Redskins vs. Falcons: Are the Redskins or Falcons For Real?

Will the Redskins be able to methodically move the ball in order to score and keep Matt Ryan off the field?  Or, will Matt Ryan be able to rain down 20-30 yard passes against a depleted Redskins secondary in order to win the game?  Does any of this even matter?  It does matter when you consider that two of the three touchdowns the Redskins gave up last week were on passes of 30 yards or more, and now they have to play against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  It matters when the Falcons give up less running yards per offensive possession than the Redskins' previous foe; The Philadelphia Eagles.  It all matters when the game on paper looks like an air raid conducted with impunity by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones that will crush any hopes of this season being anything but salvageable for the Redskins.  It is easy to point to a depleted Redskins secondary to state the keys of the game, but that does not mean that it is the wrong answer.  The Redskins will need to find an answer for the likes of Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and their old pal Leonard Hankerson in order to limit the amount of big plays the Falcons are able to convert against their defense.  The Falcons will need to get the Redskins off of the field on third down, and clog up the short to mid range passing lanes in order to fluster Kirk Cousins into one of his patented 3rd quarter, back breaking, interceptions.  The subtleties of this game are far deeper, and the Redskins would be wise to learn from these outlines in order to be successful on Sunday.   

Scoring when we get inside the Atlanta 30 yard line: Any scoring will do.  The Redskins are only scoring on 32% of their drives as opposed to Falcons scoring on 45% of their drives.  If the Redskins expect to win against a team that outscores them 34-19 on average this season they need to get points whenever they cross the Falcons 30 yard line.  Touchdowns are preferable, but field goals will serve their purpose.  The Redskins just need to show that they can score on every possession and put the pressure on the Falcons to do the same.  Take a lesson from the Giants game on Thursday Night, and see how field goals can be integral to success.  Dustin Hopkins needs be perfect in order for the Redskins to win the game.  One missed kick (field goal or extra point) will cost them the game against a team that has the ability to score quickly against a depleted secondary.  This scoring will do no good, however, if the Redskins cannot continue their time of possession dominance and limit the Falcons chances at scoring.

Get Yards the Hard Way: Running the ball will be the Redskins best friend.  Atlanta's defense has faced the second least amount of rushing attempts in the league this season (77), and they are giving up the eighth most yards per rushing attempt (4.4).  The Redskins are averaging the third best yards per attempt average in the league (4.4), and they are averaging the most rushing yards per game (139.5).  They also showed versatility within the running game last week with the emergence of Chris Thompson.  Thompson gives their running game and added dynamic of speed and catching ability out of the backfield, and if the Falcons are unable to shut down one of these running backs it could be a field day for the Redskins running attack.  They should run the ball at least 30 times in order to control the clock, put themselves in manageable down and distances, and to test a Falcons defense that has not been run on heavily over the first three games.  As much as I love Alfred Morris because he is on my fantasy team, I see Matt Jones getting a bigger workload this week in order to show the Falcons some breakaway speed between the tackles. Chris Thompson should also see between 5-10 carries in order to set up screen passes on third down.  Expect to see one Thompson screen pass go for over 20 yards in this game.  Running the ball will limit the Falcons's possessions, but the Redskins cannot hold onto the ball forever.  The defense will need to step up in big situations.

The Most Dangerous Receivers Do Not Wear #11: Julio Jones will get his. There should be no analysis on what to do about him because you know he is going to get the yardage if a pass can be thrown to him.  The Redskins need to make sure that they can put as many people on Jones as possible by stopping Leonard Hankerson and Devonta Freeman in the passing game.  Hankerson has benefitted from Jones taking the pressure off of him and allowing him to go for 14.2 yards per reception so far this season, which is a better average than Julio Jones. Freeman has just as many receptions as Hankerson, and the Falcons will look to keep the linebackers and safeties looking for the short pass in order to open up deep routes for Julio Jones. The Redskins need to find a way to marginalize these two receiving threats in order to put more of their energy in stopping Julio Jones.  If Hankerson and Freeman go for more than 120 combined receiving yards it shows that the Redskins are unable to stop the Falcons secondary passing attack, and that they will be relying on Kirk Cousins to once again engineer a magnificent performance. 

Need Another Big Day From Cousins and Linebackers: Who has given up the fourth most passing yards in the league so far this year?  That's right. It's the Falcons.  And those yards have come in 175 attempts with a 65% completion rate and averaging 305 yards per game.  Those numbers are not outrageous, but it shows that this team can be thrown on.  Look for Cousins to have another efficient game if we want to win, and look for an increased role for Rashad Ross to burn downfield in order to open up the intermediate passing lanes.  The linebackers also need a big day getting to Matt Ryan and containing Devonta Freeman.  Murphy and Kerrigan need to flash some lateral speed in the flat, while splicing in some rushes that force Matt Ryan to move his feet in the pocket.  Preston Smith should see an increased workload in order to provide more speed on the outside, and don't be surprised if you hear Jackson Jeffcoat's name called more than once in celebration of a big play.  Anything less than 300 yards passing and no sacks spells doom for the Redskins.

The recipe for success against the Falcons is that they need to be challenged on the ground so we can hold the ball, and then hope that Julio Jones shows mercy.  Cousins also needs to show that he can string together two good performances in a row and win on the road.  The Redskins have not met a matchup as hard as this one, but neither have the Falcons.  Ultimately, I see The Falcons home field advantage being too strong for the Redskins to overcome this week in Atlanta.

24-21 Redskins lose.