Is it Guice? Is it Vea? Is it James? Is it Ward? Do the Redskins trade up? Will the Redskins trade down? Will all 12 teams in front of the Redskins have aneurysms right when they pick and let Fitzpatrick fall to 13? There are so many questions about who the Redskins will draft in the first round. The idea that they will take Guice is gaining tons of traction, as is the notion that they can trade back to recoup the third round pick they gave up for Alex Smith. Wherever they draft in the first round, the Redskins should heed the old boxing adage of "it's not about how well you throw a punch, it's about how well you take a punch" and draft this DT that will help them stop the run.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 1 (13th Overall Selection): Da'Ron Payne DT (Alabama)
Height: 6'2" Weight: 311 lbs 40 yrd: 4.95 Reps: 27 Cone Drill: 7.58
Vita Vea looks like the no brainer pick at 13, but all indications coming from Redskins Park make it seem as if the Redskins' front office may be lukewarm about the underdeveloped nature of Vea's game. Payne is the more polished pick, and with Jonathan Allen and Ryan Anderson already on the team it makes sense that Bruce Allen would want to take a page out of Lefty Driesell's playbook and make Redskins Park the Alabama of the North. Payne would bring the run stopping presence and mentality the Redskins need in order to allow Alex Smith the time to operate an offense. Payne was a Top 20 national high school recruit who weighed in at 350 pounds before slimming down at Alabama. That may have been a good thing since he started the past two seasons at nose tackle for the Crimson Tide amassing 33 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, and 4 passes defended during that time. Scouts note that Payne already plays like a professional, with an impressive level of natural strength and high leadership qualities. Scouts also highlight his ability to eat up blocks, and teams will need to scheme for him due to his ability to anchor the defensive line and command double teams. Payne has a high level of athleticism for the position, and he showed signs this past year that he is honing that athleticism into better pass rushing skills. He also displayed an ability to beat linemen with both power and skill, and he has the ability to range beyond his assignment in order to make plays. Payne is not without his downsides. His biggest issue is that he does not always get a good jump off the snap, which causes him to lose leverage at the line of scrimmage. Scouts also note his pedestrian pass rush skills that are easily contained if his first move does not work. This could limit Payne to playing solely on early downs in order to stop the run. All players have downsides, however, and Payne's upsides would be a worthy investment of a first round pick by the Redskins.
The Redskins need an answer in stopping the run in order to prevent Alex Smith from having to whip the ball up and down the field to keep pace with the other team. While Vita Vea may be literally, and figuratively, the bigger name on the DT Draft Board, Payne may be more of what the Redskins are looking for in a nose tackle. He has a high level of strength and athleticism for a guy his size, and while Vea has about 20-30 pounds on Payne, Vea lacks the consistency found in Payne's game. There may be less of a learning curve with Payne and Allen having played together at Alabama, and that collective camaraderie is something that has been lacking on the Redskins defensive line for some time. That sense of unity will be needed to stop a daunting list of running backs this season that includes David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliot, Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Jay Ajayi, Devontae Freeman, a rejuvenated Derrick Henry, and possibly Saquon Barkley if the Giants get froggy with their second pick. The Redskins will need to win the battles up front in order to prevent these backs from dictating the pace of the game, and drafting Payne to bolster the D-Line will do just that. It may be tough to justify taking Payne with the 13th pick so there may be a trade down in order to regain the 3rd round pick the Redskins lost in the Alex Smith trade. But the Redskins should not let perception get in the way of drafting the player that they need. If no good offer comes the Redskins way to trade out of 13 then they will need to pull the trigger on Da'Ron Payne and have him finally be the anchor of that 3-4 defensive line they have been looking for or so long.
Showing posts with label HTTR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HTTR. Show all posts
Sunday, April 22, 2018
Thursday, April 19, 2018
Redskins 2018 Draft Special Round 2 (Pick 44)
A lot of Mock Drafts have the Redskins taking a skill position player in the second round, but what will those players do if they don't have the protection up front to be successful? The Redskins need to go O-Line in the second round.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 2 (44th Overall Selection): Billy Price C (Ohio State)
Height: 6'4" Weight: 305 lbs
It is concerning that Billy Price suffered a torn pectoral muscle while warming up for the bench press at the NFL Combine. The injury is said to be minor, though, and the Redskins should heed that advice and take a long hard look at Price if he is available at the 44th pick. Price was Co-Defensive Player of the Year as a high school senior in Ohio, but he was moved to offensive line when he got to Ohio State. He began his career as a Guard where he started all 15 games as a freshman on the 2014 National Championship Team. He filled in at left guard his sophomore year where he garnered Third Team All-Big Ten honors, and he moved to right guard the next year and was First Team All-Big Ten. Last year he was moved to center where he won the Remington Trophy as the Nation's top center and was First Team All-American. His meteoric rise throughout his college career is due to an impressive set of skills. Scouts note his incredible strength and ability to move defenders off the line of scrimmage. He has the ability to play in space and to hold his position on the line, and he has significant experience at both guard positions and center. Price sets a strong anchor in pass protection, and he plays with a mean streak to compliment his physicality. It is this mean streak, though, that brings the negative side of Price's game. Price tends to be too aggressive at times, and gets himself out of position by over lunging at the defender. Scouts note that Price may rely too heavily on his brute strength, which causes his footwork to go dead and allow more athletic rushers to get by him. Finally, his mean demeanor has given him the moniker of being a tough personality to deal with, but the Redskins need high level depth on the offensive line after what happened last year.
The Redskins offensive line became a MASH Unit by the end of last season, and it was a big reason why the Redskins had trouble running the football and protecting Kirk Cousins as the season progressed. Guys like Derrius Guice, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk are good, but what happens if the offensive line cannot provide the protection to make these skill players successful? Price is the answer for people who wonder if Arie Kuandjio is up to the task of starting at Left Guard, and it gives the Redskins interior line a jolt of high level starting talent. Price's over aggressiveness is a concern, but that can be remedied through coaching. It is harder to coach up desire than it is to teach temperance, and Bill Callahan seems to be just the guy to work with Price on fixing some of the holes in his game. Alex Smith will need protection, and whatever running back starts for the Redskins will need holes to run through. Price brings all of that to the table, and he should be the guy the Redskins select with the 44th pick if he is there even if Guice is still available.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 2 (44th Overall Selection): Billy Price C (Ohio State)
Height: 6'4" Weight: 305 lbs
It is concerning that Billy Price suffered a torn pectoral muscle while warming up for the bench press at the NFL Combine. The injury is said to be minor, though, and the Redskins should heed that advice and take a long hard look at Price if he is available at the 44th pick. Price was Co-Defensive Player of the Year as a high school senior in Ohio, but he was moved to offensive line when he got to Ohio State. He began his career as a Guard where he started all 15 games as a freshman on the 2014 National Championship Team. He filled in at left guard his sophomore year where he garnered Third Team All-Big Ten honors, and he moved to right guard the next year and was First Team All-Big Ten. Last year he was moved to center where he won the Remington Trophy as the Nation's top center and was First Team All-American. His meteoric rise throughout his college career is due to an impressive set of skills. Scouts note his incredible strength and ability to move defenders off the line of scrimmage. He has the ability to play in space and to hold his position on the line, and he has significant experience at both guard positions and center. Price sets a strong anchor in pass protection, and he plays with a mean streak to compliment his physicality. It is this mean streak, though, that brings the negative side of Price's game. Price tends to be too aggressive at times, and gets himself out of position by over lunging at the defender. Scouts note that Price may rely too heavily on his brute strength, which causes his footwork to go dead and allow more athletic rushers to get by him. Finally, his mean demeanor has given him the moniker of being a tough personality to deal with, but the Redskins need high level depth on the offensive line after what happened last year.
The Redskins offensive line became a MASH Unit by the end of last season, and it was a big reason why the Redskins had trouble running the football and protecting Kirk Cousins as the season progressed. Guys like Derrius Guice, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk are good, but what happens if the offensive line cannot provide the protection to make these skill players successful? Price is the answer for people who wonder if Arie Kuandjio is up to the task of starting at Left Guard, and it gives the Redskins interior line a jolt of high level starting talent. Price's over aggressiveness is a concern, but that can be remedied through coaching. It is harder to coach up desire than it is to teach temperance, and Bill Callahan seems to be just the guy to work with Price on fixing some of the holes in his game. Alex Smith will need protection, and whatever running back starts for the Redskins will need holes to run through. Price brings all of that to the table, and he should be the guy the Redskins select with the 44th pick if he is there even if Guice is still available.
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Redskins 2018 Draft Special Round 4 (Pick 109)
Hopefully moving up four spots in the fourth round from the Su'a Cravens trade allows the Redskins to draft this RB that may not be getting as much run as all the others
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 4 (109th Overall Selection): Kalen Ballage RB (Arizona State)
Height: 6'1" Weight: 228 lbs Reps: 15 40 yd: 4.46 Cone Drill: 6.91 Broad Jump: 122
Just hear me out on this one. I know everyone is fawning over the running backs in the first and second round, and I know I have stated that it is not worth taking a running back outside of the second round, but Kalen Ballage (pronounced BA-Lahj) should be a guy the Redskins consider taking in the fourth round and leaving the first and second round picks for other needs. Ballage was a four year player at Arizona State where he split carries with another back his Junior and Senior Year. Even with splitting time over the pats two seasons, Ballage was able to amass 20 rushing TD's and over 1700 yards from scrimmage. These two stats highlight Ballage's value to the Redskins. He is a versatile back that has run out of read option formations, single back formations, I-formations, and wildcat formations. He is a talented receiver out of the backfield, who can also line up in the slot, and he has kick returning ability. Ballage is also extremely fast with a 4.46 in the 40, and you have to imagine a 6'1" 228 lb running back who ran a faster 40 at the combine that Guice can wreck people in the open field once he reaches top speed. The problem is he had a little trouble with that this past season due to teams stacking the box against him. Ballage is not a shifty type back, and he is somewhat tentative at the line of scrimmage which caused him to miss open running lanes. Scouts also note that he lacks the vision and sharp cutting ability to find tight seems when running to the edge. So where's the upside to drafting another running back in the fourth round? The answer is insurance.
Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley do not have the pass catching skills of Chris Thompson, and Thompson does not have the size to run through the tackles to get the tough yards. Ballage has both, and if any of these backs were to go down the Redskins could plug in Ballage and not miss a beat. Ballage has the power to gain tough yards in short down or goal line situations, and he can be a home run hitter in catching passes out of the backfield. Just watch some of his highlights. Ballage can do it all, and he would not have to be THE guy right away. He has spent the past two years sharing time at Arizona State, and he could play the same role to begin his career in Washington with the ability to move up if he shows promise. Taking Ballage after the second round also allows the Redskins to spend a high pick on the offensive line in order to open up better holes for the running game. Yes, Guice and Penny may be the hotter picks, but Ballage has similar running skills and better pass catching ability. He is someone who would add versatility to an RB corps that is one injury away from becoming one dimensional. Just look at what happened last year. Ballage is someone the Redskins should seriously consider taking outside the second round, and he may even be worth trading into the third round to get. Think David Johnson playing for the Redskins without a wrist injury and that is Kalen Ballage. Lets go get him.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 4 (109th Overall Selection): Kalen Ballage RB (Arizona State)
Height: 6'1" Weight: 228 lbs Reps: 15 40 yd: 4.46 Cone Drill: 6.91 Broad Jump: 122
Just hear me out on this one. I know everyone is fawning over the running backs in the first and second round, and I know I have stated that it is not worth taking a running back outside of the second round, but Kalen Ballage (pronounced BA-Lahj) should be a guy the Redskins consider taking in the fourth round and leaving the first and second round picks for other needs. Ballage was a four year player at Arizona State where he split carries with another back his Junior and Senior Year. Even with splitting time over the pats two seasons, Ballage was able to amass 20 rushing TD's and over 1700 yards from scrimmage. These two stats highlight Ballage's value to the Redskins. He is a versatile back that has run out of read option formations, single back formations, I-formations, and wildcat formations. He is a talented receiver out of the backfield, who can also line up in the slot, and he has kick returning ability. Ballage is also extremely fast with a 4.46 in the 40, and you have to imagine a 6'1" 228 lb running back who ran a faster 40 at the combine that Guice can wreck people in the open field once he reaches top speed. The problem is he had a little trouble with that this past season due to teams stacking the box against him. Ballage is not a shifty type back, and he is somewhat tentative at the line of scrimmage which caused him to miss open running lanes. Scouts also note that he lacks the vision and sharp cutting ability to find tight seems when running to the edge. So where's the upside to drafting another running back in the fourth round? The answer is insurance.
Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley do not have the pass catching skills of Chris Thompson, and Thompson does not have the size to run through the tackles to get the tough yards. Ballage has both, and if any of these backs were to go down the Redskins could plug in Ballage and not miss a beat. Ballage has the power to gain tough yards in short down or goal line situations, and he can be a home run hitter in catching passes out of the backfield. Just watch some of his highlights. Ballage can do it all, and he would not have to be THE guy right away. He has spent the past two years sharing time at Arizona State, and he could play the same role to begin his career in Washington with the ability to move up if he shows promise. Taking Ballage after the second round also allows the Redskins to spend a high pick on the offensive line in order to open up better holes for the running game. Yes, Guice and Penny may be the hotter picks, but Ballage has similar running skills and better pass catching ability. He is someone who would add versatility to an RB corps that is one injury away from becoming one dimensional. Just look at what happened last year. Ballage is someone the Redskins should seriously consider taking outside the second round, and he may even be worth trading into the third round to get. Think David Johnson playing for the Redskins without a wrist injury and that is Kalen Ballage. Lets go get him.
Sunday, April 15, 2018
Redskins 2018 Draft Special Round 5 (Pick 142)
The Redskins keep winning in the short term with the Su'a Cravens deal. The Redskins original 5th round pick was number 149, but Cravens moved the Redskins up all the way to 142 in order to draft his potential replacement. Maybe.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 5 (142nd Overall Selection): Godwin Igwebuike S (Northwestern)
Height: 6'0" Weight: 205 lbs Reps: 19 40 yd: 4.44 Cone Drill: 6.56 20yrd Shuttle: 4.12
Admittedly, this would be an ideal scenario for the Redskins to be able to draft Godwin Igwebuike (ig-weh-BYU-kay) at this pick. It is possible he goes earlier than this due to his impressive combine performance. But if he is there, and the Redskins have not already drafted a safety, they would be crazy to pass on a player of his caliber. Igwebuike was a three year starter at Northwestern where he garnered Second Team All-Big 10 honors as a junior and senior, and he was voted team captain his senior year. Scouts highlight his high intelligence level and his physical demeanor that made him a successful run stuffer as evidenced by his combined 7 TFL's his junior and senior season from the safety position. There are concerns that he may be limited to strong safety due to his deficiencies in man coverage, his lack of ability to anticipate and read routes in zone coverage, and the overall stiffness with which he plays in covering receivers. His combine numbers, though, leave room for speculation that Igwebuike's down sides can be remedied with coaching. His 40 time was fifth among safeties at the combine and his Cone Drill was tied for first. These physical skills, coupled with Igwebuike's positive production on special teams and his familial relationship to Christian Okoye, should make him an ideal candidate for the Redskins to draft and develop over the next few seasons.
The Redskins need depth at safety after trading Su'a Cravens, and while Igwebuike may not be a starter that will make an immediate impact, he has the tools that could give the Redskins some options in case anything happens. You know. In case anyone gets injured. In case Montae Nicholson's injury status remain precarious. In case DJ Swearinger's rants become too out of hand this season. In case Deshazor Everett can't cut the mustard. In case we have to rely on some guy named Fish to fill in at safety. Igwebuike could be there waiting to help in case those things happen, and in the mean time he could be a valuable addition to special teams while honing his skills as a cover safety. He definitely has the physical skills to do so, and with his already polished run support capabilities the Redskins should look to take Igwebuike if he is still on the board at 142.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 5 (142nd Overall Selection): Godwin Igwebuike S (Northwestern)
Height: 6'0" Weight: 205 lbs Reps: 19 40 yd: 4.44 Cone Drill: 6.56 20yrd Shuttle: 4.12
Admittedly, this would be an ideal scenario for the Redskins to be able to draft Godwin Igwebuike (ig-weh-BYU-kay) at this pick. It is possible he goes earlier than this due to his impressive combine performance. But if he is there, and the Redskins have not already drafted a safety, they would be crazy to pass on a player of his caliber. Igwebuike was a three year starter at Northwestern where he garnered Second Team All-Big 10 honors as a junior and senior, and he was voted team captain his senior year. Scouts highlight his high intelligence level and his physical demeanor that made him a successful run stuffer as evidenced by his combined 7 TFL's his junior and senior season from the safety position. There are concerns that he may be limited to strong safety due to his deficiencies in man coverage, his lack of ability to anticipate and read routes in zone coverage, and the overall stiffness with which he plays in covering receivers. His combine numbers, though, leave room for speculation that Igwebuike's down sides can be remedied with coaching. His 40 time was fifth among safeties at the combine and his Cone Drill was tied for first. These physical skills, coupled with Igwebuike's positive production on special teams and his familial relationship to Christian Okoye, should make him an ideal candidate for the Redskins to draft and develop over the next few seasons.
The Redskins need depth at safety after trading Su'a Cravens, and while Igwebuike may not be a starter that will make an immediate impact, he has the tools that could give the Redskins some options in case anything happens. You know. In case anyone gets injured. In case Montae Nicholson's injury status remain precarious. In case DJ Swearinger's rants become too out of hand this season. In case Deshazor Everett can't cut the mustard. In case we have to rely on some guy named Fish to fill in at safety. Igwebuike could be there waiting to help in case those things happen, and in the mean time he could be a valuable addition to special teams while honing his skills as a cover safety. He definitely has the physical skills to do so, and with his already polished run support capabilities the Redskins should look to take Igwebuike if he is still on the board at 142.
Friday, April 13, 2018
Redskins 2018 Draft Special Round 5 (Pick 163)
The Redskins actually got something for Su'a Cravens. We'll see if trading Cravens was a bad idea, but in the short term, and in the spirit of sunk costs, this 5th round pick is a boon that could turn into a solid player.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 5 (163rd Overall Selection): Darius Phillips CB (Western Michigan)
Height: 5'10" Weight: 190 lbs Reps: 9 40 yd: 4.54 20yrd Shuttle: 4.18
The Redskins defensive worries cannot all be remedied by beefing up the front seven. There needs to be added talent in the secondary in order to defend the pass, and Darius Phillips out of Western Michigan fits the bill perfectly. A disciple of PJ Fleck's "Row the Boat" philosophy, Phillips was a big in state signing for the Broncos in 2014 as a wide receiver/kick returner. Phillips has modest success as a freshman wide out, but he was moved to cornerback in 2015 where he was an All-MAC Conference Player the last three years. Now, it is easy when you play against a bunch of rejects in the MAC, but in those three years Phillips racked up 35 PD's, 12 INT's, 4 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, 2 sacks, 5 defensive TD's, and 6 return TD's (5 KR, 1 PR). Phillips may have played against perceived inferior competition, but he sure beat their brains in with a talent level that should pique the Redskins interest. Scouts note that he has a quick backpedal and fluid turn and sprint skills. They also note his impeccable ball hawking skills, his instinctive ability to diagnose routes, his ability to play both man and zone, and his experience as a returner. The big knock on Phillips is that he is very soft against the run where he can be exploited if he is to play the slot in the NFL. Unfortunately, most scouts project that he needs to play in the slot in order to maximize his strengths as a man corner. He is also undersized at 5'10", and being undersized and soft is not a good combination, but his skills as a cover corner are what the Redskins need.
This pick may seem redundant since the Redskins drafted Fabian Moreau in the third round last year. Moreau was hurt most of last year, though, and with the departure of Kendall Fuller the Redskins need a reliable cover corner in the slot. Maybe that is Moreau. Maybe that is another converted receiver in Quinton Dunbar, but it is always good to have an insurance policy considering the only other corner on the roster is Josh Holsey. Phillips seems to have the talent in coverage that could replace Fuller, and his abilities as a returner would make him more versatile on this roster. His 4.5 speed leaves something to be desired, but at his Pro-Day he ran a 4.40. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but that is a good middle to have and think if the Redskins could finally have a true punt returner that allows Jamison Crowder to focus on catching passes. Phillips's deficiencies in run support are a red flag for a team that was one of the worst against the run, but Phillips could be used sparingly in obvious passing situations in order to develop him at a more modest pace. There are other pressing needs at higher picks, but cornerback depth is something the Redskins cannot neglect with the injury status of Fabian Moreau. Phillips would be a great addition if he can be acquired with this pick.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 5 (163rd Overall Selection): Darius Phillips CB (Western Michigan)
Height: 5'10" Weight: 190 lbs Reps: 9 40 yd: 4.54 20yrd Shuttle: 4.18
The Redskins defensive worries cannot all be remedied by beefing up the front seven. There needs to be added talent in the secondary in order to defend the pass, and Darius Phillips out of Western Michigan fits the bill perfectly. A disciple of PJ Fleck's "Row the Boat" philosophy, Phillips was a big in state signing for the Broncos in 2014 as a wide receiver/kick returner. Phillips has modest success as a freshman wide out, but he was moved to cornerback in 2015 where he was an All-MAC Conference Player the last three years. Now, it is easy when you play against a bunch of rejects in the MAC, but in those three years Phillips racked up 35 PD's, 12 INT's, 4 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, 2 sacks, 5 defensive TD's, and 6 return TD's (5 KR, 1 PR). Phillips may have played against perceived inferior competition, but he sure beat their brains in with a talent level that should pique the Redskins interest. Scouts note that he has a quick backpedal and fluid turn and sprint skills. They also note his impeccable ball hawking skills, his instinctive ability to diagnose routes, his ability to play both man and zone, and his experience as a returner. The big knock on Phillips is that he is very soft against the run where he can be exploited if he is to play the slot in the NFL. Unfortunately, most scouts project that he needs to play in the slot in order to maximize his strengths as a man corner. He is also undersized at 5'10", and being undersized and soft is not a good combination, but his skills as a cover corner are what the Redskins need.
This pick may seem redundant since the Redskins drafted Fabian Moreau in the third round last year. Moreau was hurt most of last year, though, and with the departure of Kendall Fuller the Redskins need a reliable cover corner in the slot. Maybe that is Moreau. Maybe that is another converted receiver in Quinton Dunbar, but it is always good to have an insurance policy considering the only other corner on the roster is Josh Holsey. Phillips seems to have the talent in coverage that could replace Fuller, and his abilities as a returner would make him more versatile on this roster. His 4.5 speed leaves something to be desired, but at his Pro-Day he ran a 4.40. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but that is a good middle to have and think if the Redskins could finally have a true punt returner that allows Jamison Crowder to focus on catching passes. Phillips's deficiencies in run support are a red flag for a team that was one of the worst against the run, but Phillips could be used sparingly in obvious passing situations in order to develop him at a more modest pace. There are other pressing needs at higher picks, but cornerback depth is something the Redskins cannot neglect with the injury status of Fabian Moreau. Phillips would be a great addition if he can be acquired with this pick.
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Redskins 2018 Draft Special Round 6 (Pick 205)
The Redskins finally did it. Move over Colt McCoy because Kevin Hogan is now here to take your backup job from you. In return for Hogan's services the Redskins had to swap the 188th pick for the Browns' 205th pick this year, where hopefully they can still draft this wide receiver.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 6 (205th Overall Selection): Steve Ishmael WR (Syracuse)
Height: 6'2" Weight: 210 lbs 40 yd: 4.59 Vert: 32.5 Cone Drill: 6.84
What if a receiver was a down field threat because he could catch anything that was thrown to him rather than being a burner? Steve Ishmael is the answer to that question. Ishmael played in 47 out of a possible 48 games for Syracuse with 39 starts between 2014-2017, and his senior year numbers are eye popping. Ishmael hauled in 105 receptions for 1,347 yards and seven TD's in 2017, which garnered him unanimous First-Team All ACC honors and a big Stone Cold Steve Austin Salute from the NFL Combine representatives. That may be good for the Redskins considering that scouts have noted his ability to adjust quickly to the ball and make sudden catches, especially on downfield throws. He is a big receiver who can wall off smaller DB's and he plays with a nasty intensity. His lack of speed, though, is a concern because it has caused him to have a low YAC, slow route speed, and a lack of separation from his defender. Scouts also note that despite his size, Ishmael has trouble beating press coverage off the line. His upside may not be what HTTR nation is looking for, but it may be what they need if they consider a few points.
First, Ishmael's 105 receptions are second all-time in ACC single season history behind.......wait for it.......Jamison Crowder who had 108 receptions in 2013. Second, which receiver do you trust to make those tough catches in traffic or one-on-one coverage? Not Crowder. Doctson has proven to be soft, Jordan Reed is too injury prone, and Richardson was brought in to be the burner. Ishmael is the guy that we need to get the tough yards, and someone Alex Smith can trust will get the ball by winning his one-on-one battles through physical play and intelligence. Just watch his tape and tell me you don't see Pierre Garcon. Redskins fans are calling for a burner, but I say we go with a guy who can catch anything that is thrown to him, create separation at the last minute, and make catches in tight spaces to gain tough yards. Steve Ishmael is that guy who could command safety help because one defender just won't cut it in denying him the ball. A 6th Round pick may be ambitious considering most outlets have him going undrafted, but it may be wise for Bruce Allen to add some edge to the receiving corps before someone else does.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 6 (205th Overall Selection): Steve Ishmael WR (Syracuse)
Height: 6'2" Weight: 210 lbs 40 yd: 4.59 Vert: 32.5 Cone Drill: 6.84
What if a receiver was a down field threat because he could catch anything that was thrown to him rather than being a burner? Steve Ishmael is the answer to that question. Ishmael played in 47 out of a possible 48 games for Syracuse with 39 starts between 2014-2017, and his senior year numbers are eye popping. Ishmael hauled in 105 receptions for 1,347 yards and seven TD's in 2017, which garnered him unanimous First-Team All ACC honors and a big Stone Cold Steve Austin Salute from the NFL Combine representatives. That may be good for the Redskins considering that scouts have noted his ability to adjust quickly to the ball and make sudden catches, especially on downfield throws. He is a big receiver who can wall off smaller DB's and he plays with a nasty intensity. His lack of speed, though, is a concern because it has caused him to have a low YAC, slow route speed, and a lack of separation from his defender. Scouts also note that despite his size, Ishmael has trouble beating press coverage off the line. His upside may not be what HTTR nation is looking for, but it may be what they need if they consider a few points.
First, Ishmael's 105 receptions are second all-time in ACC single season history behind.......wait for it.......Jamison Crowder who had 108 receptions in 2013. Second, which receiver do you trust to make those tough catches in traffic or one-on-one coverage? Not Crowder. Doctson has proven to be soft, Jordan Reed is too injury prone, and Richardson was brought in to be the burner. Ishmael is the guy that we need to get the tough yards, and someone Alex Smith can trust will get the ball by winning his one-on-one battles through physical play and intelligence. Just watch his tape and tell me you don't see Pierre Garcon. Redskins fans are calling for a burner, but I say we go with a guy who can catch anything that is thrown to him, create separation at the last minute, and make catches in tight spaces to gain tough yards. Steve Ishmael is that guy who could command safety help because one defender just won't cut it in denying him the ball. A 6th Round pick may be ambitious considering most outlets have him going undrafted, but it may be wise for Bruce Allen to add some edge to the receiving corps before someone else does.
Monday, April 9, 2018
Redskins 2018 Draft Special Round 7 (Pick 231)
In a 3-4 Defense you can never have too many linebackers, and this one may be hard to pass on if he is there at 231.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 7 (231st Overall Selection): Keishawn Bierria LB (Washington)
Height: 6'2" Weight: 230 lbs 40 yd: 4.79 Bench Press: 16 reps Vert: 30.5
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect.
Round 7 (231st Overall Selection): Keishawn Bierria LB (Washington)
Height: 6'2" Weight: 230 lbs 40 yd: 4.79 Bench Press: 16 reps Vert: 30.5
Not the flashiest pick, but someone who can get the job done. Keishawn Bierria was actually one of the mid to lower performing linebackers at the combine, but his skill set lies outside of pure athleticism. Bierria is noted as having a high football IQ after playing in a majority of every season since 2014 at Washington. Scouts note his ability to diagnose plays and see things before they happen. He is good at reading misdirection, and he possesses good closing speed and aggressiveness at the point of attack that allowed him to be around the ball more often than naught (5 fumble recoveries in 2016 and 7 for his career). The most important feature that the Redskins should covet this late in the draft is his work ethic and his high leadership qualities. Bierria was only the fifth player in 110 years to win Washington's Guy Flaherty Most Inspirational Award twice. The trade off is that Bierria is low on the athletic spectrum. Scouts note that he can be beat on the edge by pure speed, and that he is more reactive than aggressive. This gives him a small margin for error that will get even smaller at the NFL level, and it makes it so that he may need to be moved inside to play more to his skill set. Despite these athletic shortcomings, the Redskins would be crazy to pass on Bierria at this pick.
You either need to draft for skill or intangibles, and Bierria is the latter. A shot of work ethic may be what the inside linebacking corps of this team needs considering what has transpired over the past year. Zach Brown needed a little more time to think about coming back than Redskins fans would have liked, and lets not forget that Mason Foster's little rant after he was shut down for the season back in October made people think he did not want to come back here. With these two players being the starters this season it may be beneficial for the Redskins to choose high character over high skill set at this pick. Bierria brings much more than character, though, and the Redskins should take him as someone who can progress from a college playmaker to an NFL playmaker.
Saturday, April 7, 2018
Redskins 2018 Draft Special Round 7 (Pick 241)
It is that time of year again. The time where the NFL reminds all other sports why it does not matter how many CTE lawsuits come at them, their Draft will outdo any other Spring sports programming. The NFL Draft is less than three weeks away and for the Redskins fan base this year's Draft will be quite a conundrum. The first 12 picks in this Draft will dictate the Redskins strategy, but it is insane how many iterations there are of those first 12 picks that continue to keep all of HTTR nation guessing. Will Minkah Fitzpatrick fall to 13? Derwin James or Vita Vea? Is Derrius Guice worth the 13th overall pick? Should we trade back to get an RB later in the first round? Do we try to recover the 3rd round pick we lost in the Alex Smith trade? Whatever the answers, it will be a crazy Draft and I attempt to guess who the Redskins will select. Remember that I assume there are no trades and the Redskins keep all of their picks. Maybe you should take note because last year was very, very good to me. I called the Josh Harvey-Clemons selection, albeit one round early. I said they would go D-Line in the first round. I said they would choose an RB in the fourth round and not the second, and I said they would go with a center late in the draft. Some would call that luck, I would call it......luck, but here's hoping this year's choices are just as good.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect. Without further ado lets begin the 2018 Redskins Draft with the gift that keeps on giving....Derrick Carrier. Earlier this year, the Redskins traded Derrick Carrier to the Rams for a 7th Round pick that turned into the 241st overall selection and hopefully into this gem out of Army.
Round 7 (241st Overall Selection): Brett Toth OT (Army)
Height: 6'6" Weight: 291 lbs 40 yd: 5.14 Bench Press: 16 reps 20 yrd Shuttle: 4.75
If you haven't noticed, the Redskins two starting tackles will not be at OTA's due to injury. Trent Williams and Morgan Moses still need time to heal, and in the meanwhile the Redskins could draft an insurance policy with this pick. Brett Toth is an athletic tackle that fits well into a zone running scheme. He looks to move towards the second level, and he has the agility to redirect blocks when they try to come off the edge. Scouts note his toughness at the point of attack, and they note that he shows good hustle in space. His 20 yard shuttle time is from his pro day, but that time would have been first by 0.2 seconds at the combine. There are major concerns with his size and lack of pass protection experience due to Army's offensive scheme, but who better to mentor him than Bill Callahan? Toth is the perfect 7th Round project pick that could turn into a much needed short term backup for the Redskins.
Trent Williams is not getting any younger, and the only legitimate replacement we have for him is Ty Nsekhe. Toth will not be ready to replace either of them this year, but he can learn from the best and develop his skills and size to hopefully be ready by next season. Toth has the intangibles needed to be successful in Jay Gruden's system, and he will have the time in Washington to learn at a more steady pace. The Redskins desperately need more bodies at the tackle position, and Toth gives some sense of competition to guys like TJ Clemmings and John Kling. He may not be ready this year, but they do not need him to be. They just need a return on the investment in 2-3 years, and Toth's skill set may turn out to be a steal for a 7th Round pick.
Note: All scouting information comes from CBS Sports , NFL Combine Results Page, plus help from Walter Football, Ourlads, Drafttek, and DraftScout. Please check these sites out for all the work that they do in informing all of us laypeople about every possible college prospect. Without further ado lets begin the 2018 Redskins Draft with the gift that keeps on giving....Derrick Carrier. Earlier this year, the Redskins traded Derrick Carrier to the Rams for a 7th Round pick that turned into the 241st overall selection and hopefully into this gem out of Army.
Round 7 (241st Overall Selection): Brett Toth OT (Army)
Height: 6'6" Weight: 291 lbs 40 yd: 5.14 Bench Press: 16 reps 20 yrd Shuttle: 4.75
If you haven't noticed, the Redskins two starting tackles will not be at OTA's due to injury. Trent Williams and Morgan Moses still need time to heal, and in the meanwhile the Redskins could draft an insurance policy with this pick. Brett Toth is an athletic tackle that fits well into a zone running scheme. He looks to move towards the second level, and he has the agility to redirect blocks when they try to come off the edge. Scouts note his toughness at the point of attack, and they note that he shows good hustle in space. His 20 yard shuttle time is from his pro day, but that time would have been first by 0.2 seconds at the combine. There are major concerns with his size and lack of pass protection experience due to Army's offensive scheme, but who better to mentor him than Bill Callahan? Toth is the perfect 7th Round project pick that could turn into a much needed short term backup for the Redskins.
Trent Williams is not getting any younger, and the only legitimate replacement we have for him is Ty Nsekhe. Toth will not be ready to replace either of them this year, but he can learn from the best and develop his skills and size to hopefully be ready by next season. Toth has the intangibles needed to be successful in Jay Gruden's system, and he will have the time in Washington to learn at a more steady pace. The Redskins desperately need more bodies at the tackle position, and Toth gives some sense of competition to guys like TJ Clemmings and John Kling. He may not be ready this year, but they do not need him to be. They just need a return on the investment in 2-3 years, and Toth's skill set may turn out to be a steal for a 7th Round pick.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Alex Smith Is Not Good At Anything Except for Winning
Alex Smith's press conference this Thursday finally put the charade of pretending there was a possibility of the trade not going through to rest. Alex Smith is the quarterback for the Washington Redskins for at least the near future. His introduction by Doug Williams, however, had some portends that every Redskins fan should have taken as a sign that there is still a lot to be done in this offseason to make sure there is no regret about letting Kirk Cousins walk out the door. Williams alluded to the fact that there are still holes on this roster that need to be addressed in order to make the team more complete. What he meant was that the holes needed to be filled in order to make Alex Smith a winner here in Washington. It may be hard for Redskins fans to accept, but Alex Smith is statistically inferior to Cousins over the last three seasons in almost all major categories except for one. And it is the one that has the most factors attached to its execution. Winning.
Alex Smith has been able to win 31 regular season games over the last three seasons. His regular season win total in that time span is only eclipsed by Cam Newton and Tom Brady. A look at his total stats over that time frame, however, should make Redskins fans wonder how he achieved that feat. Alex Smith has 46 regular season starts over the last three seasons, and when comparing his numbers to the 20 other quarterbacks with 40 or more starts (plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39 starts over the last three seasons) his numbers are fairly pedestrian if not concerning. Alex Smith has thrown for only 11,030 yards over the last three seasons which ranks him 13th out of this group. He has only thrown 61 TD's over the last three seasons. The only quarterbacks lower than Smith in that area are Joe Flacco, Marcus Mariota, and Tyrod Taylor. Looking at that stat in another light would be to compare Alex Smith's 61 TD's to those quarterbacks who have had a comparable amount of attempts. Smith has 1464 attempts over the last three seasons. The other quarterbacks who have between 1400-1499 attempts are Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Andy Dalton. Rodgers and Dalton both have less attempts (1420 and 1445) and more touchdowns (87 and 68) than Alex Smith, and Cam Newton has thrown 76 touchdowns on only 33 more attempts. What is even more staggering is that all three of these quarterbacks have less total completions than Alex Smith, with Newton having 119 less completed passes than Smith over the last three seasons. Even if you factor in Smith's 8 rushing touchdowns, he ranks with Flacco, Mariota, and Taylor as the only quarterbacks out of this group who have accounted for less than 70 touchdowns over the last three seasons. So how is Alex Smith the third winningest quarterback since 2015? The answer would be in his supporting cast.
When Doug Williams stated that the current holes on the Redskins roster need to be filled, he was subconsciously indicting Alex Smith's record as a winner in the NFL. Alex Smith has had the luxury of having a Top 10 rushing offense in yards per game twice over the last three seasons in Kansas City, and he has had a Top 10 scoring defense (in points per game allowed) twice as well over that same time frame. To give perspective on that stat, Tom Brady is the only other quarterback with 40 or more starts who has had teams be Top 10 in both those areas over multiple seasons since 2015. Doug Williams is, or should be, keenly aware of this fact considering that the Redskins never gave Kirk Cousins either of those luxuries over his three years as a starter on this team. In fact, Kansas City's worst performances in these categories since 2015 (109.3 rushing ypg in 2016, and 21.2 ppg allowed in 2017) were better than any season the Redskins have in those categories over the same time frame. This means that Alex Smith has not been relied upon to be the primary provider of wins over the last three seasons in Kansas City, and he is walking into a situation that is the exact opposite. Kirk Cousins had to be the main guy the Redskins turned to in order win games over the last three seasons, especially last season where his offensive line single-handedly kept the sports medicine trade open in DC, his most talented receiving target played in only 6 games, and his defense went through countless iterations due to injury. The Redskins roster is much worse than the one Alex Smith left in Kansas City and Doug Williams knows it. Williams also knows, or should know, that the only way Alex Smith has been successful is when the supporting cast around him has been successful as well, which makes this a pivotal offseason for the tenure of all who are invested in the Redskins success.
The Redskins do not have Kareem Hunt's productivity, or Tyreek Hill's speed, or Travis Kelce's durability, or Justin Houston's sack production, or Eric Berry's coverage ability at safety. Most people in the know have stated that the Redskins current personnel does not have the talent the Chiefs had when Alex Smith was their quarterback, and it has only gotten worse for the Redskins so far in free agency. It will be up to Doug Williams to remedy the situation by putting the necessary pieces in place to make sure that Alex Smith has the necessary tools to be successful this season. It will be up to Jay Gruden to make sure that Alex Smith can use those tools to keep the Redskins win total comparable to what it was under Kirk Cousins. Alex Smith has proven that he can be a winner with the right supporting cast, and given that his best statistical season of his 13 year career came last year shows that he may be able to take on the challenges that the Redskins roster poses. But this season will be a test of front office acumen as mush as it will be about quarterback play. Doug Williams will need to acquire the right pieces, and Jay Gruden will need to position them so that Alex Smith can do the only thing he has been good at over the last five years of his career. Winning.
Alex Smith has been able to win 31 regular season games over the last three seasons. His regular season win total in that time span is only eclipsed by Cam Newton and Tom Brady. A look at his total stats over that time frame, however, should make Redskins fans wonder how he achieved that feat. Alex Smith has 46 regular season starts over the last three seasons, and when comparing his numbers to the 20 other quarterbacks with 40 or more starts (plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39 starts over the last three seasons) his numbers are fairly pedestrian if not concerning. Alex Smith has thrown for only 11,030 yards over the last three seasons which ranks him 13th out of this group. He has only thrown 61 TD's over the last three seasons. The only quarterbacks lower than Smith in that area are Joe Flacco, Marcus Mariota, and Tyrod Taylor. Looking at that stat in another light would be to compare Alex Smith's 61 TD's to those quarterbacks who have had a comparable amount of attempts. Smith has 1464 attempts over the last three seasons. The other quarterbacks who have between 1400-1499 attempts are Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Andy Dalton. Rodgers and Dalton both have less attempts (1420 and 1445) and more touchdowns (87 and 68) than Alex Smith, and Cam Newton has thrown 76 touchdowns on only 33 more attempts. What is even more staggering is that all three of these quarterbacks have less total completions than Alex Smith, with Newton having 119 less completed passes than Smith over the last three seasons. Even if you factor in Smith's 8 rushing touchdowns, he ranks with Flacco, Mariota, and Taylor as the only quarterbacks out of this group who have accounted for less than 70 touchdowns over the last three seasons. So how is Alex Smith the third winningest quarterback since 2015? The answer would be in his supporting cast.
When Doug Williams stated that the current holes on the Redskins roster need to be filled, he was subconsciously indicting Alex Smith's record as a winner in the NFL. Alex Smith has had the luxury of having a Top 10 rushing offense in yards per game twice over the last three seasons in Kansas City, and he has had a Top 10 scoring defense (in points per game allowed) twice as well over that same time frame. To give perspective on that stat, Tom Brady is the only other quarterback with 40 or more starts who has had teams be Top 10 in both those areas over multiple seasons since 2015. Doug Williams is, or should be, keenly aware of this fact considering that the Redskins never gave Kirk Cousins either of those luxuries over his three years as a starter on this team. In fact, Kansas City's worst performances in these categories since 2015 (109.3 rushing ypg in 2016, and 21.2 ppg allowed in 2017) were better than any season the Redskins have in those categories over the same time frame. This means that Alex Smith has not been relied upon to be the primary provider of wins over the last three seasons in Kansas City, and he is walking into a situation that is the exact opposite. Kirk Cousins had to be the main guy the Redskins turned to in order win games over the last three seasons, especially last season where his offensive line single-handedly kept the sports medicine trade open in DC, his most talented receiving target played in only 6 games, and his defense went through countless iterations due to injury. The Redskins roster is much worse than the one Alex Smith left in Kansas City and Doug Williams knows it. Williams also knows, or should know, that the only way Alex Smith has been successful is when the supporting cast around him has been successful as well, which makes this a pivotal offseason for the tenure of all who are invested in the Redskins success.
The Redskins do not have Kareem Hunt's productivity, or Tyreek Hill's speed, or Travis Kelce's durability, or Justin Houston's sack production, or Eric Berry's coverage ability at safety. Most people in the know have stated that the Redskins current personnel does not have the talent the Chiefs had when Alex Smith was their quarterback, and it has only gotten worse for the Redskins so far in free agency. It will be up to Doug Williams to remedy the situation by putting the necessary pieces in place to make sure that Alex Smith has the necessary tools to be successful this season. It will be up to Jay Gruden to make sure that Alex Smith can use those tools to keep the Redskins win total comparable to what it was under Kirk Cousins. Alex Smith has proven that he can be a winner with the right supporting cast, and given that his best statistical season of his 13 year career came last year shows that he may be able to take on the challenges that the Redskins roster poses. But this season will be a test of front office acumen as mush as it will be about quarterback play. Doug Williams will need to acquire the right pieces, and Jay Gruden will need to position them so that Alex Smith can do the only thing he has been good at over the last five years of his career. Winning.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Redskins vs. Vikings: Back to the Future
It has been stated that there is a different air about this team this season; a determination not seen in years past that has kept them fighting in close games where they had wilted in the past. This comes as a surprise to a fan base whose Pavlovian response in the last two minutes of a close Redskins game is to settle in to their favorite chair and calmly wait for the meteor of disappointment to make its inevitable crash into the depths of our hearts. But the attitude of this team has changed because the Redskins finally have players in leadership positions that have shown that determination in their career arcs through this league and the franchise. Think about Will Compton and Chris Baker who had to work their way off the practice squad to become central leaders of this defense. Pierre Garcon had to prove that he could emerge out of Reggie Wayne's shadow and produce on his own, and he has anchored this receiving corps for the last four years. Rob Kelley won his starting role as an undrafted free agent this season and has sparked a renaissance in the Redskins running game. DeSean Jackson has always had to overcome issues with his size to prove himself to teams that drafted Devin Thomas and Fred Davis over him in 2008 (We also let the Packers draft Jordy Nelson two picks after we took Devin Thomas). We finally hit on a big name free agent in Josh Norman, who may have been a bad ass last year but he was not so hot being drafted in the 5th round out of Coastal Carolina in 2012. We also hit on the wily veteran free agent who surprisingly has something left in the tank. Vernon Davis has been rejuvenated playing in front of his hometown crowd after being left for dead in Denver last season. And the ultimate leader of this team is a guy most everyone thought was a waste of a draft pick and would never see the light of day playing behind the franchise's golden boy, and some still believe we can go it without him next season after all he has done. All of these players fill leadership positions and have fought to get where they are and still have something to prove. This combination is why we have seen the Redskins continue to fight on both sides of the ball, regardless of what has transpired during the game. It is a delicate balance that Scot McCloughan would be wise to keep intact as much as possible, and the win over the Vikings provided some telling portends about the future of this franchise.
The Vikings game provided two pieces of information about the Redskins future. The first is that Kirk Cousins is going to be a franchise quarterback for us if we resign him. He not only led the team on four scoring drives in the second half, but his two touchdown passes showed that he has the ability to throw people open in the red zone (the Jamison Crowder TD) and that he can throw an accurate deep ball (the Vernon Davis TD). He is the leader of this team, and if we let him go we will be letting go of the invaluable intangibles that he brings to this team. Kirk Cousins needs to be back next year. Unfortunately for DeSean Jackson, this game proved that he may not be as valuable as we once thought. He obviously makes the Redskins better, but how bad are they without him? The Redskins moved the ball efficiently enough to show that Jackson's deep threat may be more of a myth than reality as long as the run game stays healthy. This is not to say that his deep ball is not helpful, but the argument was that the threat of Jackson going deep opens up the passing game for everyone else. The offense looked just fine against Minnesota without DeSean streaking down the field, so don't be surprised if the Redskins let him walk at the end of the season.
Onto the Packers on Sunday Night, where the Redskins determination will be put to the test in a thickening NFC playoff race.
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
We Know Kirk Cousins, and We Need Him to Stay
Argument 1: We Still Don't Know What Kind of Quarterback Kirk Cousins Is
The people who want to temper the talks of giving Cousins a large contract use this argument to obfuscate the true nature of what Cousins means to this team, and to use it to artificially manufacture dissent within HTTR nation about what Cousins should be paid this coming off season. These people are the people who call Cousins an empty stat collector without looking at the most important stat of all. Wins. While the detractors look to dissect Cousins's stats to point out inconsistencies within his play they neglect that, for the first time since Brad Johnson, the Redskins have a winner at quarterback who has the temperament to perform at a high level in close games and lead meaningful drives late in the game. Let's look at those drives over the past two seasons:
1) 10/4/15: Cousins leads a 15 play, 90 yard drive at the end of the 4th quarter to beat the Eagles
2) 10/11/15: Cousins goes 46 yards in :24 to set up a game tying field goal in Atlanta, and was a Ryan Grant slip away from leading the Redskins to score on their first possession in overtime
3) 10/25/15: The infamous "You Like That" game. Cousins led the biggest comeback in Redskins history, but you may have forgotten that the last touchdown was thrown to Jordan Reed that capped an 11 play, 80 yard drive in the last two minutes
4) 10/23/16: Cousins put his contract on the line as he ran in a 20 yard read option play to cap off a 9 play, 76 yard drive to take the lead.
5) 10/30/16: Cousins did all he could except kick the field goals himself to put the Redskins in position to win in a hard fought game.
These are not event counting the fact that last year he was plagued by drops against New England that may have allowed the Redskins to at least keep pace with the Patriots. He put the redskins ahead in the third quarter of their playoff game against the Packers. He led the Redskins into a position to go up by two scores against Dallas and threw an untimely interception. He led the go ahead drive after halftime against the Ravens that proved to be the difference in the game. All of this shows that Cousins has put the Redskins in a position to win more often than not, and aside from the Dallas game this season he has cleaned up the back breaking mistakes that plagued him early in his career. This is who Kirk Cousins is. He puts the team in a position to win. Whatever way Cousins's stats are used to define him as a quarterback, Cousin has compiled a majority of those stats in games where the Redskins were in the thick of competition. This leads into the second bogus argument against keeping Cousins.
Argument #2: Colt McCoy (or hypothetical replacement) could do what Cousins is doing
This statement is only bogus when looking at the long term prognostication. In the short term it is hard to argue some of the facts. McCoy has a limited arm, but can make short throws and is more athletic than he looks to keep defenses honest in read option. McCoy may not have the leadership qualities that Cousins has, and Cousins can throw deep enough to keep the safeties at bay, but let's say that McCoy could be 4-3-1 right now as a starter and we let Cousins walk at the end of the season. What then? McCoy would only be a short term solution and we would need to look for a replacement. We would probably want to bring in another QB in order to have Nate Sudfeld not be one hit away from being the starter, but the free agent class for 2017 looks bleak and hopefully McCloughan is smart enough not to draft a quarterback again in 2017. Then at the end of next season we are back at square one. I can hear people saying, "We'll have the money to resign all of our offensive weapons if we go with McCoy next year", but do they think that Jackson and Garcon will stay after this season knowing that the next two years may be in rebuilding mode? Both will be entering their 10th year as a pro, and they know that they may only have 3-4 good years left. It would not be surprising if they decide to walk from uncertainty here in Washington if Cousins leaves, so McCoy would be without two huge weapons. It is more than likely one leaves anyway if Cousins resigns to a large contract, but there is more incentive to stay if Cousins is under center.
All of this points to one conclusion. Barring a complete meltdown from Cousins over the next eight games, the best option will be to resign Cousins to a long term contract. Even though some have stated his average annual salary should be about $22.1 million, it is unlikely that McCloughan will go that high. It may be that Cousins gets a higher amount of guaranteed money over a longer term contract in order to keep the per year cap hit low enough that we can resign some of our free agents, but Cousins is the only option to continue the success the Redskins have had over the last 25 games. Cousins is a winner who has shown improvement over his time as a starter, and he has gained the respect of the players around him. At no time in the Dan Snyder era have the Redskins had a quarterback who instilled so much confidence in his play over a longer period of time, and the Redskins need to show that they are committed to the players they have developed. If not, get ready for the Brian Hoyer vs. Colt McCoy battle in training camp, and blog posts about how good DeSean Jackson looks in silver and black.
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Redskins vs. Lions: Dueling Quarterbacks and Playoff Implications
When the Redskins roll onto Ford Field on Sunday, they will be facing two major factors that have arisen due to their ascendance to the upper echelon of the NFC. The first is the Kirk Cousins situation. Cousins has played about as well as he could over the Redskins current four game win streak, but he faces a nemesis (and part time Haley Joel Osment impersonator) that he needs to vanquish with stats this week in order to keep the Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 rolling on. Since 2010 Matt Stafford is 7th in total passing yards, 8th in touchdowns, and first in speculative contracts that may break the bank. Cousins has not really out dueled any quarterback of note this season, but he more than likely will get his opportunity this Sunday against Stafford and he needs to deliver if he wants that long term deal at the end of the season.
The second factor the Redskins will face can be summed up in the immortal words of Jim Mora. Yes, that is correct. In all the euphoria of the Redskins four game win streak, it has not been said enough that the Redskins currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC. They hold a one game lead over the Rams, Eagles, Giants, and the team that will be on the other side of the ball on Sunday. This game holds early playoff implications, as a win would improve the Redskins's conference record while putting the Lions two games behind them in the Wild Card. The Redskins already have one loss that will come back to haunt them later in the season in some way (the loss to Dallas), so there should be a hint of playoff atmosphere against a team the Redskins have not beaten since 2008. It will not be an easy out as the Lions look to stay in the playoff race, but here are the key aspects of the game.
The Lions Giveth, and Lions Getteth: The Lions give just as much as they get. Their offense is dangerously efficient as they have eight less drives than the Redskins, but average almost two points more per game. Those stats are good enough for a scoring percentage of 44.6%, which is 7th best in the league. They also have the second best plays per drive (6.9) and third best yards per drive (37.4) in the league, which means that their offense can move the ball for long periods of time. The problem is that their defense allows other teams to do the same. The Lions are giving up scores on 46.6% of opponents drives, which is second worst in the league, and allowing a league worst 39.3 yards per drive. Couple this with the Lions defense only forcing four turnovers all season and giving up a league worst 73.7% completion percentage, and Kirk Cousins should be looking to have a field day. The key will be to keep Matt Jones involved in the run game and utilize short passes to beat the Lions at their own game. The Redskins are right behind the Lions in scoring percentage and yards per drive, so they should be looking to exploit a Lions defense that likes to keep teams on the field. The team that wins the offensive possession and efficiency battle will have the upper hand. If the Lions are able to score on a majority of their drives and the Redskins cannot answer, the Redskins may be forced into a pass happy offense that could get them in trouble. The Lions, though, may be more equipped to handle a high paced game with the addition of their new superstar.
Starscream Now Leads the Decepticons: When Calvin Johnson left after last season, the Lions were staring at an offense whose second leading receiver was Theo Riddick. Enter Marvin Jones, who has been born again hard after leaving AJ Green's shadow in Cincinnati to become the Starscream to Johnson's Megatron, and who is leading a deceptively formidable receiving core. Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin showed last week that the Lions have claws outside of Jones that can tear up defenses, and the Redskins should take notice. Jones and Tate can stretch the field with their speed, and Boldin is that guy who can kill defenses on possession routes and red zone plays. The Josh Norman Wheel of Fortune will be spinning out of control this week, and it will be up to Joe Barry to use Norman in a prudent manner to keep the Lions's hot receiver in check. It will also be up to Barry to continue this defensive renaissance because it will be where the Redskins win or lose this game.
Defensive Pressure: The Redskins defense has pressure on it. The offenses this week are evenly matched, and it will come down to which defense can get the other offense of the field by any means necessary. Turnovers may be at a premium for the Redskins defense as the Lions have only turned the ball over five times this year, but the Lions have also allowed 15 sacks. With the absence of Theo Riddick this week, Stafford has lost one of his safety valves that may force him into longer reads. The Redskins front seven must continue to get pressure and not force Barry to commit corners and safeties to the QB pressure cause. If that happens we may see either Tate or Jones go for some
big gains. It is also interesting to note that the Lions have more rushing attempts than the Redskins this season but average 20 yards less per game. The Lions still gave 19 carries last week to a combination of Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, and with the Redskins still allowing 124 yards per game on the ground, look for the Lions to feed the ball to their running backs to keep short down and distances. If the Redskins allow the Lions to have anything more than moderate success on the ground it could be a long day for the defense as they may find themselves on the field for long periods of time. The Redskins's front seven needs to have a big day in run stoppage and pass rush in order to take the pressure off the secondary who will have their hands full.
All of this leads to another game where the Redskins's resiliency will be tested. The Redskins reborn running game needs to be in full effect, and they should use all three backs to keep Detroit's defense on it's heels. Look for a healthy amount of screen passes from the Redskins as well in order to keep the pass rush at bay. Running backs against the Lions are averaging almost 7 receptions for 49 yards a game, so don't be surprised by a big receiving day for Thompson, Jones, and Kelley. Look for Jones to have a more rounded stat line that may be less than 100 yards rushing, but over 100 yards total offense due to receiving yards. This game will go back and forth, but the Redskins will be able to keep the ball for longer periods of time due the Lions not being able to get off the field. The Lions will come out running in order to negate the pas rush and lull the Redskins defense into a stupor. Cousins, though, will lead a potent attack that will have at least one passing touchdown of over 30 yards which will break the game open. The opportunistic defense will be able to turn the Lions over at least once, and they will win the third down plays enough to give the ball back to the offense at critical times. The Redskins prevail, and go into Cincinnati with a five game win streak.
Redskins win 30-24
big gains. It is also interesting to note that the Lions have more rushing attempts than the Redskins this season but average 20 yards less per game. The Lions still gave 19 carries last week to a combination of Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, and with the Redskins still allowing 124 yards per game on the ground, look for the Lions to feed the ball to their running backs to keep short down and distances. If the Redskins allow the Lions to have anything more than moderate success on the ground it could be a long day for the defense as they may find themselves on the field for long periods of time. The Redskins's front seven needs to have a big day in run stoppage and pass rush in order to take the pressure off the secondary who will have their hands full.
All of this leads to another game where the Redskins's resiliency will be tested. The Redskins reborn running game needs to be in full effect, and they should use all three backs to keep Detroit's defense on it's heels. Look for a healthy amount of screen passes from the Redskins as well in order to keep the pass rush at bay. Running backs against the Lions are averaging almost 7 receptions for 49 yards a game, so don't be surprised by a big receiving day for Thompson, Jones, and Kelley. Look for Jones to have a more rounded stat line that may be less than 100 yards rushing, but over 100 yards total offense due to receiving yards. This game will go back and forth, but the Redskins will be able to keep the ball for longer periods of time due the Lions not being able to get off the field. The Lions will come out running in order to negate the pas rush and lull the Redskins defense into a stupor. Cousins, though, will lead a potent attack that will have at least one passing touchdown of over 30 yards which will break the game open. The opportunistic defense will be able to turn the Lions over at least once, and they will win the third down plays enough to give the ball back to the offense at critical times. The Redskins prevail, and go into Cincinnati with a five game win streak.
Redskins win 30-24
Friday, September 23, 2016
Redskins vs. Giants: Moments for Reflection
The Redskins are now the 0-2 team with their future on the line as they go on the road to face a 2-0 Giants team with more statistical holes than some realize. Redskins fans, though, have pointed to all kinds of self fulfilling prophecies as to why it is a no-brainer that the Giants will win this game:
We have not beaten the Giants in the Meadowlands since 2009.
We have only won there four times since 2000, and 2000 was the last time we won in East Rutherford in September.
The Giants run defense will eat us alive.
Josh Norman cannot cover everybody.
Our defense cannot stop anybody.
Kirk Cousins has become Fallout Boy again.
All of this neglects the fact that the Redskins' season has come down to one or two plays that have changed the course of their games so far. And, as stated above, the Giants have some statistical holes that warrant further analysis and could be the key to a Redskins win.
Run the Ball, Run the Ball, Run the Ball: No matter how futile it may seem, or how formidable the Giants front seven may be against the run, it is time for Sean McVay to look at his opponent and say running the ball is the key to this game. You don't believe me? Explain to me how the Giants defense has yet to force a turnover, they allow only 16 points per game, 9.1 yards per completion (best in the league), 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground (5th best in the league), and yet they allow the most plays per drive (7.1) out of any team in the league, and the second highest average time of possession per drive (3:18)? The answer is running the ball. Dallas ran 30 times for 101 yards, but they were also able to keep the down and distances manageable for Dak Prescott and keep their drives going. The Saints only ran 13 times and had little offense to show for it. If we can keep 3rd downs manageable (i.e. 6 yards or less) and commit to running the ball on first and second down, Cousins can do what he does best and throw intermediate to short routes to convert first downs. Speaking of throwing the ball:
A Possession Passing Clinic: Eli Manning is only 23rd in the league in pass attempts, yet he is first in completion percentage. Eli's longest pass this season has only been 45 yards. There is no doubt he will try and test Breeland and Phillips to see if they have the mettle to defend their receivers long, but it may not be an air it out type game. If Manning can establish a short throwing game then it could open up the porous Redskins run defense even more. With the Giants losing three fumbles last week and the Redskins defense being notorious for stripping the ball, look for the Giants to use the short passing game to set up the run and control the clock.
Hunt With One Bullet at All Times: A plea to the Redskins defense to seize opportunities when they come. While Manning has thrown only one interception this year he has been sacked twice as much as Kirk Cousins on almost 20 less attempts. Four sacks may not seem like a lot, but the Giants are not passing the ball as much so the sacks stand out more. There may be opportunities for the Redskins to pressure Eli if he comes out throwing, and if the Redskins can stop the run it may provide more opportunities to sack Manning that they cannot give up. The Redskins defense also missed recovering a crucial Ezekiel Elliot fumble last week that would have ended the Cowboys' go ahead drive. This game will come down to possession, so any opportunity that the Redskins defense has to get off the field must not be squandered.
A moment to reflect on the near future. This game will come down to possession. As omnipotent as the Giants defense has been made out to be, it is not without its faults especially when it comes to offenses holding on to the ball against them. Likewise, the Redskins offense has been able to move the ball relatively well this year, but they need to capitalize on these drives with touchdowns. I see a ball control battle where each team trades off long drives with defensive stops sprinkled in. The Redskins get a touchdown off of a timely turnover, they sack Manning at least 3 times and hurry him all day, and they keep the Giants guessing by running and throwing out of a lot of three TE sets.
Redskins win 21-20
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Remove the Tags and Buy Kirk Cousins
The Kirk Cousins Free Agency Saga has come to a head over the past week. There is no future scenario too far fetched to be plausible for the Redskins's upstart quarterback who finds himself atop the free agency mountain this season with a host of suitors waiting to see what the Redskins decide to do with him between now and March 1. The public conjecture about which tag the Redskins will put on Cousins obfuscates the the ultimate decision facing Scot McCloughan as open free agency approaches. Cousins needs a contract if he is to suit up for the Burgundy and Gold in 2016 or leave for greener pastures. No Transition Tag. No Franchise Tag. For Scot McCloughan it is either keep Cousins or don't keep Cousins. The Transition Tag makes no sense and the Franchise Tag could place the Redskins in a position that would go against the public perception of what McCloughan is trying to build within the locker room.
If McCloughan has any acumen as an NFL GM he has to see that placing the Transition Tag on Kirk Cousins is worthless, reckless, and bad for negotiations. Placing the transition tag on Cousins merely gives the Redskins the right to match any offer that is given to him by another team in free agency. If Cousins decides to leave the Redskins get nothing in return. This renders the Transition Tag worthless to the Redskins's negotiating position because all it would do is reaffirm a limit for Cousins that the Redskins should already have in mind. It is reckless because, by all accounts, the Transition Tag will carry a minimum one year contract worth roughly $17 million if Cousins stays with the Redskins and cannot get a long term deal. Some say that this will give the Redskins an idea of what Cousins's actual market value is, but the Redskins should already know what the market value is. Cousins is the hottest free agent on the market, and McCloughan must know that the Rams, 49ers, and Browns all have over $40 million in cap space and crappy quarterback situations. Of course these teams would like to get Cousins for less than $17 million per year, but by placing the Transition Tag on Cousins the Redskins will artificially set the market value at a price that they have publicly hinted that they may not want to exceed. What is another $2-3 million per year to teams that are desperate for a quarterback and have a lot of cap space to burn? Placing the Transiton Tag on Cousins would be daring teams that drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round, signed Blaine Gabbert as a back up, and gave Nick Foles the keys to the franchise to outbid you for the rights to a proven passer. I don't think these three teams will be modest with their offers to Kirk Cousins, and if he gets the Transition Tag he is all but gone without any compensation for the Redskins. The Franchise Tag carries compensation if Cousins leaves, but it may leave the Redskins in a purgatory come September if no deal is reached.
Franchising Cousins makes sense on the surface. It would put a steep price on Cousins that no team is dumb enough to give up, and if they are I will be the first one to say bon voyage to Cousins as he exits Redskins Park. But let's assume that no team is willing to match the $20 million price tag and give up two first round draft picks to sign him. Advantage Redskins. The Franchise tag also gives the Redskins until July 15 to get a long term deal done. Another plus in the Redskins's favor, but if no deal gets done by July 15, however, it may undo all that the Redskins built last season. With all the talk about what Cousins's contract will be now, just imagine what the atmosphere will be like throughout next season when after every game Jay Gruden will field questions about how Kirk's performance impacts his future contract. Kirk can say he will be about playing games if he is Franchised, but that is like dating a porn star and saying that you don't really think about sex all that much. Everyone will perceive that it is in the back of your mind and constantly ask you about your situation. Also, how does it look for the Redskins if they have intimated all off season that they do not want to break the bank for Cousins and turn around and pay him $20 million. And what will happen next season when Cousins has no contract again and they also need to resign Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed? The Redskins would not exactly be able to skimp on the contracts of Reed and Cousins at that point, especially if they have comparable seasons to 2015. There is the possibility of Franchising Cousins and then trading him, but that move would highlight the underlying dangers of not signing Cousins to a contract.
If Cousins is Franchised and traded, or Transition Tagged and allowed to walk, or God forbid allowed to walk outright, the perception will be that the Redskins do not want to pay up. What message does that send to other quarterbacks around the league? That they need to at least make the NFC Championship Game by the end of their contract to get paid, and even then the mantra may be that McCloughan will not over pay one position? That could deter free agents from wanting to sign here, and it may make Washington less attractive for rookies in the future. And what about the players who have come out in support of Cousins getting paid? It may not be in Garcon and Baker's best interest to advocate for a big contract for Cousins considering their contracts will be up next year, but they did it anyways. These guys are leaders on the team who expressed their loyalty to Cousins, and if McCloughan's ideal is to foster a unified locker room with a sense of continuity within the roster he would do well to listen to his players and pay the guy they have pegged as their leader.
For McCloughan, this could all be formality. He should already have a decision in his mind because he knows that he has no bargaining position in this matter. Cousins and his camp hold all the cards, and they probably will not budge from a highly guaranteed 4-5 year contract because they know he can get that elsewhere. So for McCloughan it is simple. Remove the tags from your mind and buy on Kirk Cousins.
Saturday, January 9, 2016
Redskins vs. Packers: Cousins Could Be Meeting His Destiny
The question surrounding Cousins this season, especially now when it looks like he will become a franchise quarterback after this season, is what type of quarterback he will turn out to be? It may have sounded crazy at the beginning of the season, but Cousins could be staring his destiny in the eyes on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers into FedEx Field on Sunday. Cousins and Rodgers' careers have had similar parallels that make one think that Cousins could have a career that mirrors that of Aaron Rodgers. Both were backups for the beginning of their careers. Both had skeptics and haters abound when they were named the unquestioned starter in their fourth season as a pro. Both have a sneaky good athletic skill set. Both made their first playoff start against a former Super Bowl Champion. Rodgers's first playoff game came in his second season as a starter against Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals, a game he lost in overtime. Rodgers now finds himself in the role of master as he faces a young apprentice making his first career playoff start. Cousins led the Redskins to a better record and led them on more game winning drives than Aaron Rodgers did in his first season in Green Bay, and Cousins has the benefit of playing in front of his home crowd on Sunday that could propel Cousins' career in the same direction as Aaron Rodgers. For Cousins to fulfill this destiny he will need help in all phases of the game, and it may come down to the playmakers on defense that determine whether or not we will hear "You Like That!" in Charlotte or Tempe next weekend. Here are the keys to the game:
Experience vs. Hotness: The quarterback play of this game will be the main focus, and the big narrative will be the experience of Rodgers versus the hot streak of Cousins. The Redskins should be wary of Rodgers coming out like it is 2010 and whipping the ball up and down the field because that is what he has done in the past. While this season has not been his best, Rodgers is still averaging 11.0 yards per completion compared to a woeful 6.7 yards per attempt. That means that Rodgers may not be throwing the ball long on every play, but he is connecting on the long passes so the depleted Redskins secondary needs to keep up its magic. Cousins, however, is boasting a highly improved 7.7 yards per attempt and riding an inconceivable hot streak into the playoffs. The Redskins need to make sure they continue to be hot by protecting Cousins from the vaunted pass rush of the Packers, and by utilizing the short to intermediate passing game with Reed, Crowder, and Garcon to gain yards after the catch. The value of the experience of Rodgers and the good fortune of Cousins in this game will be at the mercy of the eleven men on the other side of the ball.
Under Pressure: The defenses will determine which quarterbacking skill set will win out. The Packers Defense is boasting an impressive 58.3% completion percentage, which is fourth best in the league, and they are top ten in the league in sacks. The two things that Cousins has been able to do to create this hot streak is be the most accurate passer in the league this season while being the fifth least sacked quarterback. If Green Bay can close the pocket and force Cousins into quick reads against a highly skilled secondary, it could be a lot of three and outs for Sean McVay's squad. The Redskins defense needs to make sure that they are putting pressure on Rodgers who has been sacked 47 times this year, but who may have key pieces of his offensive line returning this weekend. It is time for Ryan Kerrigan to shine in a big game, and for Preston Smith to show his worth to the league on a national stage. The Redskins must also do what has been their strong suit so far this season in creating turnovers. For as much as Rodgers has been sacked, the Packers have only turned the ball over 17 times this season. The Redskins are no stranger to creating turnovers against stingy ball security teams (the Redskins faced 10 of the top 16 teams in giveaways this season while being top 10 in the league in takeaways), and they will need at least one turnover to win this game. Pressure and turnovers will counterbalance Rodgers experience, but the Redskins defense needs to be wary of Rodgers's experience out pacing the deficiencies they have suffered due to injury.
It's A Game of Positioning: This game will be like a well played game of chess, and field position will count for a lot. The one area where the Redskins have a sizeable advantage is yards per drive and yards per play. The Redskins have averaged almost four more yards per drive than the Packers (31.5 to 27.8) and they are half a yard better in yards per play (5.6 to 5.1). This means that special teams and the running game will play a major part in the field position battle. Tress Way needs to have a big day in pinning the Packers deep, and Dustin Hopkins will need to create touchbacks and hit clutch field goals. The Redskins will also need to take advantage of a Packers defense that is giving up almost 120 yards per game and 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground. Alfred Morris needs to continue to be solid and run effectively enough so that play action will slow the pass rush and maybe give us big plays through the air that can flip the field. If Morris can average above 3.5 yards per carry with 70-80 yards rushing the Packers will be in trouble. A significant deficit in starting field position will not kill the Redskins, but it will greatly help a Packers offense that is devoid of major playmakers.
The Redskins seem to have a penchant for playing in highly poetic playoff games. Remember the consequences that came out of the Redskins' last playoff matchup with Seattle three years ago. Now, they find themselves with a different quarterback in the same position: Trying to prove that he is an elite quarterback in this league. The difference in this game is that Cousins will need to vanquish one of the elite, even if the team around Rodgers has been marginalized by injury for most of the season. It will be a close game, and I don't see Cousins going for monster stats like he has in the past four games. Redskins fans should expect mediocre stats, but a legendary leadership performance from Cousins with him leading some gritty second half drives to either put the Redskins ahead or answer an offensive score by the Packers. (Prediction: Cousins gets at least one rushing TD). The defense will play well enough to keep it close, and watch for the edge rushers to force a big sack/fumble out of Rodgers. It will be close, but HTTR nation should put a hold on airline tickets for next weekend.
Redskins Win: 24-20
Saturday, December 26, 2015
Redskins vs. Eagles 2: The Showcase Showdown
Kirk.......Cousins! Come on Down! You're the next contestant on The Price is Right for a Quarterback Who is Improving Through A Season to the Point of Leading the League in Some Statistical Categories, But Not the Categories That Drive High Contract Prices, But Gets You In the Position for the Playoffs That You Were Not Expecting So You Have to Pay Him or Else He'll Go Somewhere Else That Will Pay Him That Much Money And Psychologically You Will Not Be Able to Deal With That Kind Of Rejection. That's not too long of a title for a game show, right? I'll also lay the rhetoric on thick by asking the question; Doesn't this weekend's game between the Eagles and the Redskins seem like one of those bad endings to The Price is Right? Two people at the end of the show who beat out the old lady at the wheel who everyone was pulling for (the Dallas Cowboys) all just to get a shot at 2 jet skis or a trip to the Grand Canyon. It does. All except for the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing for a contract. If you believe the canon being spewed out by the powers that be, Cousins will be back in DC regardless of the outcome of this season. The question is price. The Redskins have the first bid in this Showcase Showdown, and if they beat the Eagles on Saturday Night you can believe that Cousins will fetch north of $20 Million per year solely on the fact that another team (Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis) will pay that much for his services. But if the Redskins balk at the jet skies because it is highly regulated on the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay, it leaves room for the Eagles to swoop in and rain on Kirk Cousins' $20 Million Dollar Parade. Here is what the Redskins need to do to ensure that they secure their first playoff berth in three years:
Nail Jell-O to the Wall: The Redskins running attack has gone through peaks and valleys this season. Their run game has come under specific fire after the Rams game in Week 2 for not being dynamic enough, but in all of The Redskins' last four wins they have been able to amass at least 99 yards of rushing or more. The first war on record where the casualties from combat outnumbered the casualties from disease and famine was the Russo-Japanese War of the early 20th Century. Why? Because the combat code of the Japanese (the Bushido) called for Japanese soldiers to have honor and die in combat so they would keep charging the Russians until they all died or they won. The Redskins would do well to heed this "stick to your solution at all costs" mentality as the running game can open up the passing game. Keeping the down and distance manageable and continually coming at your opponent with the same tactics regardless of outcome or success will lead to a degradation of the Eagles' will. The Redskins need to run the football, regardless of their yards per carry average. Alfred Morris and Matt Jones will provide enough support so that all other parts of the team will be able to function. The one area where the Redskins outstrip the Eagles statistically is in time of possession. Feed the ball to Morris and Jones on first and second down and good things will happen. The Redskins will possess the ball and keep the Eagles in a constant stat of panic. This will only work if the Defense does its' job.
Limit Big Plays: Listen to these statistical anomalies. 1) The Redskins' Defense is giving up a higher yards per completion rate than the Eagles, but they are giving up a lower yards per game rate than the Eagles. 2) The Eagles' passing yards per attempt is 0.6 yards less than the Redskins 3) The Redskins are giving up more yards per attempt than yards per game in the running attack than the Eagles. Translation? The Redskins give up big plays. Look no further than last week where the Bills hit on two plays of 40 yards or more in the second half to make a game of what was otherwise a rout conducted by both the Redskins' offense and defense. Also, the Eagles relied on two plays of 39 yards or more to keep pace with the Redskins in their first meeting of the season. If the Redskins expect to win they will need to limit the pays of 40 yards or more, and have their defense pester Sam Bradford into turning the ball over a whopping 15.2%, which is good for 5th highest TO% in the league. Otherwise, the Eagles and Redskins seem evenly matched and it will come down to a matter of wills.
Win and You're In: The narrative all throughout the preseason was how the Redskins need to rebuild, with very few people touting the talent that the Redskins compiled in the offseason (all of it is good, but read the last paragraph). Now we find ourselves bidding first in a Showcase Showdown for the NFC East Title, in a venue and a timeslot that has not been hospitable to us in the past. The last time the Redskins won at Lincoln Financial Field was with Robert Griffin in 2012, and we do not need to rehash the Redskins' impotence once the sun goes down. But four months ago we were saying that six wins would be a successful season. The Redskins have eclipsed that mark and now are one win away from making it to the playoffs. It will not be easy against the Eagles, and I see a back and forth game for the first half. But the Redskins' offense will prove too much to deal with, and the Redskins pass rush will eventually wear down Sam Bradford to the point of him making some costly mistakes in the second half. Get ready HTTR nation. We will not have to wait another decade to see a home playoff game.
Redskins Win: 30-21
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Redskins vs. Bills: A Game of Unexpected Significance
Beware the Read Option: The Redskins will face an all too familiar foe this Sunday in LeSean McCoy, but they have never faced him with a quarterbacking counterpart as versatile as Tyrod Taylor. Buffalo boasts the third best rushing yards per game (141.8) and per rushing attempt (4.7) in the league so far, while the Redskins' defense is giving up the fourth worst yards per attempt in the league (4.6). To make matters worse, the Redskins have traditionally done a poor job of defending the read option. That was on display last week where 55 of Chicago's 87 rushing yards came in the second half when the Bears started to run a more read option style running attack, and no one is really worried that Jay Cutler is going to burn you for big yardage on the ground. But McCoy and Taylor can, so guys like Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy need to be disciplined enough to not over pursue and keep the running attack contained, and guys like Will Compton and Perry Riley need to be good about wrapping up and not getting out of position. Otherwise we may see a big day for McCoy and Taylor on the ground. Taylor will also play a big role in the passing game.
Precision Vs. Efficiency in the Passing Game: This game will highlight two quarterbacks who have very quietly carved out a niche for themselves in the discussion of good quarterbacking play this season. Neither of these quarterbacks would be dubbed "elite", and neither will overwhelm you with the big stats like total yards and touchdowns. What they have done is quietly moved themselves into the top 10 in statistical categories that pits precision against efficiency this weekend at FedEx Field.
Kirk Cousins is precise. He has been the most accurate quarterback this season putting up a league leading completion percentage of 69.2%, and he is in the top 10 in passes completed and passes completed per game. Detractors will point to the fact that he is throwing shorter routes, but he is making good decisions and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers more often than naught. Cousins has been able to win because of his precision, but Taylor has been able to win because he is efficient. Taylor has the fifth highest quarterback rating this season at 100.9, which is better than both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. He is also fifth in yards per attempt and sixth in yards per completion, and doing this without being in the top 10 in total attempts or yards. This means that Taylor is throwing the ball long, completing the ball long, and not making many mental errors in his throwing game. This will be a test of who can make the least amount of mistakes, while at the same time being the best in their respective statistical categories. Kirk Cousins will need to be true to his completion percentage in order to keep drives alive, and Taylor will need to be completing long passes to force the Redskins out of their methodical offensive pace.
Win And You're In: Here we are again. The Redskins find themselves in a must win game to keep pace with a suddenly resurgent Eagles and Giants on their heels. The Redskins faced a similar opportunity two weeks ago on Monday Night against the Cowboys, when they had a chance to pull away from the rest of the NFC East. Instead we got a classic Redskins boner performance in prime time. Now they face a very dangerous Bills team that could turn this game into a track meet if the Redskins decide not to show up. The Redskins will give up big yards on the ground, but they will not allow the Bills to get into the end zone and force more field goals than touchdowns. The Redskins will win by doing the opposite, and scoring touchdowns for every Buffalo field goal. The Redskins will win, which will set up a huge match against the Eagles next week.
Redskins win: 28-23
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Redskins vs. Giants Part Deux: The World is Changing
The Giants lead the division, but their last two losses came on the last play of the game where they allowed the Saints and Patriots to drive down the field in the waning moments of the fourth quarter. The Giants may be losing that moxie that saved them so many times in close situations, and Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are not getting any younger. But the Redskins have at least some confidence in their quarterback for this season and possibly for the future. If you believe the reports that came out this week, The Redskins have enough confidence in Gruden that he will return next year. All of this makes this game on Sunday more than just a battle for first place this year. It could give the Redskins organization the shot of confidence they need to fill the looming vacuum that is being created by the hubris, incompetence, and aging of the other teams in the NFC East. If the Redskins would like to change their fortunes this weekend here is what they need to do.
If you can't get up for a game like this.......: All poetic gravitas aside, the Redskins are playing for a tie for first place in the NFC East. That should be enough motivation for the Redskins to come out firing on all cylinders, but if they need more motivation they should look at the records of the remaining opponents for all the NFC East teams:
Giants remaining opponents: 34-27
Eagles remaining opponents: 32-18
Cowboys remaining opponents: 21-20 (play redskins twice)
Redskins remaining opponents: 22-31 (play cowboys twice)
The Redskins have the easiest schedule on paper for the remainder of the season, but remember that the Redskins also have three more road games to play. A win would put them in the drivers seat, but a loss would almost force them to win out in order to try and make the playoffs.
Leave the Run; Take the Pass: It would behoove the Redskins to focus on beating the Giants defense with the pass first. The Giants have given up the most total completions, total passing yards, and yards per game so far this season. They are also tied with the Falcons for fewest number of sacks this season with 12. This plays into the Redskins passing style that relies on high completion percentage (Cousins is third in the league) and not taking sacks because of getting the ball out quickly. Look for a lot of Jordan Reed to exploit the middle of the field, and quick hitters to Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to alleviate pressure. Also, look for Crowder to get some looks with wide receiver screens to make the Giants spread out. If the Redskins can get the passing game going it may open up the running lanes enough to have some success. This is all predicated on the Redskins doing one thing.
Clock Control: The Redskins need to control the clock. The Giants' offensive strength is efficiency. The Giants score on 42.7% of their drives which is good for third in the league behind New England and Arizona, and only 0.7% ahead of Carolina who showed what can happen to the Redskins if they allow a team to score on every possession. The Giants are also only turning the ball over on 9.1% of their drives compared to the Redskins who turn the ball over on 17.6% of their drives. What's worse is that the Giants defense forces a turnover on 19.3% of their drives which is second best in the league behind Carolina. What all of this means is that the Giants score a lot, they don't turn the ball over very much, and if you are holding onto the ball too long they are taking it back so they can score again. The Redskins need to be able to keep pace with the Giants by matching their efficiency through clock control and limiting turnovers. Short passes will be the name of the game on Sunday, and taking advantage of favorable running situations in order to keep the ball away from the Giants' offense.
A Test of Character: Finally, forgetting all the stats, this game will be about whether or not this team has really had a character change. The talk this week has been about how good the Redskins have been at home this season and how well they have bounced back from losses, but certain individuals must answer the call to prove these notions are not just talking points for TV analysts. Kirk Cousins needs to prove that he can win a game with legitimate playoff implications when all eyes are on him. The defense needs to prove that it can come up with big stops against a team that terrorized them earlier this season, and who will look to exploit their deficiencies in the run game. Finally, the coaching staff needs to prove that they can come up with a solid game plan in a meaningful game. Just like Cousins, this will be Jay Gruden's first game as a head coach where there are legitimate playoff implications. How this team responds to the opening call, and how they adjust to the flow of the game will show how good of a head coach Jay Gruden really is.
I have a bad feeling about this game. The Giants' offense has been clicking the past three weeks, while the Redskins' defense continues to fall into despair. No Chris Culliver means that Odell Beckham should be going all Keyshawn on Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin. But I will go with the title of this article and say the world is changing. Cousins has a solid, but not flashy, game and the defense is able to come up with one big play that keeps us in the game. It will be close either way, but I'll believe the Redskins can do it.
Redskins win 24-20
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