The Caps Winning The Stanley Cup Has Killed DC Fandom

What are DC Sports Fans supposed to do now?  The Capitals historic win on Thursday Night eradicated all of what being a fan of DC Sports is all about.  Pain.  Misery.  Self Loathing.  Getting high off of crazy preseason optimism knowing that it will all come crashing down in some horrible self fulfilling prophecy in the playoffs.  Doing simple arithmetic to show others how you have never seen, or were too young to remember, a professional championship in DC.  All of that is gone now.  What is left is something that will define the type of fan base this city truly has and whether it is ready to support sports teams through genuine fandom, or if their support only goes as far as frenzied feelings of FOMO.

DC Fans seemed to take the frivolous statement from Michael Wilbon, that Washington DC was a "minor league sports town", a little too much to heart, and they were a little too quick to point to the outpouring of fans at the Caps viewing party Thursday night as evidence to the contrary.  While it was amazing to see how many people came out to support the Caps, many of those people were there to be a part of the scene rather than show their enduring support for a team they have cheered for for years.  Stories were abound about how these Stanley Cup Playoff Games were the first hockey games that a lot of these people watched, and they went down to Capital One Arena on Thursday simply because they did not want to miss out on the festivities.  But winning a championship does not instantaneously turn these people into regular fans.  Just ask the Carolina Hurricanes how many interlopers from their 2006 Stanley Cup Championship are still there.  Or look at the Miami Marlins, who would kill for a quarter of the people who jumped on their bandwagon in 1997 and 2003 to still be there today.  DC Sports fans now find themselves in a similar situation.  The Capitals have drawn in multitudes of fans to their cause, but mostly due to fear of missing out on a social scene.  It will take more than that to prove Michael Wilbon wrong, and now it is time to see if DC Fandom truly has what it takes to foster a genuine "sports town" atmosphere.

The Capitals have removed the security blanket from DC Fans by winning the Stanley Cup.  For so long the narrative has been that it is hard to develop a genuine sports culture in DC because of so much ineptitude, impotence, and playoff tragedies galore from all the DC professional sports teams.  Most of that has been washed away by the Capitals victory on Thursday night.  Fans were witness to a team that was intelligently put together and mentored throughout the season.  They saw the likes of Max Scherzer, Ryan Zimmerman, and Derrius Guice show their support for the Caps on their run to the Cup.  The teams are doing all they can to create a unified sense among all the different teams and superstars, and now they have at least one championship to show for this shared unity.  It is now on the fans of Washington DC to show that they will show long term support for a team like the Capitals because they love the sport, and not because they love the number of Instagram likes they get when they post stuff with #ALLCAPS.  DC Fans now must show that they can evolve from a fan base of self loathing to one that can legitimately support their teams by watching games and becoming informed fans, and not just jump on every time a championship rolls around.  The Capitals have put the onus on DC Fans to prove that this city can be more than an event driven town that fluctuates based on the level of attention each sport will bring to the individual.  DC fans need to show that this city can be one with an informed fan base that will continue to grow in mass no matter what time of year it is.  If this does not happen, then maybe DC is just a minor league sports town, but we know now that it is not because of the nature of the teams.  It is the nature of the fans.  

Alex Ovechkin Will Make History By Not Winning

Alex Ovechkin has cemented a legacy in this area that can only be eclipsed by a certain few, and those people barely touched a hockey rink in their entire lives.  He is the greatest professional athlete the DC area has witnessed in the last 20 years, and his dominance within his sport has not been seen in this area since Walter Johnson pitched for the Washington Senators.  Proof of this omnipotence will be on display over the next week when Ovechkin scores the 600th goal of his career, and it could be on display over the next two months if Ovechkin is able to reach the 50 goal mark for the season and win his seventh Rocket Richard Trophy.  All of these accomplishments, though, will be eclipsed by Ovechkin's inability to win the one thing that could vault him into the position of "Greatest DC Sports Figure"; winning the Stanley Cup.

Ovechkin will set numerous milestones when he scores his 600th goal, hopefully in the next few games, and hopefully in front of the Capital One Arena crowd.  Ovechkin will become the 20th player in NHL history to score 600 goals.  Even more impressive is that he will be only the sixth player to score 600 goals with one franchise.  The others are Bobby Hull with Chicago (604), Joe Sackic with Quebec/Colorado (625), Mario Lemieux with Pittsburgh (690), Steve Yzerman with Detroit (692), and the great Gordie Howe with Detroit (786).  That is elite company, but given the lack of credentials Ovechkin carries he must be lumped in with a not so illustrious section of this fraternity.  When Ovechkin scores his 600th goal he will be one of five players to have scored 600 goals and not won a Stanley Cup in their career.  The others are Dino Ciccarelli, Jerome Iginla, Mike Gartner, and Macel Dionne.  Even more depressing is the fact that Ovechkin will be  one of only three players to have scored 600 goals and never reached the Stanley Cup Finals.  Gartner and Dionne never made it to a Stanley Cup Final in their career, although an asterisk needs to be put next to Gartner as he was traded away from the 1994 Rangers that eventually won the Stanley Cup. So Ovechkin will set precedents for both career glory and futility when he tingles the twine for the 600th time in his NHL career, and this paradox only thickens when looking at more seasonal accomplishments.

Two years ago, Alex Ovechkin became only the 11th player in NHL history to score 50 goals in a season at age 30 or older.  The last player to do that before Ovechkin was Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006. Ovechkin has been bucking the trend in an era that is supposed to be unfavorable to goal scorers, and if he can reach the 50 goal plateau again this season he will once again find himself in unique company.  Only Marcel Dionne, Phil Esposito, Mario Lemieux, and Bobby Hull had multiple 50 goal seasons at age 30 or older, and Ovechkin stands to join their ranks this season.  But if he accomplishes this task, Ovechkin will join Marcel Dionne as the only Non-Stanley Cup winners of this group.  Even if Ovechkin cannot reach 50 goals this season, he is currently leading the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy with 40 goals.  If Ovechkin stays a top the goal scoring leader board it will be his seventh Richard Trophy of his career.  The Rocket Richard Trophy has only been given out since 1998, but it does not look good when its' most decorated recipient is one of only two players who have received this trophy and never even played in a Stanley Cup Final.  The other is Jonathan Cheechoo.  Once again Ovechkin's goal scoring will make history for both good and bad reasons, but for all the career futility that has been outlined here there is one caveat the Ovechkin has in his favor.  He is still playing.

Ovechkin leads a Capitals team that was not supposed to be where they are this season.  Last year was supposed to be the Caps' best chance to win the Stanley Cup, but they fell short again and a large chunk of their talented core left Washington.  Taking their place was a group of unknowns that has only put the Caps in a position to win their division against staggering statistical odds.  The Caps have the 6th worst 5v5 Corsi Against total this season, which means they give up a ton of shots on net at even strength.  They are 8th worst in 5v5 Corsi +/- (-248) and Corsi% (47.99) meaning that they are allowing a lot more shots on their net as they are putting on their opponents net at even strength.  And if you're looking for salvation in the power play, it may dishearten you to know that the Capitals have the 5th worst penalty differential in the league at -32, meaning that they have taken 32 more penalties than they have drawn this season.  And yet they are only one point out of the Metro Division lead, and three points out of being the third best team in the Eastern Conference.  This Capitals team may be forging and identity that it has not had in a long time, and Alex Ovechkin will be at the forefront of it.

This could be Ovechkin's chance to not just make history through his goal scoring, but to also make history through playoff success.  He has captained high flying teams in the past that have underachieved, but now he is at the helm of a team that is building its identity organically for the first time in almost a decade.  This team has built its own expectations rather than having lofty ones bestowed upon them from day one, and that may be the formula that gets the Capitals going to the next level.  The team has faced massive adversity at numerous times this season, and yet they are still firmly entrenched within the playoff hunt despite inconsistent play and shaky goal tending.  Building success from within seems to have been lacking in the Capitals ever since they shocked the world in making the playoffs in 2008, and it may be the formula that takes Alex Ovechkin to the team success that has eluded him his entire career.  Ovechkin currently leads an opportunistic team with an elite goal tender with something to prove that has had a chip on its shoulder about its playoff futility for a decade.  If Ovechkin cannot embody that sense of grit and lead this team to a championship, then he may be the first NHL player to make history for what he did not win for his city and fan base.

The Day of Reckoning for DC Sports GM's

The Kirk Cousins contract debacle over the last three years has once again highlighted the complete ineptitude of the Redskins front office to keep high level talent in DC, or get anything close to adequate compensation for his departure.  The flagship team for the Washington DC area is letting their best player at the most important position that they have had in over 40 years walk for almost nothing.  Cousins was a player that developed through this organization, and whatever the truth is about Kirk wanting to sign a long term contract with the Redskins, it is not a good look for the organization when a top player at his position over the last three years is let go.  The Redskins, though, are only the tip of the ice berg in DC when it comes to GM's making decisions about keeping their superstars in town.  The Wizards, Capitals, and Nationals will all have to face decisions in the very near future about whether or not to keep their franchise players here in Washington, and their decisions may have consequences that could undo the Pax Columbiana atmosphere those three teams have enjoyed in the regular season over the last decade.  Let's look at all three teams that will have major decisions to make in regards to their franchise players in the coming seasons, beginning with the Wizards.

The Wiz have most recently signed their Big Three of Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, and John Wall to long term contracts, but in the NBA no one is safe from a trade especially when there is drama in the locker room.  Marcin Gortat did not need a lot of arm twisting to state that the Wizards have been able to move the ball better on offense (in his opinion) without John Wall in the lineup.  In fact, the Wizards are 5-2 since Wall's injury that included a heart breaking loss against the Celtics on Thursday night.  This does not mean that Wall is going anywhere anytime soon, but if this type of fervor continues it could put a lot of pressure on Ernie Grunfeld to alleviate the situation in his own bumbling way.  Even if that does not happen, though, Beal and Porter will become UFA's in 2021.  While that date seems far off, the closer that date gets without any kind of playoff success from this team (i.e. Eastern Conference Finals appearances/championships) the more you may hear of Bradley Beal being moved since he doesn't have a no trade clause or trade kicker in his contract.  This is merely speculation, and the Wizards are the least likely team to break up the band in the near future, but the longer a team goes without success the more the trade rumors of superstars begin to surface.  Just ask the Capitals.

The Capitals futility in the post season came to a head this past spring, and with it came the most fervent push of the "Trade Alex Ovechkin" camp.  The notion of trading the greatest player the Capitals have ever had, and one of the greatest players in the game, seemed unfathomable when Ovechkin signed his mega deal in 2008.  But a decade has passed with Ovechkin winning no championships despite great regular season success, and Ovi realizing he only has three years remaining on his contract.  Couple that with Nick Backstrom and Braden Holtby becoming UFA's in only 2 years, and Brian MacLellan is going to have to face some tough decisions in the not-so-distant future.  Does he pull a Bruce Allen and keep the band together until it disintegrates and his superstars walk away for nothing, or does he try to make moves that will benefit the next iteration of this team post Ovechkin/Backstrom?  Prudence dictates that he at least entertains the latter, but more than likely he will choose to ride with Ovechkin as long as he can.  Keeping Ovechkin, though, will be tough if the Caps are unceremoniously eliminated from the playoffs again this season and the end of Ovechkin's contract looms on the visible part of the horizon.  It is hard to keep a superstar if they want a lot of money and do not produce championships.  Just ask the Nationals.

The Nationals are the team that has the most pressing issue facing it's GM.  Bryce Harper will become a UFA at the end of this season, and Mike Rizzo needs to weigh a lot of choices as it pertains to what to do with the most electrifying player in the DC market.  Does he pay him the GDP of some Third World Countries, or does he trade him away a la Giancarlo Stanton? There is always the patented Bruce Allen method of jerking him around and letting him walk for nothing, but Rizzo seems more saavy than that.  He realizes that Bryce Harper had the fifth highest selling jersey in all of Major League Baseball last season, and he moves merchandise with young kids here in the DC area.  Rizzo realizes that Harper sells tickets for the novice fans who want to see a superstar.  He realizes the Bryce has the ability to make a mega deal worth it through his production.  But the main question is, will it be worth it if the trophy case remains barren.  Recent history has proven that even with the firepower the Nats have been able to muster they still have fallen short of even playing for an NL Pennant. Trading Harper would be prudent if the Nationals know they are unwilling to go as high as Harper wants once negotiations begin, and they can get something in return for his departure.  Or Rizzo could bury his head in the sand and keep Harper knowing they are not going to pay him and make him resentful of this town and the way the Nationals do business.  But what GM would conduct himself in that manner?

Bruce Allen's handling of the Kirk Cousins contract situation has been given a little more perspective since Jimmy Garoppolo signed his contract.  Hindsight has made Allen look a little more prudent in being wary of giving Kirk $140 million, but the problem of letting Kirk walk for nothing still persists.  Luckily for Allen the other Washington GM's will have their chance to botch the handling of their respective superstars' expiring contracts here in Washington.  Ernie Grunfeld will need to decide if having three max players is worth all the childish bickering that may turn into real problems if no championships come.  Brian MacLellan will need to decide if it is worth keeping a legend in the face of persistent playoff futility.  And Mike Rizzo must decide whether or not it is worth breaking the bank for the face of his franchise.  Hanging in the balance is the relevance and relative winning stability these players have brought to the DC area.  These three GM's need to realize that if any one of the Wizards Big Three, Alex Ovechkin, or Bryce Harper are to leave that puts a damper on their ability to be perennial playoff teams, and in turn, sell tickets and merchandise.  The GM's need to keep up the winning atmosphere by getting value in return for these players' possible departure.  These decisions will be playing out over the next three years, and the three teams located outside of Ashburn, Virginia need to realize that their consistency, fortunes, and popularity within the DC Market for the next decade hinge on the handling of their superstars' expiring contracts.  Grunfeld, MacLellan, and Rizzo need to see these decisions for what they are, and make the moves that will secure assets that will help their team for the long term.  Or they could cover themselves in the warm blanket of denial and let these players walk for no compensation.  But what kind of GM would conduct himself in that manner?

Ovi's 50 Needs to Make History for All

Alex Ovechkin put himself in exclusive company against the Blues on Saturday night.  His hat trick all but assured his fourth consecutive, and sixth overall, Rocket Richard Trophy.  Granted, this trophy only came into existence in 1998, but since that time no other player has won it more than twice.  Ovechkin is now the third player in NHL history to score 50 goals seven or more times (Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky did it 9 times).  He is the first player in NHL history to score 50 or more goals in three consecutive seasons twice (2007-2010 and 2013-2016), but this seems less of an achievement when you realize that Gretzky had eight consecutive 50 plus seasons and Bossy's nine 50 goal seasons were consecutive as well.  What people need to be focusing on is the age at which Ovechkin is accomplishing these feats, for both good and bad reasons, and what history we want Ovechkin to be making as Capitals fans.

Although Gretzky and Bossy never had a lull in their 50 goal scoring seasons, Ovechkin has now outpaced them in terms of longevity.  Both Bossy and Gretzky saw their last 50 goal season come before age 30 (Gretzky at 28 and Bossy at 29).  Ovechkin has become only the 9th player in NHL history to score 50 goals at age 30 or older and the first to do so since Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006.  If you believe the notion that goal scoring is harder to come by these days, Ovechkin's 50 goals this season looks even more impressive since two of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history could not get 50 after 30 in an inferior defensive era.  But the "different era" argument is for those who wish to argue ad nauseam about the greatest of all time without really wanting to come to a consensus.  Ovechkin's goal scoring longevity will never surpass what made Bossy and Gretzky great, and Ovechkin is running out of time to achieve this in order to make him live eternally in the annals of NHL lore.

It may not have occurred to Capitals fans, but Ovechkin has yet to even play for a Stanley Cup.  That puts him on the short list with Jonathan Cheechoo, that is his real name, as being the only Rocket Richard winners to never have played in a Stanley Cup Final.  That takes a little bit of luster off of his 50 goal seasons when you realize that all other great goal scorers of this era were at least able to get their teams in position to win a championship, and most of them were able to scale the mountain top.  It is also sobering to know that only three players 30 or older have been able to score 50 goals and win a Stanley Cup in the same season.  They are Joe Sakic with the Avalanche in 2001, Joe Mullen with the Flames in 1989, and Phil Esposito with the Bruins in 1972.  All of this means that Ovechkin's time is running out, and remember that Father Time is undefeated.  While Ovechkin's 50 goals are an individual milestone it is the team's success that will put him into the stratosphere of NHL greats, and Ovechkin is playing with the best overall team of his career.  If Ovehckin cannot win it this year the future looks hazy, at best, as to what type of supporting cast he will have in his continued push for collective greatness. It is more than likely that we may see the departure of Jason Chimera and Dmitri Orlov this offseason, and what will Brian MacLellan do when  T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and Nate Schmidt are all looking for more money after the 2017 season?  If Ovechkin is to attain true greatness he will need to do what he did on Saturday night and lead the only NHL team he has ever known to their first Stanley Cup Championship.  If he does not, maybe he will donate all of his Rocket Richard Trophies to the Verizon Center so we can put them on display.

Please check out Jewels from the Crown where all of the goal scoring info was found.

A Rivalry Rexamined: Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Washington Sports Fans may have neglected to notice that the best team in the NHL's Eastern Conference currently resides at the Verizon Center.  The Capitals are dominating their opponents this season with the newly acquired talent of players like TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, but the one constant on this team that continues to lead them to success is Alex Ovechkin.  While Ovechkin is not the omnipotent force he was early in his career, the Russian Machine has been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons into a sharp shooting opportunist who is scoring goals on more than just breakaways, powerful one timers, and toe drag moves.  Ovechkin has been able to evolve into a player who can score from close in or on rebounds and help out on the back check, which has put him in the top ten in plus/minus so far this season.  It is this evolution that has put the Capitals a top the Eastern Conference, and it should be reviving an old argument for Capital fans based on what is happening with Ovechkin's long time nemesis. 
In Western Pennsylvania, the Penguins and their captain are having somewhat of a different type of season.  The Penguins find themselves fifth in the Metropolitan Division and Sidney Crosby is not exactly having the best of seasons so far.  The normally surgical tactician has only 24 points (7 goals/17 assists) and is a -5, which should be bringing the argument of Crosby vs. Ovechkin back into the NHL consciousness if these season trends continue for both players. There is no question that right now Crosby's Stanley Cup Championship and two Gold Medals outpace Ovechkin's superior individual accomplishments, but Crosby's lackluster season so far begins to beg the question of longevity.  What happens if Crosby's production continues to wane and Ovechkin can continue to be a top 10 goal scorer for that same period of time? 

Ovechkin had his dip in production from 2010-2012 where people were asking if Ovechkin's time as a dominant goal scorer was over.  He responded with three straight Rocket Richard Trophies and has vaulted himself back into the NHL's elite.  The difference with Sidney Crosby is that he has already had a decline in production in his career.  From 2010-2013 Crosby only played in 99 games due to injury, and his overall stats subsequently took a hit.  It is scary to think of what Crosby's career numbers would be had he been able to play more over those three seasons, and he did come back to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) in 2013-2014, but another statistical dud from Crosby sans injury could begin to swing the argument back in Ovechkin's favor if Ovechkin is able to continue to be productive.  Fifty goal scorers are not common at Ovechkin's age, and if Ovechkin can score 50 even one more time it may add the dimension of prolonged success to this argument that could offset some of the significance of the championships that Crosby has won.
Wherever a current hypothetical scenario can take this argument, the current reality is that Crosby is on top due to the championships he has won with the Penguins and Team Canada.  But up until this year it almost seemed a forgone conclusion that Ovechkin would need to win a Stanley Cup before this rivalry could be revived.  Looking at the season that Crosby is having now may counter that sentiment by seeing how well each player can end their career.  If Crosby ends his career with only second/third line center production, and if Ovechkin can do what only 8 players have done in NHL history (score 50 goals after age 30) and continue to be a legit first line winger for the next three to five years, it may give Ovechkin an edge over Crosby in terms of longevity.  And if the Capitals can do what some people say they should do this year, it will vault Ovechkin over his longtime nemesis and revive a rivalry that has lain dormant for the past five years.