Redskins vs. Giants Part Deux: The World is Changing

No. The Redskins are not the powers of Isengard and Mordor combined.  But after reading this article about Tony Romo's future and watching the total implosion of the Eagles on national television, this statement from Saruman seemed appropriate for the current state of affairs in the NFC East.  The Cowboys season is all but lost, and they now need to start seriously considering a plan for their quarterback position post Tony Romo.  The Eagles' public disembowelment on Thanksgiving showed that they also have little hope for the future with their current quarterbacks, and they may not have much confidence in anything Chip Kelley does for them outside of ordering lunch.  And even that may get dicey at times.  Which brings us to Sunday's rematch of the other two teams in the division. 

The Giants lead the division, but their last two losses came on the last play of the game where they allowed the Saints and Patriots to drive down the field in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.  The Giants may be losing that moxie that saved them so many times in close situations, and Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are not getting any younger.  But the Redskins have at least some confidence in their quarterback for this season and possibly for the future. If you believe the reports that came out this week, The Redskins have enough confidence in Gruden that he will return next year.  All of this makes this game on Sunday more than just a battle for first place this year.  It could give the Redskins organization the shot of confidence they need to fill the looming vacuum that is being created by the hubris, incompetence, and aging of the other teams in the NFC East.  If the Redskins would like to change their fortunes this weekend here is what they need to do.

If you can't get up for a game like this.......: All poetic gravitas aside, the Redskins are playing for a tie for first place in the NFC East.  That should be enough motivation for the Redskins to come out firing on all cylinders, but if they need more motivation they should look at the records of the remaining opponents for all the NFC East teams:

Giants remaining opponents:      34-27
Eagles remaining opponents:      32-18
Cowboys remaining opponents: 21-20 (play redskins twice)
Redskins remaining opponents: 22-31 (play cowboys twice)

The Redskins have the easiest schedule on paper for the remainder of the season, but remember that the Redskins also have three more road games to play.  A win would put them in the drivers seat, but a loss would almost force them to win out in order to try and make the playoffs. 

Leave the Run; Take the Pass: It would behoove the Redskins to focus on beating the Giants defense with the pass first. The Giants have given up the most total completions, total passing yards, and yards per game so far this season.  They are also tied with the Falcons for fewest number of sacks this season with 12.  This plays into the Redskins passing style that relies on high completion percentage (Cousins is third in the league) and not taking sacks because of getting the ball out quickly.  Look for a lot of Jordan Reed to exploit the middle of the field, and quick hitters to Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to alleviate pressure.  Also, look for Crowder to get some looks with wide receiver screens to make the Giants spread out.  If the Redskins can get the passing game going it may open up the running lanes enough to have some success.  This is all predicated on the Redskins doing one thing.

Clock Control: The Redskins need to control the clock.  The Giants' offensive strength is efficiency.  The Giants score on 42.7% of their drives which is good for third in the league behind New England and Arizona, and only 0.7% ahead of Carolina who showed what can happen to the Redskins if they allow a team to score on every possession.  The Giants are also only turning the ball over on 9.1% of their drives compared to the Redskins who turn the ball over on 17.6% of their drives.  What's worse is that the Giants defense forces a turnover on 19.3% of their drives which is second best in the league behind Carolina. What all of this means is that the Giants score a lot, they don't turn the ball over very much, and if you are holding onto the ball too long they are taking it back so they can score again.  The Redskins need to be able to keep pace with the Giants by matching their efficiency through clock control and limiting turnovers.  Short passes will be the name of the game on Sunday, and taking advantage of favorable running situations in order to keep the ball away from the Giants' offense.

A Test of Character:  Finally, forgetting all the stats, this game will be about whether or not this team has really had a character change.  The talk this week has been about how good the Redskins have been at home this season and how well they have bounced back from losses, but certain individuals must answer the call to prove these notions are not just talking points for TV analysts.  Kirk Cousins needs to prove that he can win a game with legitimate playoff implications when all eyes are on him.  The defense needs to prove that it can come up with big stops against a team that terrorized them earlier this season, and who will look to exploit their deficiencies in the run game.  Finally, the coaching staff needs to prove that they can come up with a solid game plan in a meaningful game.  Just like Cousins, this will be Jay Gruden's first game as a head coach where there are legitimate playoff implications. How this team responds to the opening call, and how they adjust to the flow of the game will show how good of a head coach Jay Gruden really is. 

I have a bad feeling about this game.  The Giants' offense has been clicking the past three weeks, while the Redskins' defense continues to fall into despair.  No Chris Culliver means that Odell Beckham should be going all Keyshawn on Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin.  But I will go with the title of this article and say the world is changing.  Cousins has a solid, but not flashy, game and the defense is able to come up with one big play that keeps us in the game.  It will be close either way, but I'll believe the Redskins can do it.

Redskins win 24-20

The University of Under Armour Needs a New Coach

Randy Edsall just didn't cut it.  He didn't cut it from the moment he was announced as the head coach in 2011 and everyone had to Google his name to figure out who he was.  Instead of Mike Leach locking players in cramped spaces and running ridiculous offensive spread sets that would turn Byrd Stadium into a track meet facility; we got Randy Edsall.  Edsall was a tepid choice at best, especially when the recently hired Kevin Anderson canned a beloved alumnus to hire a guy whose persona and football style catered to a demographic that was old enough to remember D-Day.  Leach was the choice that moved the needle, but in 2011 Anderson was more concerned with image rather than ticket sales and not thinking about who paid the bills around the University of Maryland's Athletic Department.  With Edsall looking to be on the outs as early as next week, Kevin Plank will be reminding Mr. Anderson that he has a large emotional and financial stake in the hiring of the new coach based on what Under Armour has done for the University of Maryland.

The New York Times puts all of this in perspective in one great article written in August of this year.  Kevin Plank, whether implicitly or explicitly, want Maryland to be Oregon East.  He wants to make his alma mater the athletic Mecca that will attract athletes and innovators in the field of athletics to College Park for decades to come.  He wants Lord Baltimore's coat of arms to be worn around the country so that The University of Maryland will be synonymous with winning in a cool way.  He wants this so long as all of this comes with an Under Armour logo on the side.  He has proven this by putting up $25 million "gift" for the new Cole Field House renovations that will create the premier athletic research and training facility in the country.  The article also states that Under Armour extended their contract with Maryland that pays the University $33 million in cash and apparel, and Plank has been noted to test new apparel out with the Maryland football team.  And then there is this beautiful nugget from the article that explains it all:

Mr. Plank’s influence at Maryland does not extend to the hiring and firing of coaches, according to Maryland and Under Armour officials. But he is not a passive check-writing machine. Mr. Anderson said his interview process, which culminated with his hiring as the athletic director in 2010, included an interview with Mr. Plank.  

This is a nice way of saying that Kevin Plank works behind the scenes.  It is the old adage, "If I'm not in the room to see Kevin Plank or Under Armour involved in the hiring of coaches/development of the athletic budget/recruitment of athletes, then it never really happened, right?"  This is not to say that it actually happens.  I have no proof of that.  But suffice to say that Plank and Under Armour's financial influence within the University of Maryland's Athletic Department has grown exponentially since Edsall's hiring in 2011, and they are expecting returns on their investments that Edsall was not meeting.  Forget the reports that state the players were tuning him out and look to the more important fact that attendance has been going down this year to the tune of 13% lower than last year.  Kevin Plank cannot have another ho-hum pick at head coach and luckily there is one right up I-95.

Chip Kelly.  Everyone says it is crazy, but Kevin Plank should be loading up dump trucks full of money to send to Chip Kelly's house right now.  His hiring would set College Park on fire, and it is not too far fetched to think he may come given a Godfather like package.  His position in Philly is tenuous at best and his reputation was made in the college ranks.  He would not have to move far, and he would be set in a fertile recruiting area with the full backing of the University, Kevin Plank, and Under Armour.  Kelly could also have the chance to prove himself against the likes of fellow spread offense aficionado Urban Meyer and resident Big 10 Golden Boy Jim Harbaugh.  There are downsides to Kelly coming here, and it may cost a pretty penny for him to leave the Eagles, but 2011 showed that the safe hire gets you safe results and Kevin Plank is not shelling out $33 million per year to go 7-6.  It has to be Chip Kelly, if for no other reason than he will electrify the boosters and fan base in a way Randy Edsall never did. Edsall was hired for the University of Maryland's image. Chip Kelly will be hired for one thing and one thing only.  To win for the University of Under Armour.

Redskins vs. Eagles: Redskins Must Not Revive Another Nemesis's Season

Do you know what nemesis means? One of the Redskins' nemeses got theirs last Thursday night as the Redskins began to fill their obligatory annual quota of bad losses in big situations that revive the other team's season.  The Redskins gave a reprieve to another floundering Giants team last Thursday night and breathed life into their otherwise pathetic season.  We will see if that win means anything to the Giants, but after a week of high hopes and nickname contests for the Redskins running back tandem HTTR nation was brought back down to Earth after the loss to the Giants.  Now all the cynicism and insecurities have been running rampant for the last 10 days as another nemesis comes to town looking for a little pick me up for their season.  The Eagles offense finally came through last week, and they look to a Redskins team in limbo and a soggy FedEx Field to resuscitate their chances at an NFC East title.  The Redskins were too happy to oblige the Giants when they were in dire need of a win, and the Eagles present a style of play that could wreak havoc on an injury ridden Redskins team. The weather will also produce challenges of its own, but the Redskins must trust in their system and know that the Eagles' flaws are gaping and could be exploited to great effect.  The keys to this game are as follows:

Let Sam Bradford Throw The Ball:  Just do not let the Eagles running attack get going.  The Eagles win last week was predicated on Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles running for 123 yards last week and taking the pressure off of Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing offense that has been statistically abysmal this season.  They are tied for last in the league in yards per completion (9.3) and longest completion (32 yards), and they are next to last in yards per attempt (5.8).  Couple that with an offense that has the worst average time per drive (1:48), the lowest average yards per drive (21.4), and scores on only 22.5% of their offensive drives (second worst percentage in the league), and you see that the Eagles rushing attack was their savior last week by lengthening drives and allowing Bradford's short passing game to be effective.  Bradford is not throwing the ball far, but he can be effective if given short down and distances and a depleted secondary to throw against.  He will get the latter on Sunday as the Redskins will probably be missing their top two cornerbacks in Chris Culliver and DeAngelo Hall.  What the Redskins need to do is win the yardage battle on first down, contain the Eagles running attack, and support a depleted secondary by blitzing selectively.  If the Redskins become too blitz happy it may give Bradford easy pre-snap reads and the ability to catch them overcommitting against the run.  The Redskins defense should drop back to cover the medium to short passing routes and not leave their young corners on an island.  They will also need a big push from the defensive line to control the running game.  If Matthews and Sproles are able to do what the Giants did and put the Redskins defense in short third downs it may be a long day for the Redskins defense.

Limit the Eagles' Opportunities:  Sproles returned a punt last week, and the Eagles were also able to get a touchdown off of a Brandon Marshall fumble that gave them a short field to work with.  This allowed them to go up big on the Jets.  Special teams returns and turnovers are something that the Redskins may have a tough time avoiding, and it has nothing to do with Cousins's penchant for throwing interceptions. The Eagles Defense is forcing a turnover in one out of every five offensive possessions they face this season, which is third best in the league. They have only turned two of those turnovers into points, but in a game that could be a monsoon it does not bode well for the Redskins who have an interception prone quarterback, a rookie running back with a history of ball control issues, and a special teams unit that is just itching to give up a game breaking return.  Both offense and special teams need to be sharp if they are to limit big plays and execute the final key to success.

Ball Control/Cousins Bounce Back:  Cousins had a bad game last week, but he has shown better resiliency this season in coming back from mistakes within the game.  He will need to show that he can come back from game to game because the Redskins Offense faces another stout run defense.  The Eagles run defense is allowing the lowest yards per attempt in the league (3.1), and with the Redskins' offensive line possibly being without Morgan Moses, Kory Lichtensteiger, and Josh LeRibeus it could be another long day for the Redskins running attack.  Cousins will need to prove that he can throw the ball effectively and efficiently to take pressure off of the running game.  Jordan Reed is an easy person to mark as needing to have a big game, but also look for Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson to turn short passes into big gains with their legs that could keep the Eagles defense honest if they begin to crowd the line of scrimmage.  Jones and Morris should be given the ball early to give the Redskins favorable down and distance, but they also need to make sure they get positive yardage to give Cousins a chance to extend drives.  Chip K
elly's offense runs at a quick pace, and if the Redskins Defense is out there for too long they become more susceptible to big plays.  The Redskins need to run the ball over 25 times for at least 80 yards to be successful.  Anything less means they are not controlling the clock, Cousins is having to throw more, and the Redskins will not come out on top. 

This could be Thursday Night all over again.  Philly has the ability to stop the Redskins running attack and force Kirk Cousins into doing what he does best; throwing untimely interceptions. They also have the up-tempo offense needed to put the Redskins in a hole that will force them to throw if they get down by a fair margin.  The Eagles, though, have shown the ability to have crappy drives that give the ball back on downs.  The Redskins need to force Bradford to make decisions after the snap by dropping into coverage, and they need to control the ball with positive runs, accurate passes, and a little speed here and there from the likes of Thompson and Crowder.  This is going to be an ugly one, but all the Redskins need is a win and they will get it.

20-17 Redskins Win.