The Caps Winning The Stanley Cup Has Killed DC Fandom

What are DC Sports Fans supposed to do now?  The Capitals historic win on Thursday Night eradicated all of what being a fan of DC Sports is all about.  Pain.  Misery.  Self Loathing.  Getting high off of crazy preseason optimism knowing that it will all come crashing down in some horrible self fulfilling prophecy in the playoffs.  Doing simple arithmetic to show others how you have never seen, or were too young to remember, a professional championship in DC.  All of that is gone now.  What is left is something that will define the type of fan base this city truly has and whether it is ready to support sports teams through genuine fandom, or if their support only goes as far as frenzied feelings of FOMO.

DC Fans seemed to take the frivolous statement from Michael Wilbon, that Washington DC was a "minor league sports town", a little too much to heart, and they were a little too quick to point to the outpouring of fans at the Caps viewing party Thursday night as evidence to the contrary.  While it was amazing to see how many people came out to support the Caps, many of those people were there to be a part of the scene rather than show their enduring support for a team they have cheered for for years.  Stories were abound about how these Stanley Cup Playoff Games were the first hockey games that a lot of these people watched, and they went down to Capital One Arena on Thursday simply because they did not want to miss out on the festivities.  But winning a championship does not instantaneously turn these people into regular fans.  Just ask the Carolina Hurricanes how many interlopers from their 2006 Stanley Cup Championship are still there.  Or look at the Miami Marlins, who would kill for a quarter of the people who jumped on their bandwagon in 1997 and 2003 to still be there today.  DC Sports fans now find themselves in a similar situation.  The Capitals have drawn in multitudes of fans to their cause, but mostly due to fear of missing out on a social scene.  It will take more than that to prove Michael Wilbon wrong, and now it is time to see if DC Fandom truly has what it takes to foster a genuine "sports town" atmosphere.

The Capitals have removed the security blanket from DC Fans by winning the Stanley Cup.  For so long the narrative has been that it is hard to develop a genuine sports culture in DC because of so much ineptitude, impotence, and playoff tragedies galore from all the DC professional sports teams.  Most of that has been washed away by the Capitals victory on Thursday night.  Fans were witness to a team that was intelligently put together and mentored throughout the season.  They saw the likes of Max Scherzer, Ryan Zimmerman, and Derrius Guice show their support for the Caps on their run to the Cup.  The teams are doing all they can to create a unified sense among all the different teams and superstars, and now they have at least one championship to show for this shared unity.  It is now on the fans of Washington DC to show that they will show long term support for a team like the Capitals because they love the sport, and not because they love the number of Instagram likes they get when they post stuff with #ALLCAPS.  DC Fans now must show that they can evolve from a fan base of self loathing to one that can legitimately support their teams by watching games and becoming informed fans, and not just jump on every time a championship rolls around.  The Capitals have put the onus on DC Fans to prove that this city can be more than an event driven town that fluctuates based on the level of attention each sport will bring to the individual.  DC fans need to show that this city can be one with an informed fan base that will continue to grow in mass no matter what time of year it is.  If this does not happen, then maybe DC is just a minor league sports town, but we know now that it is not because of the nature of the teams.  It is the nature of the fans.  

Ovechkin's Legend Continues To Grow

Very few fan bases get to witness a legend being made right before their eyes.  Even fewer get to see that happen to someone who has already established themselves as one of the greatest players to ever play their sport, but that is what Capitals fans have witnessed over the last two playoff series.  Alex Ovechkin continued his march out of his stat compiler purgatory on Wednesday Night by winning a Game 7 on the road to win the Eastern Conference Championship.  That win caused a frenzied scene in DC that was a personification of the frustration that DC Sports Fans have felt over the last 25 years without cheering for a team in a championship capacity.  DC fans, though, should not see Ovechkin's feats this year in the playoffs as merely a necessary means to break an arbitrary curse.  They should appreciate it for what it is; one of the greatest players of his generation finally getting the chance to fulfill his destiny in a Washington Capitals uniform.  Few fan bases get to see something like this because it is not the normal way that sports legends are made.

When a player gets drafted to be the savior of a franchise it usually does not take them as long, or go through as arduous of a career, as Alex Ovechkin has to make good on that promise.  Usually the savior comes in and within 5-8 years they lead their team into a position to win a championship.  Look at Jordan, Lebron, Gretzky, Bonds, Kobe, Crosby (sorry Caps fans, but its true), or Peyton Manning.  These greats had early growing pains, but within a short time frame they were able to lead their teams to the championship rounds, and most of them were able to win it all.  Even stat mongers like Dan Marino and Karl Malone were able to get to the gates of promised land early on, even if they were never able to finish the job. Capitals fans, though, are watching a unique career arc that has made this Stanley Cup berth all the more special.  For twelve years Alex Ovechkin has garnered numerous individual accolades without even having a chance to compete for a Conference Championship.  He has had to persevere through numerous coaching changes, accusations of lax work ethic, yearnings from the fan base to trade him from Washington, and countless epithets about  how his time to win a championship had passed.  He now finds himself with a new centerpiece for his dining room table and chance to give Caps fans a storied career that no other fan base has witnessed.

This blog has written about Alex Ovechkin's championship futility time and again, and what it means for his place in the annals of DC Sports History.  If Ovechkin is able to win the Stanley Cup this year it will solidify him as the greatest athlete the DC area has ever seen.  Ovechkin has become one of the greatest goal scorers of all time, and he has taken a niche franchise and made it the toast of the town.  Even the Redskins are taking a back seat for the next two weeks as the Capitals try to bring the first professional championship to Washington DC in a quarter century.  Ovechkin has ignited the entire city, and he has drawn even the most novice of DC Sports fan into the Capitals' orbit through his perseverance through adversity.  No other major sports figure played 12 years in the same city and fought through countless write offs to finally deliver their fan base from misery.  Now he has the chance to achieve a level of greatness that no other sports figure has attained within the DC area, and he could give DC Fans a storied career that is unique to the DC Fan experience.  As the Caps take the ice in Las Vegas on Monday Night, Caps fans should keep in mind that Ovechkin has already made them privy to a unique making of a hockey legend and bringing a Stanley Cup to Washington will make them witness to the crowning of the new king of DC Sports. 

In the Pens Series the Magic Number for the Caps is One

The collective thought process going through the Capitals fan base after Monday Night's series clinching win over the Blue Jackets was a sarcastic "Here we go again".  For the third straight year, the Capitals will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Caps fans let the hockey world know how they feel about this match up the only way they know how to deal with their emotions.  Cynical passive aggressiveness.  Caps fans are inundating the DC Sports landscape with sayings like "Get ready for another Game 7 loss", "I guess the Pens win the cup again this year", and "We better win in 5 games, otherwise we are not winning the series".  Caps fans already resigned themselves to being disappointed once they saw that a black and gold 87 would be on the opposing side in the second round, but the fan base's cynicism is not without warrant.  The numbers for the Caps vs. Pens playoff history have been bandied about over the past 48 hours, and none really favor the Capitals (quick note: most of these numbers came from Pensburgh Blog.  Please check it out for a good history of this playoff match up).  The Capitals are 1-9 against the Pens all time in playoff series, yet they are 8-2 in Game 1 of those series and they blew a 2-0 series lead in 2009.  The Pens are 4-0 against the Caps in Game 7's, and they are 11-2 against the Caps in playoff overtime games.  Finally, in all five (yes, get depressed Caps fans, FIVE) of Pittsburgh's Stanley Cup Championship runs they have defeated the Capitals en route to the promised land.  All of these numbers equate to good reasons for Caps fans to be cynical about this upcoming match up, but there is only one number that should be coursing through the Capitals' mind right now.  One.

The number one should be on the Capitals' minds because for the first time in the playoffs it feels as if the Caps have that one thing, that one guy, that all Stanley Cup Contenders seem to have once the playoffs roll around.  They have that one hot goaltender who finds his stride come the playoffs.  They have that one guy who comes out of nowhere to make significant contributions no one saw coming (Chandler Stephenson).  They have that one guy everyone forgot was really good, and now is showing everyone why he is really good through playoff production (John Carlson).  They have that one line that seems to have "it" whenever they are on the ice, and one that can give production outside of the superstars on the team (Connolly-Eller-DSP).  They have that one guy who is not going to take shit from anybody and prove it by knocking heads and putting points on the board (Tom Wilson).  They have that one superstar who can come through in the clutch (Nick Backstrom).  They have the one superstar who has proven why he is the greatest in the most important game of the playoffs to date.  Finally, the Caps have that one thing that has been lacking in all other playoff runs this past decade.  Grit.  These Capitals have a sense about them this year that they will never give up.  It has been honed throughout the season and it was on full display in the series against Columbus.  The 2-0 comeback, the double overtime goal in Game 3, the relentless penalty kill the last 4 games, Backstrom's OT redirect goal in Game 5, Stephenson's short handed goal in Game 6.  All of this shows how this Capitals team will not be fazed by adversity as easily has they have been in the past, and that is a good thing because the one thing that is most important in this upcoming series with the Pens is more tangible than grit.  Winning.

All it will take is one victory.  One time for Alex Ovechkin to get the better of his nemesis to make the fan base believe in themselves again.  It does not matter how many times the Penguins have ousted the Capitals in the past, all the Caps need to do is win this one series against their most hated rival to give the fan base back some dignity.  One time where Caps fans get to celebrate in their own building, their own city, and not have to watch this travesty again.  There have been too many times over the past decade where Caps fans' hopes have been dashed in gut wrenching fashion in the playoffs, but all of those don't matter now.  All that matter is that the Caps win this one series, one game at at time, to give Caps fans something to come back at Pens fans with when the discussion of playoff success comes up.  The Caps need to win this one series so that Ovechkin can say he got the better of Sidney Crosby at least once when it really mattered.  Finally, the Caps need to win this one series in order to break the playoff futility of all DC Sports in order to give the fan base the one thing they want.  The chance to see their team play for a championship.

The Capitals Are Winning With Grit

It is hard to believe that it has been ten years since this all started.  Ten years since the Rock the Red era truly began and engulfed the DC market.  Ten years since the Caps were left for dead in the middle of November, only to be resurrected by Bruce Boudreau's high flying style of hockey that led them to a Southeast Division Championship.  Since that time the Caps have regularly enjoyed the pinnacles of success throughout the regular season, only to be disappointed time and again once the playoffs rolled around.  Even the 2007-2008 Capitals, for all the moxie they displayed throughout that season, could not get out of the first round of the playoffs.  The determination of that '07-'08 team, though, is what separates them from the rest of the Caps teams that have won over the past decade.  That team had to scrap for a majority of the season to put themselves in a position to win a division title.  All the other subsequent iterations of the Capitals rested on the laurels of their talent, and high expectations, to carry them to success without developing a true sense of grit.  Until this season.

For the first time in ten years, the Capitals came into this season with very low expectations.  Another playoff exit at the hands of the Penguins, coupled with the exodus of numerous high profile free agents, led everyone to the conclusion that the Capitals' window of success had closed.  Even die hard Caps fans had to take a serious look at the game program on opening day to know who the hell was starting, and most fans expected this new combination of players to be inferior to what they had seen in the recent past.  The fans' reservations about the team were confirmed early on, but the Caps have fought through that adversity in a way nobody expected to find themselves at the top of the Metropolitan Division in an equally inexplicable manner.  Just look at the stats.  The Capitals are 24th in the league in Corsi% (47.82%), which means they are giving up significantly more shots on goal than they put on their opponents net.  They are the only division leader that has under 100 points, and their +15 goal differential is the lowest of any team that has 90 points or more.  They have the 5th worst penalty differential at -32, meaning they are taking way more penalties than they are drawing.  Finally, their PDO stat (Save% + Shooting%, which traditionally has been an indirect indicator of luck) of 101.62 is 5th best in the league.  So the Caps are leading the most competitive division in the NHL with a low goal differential relative to their point total while taking numerous penalties and benefiting from a wee bit of puck luck. What gives?  The answer lies in the grit that the Capitals have developed over the course of this season.

Despite the high roster turnover and low expectations stemming from the end of last season, the Capitals have been able to organically develop a sense of resiliency through all players needing to prove themselves.  New forwards like Chandler Stephenson, Devante Smith-Pelly, and Alex Chiasson had to prove that they belong on a high caliber team such as the Capitals.  Jakub Vrana had to prove that his skill set warranted him being a regular second line starter.  Brett Connolly needed to prove that he was not a one-hit-free-agent wonder.  Christian Djoos needed to prove that he could replace both the offensive and defensive skills that left the Capitals defense after last seasons.  Grubauer needed to prove that Vegas made a mistake in passing on him in the supplemental draft, and subsequently Holtby continues to need to prove he is still the number one goalie in DC.  Finally, the superstars of the team needed to prove that the real skill of the team did not leave Washington, and that they could keep the window of success open so long as they wear a red sweater.  All of these sentiments have coalesced into a team that is not phased by close games, and one that has come out on top in those games more often than naught through resiliency rather than skill level.  Maybe the advanced stats are right, and that the Capitals have just been the benefit of luck throughout this season.  And maybe the Caps will continue to be susceptible to teams like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay who have the speed and skill through the middle that have haunted this team in the playoffs in years past.  But unlike other seasons, the Capitals have not tried to manufacture success.  For the first time in ten years, they have developed a mentality from within that has galvanized the team in a way that has made them ready for whatever challenges arise at the end of this season.  It is still not even a given that the Capitals will make the playoffs this season, but the Capitals have the one thing necessary to handle all situations.  Grit.

Alex Ovechkin Will Make History By Not Winning

Alex Ovechkin has cemented a legacy in this area that can only be eclipsed by a certain few, and those people barely touched a hockey rink in their entire lives.  He is the greatest professional athlete the DC area has witnessed in the last 20 years, and his dominance within his sport has not been seen in this area since Walter Johnson pitched for the Washington Senators.  Proof of this omnipotence will be on display over the next week when Ovechkin scores the 600th goal of his career, and it could be on display over the next two months if Ovechkin is able to reach the 50 goal mark for the season and win his seventh Rocket Richard Trophy.  All of these accomplishments, though, will be eclipsed by Ovechkin's inability to win the one thing that could vault him into the position of "Greatest DC Sports Figure"; winning the Stanley Cup.

Ovechkin will set numerous milestones when he scores his 600th goal, hopefully in the next few games, and hopefully in front of the Capital One Arena crowd.  Ovechkin will become the 20th player in NHL history to score 600 goals.  Even more impressive is that he will be only the sixth player to score 600 goals with one franchise.  The others are Bobby Hull with Chicago (604), Joe Sackic with Quebec/Colorado (625), Mario Lemieux with Pittsburgh (690), Steve Yzerman with Detroit (692), and the great Gordie Howe with Detroit (786).  That is elite company, but given the lack of credentials Ovechkin carries he must be lumped in with a not so illustrious section of this fraternity.  When Ovechkin scores his 600th goal he will be one of five players to have scored 600 goals and not won a Stanley Cup in their career.  The others are Dino Ciccarelli, Jerome Iginla, Mike Gartner, and Macel Dionne.  Even more depressing is the fact that Ovechkin will be  one of only three players to have scored 600 goals and never reached the Stanley Cup Finals.  Gartner and Dionne never made it to a Stanley Cup Final in their career, although an asterisk needs to be put next to Gartner as he was traded away from the 1994 Rangers that eventually won the Stanley Cup. So Ovechkin will set precedents for both career glory and futility when he tingles the twine for the 600th time in his NHL career, and this paradox only thickens when looking at more seasonal accomplishments.

Two years ago, Alex Ovechkin became only the 11th player in NHL history to score 50 goals in a season at age 30 or older.  The last player to do that before Ovechkin was Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006. Ovechkin has been bucking the trend in an era that is supposed to be unfavorable to goal scorers, and if he can reach the 50 goal plateau again this season he will once again find himself in unique company.  Only Marcel Dionne, Phil Esposito, Mario Lemieux, and Bobby Hull had multiple 50 goal seasons at age 30 or older, and Ovechkin stands to join their ranks this season.  But if he accomplishes this task, Ovechkin will join Marcel Dionne as the only Non-Stanley Cup winners of this group.  Even if Ovechkin cannot reach 50 goals this season, he is currently leading the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy with 40 goals.  If Ovechkin stays a top the goal scoring leader board it will be his seventh Richard Trophy of his career.  The Rocket Richard Trophy has only been given out since 1998, but it does not look good when its' most decorated recipient is one of only two players who have received this trophy and never even played in a Stanley Cup Final.  The other is Jonathan Cheechoo.  Once again Ovechkin's goal scoring will make history for both good and bad reasons, but for all the career futility that has been outlined here there is one caveat the Ovechkin has in his favor.  He is still playing.

Ovechkin leads a Capitals team that was not supposed to be where they are this season.  Last year was supposed to be the Caps' best chance to win the Stanley Cup, but they fell short again and a large chunk of their talented core left Washington.  Taking their place was a group of unknowns that has only put the Caps in a position to win their division against staggering statistical odds.  The Caps have the 6th worst 5v5 Corsi Against total this season, which means they give up a ton of shots on net at even strength.  They are 8th worst in 5v5 Corsi +/- (-248) and Corsi% (47.99) meaning that they are allowing a lot more shots on their net as they are putting on their opponents net at even strength.  And if you're looking for salvation in the power play, it may dishearten you to know that the Capitals have the 5th worst penalty differential in the league at -32, meaning that they have taken 32 more penalties than they have drawn this season.  And yet they are only one point out of the Metro Division lead, and three points out of being the third best team in the Eastern Conference.  This Capitals team may be forging and identity that it has not had in a long time, and Alex Ovechkin will be at the forefront of it.

This could be Ovechkin's chance to not just make history through his goal scoring, but to also make history through playoff success.  He has captained high flying teams in the past that have underachieved, but now he is at the helm of a team that is building its identity organically for the first time in almost a decade.  This team has built its own expectations rather than having lofty ones bestowed upon them from day one, and that may be the formula that gets the Capitals going to the next level.  The team has faced massive adversity at numerous times this season, and yet they are still firmly entrenched within the playoff hunt despite inconsistent play and shaky goal tending.  Building success from within seems to have been lacking in the Capitals ever since they shocked the world in making the playoffs in 2008, and it may be the formula that takes Alex Ovechkin to the team success that has eluded him his entire career.  Ovechkin currently leads an opportunistic team with an elite goal tender with something to prove that has had a chip on its shoulder about its playoff futility for a decade.  If Ovechkin cannot embody that sense of grit and lead this team to a championship, then he may be the first NHL player to make history for what he did not win for his city and fan base.

The Pathology of DC Sports

Last Thursday Night the Nationals found a new way to rip the heart out of all of DC Sports fans.  Once again we had to watch one of our favored teams lose at home in a deciding series game that continued the playoff misery of all DC Sports teams since 1998.  For those of you living in a hole over the past 18 months, that is the last time any professional DC Sports team (The Capitals) made it to a Conference Final.  That point has been particularly sensitive recently, as the Nationals loss marks the third time in less than four months that a DC sports team has dropped a deciding series game that would have put them into their respective Conference Final.  That is what makes this situation so hard to comprehend.  No American Sports City with three or more "Big 4" sports teams has ever seen futility like this before, and it should not be classified simply as just another sports "curse".  This goes far beyond what classic sports terminology can explain, and it should be dissected in order to come up with a title fitting for the uniqueness of the situation.  Lets start by addressing the scale of this phenomenon.

This "curse" (I'll use that term for now) is unique in that it has impacted all four teams that call Washington DC their home.  All other sports curses have been relegated to specific teams within a given city.  While Red Sox fans suffered under the Curse of the Bambino the Celtics won 16 NBA titles over three decades.  The Cubs wallowed in misery for over a century, but during that time the Blackhawks won six Stanley Cups, The Bears won a Super Bowl, and they were witness to Michael Jordan's greatness.  Even Dallas fans have had the 1999 Stars and the 2011 Mavericks to satiate their championship appetite as the Cowboys continue to disappoint them.  There has been no DC team to pick up the slack over the past 20 years, and it is the nature of that slack that makes this situation even more incomprehensible.

As all of DC fandom is aware, all of this lament is to see one of our teams PLAY in a Conference Final.  Not WIN a Conference Final, just PLAY in a Conference Final.  All of the above mentioned cities never had a 20 year drought where all of their teams failed to make a Conference Final.  Even Cleveland, the gold standard for sports sucking cities, never had all of their teams fail to make it to a Conference Final in a 20 year span during their famed championship drought.  Think about that.  DC has now eclipsed Cleveland in sports futility.  What makes it frustrating is that the DC franchises seem to be doing everything right.  The Nationals and Capitals have one of the best regular season records in their respective sports since 2010.  There have been three number one overall picks (John Wall, Alex Ovechkin, and Bryce Harper) who have lived up to the hype, and they are one of the best players in their respective sports.  The Redskins finally have hit on a number of draft picks and free agents, and they seem to have found their elusive franchise quarterback.  What makes it even more frustrating is that DC fans have seen post season magic.  Jayson Werth's walk off home run in Game 4 against the Cardinals in 2012 is one of the greatest radio broadcasts DC fans have ever heard, and no DC fan has ever been more pumped up than when Joel Ward scored the game winning overtime goal in Game 7 to defeat the defending Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins.  What makes it even MORE frustrating is how close these teams have been to making a Conference Final.  All DC teams have had a combined thirteen chances to make a Conference Final since 1998, including the 2015 Capitals who were 1:41 away from eliminating the Rangers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal.  We all know what happened from there.  So this "curse" is attributable to all DC teams, and it has brought misery and frustration to a fan base the likes of which have never been seen before even in the worst of cases in sports history.  This calls for a new term to be coined.  One that should only be used in the most dire of circumstances, and one that could last even longer here in Washington DC given the status of current events.

The new term based on this evidence should be "plague".  It is not a "DC Sports Curse".  It is the "DC Sports Plague".  Think about it. Curses happen to one or a few individuals and only show up intermittently allowing some joy in their lives until the curse comes back.  Also curses are usually broken instantaneously by acquiring and applying the necessary objects or actions to break the spell.  Plagues are different.   Plagues affect all in their path and anyone who comes in contact with it, they linger for quite some time (The Buboinc Plague still exists to this day) with no one shot panacea, and all they cause is misery.  Doesn't this sound like the DC Sports situation?  We have drafted the right players.  We have put together the right teams.  We have suffered incomprehensible playoff defeats.  And still we suffer from this playoff affliction.  Just as the term "Bubonic Plague" had to be coined because it was new to Medieval Europe, so too should the term "Sports Plague" be coined to describe the current state of Washington DC Sports.  No major sports city has had to endure such a futile times with such seemingly superior teams, and this DC Sports Plague could cause massive casualties in the near future.

With the firing of Dusty Baker, the likelihood that Bryce Harper will not be a National by this time next year looks better and better unless the Lerner's offer him north of $400 million dollars. Following him out of National Airport may be Kirk Cousins, whose contract situation is as enigmatic as I'm sure the first black splotches on the skin of peasants were to those in the Fourteenth Century.  This means that two of the four major figures in DC Sports could leave town within the next year, and if John Wall and Alex Ovechkin fail to end this "DC Sports Plague" this season it may mean that they will never end their Conference Championship drought in a DC uniform.  If that happens we will be well into the next decade still waiting to have the right to cheer for our teams in a championship setting, and seeing high profile free agents in all sports come to this city and get infected with the "DC Sports Plague".

John Wall Needed to Win More Than Anyone

Monday's Game 7 loss was another hard pill to swallow for the DC area.  Another ray of hope to end the nearly two decade drought of not making a Conference Final was dashed by another improbable performance by a fringe player.  Kelly Olynyk's 26 point performance will go right up there with Jaroslav Halak in the dark annals of DC Sports playoff misery.  One positive to come out of this playoff series, though, was the rise of John Wall as a DC icon.  Wall's game winning shot in Game 6, and his plea to the crowd on the scorer's table at the end of the game, had some anointing him as the premier sportsman in the DC area.  Wall's emotional outburst on the scorer's table was the personification of his passion for the city of Washington DC, and it was the type of moment that endears a player to the fan base.  The problem for Wall was that he did not deliver in Game 7.  A DC superstar player losing in a Game 7 is nothing new, but Wall and the Wizards squandered an opportunity to become the toast of the town.  They could have been the ones to break the streak, and for Wall that missed opportunity goes beyond just not making the Eastern Conference Finals.  Wall needed to win that game to be the unquestioned top dog in the DC sports market, but instead there will still be doubts in this area created by the accomplishments of other players, fans of other DC sports, and the way the NBA markets it's product.

There is nothing inherently special about John Wall's presence here in the DC area. The Wizards winning the Draft Lottery in 2010 to have the opportunity to pick Wall was surprising, but Wall is one of four number one overall picks in this market who have made an impact in their respective sports.  Alex Ovechkin has become the greatest goal scorer of his generation and led the Capitals to unprecedented popularity.  Bryce Harper is one of the premier hitters in baseball, and he and Stephen Strasburg have led the Nationals to become one of the best teams in baseball.  So John Wall being a number one overall pick who has delivered on his prospective talents is nothing new for this area.  John Wall needed to be the one to end the Conference Finals streak in order to separate himself from this pack, and also to win over DC fans who maybe brainwashed by NBA marketing.

The NBA is a sport that glorifies the elite.  Think about it in the terms of other sports.  How many Redskins fans wearing Kirk Cousins jerseys would say, "You know I'm a Redskins fan, but when Tom Brady (or other superstar QB) comes to town I gotta root for him"?  Not many because the NFL markets the team and each local fan base buys into that notion.  There is no Capitals fan who would root for Connor McDavid when the Oilers come to DC because 98% of the fan base (myself included) does not have the capacity to appreciate the finer points of hockey, Caps fans have had time to generate an intense loyalty to Ovechkin, and 10% of the fan base doesn't even know what city the Oilers play in.  The Nats/Orioles hedging still goes on, but few Nats fans nowadays have both a Bryce Harper jersey and a Mark Trumbo jersey. The NBA is different.  The NBA markets the elite players to everyone around the country, and in a transient area like DC it is hard for someone like John Wall to overcome that.  How many John Wall fans wear Jordans?  How many kids wear Golden State gear when that team is 3000 miles away?  How many casual Wizards fans will root for LeBron when he comes to Verizon Center?  The fact that you have to seriously ponder these questions means that John Wall faces the hardest road of any DC sports figure in winning over the fans.  The NBA markets it's top players to everyone around the country, and the Wizards have been so bad for so long that there is a significant portion of the area that gloms onto Curry and LeBron because they are winners.  Wall could have erased that in Game 7, but alas the DC fan base is left hoping yet again.

Emotionally, John Wall has won over this city but that sentiment is fleeting.  Winning is what this city wants, and Wall could have stripped the title of top DC sports figure with one win on Monday Night.  In an event driven town such as DC, think about the run Wall would have gotten going head-to-head with LeBron and God forbid possibly winning a few games.  Had that happened there would be no question about which individual sports figure is the biggest in DC.  Now, questions still remain and the doubt is still there.  Wall is tied at the top with people like Cousins, Harper, and Ovechkin, but he has the hardest road ahead of him and the longest time to wait to get another shot at winning.

The Capitals Motto: I Will Remember Before I Forget

One resounding message from the Capitals locker room Wednesday Night was that the team was angry.  Angry that they let the best assembled team in the Ovechkin era go to waste yet again.  Angry that they had to exit the playoffs before even getting a chance to play for a championship yet again.  Angry that despite the resounding sentiment that the Capitals had all the momentum going into Game 7 they let their nemesis best them yet again.  And with all this anger, what better motto to adopt for the Capitals to explain that anger than a line from a Slipknot song.  The Capitals Game 7 collapse can be comprehended through the lens of this motto.  This motto also should be adopted by the fan base as well because this motto could define what we see out of the support for the Capitals from the fans in this area going forward.  Capitals fans and the organization stand at a crossroads, and it is this saying, "I will remember before I forget", that needs to be addressed at this point to see how this pivotal point in franchise history could shape the team going forward.

Game 7 proved that for all the talk from the team about how they had forgotten their playoff past, they remembered it more than they thought.  The Capitals dominated the Penguins in the first period in every facet except for the score, and a little tick in the back of their head started to creep in. They launched a fury of shots that did not go in, and Shattenkirk's PP shot that rang off the post started to weigh on them.  Then Bryan Rust scored in the second off of a poor clearing attempt and there was this looming sense of dread that filled the Capitals.  It was happening again.  They started to press more, pass too much, and not return the favor when the Penguins made horrendous exits out of their zone.  This dread grew to a crescendo when Patrick Hornqvist scored in the third period and there was this visceral reaction of defeat from the Capitals.  The fans could feel it through the TV.  The Capitals play in the last 15:00 of Game 7 showed that the memory of all the playoff collapses were still lurking in their subconscious waiting to be awoken again like some hibernating animal.  Everyone watching had the same reaction, "This cannot be happening again", and unfortunately the Capitals embodied that notion.  The weight of every playoff collapse in the Ovechkin era was on display Wednesday night in the last 15:00 of Game 7 and it shows that the Capitals have not forgotten anything about the past.  The problem is compounded by the fact that the fans have not forgotten as well.

Everyone knew it in the back of their mind.  Even before the game when fans said that the Capitals have this game in hand it came with a certain break in the voice.  A certain change of pitch.  A certain lowering of tone that would make someone think that if it was said too loud that it would conjure the devil.  For all the prognosticators saying this was a different team, there was the cynical fan that had an equivocation to go along with their optimism.  Some brought up Jaroslav Halak.  Some brought up all the stats about how the Penguins own the Caps in the playoffs.  Some brought up the Caps abysmal Game 7 record.  It was clear that the fans have not forgotten all the past playoff failures of this franchise and that is a problem.  It is a problem because this fan base is beginning to expect a return on their investment.  The "Rock the Red" era was built on fans who wanted to ride the hot ticket (myself included) and they sure got it from the Capitals.  But that regular season success has now translated into entitlement.  These Caps fans feel as if they built this team themselves and that their loyalty has been betrayed time and again by these playoff failures, the worst of which came in Game 7 on Wednesday Night.  They remember all the playoff failures and they are apt to bring them up when suggesting the Capitals trade Ovechkin and blow up the team because their fandom has not been rewarded.  These fans have forgotten a most dire period in Capitals history, and it is relevant at the current time where the fans and the franchise face an uncertain future.

The fan base needs to remember the dark times.  They need to remember what happened the last time the team sold off all of their superstars and finished next to last in the Easter Conference between 2003-2007.  The fans need to ask themselves if it is worth possibly giving up these playoff runs for three to five years to rebuild after trading someone like Ovechkin, Backstrom, or both.  And how loyal will some of these fans be if the Capitals are a shell of their former selves due to trading away their superstars?  Will they be willing to support a team that may not make the playoffs for a few years?  The fans need to ask themselves these questions before they start spouting off about how this team needs to be blown up. They also should consider it when this team will be losing some of the main pieces that have allowed them to the Presidents Trophy over the last two years.  The "Rock the Red" era is officially over, and we will now see how many fans are willing to remember the success this team has had before they forget it.  If not we may see the exodus of the portion of the fan base that was on board because for the experience and not true fandom.

As the fan base needs to remember the dark times, the team needs to forget them.  This team will stay relatively intact for next season, and it is obvious that they have internalized all these playoff defeats.  They need to forget them as best they can.  Trotz's comments may have rubbed the media the wrong way, and laughter may not have been the best choice of words, but his message needs to be adopted by the team.  The team needs to forget these defeats and remember that they are one of the most talented teams in the league, and they will still be even with the departure of some of these free agents this off season.  They need to release these internal demons if they expect to ever conquer them, and this Game 7 loss will probably take the entire of season to recover.  The team, tough, needs to ask themselves whether they will let this loss define who they are, or if they will forget all the losses and start a new narrative come next season.  The "Rock the Red" era is over, but if the remaining players carry the same baggage with them then all that will leave is the name.  The results will be the same if the Capitals remember before they forget all these playoff losses.

Ovechkin's Possible Farewell Speech

In the immortal words of DMX, "Here we go again".  The Capitals find themselves on the brink of elimination in the second round of the playoffs and again the Penguins are on the opposing side.  This scenario has happened so many times over the past decade that you would think the team and the fan base's acquiescence to failure would numb them into a stupor of denial once again.  But this year is different.  This year could mark the end of an era with all the impending free agent signings/decisions the Capitals need to make this off season, and the Ovechkin trade rumors gaining more traction in the wake of another perceived playoff collapse.  Even if the Capitals somehow comeback against the Penguins and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals there will still be drastic changes to the Capitals' roster due to the fact that there are too many high profile free agents to sign and limited cap space.  The greatest iteration of the Capitals roster in the Ovechkin era will come to a crashing end whenever the Capitals decide to exit the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season, and it very well could be tonight, which is why Ovechkin needs to give a kick ass pregame speech tonight.

The Capitals have been built around the greatest goal scorer of his generation, and he needs to be the one to deliver the speech that could possibly bring the Capitals back from elimination.  The speech, though, needs to be more heartfelt and emotional rather than a rah rah type speech.  You would assume that over the past four games the Capitals have gotten in each others' faces, called out people's names, broken enough sticks on their lockers, and used the F-word like its going out of style that another speech like that would ring hollow at a time like this.  Ovechkin needs to be the one to address the whole team tonight in a way that gives the team a renewed sense of brotherhood, and in my opinion here is how it should go:

"Alight boys, listen.  Tonight could be our last game together so listen closely.  I've had some pretty good success in my career:  Heart Trophies, Rocket Richard Trophies, goal scoring milestones, but I have never been a team champion at the highest level.  For all my success, I have never been able to inspire the teams I have played on enough to win it all.  That is why I am skating with Lars and Willy tonight, because my play so far has not lived up to the "C" I wear on my sweater or the pedigree I have built.  I asked to switch lines [this is just an assumption on my part but just go with it] because Bura has been killing it and I have been dragging TJ and Nicky down so far this series.  I have to face reality that I am not the goal scorer I was 10 years ago.  Think about that Nick [Ovechkin looks at Nick Backstrom in a reminiscent way].  Ten Years together.  The Young Guns, remember?  Hmfh, Not so young now, I guess. Right John? Karl? Beags? Ten years.  Some players don't get half that time to play together in this league, but we have had the privilege to be on the same team for Ten Years.  And we have been able to bring up guys like you Schmidtty......Kuzy..... Bura.........Willy.....Orly.....Holts........[Ovechkin looks at each one of them in the eye] you guys haven't been here as long but this is the only NHL team you have ever known.  You guys have put on a red sweater for your entire NHL career and not thought twice about it.  And when TJ, Justin, Winnik, Nisky, Brooks, Shatty, Lars, when you guys came in it was like we never missed a beat.  We're a family, but we know what is coming.  Most of us will not be here next year. The family is getting broken up after this season whether we win or not.  Ten years, Nick.  Ten years could be over tonight.  It will be over no matter what after these playoffs.  Which is why I ask you to play for that.  Fuck the Stanley Cup.  I want those ten years to last a little longer.  I want to play with the best team I have ever played with a little bit longer.  I want to see TJ score from the slot as many times as I can, I want to see Karl shut down the other team's best line, I want to see Willy check people as hard as he can, I want to see Kuzy make some ridiculous move and put a wrister over the goalie's glove, I want to see Winnik forecheck the shit out of the other team's top line, or Shatty unload some ridiculous shot from the point.  That is what I want, boys.  I don't want Ten Years to end.  I want to keep the only team I have ever known together for a little bit longer.  I'm playing tonight because I want to see all of you wear that red sweater for as long as possible.  I'm not playing tonight for any trophy.  I'm playing for my brothers who I want to keep here as long as I can.  From now on we play for each other, and if that means we get out of this series alive, then we know we have already won, because we get to have those Ten Years last one more game.  Let's go boys."

That is the route I would take with this speech, but that is just me.  And Ovi, since I know you read this blog religiously, please feel free to use any part of this you would like.

The Redskins Empire Is Losing Control

For the first time since they established their outright hegemony over the Washington DC fan base, the Washington Redskins find their empire at its most vulnerable state.  With the firing of Scot McCloughan and the Kirk Cousins contract debacle, the Redskins brass stands to alienate generations of fans that had a lukewarm investment in the Redskins to begin with after years of losing and ineptitude.  And where once there was no viable alternative for these fans to turn to, the Capitals, Nationals, and Wizards find themselves in advantageous positions to woo these fans to their cause.  The winds of change are already blowing in the DC area, and the fans are responding by raising their sails in the opposite direction of Redskins Park.  The causes of these changes go beyond mere brotherhood between the other three DC franchises.  It is rooted in the success that the other three teams are experiencing in contrast to the Burgundy and Gold.  The Capitals and Wizards have legitimate chances this summer to make it to their conference and league finals, The Nationals are expected to be a contender for the World Series, and all three teams have superstars that are recognized as being in the top tier of players in their respective leagues.  These factors have placed these three franchises in a position to steal a generation of fans from the Washington Redskins, and the portents of these shifting allegiances can be seen in various areas.  The first sign of this lost fandom can be seen in jersey sales.

The Redskins jersey sales for the 2016 season show that they have very little to offer young fans in the area of recognizable, and marketable, superstars unlike their DC counterparts.  The NFLshop and Dick's Sporting Goods have lists of their top selling jerseys for the 2016 season.  While these probably do not constitute all of the NFL jersey's sold in 2016, it is not good news for the Redskins when none of their players crack the Top 25 jersey sales on either site, and Ryan Kerrigan and Kirk Cousins round out the Top 40 on the Dicks list at #39 and #40 respectively.  Just to give perspective on how far down that is, Tyler Eifert, Joe Haden, and Sammy Watkins all sold more jerseys at Dicks than Kerrigan and Cousins.  Compare that to Alex Ovechkin, who has the 7th highest selling jersey on shopnhl, and Bryce Harper, who as of 2015 had the 5th highest selling jersey in the MLB.  This is quantitative proof that the Nationals and Capitals are outpacing the Redskins in the area of marketable superstars, and while John Wall doesn't crack the NBA's top jersey sales he is being marketed as the next big superstar by the Wizards who are suddenly catching fire.  Contrast this with how the Redskins have passively undermined their franchise quarterback, and it is not hard to see that  a generation of DC fans have grown up with other heroes to root for that do not wear Burgundy and Gold.  It has become cooler for young kids to have a Bryce Harper jersey than it is to have  Kirk Cousins jersey (if you can find one).  But the NFL is about marketing the team, not the individual player, right?  If that is the case then the Redskins are still losing ground to the other three teams.

Forbes Magazine puts out their list of most valuable teams for every major sports league.  Please look at the pages for the Caps, Wizards, Nationals, and Redskins to see what they are worth, but an analysis of some of the information on these sites show that the Redskins may be losing ground in popularity to the other three DC teams.  Forbes has four areas of how the team's value is broken down, but the one that is most telling is the percentage of value attributed to the team's brand.  The Redskins' brand only accounts for 7.5% of their overall value, which is worth about $221 million in absolute value according to Forbes.  None of the other teams match that total amount of money, but all the other teams have a higher percentage brand value relative to their overall worth than the Redskins.  The Wizards are at 9.8%, The Nats are at 11.0%, and The Caps are at 12.3%.  This means that these other teams spend more time promoting their brand than the Redskins, and it can be seen with the promotions and slogans they have put out over the past decade.  The Caps have Rock the Red.  The Nationals have #Nattitude.  The Wizards have #DCRising.  The Redskins have...........HTTR?  It is hard to think of one for them, right?  The other three teams have done more to connect with the fans through brand promotion than the Redskins, and the fans have taken notice by buying jerseys, merchandise, and tickets for the Nats, Caps, and Wiz at a higher clip than they have for the Redskins.  If you're still not convinced just look at the total revenue for each team since 2008, which is provided on the Forbes site.  

The Redskins have the lowest increase in total team revenue (36%) from 2008-2016 than any other DC Sports team.  Even the Wizards have managed to show a 38% increase in total revenue according to Forbes, and their play over that span of time may have been worse than the Redskins.  It is also worth mentioning that the Caps increased their revenue by 86%, and that Nats increased their revenue by 91% over that same time span.  The Redskins total revenue ($447 Million projected for 2016) dwarfs all other teams, but the slowing growth rate shows that the other teams are gaining in popularity by the increase in the amount of money they are pulling in.  And the argument that "Well, these teams were so small that they were due for a large increase, and the NFL is such a moneymaking leviathan that the room for growth in that league is less" doesn't hold up.  Not only have the Redskins shown the least amount of revenue growth for DC sports teams, they have the lowest revenue growth for all 32 NFL teams in that span according to Forbes.  And it is not even close.  All other NFL teams have seen at least a 50% increase in their revenue over that time frame, and that includes teams like the Browns (57% increase), Jaguars (68% increase), and Bills (58% increase).  So the lack of revenue growth cannot be attributed to something that is inherent within the NFL. It is another sign that the Redskins are losing fans to the other three DC Sports teams by not gaining as much money through merchandising and ticket sales.  One needs to look no further than the Redskins having to remove seats from FedEx Field to see the loss of ticket sales.  But all of these numbers pale in comparison to the one thing that sways any fan to a certain team.  Winning.

All of these jersey sales, brand percentages, and increase revenue growth are all based on winning.  The Capitals and Nationals have been able to experience sustained success over the past 8-10 years, and the Wizards may be beginning their time as NBA contenders.  All three have legitimate shots to make a run at a championship, and the Wizards and Capitals have a chance to bring post season championships to the DC area before the Redskins can take a snap for their 2017 season.  If they are able to do that, and the Nationals at least win the NL Pennant this fall, it would herald a new age in DC sports fandom.  The Redskins may have to play second or third fiddle to teams that have marketed themselves better, organized themselves better, and won better than they have over the last 10 years.  At no time have we seen the Redskins's popularity among the DC fan base as vulnerable as it is right now, and the financial numbers seem to indicate that is not some poetic musing.  It is a reality that the Redskins are losing their absolute rule over this area's fan base, and one championship from any of the other three teams could make this even more of a reality.

Ovi's 50 Needs to Make History for All

Alex Ovechkin put himself in exclusive company against the Blues on Saturday night.  His hat trick all but assured his fourth consecutive, and sixth overall, Rocket Richard Trophy.  Granted, this trophy only came into existence in 1998, but since that time no other player has won it more than twice.  Ovechkin is now the third player in NHL history to score 50 goals seven or more times (Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky did it 9 times).  He is the first player in NHL history to score 50 or more goals in three consecutive seasons twice (2007-2010 and 2013-2016), but this seems less of an achievement when you realize that Gretzky had eight consecutive 50 plus seasons and Bossy's nine 50 goal seasons were consecutive as well.  What people need to be focusing on is the age at which Ovechkin is accomplishing these feats, for both good and bad reasons, and what history we want Ovechkin to be making as Capitals fans.

Although Gretzky and Bossy never had a lull in their 50 goal scoring seasons, Ovechkin has now outpaced them in terms of longevity.  Both Bossy and Gretzky saw their last 50 goal season come before age 30 (Gretzky at 28 and Bossy at 29).  Ovechkin has become only the 9th player in NHL history to score 50 goals at age 30 or older and the first to do so since Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006.  If you believe the notion that goal scoring is harder to come by these days, Ovechkin's 50 goals this season looks even more impressive since two of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history could not get 50 after 30 in an inferior defensive era.  But the "different era" argument is for those who wish to argue ad nauseam about the greatest of all time without really wanting to come to a consensus.  Ovechkin's goal scoring longevity will never surpass what made Bossy and Gretzky great, and Ovechkin is running out of time to achieve this in order to make him live eternally in the annals of NHL lore.

It may not have occurred to Capitals fans, but Ovechkin has yet to even play for a Stanley Cup.  That puts him on the short list with Jonathan Cheechoo, that is his real name, as being the only Rocket Richard winners to never have played in a Stanley Cup Final.  That takes a little bit of luster off of his 50 goal seasons when you realize that all other great goal scorers of this era were at least able to get their teams in position to win a championship, and most of them were able to scale the mountain top.  It is also sobering to know that only three players 30 or older have been able to score 50 goals and win a Stanley Cup in the same season.  They are Joe Sakic with the Avalanche in 2001, Joe Mullen with the Flames in 1989, and Phil Esposito with the Bruins in 1972.  All of this means that Ovechkin's time is running out, and remember that Father Time is undefeated.  While Ovechkin's 50 goals are an individual milestone it is the team's success that will put him into the stratosphere of NHL greats, and Ovechkin is playing with the best overall team of his career.  If Ovehckin cannot win it this year the future looks hazy, at best, as to what type of supporting cast he will have in his continued push for collective greatness. It is more than likely that we may see the departure of Jason Chimera and Dmitri Orlov this offseason, and what will Brian MacLellan do when  T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and Nate Schmidt are all looking for more money after the 2017 season?  If Ovechkin is to attain true greatness he will need to do what he did on Saturday night and lead the only NHL team he has ever known to their first Stanley Cup Championship.  If he does not, maybe he will donate all of his Rocket Richard Trophies to the Verizon Center so we can put them on display.

Please check out Jewels from the Crown where all of the goal scoring info was found.

A True Game of All-Stars

post by: Mark Sweet


Let’s be honest, no one actually likes all–star games. If anyone watched the Pro Bowl this year you may have noticed the game was one step above playing two-hand touch.  If the NFL would like to make their All-Star game more popular, they may want to take notes from the league with the best All-Star game experience around.  That league would be the NHL.

The NHL spends an entire night showing off the skills of their players in six different competitions. They also understand that this is an event for the fans and let their players have fun. In 2009, Alex Ovechkin decided to put on a pair of sunglasses, a hat, and use two sticks during the breakaway challenge. It wasn’t the prettiest goal, but the fans vote on the winner and they loved his schtick. P.K. Subban followed in Ovi’s footsteps by dressing up like Jaromir Jagr and winning. Players also get to show off their raw talent. Watching Zdeno Chara fire a shot upwards of 108 mph is undeniably impressive, much more impressive than watching a third rate defensive back pull up on every tackle as the receiver fox trots for five yards to the sideline. 

The NHL is also working to make their game as good as it can be. In 2010 the NHL ditched conference teams and started a fantasy draft format (copied by the NFL a few y
ears later). This was fun for a few years but it still suffered from unenthusiastic play on the ice. They realized this and decided that the All–Star game will now be a 4 team 3v3 tournament. This is by far the best decision they could make. The 3v3 format opened the game up for big offensive plays. More than just scoring, guys were back checking, fore checking, and goalies were making saves that could be considered for save of the year. In another stroke of Canadian Capitalist Genius, the winning team was awarded one million dollars. For the first time in forever there was effort in this game. Players were skating hard to not give up an odd-man rush and what could have been a potential game winning goal. It was clear no one wanted to lose. And amidst all of this newly invigorated competitive spirit, the NHL was able to create their own version of WWE style hype and it had nothing to do with dropping the gloves.

Google “John Scott” and read about how the NHL did everything in their power to stop him from playing in the All-Star game. They stopped publicizing fan votes, asked him not to play, traded him to another team, moved him to the minor league, and did not choose him to be voted on as MVP of the game. And after all of the disrespect he received from the NHL, he scored two goals, “fought” Patrick Kane, captained the Pacific team to a victory, and won as a write in candidate for MVP. He was the Stone Cold Steve Austin to the NHL's Vince McMahon, and ultimately a breath of fresh air for what can be a very boring product.

But what makes the NHL All-Star game truly special is that there isn’t one every four years. The all-star game is ditched for the Winter Olympics. The NHL is filled with players from the USA, Canada, and Europe. I’ve never seen so many people care about hockey than I did in 2010 when USA lost to Canada in the finals. T.J. Oshie became a household name for a few days in 2012.

Hockey isn’t everyone’s favorite sport, but most people have never been to an NHL game. Everyone owes it to themselves to see just how fast the game is in person. This will give you a new found respect for what the game is and will let you appreciate just how much fun the All-Star game can be.

A Rivalry Rexamined: Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Washington Sports Fans may have neglected to notice that the best team in the NHL's Eastern Conference currently resides at the Verizon Center.  The Capitals are dominating their opponents this season with the newly acquired talent of players like TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, but the one constant on this team that continues to lead them to success is Alex Ovechkin.  While Ovechkin is not the omnipotent force he was early in his career, the Russian Machine has been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons into a sharp shooting opportunist who is scoring goals on more than just breakaways, powerful one timers, and toe drag moves.  Ovechkin has been able to evolve into a player who can score from close in or on rebounds and help out on the back check, which has put him in the top ten in plus/minus so far this season.  It is this evolution that has put the Capitals a top the Eastern Conference, and it should be reviving an old argument for Capital fans based on what is happening with Ovechkin's long time nemesis. 
In Western Pennsylvania, the Penguins and their captain are having somewhat of a different type of season.  The Penguins find themselves fifth in the Metropolitan Division and Sidney Crosby is not exactly having the best of seasons so far.  The normally surgical tactician has only 24 points (7 goals/17 assists) and is a -5, which should be bringing the argument of Crosby vs. Ovechkin back into the NHL consciousness if these season trends continue for both players. There is no question that right now Crosby's Stanley Cup Championship and two Gold Medals outpace Ovechkin's superior individual accomplishments, but Crosby's lackluster season so far begins to beg the question of longevity.  What happens if Crosby's production continues to wane and Ovechkin can continue to be a top 10 goal scorer for that same period of time? 

Ovechkin had his dip in production from 2010-2012 where people were asking if Ovechkin's time as a dominant goal scorer was over.  He responded with three straight Rocket Richard Trophies and has vaulted himself back into the NHL's elite.  The difference with Sidney Crosby is that he has already had a decline in production in his career.  From 2010-2013 Crosby only played in 99 games due to injury, and his overall stats subsequently took a hit.  It is scary to think of what Crosby's career numbers would be had he been able to play more over those three seasons, and he did come back to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) in 2013-2014, but another statistical dud from Crosby sans injury could begin to swing the argument back in Ovechkin's favor if Ovechkin is able to continue to be productive.  Fifty goal scorers are not common at Ovechkin's age, and if Ovechkin can score 50 even one more time it may add the dimension of prolonged success to this argument that could offset some of the significance of the championships that Crosby has won.
Wherever a current hypothetical scenario can take this argument, the current reality is that Crosby is on top due to the championships he has won with the Penguins and Team Canada.  But up until this year it almost seemed a forgone conclusion that Ovechkin would need to win a Stanley Cup before this rivalry could be revived.  Looking at the season that Crosby is having now may counter that sentiment by seeing how well each player can end their career.  If Crosby ends his career with only second/third line center production, and if Ovechkin can do what only 8 players have done in NHL history (score 50 goals after age 30) and continue to be a legit first line winger for the next three to five years, it may give Ovechkin an edge over Crosby in terms of longevity.  And if the Capitals can do what some people say they should do this year, it will vault Ovechkin over his longtime nemesis and revive a rivalry that has lain dormant for the past five years.


The Greatest? Eight

The season that Alex Ovechkin has completed this year has vaulted him into the annals of NHL lore that have been set aside for only the greatest players of all time.  This season saw him eclipse the 50 goal mark for the sixth time in his career (a feat only 6 other players have accomplished) and he won his third consecutive/fifth overall Rocket Richard trophy.  Add those accomplishments to three Hart Trophies, most goals scored by a left winger in a season (65), this goal, most points by a left wing/Russian born rookie (106), the only player to win the Art Ross Trophy (most points in a season), Rocket Richard Trophy (most goals in a season), Ted Lindsay Award (MVP as designated by the NHLPA), and the Hart Trophy (League MVP) in a career, plus he is the only player to win all four in one season (2007-2008 season), and all of this done in a Washington Capitals uniform.  Ovechkin has been the most accomplished and electrifying athlete in the Washington area over the last decade and this season has sparked the debate about whether or not he is the greatest athlete in DC Sports history.  Some were eager to give him this title after he broke the Capitals franchise record in goals, but once we all came down from that vicarious sense of euphoria given to us by Ovechkin on that night, we should have realized that there are two figures who still out pace Ovechkin as the greatest athlete in DC Sports history.  They are Darrell Green and Walter Johnson.  An analysis of their accomplishments compared to those of Ovechkin's will show that they are still ahead of Ovechkin for this title, but there is one title that has eluded Ovechkin thus far that could put him over the top come June.

Darrell Green's greatness lies in his longevity and dedication to this area.  He spent his entire 20 year career with the Redskins where he set NFL records for most consecutive years with at least one interception (19) and most games played/started at corner back (295/258) and most games played by a defensive player (295).  Those are also franchise records that, in this era of free agency, may never be broken by another Redskin player.  He also has the franchise record for most interceptions (54), and he is oldest player to record an interception in NFL history.  So why are we putting Green ahead of arguably the greatest NHL player of his era?  Because Ovechkin was supposed to be great. Ovechkin was drafted number one overall and expected to be the greatest in the world.  Darrell Green was drafted by the defending Super Bowl Champion Redskins with the last pick in the first round out of Texas A&I (currently Texas A&M Kingsville).  During his time in college he was known more for his ability as a Track and Field sprinter than a football player.  Green came out of relatively nowhere to become one of the best cornerbacks of his time and a four-time Fastest Man in the NFL champion (just ask Tony Dorsett).  That clip was from Green's rookie year, and he continued to play with that type of dedication throughout a career that would see Green anchor a defense that brought two Super Bowls to DC.  Ovechkin has yet to hoist the Stanley Cup.  Darrell Green continues to live in the DC area, and he continues to run his Darrell Green Youth Life Foundation within the DC area.  Ovechkin may have more personal accomplishments, but Green had an equal amount of athletic ability as Ovechkin and he put it on display for twice as long.  Ovechkin may be a victim of smaller sample size, but championships mean a lot to a city that has now had a generation of fans grow up without ever having witnessed one in a professional sport and Green has a 2-0 advantage over Ovechkin in that department.  Couple that with some of Green's records being in that "they may never be broken but only because it is a different era now but how can we condemn someone for their accomplishments in hindsight because we are trying to make a point" realm gives him a leg up on Ovechkin.  Different era or not, as long as Green has those records it will be forever tied with the DC area.  Water Johnson has been carrying that moniker for almost a century now, and it is hard to see how Ovechkin could ever overtake him.

Walter Johnson's greatness lies in nostalgia.  His entire 20 year career was spent with the Washington Senators where he was able to bring the only World Series Championship to the DC area in 1924.  He also holds the record for most career shutouts (110), a record that some say will never be broken.  The different era argument applies, but different era or not, every time someone references that record they will see "Walter Johnson: Washington Senators".  He was AL MVP twice in his career, and he had 7 seasons where is ERA was under 2.00.  Where Darrell Green could not say that he was the best at his position during his era, Johnson was arguably the best at his position during his time and some would say the best pitcher ever.  But Walter Johnson also has ties to this area that go beyond sports.  He retired to this area after his playing days were over, and even held elected office.  One of the first high schools in America to be named after a professional athlete is Walter Johnson High School in Bethesda, Maryland.  For one of the greatest ball players of all time, Johnson forever resides in a quaint cemetery in Rockville, Maryland with no special marker other than his name.  I realize this is outside of the athletic realm, but these parts of Johnson's life will forever tie him to this area.  Even though two generations have come and gone since anyone saw Johnson play, his name continues to live in this area and he will forever be brought up as one of the greatest to ever play baseball.  What will happen when Ovechkin's contract expires?  What happens if he goes to some other team?  Will we have the same reverence for him in 90 years as we do for Johnson?  It is possible, but there is one thing Ovechkin can do to ensure his legacy in Washington lives on past the near future.  Win the Stanley Cup.

As previously stated, a generation of Washington sports fans has grown up never seeing a professional sports championship (the Terps in 2002 were awesome, but that was college).  Ovechkin has had the best shot at breaking that drought over the last decade, but he and the Capitals have been able to disappoint in so many different ways during the Stanley Cup playoffs in the past.  When the Capitals open up against the Islanders on Wednesday, however, Ovechkin will be captain of a team that some say is the best he has ever led into a Stanley Cup playoff.  If Ovechkin wants to be considered the Greatest Athlete in DC History he needs to eventually put the Stanley Cup in the trophy case at Verizon Center.  If he is unable to do so he will always be third fiddle in this area behind Darrell Green and Walter Johnson; and a century from now when Ovechkin is subject to the "different era" debate his stats will have nothing to back them up.

The Ovechkin Renaissance Won't Last Forever

           Alex Ovechkin came crashing down to Earth on Sunday night.  His three goals in the two previous games were parlayed into zero points and a -3 performance against the Flyers.  Ovechkin’s only highlight came when the Capitals fearless leader turned the puck over in horrendous fashion behind his net that led to a Flyer shorthanded goal.  Granted it was the Capitals’ third game in four nights, but they had the Flyers dead to rights and they let them slip away.  A big part of that had to do with Dmitry Orlov’s hit on Brayden Schenn, but in a game where the announcers were comparing it to a playoff atmosphere it is no surprise to Caps fans that Ovechkin was nowhere to be found.  Call it fatigue, call it an Olympic hangover finally setting in, or call it teams defending Ovechkin and his line mates harder than the rest of the team.   Whatever the reason for Ovechkin’s lack of success in highly adverse situations, the continued prevalence of these performances now raises the question; would another first or second round playoff exit this season mark the beginning of the end for Ovechkin’s ability to win a Stanley Cup as an elite goal scorer?  Ovechkin’s scoring renaissance over the last two years has carried the Capitals through the regular season, but it maybe masking an inevitable meeting with an inescapable foe that could forever hinder Ovechkin’s ability to carry a team through the playoffs in the future. That foe is time.    

            If the Capitals fail to make the playoffs, or have an early exit yet again, that means they will begin next season with a 29-year-old Alex Ovechkin who hopefully will be coming off his first 50 plus goal season in four years.  Jewels from the Crown has a great spreadsheet of all the players who have ever scored 50 goals in a season and the age at which they achieved that feat.  The success of the players who have done it at age 29 and older may give Caps fans a reason to press the panic button.  Only 20 players in NHL history have put up 50 goals in a season at age 29 or older and shockingly none of them are named Gretzky (his last 50 goal season was at 28).  Alright, maybe more than you were thinking, but only eight of those players had a fifty goal season past 30: Marcel Dionne at 31, Phil Esposito at 31 and 32, Mario Lemieux at 31, Bobby Hull at 33, Jaromir Jagr at 33, Joe Sakic at 31, John Bucyk at 35, and Joe Mullen at 31.  All others had their 50 goal seasons at age 29 or 30.  Of the twenty, only five had multiple 50-goal seasons at 29 or older: Marcel Dionne (3), Phil Esposito (4), Mario Lemieux (2), Dave Andreychuck (2), and Bobby Hull (2).  All of this means that when Ovechkin starts next season at age 29, he may not have very many years left to lead the Capitals with his scoring touch, and the Stanley Cup numbers out of this group of twenty is cause for even more concern.  Seven of these players were able to win Stanley Cups after age 29: Phil Esposito, Brett Hull, Dave Adreychuck, Joe Sakic, John Bucyk, Joe Mullen, and Lanny McDonald.  Five of them did it with the team they had their fifty goal seasons with: Esposito, Sakic, Bucyk, Mullen, and McDonald, but only three did it in a season where they scored 50 goals.  Those were Sakic with the Avalanche in 2001, Mullen with the Flames in 1989, and Esposito with the Bruins in 1972.  So not only are Ovechkin’s chances at having these 50 goals season limited, his chances of having these seasons translate into post season relevance are dwindling as well.  This means that the Capitals’ success this season is of dire importance to the continued scoring revival of Alex Ovechkin, and it will be a key factor in his evolution as team captain and whether or not he can lead the Capitals to the Promised Land.             

            Ovechkin’s season thus far makes one think that he should be playing with a chip on his shoulder, especially after the Russians’ debacle in Sochi.  If he doesn’t win this year, or at least make it to the conference finals, it may spell disaster for the Caps’ chance at winning a Cup with Ovechkin at the helm.  It would mean that even with a reborn 50 goal scoring Alex Ovechkin the Capitals still cannot achieve post season success.  With history telling us that those 50 goal season maybe coming to an end it is hard to imagine a Capitals team hoisting the Stanley Cup any time soon unless things begin to change.  Ovechkin needs to realize that he must evolve as a leader to help his team win in ways other than scoring, and the Capitals must realize that they need to start putting the right pieces around Ovechkin to supplement his scoring as it inevitably decreases.  If not then the Capitals can take pride in having a top goal scorer for maybe another two to three years before his scoring declines, and we can continue to talk about how the trophy case in the Verizon Center continues to lack the most important piece of them all

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