Redskins vs. Eagles 2: The Showcase Showdown

 

Kirk.......Cousins! Come on Down! You're the next contestant on The Price is Right for a Quarterback Who is Improving Through A Season to the Point of Leading the League in Some Statistical Categories, But Not the Categories That Drive High Contract Prices, But Gets You In the Position for the Playoffs That You Were Not Expecting So You Have to Pay Him or Else He'll Go Somewhere Else That Will Pay Him That Much Money And Psychologically You Will Not Be Able to Deal With That Kind Of Rejection.  That's not too long of a title for a game show, right? I'll also lay the rhetoric on thick by asking the question; Doesn't this weekend's game between the Eagles and the Redskins seem like one of those bad endings to The Price is Right?  Two people at the end of the show who beat out the old lady at the wheel who everyone was pulling for (the Dallas Cowboys) all just to get a shot at 2 jet skis or a trip to the Grand Canyon. It does.  All except for the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing for a contract.  If you believe the canon being spewed out by the powers that be, Cousins will be back in DC regardless of the outcome of this season.  The question is price.  The Redskins have the first bid in this Showcase Showdown, and if they beat the Eagles on Saturday Night you can believe that Cousins will fetch north of $20 Million per year solely on the fact that another team (Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis) will pay that much for his services.  But if the Redskins balk at the jet skies because it is highly regulated on the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay, it leaves room for the Eagles to swoop in and rain on Kirk Cousins' $20 Million Dollar Parade.  Here is what the Redskins need to do to ensure that they secure their first playoff berth in three years:

Nail Jell-O to the Wall: The Redskins running attack has gone through peaks and valleys this season.  Their run game has come under specific fire after the Rams game in Week 2 for not being dynamic enough, but in all of The Redskins' last four wins they have been able to amass at least 99 yards of rushing or more.  The first war on record where the casualties from combat outnumbered the casualties from disease and famine was the Russo-Japanese War of the early 20th Century.  Why?   Because the combat code of the Japanese (the Bushido) called for Japanese soldiers to have honor and die in combat so they would keep charging the Russians until they all died or they won. The Redskins would do well to heed this "stick to your solution at all costs" mentality as the running game can open up the passing game.  Keeping the down and distance manageable and continually coming at your opponent with the same tactics regardless of outcome or success will lead to a degradation of the Eagles' will.  The Redskins need to run the football, regardless of their yards per carry average.  Alfred Morris and Matt Jones will provide enough  support so that all other parts of the team will be able to function.  The one area where the Redskins outstrip the Eagles statistically is in time of possession.  Feed the ball to Morris and Jones on first and second down and good things will happen.  The Redskins will possess the ball and keep the Eagles in a constant stat of panic. This will only work if the Defense does its' job.

Limit Big Plays: Listen to these statistical anomalies.  1) The Redskins' Defense is giving up a higher yards per completion rate than the Eagles, but they are giving up a lower yards per game rate than the Eagles.  2)  The Eagles' passing yards per attempt is 0.6 yards less than the Redskins 3)  The Redskins are giving up more yards per attempt than yards per game in the running attack than the Eagles. Translation?  The Redskins give up big plays.  Look no further than last week where the Bills hit on two plays of 40 yards or more in the second half to make a game of what was otherwise a rout conducted by both the Redskins' offense and defense.  Also, the Eagles relied on two plays of 39 yards or more to keep pace with the Redskins in their first meeting of the season.  If the Redskins expect to win they will need to limit the pays of 40 yards or more, and have their defense pester Sam Bradford into turning the ball over  a whopping 15.2%, which is good for 5th highest TO% in the league.  Otherwise, the Eagles and Redskins seem evenly matched and it will come down to a matter of wills.

Win and You're In:  The narrative all throughout the preseason was how the Redskins need to rebuild, with very few people touting the talent that the Redskins compiled in the offseason (all of it is good, but read the last paragraph).  Now we find ourselves bidding first in a Showcase Showdown for the NFC East Title, in a venue and a timeslot that has not been hospitable to us in the past.  The last time the Redskins won at Lincoln Financial Field was with Robert Griffin in 2012, and we do not need to rehash the Redskins' impotence once the sun goes down.  But four months ago we were saying that six wins would be a successful season.  The Redskins have eclipsed that mark and now are one win away from making it to the playoffs.  It will not be easy against the Eagles, and I see a back and forth game for the first half.  But the Redskins' offense will prove too much to deal with, and the Redskins pass rush will eventually wear down Sam Bradford to the point of him making some costly mistakes in the second half.  Get ready HTTR nation.  We will not have to wait another decade to see a home playoff game.

Redskins Win: 30-21

Redskins vs. Bills: A Game of Unexpected Significance

When the 2015 NFL Schedule was released on April 23, anyone who was not a patient at St. Elizabeth's Hospital probably reacted to the announcement that the Redskins would play the Bills on December 20 the same way The Dude reacted to the Sheriff of Malibu.  I guess John Hinckley gets the last laugh now as the Bills come to town on Sunday with a nothing to lose attitude spiced up by that sliver of playoff hope the experts dub "not mathematically eliminated", while the Redskins come into this game with more to play for than anyone in HTTR nation could have expected seven months ago.  The most notable of these unexpected gems is a chance at the playoffs, but there are fringe story lines that will play a big part in the narrative on Sunday.  First, the Redskins have the opportunity to finish with their best home record since 2005.  There has not been much to cheer for at FedEx Field over the past decade, but the last two years in particular have exponentially exacerbated the jaded feeling Redskins fans get when they know that four hours of their Sunday will be spent in traffic on I-495 just to see their favorite team lose.  This season has been a godsend for Redskins fans who want to see their team win at home and win when there are playoff implications on the line.  Finally, the Sports Junkies reminded me on Friday morning that this could possibly be the last home game for Robert Griffin as a Redskin.  Barring any crazy finish to the season, one can assume that Dan Snyder will want to save his $16 Million and let Robert Griffin walk at the end of this season.  That means that Griffin's last home game in DC will be spent in street clothes.  A far cry from three years ago where he was being heralded as the savior of this franchise, and now he must watch helplessly as the Cain to his Abel leads the Redskins to a possible playoff berth. The Bills will not be an easy out, though, so here is what the Redskins should be focusing on to continue their playoff run:

Beware the Read Option: The Redskins will face an all too familiar foe this Sunday in LeSean McCoy, but they have never faced him with a quarterbacking counterpart as versatile as Tyrod Taylor.  Buffalo boasts the third best rushing yards per game (141.8) and per rushing attempt (4.7) in the league so far, while the Redskins' defense is giving up the fourth worst yards per attempt in the league (4.6).  To make matters worse, the Redskins have traditionally done a poor job of defending the read option.  That was on display last week where 55 of Chicago's 87 rushing yards came in the second half when the Bears started to run a more read option style running attack, and no one is really worried that Jay Cutler is going to burn you for big yardage on the ground.  But McCoy and Taylor can, so guys like Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy need to be disciplined enough to not over pursue and keep the running attack contained, and guys like Will Compton and Perry Riley need to be good about wrapping up and not getting out of position. Otherwise we may see a big day for McCoy and Taylor on the ground.  Taylor will also play a big role in the passing game.

Precision Vs. Efficiency in the Passing Game: This game will highlight two quarterbacks who have very quietly carved out a niche for themselves in the discussion of good quarterbacking play this season.  Neither of these quarterbacks would be dubbed "elite", and neither will overwhelm you with the big stats like total yards and touchdowns.  What they have done is quietly moved themselves into the top 10 in statistical categories that pits precision against efficiency this weekend at FedEx Field. 
Kirk Cousins is precise.  He has been the most accurate quarterback this season putting up a league leading completion percentage of 69.2%, and he is in the top 10 in passes completed and passes completed per game.  Detractors will point to the fact that he is throwing shorter routes, but he is making good decisions and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers more often than naught.  Cousins has been able to win because of his precision, but Taylor has been able to win because he is efficient.  Taylor has the fifth highest quarterback rating this season at 100.9, which is better than both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.  He is also fifth in yards per attempt and sixth in yards per completion, and doing this without being in the top 10 in total attempts or yards.  This means that Taylor is throwing the ball long, completing the ball long, and not making many mental errors in his throwing game.  This will be a test of who can make the least amount of mistakes, while at the same time being the best in their respective statistical categories.  Kirk Cousins will need to be true to his completion percentage in order to keep drives alive, and Taylor will need to be completing long passes to force the Redskins out of their methodical offensive pace. 

Win And You're In: Here we are again.  The Redskins find themselves in a must win game to keep pace with a suddenly resurgent Eagles and Giants on their heels.  The Redskins faced a similar opportunity two weeks ago on Monday Night against the Cowboys, when they had a chance to pull away from the rest of the NFC East.  Instead we got a classic Redskins boner performance in prime time. Now they face a very dangerous Bills team that could turn this game into a track meet if the Redskins decide not to show up. The Redskins will give up big yards on the ground, but they will not allow the Bills to get into the end zone and force more field goals than touchdowns.  The Redskins will win by doing the opposite, and scoring touchdowns for every Buffalo field goal.  The Redskins will win, which will set up a huge match against the Eagles next week.

Redskins win: 28-23

Redskins vs. Eagles: Redskins Must Not Revive Another Nemesis's Season

Do you know what nemesis means? One of the Redskins' nemeses got theirs last Thursday night as the Redskins began to fill their obligatory annual quota of bad losses in big situations that revive the other team's season.  The Redskins gave a reprieve to another floundering Giants team last Thursday night and breathed life into their otherwise pathetic season.  We will see if that win means anything to the Giants, but after a week of high hopes and nickname contests for the Redskins running back tandem HTTR nation was brought back down to Earth after the loss to the Giants.  Now all the cynicism and insecurities have been running rampant for the last 10 days as another nemesis comes to town looking for a little pick me up for their season.  The Eagles offense finally came through last week, and they look to a Redskins team in limbo and a soggy FedEx Field to resuscitate their chances at an NFC East title.  The Redskins were too happy to oblige the Giants when they were in dire need of a win, and the Eagles present a style of play that could wreak havoc on an injury ridden Redskins team. The weather will also produce challenges of its own, but the Redskins must trust in their system and know that the Eagles' flaws are gaping and could be exploited to great effect.  The keys to this game are as follows:

Let Sam Bradford Throw The Ball:  Just do not let the Eagles running attack get going.  The Eagles win last week was predicated on Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles running for 123 yards last week and taking the pressure off of Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing offense that has been statistically abysmal this season.  They are tied for last in the league in yards per completion (9.3) and longest completion (32 yards), and they are next to last in yards per attempt (5.8).  Couple that with an offense that has the worst average time per drive (1:48), the lowest average yards per drive (21.4), and scores on only 22.5% of their offensive drives (second worst percentage in the league), and you see that the Eagles rushing attack was their savior last week by lengthening drives and allowing Bradford's short passing game to be effective.  Bradford is not throwing the ball far, but he can be effective if given short down and distances and a depleted secondary to throw against.  He will get the latter on Sunday as the Redskins will probably be missing their top two cornerbacks in Chris Culliver and DeAngelo Hall.  What the Redskins need to do is win the yardage battle on first down, contain the Eagles running attack, and support a depleted secondary by blitzing selectively.  If the Redskins become too blitz happy it may give Bradford easy pre-snap reads and the ability to catch them overcommitting against the run.  The Redskins defense should drop back to cover the medium to short passing routes and not leave their young corners on an island.  They will also need a big push from the defensive line to control the running game.  If Matthews and Sproles are able to do what the Giants did and put the Redskins defense in short third downs it may be a long day for the Redskins defense.

Limit the Eagles' Opportunities:  Sproles returned a punt last week, and the Eagles were also able to get a touchdown off of a Brandon Marshall fumble that gave them a short field to work with.  This allowed them to go up big on the Jets.  Special teams returns and turnovers are something that the Redskins may have a tough time avoiding, and it has nothing to do with Cousins's penchant for throwing interceptions. The Eagles Defense is forcing a turnover in one out of every five offensive possessions they face this season, which is third best in the league. They have only turned two of those turnovers into points, but in a game that could be a monsoon it does not bode well for the Redskins who have an interception prone quarterback, a rookie running back with a history of ball control issues, and a special teams unit that is just itching to give up a game breaking return.  Both offense and special teams need to be sharp if they are to limit big plays and execute the final key to success.

Ball Control/Cousins Bounce Back:  Cousins had a bad game last week, but he has shown better resiliency this season in coming back from mistakes within the game.  He will need to show that he can come back from game to game because the Redskins Offense faces another stout run defense.  The Eagles run defense is allowing the lowest yards per attempt in the league (3.1), and with the Redskins' offensive line possibly being without Morgan Moses, Kory Lichtensteiger, and Josh LeRibeus it could be another long day for the Redskins running attack.  Cousins will need to prove that he can throw the ball effectively and efficiently to take pressure off of the running game.  Jordan Reed is an easy person to mark as needing to have a big game, but also look for Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson to turn short passes into big gains with their legs that could keep the Eagles defense honest if they begin to crowd the line of scrimmage.  Jones and Morris should be given the ball early to give the Redskins favorable down and distance, but they also need to make sure they get positive yardage to give Cousins a chance to extend drives.  Chip K
elly's offense runs at a quick pace, and if the Redskins Defense is out there for too long they become more susceptible to big plays.  The Redskins need to run the ball over 25 times for at least 80 yards to be successful.  Anything less means they are not controlling the clock, Cousins is having to throw more, and the Redskins will not come out on top. 

This could be Thursday Night all over again.  Philly has the ability to stop the Redskins running attack and force Kirk Cousins into doing what he does best; throwing untimely interceptions. They also have the up-tempo offense needed to put the Redskins in a hole that will force them to throw if they get down by a fair margin.  The Eagles, though, have shown the ability to have crappy drives that give the ball back on downs.  The Redskins need to force Bradford to make decisions after the snap by dropping into coverage, and they need to control the ball with positive runs, accurate passes, and a little speed here and there from the likes of Thompson and Crowder.  This is going to be an ugly one, but all the Redskins need is a win and they will get it.

20-17 Redskins Win.