Redskins vs. Giants: Moments for Reflection

In this time of overemphasis on the dire state of affairs for the Redskins franchise, let us take a moment to reflect on the past.  It was 2007.  A confident Joe Gibbs led an aspiring Jason Campbell and an upstart Redskins team with a dubious 2-0 record to face a beleaguered 0-2 Giants at FedEx Field.  Eli Manning was entering his 3rd season as a starter, and he had shown regression from his rookie season to the point in 2007 where this game against the Redskins would make or break the season and put his future in New York in question.  Down 17-3 at halftime, things did not look good.  The Giants defense could not stop even the vanilla Gibbs 2.0 offense from putting up points on them and it seemed as if all was lost.  But lo and behold, Eli caught a spark, the Redskins do what they do best and squandered their lead in the fourth quarter, and the Giants found themselves on top 24-17 with 2:19 to go.  Jason Campbell would lead a valiant drive to the one yard line where Ladell Betts would be stopped twice in a row on runs up the middle and the Redskins turned the ball over on downs.  People would later point to that game as the turning point in the Giants season that took them from 0-2 to thwarting the Patriots perfect season in Super Bowl XLII.  Now the Redskins find themselves in a reversal of fortune almost ten years later as we reflect on the present.

The Redskins are now the 0-2 team with their future on the line as they go on the road to face a 2-0 Giants team with more statistical holes than some realize.  Redskins fans, though, have pointed to all kinds of self fulfilling prophecies as to why it is a no-brainer that the Giants will win this game:  

We have not beaten the Giants in the Meadowlands since 2009.  

We have only won there four times since 2000, and 2000 was the last time we won in East Rutherford in September.  

The Giants run defense will eat us alive.  

Josh Norman cannot cover everybody.  

Our defense cannot stop anybody.  

Kirk Cousins has become Fallout Boy again.

All of this neglects the fact that the Redskins' season has come down to one or two plays that have changed the course of their games so far.  And, as stated above, the Giants have some statistical holes that warrant further analysis and could be the key to a Redskins win.

Run the Ball, Run the Ball, Run the Ball:  No matter how futile it may seem, or how formidable the Giants front seven may be against the run, it is time for Sean McVay to look at his opponent and say running the ball is the key to this game.  You don't believe me?  Explain to me how the Giants defense has yet to force a turnover, they allow only 16 points per game, 9.1 yards per completion (best in the league), 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground (5th best in the league), and yet they allow the most plays per drive (7.1) out of any team in the league, and the second highest average time of possession per drive (3:18)?  The answer is running the ball.  Dallas ran 30 times for 101 yards, but they were also able to keep the down and distances manageable for Dak Prescott and keep their drives going.  The Saints only ran 13 times and had little offense to show for it.  If we can keep 3rd downs manageable (i.e. 6 yards or less) and commit to running the ball on first and second down, Cousins can do what he does best and throw intermediate to short routes to convert first downs. Speaking of throwing the ball:

A Possession Passing Clinic: Eli Manning is only 23rd in the league in pass attempts, yet he is first in completion percentage.  Eli's longest pass this season has only been 45 yards.  There is no doubt he will try and test Breeland and Phillips to see if they have the mettle to defend their receivers long, but it may not be an air it out type game.  If Manning can establish a short throwing game then it could open up the porous Redskins run defense even more.  With the Giants losing three fumbles last week and the Redskins defense being notorious for stripping the ball, look for the Giants to use the short passing game to set up the run and control the clock.  

Hunt With One Bullet at All Times:  A plea to the Redskins defense to seize opportunities when they come.  While Manning has thrown only one interception this year he has been sacked twice as much as Kirk Cousins on almost 20 less attempts.  Four sacks may not seem like a lot, but the Giants are not passing the ball as much so the sacks stand out more.  There may be opportunities for the Redskins to pressure Eli if he comes out throwing, and if the Redskins can stop the run it may provide more opportunities to sack Manning that they cannot give up.  The Redskins defense also missed recovering a crucial Ezekiel Elliot fumble last week that would have ended the Cowboys' go ahead drive.  This game will come down to possession, so any opportunity that the Redskins defense has to get off the field must not be squandered. 

A moment to reflect on the near future.  This game will come down to possession.  As omnipotent as the Giants defense has been made out to be, it is not without its faults especially when it comes to offenses holding on to the ball against them.  Likewise, the Redskins offense has been able to move the ball relatively well this year, but they need to capitalize on these drives with touchdowns.  I see a ball control battle where each team trades off long drives with defensive stops sprinkled in.  The Redskins get a touchdown off of a timely turnover, they sack Manning at least 3 times and hurry him all day, and they keep the Giants guessing by running and throwing out of a lot of three TE sets.

Redskins win 21-20 

Redskins vs. Giants Part Deux: The World is Changing

No. The Redskins are not the powers of Isengard and Mordor combined.  But after reading this article about Tony Romo's future and watching the total implosion of the Eagles on national television, this statement from Saruman seemed appropriate for the current state of affairs in the NFC East.  The Cowboys season is all but lost, and they now need to start seriously considering a plan for their quarterback position post Tony Romo.  The Eagles' public disembowelment on Thanksgiving showed that they also have little hope for the future with their current quarterbacks, and they may not have much confidence in anything Chip Kelley does for them outside of ordering lunch.  And even that may get dicey at times.  Which brings us to Sunday's rematch of the other two teams in the division. 

The Giants lead the division, but their last two losses came on the last play of the game where they allowed the Saints and Patriots to drive down the field in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.  The Giants may be losing that moxie that saved them so many times in close situations, and Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are not getting any younger.  But the Redskins have at least some confidence in their quarterback for this season and possibly for the future. If you believe the reports that came out this week, The Redskins have enough confidence in Gruden that he will return next year.  All of this makes this game on Sunday more than just a battle for first place this year.  It could give the Redskins organization the shot of confidence they need to fill the looming vacuum that is being created by the hubris, incompetence, and aging of the other teams in the NFC East.  If the Redskins would like to change their fortunes this weekend here is what they need to do.

If you can't get up for a game like this.......: All poetic gravitas aside, the Redskins are playing for a tie for first place in the NFC East.  That should be enough motivation for the Redskins to come out firing on all cylinders, but if they need more motivation they should look at the records of the remaining opponents for all the NFC East teams:

Giants remaining opponents:      34-27
Eagles remaining opponents:      32-18
Cowboys remaining opponents: 21-20 (play redskins twice)
Redskins remaining opponents: 22-31 (play cowboys twice)

The Redskins have the easiest schedule on paper for the remainder of the season, but remember that the Redskins also have three more road games to play.  A win would put them in the drivers seat, but a loss would almost force them to win out in order to try and make the playoffs. 

Leave the Run; Take the Pass: It would behoove the Redskins to focus on beating the Giants defense with the pass first. The Giants have given up the most total completions, total passing yards, and yards per game so far this season.  They are also tied with the Falcons for fewest number of sacks this season with 12.  This plays into the Redskins passing style that relies on high completion percentage (Cousins is third in the league) and not taking sacks because of getting the ball out quickly.  Look for a lot of Jordan Reed to exploit the middle of the field, and quick hitters to Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to alleviate pressure.  Also, look for Crowder to get some looks with wide receiver screens to make the Giants spread out.  If the Redskins can get the passing game going it may open up the running lanes enough to have some success.  This is all predicated on the Redskins doing one thing.

Clock Control: The Redskins need to control the clock.  The Giants' offensive strength is efficiency.  The Giants score on 42.7% of their drives which is good for third in the league behind New England and Arizona, and only 0.7% ahead of Carolina who showed what can happen to the Redskins if they allow a team to score on every possession.  The Giants are also only turning the ball over on 9.1% of their drives compared to the Redskins who turn the ball over on 17.6% of their drives.  What's worse is that the Giants defense forces a turnover on 19.3% of their drives which is second best in the league behind Carolina. What all of this means is that the Giants score a lot, they don't turn the ball over very much, and if you are holding onto the ball too long they are taking it back so they can score again.  The Redskins need to be able to keep pace with the Giants by matching their efficiency through clock control and limiting turnovers.  Short passes will be the name of the game on Sunday, and taking advantage of favorable running situations in order to keep the ball away from the Giants' offense.

A Test of Character:  Finally, forgetting all the stats, this game will be about whether or not this team has really had a character change.  The talk this week has been about how good the Redskins have been at home this season and how well they have bounced back from losses, but certain individuals must answer the call to prove these notions are not just talking points for TV analysts.  Kirk Cousins needs to prove that he can win a game with legitimate playoff implications when all eyes are on him.  The defense needs to prove that it can come up with big stops against a team that terrorized them earlier this season, and who will look to exploit their deficiencies in the run game.  Finally, the coaching staff needs to prove that they can come up with a solid game plan in a meaningful game.  Just like Cousins, this will be Jay Gruden's first game as a head coach where there are legitimate playoff implications. How this team responds to the opening call, and how they adjust to the flow of the game will show how good of a head coach Jay Gruden really is. 

I have a bad feeling about this game.  The Giants' offense has been clicking the past three weeks, while the Redskins' defense continues to fall into despair.  No Chris Culliver means that Odell Beckham should be going all Keyshawn on Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin.  But I will go with the title of this article and say the world is changing.  Cousins has a solid, but not flashy, game and the defense is able to come up with one big play that keeps us in the game.  It will be close either way, but I'll believe the Redskins can do it.

Redskins win 24-20

Redskins vs. Giants: Into the Heart of Darkness

 When the Redskins walk into The Meadowlands on Thursday they will be entering a place that has haunted them for years.  Since 2000 the Redskins are 4-11 against the Giants in East Rutherford and they have been outscored 291-187 in those fifteen games.  The Redskins will also literally walk into darkness as they play at night, where they are 5-14 since 2000 in either Monday or Thursday Night games.  But alas Jay Gruden has espoused the mantra of a New Day for this Redskins team. The St. Louis game gave the fan base cause to buy into this notion, and the win against the Rams also forced the pundits of the world to come up with a better argument than condescending laughter to the notion that the Redskins can contend in the NFC East.  With the way the Giants have been playing it should not be outright lunacy to think that the Redskins can go on the road with their new found sense of grandeur and come out with a win that could cripple one of their challengers to the aforementioned division title.  But if 2007 taught us anything it is that the Eli Manning led Giants respond well to adversity, and they find themselves in the same position as in 2007; 0-2 and facing the Redskins.  If Washington expects to win in the Meadowlands for the first time since 2011 they will need to show that the Rams game was not a fluke, and the focus of this game plan should be on one man.

Kirk Cousins Needs to Drive the Offense:  This may sound crazy based on the way the Redskins have been able to run the ball the past two weeks, but the game plan should be focused on giving Cousins opportunities to move the offense.  Matt Jones and Alfred Morris are the best running tandem in the league, but it may surprise you that the Giants run defense has only given up 136 yards rushing and allows only 3 yards per rushing attempt.  The Giants know this and may take the advice of almost every talking head and load the box in order to try and stop the Redskins running attack.  If this is the case, and one can almost assume the Giants will at least try this, it means that Cousins will have to take control of this offense in order to keep drives moving on a defense that has given up 702 passing yards so far this season.  Those yards were given up to pass happy teams, but the Redskins may need to show that they can get a little pass happy in order to take pressure off of the run game.  Cousins already sports the fourth best completion percentage in the league (75.9%) and half of his completions have gone for first downs.  This means that he is asked to throw the ball in pressure situations in order to keep drives moving and he delivers in those situations more often than not.  This game will challenge Cousins to be more than a situational passer by seeing if he can make mid to long distance throws in order move the ball, and Sean McVay must give Cousins a game plan that allows him to throw the ball downfield.  Cousins will need to throw for over 250 yards if the Redskins expect to win in a game with less than 2 Giants turnovers.  Which brings us to the defense.

Secondary Needs to be on High Alert: The Redskins number one ranked defense may have benefitted from the fact that they did not have to face a top tier receiver the past two weeks.  They will Thursday when they face Odell Beckham, and he is the difference in an otherwise pedestrian passing game.  Eli Manning has a lower completion percentage, yards per attempt average, passing attempts, and passing yards than Ryan Tannehill so far this season so one begins to ask why should this week be any different than the past two for the Redskins secondary.  The answer is Odell Beckham.  He opened up last week and showed he can be a threat to score or get big chunks of yardage on every play.  The secondary must find a way to limit his big play ability, and keep his average under 15 yards per reception.  Aside from his 67 yard touchdown last week, Beckham averaged 11 yards per reception so anything over 15 yards per reception means Beckham is going for big catches that will lead the Giants to victory.  The secondary also needs to be on high alert for runs to the outside, and play action off of those runs.  The Rams were able to get the most yards on the ground from jet sweeps and runs away from the middle, and their touchdown was scored on a fake jet sweep that caught the corner looking in the backfield with no safety help.  You can bet the Giants will try to set the edges and test how physical the corners really are, and don't think they haven't noticed that the Redskins defense really has not been tested this year in the run game.  The Redskins have the lowest amount of rushing attempts against them in the league yet they give up the seventh highest yards per attempt.  Expect Culliver, Hall, and Breeland to be busy in both run and pass defense as the Giants try to favor the outside runs early to set up the Redskins cornerbacks for big plays later on. 

Unstoppable Force Meets an Immovable Object: The one area where the Giants stand out statistically is in the efficiency of their offensive drives, and it may be the key to this game.  The Giants have scored on 45% of their drives and average about 6.6 plays per drive.  The Redskins defense, however, has allowed teams to score on only 19.6% of their drives with an average of 4.9 plays per drive.  Something has to give.  Either the Redskins stymie The Giants' offense and allow their offense to have a chance to operate their brutal running assault with impunity, or the Giants field goal themselves into a position to hit Beckham on a long touchdown late in the game that forces the Redskins to abandon their run heavy approach.  Limiting turnovers and big plays will be the key to winning this nerdy stat game. 

This has the makings of a game that has an outcome that no one saw coming.  The Redskins' running game could be shut down to the point where Kirk Cousins needs to make plays on a regular basis and have a respectable NFL stat line.  The Giants could come out running the ball to test the Redskins defense in order to open up things for Odell Beckham and keep the Redskins defense on the field longer than they have been all season.  All of these will be attempted, but Morris and Jones do their best vintage Joker impression and show the Giants who the new beasts of the east are:


Score: 27-20 Redskins win.