Redskins vs Patriots: "You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss"

Words of wisdom from Omar Little that the Redskins would be wise to heed tomorrow as they take the field in Foxboro for the first time in eight years; and we all remember what happened that day.  Not much has changed has changed since that fateful day. The Patriots still do what they do best: win.  The Redskins still do what they do best: play as inconsistently as possible to always keep a sense of hope within the fan base that will ultimately be crushed at the end of the season.  The pundits believe in these roles so much that they write headlines like these on their websites about this game.  And why shouldn't they?  The Patriots have trailed in only three games this season for a grand total of 36:58 of game time.  That means that the Patriots have been trailing for only 8% of their 2015 season, and the Patriots' home win/loss numbers with Tom Brady starting are even more staggering.  The last time Tom Brady lost at home was December 16, 2013 against the 49ers.  In fact, since Tom Brady became the starter in 2001 he has only lost 13 games at Gillette Stadium, and he has only lost three home game since 2010.  So everyone treating this game as an automatic win for the Patriots should rest easy.  If the Redskins plan on not making this game a laugher like the last one they must be better than they have been all season, and if they want to do what only three teams have done in Foxboro in the last five years they must not miss in any facet of the game.  It is a long shot, but here is how they could possibly shock the world.

The Guessing Game:  Question 1:  Who is the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL this season?  Obviously it is Kirk Cous......wait, what?  You're not hallucinating.  Kirk Cousins has only been sacked 8 times this season which is the second least amount of sacks in the NFL behind the Jets.  The Patriots' defense has 26 sacks this season which is good for second best in the league, so the Redskins will have their hands full protecting Cousins this week.  Question 2: Which team has allowed more passing yards this season?  That's right.  The Patriots have allowed 142 more passing yards this season than the Redskins, probably because they have been bludgeoning teams so bad that they have to throw the ball.  Question 3: Who is giving up more rushing yards per game this season?  Of course it is the Redskins.  Washington is giving up the third most rushing yards per game this season, which means that we may see a more run heavy attack from New England to start this game.  With no real threat being posed by the Redskins on paper, it may not be out of the question for the Pats to come out running to see if they can control the one part of the game where the Redskins have the advantage.

Time Is  The Only Thing On The Redskins' Side:  The Redskins' average offensive drive is lasting 25 seconds longer than the Patriots.  If the Redskins expect to be anywhere close to winning they must have that type of ball control though short passing and manageable down and keeping manageable down and distance.  Look for Cousins to be true to his league lowest yards per completion (9.3) and third lowest yards per attempt (6.5) numbers by throwing short passes to control the clock.  Short passes may also lull the Patriots into a false sense of security and allow the Redskins to go over the top.  If the Redskins cannot connect on a pass play longer than 30 yards we may be in trouble. And for all the criticism about the Redskins running woes, as long as they are getting positive yardage it is a good thing.  The Redskins must be going forward at all times and keep the distance for every down in the single digits while controlling the clock.  As long as the game is close, the Redskins should feed the ball to Morris and Jones at least 20 times combined considering that the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per attempt and have faced the third lowest number of rushing attempts so far this season due to their dominance. 

Patriots Dominance:  The Patriots are scoring on 55.6% of their drives this season and only turning the ball over on 3.7% of their drives which is best in the league for both stats.  They have the second best yards per play average in the league (6.3) and the third best yards per drive (35.9).  Oh, and they are averaging a league best 35.6 points per game.  All of this means that the Redskins will be going up against the best, and they need to play a boring, methodical, and perfect game to win.

This will be a battle to see if the Redskins can execute the short game and grind the Patriots down.  New England is scoring every other time they touch the ball, so the Redskins need to control the time of possession through short throws and hard fought runs.  Expect to see a lot of Pierre Garcon as he is the best receiver the Redskins have in tough short yardage situations, and watch for Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder to get a lot of looks in the short medium range.  Defensively they need to not miss chances.  They will not stop the Patriots offense, but when they get their chance to stop them on third down, get an interception, recover a fumble, get a sack, they must execute.  No fancy stats for the defense because if we go by stats the Redskins defense has no chance.  This game will be won on the words of Omar Little, and I'm going with a blind homer pick for this game.  Cousins is able to march the offense methodically down the field and the defense comes up with one big turnover that is the difference in the game.

Redskins win 28-27

Redskins vs. Eagles: Redskins Must Not Revive Another Nemesis's Season

Do you know what nemesis means? One of the Redskins' nemeses got theirs last Thursday night as the Redskins began to fill their obligatory annual quota of bad losses in big situations that revive the other team's season.  The Redskins gave a reprieve to another floundering Giants team last Thursday night and breathed life into their otherwise pathetic season.  We will see if that win means anything to the Giants, but after a week of high hopes and nickname contests for the Redskins running back tandem HTTR nation was brought back down to Earth after the loss to the Giants.  Now all the cynicism and insecurities have been running rampant for the last 10 days as another nemesis comes to town looking for a little pick me up for their season.  The Eagles offense finally came through last week, and they look to a Redskins team in limbo and a soggy FedEx Field to resuscitate their chances at an NFC East title.  The Redskins were too happy to oblige the Giants when they were in dire need of a win, and the Eagles present a style of play that could wreak havoc on an injury ridden Redskins team. The weather will also produce challenges of its own, but the Redskins must trust in their system and know that the Eagles' flaws are gaping and could be exploited to great effect.  The keys to this game are as follows:

Let Sam Bradford Throw The Ball:  Just do not let the Eagles running attack get going.  The Eagles win last week was predicated on Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles running for 123 yards last week and taking the pressure off of Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing offense that has been statistically abysmal this season.  They are tied for last in the league in yards per completion (9.3) and longest completion (32 yards), and they are next to last in yards per attempt (5.8).  Couple that with an offense that has the worst average time per drive (1:48), the lowest average yards per drive (21.4), and scores on only 22.5% of their offensive drives (second worst percentage in the league), and you see that the Eagles rushing attack was their savior last week by lengthening drives and allowing Bradford's short passing game to be effective.  Bradford is not throwing the ball far, but he can be effective if given short down and distances and a depleted secondary to throw against.  He will get the latter on Sunday as the Redskins will probably be missing their top two cornerbacks in Chris Culliver and DeAngelo Hall.  What the Redskins need to do is win the yardage battle on first down, contain the Eagles running attack, and support a depleted secondary by blitzing selectively.  If the Redskins become too blitz happy it may give Bradford easy pre-snap reads and the ability to catch them overcommitting against the run.  The Redskins defense should drop back to cover the medium to short passing routes and not leave their young corners on an island.  They will also need a big push from the defensive line to control the running game.  If Matthews and Sproles are able to do what the Giants did and put the Redskins defense in short third downs it may be a long day for the Redskins defense.

Limit the Eagles' Opportunities:  Sproles returned a punt last week, and the Eagles were also able to get a touchdown off of a Brandon Marshall fumble that gave them a short field to work with.  This allowed them to go up big on the Jets.  Special teams returns and turnovers are something that the Redskins may have a tough time avoiding, and it has nothing to do with Cousins's penchant for throwing interceptions. The Eagles Defense is forcing a turnover in one out of every five offensive possessions they face this season, which is third best in the league. They have only turned two of those turnovers into points, but in a game that could be a monsoon it does not bode well for the Redskins who have an interception prone quarterback, a rookie running back with a history of ball control issues, and a special teams unit that is just itching to give up a game breaking return.  Both offense and special teams need to be sharp if they are to limit big plays and execute the final key to success.

Ball Control/Cousins Bounce Back:  Cousins had a bad game last week, but he has shown better resiliency this season in coming back from mistakes within the game.  He will need to show that he can come back from game to game because the Redskins Offense faces another stout run defense.  The Eagles run defense is allowing the lowest yards per attempt in the league (3.1), and with the Redskins' offensive line possibly being without Morgan Moses, Kory Lichtensteiger, and Josh LeRibeus it could be another long day for the Redskins running attack.  Cousins will need to prove that he can throw the ball effectively and efficiently to take pressure off of the running game.  Jordan Reed is an easy person to mark as needing to have a big game, but also look for Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson to turn short passes into big gains with their legs that could keep the Eagles defense honest if they begin to crowd the line of scrimmage.  Jones and Morris should be given the ball early to give the Redskins favorable down and distance, but they also need to make sure they get positive yardage to give Cousins a chance to extend drives.  Chip K
elly's offense runs at a quick pace, and if the Redskins Defense is out there for too long they become more susceptible to big plays.  The Redskins need to run the ball over 25 times for at least 80 yards to be successful.  Anything less means they are not controlling the clock, Cousins is having to throw more, and the Redskins will not come out on top. 

This could be Thursday Night all over again.  Philly has the ability to stop the Redskins running attack and force Kirk Cousins into doing what he does best; throwing untimely interceptions. They also have the up-tempo offense needed to put the Redskins in a hole that will force them to throw if they get down by a fair margin.  The Eagles, though, have shown the ability to have crappy drives that give the ball back on downs.  The Redskins need to force Bradford to make decisions after the snap by dropping into coverage, and they need to control the ball with positive runs, accurate passes, and a little speed here and there from the likes of Thompson and Crowder.  This is going to be an ugly one, but all the Redskins need is a win and they will get it.

20-17 Redskins Win.

Redskins vs. Rams: Whose Afraid of the St. Louis Rams?

This is a fair question to ask.  What makes the St. Louis Rams so special that the Redskins need to put on brown pants to hide their fear from the viewing public?  Could it be because the Rams are 6-2 against the Redskins since 2005?  Could it be their mauling defense that has five first round picks in their front seven?  Is it because the Redskins feel some sense of buyers remorse for the RG3 trade? Whatever the reason may be, if you absorb the main stream sports media you would think that the '85 Bears were coming to FedEx Field on Sunday.  While the Rams have a good defense they are not without their flaws, but so are the Redskins, so it will take some semblance of game plan and coaching that the Jay Gruden led Redskins have yet to show over the past 17 games.  While the media seems caught up with sack numbers (the Rams' defensive lineman combined for 22.5 sacks last season and combined for another 5 against the Seahawks in Week 1) and cute monikers (The
Rams are the most physical/nasty/competitive 6-10 team you will ever meet) the Redskins should be looking at their personnel and saying, "F these guys.  We are just as tough as they are and here's how we are going to ball control our way to winning this game."

Big Receivers = Big Game: Pierre Garcon and/or Jordan Reed (if healthy) need to be the focal points of a ball control offensive plan that relies on possession receiving first.  The Rams lost five of seven games last season when they allowed a receiver who was over 6'0" tall and weighed more than 200 pounds to go over 80 yards receiving.  Garcon and Reed both fit this bill, and their possession skills need to be in full effect if the Redskins expect to win.  If Garcon or Reed can go for eighty plus yards with a 7-9 yard per catch average it means the Redskins are taking longer drives that are looking to keep the St. Louis offense off the field.  It is not out of the question either.  The Rams' intimidating sack numbers from last year look less intimidating when you consider that Miami had a lower Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (6.2) than the Rams (6.7) last season.  A breakdown of those averages shows that the Rams had only one more sack than the Ndamunkong Suh-less Dolphins and still gave up over 300 yards more in passing on only three more passing attempts than Miami last season.  Within that difference in attempts the Rams also allowed 30 more completions that the Dolphins, so the Rams showed they can be susceptible to a possession style passing game but it will only be effective if two things occur.

Positive Running/Long Passing: Alfred Morris silenced all the Matt Jones trumpets last week by proving he is one of the best running backs in the NFL at getting positive yardage in tight spaces.  He is not the type of back who will hit the hole and take it 60 yards to the house, but he has the agility and vision to go for four or more on every single carry.  The Redskins need to take advantage of that by putting themselves in 2nd or 3rd and less than 7 situations more often than not so they can exploit those plays for long pass gambles.  No Desean Jackson means that it is time for Jamison Crowder, Rashad Ross, or Ryan Grant to prove they are good for at least one big pass play per game from the slot.  My money is on Ross who looks to have the best speed of the three, and deserves a legitimate shot at being the short term replacement for Jackson as the resident burner for the Redskins' receiving corps.  Either way, the Redskins will win this game if they can complete a pass play of 40 yards or more at least once and if they can manage the down and distance on each drive by running Morris 20 times or more.  Whatever the case may be, it will be for naught if the Redskins' defense cannot wake up from the...........

Nightmare of Tight End Seem Routes, Running Back Screens, and Special Team Returns:  The two leading receivers for the Rams last week were tight end Jared Cook and running back Benjamin Cunningham.  Those two positions have given the Redskins defense fits in the past, and if they want to win on Sunday they need to limit the production of at least one of them. Quick.  Name the leading wide receiver in receiving yardage from last week.  I know you fantasy degenerates picked up Tavon Austin this week, but it was actually Stedman Bailey who led the Rams' wide receivers in receiving yards.  We need to limit Cook and Cunningham in the passing game and force the Rams receivers to beat us.  And since Tavon Austin already returned a punt for a touchdown last week, you can believe he is licking his chops against the Redskins.  No TD's allowed by the special teams will mean a win for them, even if a return is stopped at the one yard line it means the Special Teams did not give up a touchdown.  What would be even better is for the special teams to actually learn from their mistakes and not give up big returns.  If the Redskins defense cannot contain the non wide receivers in the passing game, or Austin has a big day on punt returns, it may be hard to vanquish the Rams.

So who is afraid of the St. Louis Rams?  The Redskins shouldn't be.  The Rams should not be taken lightly, but statistically their defense is not any better than Miami.  If Washington can get a possession game going with a combination of Garcon, Reed, and Morris while getting one or two big plays and containing the Rams' running back and tight ends, we may be sitting at 1-1 going into New York next week.