Redskins vs. Falcons: The Most Important Dan Snyder Era Season Begins

Last night's preseason game against the Falcons kicked off what will be the most significant season The Redskins franchise has faced since Dan Snyder became owner.  Never before have The Redskins had an incumbent quarterback come off such a successful season without a major injury or quarterback controversy in the Dan Snyder Era.  Never before has Dan Snyder invested so much money into the quarterback position.  Never before in the Snyder era have the Redskins surrounded their quarterback with as much talent at the WR and TE position.  Finally, never in the last 15 years have we amassed as much talent on both sides of the ball to give the fan base a reasonable sense that this team could do something it has also not done since Dan Snyder took over: Have back to back winning seasons.  The quest for consecutive winning seasons means more when you figure that the Redskins have put together a team that will metaphorically, and literally, stare down the fate of this franchise over the course of the 2016 season.

The Redskins and Kirk Cousins will have their fate for the next four to five seasons hanging in the balance every week. If Gruden and Cousins can repeat the magic of last season, both may be able to continue that magic for the long term here in Washington.  If not, it could be back to the drawing board at quarterback as we have seen Scot McCloughan be stingy about a long term contract for Cousins so far.  The Redskins will literally stare down their fate as Robert Griffin will more than likely be starting for the Browns when they come to FedEx Field on October 2nd.  If that is the case then all that has been built over the last 18 months will come down to that one game.  The Redskins win and Gruden and McCloughan made the right decision going with Cousins over Griffin.  The Redskins lose and they will suffer a symbolic setback that they may not be able to recover from.  Suffice to say that this season will determine whether the Redskins can become a perennial winning team or continue their five year cycle of one amazing "no one saw that coming" playoff season followed by four years of 4-12 turmoil.  It all began with the preseason opener against the Falcons, and here are the high a low points:

If the faith that Jay Gruden has in Kirk Cousins's abilities was not apparent, it is after last night's performance.  Cousins went 5 for 5 on one drive and called it a night.  Cousins did what he was the best in the NFL at last season, which was completion percentage, and his limited playing time should give fans solace that Gruden knows that Cousins can make plays.  Kudos also go out to Ryan Grant, who made the most of his targets from Cousins and showed that he may yet have life on this crowded receiver corps, and to Rashad Ross who may be moving himself into the returner role with an impressive opening kickoff return.  Robert Kelley and Mack Brown looked like they could fight or an RB spot on the team, although they may need to showcase their talents against tougher competition.  Team awards go to the first team defense and the punt coverage team.   I think Madden 2017 may need to consider giving Tress Way that 99 rating they so graciously gave Matt Turk because the punt coverage team did an amazing job all night of covering punts, especially the first one that they downed inside the one. Following that punt, the first team defense was able to hold the Falcons from moving the ball and looked every bit of the defense we saw from last season.  Martrell Spaight made some great plays that showed he wants to make an impact after his injury from last season, Su'a Cravens showed flashes of brilliance in run support, and Trent Murphy made a case that he may not be done yet at outside linebacker.  Negatives were abound, however, and the biggest ones have to do with the running game.

Matt Jones was the darling of last year's preseason, but he did not show much in this first game.  It could be that the Redskins do not want to over work him due to last year's injuries, but all the other running backs were able to make some big plays that were lacking in Jones's performance.  If this continues do not be surprised if Chris Thompson gets the starting nod at least some point this preseason.  The running game was also a problem on the defensive side of the ball.  The defense was able to shut down the outside running lanes but they were gashed on runs between the tackles.  These runs up the middle were the backbone of the Falcons's first scoring drive, and it could become a glaring weakness considering the Redskins did not really address the DT position after the departure of Terrance Knighton.  The backup secondary looked shaky as well.  Quinton Dunbar had a long night covering former Redskin go route specialist Aldrick Robinson, and he received no help from Will Blackmon at safety.  Finally, while the punt team did it's job, the kickoff team figured that Dustin Hopkins must run a 4.3 and left it up to him to cover the kick coming out of halftime.  They found out otherwise and need to sure that up for next week.

Onward to the Jets for next week, where we should get more from the first teamers and a better idea of who should be starting at running back this season.

Redskins vs. Falcons: Are the Redskins or Falcons For Real?

Will the Redskins be able to methodically move the ball in order to score and keep Matt Ryan off the field?  Or, will Matt Ryan be able to rain down 20-30 yard passes against a depleted Redskins secondary in order to win the game?  Does any of this even matter?  It does matter when you consider that two of the three touchdowns the Redskins gave up last week were on passes of 30 yards or more, and now they have to play against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  It matters when the Falcons give up less running yards per offensive possession than the Redskins' previous foe; The Philadelphia Eagles.  It all matters when the game on paper looks like an air raid conducted with impunity by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones that will crush any hopes of this season being anything but salvageable for the Redskins.  It is easy to point to a depleted Redskins secondary to state the keys of the game, but that does not mean that it is the wrong answer.  The Redskins will need to find an answer for the likes of Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and their old pal Leonard Hankerson in order to limit the amount of big plays the Falcons are able to convert against their defense.  The Falcons will need to get the Redskins off of the field on third down, and clog up the short to mid range passing lanes in order to fluster Kirk Cousins into one of his patented 3rd quarter, back breaking, interceptions.  The subtleties of this game are far deeper, and the Redskins would be wise to learn from these outlines in order to be successful on Sunday.   

Scoring when we get inside the Atlanta 30 yard line: Any scoring will do.  The Redskins are only scoring on 32% of their drives as opposed to Falcons scoring on 45% of their drives.  If the Redskins expect to win against a team that outscores them 34-19 on average this season they need to get points whenever they cross the Falcons 30 yard line.  Touchdowns are preferable, but field goals will serve their purpose.  The Redskins just need to show that they can score on every possession and put the pressure on the Falcons to do the same.  Take a lesson from the Giants game on Thursday Night, and see how field goals can be integral to success.  Dustin Hopkins needs be perfect in order for the Redskins to win the game.  One missed kick (field goal or extra point) will cost them the game against a team that has the ability to score quickly against a depleted secondary.  This scoring will do no good, however, if the Redskins cannot continue their time of possession dominance and limit the Falcons chances at scoring.

Get Yards the Hard Way: Running the ball will be the Redskins best friend.  Atlanta's defense has faced the second least amount of rushing attempts in the league this season (77), and they are giving up the eighth most yards per rushing attempt (4.4).  The Redskins are averaging the third best yards per attempt average in the league (4.4), and they are averaging the most rushing yards per game (139.5).  They also showed versatility within the running game last week with the emergence of Chris Thompson.  Thompson gives their running game and added dynamic of speed and catching ability out of the backfield, and if the Falcons are unable to shut down one of these running backs it could be a field day for the Redskins running attack.  They should run the ball at least 30 times in order to control the clock, put themselves in manageable down and distances, and to test a Falcons defense that has not been run on heavily over the first three games.  As much as I love Alfred Morris because he is on my fantasy team, I see Matt Jones getting a bigger workload this week in order to show the Falcons some breakaway speed between the tackles. Chris Thompson should also see between 5-10 carries in order to set up screen passes on third down.  Expect to see one Thompson screen pass go for over 20 yards in this game.  Running the ball will limit the Falcons's possessions, but the Redskins cannot hold onto the ball forever.  The defense will need to step up in big situations.

The Most Dangerous Receivers Do Not Wear #11: Julio Jones will get his. There should be no analysis on what to do about him because you know he is going to get the yardage if a pass can be thrown to him.  The Redskins need to make sure that they can put as many people on Jones as possible by stopping Leonard Hankerson and Devonta Freeman in the passing game.  Hankerson has benefitted from Jones taking the pressure off of him and allowing him to go for 14.2 yards per reception so far this season, which is a better average than Julio Jones. Freeman has just as many receptions as Hankerson, and the Falcons will look to keep the linebackers and safeties looking for the short pass in order to open up deep routes for Julio Jones. The Redskins need to find a way to marginalize these two receiving threats in order to put more of their energy in stopping Julio Jones.  If Hankerson and Freeman go for more than 120 combined receiving yards it shows that the Redskins are unable to stop the Falcons secondary passing attack, and that they will be relying on Kirk Cousins to once again engineer a magnificent performance. 

Need Another Big Day From Cousins and Linebackers: Who has given up the fourth most passing yards in the league so far this year?  That's right. It's the Falcons.  And those yards have come in 175 attempts with a 65% completion rate and averaging 305 yards per game.  Those numbers are not outrageous, but it shows that this team can be thrown on.  Look for Cousins to have another efficient game if we want to win, and look for an increased role for Rashad Ross to burn downfield in order to open up the intermediate passing lanes.  The linebackers also need a big day getting to Matt Ryan and containing Devonta Freeman.  Murphy and Kerrigan need to flash some lateral speed in the flat, while splicing in some rushes that force Matt Ryan to move his feet in the pocket.  Preston Smith should see an increased workload in order to provide more speed on the outside, and don't be surprised if you hear Jackson Jeffcoat's name called more than once in celebration of a big play.  Anything less than 300 yards passing and no sacks spells doom for the Redskins.

The recipe for success against the Falcons is that they need to be challenged on the ground so we can hold the ball, and then hope that Julio Jones shows mercy.  Cousins also needs to show that he can string together two good performances in a row and win on the road.  The Redskins have not met a matchup as hard as this one, but neither have the Falcons.  Ultimately, I see The Falcons home field advantage being too strong for the Redskins to overcome this week in Atlanta.

24-21 Redskins lose.