Redskins vs. Packers: Cousins Could Be Meeting His Destiny

Redskins fans should be excited.  They should be excited to be in the playoffs.  They should be excited that they did not have to wait another 15 years to see another home playoff game.  But what should excite them the most is that for the first time in 25 years they are being led into the playoff by a young and promising quarterback.  Kirk Cousins has established himself as one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league this season, and Redskins fans should be excited at the prospect of Cousins' career paralleling that of his counterpart on Sunday. 

The question surrounding Cousins this season, especially now when it looks like he will become a franchise quarterback after this season, is what type of quarterback he will turn out to be?  It may have sounded crazy at the beginning of the season, but Cousins could be staring his destiny in the eyes on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers into FedEx Field on Sunday.  Cousins and Rodgers' careers have had similar parallels that make one think that Cousins could have a career that mirrors that of Aaron Rodgers.  Both were backups for the beginning of their careers.  Both had skeptics and haters abound when they were named the unquestioned starter in their fourth season as a pro.  Both have a sneaky good athletic skill set.  Both made their first playoff start against a former Super Bowl Champion.  Rodgers's first playoff game came in his second season as a starter against Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals, a game he lost in overtime.  Rodgers now finds himself in the role of master as he faces a young apprentice making his first career playoff start.  Cousins led the Redskins to a better record and led them on more game winning drives than Aaron Rodgers did in his first season in Green Bay, and Cousins has the benefit of playing in front of his home crowd on Sunday that could propel Cousins' career in the same direction as Aaron Rodgers.  For Cousins to fulfill this destiny he will need help in all phases of the game, and it may come down to the playmakers on defense that determine whether or not we will hear "You Like That!" in Charlotte or Tempe next weekend.  Here are the keys to the game:

Experience vs. Hotness: The quarterback play of this game will be the main focus, and the big narrative will be the experience of Rodgers versus the hot streak of Cousins.  The Redskins should be wary of Rodgers coming out like it is 2010 and whipping the ball up and down the field because that is what he has done in the past.  While this season has not been his best, Rodgers is still averaging 11.0 yards per completion compared to a woeful 6.7 yards per attempt. That means that Rodgers may not be throwing the ball long on every play, but he is connecting on the long passes so the depleted Redskins secondary needs to keep up its magic.  Cousins, however, is boasting a highly improved 7.7 yards per attempt and riding an inconceivable hot streak into the playoffs.  The Redskins need to make sure they continue to be hot by protecting Cousins from the vaunted pass rush of the Packers, and by utilizing the short to intermediate passing game with Reed, Crowder, and Garcon to gain yards after the catch.  The value of the experience of Rodgers and the good fortune of Cousins in this game will be at the mercy of the eleven men on the other side of the ball.

Under Pressure: The defenses will determine which quarterbacking skill set will win out.  The Packers Defense is boasting an impressive 58.3% completion percentage, which is fourth best in the league, and they are top ten in the league in sacks.  The two things that Cousins has been able to do to create this hot streak is be the most accurate passer in the league this season while being the fifth least sacked quarterback.  If Green Bay can close the pocket and force Cousins into quick reads against a highly skilled secondary, it could be a lot of three and outs for Sean McVay's squad.  The Redskins defense needs to make sure that they are putting pressure on Rodgers who has been sacked 47 times this year, but who may have key pieces of his offensive line returning this weekend.  It is time for Ryan Kerrigan to shine in a big game, and for Preston Smith to show his worth to the league on a national stage.  The Redskins must also do what has been their strong suit so far this season in creating turnovers.  For as much as Rodgers has been sacked, the Packers have only turned the ball over 17 times this season.  The Redskins are no stranger to creating turnovers against stingy ball security teams (the Redskins faced 10 of the top 16 teams in giveaways this season while being top 10 in the league in takeaways), and they will need at least one turnover to win this game.  Pressure and turnovers will counterbalance Rodgers experience, but the Redskins defense needs to be wary of Rodgers's experience out pacing the deficiencies they have suffered due to injury.

It's A Game of Positioning: This game will be like a well played game of chess, and field position will count for a lot.  The one area where the Redskins have a sizeable advantage is yards per drive and yards per play.  The Redskins have averaged almost four more yards per drive than the Packers (31.5 to 27.8) and they are half a yard better in yards per play (5.6 to 5.1). This means that special teams and the running game will play a major part in the field position battle.  Tress Way needs to have a big day in pinning the Packers deep, and Dustin Hopkins will need to create touchbacks and hit clutch field goals.  The Redskins will also need to take advantage of a Packers defense that is giving up almost 120 yards per game and 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground.  Alfred Morris needs to continue to be solid and run effectively enough so that play action will slow the pass rush and maybe give us big plays through the air that can flip the field.  If Morris can average above 3.5 yards per carry with 70-80 yards rushing the Packers will be in trouble.  A significant deficit in starting field position will not kill the Redskins, but it will greatly help a Packers offense that is devoid of major playmakers. 

The Redskins seem to have a penchant for playing in highly poetic playoff games.  Remember the consequences that came out of the Redskins' last playoff matchup with Seattle three years ago. Now, they find themselves with a different quarterback in the same position:  Trying to prove that he is an elite quarterback in this league.  The difference in this game is that Cousins will need to vanquish one of the elite, even if the team around Rodgers has been marginalized by injury for most of the season.  It will be a close game, and I don't see Cousins going for monster stats like he has in the past four games.  Redskins fans should expect mediocre stats, but a legendary leadership performance from Cousins with him leading some gritty second half drives to either put the Redskins ahead or answer an offensive score by the Packers.  (Prediction:  Cousins gets at least one rushing TD).  The defense will play well enough to keep it close, and watch for the edge rushers to force a big sack/fumble out of Rodgers.  It will be close, but HTTR nation should put a hold on airline tickets for next weekend.

Redskins Win: 24-20

Redskins vs. Eagles 2: The Showcase Showdown

 

Kirk.......Cousins! Come on Down! You're the next contestant on The Price is Right for a Quarterback Who is Improving Through A Season to the Point of Leading the League in Some Statistical Categories, But Not the Categories That Drive High Contract Prices, But Gets You In the Position for the Playoffs That You Were Not Expecting So You Have to Pay Him or Else He'll Go Somewhere Else That Will Pay Him That Much Money And Psychologically You Will Not Be Able to Deal With That Kind Of Rejection.  That's not too long of a title for a game show, right? I'll also lay the rhetoric on thick by asking the question; Doesn't this weekend's game between the Eagles and the Redskins seem like one of those bad endings to The Price is Right?  Two people at the end of the show who beat out the old lady at the wheel who everyone was pulling for (the Dallas Cowboys) all just to get a shot at 2 jet skis or a trip to the Grand Canyon. It does.  All except for the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing for a contract.  If you believe the canon being spewed out by the powers that be, Cousins will be back in DC regardless of the outcome of this season.  The question is price.  The Redskins have the first bid in this Showcase Showdown, and if they beat the Eagles on Saturday Night you can believe that Cousins will fetch north of $20 Million per year solely on the fact that another team (Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis) will pay that much for his services.  But if the Redskins balk at the jet skies because it is highly regulated on the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay, it leaves room for the Eagles to swoop in and rain on Kirk Cousins' $20 Million Dollar Parade.  Here is what the Redskins need to do to ensure that they secure their first playoff berth in three years:

Nail Jell-O to the Wall: The Redskins running attack has gone through peaks and valleys this season.  Their run game has come under specific fire after the Rams game in Week 2 for not being dynamic enough, but in all of The Redskins' last four wins they have been able to amass at least 99 yards of rushing or more.  The first war on record where the casualties from combat outnumbered the casualties from disease and famine was the Russo-Japanese War of the early 20th Century.  Why?   Because the combat code of the Japanese (the Bushido) called for Japanese soldiers to have honor and die in combat so they would keep charging the Russians until they all died or they won. The Redskins would do well to heed this "stick to your solution at all costs" mentality as the running game can open up the passing game.  Keeping the down and distance manageable and continually coming at your opponent with the same tactics regardless of outcome or success will lead to a degradation of the Eagles' will.  The Redskins need to run the football, regardless of their yards per carry average.  Alfred Morris and Matt Jones will provide enough  support so that all other parts of the team will be able to function.  The one area where the Redskins outstrip the Eagles statistically is in time of possession.  Feed the ball to Morris and Jones on first and second down and good things will happen.  The Redskins will possess the ball and keep the Eagles in a constant stat of panic. This will only work if the Defense does its' job.

Limit Big Plays: Listen to these statistical anomalies.  1) The Redskins' Defense is giving up a higher yards per completion rate than the Eagles, but they are giving up a lower yards per game rate than the Eagles.  2)  The Eagles' passing yards per attempt is 0.6 yards less than the Redskins 3)  The Redskins are giving up more yards per attempt than yards per game in the running attack than the Eagles. Translation?  The Redskins give up big plays.  Look no further than last week where the Bills hit on two plays of 40 yards or more in the second half to make a game of what was otherwise a rout conducted by both the Redskins' offense and defense.  Also, the Eagles relied on two plays of 39 yards or more to keep pace with the Redskins in their first meeting of the season.  If the Redskins expect to win they will need to limit the pays of 40 yards or more, and have their defense pester Sam Bradford into turning the ball over  a whopping 15.2%, which is good for 5th highest TO% in the league.  Otherwise, the Eagles and Redskins seem evenly matched and it will come down to a matter of wills.

Win and You're In:  The narrative all throughout the preseason was how the Redskins need to rebuild, with very few people touting the talent that the Redskins compiled in the offseason (all of it is good, but read the last paragraph).  Now we find ourselves bidding first in a Showcase Showdown for the NFC East Title, in a venue and a timeslot that has not been hospitable to us in the past.  The last time the Redskins won at Lincoln Financial Field was with Robert Griffin in 2012, and we do not need to rehash the Redskins' impotence once the sun goes down.  But four months ago we were saying that six wins would be a successful season.  The Redskins have eclipsed that mark and now are one win away from making it to the playoffs.  It will not be easy against the Eagles, and I see a back and forth game for the first half.  But the Redskins' offense will prove too much to deal with, and the Redskins pass rush will eventually wear down Sam Bradford to the point of him making some costly mistakes in the second half.  Get ready HTTR nation.  We will not have to wait another decade to see a home playoff game.

Redskins Win: 30-21

Redskins vs Patriots: "You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss"

Words of wisdom from Omar Little that the Redskins would be wise to heed tomorrow as they take the field in Foxboro for the first time in eight years; and we all remember what happened that day.  Not much has changed has changed since that fateful day. The Patriots still do what they do best: win.  The Redskins still do what they do best: play as inconsistently as possible to always keep a sense of hope within the fan base that will ultimately be crushed at the end of the season.  The pundits believe in these roles so much that they write headlines like these on their websites about this game.  And why shouldn't they?  The Patriots have trailed in only three games this season for a grand total of 36:58 of game time.  That means that the Patriots have been trailing for only 8% of their 2015 season, and the Patriots' home win/loss numbers with Tom Brady starting are even more staggering.  The last time Tom Brady lost at home was December 16, 2013 against the 49ers.  In fact, since Tom Brady became the starter in 2001 he has only lost 13 games at Gillette Stadium, and he has only lost three home game since 2010.  So everyone treating this game as an automatic win for the Patriots should rest easy.  If the Redskins plan on not making this game a laugher like the last one they must be better than they have been all season, and if they want to do what only three teams have done in Foxboro in the last five years they must not miss in any facet of the game.  It is a long shot, but here is how they could possibly shock the world.

The Guessing Game:  Question 1:  Who is the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL this season?  Obviously it is Kirk Cous......wait, what?  You're not hallucinating.  Kirk Cousins has only been sacked 8 times this season which is the second least amount of sacks in the NFL behind the Jets.  The Patriots' defense has 26 sacks this season which is good for second best in the league, so the Redskins will have their hands full protecting Cousins this week.  Question 2: Which team has allowed more passing yards this season?  That's right.  The Patriots have allowed 142 more passing yards this season than the Redskins, probably because they have been bludgeoning teams so bad that they have to throw the ball.  Question 3: Who is giving up more rushing yards per game this season?  Of course it is the Redskins.  Washington is giving up the third most rushing yards per game this season, which means that we may see a more run heavy attack from New England to start this game.  With no real threat being posed by the Redskins on paper, it may not be out of the question for the Pats to come out running to see if they can control the one part of the game where the Redskins have the advantage.

Time Is  The Only Thing On The Redskins' Side:  The Redskins' average offensive drive is lasting 25 seconds longer than the Patriots.  If the Redskins expect to be anywhere close to winning they must have that type of ball control though short passing and manageable down and keeping manageable down and distance.  Look for Cousins to be true to his league lowest yards per completion (9.3) and third lowest yards per attempt (6.5) numbers by throwing short passes to control the clock.  Short passes may also lull the Patriots into a false sense of security and allow the Redskins to go over the top.  If the Redskins cannot connect on a pass play longer than 30 yards we may be in trouble. And for all the criticism about the Redskins running woes, as long as they are getting positive yardage it is a good thing.  The Redskins must be going forward at all times and keep the distance for every down in the single digits while controlling the clock.  As long as the game is close, the Redskins should feed the ball to Morris and Jones at least 20 times combined considering that the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per attempt and have faced the third lowest number of rushing attempts so far this season due to their dominance. 

Patriots Dominance:  The Patriots are scoring on 55.6% of their drives this season and only turning the ball over on 3.7% of their drives which is best in the league for both stats.  They have the second best yards per play average in the league (6.3) and the third best yards per drive (35.9).  Oh, and they are averaging a league best 35.6 points per game.  All of this means that the Redskins will be going up against the best, and they need to play a boring, methodical, and perfect game to win.

This will be a battle to see if the Redskins can execute the short game and grind the Patriots down.  New England is scoring every other time they touch the ball, so the Redskins need to control the time of possession through short throws and hard fought runs.  Expect to see a lot of Pierre Garcon as he is the best receiver the Redskins have in tough short yardage situations, and watch for Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder to get a lot of looks in the short medium range.  Defensively they need to not miss chances.  They will not stop the Patriots offense, but when they get their chance to stop them on third down, get an interception, recover a fumble, get a sack, they must execute.  No fancy stats for the defense because if we go by stats the Redskins defense has no chance.  This game will be won on the words of Omar Little, and I'm going with a blind homer pick for this game.  Cousins is able to march the offense methodically down the field and the defense comes up with one big turnover that is the difference in the game.

Redskins win 28-27

Redskins vs. Jets: Cousins Needs to Prove His Worth

Kirk Cousins needs to prove to the Redskins that he can win big games against winning teams on the road.  The past two weeks he has shown that he can engineer late drive that put the Redskins in a position to win the game, but he also showed his penchant for throwing soul crushing interceptions at critical points in the game that left HTTR nation staring at their TV's for the next hour in catatonic disbelief.  Kirk Cousins also needs to prove to the Jets that maybe he was worth more than they thought when they inquired about a trade earlier this season after they realized that their quarterback was just as bad at debt collection as he was throwing fade routes.  It will not be an easy task this week as Cousins goes up against a stingy Jets defense that is only giving up 280 yards and a league best 13.8 points per game so far this season.  The Jets offense, however, is not over imposing as a team and they benefit from a defense that puts them in advantageous positions.  If the Redskins can execute on both sides of the ball they stand a very good chance at putting themselves in coin flip game that may come down to another Kirk Cousins last minute drive.  It all starts with field position.

You know where it ends.  It depends on where you start:  When looking at the offensive stats between these two teams, it seems as if they would be evenly matched.  They have nearly identical yards per passing attempt (6.6 WAS/6.4 NY), yards per completion (9.7/10.5), net yards per passing attempt (6.2 for both), yards per rushing attempt (4.1/4.2), and they are both scoring on 33.3% of their drives.  So what is the explanation for the Jets averaging almost 5 points more per game than the Redskins when the Jets average less time of possession per drive, less plays per drive, and less yards per drive than the Redskins?  The answer is field position.  The Jets average starting field position is their own 33.2 yard line, which is second best in the league and almost ten yards more than the Redskins.  This number is bolstered by the Jets' defense forcing 13 turnovers so far this season, so if the Redskins plan on staying close they need to win the field position battle by limiting turnovers and getting a big day from Tress Way and the punt coverage team.  They need to give Ryan Fitzpatrick a long field to work with in order to test his ability to sustain longer drives, and put him in passing situations to allow the Redskins to do something that not many of the Jets' previous opponents have done.

Get to Ryan Fitzpatrick:  It may not have occurred to anyone, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has only been sacked twice this season. Twice in four games.  It helps that the Jets have faced the two teams with the lowest sack totals in the league (Indianapolis 6, Miami 1), but the Browns and Eagles have similar sack totals to the Redskins.  If the Redskins plan on controlling field position and limiting the offensive success of the Jets they need to put Ryan Fitzpatrick under assault.  The Redskins front seven needs to get pressure on Fitzpatrick so as to not allow Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to have big days against a depleted Redskins secondary.  If the Redskins defense cannot get two or more sacks and hurry Fitzpatrick's throws we may see some long sustained drives from the Jets because...

Chis Ivory Has Been Reborn: Ivory was an afterthought in New Orleans, but his move to the north has been nothing short of miraculous.  Ivory is averaging 104 yards per game, which is tied for best in the league, and he is averaging 5.0 yards per attempt.  This is not good for a Redskins defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per attempt this season, and who could be spread out if Fitzpatrick is allowed to stretch the field with Brandon Marshall.  Containing Chris Ivory will be contingent upon whether or not the Redskins can hurry Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it will be easier on Fitzpatrick if Ivory can go for his average yards per attempt every time he touches the ball.  The Giants showed that the Redskins can be vulnerable to a committed running game, and the Redskins need to be ready for a heavy does of Chris Ivory.  The Redskins need to respond in kind, but with a different focus with their running backs.

Trust the Short Game:  The Redskins offense needs to trust in their ability to get small chunks of yards that put them in manageable down and distances.  The Jets' defense is only giving up 4.5 yards per pass, 3.8 yards per run, a 16.3% scoring average, and a 24.5% turnover average.  This means they are not giving up big plays, not allowing the other team to score often, and turning them over at a high clip.  The Redskins need to understand that they will be in a lot of third downs, so they need to rely on short runs and screens to make those third downs manageable.  Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder need to have big days in the short passing game, and with Matt Jones's health being a questions mark they need Alfred Morris to fall forward and get positive yardage.  Finally, they need to hit on their home run balls.  Rashad Ross showed that he can be a valuable deep threat last week drawing a crucial pas interference call.  The Redskins will need to take their shots, and Ross should see at least two deep balls thrown his way to keep the short game viable.

At best this will be a coin flip game if the Redskins are able to execute.  If they turn the ball over, muff punts, and allow the Jets to have favorable field position it could turn into another day like the last one they had in the Meadowlands.  But if Cousins can show that he may be worth at least what the Redskins gave up for him, he could once again prove that the Redskins may have made the right choice in turning down the Jets' offer.  I still think that the Jets' defense will prove too much for Sean McVay's scheme, Ivory will give the Redskins front seven fits, and the Redskins will commit an untimely turnover that swings the balance of the game late.

24-13 Redskins Lose

Redskins vs. Falcons: Are the Redskins or Falcons For Real?

Will the Redskins be able to methodically move the ball in order to score and keep Matt Ryan off the field?  Or, will Matt Ryan be able to rain down 20-30 yard passes against a depleted Redskins secondary in order to win the game?  Does any of this even matter?  It does matter when you consider that two of the three touchdowns the Redskins gave up last week were on passes of 30 yards or more, and now they have to play against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  It matters when the Falcons give up less running yards per offensive possession than the Redskins' previous foe; The Philadelphia Eagles.  It all matters when the game on paper looks like an air raid conducted with impunity by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones that will crush any hopes of this season being anything but salvageable for the Redskins.  It is easy to point to a depleted Redskins secondary to state the keys of the game, but that does not mean that it is the wrong answer.  The Redskins will need to find an answer for the likes of Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and their old pal Leonard Hankerson in order to limit the amount of big plays the Falcons are able to convert against their defense.  The Falcons will need to get the Redskins off of the field on third down, and clog up the short to mid range passing lanes in order to fluster Kirk Cousins into one of his patented 3rd quarter, back breaking, interceptions.  The subtleties of this game are far deeper, and the Redskins would be wise to learn from these outlines in order to be successful on Sunday.   

Scoring when we get inside the Atlanta 30 yard line: Any scoring will do.  The Redskins are only scoring on 32% of their drives as opposed to Falcons scoring on 45% of their drives.  If the Redskins expect to win against a team that outscores them 34-19 on average this season they need to get points whenever they cross the Falcons 30 yard line.  Touchdowns are preferable, but field goals will serve their purpose.  The Redskins just need to show that they can score on every possession and put the pressure on the Falcons to do the same.  Take a lesson from the Giants game on Thursday Night, and see how field goals can be integral to success.  Dustin Hopkins needs be perfect in order for the Redskins to win the game.  One missed kick (field goal or extra point) will cost them the game against a team that has the ability to score quickly against a depleted secondary.  This scoring will do no good, however, if the Redskins cannot continue their time of possession dominance and limit the Falcons chances at scoring.

Get Yards the Hard Way: Running the ball will be the Redskins best friend.  Atlanta's defense has faced the second least amount of rushing attempts in the league this season (77), and they are giving up the eighth most yards per rushing attempt (4.4).  The Redskins are averaging the third best yards per attempt average in the league (4.4), and they are averaging the most rushing yards per game (139.5).  They also showed versatility within the running game last week with the emergence of Chris Thompson.  Thompson gives their running game and added dynamic of speed and catching ability out of the backfield, and if the Falcons are unable to shut down one of these running backs it could be a field day for the Redskins running attack.  They should run the ball at least 30 times in order to control the clock, put themselves in manageable down and distances, and to test a Falcons defense that has not been run on heavily over the first three games.  As much as I love Alfred Morris because he is on my fantasy team, I see Matt Jones getting a bigger workload this week in order to show the Falcons some breakaway speed between the tackles. Chris Thompson should also see between 5-10 carries in order to set up screen passes on third down.  Expect to see one Thompson screen pass go for over 20 yards in this game.  Running the ball will limit the Falcons's possessions, but the Redskins cannot hold onto the ball forever.  The defense will need to step up in big situations.

The Most Dangerous Receivers Do Not Wear #11: Julio Jones will get his. There should be no analysis on what to do about him because you know he is going to get the yardage if a pass can be thrown to him.  The Redskins need to make sure that they can put as many people on Jones as possible by stopping Leonard Hankerson and Devonta Freeman in the passing game.  Hankerson has benefitted from Jones taking the pressure off of him and allowing him to go for 14.2 yards per reception so far this season, which is a better average than Julio Jones. Freeman has just as many receptions as Hankerson, and the Falcons will look to keep the linebackers and safeties looking for the short pass in order to open up deep routes for Julio Jones. The Redskins need to find a way to marginalize these two receiving threats in order to put more of their energy in stopping Julio Jones.  If Hankerson and Freeman go for more than 120 combined receiving yards it shows that the Redskins are unable to stop the Falcons secondary passing attack, and that they will be relying on Kirk Cousins to once again engineer a magnificent performance. 

Need Another Big Day From Cousins and Linebackers: Who has given up the fourth most passing yards in the league so far this year?  That's right. It's the Falcons.  And those yards have come in 175 attempts with a 65% completion rate and averaging 305 yards per game.  Those numbers are not outrageous, but it shows that this team can be thrown on.  Look for Cousins to have another efficient game if we want to win, and look for an increased role for Rashad Ross to burn downfield in order to open up the intermediate passing lanes.  The linebackers also need a big day getting to Matt Ryan and containing Devonta Freeman.  Murphy and Kerrigan need to flash some lateral speed in the flat, while splicing in some rushes that force Matt Ryan to move his feet in the pocket.  Preston Smith should see an increased workload in order to provide more speed on the outside, and don't be surprised if you hear Jackson Jeffcoat's name called more than once in celebration of a big play.  Anything less than 300 yards passing and no sacks spells doom for the Redskins.

The recipe for success against the Falcons is that they need to be challenged on the ground so we can hold the ball, and then hope that Julio Jones shows mercy.  Cousins also needs to show that he can string together two good performances in a row and win on the road.  The Redskins have not met a matchup as hard as this one, but neither have the Falcons.  Ultimately, I see The Falcons home field advantage being too strong for the Redskins to overcome this week in Atlanta.

24-21 Redskins lose.

Redskins vs. Eagles: Redskins Must Not Revive Another Nemesis's Season

Do you know what nemesis means? One of the Redskins' nemeses got theirs last Thursday night as the Redskins began to fill their obligatory annual quota of bad losses in big situations that revive the other team's season.  The Redskins gave a reprieve to another floundering Giants team last Thursday night and breathed life into their otherwise pathetic season.  We will see if that win means anything to the Giants, but after a week of high hopes and nickname contests for the Redskins running back tandem HTTR nation was brought back down to Earth after the loss to the Giants.  Now all the cynicism and insecurities have been running rampant for the last 10 days as another nemesis comes to town looking for a little pick me up for their season.  The Eagles offense finally came through last week, and they look to a Redskins team in limbo and a soggy FedEx Field to resuscitate their chances at an NFC East title.  The Redskins were too happy to oblige the Giants when they were in dire need of a win, and the Eagles present a style of play that could wreak havoc on an injury ridden Redskins team. The weather will also produce challenges of its own, but the Redskins must trust in their system and know that the Eagles' flaws are gaping and could be exploited to great effect.  The keys to this game are as follows:

Let Sam Bradford Throw The Ball:  Just do not let the Eagles running attack get going.  The Eagles win last week was predicated on Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles running for 123 yards last week and taking the pressure off of Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing offense that has been statistically abysmal this season.  They are tied for last in the league in yards per completion (9.3) and longest completion (32 yards), and they are next to last in yards per attempt (5.8).  Couple that with an offense that has the worst average time per drive (1:48), the lowest average yards per drive (21.4), and scores on only 22.5% of their offensive drives (second worst percentage in the league), and you see that the Eagles rushing attack was their savior last week by lengthening drives and allowing Bradford's short passing game to be effective.  Bradford is not throwing the ball far, but he can be effective if given short down and distances and a depleted secondary to throw against.  He will get the latter on Sunday as the Redskins will probably be missing their top two cornerbacks in Chris Culliver and DeAngelo Hall.  What the Redskins need to do is win the yardage battle on first down, contain the Eagles running attack, and support a depleted secondary by blitzing selectively.  If the Redskins become too blitz happy it may give Bradford easy pre-snap reads and the ability to catch them overcommitting against the run.  The Redskins defense should drop back to cover the medium to short passing routes and not leave their young corners on an island.  They will also need a big push from the defensive line to control the running game.  If Matthews and Sproles are able to do what the Giants did and put the Redskins defense in short third downs it may be a long day for the Redskins defense.

Limit the Eagles' Opportunities:  Sproles returned a punt last week, and the Eagles were also able to get a touchdown off of a Brandon Marshall fumble that gave them a short field to work with.  This allowed them to go up big on the Jets.  Special teams returns and turnovers are something that the Redskins may have a tough time avoiding, and it has nothing to do with Cousins's penchant for throwing interceptions. The Eagles Defense is forcing a turnover in one out of every five offensive possessions they face this season, which is third best in the league. They have only turned two of those turnovers into points, but in a game that could be a monsoon it does not bode well for the Redskins who have an interception prone quarterback, a rookie running back with a history of ball control issues, and a special teams unit that is just itching to give up a game breaking return.  Both offense and special teams need to be sharp if they are to limit big plays and execute the final key to success.

Ball Control/Cousins Bounce Back:  Cousins had a bad game last week, but he has shown better resiliency this season in coming back from mistakes within the game.  He will need to show that he can come back from game to game because the Redskins Offense faces another stout run defense.  The Eagles run defense is allowing the lowest yards per attempt in the league (3.1), and with the Redskins' offensive line possibly being without Morgan Moses, Kory Lichtensteiger, and Josh LeRibeus it could be another long day for the Redskins running attack.  Cousins will need to prove that he can throw the ball effectively and efficiently to take pressure off of the running game.  Jordan Reed is an easy person to mark as needing to have a big game, but also look for Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson to turn short passes into big gains with their legs that could keep the Eagles defense honest if they begin to crowd the line of scrimmage.  Jones and Morris should be given the ball early to give the Redskins favorable down and distance, but they also need to make sure they get positive yardage to give Cousins a chance to extend drives.  Chip K
elly's offense runs at a quick pace, and if the Redskins Defense is out there for too long they become more susceptible to big plays.  The Redskins need to run the ball over 25 times for at least 80 yards to be successful.  Anything less means they are not controlling the clock, Cousins is having to throw more, and the Redskins will not come out on top. 

This could be Thursday Night all over again.  Philly has the ability to stop the Redskins running attack and force Kirk Cousins into doing what he does best; throwing untimely interceptions. They also have the up-tempo offense needed to put the Redskins in a hole that will force them to throw if they get down by a fair margin.  The Eagles, though, have shown the ability to have crappy drives that give the ball back on downs.  The Redskins need to force Bradford to make decisions after the snap by dropping into coverage, and they need to control the ball with positive runs, accurate passes, and a little speed here and there from the likes of Thompson and Crowder.  This is going to be an ugly one, but all the Redskins need is a win and they will get it.

20-17 Redskins Win.

Redskins vs. Giants: Into the Heart of Darkness

 When the Redskins walk into The Meadowlands on Thursday they will be entering a place that has haunted them for years.  Since 2000 the Redskins are 4-11 against the Giants in East Rutherford and they have been outscored 291-187 in those fifteen games.  The Redskins will also literally walk into darkness as they play at night, where they are 5-14 since 2000 in either Monday or Thursday Night games.  But alas Jay Gruden has espoused the mantra of a New Day for this Redskins team. The St. Louis game gave the fan base cause to buy into this notion, and the win against the Rams also forced the pundits of the world to come up with a better argument than condescending laughter to the notion that the Redskins can contend in the NFC East.  With the way the Giants have been playing it should not be outright lunacy to think that the Redskins can go on the road with their new found sense of grandeur and come out with a win that could cripple one of their challengers to the aforementioned division title.  But if 2007 taught us anything it is that the Eli Manning led Giants respond well to adversity, and they find themselves in the same position as in 2007; 0-2 and facing the Redskins.  If Washington expects to win in the Meadowlands for the first time since 2011 they will need to show that the Rams game was not a fluke, and the focus of this game plan should be on one man.

Kirk Cousins Needs to Drive the Offense:  This may sound crazy based on the way the Redskins have been able to run the ball the past two weeks, but the game plan should be focused on giving Cousins opportunities to move the offense.  Matt Jones and Alfred Morris are the best running tandem in the league, but it may surprise you that the Giants run defense has only given up 136 yards rushing and allows only 3 yards per rushing attempt.  The Giants know this and may take the advice of almost every talking head and load the box in order to try and stop the Redskins running attack.  If this is the case, and one can almost assume the Giants will at least try this, it means that Cousins will have to take control of this offense in order to keep drives moving on a defense that has given up 702 passing yards so far this season.  Those yards were given up to pass happy teams, but the Redskins may need to show that they can get a little pass happy in order to take pressure off of the run game.  Cousins already sports the fourth best completion percentage in the league (75.9%) and half of his completions have gone for first downs.  This means that he is asked to throw the ball in pressure situations in order to keep drives moving and he delivers in those situations more often than not.  This game will challenge Cousins to be more than a situational passer by seeing if he can make mid to long distance throws in order move the ball, and Sean McVay must give Cousins a game plan that allows him to throw the ball downfield.  Cousins will need to throw for over 250 yards if the Redskins expect to win in a game with less than 2 Giants turnovers.  Which brings us to the defense.

Secondary Needs to be on High Alert: The Redskins number one ranked defense may have benefitted from the fact that they did not have to face a top tier receiver the past two weeks.  They will Thursday when they face Odell Beckham, and he is the difference in an otherwise pedestrian passing game.  Eli Manning has a lower completion percentage, yards per attempt average, passing attempts, and passing yards than Ryan Tannehill so far this season so one begins to ask why should this week be any different than the past two for the Redskins secondary.  The answer is Odell Beckham.  He opened up last week and showed he can be a threat to score or get big chunks of yardage on every play.  The secondary must find a way to limit his big play ability, and keep his average under 15 yards per reception.  Aside from his 67 yard touchdown last week, Beckham averaged 11 yards per reception so anything over 15 yards per reception means Beckham is going for big catches that will lead the Giants to victory.  The secondary also needs to be on high alert for runs to the outside, and play action off of those runs.  The Rams were able to get the most yards on the ground from jet sweeps and runs away from the middle, and their touchdown was scored on a fake jet sweep that caught the corner looking in the backfield with no safety help.  You can bet the Giants will try to set the edges and test how physical the corners really are, and don't think they haven't noticed that the Redskins defense really has not been tested this year in the run game.  The Redskins have the lowest amount of rushing attempts against them in the league yet they give up the seventh highest yards per attempt.  Expect Culliver, Hall, and Breeland to be busy in both run and pass defense as the Giants try to favor the outside runs early to set up the Redskins cornerbacks for big plays later on. 

Unstoppable Force Meets an Immovable Object: The one area where the Giants stand out statistically is in the efficiency of their offensive drives, and it may be the key to this game.  The Giants have scored on 45% of their drives and average about 6.6 plays per drive.  The Redskins defense, however, has allowed teams to score on only 19.6% of their drives with an average of 4.9 plays per drive.  Something has to give.  Either the Redskins stymie The Giants' offense and allow their offense to have a chance to operate their brutal running assault with impunity, or the Giants field goal themselves into a position to hit Beckham on a long touchdown late in the game that forces the Redskins to abandon their run heavy approach.  Limiting turnovers and big plays will be the key to winning this nerdy stat game. 

This has the makings of a game that has an outcome that no one saw coming.  The Redskins' running game could be shut down to the point where Kirk Cousins needs to make plays on a regular basis and have a respectable NFL stat line.  The Giants could come out running the ball to test the Redskins defense in order to open up things for Odell Beckham and keep the Redskins defense on the field longer than they have been all season.  All of these will be attempted, but Morris and Jones do their best vintage Joker impression and show the Giants who the new beasts of the east are:


Score: 27-20 Redskins win.

Redskins vs. Rams: Whose Afraid of the St. Louis Rams?

This is a fair question to ask.  What makes the St. Louis Rams so special that the Redskins need to put on brown pants to hide their fear from the viewing public?  Could it be because the Rams are 6-2 against the Redskins since 2005?  Could it be their mauling defense that has five first round picks in their front seven?  Is it because the Redskins feel some sense of buyers remorse for the RG3 trade? Whatever the reason may be, if you absorb the main stream sports media you would think that the '85 Bears were coming to FedEx Field on Sunday.  While the Rams have a good defense they are not without their flaws, but so are the Redskins, so it will take some semblance of game plan and coaching that the Jay Gruden led Redskins have yet to show over the past 17 games.  While the media seems caught up with sack numbers (the Rams' defensive lineman combined for 22.5 sacks last season and combined for another 5 against the Seahawks in Week 1) and cute monikers (The
Rams are the most physical/nasty/competitive 6-10 team you will ever meet) the Redskins should be looking at their personnel and saying, "F these guys.  We are just as tough as they are and here's how we are going to ball control our way to winning this game."

Big Receivers = Big Game: Pierre Garcon and/or Jordan Reed (if healthy) need to be the focal points of a ball control offensive plan that relies on possession receiving first.  The Rams lost five of seven games last season when they allowed a receiver who was over 6'0" tall and weighed more than 200 pounds to go over 80 yards receiving.  Garcon and Reed both fit this bill, and their possession skills need to be in full effect if the Redskins expect to win.  If Garcon or Reed can go for eighty plus yards with a 7-9 yard per catch average it means the Redskins are taking longer drives that are looking to keep the St. Louis offense off the field.  It is not out of the question either.  The Rams' intimidating sack numbers from last year look less intimidating when you consider that Miami had a lower Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (6.2) than the Rams (6.7) last season.  A breakdown of those averages shows that the Rams had only one more sack than the Ndamunkong Suh-less Dolphins and still gave up over 300 yards more in passing on only three more passing attempts than Miami last season.  Within that difference in attempts the Rams also allowed 30 more completions that the Dolphins, so the Rams showed they can be susceptible to a possession style passing game but it will only be effective if two things occur.

Positive Running/Long Passing: Alfred Morris silenced all the Matt Jones trumpets last week by proving he is one of the best running backs in the NFL at getting positive yardage in tight spaces.  He is not the type of back who will hit the hole and take it 60 yards to the house, but he has the agility and vision to go for four or more on every single carry.  The Redskins need to take advantage of that by putting themselves in 2nd or 3rd and less than 7 situations more often than not so they can exploit those plays for long pass gambles.  No Desean Jackson means that it is time for Jamison Crowder, Rashad Ross, or Ryan Grant to prove they are good for at least one big pass play per game from the slot.  My money is on Ross who looks to have the best speed of the three, and deserves a legitimate shot at being the short term replacement for Jackson as the resident burner for the Redskins' receiving corps.  Either way, the Redskins will win this game if they can complete a pass play of 40 yards or more at least once and if they can manage the down and distance on each drive by running Morris 20 times or more.  Whatever the case may be, it will be for naught if the Redskins' defense cannot wake up from the...........

Nightmare of Tight End Seem Routes, Running Back Screens, and Special Team Returns:  The two leading receivers for the Rams last week were tight end Jared Cook and running back Benjamin Cunningham.  Those two positions have given the Redskins defense fits in the past, and if they want to win on Sunday they need to limit the production of at least one of them. Quick.  Name the leading wide receiver in receiving yardage from last week.  I know you fantasy degenerates picked up Tavon Austin this week, but it was actually Stedman Bailey who led the Rams' wide receivers in receiving yards.  We need to limit Cook and Cunningham in the passing game and force the Rams receivers to beat us.  And since Tavon Austin already returned a punt for a touchdown last week, you can believe he is licking his chops against the Redskins.  No TD's allowed by the special teams will mean a win for them, even if a return is stopped at the one yard line it means the Special Teams did not give up a touchdown.  What would be even better is for the special teams to actually learn from their mistakes and not give up big returns.  If the Redskins defense cannot contain the non wide receivers in the passing game, or Austin has a big day on punt returns, it may be hard to vanquish the Rams.

So who is afraid of the St. Louis Rams?  The Redskins shouldn't be.  The Rams should not be taken lightly, but statistically their defense is not any better than Miami.  If Washington can get a possession game going with a combination of Garcon, Reed, and Morris while getting one or two big plays and containing the Rams' running back and tight ends, we may be sitting at 1-1 going into New York next week.

Redskins vs. Browns: Open TE Tryouts Start on Monday

With the loss of Niles Paul for the season the Redskins find themselves having to dig deeper on the depth charts than they had expected at the TE position.  Chase Dixon now finds himself as the next man up with Jordan Reed's hamstring soreness, Logan Paulsen's toe status, and the injury sustained by Niles Paul last night.  Paul's injury hits even harder considering that he had worked his way to being the starting TE, and was heralded as one of the emotional leaders of the team.  One only needs to watch the last episode of Hard Knocks to see Niles Paul's energy.  He is seen getting in the face of Texans players and coming to the aid of others when things started getting out of hand.  Paul had also become a solid locker room presence as stated by John Keim, whose report states that players were openly emotional about the injury to Niles Paul.  A big loss for the Redskins, and if you're skeptical that Jordan Reed can finish an entire season without getting injured and you live in the grater Washington DC area, please send your resume to Sean McVay at:

21300 Redskin Park Drive
Ashburn, VA 20147

Please inquire about the Tight End position.  Other than that it was a fairly positive night for the Redskins, starting with the three most important people on the roster right now.

Robert Griffin:  The stats are unassuming, but Griffin looked good for the first preseason game.  He made good throws to Ryan Grant, especially on his fist throw on 3rd and 5 when he wne through his progressions and hit Grant on the crossing route.  His only negatives were a poor 3rd down pass on a comeback route on the sidelines, an a bad 2nd down fade pass to Garcon at the end of the first quarter.  The next play he took a hit and overthrew Garcon again, but that was because Shawn Lauvao missed the delayed blitz coming from his side.  All in all a decent showing from Griffin, but we'll have to see if he can improve upon this showing next week against the Lions.

Kirk Cousins:  What can you say?  The guy knows how to run this offense against inferior competition.  Granted he played most of the game against backups, but he looked damn good doing it.  The one thing that stood out with Cousins was his checking of the defense before the snap.  Numerous times he called out blitzes from the shotgun to the offensive line, which is something that Griffin did not do as often.  He was accurate with his throws, and he even seemed comfortable in the designed roll outs that were called.  We'll see if McCoy ca do the same next week, but all in all a great performance from Kirk Cousins.

Colt McCoy:  It is tough to glean much from McCoy's start against third stringers, but what I was most impressed with was his feet.  He had a nice 10+ yard scramble at the end of the third quarter, and he was able to extend a play with his feet and dump down to Tre Williams.  He may not look as shifty against starters, but he looked good yesterday in his ability to run and move in the pocket.

Other top performers were Chris Thompson's blitz pickup and burst of speed, which was on display all night; The defensive front seven's ability to get in the backfield, even if they failed to get a lot of negative plays they disrupted the run game enough to make it a non factor for the Browns; Trent Murphy looking like he took a step forward in his pass rushing technique, he was inches away from getting a sack at least twice and on the Browns first touchdown he beat the tackle by slapping the OT's hands down and going to the inside to cause McCown to leave the pocket; Preston Smith's quickness and speed when closing in on the runner/quarterback and his ability to create havoc at the line of scrimmage; and the offensive line's pass protection (especially Morgan Moses), which will get tested more heavily as the season goes on but they looked effective last night.

The negatives were minor, but the secondary still has communication problems in releasing receivers when no safety help is there and not adjusting to the Browns's quick passes at the beginning of the game; If Arie Kuandjio is in the game next week you can bet that the Redskins will not run a screen pass because he woefully missed his blocking assignments on both screen passes that caused them to go nowhere (literally); and finally, one play that stood out to me and it is the one in the picture above.  The Redskins called a run right on Fourth and 1 and Brandon Scherff gets pushed one yard into the backfield causing Morris to jump back and find the edge.  Luckily Morgan Moses sealed off the edge long enough, and Morris found the hole and turned it into a huge gain, but for a guy who was touted as a "mauler" in the run game Scherff needs to get more physical on short yardage.  You would think that with all the speculation about Scherff moving positions he would come out with a chip on his shoulder, and what better way to display your dominance than on a Fourth and 1.  It is his first preseason game, and Scherff was not horrible, but that play stuck with me. 

Next week Detroit, and hopefully we can keep this positive mojo going.