Redskins vs Patriots: "You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss"

Words of wisdom from Omar Little that the Redskins would be wise to heed tomorrow as they take the field in Foxboro for the first time in eight years; and we all remember what happened that day.  Not much has changed has changed since that fateful day. The Patriots still do what they do best: win.  The Redskins still do what they do best: play as inconsistently as possible to always keep a sense of hope within the fan base that will ultimately be crushed at the end of the season.  The pundits believe in these roles so much that they write headlines like these on their websites about this game.  And why shouldn't they?  The Patriots have trailed in only three games this season for a grand total of 36:58 of game time.  That means that the Patriots have been trailing for only 8% of their 2015 season, and the Patriots' home win/loss numbers with Tom Brady starting are even more staggering.  The last time Tom Brady lost at home was December 16, 2013 against the 49ers.  In fact, since Tom Brady became the starter in 2001 he has only lost 13 games at Gillette Stadium, and he has only lost three home game since 2010.  So everyone treating this game as an automatic win for the Patriots should rest easy.  If the Redskins plan on not making this game a laugher like the last one they must be better than they have been all season, and if they want to do what only three teams have done in Foxboro in the last five years they must not miss in any facet of the game.  It is a long shot, but here is how they could possibly shock the world.

The Guessing Game:  Question 1:  Who is the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL this season?  Obviously it is Kirk Cous......wait, what?  You're not hallucinating.  Kirk Cousins has only been sacked 8 times this season which is the second least amount of sacks in the NFL behind the Jets.  The Patriots' defense has 26 sacks this season which is good for second best in the league, so the Redskins will have their hands full protecting Cousins this week.  Question 2: Which team has allowed more passing yards this season?  That's right.  The Patriots have allowed 142 more passing yards this season than the Redskins, probably because they have been bludgeoning teams so bad that they have to throw the ball.  Question 3: Who is giving up more rushing yards per game this season?  Of course it is the Redskins.  Washington is giving up the third most rushing yards per game this season, which means that we may see a more run heavy attack from New England to start this game.  With no real threat being posed by the Redskins on paper, it may not be out of the question for the Pats to come out running to see if they can control the one part of the game where the Redskins have the advantage.

Time Is  The Only Thing On The Redskins' Side:  The Redskins' average offensive drive is lasting 25 seconds longer than the Patriots.  If the Redskins expect to be anywhere close to winning they must have that type of ball control though short passing and manageable down and keeping manageable down and distance.  Look for Cousins to be true to his league lowest yards per completion (9.3) and third lowest yards per attempt (6.5) numbers by throwing short passes to control the clock.  Short passes may also lull the Patriots into a false sense of security and allow the Redskins to go over the top.  If the Redskins cannot connect on a pass play longer than 30 yards we may be in trouble. And for all the criticism about the Redskins running woes, as long as they are getting positive yardage it is a good thing.  The Redskins must be going forward at all times and keep the distance for every down in the single digits while controlling the clock.  As long as the game is close, the Redskins should feed the ball to Morris and Jones at least 20 times combined considering that the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per attempt and have faced the third lowest number of rushing attempts so far this season due to their dominance. 

Patriots Dominance:  The Patriots are scoring on 55.6% of their drives this season and only turning the ball over on 3.7% of their drives which is best in the league for both stats.  They have the second best yards per play average in the league (6.3) and the third best yards per drive (35.9).  Oh, and they are averaging a league best 35.6 points per game.  All of this means that the Redskins will be going up against the best, and they need to play a boring, methodical, and perfect game to win.

This will be a battle to see if the Redskins can execute the short game and grind the Patriots down.  New England is scoring every other time they touch the ball, so the Redskins need to control the time of possession through short throws and hard fought runs.  Expect to see a lot of Pierre Garcon as he is the best receiver the Redskins have in tough short yardage situations, and watch for Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder to get a lot of looks in the short medium range.  Defensively they need to not miss chances.  They will not stop the Patriots offense, but when they get their chance to stop them on third down, get an interception, recover a fumble, get a sack, they must execute.  No fancy stats for the defense because if we go by stats the Redskins defense has no chance.  This game will be won on the words of Omar Little, and I'm going with a blind homer pick for this game.  Cousins is able to march the offense methodically down the field and the defense comes up with one big turnover that is the difference in the game.

Redskins win 28-27