guy because he possesses a lot of qualities they desire.  First, he is a reported hands on recruiter with a pension for details.  He was able to land the second best recruiting class in the AAC after winning only two games his first season.  Second, he is a noted players coach who has had experience at all levels of football.  He is active in social media, and he was the offensive line coach for the Giants before taking the Temple position in 2012.  Finally, he is a young coach who played in the Big 10, he has Under Armour ties (Temple is sponsored by Under Armour), he has placed Temple in the Top 25, and he came within two minutes of defeating a Top 10 Notre Dame team.  The negatives are there.  Temple's offensive yardage per game is worse than Maryland's.  Temple plays in a weaker conference, which could account for their defense being ranked 28th in the country.  And we recently saw the Temple Project Part 1 starring Al Golden come to an inglorious end in Miami.  Despite these shortcomings, Rhule should be getting daily calls from the Kevins about coming to College Park.

Matt Campbell (Toledo)

The second youngest FBS coach at 35 years old, Campbell has done an amazing job at Toledo in only a short period of time.  He is 33-13 in his three plus seasons at Toledo, and the Rockets are 7-0 this season on the backs of a relatively balanced team that is ranked 24th in total offense and 51st in total defense.  Some may point to Campbell's emphasis on discipline and manners as being a younger version of Randy Edsall, but the Kevins should at least throw a line in Campbell's direction.  Campbell is described as a relentless competitor who is straightforward in his personal approach with players and who knows the type of players he wants to recruit for each position.  Campbell developed his notion of an offensive system after studying Urban Meyer's spread offense as a graduate assistant at Bowling Green.  Maybe his old offensive coordinator at Bowling Green, Greg Studrawa, could convince him to finally leave the state of Ohio seeing is how Studrawa is the current offensive line coach at Maryland.  The Kevins should use that leverage, along with Toledo being outfitted by Under Armour, to gauge Campbell's interest in coming further east but buyer beware.  Campbell has vehemently expressed his desire to build the Toledo program further, and he has no coaching experience outside of the state of Ohio or outside of any conference bigger than the MAC.  He was turned off by his experience as a freshman at Pitt, so while his success in the MAC is tantalizing he may not be ready for the rigors of what the Kevins are expecting the new head coach to bring to Maryland.  Campbell is still an intriguing candidate and he should be worth a look.

Justin Fuente (Memphis)
Fuente may be more of a longshot for Maryland, but he definitely has the highest pedigree of the three.  The mastermind behind TCU's air raid offense and Andy Dalton's rise to stardom, he parlayed his success as TCU's offensive coordinator into a head coaching position for a 2-10 Memphis team.  Fuente has since turned Memphis into an 8-0 team that finds itself ranked 13th in the College Football Playoff Ranking and 6th in total offense in the country.  What is more impressive than these results is the way Fuente was able to accomplish these feats at a school that was a college football backwater located at the confluence of Big 10, Big 12, and SEC recruiting grounds.  Fuente weathered the storm in his first two seasons as the Tigers won only seven games while he tried to bring in the right personnel to run his air raid scheme.  His patience and determination paid off with a 10-3 record last season and a flawless campaign so far this season.  Some will point to the luck involved in Memphis's success this season as their star QB was mostly overlooked coming out of high school.  Others will say that Fuente's recruitment of Paxton Lynch is a sign of his ability to know what type of players will fit his offense.  Whatever it is, the Kevins will need to drive a hard bargain as South Carolina and Miami sound like more suitable places for a coach from Big 12 country that has not had any football experience north of Kentucky.  Fuente has also has seen what happens to coaches who like to run spread offenses in the Big 10 (see Rich Rodriguez at Michigan).  But Maryland's new Cole Field House renovations coupled with some financial convincing and Maryland being below the Mason-Dixon Line may get Fuente to give Maryland a second look. 

Honorable mention goes to Bowling Green's Dino Babers.  Maryland got a first hand look at what Babers can do as they were on the business end of Bowling Green's spread offense this season.  Babers is on the older side at 54, but if all else fails it may not be a huge loss to take a flyer on an older guy who is a prodigy of Art Briles.  And yes, if Chip Kelly can be got we should not blink at the opportunity to get him.  But looking at the three candidates listed above, I think Rhule would be the number one option even over Chip Kelly.  A seasoned veteran from Pennsylvania who is a players coach and has a passion to win and recruit.  My vote is for Rhule if we can get him.

Redskins vs. Buccanneers: "You Like That?"

The three words that will be heard around the DC area, and define the current state of the Redskins season, for at least the next 36-48 hours.  Kirk Cousins's showing of emotion after the biggest comeback win in Redskins history was as appropriate as it was a little corny with his voice cracking the second time he said it.  But his charged up rhetoric put an exclamation point on the statement that the Redskins and Cousins made on the field against the Buccaneers on Sunday.  This team has what it takes.  This team has the ability to win the game by imposing their will rather than relying on timely turnovers by the other team.  This team has the guts to go for a 4th and 2 at midfield with two minutes left before halftime, and call an onside kick in the middle of the third quarter knowing that if they don't get it they give the ball and momentum back to the other team.  They have the fortitude to not give up at the five yard line after a 49 yard run that put the Bucs in almost guaranteed touchdown territory.  Finally, and most importantly, this team has a quarterback that has developed the mental fortitude to win in high pressure situations. 

This mental fortitude was the most important thing that he needed to work on this offseason, and while the Jets game showed that Cousins can still throw a good old fashioned Kirk Cousins interception party, he has also shown the ability to perform in high pressure situations.  He has won two games this season in the last minute, where he led long 2 minute drives that ended with him throwing the winning touchdown.  He got the Atlanta game to overtime with only 50 seconds left in regulation, and he had the offense humming in OT until he threw the game ending pick six.  Cousins has proven that he can be a competent NFL quarterback over the first seven games of this season, and that he is making strides in improving his play.  The real test will be coming up after the bye week when he must continue his improvement at New England, home against the Saints, and at Carolina.  What he has done now with this win, however, is given the Redskins a new chance at the season.

Hopefully the Redskins will be going into Foxboro two weeks from now with a healthy Desean Jackson and a game plan that reflects the threat that he poses.  That would not mean much if the Redskins were blown out by the Buccaneers, but this comeback win should galvanize the Redskins resolve.  The NFC East is wide open, and this win keeps them in the mix for a possible playoff spot given one of their biggest offensive weapons has been absent all season.  Redskins fans must also accept the fact, however, that there is a good chance that 5 weeks from now we could be 3-8 and going over all the talking points that were hashed out this past week after the loss to the Jets.  Then again, there is a chance we could be 7-4.  Whatever the outcome over the next month may be, what Cousins and the Redskins have done this week is show that they are ready for whatever comes at them, and they have turned a tepid plea for evaluation into an irreverent rhetorical question.  "You Like That?".

Redskins vs. Jets: Cousins Needs to Prove His Worth

Kirk Cousins needs to prove to the Redskins that he can win big games against winning teams on the road.  The past two weeks he has shown that he can engineer late drive that put the Redskins in a position to win the game, but he also showed his penchant for throwing soul crushing interceptions at critical points in the game that left HTTR nation staring at their TV's for the next hour in catatonic disbelief.  Kirk Cousins also needs to prove to the Jets that maybe he was worth more than they thought when they inquired about a trade earlier this season after they realized that their quarterback was just as bad at debt collection as he was throwing fade routes.  It will not be an easy task this week as Cousins goes up against a stingy Jets defense that is only giving up 280 yards and a league best 13.8 points per game so far this season.  The Jets offense, however, is not over imposing as a team and they benefit from a defense that puts them in advantageous positions.  If the Redskins can execute on both sides of the ball they stand a very good chance at putting themselves in coin flip game that may come down to another Kirk Cousins last minute drive.  It all starts with field position.

You know where it ends.  It depends on where you start:  When looking at the offensive stats between these two teams, it seems as if they would be evenly matched.  They have nearly identical yards per passing attempt (6.6 WAS/6.4 NY), yards per completion (9.7/10.5), net yards per passing attempt (6.2 for both), yards per rushing attempt (4.1/4.2), and they are both scoring on 33.3% of their drives.  So what is the explanation for the Jets averaging almost 5 points more per game than the Redskins when the Jets average less time of possession per drive, less plays per drive, and less yards per drive than the Redskins?  The answer is field position.  The Jets average starting field position is their own 33.2 yard line, which is second best in the league and almost ten yards more than the Redskins.  This number is bolstered by the Jets' defense forcing 13 turnovers so far this season, so if the Redskins plan on staying close they need to win the field position battle by limiting turnovers and getting a big day from Tress Way and the punt coverage team.  They need to give Ryan Fitzpatrick a long field to work with in order to test his ability to sustain longer drives, and put him in passing situations to allow the Redskins to do something that not many of the Jets' previous opponents have done.

Get to Ryan Fitzpatrick:  It may not have occurred to anyone, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has only been sacked twice this season. Twice in four games.  It helps that the Jets have faced the two teams with the lowest sack totals in the league (Indianapolis 6, Miami 1), but the Browns and Eagles have similar sack totals to the Redskins.  If the Redskins plan on controlling field position and limiting the offensive success of the Jets they need to put Ryan Fitzpatrick under assault.  The Redskins front seven needs to get pressure on Fitzpatrick so as to not allow Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to have big days against a depleted Redskins secondary.  If the Redskins defense cannot get two or more sacks and hurry Fitzpatrick's throws we may see some long sustained drives from the Jets because...

Chis Ivory Has Been Reborn: Ivory was an afterthought in New Orleans, but his move to the north has been nothing short of miraculous.  Ivory is averaging 104 yards per game, which is tied for best in the league, and he is averaging 5.0 yards per attempt.  This is not good for a Redskins defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per attempt this season, and who could be spread out if Fitzpatrick is allowed to stretch the field with Brandon Marshall.  Containing Chris Ivory will be contingent upon whether or not the Redskins can hurry Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it will be easier on Fitzpatrick if Ivory can go for his average yards per attempt every time he touches the ball.  The Giants showed that the Redskins can be vulnerable to a committed running game, and the Redskins need to be ready for a heavy does of Chris Ivory.  The Redskins need to respond in kind, but with a different focus with their running backs.

Trust the Short Game:  The Redskins offense needs to trust in their ability to get small chunks of yards that put them in manageable down and distances.  The Jets' defense is only giving up 4.5 yards per pass, 3.8 yards per run, a 16.3% scoring average, and a 24.5% turnover average.  This means they are not giving up big plays, not allowing the other team to score often, and turning them over at a high clip.  The Redskins need to understand that they will be in a lot of third downs, so they need to rely on short runs and screens to make those third downs manageable.  Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder need to have big days in the short passing game, and with Matt Jones's health being a questions mark they need Alfred Morris to fall forward and get positive yardage.  Finally, they need to hit on their home run balls.  Rashad Ross showed that he can be a valuable deep threat last week drawing a crucial pas interference call.  The Redskins will need to take their shots, and Ross should see at least two deep balls thrown his way to keep the short game viable.

At best this will be a coin flip game if the Redskins are able to execute.  If they turn the ball over, muff punts, and allow the Jets to have favorable field position it could turn into another day like the last one they had in the Meadowlands.  But if Cousins can show that he may be worth at least what the Redskins gave up for him, he could once again prove that the Redskins may have made the right choice in turning down the Jets' offer.  I still think that the Jets' defense will prove too much for Sean McVay's scheme, Ivory will give the Redskins front seven fits, and the Redskins will commit an untimely turnover that swings the balance of the game late.

24-13 Redskins Lose

Redskins vs. Falcons: Are the Redskins or Falcons For Real?

Will the Redskins be able to methodically move the ball in order to score and keep Matt Ryan off the field?  Or, will Matt Ryan be able to rain down 20-30 yard passes against a depleted Redskins secondary in order to win the game?  Does any of this even matter?  It does matter when you consider that two of the three touchdowns the Redskins gave up last week were on passes of 30 yards or more, and now they have to play against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  It matters when the Falcons give up less running yards per offensive possession than the Redskins' previous foe; The Philadelphia Eagles.  It all matters when the game on paper looks like an air raid conducted with impunity by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones that will crush any hopes of this season being anything but salvageable for the Redskins.  It is easy to point to a depleted Redskins secondary to state the keys of the game, but that does not mean that it is the wrong answer.  The Redskins will need to find an answer for the likes of Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and their old pal Leonard Hankerson in order to limit the amount of big plays the Falcons are able to convert against their defense.  The Falcons will need to get the Redskins off of the field on third down, and clog up the short to mid range passing lanes in order to fluster Kirk Cousins into one of his patented 3rd quarter, back breaking, interceptions.  The subtleties of this game are far deeper, and the Redskins would be wise to learn from these outlines in order to be successful on Sunday.   

Scoring when we get inside the Atlanta 30 yard line: Any scoring will do.  The Redskins are only scoring on 32% of their drives as opposed to Falcons scoring on 45% of their drives.  If the Redskins expect to win against a team that outscores them 34-19 on average this season they need to get points whenever they cross the Falcons 30 yard line.  Touchdowns are preferable, but field goals will serve their purpose.  The Redskins just need to show that they can score on every possession and put the pressure on the Falcons to do the same.  Take a lesson from the Giants game on Thursday Night, and see how field goals can be integral to success.  Dustin Hopkins needs be perfect in order for the Redskins to win the game.  One missed kick (field goal or extra point) will cost them the game against a team that has the ability to score quickly against a depleted secondary.  This scoring will do no good, however, if the Redskins cannot continue their time of possession dominance and limit the Falcons chances at scoring.

Get Yards the Hard Way: Running the ball will be the Redskins best friend.  Atlanta's defense has faced the second least amount of rushing attempts in the league this season (77), and they are giving up the eighth most yards per rushing attempt (4.4).  The Redskins are averaging the third best yards per attempt average in the league (4.4), and they are averaging the most rushing yards per game (139.5).  They also showed versatility within the running game last week with the emergence of Chris Thompson.  Thompson gives their running game and added dynamic of speed and catching ability out of the backfield, and if the Falcons are unable to shut down one of these running backs it could be a field day for the Redskins running attack.  They should run the ball at least 30 times in order to control the clock, put themselves in manageable down and distances, and to test a Falcons defense that has not been run on heavily over the first three games.  As much as I love Alfred Morris because he is on my fantasy team, I see Matt Jones getting a bigger workload this week in order to show the Falcons some breakaway speed between the tackles. Chris Thompson should also see between 5-10 carries in order to set up screen passes on third down.  Expect to see one Thompson screen pass go for over 20 yards in this game.  Running the ball will limit the Falcons's possessions, but the Redskins cannot hold onto the ball forever.  The defense will need to step up in big situations.

The Most Dangerous Receivers Do Not Wear #11: Julio Jones will get his. There should be no analysis on what to do about him because you know he is going to get the yardage if a pass can be thrown to him.  The Redskins need to make sure that they can put as many people on Jones as possible by stopping Leonard Hankerson and Devonta Freeman in the passing game.  Hankerson has benefitted from Jones taking the pressure off of him and allowing him to go for 14.2 yards per reception so far this season, which is a better average than Julio Jones. Freeman has just as many receptions as Hankerson, and the Falcons will look to keep the linebackers and safeties looking for the short pass in order to open up deep routes for Julio Jones. The Redskins need to find a way to marginalize these two receiving threats in order to put more of their energy in stopping Julio Jones.  If Hankerson and Freeman go for more than 120 combined receiving yards it shows that the Redskins are unable to stop the Falcons secondary passing attack, and that they will be relying on Kirk Cousins to once again engineer a magnificent performance. 

Need Another Big Day From Cousins and Linebackers: Who has given up the fourth most passing yards in the league so far this year?  That's right. It's the Falcons.  And those yards have come in 175 attempts with a 65% completion rate and averaging 305 yards per game.  Those numbers are not outrageous, but it shows that this team can be thrown on.  Look for Cousins to have another efficient game if we want to win, and look for an increased role for Rashad Ross to burn downfield in order to open up the intermediate passing lanes.  The linebackers also need a big day getting to Matt Ryan and containing Devonta Freeman.  Murphy and Kerrigan need to flash some lateral speed in the flat, while splicing in some rushes that force Matt Ryan to move his feet in the pocket.  Preston Smith should see an increased workload in order to provide more speed on the outside, and don't be surprised if you hear Jackson Jeffcoat's name called more than once in celebration of a big play.  Anything less than 300 yards passing and no sacks spells doom for the Redskins.

The recipe for success against the Falcons is that they need to be challenged on the ground so we can hold the ball, and then hope that Julio Jones shows mercy.  Cousins also needs to show that he can string together two good performances in a row and win on the road.  The Redskins have not met a matchup as hard as this one, but neither have the Falcons.  Ultimately, I see The Falcons home field advantage being too strong for the Redskins to overcome this week in Atlanta.

24-21 Redskins lose.

The University of Under Armour Needs a New Coach

Randy Edsall just didn't cut it.  He didn't cut it from the moment he was announced as the head coach in 2011 and everyone had to Google his name to figure out who he was.  Instead of Mike Leach locking players in cramped spaces and running ridiculous offensive spread sets that would turn Byrd Stadium into a track meet facility; we got Randy Edsall.  Edsall was a tepid choice at best, especially when the recently hired Kevin Anderson canned a beloved alumnus to hire a guy whose persona and football style catered to a demographic that was old enough to remember D-Day.  Leach was the choice that moved the needle, but in 2011 Anderson was more concerned with image rather than ticket sales and not thinking about who paid the bills around the University of Maryland's Athletic Department.  With Edsall looking to be on the outs as early as next week, Kevin Plank will be reminding Mr. Anderson that he has a large emotional and financial stake in the hiring of the new coach based on what Under Armour has done for the University of Maryland.

The New York Times puts all of this in perspective in one great article written in August of this year.  Kevin Plank, whether implicitly or explicitly, want Maryland to be Oregon East.  He wants to make his alma mater the athletic Mecca that will attract athletes and innovators in the field of athletics to College Park for decades to come.  He wants Lord Baltimore's coat of arms to be worn around the country so that The University of Maryland will be synonymous with winning in a cool way.  He wants this so long as all of this comes with an Under Armour logo on the side.  He has proven this by putting up $25 million "gift" for the new Cole Field House renovations that will create the premier athletic research and training facility in the country.  The article also states that Under Armour extended their contract with Maryland that pays the University $33 million in cash and apparel, and Plank has been noted to test new apparel out with the Maryland football team.  And then there is this beautiful nugget from the article that explains it all:

Mr. Plank’s influence at Maryland does not extend to the hiring and firing of coaches, according to Maryland and Under Armour officials. But he is not a passive check-writing machine. Mr. Anderson said his interview process, which culminated with his hiring as the athletic director in 2010, included an interview with Mr. Plank.  

This is a nice way of saying that Kevin Plank works behind the scenes.  It is the old adage, "If I'm not in the room to see Kevin Plank or Under Armour involved in the hiring of coaches/development of the athletic budget/recruitment of athletes, then it never really happened, right?"  This is not to say that it actually happens.  I have no proof of that.  But suffice to say that Plank and Under Armour's financial influence within the University of Maryland's Athletic Department has grown exponentially since Edsall's hiring in 2011, and they are expecting returns on their investments that Edsall was not meeting.  Forget the reports that state the players were tuning him out and look to the more important fact that attendance has been going down this year to the tune of 13% lower than last year.  Kevin Plank cannot have another ho-hum pick at head coach and luckily there is one right up I-95.

Chip Kelly.  Everyone says it is crazy, but Kevin Plank should be loading up dump trucks full of money to send to Chip Kelly's house right now.  His hiring would set College Park on fire, and it is not too far fetched to think he may come given a Godfather like package.  His position in Philly is tenuous at best and his reputation was made in the college ranks.  He would not have to move far, and he would be set in a fertile recruiting area with the full backing of the University, Kevin Plank, and Under Armour.  Kelly could also have the chance to prove himself against the likes of fellow spread offense aficionado Urban Meyer and resident Big 10 Golden Boy Jim Harbaugh.  There are downsides to Kelly coming here, and it may cost a pretty penny for him to leave the Eagles, but 2011 showed that the safe hire gets you safe results and Kevin Plank is not shelling out $33 million per year to go 7-6.  It has to be Chip Kelly, if for no other reason than he will electrify the boosters and fan base in a way Randy Edsall never did. Edsall was hired for the University of Maryland's image. Chip Kelly will be hired for one thing and one thing only.  To win for the University of Under Armour.

Redskins vs. Eagles: Redskins Must Not Revive Another Nemesis's Season

Do you know what nemesis means? One of the Redskins' nemeses got theirs last Thursday night as the Redskins began to fill their obligatory annual quota of bad losses in big situations that revive the other team's season.  The Redskins gave a reprieve to another floundering Giants team last Thursday night and breathed life into their otherwise pathetic season.  We will see if that win means anything to the Giants, but after a week of high hopes and nickname contests for the Redskins running back tandem HTTR nation was brought back down to Earth after the loss to the Giants.  Now all the cynicism and insecurities have been running rampant for the last 10 days as another nemesis comes to town looking for a little pick me up for their season.  The Eagles offense finally came through last week, and they look to a Redskins team in limbo and a soggy FedEx Field to resuscitate their chances at an NFC East title.  The Redskins were too happy to oblige the Giants when they were in dire need of a win, and the Eagles present a style of play that could wreak havoc on an injury ridden Redskins team. The weather will also produce challenges of its own, but the Redskins must trust in their system and know that the Eagles' flaws are gaping and could be exploited to great effect.  The keys to this game are as follows:

Let Sam Bradford Throw The Ball:  Just do not let the Eagles running attack get going.  The Eagles win last week was predicated on Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles running for 123 yards last week and taking the pressure off of Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing offense that has been statistically abysmal this season.  They are tied for last in the league in yards per completion (9.3) and longest completion (32 yards), and they are next to last in yards per attempt (5.8).  Couple that with an offense that has the worst average time per drive (1:48), the lowest average yards per drive (21.4), and scores on only 22.5% of their offensive drives (second worst percentage in the league), and you see that the Eagles rushing attack was their savior last week by lengthening drives and allowing Bradford's short passing game to be effective.  Bradford is not throwing the ball far, but he can be effective if given short down and distances and a depleted secondary to throw against.  He will get the latter on Sunday as the Redskins will probably be missing their top two cornerbacks in Chris Culliver and DeAngelo Hall.  What the Redskins need to do is win the yardage battle on first down, contain the Eagles running attack, and support a depleted secondary by blitzing selectively.  If the Redskins become too blitz happy it may give Bradford easy pre-snap reads and the ability to catch them overcommitting against the run.  The Redskins defense should drop back to cover the medium to short passing routes and not leave their young corners on an island.  They will also need a big push from the defensive line to control the running game.  If Matthews and Sproles are able to do what the Giants did and put the Redskins defense in short third downs it may be a long day for the Redskins defense.

Limit the Eagles' Opportunities:  Sproles returned a punt last week, and the Eagles were also able to get a touchdown off of a Brandon Marshall fumble that gave them a short field to work with.  This allowed them to go up big on the Jets.  Special teams returns and turnovers are something that the Redskins may have a tough time avoiding, and it has nothing to do with Cousins's penchant for throwing interceptions. The Eagles Defense is forcing a turnover in one out of every five offensive possessions they face this season, which is third best in the league. They have only turned two of those turnovers into points, but in a game that could be a monsoon it does not bode well for the Redskins who have an interception prone quarterback, a rookie running back with a history of ball control issues, and a special teams unit that is just itching to give up a game breaking return.  Both offense and special teams need to be sharp if they are to limit big plays and execute the final key to success.

Ball Control/Cousins Bounce Back:  Cousins had a bad game last week, but he has shown better resiliency this season in coming back from mistakes within the game.  He will need to show that he can come back from game to game because the Redskins Offense faces another stout run defense.  The Eagles run defense is allowing the lowest yards per attempt in the league (3.1), and with the Redskins' offensive line possibly being without Morgan Moses, Kory Lichtensteiger, and Josh LeRibeus it could be another long day for the Redskins running attack.  Cousins will need to prove that he can throw the ball effectively and efficiently to take pressure off of the running game.  Jordan Reed is an easy person to mark as needing to have a big game, but also look for Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson to turn short passes into big gains with their legs that could keep the Eagles defense honest if they begin to crowd the line of scrimmage.  Jones and Morris should be given the ball early to give the Redskins favorable down and distance, but they also need to make sure they get positive yardage to give Cousins a chance to extend drives.  Chip K
elly's offense runs at a quick pace, and if the Redskins Defense is out there for too long they become more susceptible to big plays.  The Redskins need to run the ball over 25 times for at least 80 yards to be successful.  Anything less means they are not controlling the clock, Cousins is having to throw more, and the Redskins will not come out on top. 

This could be Thursday Night all over again.  Philly has the ability to stop the Redskins running attack and force Kirk Cousins into doing what he does best; throwing untimely interceptions. They also have the up-tempo offense needed to put the Redskins in a hole that will force them to throw if they get down by a fair margin.  The Eagles, though, have shown the ability to have crappy drives that give the ball back on downs.  The Redskins need to force Bradford to make decisions after the snap by dropping into coverage, and they need to control the ball with positive runs, accurate passes, and a little speed here and there from the likes of Thompson and Crowder.  This is going to be an ugly one, but all the Redskins need is a win and they will get it.

20-17 Redskins Win.

Redskins vs. Giants: Into the Heart of Darkness

 When the Redskins walk into The Meadowlands on Thursday they will be entering a place that has haunted them for years.  Since 2000 the Redskins are 4-11 against the Giants in East Rutherford and they have been outscored 291-187 in those fifteen games.  The Redskins will also literally walk into darkness as they play at night, where they are 5-14 since 2000 in either Monday or Thursday Night games.  But alas Jay Gruden has espoused the mantra of a New Day for this Redskins team. The St. Louis game gave the fan base cause to buy into this notion, and the win against the Rams also forced the pundits of the world to come up with a better argument than condescending laughter to the notion that the Redskins can contend in the NFC East.  With the way the Giants have been playing it should not be outright lunacy to think that the Redskins can go on the road with their new found sense of grandeur and come out with a win that could cripple one of their challengers to the aforementioned division title.  But if 2007 taught us anything it is that the Eli Manning led Giants respond well to adversity, and they find themselves in the same position as in 2007; 0-2 and facing the Redskins.  If Washington expects to win in the Meadowlands for the first time since 2011 they will need to show that the Rams game was not a fluke, and the focus of this game plan should be on one man.

Kirk Cousins Needs to Drive the Offense:  This may sound crazy based on the way the Redskins have been able to run the ball the past two weeks, but the game plan should be focused on giving Cousins opportunities to move the offense.  Matt Jones and Alfred Morris are the best running tandem in the league, but it may surprise you that the Giants run defense has only given up 136 yards rushing and allows only 3 yards per rushing attempt.  The Giants know this and may take the advice of almost every talking head and load the box in order to try and stop the Redskins running attack.  If this is the case, and one can almost assume the Giants will at least try this, it means that Cousins will have to take control of this offense in order to keep drives moving on a defense that has given up 702 passing yards so far this season.  Those yards were given up to pass happy teams, but the Redskins may need to show that they can get a little pass happy in order to take pressure off of the run game.  Cousins already sports the fourth best completion percentage in the league (75.9%) and half of his completions have gone for first downs.  This means that he is asked to throw the ball in pressure situations in order to keep drives moving and he delivers in those situations more often than not.  This game will challenge Cousins to be more than a situational passer by seeing if he can make mid to long distance throws in order move the ball, and Sean McVay must give Cousins a game plan that allows him to throw the ball downfield.  Cousins will need to throw for over 250 yards if the Redskins expect to win in a game with less than 2 Giants turnovers.  Which brings us to the defense.

Secondary Needs to be on High Alert: The Redskins number one ranked defense may have benefitted from the fact that they did not have to face a top tier receiver the past two weeks.  They will Thursday when they face Odell Beckham, and he is the difference in an otherwise pedestrian passing game.  Eli Manning has a lower completion percentage, yards per attempt average, passing attempts, and passing yards than Ryan Tannehill so far this season so one begins to ask why should this week be any different than the past two for the Redskins secondary.  The answer is Odell Beckham.  He opened up last week and showed he can be a threat to score or get big chunks of yardage on every play.  The secondary must find a way to limit his big play ability, and keep his average under 15 yards per reception.  Aside from his 67 yard touchdown last week, Beckham averaged 11 yards per reception so anything over 15 yards per reception means Beckham is going for big catches that will lead the Giants to victory.  The secondary also needs to be on high alert for runs to the outside, and play action off of those runs.  The Rams were able to get the most yards on the ground from jet sweeps and runs away from the middle, and their touchdown was scored on a fake jet sweep that caught the corner looking in the backfield with no safety help.  You can bet the Giants will try to set the edges and test how physical the corners really are, and don't think they haven't noticed that the Redskins defense really has not been tested this year in the run game.  The Redskins have the lowest amount of rushing attempts against them in the league yet they give up the seventh highest yards per attempt.  Expect Culliver, Hall, and Breeland to be busy in both run and pass defense as the Giants try to favor the outside runs early to set up the Redskins cornerbacks for big plays later on. 

Unstoppable Force Meets an Immovable Object: The one area where the Giants stand out statistically is in the efficiency of their offensive drives, and it may be the key to this game.  The Giants have scored on 45% of their drives and average about 6.6 plays per drive.  The Redskins defense, however, has allowed teams to score on only 19.6% of their drives with an average of 4.9 plays per drive.  Something has to give.  Either the Redskins stymie The Giants' offense and allow their offense to have a chance to operate their brutal running assault with impunity, or the Giants field goal themselves into a position to hit Beckham on a long touchdown late in the game that forces the Redskins to abandon their run heavy approach.  Limiting turnovers and big plays will be the key to winning this nerdy stat game. 

This has the makings of a game that has an outcome that no one saw coming.  The Redskins' running game could be shut down to the point where Kirk Cousins needs to make plays on a regular basis and have a respectable NFL stat line.  The Giants could come out running the ball to test the Redskins defense in order to open up things for Odell Beckham and keep the Redskins defense on the field longer than they have been all season.  All of these will be attempted, but Morris and Jones do their best vintage Joker impression and show the Giants who the new beasts of the east are:


Score: 27-20 Redskins win.

Redskins vs. Rams: Whose Afraid of the St. Louis Rams?

This is a fair question to ask.  What makes the St. Louis Rams so special that the Redskins need to put on brown pants to hide their fear from the viewing public?  Could it be because the Rams are 6-2 against the Redskins since 2005?  Could it be their mauling defense that has five first round picks in their front seven?  Is it because the Redskins feel some sense of buyers remorse for the RG3 trade? Whatever the reason may be, if you absorb the main stream sports media you would think that the '85 Bears were coming to FedEx Field on Sunday.  While the Rams have a good defense they are not without their flaws, but so are the Redskins, so it will take some semblance of game plan and coaching that the Jay Gruden led Redskins have yet to show over the past 17 games.  While the media seems caught up with sack numbers (the Rams' defensive lineman combined for 22.5 sacks last season and combined for another 5 against the Seahawks in Week 1) and cute monikers (The
Rams are the most physical/nasty/competitive 6-10 team you will ever meet) the Redskins should be looking at their personnel and saying, "F these guys.  We are just as tough as they are and here's how we are going to ball control our way to winning this game."

Big Receivers = Big Game: Pierre Garcon and/or Jordan Reed (if healthy) need to be the focal points of a ball control offensive plan that relies on possession receiving first.  The Rams lost five of seven games last season when they allowed a receiver who was over 6'0" tall and weighed more than 200 pounds to go over 80 yards receiving.  Garcon and Reed both fit this bill, and their possession skills need to be in full effect if the Redskins expect to win.  If Garcon or Reed can go for eighty plus yards with a 7-9 yard per catch average it means the Redskins are taking longer drives that are looking to keep the St. Louis offense off the field.  It is not out of the question either.  The Rams' intimidating sack numbers from last year look less intimidating when you consider that Miami had a lower Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (6.2) than the Rams (6.7) last season.  A breakdown of those averages shows that the Rams had only one more sack than the Ndamunkong Suh-less Dolphins and still gave up over 300 yards more in passing on only three more passing attempts than Miami last season.  Within that difference in attempts the Rams also allowed 30 more completions that the Dolphins, so the Rams showed they can be susceptible to a possession style passing game but it will only be effective if two things occur.

Positive Running/Long Passing: Alfred Morris silenced all the Matt Jones trumpets last week by proving he is one of the best running backs in the NFL at getting positive yardage in tight spaces.  He is not the type of back who will hit the hole and take it 60 yards to the house, but he has the agility and vision to go for four or more on every single carry.  The Redskins need to take advantage of that by putting themselves in 2nd or 3rd and less than 7 situations more often than not so they can exploit those plays for long pass gambles.  No Desean Jackson means that it is time for Jamison Crowder, Rashad Ross, or Ryan Grant to prove they are good for at least one big pass play per game from the slot.  My money is on Ross who looks to have the best speed of the three, and deserves a legitimate shot at being the short term replacement for Jackson as the resident burner for the Redskins' receiving corps.  Either way, the Redskins will win this game if they can complete a pass play of 40 yards or more at least once and if they can manage the down and distance on each drive by running Morris 20 times or more.  Whatever the case may be, it will be for naught if the Redskins' defense cannot wake up from the...........

Nightmare of Tight End Seem Routes, Running Back Screens, and Special Team Returns:  The two leading receivers for the Rams last week were tight end Jared Cook and running back Benjamin Cunningham.  Those two positions have given the Redskins defense fits in the past, and if they want to win on Sunday they need to limit the production of at least one of them. Quick.  Name the leading wide receiver in receiving yardage from last week.  I know you fantasy degenerates picked up Tavon Austin this week, but it was actually Stedman Bailey who led the Rams' wide receivers in receiving yards.  We need to limit Cook and Cunningham in the passing game and force the Rams receivers to beat us.  And since Tavon Austin already returned a punt for a touchdown last week, you can believe he is licking his chops against the Redskins.  No TD's allowed by the special teams will mean a win for them, even if a return is stopped at the one yard line it means the Special Teams did not give up a touchdown.  What would be even better is for the special teams to actually learn from their mistakes and not give up big returns.  If the Redskins defense cannot contain the non wide receivers in the passing game, or Austin has a big day on punt returns, it may be hard to vanquish the Rams.

So who is afraid of the St. Louis Rams?  The Redskins shouldn't be.  The Rams should not be taken lightly, but statistically their defense is not any better than Miami.  If Washington can get a possession game going with a combination of Garcon, Reed, and Morris while getting one or two big plays and containing the Rams' running back and tight ends, we may be sitting at 1-1 going into New York next week.

The Nationals Need to Give Harvey What He Wants

The Nationals find themselves in as advantageous a position as they could have hoped for leading up to their three game series with the Mets.  They are four games back, their bats have come to life, and they seem to be playing at the level everyone expected them to be at all season long.  What is even better is that the Mets seem to be cooling off and possibly imploding right before our eyes with Matt Harvey's arbitrary innings limit that he failed to notify anyone of until about two days ago.  But don't worry Mets fans, he will pitch in the playoffs. If he can get there.  What the Nationals need to do is post this article around the locker room as fodder for merciless ridicule and to arouse visceral motivation that leads them to granting Harvey his 180 innings limit. The Nationals need to say things like, "This is the guy who compared himself to Batman because of how tough he was?" and "Are we going to let a team led by a guy who pulls this kind of crap take our division title away from us?".  The Nationals are as metaphorically close to the NL East lead as they have been since they were swept by the Mets in a three game series at the end of July that precipitated the Mets' rise to power.  Now, the man who led off on the mound in that series could be the undoing of his franchise's playoff hopes if the Nationals can channel some late season magic.

It seems that both franchises are coming to a Frostinian fork in the road.  The Nationals looked all but dead as they could not take advantage of the Mets' miscues in August and let the Mets' lead perpetually stay at six games.  The Nationals now find themselves only four games back, with their closer calling out their fans' passion and an opportunity to have a 1 in 23 chance of pulling even with the Mets if all goes to plan between now and Wednesday evening.  After the Mets swept the Nats in that three game series they went 16-6, and it seemed as if the Mets were destined to take the division from the Nats. The Mets have since gone 4-5 in their last nine games, and Harvey's innings limit fiasco must be causing at least some distraction based on David Wright's dreaded vote of confidence.
The Nationals and Mets' seasons seem to be showing signs of what statisticians call regression to the mean, but Matt Harvey's innings limit makes this three game series anything but average.


This series will feature the two pitchers whose shutdowns caused their respective fan bases to lose their minds when an innings limit was announced.  If it were up to the baseball gods, or if Vince McMahon were running the MLB, it would be Stephen Strausburg pitching on Tuesday, instead of Wednesday, opposite Matt Harvey.  There are similarities between when Strausburg was shutdown and Harvey's recent revelation .  Both the Mets and Nats were leading the division when it happened, it happened around the same time of year, and both were huge stories in the local and national media.  Harvey himself commented about being on an innings limit during the Strausburg shutdown due to the Mets wanting to keep him from wearing himself out at a young age in their AAA system.  He stated:

“I kind of knew [being put on an innings limit] was going to happen, so I kind of avoided thinking about it because that would just cause problems — clutter, as people would say. I just try to take it day by day. I’m going to prepare for the rest of the season even if they do shut me down. I’m pretty sure I’m still going to throw bullpens and stuff.”

Weird right, given the current sate of affairs?  This statement was made by Harvey in 2010, but life is a little different when you are the ace starter instead of some hot prospect.  The Mets are showing signs that they could be slowing down with their top player having to do damage control in the media rather than on the field.  It is time for the Nationals impose their own innings limit on Harvey by winning this series and putting themselves closer to being back in the position everyone thought they would be in at this point in the season. 
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Redskins vs. Ravens: Cousins Makes The Redskins A Team

No more daily injury status updates.  No more endless analysis of self-aggrandizing tweets.  No more attention seeking press conferences and sound bytes.  No more personalized catch phrases with a clothing line attached to them.  No more Robert Griffin in Washington .  Jay Gruden's comments on Sunday may turn out to be the final blow to Griffin's fall from grace in DC despite Gruden giving Griffin the dreaded vote of confidence.  All logical sense points to the Redskins parting ways with Griffin at some point this season, and more than likely before they take the field against the Dolphins in Week 1.  Whatever the Redskins decide to do with Robert Griffin, it is clear that the ascension of Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback has shifted the narrative from the Redskins fate hinging on the health of one person, to their fate being in the hands of 53 people working together.

The biggest difference between Griffin and Cousins that has been noted this offseason is the fact that the offense seems to operate at a higher level when Cousins is under center.  The Baltimore game clearly showed that Cousins has a better command of the offense, but his new found role as the Redskins starter has done more than just bring the team together on the field.  By naming Cousins the starter, Gruden has released the rest of the team from the media fetters that RG3 has placed on them over the past three years.  Ever since Griffin was drafted all you heard about what RG3, and the players could not get away from having to answer questions about Robert's health or performance.  That was fine in his first year when he was tearing up the field; "Winning is the deodorant that covers all the stink" as Charles Barkley would say.  But once the winning went away it became more of a burden for the team to constantly have to hear about what Robert just said, or tweeted, or what they think of his injury status.  It became more about RG3 the persona than about his performance on the field, and it has come to a head this preseason because this team feels that they have amassed quite a collection of talent that should be fielding questions about their own performance rather than RG3's lack thereof.  With RG3 riding the bench, people should start to notice what the Ravens game highlighted; The Redskins maybe deeper an more talented that you think.

Ryan Grant showed that he has the prowess to keep pace with starting level talent, and he showed that the Redskins can trot out four legit WR's, plus have guys like Jamison Crowder and Rashad Ross to back them up.  The OLB's continued to impress with Preston Smith flashing his closing speed and evolving pass rush and Jackson Jeffcoat showing his ball hawking and plain old fashioned hustle skills.  Matt Jones continued his reign of terror over the Ravens' front seven as they tried to bring him down once he got downhill, and Chris Thompson and Tre Williams proved that they can be a sneaky change of pace to Jones and Morris when called upon.  Even Jordan Reed's athleticism showed up and made some people bring back the notion that he could be the next big TE in the NFL.  And don't look now, but Stephen Paea may prove to be the most valuable offseason signing.  He has shown he can get behind the line, which has freed up Jason Hatcher to some degree and made him more productive.  Finally, David Amerson has shown that offenses are rolling the dice if they throw a comeback pattern on him.  He has good closing speed when defending those routes.  Now if we can only get him to take better tackling angles. 

Sure, there were things that left something to be desired in the Ravens game, such as the fact that the offensive line had trouble opening holes for Alfred Morris, whatever Dashon Goldson calls physical safety play may need some self reflecting on his part, the Redskins failed to convert two fourth and one plays, and the Special Teams.  Oh the Special Teams.  Justin Rogers may have secured a spot on the team with his tremendous tackle to save a kick return touchdown.  The problem was that it came 103 yards after the Ravens returner caught the kickoff, and the Redskins MVP last year (Tress Way) continues to be average at best.  I can see us losing at least one game this year because of special teams play if it doesn't improve.

What the Ravens game really showed us, though,
 is that the Redskins have a lot of talent on this team that should not go to waste trying to figure out whether RG3 can compete at a high level again.  Gruden heeded that call by naming Cousins the starter, and in doing so he may have inadvertently shown a commitment to the rest of the team.  A team that has one of the best receiver tandems in the league with Garcon and Jackson.  A team that has four running backs that could wreak havoc on opposing defenses in various ways.  A team whose front seven is looking more physical and talented than it ever has before, doing it all with a limited contribution from Ryan Kerrigan so far this preseason.  A team with a group of corner backs that, at the very least, proved they will be physical and in your face, and a group of about 40-50 other players who have bought in to that mantra of physicality and intensity.  This may be the best collection of talent at the offensive skill positions that the Redskins have had in a long time, and the defense will at least be better than it has been.  The one position that needs to bring it all together is the one that everyone else no longer has to answer for because of Jay Gruden's decision to not let that be a distraction. Cousins brings a higher level of performance to the offense, and more importantly, he makes the Redskins more of a team both on and off the field.