The Caps Winning The Stanley Cup Has Killed DC Fandom

What are DC Sports Fans supposed to do now?  The Capitals historic win on Thursday Night eradicated all of what being a fan of DC Sports is all about.  Pain.  Misery.  Self Loathing.  Getting high off of crazy preseason optimism knowing that it will all come crashing down in some horrible self fulfilling prophecy in the playoffs.  Doing simple arithmetic to show others how you have never seen, or were too young to remember, a professional championship in DC.  All of that is gone now.  What is left is something that will define the type of fan base this city truly has and whether it is ready to support sports teams through genuine fandom, or if their support only goes as far as frenzied feelings of FOMO.

DC Fans seemed to take the frivolous statement from Michael Wilbon, that Washington DC was a "minor league sports town", a little too much to heart, and they were a little too quick to point to the outpouring of fans at the Caps viewing party Thursday night as evidence to the contrary.  While it was amazing to see how many people came out to support the Caps, many of those people were there to be a part of the scene rather than show their enduring support for a team they have cheered for for years.  Stories were abound about how these Stanley Cup Playoff Games were the first hockey games that a lot of these people watched, and they went down to Capital One Arena on Thursday simply because they did not want to miss out on the festivities.  But winning a championship does not instantaneously turn these people into regular fans.  Just ask the Carolina Hurricanes how many interlopers from their 2006 Stanley Cup Championship are still there.  Or look at the Miami Marlins, who would kill for a quarter of the people who jumped on their bandwagon in 1997 and 2003 to still be there today.  DC Sports fans now find themselves in a similar situation.  The Capitals have drawn in multitudes of fans to their cause, but mostly due to fear of missing out on a social scene.  It will take more than that to prove Michael Wilbon wrong, and now it is time to see if DC Fandom truly has what it takes to foster a genuine "sports town" atmosphere.

The Capitals have removed the security blanket from DC Fans by winning the Stanley Cup.  For so long the narrative has been that it is hard to develop a genuine sports culture in DC because of so much ineptitude, impotence, and playoff tragedies galore from all the DC professional sports teams.  Most of that has been washed away by the Capitals victory on Thursday night.  Fans were witness to a team that was intelligently put together and mentored throughout the season.  They saw the likes of Max Scherzer, Ryan Zimmerman, and Derrius Guice show their support for the Caps on their run to the Cup.  The teams are doing all they can to create a unified sense among all the different teams and superstars, and now they have at least one championship to show for this shared unity.  It is now on the fans of Washington DC to show that they will show long term support for a team like the Capitals because they love the sport, and not because they love the number of Instagram likes they get when they post stuff with #ALLCAPS.  DC Fans now must show that they can evolve from a fan base of self loathing to one that can legitimately support their teams by watching games and becoming informed fans, and not just jump on every time a championship rolls around.  The Capitals have put the onus on DC Fans to prove that this city can be more than an event driven town that fluctuates based on the level of attention each sport will bring to the individual.  DC fans need to show that this city can be one with an informed fan base that will continue to grow in mass no matter what time of year it is.  If this does not happen, then maybe DC is just a minor league sports town, but we know now that it is not because of the nature of the teams.  It is the nature of the fans.  

The Capitals Exposed the Golden Knights

As Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals looms on the horizon, there are still some people who continue the narrative that the Golden Knights are the literal incarnation of the cosplay character that adorns their home pregame festivities.  But that Golden Knight is just a guy in a suit, and the Las Vegas Golden Knights unfortunately have to play a real hockey game against a team that showed they are not afraid of the tall tales that have vaulted Vegas into an almost mythic realm.  Washington's win in Game 2 very subtly exposed some of the weaknesses in the Las Vegas's style of play, and it showed that the Capitals have the ability to match the one thing that makes the Legend of the Las Vegas Golden Knights live.  Relentlessness.

All the Golden Knights have going for them is they are relentless.  Nothing else.  This relentlessness is predicated on a few misinterpreted qualities that have been attributed to them throughout the playoffs that the Capitals exposed as dubious in Game 2.  

First, Vegas is not fast.  They are quick.  The Golden Knights are quick in short spaces which allows them to close the distance to the puck better than the other team and cause discomfort in their opponents when they are trying to exit their defensive zone.  Their speed is questionable, however, due to the Capitals dominating them in odd man rushes in Game 2.  If the Knights are so "fast" how can they let those odd man rushes be so lop sided?  It is because The Golden Knights are not fast in the open ice, they are quick to hound the puck within smaller zones.  Their overly zealous forecheck leaves the susceptible to teams getting behind them in transition and the Capitals exploited that in Game 2.

Second, Vegas's lines are all second line quality, except they lack the skill necessary to play under a controlled pace.  Watch the 4v4 play from Game 2.  Everyone was expecting the Knights to run the Caps with more open ice in 4v4 but that was not the case.  Vegas backed off on their relentless forecheck that allowed the Capitals more breathing room in their exits out of the defensive zone, and when the Knights tried to get aggressive in 4v4 play it led to a wide open goal by Lars Eller.  The Capitals also exposed this lack of skill when they went down 5v3.  The Knights looked lost when they actually had to create plays that require deft passing and the time to develop open shots, and their lack of high quality scoring chances with a 1:09 5v3 advantage shows that their lines lack the skill to play in a controlled environment.  If they cannot generate quick chances off of their forecheck, which they are very good at, then their offense seems to sputter and the Capitals exposed that fact in Game 2.

Finally, the notion that Vegas's zeal could not be replicated (or that Washington's could not get any greater) is a crock.  The Golden Knights are seeing that the Capitals can match the vigor with which they play, and the Capitals add an extra piece of perseverance to the table that Vegas seems ill equipped to handle.  The Capitals are proving that their journey through the Eastern Conference Playoffs has prepared them for the relentless style of play that the Golden Knights bring, and that they will not be bullied by a team of lower ability and skill.  Vegas's success is predicated on the notion that their relentlessness will eventually wear the other team down to the point where they will make a mistake, but the Capitals showed that they can overcome that style of play and counter with a type of play that the Golden Knights cannot match.  It remains to be seen who comes out on top, but the Capitals have shown that the Golden Knights are no better than any other show in Las Vegas.

Ovechkin's Legend Continues To Grow

Very few fan bases get to witness a legend being made right before their eyes.  Even fewer get to see that happen to someone who has already established themselves as one of the greatest players to ever play their sport, but that is what Capitals fans have witnessed over the last two playoff series.  Alex Ovechkin continued his march out of his stat compiler purgatory on Wednesday Night by winning a Game 7 on the road to win the Eastern Conference Championship.  That win caused a frenzied scene in DC that was a personification of the frustration that DC Sports Fans have felt over the last 25 years without cheering for a team in a championship capacity.  DC fans, though, should not see Ovechkin's feats this year in the playoffs as merely a necessary means to break an arbitrary curse.  They should appreciate it for what it is; one of the greatest players of his generation finally getting the chance to fulfill his destiny in a Washington Capitals uniform.  Few fan bases get to see something like this because it is not the normal way that sports legends are made.

When a player gets drafted to be the savior of a franchise it usually does not take them as long, or go through as arduous of a career, as Alex Ovechkin has to make good on that promise.  Usually the savior comes in and within 5-8 years they lead their team into a position to win a championship.  Look at Jordan, Lebron, Gretzky, Bonds, Kobe, Crosby (sorry Caps fans, but its true), or Peyton Manning.  These greats had early growing pains, but within a short time frame they were able to lead their teams to the championship rounds, and most of them were able to win it all.  Even stat mongers like Dan Marino and Karl Malone were able to get to the gates of promised land early on, even if they were never able to finish the job. Capitals fans, though, are watching a unique career arc that has made this Stanley Cup berth all the more special.  For twelve years Alex Ovechkin has garnered numerous individual accolades without even having a chance to compete for a Conference Championship.  He has had to persevere through numerous coaching changes, accusations of lax work ethic, yearnings from the fan base to trade him from Washington, and countless epithets about  how his time to win a championship had passed.  He now finds himself with a new centerpiece for his dining room table and chance to give Caps fans a storied career that no other fan base has witnessed.

This blog has written about Alex Ovechkin's championship futility time and again, and what it means for his place in the annals of DC Sports History.  If Ovechkin is able to win the Stanley Cup this year it will solidify him as the greatest athlete the DC area has ever seen.  Ovechkin has become one of the greatest goal scorers of all time, and he has taken a niche franchise and made it the toast of the town.  Even the Redskins are taking a back seat for the next two weeks as the Capitals try to bring the first professional championship to Washington DC in a quarter century.  Ovechkin has ignited the entire city, and he has drawn even the most novice of DC Sports fan into the Capitals' orbit through his perseverance through adversity.  No other major sports figure played 12 years in the same city and fought through countless write offs to finally deliver their fan base from misery.  Now he has the chance to achieve a level of greatness that no other sports figure has attained within the DC area, and he could give DC Fans a storied career that is unique to the DC Fan experience.  As the Caps take the ice in Las Vegas on Monday Night, Caps fans should keep in mind that Ovechkin has already made them privy to a unique making of a hockey legend and bringing a Stanley Cup to Washington will make them witness to the crowning of the new king of DC Sports. 

The Capitals Are Winning With Grit

It is hard to believe that it has been ten years since this all started.  Ten years since the Rock the Red era truly began and engulfed the DC market.  Ten years since the Caps were left for dead in the middle of November, only to be resurrected by Bruce Boudreau's high flying style of hockey that led them to a Southeast Division Championship.  Since that time the Caps have regularly enjoyed the pinnacles of success throughout the regular season, only to be disappointed time and again once the playoffs rolled around.  Even the 2007-2008 Capitals, for all the moxie they displayed throughout that season, could not get out of the first round of the playoffs.  The determination of that '07-'08 team, though, is what separates them from the rest of the Caps teams that have won over the past decade.  That team had to scrap for a majority of the season to put themselves in a position to win a division title.  All the other subsequent iterations of the Capitals rested on the laurels of their talent, and high expectations, to carry them to success without developing a true sense of grit.  Until this season.

For the first time in ten years, the Capitals came into this season with very low expectations.  Another playoff exit at the hands of the Penguins, coupled with the exodus of numerous high profile free agents, led everyone to the conclusion that the Capitals' window of success had closed.  Even die hard Caps fans had to take a serious look at the game program on opening day to know who the hell was starting, and most fans expected this new combination of players to be inferior to what they had seen in the recent past.  The fans' reservations about the team were confirmed early on, but the Caps have fought through that adversity in a way nobody expected to find themselves at the top of the Metropolitan Division in an equally inexplicable manner.  Just look at the stats.  The Capitals are 24th in the league in Corsi% (47.82%), which means they are giving up significantly more shots on goal than they put on their opponents net.  They are the only division leader that has under 100 points, and their +15 goal differential is the lowest of any team that has 90 points or more.  They have the 5th worst penalty differential at -32, meaning they are taking way more penalties than they are drawing.  Finally, their PDO stat (Save% + Shooting%, which traditionally has been an indirect indicator of luck) of 101.62 is 5th best in the league.  So the Caps are leading the most competitive division in the NHL with a low goal differential relative to their point total while taking numerous penalties and benefiting from a wee bit of puck luck. What gives?  The answer lies in the grit that the Capitals have developed over the course of this season.

Despite the high roster turnover and low expectations stemming from the end of last season, the Capitals have been able to organically develop a sense of resiliency through all players needing to prove themselves.  New forwards like Chandler Stephenson, Devante Smith-Pelly, and Alex Chiasson had to prove that they belong on a high caliber team such as the Capitals.  Jakub Vrana had to prove that his skill set warranted him being a regular second line starter.  Brett Connolly needed to prove that he was not a one-hit-free-agent wonder.  Christian Djoos needed to prove that he could replace both the offensive and defensive skills that left the Capitals defense after last seasons.  Grubauer needed to prove that Vegas made a mistake in passing on him in the supplemental draft, and subsequently Holtby continues to need to prove he is still the number one goalie in DC.  Finally, the superstars of the team needed to prove that the real skill of the team did not leave Washington, and that they could keep the window of success open so long as they wear a red sweater.  All of these sentiments have coalesced into a team that is not phased by close games, and one that has come out on top in those games more often than naught through resiliency rather than skill level.  Maybe the advanced stats are right, and that the Capitals have just been the benefit of luck throughout this season.  And maybe the Caps will continue to be susceptible to teams like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay who have the speed and skill through the middle that have haunted this team in the playoffs in years past.  But unlike other seasons, the Capitals have not tried to manufacture success.  For the first time in ten years, they have developed a mentality from within that has galvanized the team in a way that has made them ready for whatever challenges arise at the end of this season.  It is still not even a given that the Capitals will make the playoffs this season, but the Capitals have the one thing necessary to handle all situations.  Grit.

Alex Ovechkin Will Make History By Not Winning

Alex Ovechkin has cemented a legacy in this area that can only be eclipsed by a certain few, and those people barely touched a hockey rink in their entire lives.  He is the greatest professional athlete the DC area has witnessed in the last 20 years, and his dominance within his sport has not been seen in this area since Walter Johnson pitched for the Washington Senators.  Proof of this omnipotence will be on display over the next week when Ovechkin scores the 600th goal of his career, and it could be on display over the next two months if Ovechkin is able to reach the 50 goal mark for the season and win his seventh Rocket Richard Trophy.  All of these accomplishments, though, will be eclipsed by Ovechkin's inability to win the one thing that could vault him into the position of "Greatest DC Sports Figure"; winning the Stanley Cup.

Ovechkin will set numerous milestones when he scores his 600th goal, hopefully in the next few games, and hopefully in front of the Capital One Arena crowd.  Ovechkin will become the 20th player in NHL history to score 600 goals.  Even more impressive is that he will be only the sixth player to score 600 goals with one franchise.  The others are Bobby Hull with Chicago (604), Joe Sackic with Quebec/Colorado (625), Mario Lemieux with Pittsburgh (690), Steve Yzerman with Detroit (692), and the great Gordie Howe with Detroit (786).  That is elite company, but given the lack of credentials Ovechkin carries he must be lumped in with a not so illustrious section of this fraternity.  When Ovechkin scores his 600th goal he will be one of five players to have scored 600 goals and not won a Stanley Cup in their career.  The others are Dino Ciccarelli, Jerome Iginla, Mike Gartner, and Macel Dionne.  Even more depressing is the fact that Ovechkin will be  one of only three players to have scored 600 goals and never reached the Stanley Cup Finals.  Gartner and Dionne never made it to a Stanley Cup Final in their career, although an asterisk needs to be put next to Gartner as he was traded away from the 1994 Rangers that eventually won the Stanley Cup. So Ovechkin will set precedents for both career glory and futility when he tingles the twine for the 600th time in his NHL career, and this paradox only thickens when looking at more seasonal accomplishments.

Two years ago, Alex Ovechkin became only the 11th player in NHL history to score 50 goals in a season at age 30 or older.  The last player to do that before Ovechkin was Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006. Ovechkin has been bucking the trend in an era that is supposed to be unfavorable to goal scorers, and if he can reach the 50 goal plateau again this season he will once again find himself in unique company.  Only Marcel Dionne, Phil Esposito, Mario Lemieux, and Bobby Hull had multiple 50 goal seasons at age 30 or older, and Ovechkin stands to join their ranks this season.  But if he accomplishes this task, Ovechkin will join Marcel Dionne as the only Non-Stanley Cup winners of this group.  Even if Ovechkin cannot reach 50 goals this season, he is currently leading the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy with 40 goals.  If Ovechkin stays a top the goal scoring leader board it will be his seventh Richard Trophy of his career.  The Rocket Richard Trophy has only been given out since 1998, but it does not look good when its' most decorated recipient is one of only two players who have received this trophy and never even played in a Stanley Cup Final.  The other is Jonathan Cheechoo.  Once again Ovechkin's goal scoring will make history for both good and bad reasons, but for all the career futility that has been outlined here there is one caveat the Ovechkin has in his favor.  He is still playing.

Ovechkin leads a Capitals team that was not supposed to be where they are this season.  Last year was supposed to be the Caps' best chance to win the Stanley Cup, but they fell short again and a large chunk of their talented core left Washington.  Taking their place was a group of unknowns that has only put the Caps in a position to win their division against staggering statistical odds.  The Caps have the 6th worst 5v5 Corsi Against total this season, which means they give up a ton of shots on net at even strength.  They are 8th worst in 5v5 Corsi +/- (-248) and Corsi% (47.99) meaning that they are allowing a lot more shots on their net as they are putting on their opponents net at even strength.  And if you're looking for salvation in the power play, it may dishearten you to know that the Capitals have the 5th worst penalty differential in the league at -32, meaning that they have taken 32 more penalties than they have drawn this season.  And yet they are only one point out of the Metro Division lead, and three points out of being the third best team in the Eastern Conference.  This Capitals team may be forging and identity that it has not had in a long time, and Alex Ovechkin will be at the forefront of it.

This could be Ovechkin's chance to not just make history through his goal scoring, but to also make history through playoff success.  He has captained high flying teams in the past that have underachieved, but now he is at the helm of a team that is building its identity organically for the first time in almost a decade.  This team has built its own expectations rather than having lofty ones bestowed upon them from day one, and that may be the formula that gets the Capitals going to the next level.  The team has faced massive adversity at numerous times this season, and yet they are still firmly entrenched within the playoff hunt despite inconsistent play and shaky goal tending.  Building success from within seems to have been lacking in the Capitals ever since they shocked the world in making the playoffs in 2008, and it may be the formula that takes Alex Ovechkin to the team success that has eluded him his entire career.  Ovechkin currently leads an opportunistic team with an elite goal tender with something to prove that has had a chip on its shoulder about its playoff futility for a decade.  If Ovechkin cannot embody that sense of grit and lead this team to a championship, then he may be the first NHL player to make history for what he did not win for his city and fan base.

Ovi's 50 Needs to Make History for All

Alex Ovechkin put himself in exclusive company against the Blues on Saturday night.  His hat trick all but assured his fourth consecutive, and sixth overall, Rocket Richard Trophy.  Granted, this trophy only came into existence in 1998, but since that time no other player has won it more than twice.  Ovechkin is now the third player in NHL history to score 50 goals seven or more times (Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky did it 9 times).  He is the first player in NHL history to score 50 or more goals in three consecutive seasons twice (2007-2010 and 2013-2016), but this seems less of an achievement when you realize that Gretzky had eight consecutive 50 plus seasons and Bossy's nine 50 goal seasons were consecutive as well.  What people need to be focusing on is the age at which Ovechkin is accomplishing these feats, for both good and bad reasons, and what history we want Ovechkin to be making as Capitals fans.

Although Gretzky and Bossy never had a lull in their 50 goal scoring seasons, Ovechkin has now outpaced them in terms of longevity.  Both Bossy and Gretzky saw their last 50 goal season come before age 30 (Gretzky at 28 and Bossy at 29).  Ovechkin has become only the 9th player in NHL history to score 50 goals at age 30 or older and the first to do so since Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006.  If you believe the notion that goal scoring is harder to come by these days, Ovechkin's 50 goals this season looks even more impressive since two of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history could not get 50 after 30 in an inferior defensive era.  But the "different era" argument is for those who wish to argue ad nauseam about the greatest of all time without really wanting to come to a consensus.  Ovechkin's goal scoring longevity will never surpass what made Bossy and Gretzky great, and Ovechkin is running out of time to achieve this in order to make him live eternally in the annals of NHL lore.

It may not have occurred to Capitals fans, but Ovechkin has yet to even play for a Stanley Cup.  That puts him on the short list with Jonathan Cheechoo, that is his real name, as being the only Rocket Richard winners to never have played in a Stanley Cup Final.  That takes a little bit of luster off of his 50 goal seasons when you realize that all other great goal scorers of this era were at least able to get their teams in position to win a championship, and most of them were able to scale the mountain top.  It is also sobering to know that only three players 30 or older have been able to score 50 goals and win a Stanley Cup in the same season.  They are Joe Sakic with the Avalanche in 2001, Joe Mullen with the Flames in 1989, and Phil Esposito with the Bruins in 1972.  All of this means that Ovechkin's time is running out, and remember that Father Time is undefeated.  While Ovechkin's 50 goals are an individual milestone it is the team's success that will put him into the stratosphere of NHL greats, and Ovechkin is playing with the best overall team of his career.  If Ovehckin cannot win it this year the future looks hazy, at best, as to what type of supporting cast he will have in his continued push for collective greatness. It is more than likely that we may see the departure of Jason Chimera and Dmitri Orlov this offseason, and what will Brian MacLellan do when  T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and Nate Schmidt are all looking for more money after the 2017 season?  If Ovechkin is to attain true greatness he will need to do what he did on Saturday night and lead the only NHL team he has ever known to their first Stanley Cup Championship.  If he does not, maybe he will donate all of his Rocket Richard Trophies to the Verizon Center so we can put them on display.

Please check out Jewels from the Crown where all of the goal scoring info was found.

A Rivalry Rexamined: Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Washington Sports Fans may have neglected to notice that the best team in the NHL's Eastern Conference currently resides at the Verizon Center.  The Capitals are dominating their opponents this season with the newly acquired talent of players like TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, but the one constant on this team that continues to lead them to success is Alex Ovechkin.  While Ovechkin is not the omnipotent force he was early in his career, the Russian Machine has been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons into a sharp shooting opportunist who is scoring goals on more than just breakaways, powerful one timers, and toe drag moves.  Ovechkin has been able to evolve into a player who can score from close in or on rebounds and help out on the back check, which has put him in the top ten in plus/minus so far this season.  It is this evolution that has put the Capitals a top the Eastern Conference, and it should be reviving an old argument for Capital fans based on what is happening with Ovechkin's long time nemesis. 
In Western Pennsylvania, the Penguins and their captain are having somewhat of a different type of season.  The Penguins find themselves fifth in the Metropolitan Division and Sidney Crosby is not exactly having the best of seasons so far.  The normally surgical tactician has only 24 points (7 goals/17 assists) and is a -5, which should be bringing the argument of Crosby vs. Ovechkin back into the NHL consciousness if these season trends continue for both players. There is no question that right now Crosby's Stanley Cup Championship and two Gold Medals outpace Ovechkin's superior individual accomplishments, but Crosby's lackluster season so far begins to beg the question of longevity.  What happens if Crosby's production continues to wane and Ovechkin can continue to be a top 10 goal scorer for that same period of time? 

Ovechkin had his dip in production from 2010-2012 where people were asking if Ovechkin's time as a dominant goal scorer was over.  He responded with three straight Rocket Richard Trophies and has vaulted himself back into the NHL's elite.  The difference with Sidney Crosby is that he has already had a decline in production in his career.  From 2010-2013 Crosby only played in 99 games due to injury, and his overall stats subsequently took a hit.  It is scary to think of what Crosby's career numbers would be had he been able to play more over those three seasons, and he did come back to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) in 2013-2014, but another statistical dud from Crosby sans injury could begin to swing the argument back in Ovechkin's favor if Ovechkin is able to continue to be productive.  Fifty goal scorers are not common at Ovechkin's age, and if Ovechkin can score 50 even one more time it may add the dimension of prolonged success to this argument that could offset some of the significance of the championships that Crosby has won.
Wherever a current hypothetical scenario can take this argument, the current reality is that Crosby is on top due to the championships he has won with the Penguins and Team Canada.  But up until this year it almost seemed a forgone conclusion that Ovechkin would need to win a Stanley Cup before this rivalry could be revived.  Looking at the season that Crosby is having now may counter that sentiment by seeing how well each player can end their career.  If Crosby ends his career with only second/third line center production, and if Ovechkin can do what only 8 players have done in NHL history (score 50 goals after age 30) and continue to be a legit first line winger for the next three to five years, it may give Ovechkin an edge over Crosby in terms of longevity.  And if the Capitals can do what some people say they should do this year, it will vault Ovechkin over his longtime nemesis and revive a rivalry that has lain dormant for the past five years.