Kirk Cousins Has No Option But to Stay in DC

The Kirk Cousins Saga will come to its glorious zenith once the Redskins finish their season against the Giants this Sunday and he is allowed to begin free agent negotiations.  In the DC area, the conjecture surrounding the fate of Kirk Cousins over the past three seasons has only been eclipsed by the theories surrounding Game of Thrones and The Last Jedi, and this season the maelstrom of rumors has been centered on what Kirk has said over the past three months regarding his status with the Redskins organization.  But this approach only looks at what Kirk has said to the detriment of looking at what kind of person Kirk is.  A great Spots Illustrated article by Greg Bishop gives a good glimpse at Cousins's personality and it is very telling.  He is someone who face timed into a QB meeting from the delivery room of a hospital while his son was being born.  He has his day planned out in 15 minute increments.  He has a brain coach.  Cousins is someone who is overly regimented and draws his energy from the process he uses to get himself into peak performance.  So why would Cousins mess that process up by going somewhere else?  And, more importantly, would those situations be any better suited to his process or psyche than staying in DC?  Lets look at all possible suitors by breaking them into categories and showing why the alternatives leave Cousins with no option but to stay with the Redskins.

Category 1: The Ghosts of RGIII (Denver, Cleveland, Buffalo)

These teams seem promising for Cousins, but all of them would more than likely carry an incumbent QB into the 2018 season that may have Cousins needing 10 hours of sleep a night in his hyperbaric 

chamber to keep his beta levels in order (read the SI article).  Does Cousins want the Ghost of RGIII looking over his shoulder again?  For all of Denver's upsides they will probably hold on to Paxton Lynch for this year considering he has a $4 Million dead cap hit, and they may want to keep an insurance policy.  Cleveland will probably hold on to Deshone Kizer for the same reason, and because he is only finishing his rookie season.  Tyrod Taylor carries an extra $10 Million in dead cap money until 2021 if he is not on the roster after the 2018 season so it can be assumed that the Bills would want to keep him for next year and beyond.  Cousins seems to be a calculating individual who has played his way out of situations like this, and it is not worth it for him to go to a place like this even if Cleveland can offer a huge contract.

Category 2: Uncharted Waters (Cincinnati, Arizona, NY Jets, Miami)

Cousins's brain coach will need to be working overtime if he chooses to leave DC for one of these destinations.  All of these teams carry uncertainties that Cousins and his camp must be weighing against the known evil that lies in Ashburn, Virginia.  Arizona was one of the obvious alternatives for Cousins in the beginning of this season, but with Bruce Arians almost certainly on his way out can Cousins afford to take a gamble on an coach to be named later and hope that they gel?  This is ditto for Cincinnati's situation where Marvin Lewis looks to be ending his 15 year reign as head coach.  Miami would have to take a big step and release Ryan Tannehill, which is a maybe at best, and Cousins would also be stepping onto a Dolphins team with a second year head coach that is taking on water at the moment.  The Jets are very intriguing as far as salary cap space goes, but with Jermaine Kearse, an aging Matt Forte, and soon-to-be-free-agent Austin Serferian-Jenkins as the Jets's main skill players on offense it seems to be a lateral move from DC at best.  Even with that cap space to possibly sign some free agents, remember that the Jets drafted Christian Hackenberg to be the future.  So these teams have many uncertainties surrounding their situations that makes the known situation of the Redskins better than the unknown of these teams

Category 3: Replacing the Legend (NY Giants, New Orleans, Pittsburgh)

These teams present Kirk with the question of legacy.  It is plausible that the Giants could move on from Eli, Brees is a UFA at the end of this season, and there are rumors that Roethlisberger may retire after this season, especially if he wins his third Super Bowl this year.  It would be intriguing for Kirk to go to a ready made winner, but would Kirk be able to handle that kind of pressure?  Cousins will need to really amend his process to accommodate for the media lashing that will come when he falls short of being "the guy who came to replace the legend".  And, more importantly, does Cousins want to carry that moniker with him in the latter end of his career?  Even if he is able to win a Super Bowl in New York or Pittsburgh (which would be the standard he will be held to), the narrative will always be that it was not as many as Manning or Roethlisberger.  Brees only won one, but Cousins could never endear himself to that fan base the way Brees has over his career.  He will always play the step dad role in these cities.  Couple this with Odell Beckham's prima donna attitude, Pittsburgh's horrendous cap space situation, and Le'Veon Bell's own franchise tag free agency hangover, and a ready made winner may not be better than trying to build here in DC.  If New Orleans came calling, though, it may be hard to turn down, but it would still carry the baggage of replacing a legend.

Category 4: High Expectations (Jacksonville, Minnesota)

It maybe the first time ever that the Jacksonville Jaguars are associated with the term "high expectations", but if Kirk were to go there he would need to get the left side of his brain in full gear to tone down his inner monologue. The current AFC South Champions would expect, with no major free agents to sign other than Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson and a returning high octane defense, that Kirk Cousins would come in and improve them right away based on his performance over the past three years.  If Cousins were to fall short of wherever the Jags finish this season it would spell instant disaster for Cousins based on the price tag he would demand.  It would be the same situation with the Vikings who have the defense and the skill players to get the job done next season, and all three of their current quarterbacks are UFA's at the end of this season.  Minnesota would be intriguing for Kirk because they have the cap space and a ready made team for him to succeed, but if that success does not come right away Kirk would be an instant scapegoat.  Would Kirk be able to perform with the expectation that he needs to win his division or else there will be disappointment?  And, could Kirk handle being called a bust after one season due to his big contract and hypothetical mediocre record?  With all of these teams considered there is only one option.

All of these teams' current situations show that Cousins has no option but to stay in DC.  The Redskins have the means to give him a large long-term contract, and if not they could still franchise him and limit his options once again.  The Redskins, though, do not have a possible replacement that Cousins would need to dispossess.  The Redskins coaching staff is relatively stable, and most of his offensive weapons will be back next year.  Expectations in DC will be high no matter what, but they will not come with special caveats that will put a higher premium on winning in the short term for relative strangers who would not fully appreciate what Cousins brings.  Kirk Cousins draws his energy from his self imposed daily routine, and moving to another team may require a drastic change to that routine that would require time that Cousins may not have in a new setting given the limitations stated above.  For Kirk Cousins to remain successful with the least amount of stress put on him and his process, his only option is to stay with the Washington Redskins.

Remove the Tags and Buy Kirk Cousins

The Kirk Cousins Free Agency Saga has come to a head over the past week.  There is no future scenario too far fetched to be plausible for the Redskins's upstart quarterback who finds himself atop the free agency mountain this season with a host of suitors waiting to see what the Redskins decide to do with him between now and March 1.  The public conjecture about which tag the Redskins will put on Cousins obfuscates the the ultimate decision facing Scot McCloughan as open free agency approaches.  Cousins needs a contract if he is to suit up for the Burgundy and Gold in 2016 or leave for greener pastures. No Transition Tag.  No Franchise Tag.  For Scot McCloughan it is either keep Cousins or don't keep Cousins.  The Transition Tag makes no sense and the Franchise Tag could place the Redskins in a position that would go against the public perception of what McCloughan is trying to build within the locker room.

If McCloughan has any acumen as an NFL GM he has to see that placing the Transition Tag on Kirk Cousins is worthless, reckless, and bad for negotiations.  Placing the transition tag on Cousins merely gives the Redskins the right to match any offer that is given to him by another team in free agency.  If Cousins decides to leave the Redskins get nothing in return.  This renders the Transition Tag worthless to the Redskins's negotiating position because all it would do is reaffirm a limit for Cousins that the Redskins should already have in mind.  It is reckless because, by all accounts, the Transition Tag will carry a minimum one year contract worth roughly $17 million if Cousins stays with the Redskins and cannot get a long term deal.  Some say that this will give the Redskins an idea of what Cousins's actual market value is, but the Redskins should already know what the market value is.  Cousins is the hottest free agent on the market, and McCloughan must know that the Rams, 49ers, and Browns all have over $40 million in cap space and crappy quarterback situations.  Of course these teams would like to get Cousins for less than $17 million per year, but by placing the Transition Tag on Cousins the Redskins will artificially set the market value at a price that they have publicly hinted that they may not want to exceed.  What is another $2-3 million per year to teams that are desperate for a quarterback and have a lot of cap space to burn?  Placing the Transiton Tag on Cousins would be daring teams that drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round, signed Blaine Gabbert as a back up, and gave Nick Foles the keys to the franchise to outbid you for the rights to a proven passer.  I don't think these three teams will be modest with their offers to Kirk Cousins, and if he gets the Transition Tag he is all but gone without any compensation for the Redskins. The Franchise Tag carries compensation if Cousins leaves, but it may leave the Redskins in a purgatory come September if no deal is reached.

Franchising Cousins makes sense on the surface.  It would put a steep price on Cousins that no team is dumb enough to give up, and if they are I will be the first one to say bon voyage to Cousins as he exits Redskins Park.  But let's assume that no team is willing to match the $20 million price tag and give up two first round draft picks to sign him.  Advantage Redskins.  The Franchise tag also gives the Redskins until July 15 to get a long term deal done.  Another plus in the Redskins's favor, but if no deal gets done by July 15, however, it may undo all that the Redskins built last season.  With all the talk about what Cousins's contract will be now, just imagine what the atmosphere will be like throughout next season when after every game Jay Gruden will field questions about how Kirk's performance impacts his future contract.  Kirk can say he will be about playing games if he is Franchised, but that is like dating a porn star and saying that you don't really think about sex all that much.  Everyone will perceive that it is in the back of your mind and constantly ask you about your situation.  Also, how does it look for the Redskins if they have intimated all off season that they do not want to break the bank for Cousins and turn around and pay him $20 million.  And what will happen next season when Cousins has no contract again and they also need to resign Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed?  The Redskins would not exactly be able to skimp on the contracts of Reed and Cousins at that point, especially if they have comparable seasons to 2015.  There is the possibility of Franchising Cousins and then trading him, but that move would highlight the underlying dangers of not signing Cousins to a contract.

If Cousins is Franchised and traded, or Transition Tagged and allowed to walk, or God forbid allowed to walk outright, the perception will be that the Redskins do not want to pay up.  What message does that send to other quarterbacks around the league?  That they need to at least make the NFC Championship Game by the end of their contract to get paid, and even then the mantra may be that McCloughan will not over pay one position?  That could deter free agents from wanting to sign here, and it may make Washington less attractive for rookies in the future.  And what about the players who have come out in support of Cousins getting paid?  It may not be in Garcon and Baker's best interest to advocate for a big contract for Cousins considering their contracts will be up next year, but they did it anyways.  These guys are leaders on the team who expressed their loyalty to Cousins, and if McCloughan's ideal is to foster a unified locker room with a sense of continuity within the roster he would do well to listen to his players and pay the guy they have pegged as their leader.  

For McCloughan, this could all be formality.  He should already have a decision in his mind because he knows that he has no bargaining position in this matter.  Cousins and his camp hold all the cards, and they probably will not budge from a highly guaranteed 4-5 year contract because they know he can get that elsewhere.  So for McCloughan it is simple.  Remove the tags from your mind and buy on Kirk Cousins.   

Keep KC in DC

One way to become popular is to leech off the popularity of others.  So I thought I would rebrand a pipe dream of a slogan into something that could actually happen.  Keep KC in DC.  The Redskins need to start talking with Kirk Cousins about a contract extension based on his performance over the last three games, his evolution as a passer and leader over the course of this season, and the fact that the future alternatives for the Redskins are ambiguous at best.  Here is a list of reasons why the Redskins need to Keep KC in DC.

Who Would We Replace Him With?
Here is the list of winners who will be free agents with Cousins this offseason. The problem for the Redskins is Cousins has played well enough to out pace all of these guys on that list. If the Redskins let Cousins test the open market he will be the best free agent out there, and you have to assume that teams like the Texans, Jets, Bills, Browns, Broncos, Eagles, and maybe the Rams will put in competitive offers for Cousins's services.  With so many teams in need of a quarterback, and Cousins being 27 and at the top of the free agent list, it is not unlikely that he decides to go where the money is good because this may be his only shot at a big payday. 

Another alternative is the draft, but that road is fraught with even more uncertainty.  The top quarterbacks in the Draft this year are Christian Hackenberg who sucks (I don't care how good he was his freshman year and the "James Franklin's offense ruined his development" argument.  If we let Cousins go for this guy I will be livid), Cardale Jones (read the passage beginning "Said one AFC GM" below the picture of Jones and read the quote from Phil Savage below the picture of Jamarcus Russell), and Connor Cook who may be better but it may also take him time to acclimate to the offense.  The other caveat to these quarterbacks is Cousins may play so well that the Redskins are out of position to draft these guys even if they wanted to.  This list of alternative quarterbacks to Cousins should have Scot McCloughan holding a reverse telethon where he has all the people in the background calling Cousins's agent nonstop.  There are no clear alternatives that are better than Cousins at the moment, and Cousins will be the most sought after free agent quarterback in the offseason.  And for good reason because he has shown improvement over this season.

Cousins's Game Has Evolved Over the Course of the Season
Cousins's stats for the first 6 games of the season (record 2-4):
66.2% completion    1420 yards (237 y/g)    6 TD     8 INT

Cousins's stats the last 3 games:
71.4% completion    858 yards (286 y/g)     8 TD      1 INT

Small sample size for the last three, but suffice to say that Cousins has improved immensely over the last three games.  We will know more when Cousins has to go into Carolina and then come back to DC to face the Giants over Thanksgiving weekend, but there has been improvement over this season to warrant keeping Cousins here. 

Cousins Is the Leader
This is more of an arbitrary qualitative measure but look at what Cousins has done this season.  He has led two dramatic game winning drives, one game tying drive with 50 seconds left, he coined one super charged catch phrase, he would have kept pace with the Patriots if not for a parade of ineptitude, and he hung 47 points on a Saints team that pumped up the defense so much that it led to this exchange at the end of the game.  Imitation is the highest form of flattery, and in this case Chris Baker's action said more than his words.  It shows that the defense is on board with Cousins.  Winning helps that notion take hold, but over the last three games you have seen a concerted effort from the defense to give Kirk every chance to move the ball because he has proven that he has the ability to win games.  Cousins also boasts the fourth highest completion percentage in the league which keep his receivers happy and the offense on the field.  And when he is out there, especially the last three games, you just get this sense that he has command over this offense.  He has cut down on the turnovers, he rarely takes sacks (only Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played 9 or more games and been sacked less than Cousins), his accuracy has gone through the roof when teams know that his game is short to intermediate, and he has developed a passing report with numerous receivers. You just get the sense that something good is going to happen on every offensive possession, and that is not something we have felt in a while.

At this moment the price tag should be about a three to four year contract worth about 5-7 million per year.  If Cousins's agent is smart he will start a bidding war with the team, using his free agent status as leverage, and the contract may get extended longer and for more money.  My guess is that if the Redskins keep winning you could see a four to five year contract worth 10 million plus.  Well worth it for a fourth round pariah who was seen as a coach's hubris pick.  Now, Kirk Cousins is poised to lead the Redskins on a Divisional Championship run that could make him the hottest free agent this summer if the Redskins do not play their cards right.  Let's do the right thing and Keep KC in DC.