Thursday, December 29, 2016

Melo Brings Back More Than Just Talent

It was not but a few months ago that Melo Trimble made a risky decision to pull his name from the NBA draft and come back for his Junior season.  At this time last year it was almost a forgone conclusion that Melo would be gone after a predicted stellar Sophomore campaign, and while the Terps reached the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in over a decade Melo seemed to lose his luster in the second half of last year.  Trimble was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the Big Ten season, and rumors of a lingering injury were bandied around to try and make sense of this step back in performance from one of the most electrifying Freshman of 2015.  These inconsistencies may be the reason that Melo decided to come back and bring his stock up for this year's NBA Draft, but he also brings back a sense of leadership and loyalty to the program that mirrors another flashy point guard who decided to come back for one more year to raise his draft status.

Greivis Vasquez was another person who was set to leave for the NBA after his Junior season.  He had the moxy and attitude to play in the NBA, but his erratic style left something to be desired in an over saturated point guard market in the 2009 NBA Draft.  Vasquez made the decision to come back to College Park in May of 2009 to hone his skills and in the process he led the Terps to one of their best seasons since 2000.  The 2009-2010 season saw the Terps win a share of the ACC regular season title by beating the #4 Duke Blue Devils in the last home game of the season at the XFinity Center, and they came within 6.6 seconds of making it to the Sweet Sixteen.  And remember that Michigan State went on to the Final Four that season because Kansas had been upset by Northern Iowa in the Second Round and #2 Ohio State lost to Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen meaning that ipso facto the Terps would have made it to the Final Four that year.  For Vasquez personally, his Senior season could not have ended any better.  He was the 2010 ACC Player of the Year, a Second Team All-American, and he was drafted 28th overall in the 2010 Draft.  Melo's return may mirror Vasquez's 2010 season in that the Terps could be poised for a run given what Melo brings back outside of his talent, and what Marlyand has done to compliment Melo's strengths.

Melo Trimble's abilities were needed to have this season be a success.  That has been evident over the first 14 games.  What also has been evident over the first 14 games is a resiliency and willingness to win that has not been present the past two seasons.  The Terps have been able to erase four nine point second half deficits this season, and without Melo's leadership those comebacks may not have occurred.  Melo must also know that he cannot go at it alone, and the he needs to rely on the pieces that Mark Turgeon has put in place this season to help him and the Terps become a better team.  Turgeon must have seen that when Melo was not in the game last year the team looked lost on offense, and more often than not they resorted to jacking up threes or driving down the lane into double teams.  Enter Anthony Cowan, who has shown that he can be that ball handler/distributer the Terps need when Melo needs a break.  The Terps now do not look as inept on offense without Melo in the game, and that was showcased in their rout of Illinois on Tuesday night.  Cowan, along with guys like Kevin Huerter, Jaylen Brantley, Dion Wiley, Justin Jackson, and L.G. Gill, give the Terps some much needed depth and intangibles that at times may have been lacking last season.  But Melo Trimble is the glue.  His talent is what the Terps needed to have back to give this team a chance, but the dedication, experience, and leadership he brings back could have the Terps surprising some people come March.  And maybe, just maybe, he can create enough surprises this year to have his number resting at XFinity Center right next to that fiery point guard who also decided come back for one more year.


Thursday, November 17, 2016

Redskins vs. Vikings: Back to the Future

Last Sunday's win over the Vikings gave Redskins fans a glorious glimpse of the franchise's past, present, and future all at one time.  It made us try and remember the last time we had a winning record after our ninth game of the season, which we then realized was at the tail end of the Horny 4 Zorny craze of 2008 and we started to have that all too familiar Redskins fan feeling of "this team will let us down like it always does".  But the win against the Vikings reminded us that the 2016 iteration of the Washington Redskins maybe the Marty McFly of 1985 that helps erase the memory of his family's past impotency through moxy and determination.

It has been stated that there is a different air about this team this season; a determination not seen in years past that has kept them fighting in close games where they had wilted in the past.  This comes as a surprise to a fan base whose Pavlovian response in the last two minutes of a close Redskins game is to settle in to their favorite chair and calmly wait for the meteor of disappointment to make its inevitable crash into the depths of our hearts.  But the attitude of this team has changed because the Redskins finally have players in leadership positions that have shown that determination in their career arcs through this league and the franchise.  Think about Will Compton and Chris Baker who had to work their way off the practice squad to become central leaders of this defense.  Pierre Garcon had to prove that he could emerge out of Reggie Wayne's shadow and produce on his own, and he has anchored this receiving corps for the last four years.  Rob Kelley won his starting role as an undrafted free agent this season and has sparked a renaissance in the Redskins running game.  DeSean Jackson has always had to overcome issues with his size to prove himself to teams that drafted Devin Thomas and Fred Davis over him in 2008 (We also let the Packers draft Jordy Nelson two picks after we took Devin Thomas).  We finally hit on a big name free agent in Josh Norman, who may have been a bad ass last year but he was not so hot being drafted in the 5th round out of Coastal Carolina in 2012.  We also hit on the wily veteran free agent who surprisingly has something left in the tank.  Vernon Davis has been rejuvenated playing in front of his hometown crowd after being left for dead in Denver last season.  And the ultimate leader of this team is a guy most everyone thought was a waste of a draft pick and would never see the light of day playing behind the franchise's golden boy, and some still believe we can go it without him next season after all he has done.  All of these players fill leadership positions and have fought to get where they are and still have something to prove.  This combination is why we have seen the Redskins continue to fight on both sides of the ball, regardless of what has transpired during the game.  It is a delicate balance that Scot McCloughan would be wise to keep intact as much as possible, and the win over the Vikings provided some telling portends about the future of this franchise.

The Vikings game provided two pieces of information about the Redskins future.  The first is that Kirk Cousins is going to be a franchise quarterback for us if we resign him.  He not only led the team on four scoring drives in the second half, but his two touchdown passes showed that he has the ability to throw people open in the red zone (the Jamison Crowder TD) and that he can throw an accurate deep ball (the Vernon Davis TD).  He is the leader of this team, and if we let him go we will be letting go of the invaluable intangibles that he brings to this team.  Kirk Cousins needs to be back next year.  Unfortunately for DeSean Jackson, this game proved that he may not be as valuable as we once thought.  He obviously makes the Redskins better, but how bad are they without him?  The Redskins moved the ball efficiently enough to show that Jackson's deep threat may be more of a myth than reality as long as the run game stays healthy.  This is not to say that his deep ball is not helpful, but the argument was that the threat of Jackson going deep opens up the passing game for everyone else.  The offense looked just fine against Minnesota without DeSean streaking down the field, so don't be surprised if the Redskins let him walk at the end of the season.

Onto the Packers on Sunday Night, where the Redskins determination will be put to the test in a thickening NFC playoff race.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

We Know Kirk Cousins, and We Need Him to Stay

The Redskins bye week has been a cacophony of opinions about the future of Kirk Cousins and this franchise.  This dialogue was inevitable given that the franchise tag that Cousins has been carrying around this season makes for sensational conjecture and blogger fodder.  But the tone of this dialogue is what is baffling given Cousins performance as the unquestioned starter over the last 25 games.  This notion that we still don't know what to make of Cousins is asinine.  Even more asinine is the hypothetical notion that we could be in the same spot if Colt McCoy had been under center this season.  Both of these lines of thinking are dangerous given that Scot McCloughan will more than likely not be paying what Cousins and his agent are looking for this offseason, and there are a number of suitors who may very well break then bank to enlist the services of the Redskins signal caller.  All of this means that we will need to make Cousins feel wanted so much that he turns down $3-5 million more per year, and possibly $10-20 more in guaranteed money, to stay in Washington.  We must do this by putting away the notions that there is ambiguity in what kind of quarterback Cousins is and that we would be able to do the same thing without him.  The Redskins need Kirk Cousins because of what he has become over the last two seasons, and these accomplishments can be highlighted by debunking the two most prevalent arguments against Cousins getting a big contract here in Washington.

Argument 1: We Still Don't Know What Kind of Quarterback Kirk Cousins Is

The people who want to temper the talks of giving Cousins a large contract use this argument to obfuscate the true nature of what Cousins means to this team, and to use it to artificially manufacture dissent within HTTR nation about what Cousins should be paid this coming off season.  These people are the people who call Cousins an empty stat collector without looking at the most important stat of all.  Wins.  While the detractors look to dissect Cousins's stats to point out inconsistencies within his play they neglect that, for the first time since Brad Johnson, the Redskins have a winner at quarterback who has the temperament to perform at a high level in close games and lead meaningful drives late in the game.   Let's look at those drives over the past two seasons:

1) 10/4/15: Cousins leads a 15 play, 90 yard drive at the end of the 4th quarter to beat the Eagles
2) 10/11/15: Cousins goes 46 yards in :24 to set up a game tying field goal in Atlanta, and was a Ryan Grant slip away from leading the Redskins to score on their first possession in overtime
3) 10/25/15:  The infamous "You Like That" game.  Cousins led the biggest comeback in Redskins history, but you may have forgotten that the last touchdown was thrown to Jordan Reed that capped an 11 play, 80 yard drive in the last two minutes
4) 10/23/16: Cousins put his contract on the line as he ran in a 20 yard read option play to cap off a 9 play, 76 yard drive to take the lead.
5) 10/30/16: Cousins did all he could except kick the field goals himself to put the Redskins in position to win in a hard fought game.

These are not event counting the fact that last year he was plagued by drops against New England that may have allowed the Redskins to at least keep pace with the Patriots.  He put the redskins ahead in the third quarter of their playoff game against the Packers.  He led the Redskins into a position to go up by two scores against Dallas and threw an untimely interception.  He led the go ahead drive after halftime against the Ravens that proved to be the difference in the game.  All of this shows that Cousins has put the Redskins in a position to win more often than not, and aside from the Dallas game this season he has cleaned up the back breaking mistakes that plagued him early in his career.  This is who Kirk Cousins is.  He puts the team in a position to win.  Whatever way Cousins's stats are used to define him as a quarterback, Cousin has compiled a majority of those stats in games where the Redskins were in the thick of competition.  This leads into the second bogus argument against keeping Cousins.

Argument #2: Colt McCoy (or hypothetical replacement) could do what Cousins is doing

This statement is only bogus when looking at the long term prognostication.  In the short term it is hard to argue some of the facts.  McCoy has a limited arm, but can make short throws and is more athletic than he looks to keep defenses honest in read option.  McCoy may not have the leadership qualities that Cousins has, and Cousins can throw deep enough to keep the safeties at bay, but let's say that McCoy could be 4-3-1 right now as a starter and we let Cousins walk at the end of the season.  What then?  McCoy would only be a short term solution and we would need to look for a replacement.  We would probably want to bring in another QB in order to have Nate Sudfeld not be one hit away from being the starter, but the free agent class for 2017 looks bleak and hopefully  McCloughan is smart enough not to draft a quarterback again in 2017.  Then at the end of next season we are back at square one.  I can hear people saying, "We'll have the money to resign all of our offensive weapons if we go with McCoy next year", but do they think that Jackson and Garcon will stay after this season knowing that the next two years may be in rebuilding mode?  Both will be entering their 10th year as a pro, and they know that they may only have 3-4 good years left.  It would not be surprising if they decide to walk from uncertainty here in Washington if Cousins leaves, so McCoy would be without two huge weapons.  It is more than likely one leaves anyway if Cousins resigns to a large contract, but there is more incentive to stay if Cousins is under center.

All of this points to one conclusion.  Barring a complete meltdown from Cousins over the next eight games, the best option will be to resign Cousins to a long term contract.  Even though some have stated his average annual salary should be about $22.1 million, it is unlikely that McCloughan will go that high.  It may be that Cousins gets a higher amount of guaranteed money over a longer term contract in order to keep the per year cap hit low enough that we can resign some of our free agents, but Cousins is the only option to continue the success the Redskins have had over the last 25 games.  Cousins is a winner who has shown improvement over his time as a starter, and he has gained the respect of the players around him.  At no time in the Dan Snyder era have the Redskins had a quarterback who instilled so much confidence in his play over a longer period of time, and the Redskins need to show that they are committed to the players they have developed.  If not, get ready for the Brian Hoyer vs. Colt McCoy battle in training camp, and blog posts about how good DeSean Jackson looks in silver and black.


Saturday, October 22, 2016

Redskins vs. Lions: Dueling Quarterbacks and Playoff Implications

When the Redskins roll onto Ford Field on Sunday, they will be facing two major factors that have arisen due to their ascendance to the upper echelon of the NFC.  The first is the Kirk Cousins situation.  Cousins has played about as well as he could over the Redskins current four game win streak, but he faces a nemesis (and part time Haley Joel Osment impersonator) that he needs to vanquish with stats this week in order to keep the Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 rolling on.  Since 2010 Matt Stafford is 7th in total passing yards, 8th in touchdowns, and first in speculative contracts that may break the bank.  Cousins has not really out dueled any quarterback of note this season, but he more than likely will get his opportunity this Sunday against Stafford and he needs to deliver if he wants that long term deal at the end of the season.

The second factor the Redskins will face can be summed up in the immortal words of Jim Mora. Yes, that is correct.  In all the euphoria of the Redskins four game win streak, it has not been said enough that the Redskins currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC.  They hold a one game lead over the Rams, Eagles, Giants, and the team that will be on the other side of the ball on Sunday.  This game holds early playoff implications, as a win would improve the Redskins's conference record while putting the Lions two games behind them in the Wild Card.  The Redskins already have one loss that will come back to haunt them later in the season in some way (the loss to Dallas), so there should be a hint of playoff atmosphere against a team the Redskins have not beaten since 2008.  It will not be an easy out as the Lions look to stay in the playoff race, but here are the key aspects of the game.

The Lions Giveth, and Lions Getteth:  The Lions give just as much as they get.  Their offense is dangerously efficient as they have eight less drives than the Redskins, but average almost two points more per game.  Those stats are good enough for a scoring percentage of 44.6%, which is 7th best in the league.  They also have the second best plays per drive (6.9) and third best yards per drive (37.4) in the league, which means that their offense can move the ball for long periods of time. The problem is that their defense allows other teams to do the same.  The Lions are giving up scores on 46.6% of opponents drives, which is second worst in the league, and allowing a league worst 39.3 yards per drive.  Couple this with the Lions defense only forcing four turnovers all season and giving up a league worst 73.7% completion percentage, and Kirk Cousins should be looking to have a field day.  The key will be to keep Matt Jones involved in the run game and utilize short passes to beat the Lions at their own game.  The Redskins are right behind the Lions in scoring percentage and yards per drive, so they should be looking to exploit a Lions defense that likes to keep teams on the field. The team that wins the offensive possession and efficiency battle will have the upper hand.  If the Lions are able to score on a majority of their drives and the Redskins cannot answer, the Redskins may be forced into a pass happy offense that could get them in trouble.  The Lions, though, may be more equipped to handle a high paced game with the addition of their new superstar.

Starscream Now Leads the Decepticons:  When Calvin Johnson left after last season, the Lions were staring at an offense whose second leading receiver was Theo Riddick.  Enter Marvin Jones, who has been born again hard after leaving AJ Green's shadow in Cincinnati to become the Starscream to Johnson's Megatron, and who is leading a deceptively formidable receiving core.  Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin showed last week that the Lions have claws outside of Jones that can tear up defenses, and the Redskins should take notice.  Jones and Tate can stretch the field with their speed, and Boldin is that guy who can kill defenses on possession routes and red zone plays.  The Josh Norman Wheel of Fortune will be spinning out of control this week, and it will be up to Joe Barry to use Norman in a prudent manner to keep the Lions's hot receiver in check.  It will also be up to Barry to continue this defensive renaissance because it will be where the Redskins win or lose this game.

Defensive Pressure:  The Redskins defense has pressure on it.  The offenses this week are evenly matched, and it will come down to which defense can get the other offense of the field by any means necessary.  Turnovers may be at a premium for the Redskins defense as the Lions have only turned the ball over five times this year, but the Lions have also allowed 15 sacks.  With the absence of Theo Riddick this week, Stafford has lost one of his safety valves that may force him into longer reads.  The Redskins front seven must continue to get pressure and not force Barry to commit corners and safeties to the QB pressure cause.  If that happens we may see either Tate or Jones go for some
big gains.  It is also interesting to note that the Lions have more rushing attempts than the Redskins this season but average 20 yards less per game. The Lions still gave 19 carries last week to a combination of Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, and with the Redskins still allowing 124 yards per game on the ground, look for the Lions to feed the ball to their running backs to keep short down and distances.  If the Redskins allow the Lions to have anything more than moderate success on the ground it could be a long day for the defense as they may find themselves on the field for long periods of time.  The Redskins's front seven needs to have a big day in run stoppage and pass rush in order to take the pressure off the secondary who will have their hands full.

All of this leads to another game where the Redskins's resiliency will be tested.  The Redskins reborn running game needs to be in full effect, and they should use all three backs to keep Detroit's defense on it's heels.  Look for a healthy amount of screen passes from the Redskins as well in order to keep the pass rush at bay.  Running backs against the Lions are averaging almost 7 receptions for 49 yards a game, so don't be surprised by a big receiving day for Thompson, Jones, and Kelley.  Look for Jones to have a more rounded stat line that may be less than 100 yards rushing, but over 100 yards total offense due to receiving yards.  This game will go back and forth, but the Redskins will be able to keep the ball for longer periods of time due the Lions not being able to get off the field.  The Lions will come out running in order to negate the pas rush and lull the Redskins defense into a stupor.  Cousins, though, will lead a potent attack that will have at least one passing touchdown of over 30 yards which will break the game open.  The opportunistic defense will be able to turn the Lions over at least once, and they will win the third down plays enough to give the ball back to the offense at critical times.  The Redskins prevail, and go into Cincinnati with a five game win streak.

Redskins win 30-24

Saturday, October 8, 2016

Redskins vs. Ravens: The North Remembers

Our neighbors to the north remember. They remember the days of Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Anthony Wright, Chris Redman, Steve McNair (a 13-3 season followed by a plethora of injuries), Jeff Blake, Elvis Grbac, and Ranall Cunningham.  They remember what it is like to have a different starting quarterback almost every season, and have your Super Bowl winning quarterback not even be on the roster the next season.  That is why they gave so much money to Joe Flacco after he led them to the Super Bowl on an improbable statistical run through the playoffs, and it is why they can at least tolerate his 24-22 performance since his win in New Orleans four years ago.  Kirk Cousins is not at that level yet, but his season last year was statistically better than any season Flacco has had in his entire career.  Superior statistics are not exactly equivalent to a Lombardi Trophy (see Dan Marino), but Sunday's game against the Ravens will be a continuation of The Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 as Cousins must prove he can move the ball against a stingy defense on the road.  Cousins must make McCloughan and the Redskins front office remember what it was like to rest their laurels on the likes of John Beck, Rex Grossman, and an over the hill Mark Brunell.  It begins Sunday when the Redskins make the 45 minute drive up I-95 to face the Ravens.

Quantity vs. Quality: Quantity has a quality all it's own.  One team has lived by that mantra so far this season in having a superior number of rushing attempts, passing attempts, drives, and plays run.  Of course that team is the Ravens.  Maybe not what you were expecting, but the Ravens outpace the Redskins in all four of those categories having a higher volume of offensive output.  The problem lies in the results. The Redskins have amassed 140 more passing yards in 18 less attempts, 140 more total offensive yards in 40 less plays, and surprisingly only 5 less yards rushing on 17 less attempts.  Think about that.  As maligned as the Redskins running game has been this season, their yards per attempt (4.4) is almost a full yard better than the Ravens (3.7).  All of this means that the Redskins have been able to move the ball more efficiently than the Ravens, and they must continue to do so this weekend.  The Ravens's offense relies on running a lot of plays and getting a lot of chances to score, so forcing Flacco and the Ravens to make the most of their possessions is key.  The Redskins must continue the Matt Jones renaissance in order to keep the ball on their side, continue to score on every other possession, and continue to spread the ball around to numerous receivers in order to keep the Ravens defense off balance.  They will need to do this because the Ravens defense has quietly become one of the better defenses in the league, and the game may come down to which defensive style wins out.

Bending, Breaking, and the Forgotten Art of Forcing Punts: This game will be based more on which defense can impose it's will on the other team.  The Redskins may not have been able to stop people on a consistent basis, but they have been opportunistic.  They boast the second best turnover percentage (19.5%) in the league, and that was on full display last week against Cleveland.  They have relied on turnovers to stop drives, and they cannot pull a Carlos Rogers and drop sure interceptions or not be able to recover fumbles when they happen.  The Ravens, though, rely on turning people over through punts.  The Ravens defense has forced 26 punts this season, which is second best in the league.  They have done this by being third in the league in plays per drive (4.8) and first in the league in yards allowed per drive (21.3).  They have also forced less turnovers than the Redskins.  This means the Ravens have been able to actually stop people on defense and give the ball back to their offense.  The Ravens high volume offense relies on their defense limiting the possessions of the other team, so the Redskins must be able to sustain drives if they plan on having the bus ride home be a pleasant one.  The Redskins opportunistic offense relies on their defense giving them chances to score through forcing turnovers.  If the Redskins cannot force turnovers and have short drives it could be a long day for the Burgundy and Gold.  They must look to their MVP's so far this season to guide them through this game.

The MVP's Must Step Up: The Redskins MVP's must come to play this weekend.  It may not have dawned on anyone, but the past two weeks have seen Josh Norman have major pregame rhetorical spats with the likes of Odell Beckham and Terrelle Pryor. This week, though, Norman's nemesis is not as hot of a ticket on the heavyweight circuit.  Josh Norman vs. Mike Wallace does not move the needle as much, and maybe for the better.  Norman can now focus more on shutting down the Ravens receivers without the media trying to turn it into a soap opera type narrative.  The other MVP's have been just as well documented as Norman this season, sans the major media hype, and they must show up this weekend if the Redskins want a chance to win.  Dustin Hopkins must be on point with his kicks and convert his field goal attempts into points, and Tress Way must pin the Ravens deep when he gets the chance.

This game will be a litmus test to see where the Redskins are as a team.  The Ravens are a team with a winning record and a stingy defense that the Redskins must step up to in order to given themselves confidence that they can put themselves back atop the NFC East.  The Redskins offense must not get discouraged if they find themselves be stymied early by the Ravens defense, and having to watch the Redskins defense allow Terrance West to run all over them.  The Redskins must be committed to ball control and running Matt Jones in order to set up play action.  Watch for Flacco to take early chances deep in order to test the Redskins safeties, and look for Joe Barry to dial up all or nothing blitzes in order to try and rattle Flacco.  The Redskins will find themselves down again at the half, but their first drive of the second half goes for a score, they get a timely second half turnover, and Flacco and the Ravens squander a last minute drive.  Redskins are 3-2 going into a showdown with the Eagles next week.

Redskins Win 27-24

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Redskins vs. Browns: The Revenant Part II

rev·e·nant
ˈrevəˌnäN,-nənt
noun
  1. a person who has returned, especially supposedly from the dead.


If Alejandro Inarritu was ever thinking about making a sequel to The Revenant, he may want to consider bringing a film crew to FedEx Field on Sunday because when the Browns take the field the Redskins will be staring at two players who they thought had been left for dead.  The first needs no introduction.  Robert Griffin was supposed to have his shot at vengeance this weekend as the NFL scheduling gods bestowed their benevolence on Griffin by giving him a shot to vanquish Kirk Cousins in the very city that had forsaken him.  But Griffin did what he does best and got injured, which deprived him of a chance to stick it to the Redskins and deprived the DC Sports Media of a week long conjecture fest by asking such questions as "Did the Redskins Keep the Right QB?", "Is the Redskins Season Over if Griffin Wins", "If Griffin Wins, What Body Part Should Scot McCloughan Lose First?", "If Griffin Wins Is Jay Gruden a Retroactive Racist for Choosing Cousins Over Griffin?".  Alas, it was not meant to be, but the other revenant of the the Browns will most certainly have his name called on Sunday because of his play on the field.

Terrelle Pryor has been left for dead so many times it is hard to believe he is at the top of the Fantasy Football hype machine almost 6 years after it looked like he would go the way of Maurice Clarett.  After leaving Ohio State in 2011 because of the sports memorabilia selling scandal, Pryor's future in football was uncertain until the Raiders selected him in the Supplemental Draft in 2011.  In 2013 he would have a resurgence of his talents through the first three games, but he would miss a chance to play against RG3 and the Redskins in Week 4 of the 2013 season due to a concussion.  He would fall into obscurity again in 2014, but Pryor now finds himself in a new position playing on the same team as RG3 and coming off an historical display of offense that had Fantasy Football owners scrambling on the waiver wire this past week.  His chance to prove that last week was not an anomaly begins this week as he rides into FedEx Field as a specter from the past that must prove that the blood that runs through his veins is still warm.  It will be the Redskins' job to prove otherwise, but it may prove to be both hard and easy at the same time.  Here are the game notes:

Air Raid!!!!: The yards per completion stats on both sides of the ball, for both teams, indicate that we could see some explosive plays through the air.  The Redskins and Browns are averaging 12.8 and 13.0 yards per completion on offense (3rd and 2nd best in the league so far this season), and giving up 12.7 and 12.5 yards per completion on defense.  These stats are exacerbated by the fact that both secondaries are banged up and the Redskins have a propensity for giving up big plays.  Look for the Redskins to use a lot of spread formations and deep go routes with DeSean Jackson to try and exploit the Browns secondary.  If Pryor can get going, though, and Isaiah Crowell can continue to gain 4.7 yards every time he touches the ball it could be a long day for the defense.  The Browns will try to cause confusion in the Redskins defense by moving Pryor all over the field, and they will exploit the Redskins horrendous run defense by feeding Crowell the ball in order to open up big plays in play action and misdirection.  Don't be surprised if Ryan Kerrigan and the rest of the linebackers put on their best matador impression as they over pursue on misdirection and read option running plays that set up Cody Kessler to try and hit the deep ball.  But have no fear, the only way to stop a potent offense is through another potent offense.

The Red Zone Percentage Myth:  Maybe not a myth, but the rage about the Redskins has been their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone while overlooking the fact that they are scoring at a very high clip.  The Redskins are scoring on 51.6% of their drives (3rd best in the league), but they have only converted 21.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (2nd worst in the league).  That got me to thinking about which is more important to winning; red zone TD percentage or overall scoring percentage.  I tallied the wins and losses for the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in each category since the Redskins are in the top 10 in scoring percentage and the bottom 10 in red zone TD percentage.  Here is what I found:

Red Zone TD% Combined Records
Top 10 Teams: 13-17
Bottom 10 Teams: 17-14

Scoring% Combined Records
Top 10 Teams: 15-15
Bottom 10 Teams: 11-20

All of this means that we may want to tone down the vitriol we throw at Jay Gruden and Sean McVay about their inefficiencies in the red zone as far as it's significance to winning and losing.  The Redskins are next to last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone, yet the nine other teams that join them in the bottom ten of that list have a better combined record than the 10 teams with the best red zone percentage.  The Redskins find themselves in better company in the scoring percentage category where the Top 10 scoring percentage teams out pace the bottom 10 by a larger margin than their red zone percentage counterparts, and the top 10 scoring percentage teams even have a better overall record than the best red zone percentage teams. This shows that while the Redskins red zone play calling makes you think that Sean McVay rubs paint thinner on his clipboard before every game so he can huff the fumes while calling plays, it may be more important that the Redskins put themselves in position to score points on every other drive.  This scoring percentage will play a factor as the big plays may accrue, and drive efficiency becomes a factor.

If It Ain't Broke Don't Fix It: The one thing the Redskins have been able to do well all season is sustain drives on offense, and it will be of utmost importance to do this on Sunday.  If you add the Redskins average starting field position (32.5 yardline) to their average yardage gained per drive (39.6), it means that on average every Redskins drive should get within a 46 yard field goal range before it gets stopped.  Obviously that will not always happen, but the Browns are not very efficient having only scored on 24.3% of their drives and running 8 less plays on 6 more drives than the Redskins.  The Redskins should look to open up with long sustained drives that create any type of points to put pressure on the Browns to do the same.  If the Redskins find that they have a lead, they should look to start hitting home runs down the field to continue to pressure the Browns offense to make big plays.

The last time the Browns faced an offense as good as the Redskins the allowed the Eagles to score 29 points.  Look for the same thing to happen this week with the Redskins being able to hit their underneath routes early due to the Browns being wary of the deep ball.  Crowder, Garcon, and Reed will have big games in the beginning, and look for DeSean to open up after the first quarter.  The Browns will keep it close early, but a big pass play opens the game up for the Redskins that the Browns never recover from.  A close game, but Redskins fans should get a break from a last minute nail biter.

Redskins win 31-21

Friday, September 23, 2016

Redskins vs. Giants: Moments for Reflection

In this time of overemphasis on the dire state of affairs for the Redskins franchise, let us take a moment to reflect on the past.  It was 2007.  A confident Joe Gibbs led an aspiring Jason Campbell and an upstart Redskins team with a dubious 2-0 record to face a beleaguered 0-2 Giants at FedEx Field.  Eli Manning was entering his 3rd season as a starter, and he had shown regression from his rookie season to the point in 2007 where this game against the Redskins would make or break the season and put his future in New York in question.  Down 17-3 at halftime, things did not look good.  The Giants defense could not stop even the vanilla Gibbs 2.0 offense from putting up points on them and it seemed as if all was lost.  But lo and behold, Eli caught a spark, the Redskins do what they do best and squandered their lead in the fourth quarter, and the Giants found themselves on top 24-17 with 2:19 to go.  Jason Campbell would lead a valiant drive to the one yard line where Ladell Betts would be stopped twice in a row on runs up the middle and the Redskins turned the ball over on downs.  People would later point to that game as the turning point in the Giants season that took them from 0-2 to thwarting the Patriots perfect season in Super Bowl XLII.  Now the Redskins find themselves in a reversal of fortune almost ten years later as we reflect on the present.

The Redskins are now the 0-2 team with their future on the line as they go on the road to face a 2-0 Giants team with more statistical holes than some realize.  Redskins fans, though, have pointed to all kinds of self fulfilling prophecies as to why it is a no-brainer that the Giants will win this game:  

We have not beaten the Giants in the Meadowlands since 2009.  
We have only won there four times since 2000, and 2000 was the last time we won in East Rutherford in September.  
The Giants run defense will eat us alive.  
Josh Norman cannot cover everybody.  
Our defense cannot stop anybody.  
Kirk Cousins has become Fallout Boy again.

All of this neglects the fact that the Redskins' season has come down to one or two plays that have changed the course of their games so far.  And, as stated above, the Giants have some statistical holes that warrant further analysis and could be the key to a Redskins win.

Run the Ball, Run the Ball, Run the Ball:  No matter how futile it may seem, or how formidable the Giants front seven may be against the run, it is time for Sean McVay to look at his opponent and say running the ball is the key to this game.  You don't believe me?  Explain to me how the Giants defense has yet to force a turnover, they allow only 16 points per game, 9.1 yards per completion (best in the league), 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground (5th best in the league), and yet they allow the most plays per drive (7.1) out of any team in the league, and the second highest average time of possession per drive (3:18)?  The answer is running the ball.  Dallas ran 30 times for 101 yards, but they were also able to keep the down and distances manageable for Dak Prescott and keep their drives going.  The Saints only ran 13 times and had little offense to show for it.  If we can keep 3rd downs manageable (i.e. 6 yards or less) and commit to running the ball on first and second down, Cousins can do what he does best and throw intermediate to short routes to convert first downs. Speaking of throwing the ball:

A Possession Passing Clinic: Eli Manning is only 23rd in the league in pass attempts, yet he is first in completion percentage.  Eli's longest pass this season has only been 45 yards.  There is no doubt he will try and test Breeland and Phillips to see if they have the mettle to defend their receivers long, but it may not be an air it out type game.  If Manning can establish a short throwing game then it could open up the porous Redskins run defense even more.  With the Giants losing three fumbles last week and the Redskins defense being notorious for stripping the ball, look for the Giants to use the short passing game to set up the run and control the clock.  

Hunt With One Bullet at All Times:  A plea to the Redskins defense to seize opportunities when they come.  While Manning has thrown only one interception this year he has been sacked twice as much as Kirk Cousins on almost 20 less attempts.  Four sacks may not seem like a lot, but the Giants are not passing the ball as much so the sacks stand out more.  There may be opportunities for the Redskins to pressure Eli if he comes out throwing, and if the Redskins can stop the run it may provide more opportunities to sack Manning that they cannot give up.  The Redskins defense also missed recovering a crucial Ezekiel Elliot fumble last week that would have ended the Cowboys' go ahead drive.  This game will come down to possession, so any opportunity that the Redskins defense has to get off the field must not be squandered. 

A moment to reflect on the near future.  This game will come down to possession.  As omnipotent as the Giants defense has been made out to be, it is not without its faults especially when it comes to offenses holding on to the ball against them.  Likewise, the Redskins offense has been able to move the ball relatively well this year, but they need to capitalize on these drives with touchdowns.  I see a ball control battle where each team trades off long drives with defensive stops sprinkled in.  The Redskins get a touchdown off of a timely turnover, they sack Manning at least 3 times and hurry him all day, and they keep the Giants guessing by running and throwing out of a lot of three TE sets.

Redskins win 21-20 

Friday, August 12, 2016

Redskins vs. Falcons: The Most Important Dan Snyder Era Season Begins

Last night's preseason game against the Falcons kicked off what will be the most significant season The Redskins franchise has faced since Dan Snyder became owner.  Never before have The Redskins had an incumbent quarterback come off such a successful season without a major injury or quarterback controversy in the Dan Snyder Era.  Never before has Dan Snyder invested so much money into the quarterback position.  Never before in the Snyder era have the Redskins surrounded their quarterback with as much talent at the WR and TE position.  Finally, never in the last 15 years have we amassed as much talent on both sides of the ball to give the fan base a reasonable sense that this team could do something it has also not done since Dan Snyder took over: Have back to back winning seasons.  The quest for consecutive winning seasons means more when you figure that the Redskins have put together a team that will metaphorically, and literally, stare down the fate of this franchise over the course of the 2016 season.

The Redskins and Kirk Cousins will have their fate for the next four to five seasons hanging in the balance every week. If Gruden and Cousins can repeat the magic of last season, both may be able to continue that magic for the long term here in Washington.  If not, it could be back to the drawing board at quarterback as we have seen Scot McCloughan be stingy about a long term contract for Cousins so far.  The Redskins will literally stare down their fate as Robert Griffin will more than likely be starting for the Browns when they come to FedEx Field on October 2nd.  If that is the case then all that has been built over the last 18 months will come down to that one game.  The Redskins win and Gruden and McCloughan made the right decision going with Cousins over Griffin.  The Redskins lose and they will suffer a symbolic setback that they may not be able to recover from.  Suffice to say that this season will determine whether the Redskins can become a perennial winning team or continue their five year cycle of one amazing "no one saw that coming" playoff season followed by four years of 4-12 turmoil.  It all began with the preseason opener against the Falcons, and here are the high a low points:

If the faith that Jay Gruden has in Kirk Cousins's abilities was not apparent, it is after last night's performance.  Cousins went 5 for 5 on one drive and called it a night.  Cousins did what he was the best in the NFL at last season, which was completion percentage, and his limited playing time should give fans solace that Gruden knows that Cousins can make plays.  Kudos also go out to Ryan Grant, who made the most of his targets from Cousins and showed that he may yet have life on this crowded receiver corps, and to Rashad Ross who may be moving himself into the returner role with an impressive opening kickoff return.  Robert Kelley and Mack Brown looked like they could fight or an RB spot on the team, although they may need to showcase their talents against tougher competition.  Team awards go to the first team defense and the punt coverage team.   I think Madden 2017 may need to consider giving Tress Way that 99 rating they so graciously gave Matt Turk because the punt coverage team did an amazing job all night of covering punts, especially the first one that they downed inside the one. Following that punt, the first team defense was able to hold the Falcons from moving the ball and looked every bit of the defense we saw from last season.  Martrell Spaight made some great plays that showed he wants to make an impact after his injury from last season, Su'a Cravens showed flashes of brilliance in run support, and Trent Murphy made a case that he may not be done yet at outside linebacker.  Negatives were abound, however, and the biggest ones have to do with the running game.

Matt Jones was the darling of last year's preseason, but he did not show much in this first game.  It could be that the Redskins do not want to over work him due to last year's injuries, but all the other running backs were able to make some big plays that were lacking in Jones's performance.  If this continues do not be surprised if Chris Thompson gets the starting nod at least some point this preseason.  The running game was also a problem on the defensive side of the ball.  The defense was able to shut down the outside running lanes but they were gashed on runs between the tackles.  These runs up the middle were the backbone of the Falcons's first scoring drive, and it could become a glaring weakness considering the Redskins did not really address the DT position after the departure of Terrance Knighton.  The backup secondary looked shaky as well.  Quinton Dunbar had a long night covering former Redskin go route specialist Aldrick Robinson, and he received no help from Will Blackmon at safety.  Finally, while the punt team did it's job, the kickoff team figured that Dustin Hopkins must run a 4.3 and left it up to him to cover the kick coming out of halftime.  They found out otherwise and need to sure that up for next week.

Onward to the Jets for next week, where we should get more from the first teamers and a better idea of who should be starting at running back this season.

Friday, August 5, 2016

Katie Ledecky's Dominance Should Transcend the Pool

Katie Ledecky's dominance should transcend what she does in the pool, but somehow that narrative has not yet seeped into the mythos that Ledecky has built for herself through her outright bludgeoning of anyone who has stepped into the pool with her over the past four years.  In the prelude to the Rio Olympics, Ledecky's accomplishments have been brought to the forefront of the athletic community to the point where some have stated that she is the most dominant athlete in the world.  If you hold any skepticism towards that statement, maybe an excerpt from Dave Sheinin's article in the Washington Post about Ledecky will give you some perspective:
           
               “She’s the greatest athlete in the world today by far,” said Michael J. Joyner, an anesthesiologist and researcher for the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., specializing in human performance and physiology. “She’s dominating by the widest margin in international sport, winning by 1 or 2 percent. If [a runner] won the 10,000 meters by that wide a margin, they’d win by 100 meters. One or 2 percent in the Tour de France, over about 80 hours of racing, would be 30 or 40 minutes. It’s just absolutely remarkable.”

Yet it is this dominance that has been highlighted ad nauseam in every article written about Ledecky over the past six weeks with very little mention of what that means for her persona.  It is great to hear how hard she trains, how much she has sacrificed to be in a position to do something that has only happened once in the history of swimming at the Olympics (win gold in the 200, 400 and 800 meters), and how her stroke mechanics have changed over time.  But Ledecky's narrative should go beyond mere regurgitation of her dominance in the pool and move towards what she means for the female athletic movement as a whole.

In this time of hyper awareness of women's accomplishments and issues in athletics, Katie Ledecky should be the poster child/role model for the female athletic movement because she has become the most dominant athlete in the world solely due to her performance in the pool.  One needs to look no further that the Sports Illustrated Cover for the Rio Olympics to see that symbolically she has reached this pinnacle.  Ledecky is in the forefront right next to Michael Phelps and in front of everyone else including Kevin Durant.  Ledecky didn't do this by wearing ostentatious outfits, or appearing in a Beyonce video, or posing in ESPN's Body Issue, or partaking in a national endorsement campaign, or making outrageous posts on social media.  She is on this cover because of what she has done in her respective sport.  This is not to demonize female athletes for partaking in any of the aforementioned mediums, but it sends the message to young female athlete's that they cannot succeed based on their performance alone.  There has been no Tim Duncan in female athletics; until now.

Katie Ledecky's accomplishments have made her the most dominant athlete in the world, and it should make her a beacon for all young female athletes who wish to pursue their craft.  It may be hard to get that message out considering that she turned down millions in endorsement deals to swim at Stanford, but that should also go to perpetuate what she means to the athletic community as a whole.  Katie Ledecky is the antithesis of what we expect from high profile athletes, and that message should especially resonate with young female athletes. The young female athlete of today should see Katie Ledecky and realize that they do not need to objectify themselves, that they can choose an education over millions of dollars, they can be outwardly humble and internally competitive, that they do not have to be omnipresent on social media, and that they can be recognized as an athlete first and a celebrity second.  When Katie Ledecky steps up on the blocks this coming week, people will know that she is not up there for money, endorsements, or personal exposure.  She may be the first major athlete in a long time that is up there for the love of the sport and the thrill of competition. That, more than her training and ability, is what should make Katie Ledecky's dominance transcend the pool and make her a role model for all young female athletes.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

The Josh Norman Signing May Have Big Consequences

Just when you thought that the Redskins have reformed their ways and they will act more prudent in the free agent market, the major free agents come knocking like some old girlfriend who knows she will at least be let in the door and the Redskins are all too happy to oblige.  Two years ago it was DeSean Jackson.  While people were skeptical about that signing this team would be in a very different spot without him and his contract did not break the bank.  Last year it was Junior Galette. Galette still needs to prove himself after his season ending injury but the Redskins got him at a big discount.  So if Galette can produce anything it will be a win for Scot McCloughan.  The signing of Josh Norman, though, is different.  Norman is being brought in to be the man and he is being paid as such.  His 5 year, $75 million contract makes him one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the league, and he is being brought in on a whirlwind courtship that began roughly 48 hours after Carolina decided to rescind the franchise tag on him.  To top it all off, the Norman signing used up eight of the eleven million dollars in cap space the Redskins had for this season.

This is vintage Redskins free agency; get the best guy for a lot of money no matter the repercussions. There was no way Norman was leaving Ashburn without a contract, and it was the right move to make, but it is the repercussions that need to be examined because this signing leaves the Redskins with very little room to maneuver within the Salary Cap.  The makeup of the Redskins roster and draft board will be shaken up by this signing, and the fallout from these changes may give the Redskins Brass a better negotiating position come next Spring.  Let's look at what could happen in the next few days leading up to the Draft:

1) Gacron and/or Jackson are all but gone.  I hate to say this, but it makes the most financial sense.  Either Jackson, Garcon, or both will not be playing for the Redskins come September.  Both are free agents at the end of next season anyway, and cutting Garcon alone will free up $8 million in cap space.  Jackson will only account for $6 million if he is let go.  It will be a hard decision because the Redskins need to weigh Jackson's deep threat ability with Garcon's toughness in the red zone and leadership qualities.  Whichever receiver is let go, look for any combination of Perry Riley, Logan Paulsen, and Chris Baker to follow them out the door as they are also slated to be UFA's at the end of the 2016 season and cutting them can add more cap space for the Redskins.

2) The Redskins will not be trading for more picks.  That is unless they can free up cap space by cutting players.  The projected cap hit (scroll down to the very bottom for the draft pick cap cost) for the Redskins current draft picks is $5.6 million, and if you factor those players into the Redskins current cap situation the Redskins are about $7 million over the cap.  McCloughan simply cannot afford to sign the 11-12 players he wants to draft unless he makes massive roster changes and restructures.  If there are not massive cuts made before Thursday, look for the Redskins to stand pat.

3) The Redskins will take at least two WR's in the draft, and one of them will be in the first three rounds.  This will be especially true if Garcon and Jackson are let go.  Even if they are not, it is hard to foresee Garcon and Jackson both being on this roster after this season due to the impending expiration of the contracts of Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed after this season.  The Redskins need to be thinking long term especially with Cousins's contract looming.  Speaking of quarterbacks.......

4) Do not be surprised if the Redskins draft a quarterback before the fifth round.  I sincerely hope this is not the case, but it will not be surprising given the circumstances.  The Redskins only have two quarterbacks on the roster for next season; one of whom is on a lucrative, yet tentative, one year contract and another who looks to be a backup for the remainder of his NFL tenure.  The Redskins may decide to draft an insurance policy that they could go forward with if the Cousins situation cannot be resolved by the end of next season, and the Norman signing has put Cousins contract negotiations in a precarious position.

5) The Norman Signing puts Kirk Cousins in a Catch-22.  Whether intentionally or unintentionally, the Redskins front office has put Kirk Cousins in a position where the only outcome will be the Redskins offering him less money again whenever they decide to sit down and negotiate.  Lost in the drunken celebration of the Josh Norman signing is the nugget that he will count $20 million against the cap next year.  The Redskins were skiddish about giving Cousins a long term $20 million per year contract before this signing, and now they will be even more leery of opening up the checkbook due to the sizable amount of money that Norman will be receiving next year.  The Catch-22 comes from the fact that there is nothing that Cousins's play can do to stop this low balling from happening.  Let's assume that the Redskins cut either Jackson or Garcon, and Cousins has a monster season throwing to the one that stays and Jordan Reed.  Reed and Jackson/Garcon's contract will be up at the end of the season, and it is not far fetched to think that the Redskins will low ball Cousins under the guise of The Redskins needing to resign the parts that made him successful.  If Cousins's play is mediocre then that alone will justify the Redskins throwing a low ball offer at Cousins, especially if they draft a quarterback who they think could do just as well for less money in the short term.  If the low ball offers come at the end of next season, it could be that Cousins decides to fly his bombing missions for someone else, and a big part of that could be due to the money they paid Norman putting a stangle hold on the salary cap.

The Redskins made the right move in signing Josh Norman, but the after effects of this signing will be felt for years to come.  It is up to McCloughan, and the Redskins front office, to make prudent decisions that will allow this team to operate within the salary cap.  That could mean that one or more of the above situations may happen, all because of the Redskins doing what they do best winning the offseason championship.


Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Redskins Draft Special

There are very few events that get their own countdown on ESPN.com.  The NFL draft is one of those events, and while the NFL has bastardized the Draft by spreading it out over multiple days it is still pegged as one of the premier prognosticating events for sports analysts.  With the Redskins publicly stating that they want to acquire four more picks than they have already, Mel Kiper may need to bring an extra can of pomade to keep his hair down trying to analyze the Redskins draft moves.  But trades are too complex to try and predict when they will happen, how they will happen, and with which of the other 31 teams the Redskins will deal with, so let's analyze the draft as if the Redskins will not trade any of their picks.  Here are the players SweetDCSports believes the Redskins should take at each position if the player is available, and not counting if they decide to trade out of that position.

Note: All scouting information came from CBS Sports and NFL Combine Results Page.  I used the projected rankings at each position on the CBS site to determine who would possibly be available in each round.  For example, If CBS projected someone to go in the 3rd round then I did not factor them being available to the Redskins in the 4th round.  Enjoy.

Round 1 (21st Overall Selection):  Andrew Billings    DT    (Baylor)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 311 lbs   40 yd: 5.05   Bench Press: 31 reps

The Redskins need to think long term at nose tackle after the departure of Terrance Knighton and Billings seems to be the right guy for the job.  His freakish strength allows him to overpower lineman, and he has a quick first step that allows him to elude his initial blocker.  Known for his closing speed and elite run stopping ability, Billings was also able to have his best pass rushing season in 2015 with 5.5 sacks.  He also fits the frame of a McCloughan type player: high motor, violent playmaker, durable (played 86 of 90 snaps against Oklahoma).  His shortcomings are that he has been noted to give up on plays if his initial rush proves unsuccessful, and he has trouble changing direction if the play gets past him.  He is also young.  He left Baylor after his true Junior year and he just turned 21 years old.  There may be concerns about his youth and how well he will acclimate to NFL life, but with Chris Baker and Kedric Golston in the locker room he would have great role models to help him out.

Billings would give the Redskins a nasty presence inside that will open up pass rush lanes for guys like Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Galette, and Preston Smith.  He also adds quickness in the middle of the line that will improve the line's ability to close in on running backs at the point of attack.  I think he is a much better fit for the Redskins than Jarran Reed and Sheldon Rankins, and if Billings is off the board before the Redskins are up look for McCloughan to trade down and possibly take Vernon Butler in the second round.  If Billings is available, though, I cannot see McCloughan passing on him due to the Redskins need for a true nose tackle to anchor the defensive line.


Round 2 (53rd Overall Selection):  Keanu Neal    Safety   (Florida)
Height: 6'0"   Weight: 211 lbs   40 yd: 4.62   Vertical: 38"

It maybe unrealistic to think that Keanu Neal falls to the Redskins at the 53rd pick. This could be a scenario where the Redskins trade down from their first round pick to put themselves in a position to get one of the higher ranked safeties, but Keanu Neal has to be the one the Redskins are looking at for their second round pick.  The Redskins are coming into the 2016 season with only four safeties total on their roster, and Neal provides a flexible luxury of having played both strong and free safety at Florida. While his 2015 stats do not pop out at you (83 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) maybe his highlight tape will show you why the Redskins should take him.  Scouts note that he is an enforcer that likes to bring the wood, which is evident in a lot of the hits he lays in this video.  It is concerning that half of the hits involve Neal dropping his shoulder and not wrapping up on tackles in space that will not fly in the NFL, but he shows the ability to be at least a serviceable strong safety. He also shows the ability to cover a wide range of field and he shows a knack for getting to the ball.  Finally, his size is second to none and he is characterized as a high motor guy who rarely fatigues.

Think of what the Redskins could do with a guy who can be interchanged at the safety positions, someone who can bring a physical presence on the edges of the defense, and run down wide receivers and running backs in the open field and make them pay with big hits.  Keanu Neal brings that type of presence to a secondary that was beleaguered at times in 2015.  His 6'0", 211 pound, long armed frame means he can match up with NFL wide receivers, and he boasts one of the best vertical jumps for safeties at the combine this year.  If he is available at 53 the Redskins would be crazy to pass on him, and I think he is a safer choice than Karl Joseph of West Virgina due to Jospeh's knee injury sidelining him since October.  McCloughan has to use an early pick to upgrade the safety position and Keanu Neal will be the best pick for the Redskins if they can get him.

Round 3 (84th Overall Selection):  Jerald Hawkins    OT   (LSU)
Height: 6'6"   Weight: 305 lbs   40 yd: 5.23   Bench Press: 23 reps

Hawkins possesses a lot of the attributes that you would want in a third round offensive tackle.  He has a season's worth of experience at both right an left tackle against SEC competition.  Hawkins's footwork allows him to get to his spots quickly, and his lateral movement gives him strengths in defending against speed pass rushers and opportunistic run defenders.  He has long arms that give him an imposing frame and he is quick off the snap, which allows him to set his blocks with a strong grip and hand placement.  And the knocks on him are even more promising.  Scouts have said that he lacks the proper strength to operate in the run game and to sustain blocks past the first level of run support.  Strength can be acquired through training and proper motivation.  The other minus against Hawkins in that his physical frame is too narrow and that there is limited potential for strength growth.  But as Yoda once said "Size matters not....Judge me by my size, do you?".

Hawkins's footwork and experience more than make up for his lack of elite level strength, and he would have time to develop his strength considering that he would not need to start right away.  The Redskins go into the 2016 season with only three true offesnive tackles, and Hawkins provides the luxury of having played both tackle positions at an elite level.  While Joe Haeg (North Dakota State) may provide better quickness, and John Theus (Georgia) may have slightly more experience, Jerald Hawkins can provide both with limitations that can easily be remedied.  McCloughan needs to start thinking about how to restock depth on the offensive line and Hawkins seems like a perfect fit for the Skins in the third round

Round 4 (120th Overall Selection):  Eric Murray    DB   (Minnesota)
Height: 5'11"   Weight: 199 lbs   40 yd: 4.49   Vertical: 39.5"

It may be tempting for McCloughan to take a running back at this position, but Murray seems to be a more solid pick than the projected fourth round running backs.  The Redskins need to add some depth at the corner position with Culliver coming off an injury riddled 2015 season, and Murray fits the bill of the players McCloughan is trying to recruit.  A three year starter at Minnesota, Murray was also named team captain his senior year and was lauded for his commitment on and off the field.  Murray is well versed in multiple coverage schemes, and while he only amassed two interceptions over his college career he was also able to break up 24 passes.  Scouts note Murray's superior coverage techniques as a byproduct of his penchant for watching film and diagnosing routes.  Murray also brings tenacity when stopping the run, where he consistently fights through blocks to bring the ball carrier down.  He does run a bit small at 5'11", and scouts note his lack of hip quickness when breaking out of his back pedal which may lead to Murray getting beat by vertical routes at the pro-level.  Murray, though, brings a huge upside of leadership, experience, confidence, and consistency that McCloughan has seemed to covet in his draft picks.

This is an area where if the Redskins trade down they could have their cake and eat it too.  Alex Collins, running back out of Arkansas, looks intriguing in this area as well, and if the Redskins are able to trade down and get extra picks in the fourth round we may see the Redskins select a CB and RB.  If the Redskins decide to stand pat, though, or only possess one pick in the fourth round it has to be Murray if he is available.  He possesses too much football IQ and versatility, Murray started 13 games on special teams his freshman year where he blocked two kicks, for the Redskins to pass him up.  Murray would add a wealth of experience and leadership to the Redskins secondary, and give them depth at a position that was hampered by injuries in 2015.

Round 5 (158th Overall Selection):  Willie Beavers   OT   (Western Michigan)
Height: 6'4"   Weight: 324 lbs   40 yd: 5.28   Bench Press: 20 reps

Depth at offensive tackle is a major area of need that the Redskins have, and they need to think about taking more than one in the 2016 Draft.  The Redskins would find themselves in a fortuitous position if Beavers was waiting for them at the 158th pick.  Do not let where he played turn you off.  Beavers possesses great quickness that allows him to set his blocks early and get down the field on runs and screen plays.  He has shown the ability to hold his block for as long as he can, and he does not quit when he initially gets beat off of the line.  Scouts note his ability to process defensive stunts and blitzes and react to them before they can cause havoc.  Finally, Beavers possesses the experience that McCloughan prefers in his selections.  Beavers is a redshirt senior who started 40 games at left tackle for the Broncos, and scouts at the Combine noted that he has the ability to play all over the offensive line given proper coaching.

The coaching part is where Bill Callahan will have to work his magic.  Beavers's weakness comes from his overly aggressive style of play.  He tends to get himself out of position because he is too gung ho in trying to set his blocks when the defenders are being more tentative and not coming right at him.  Callahan is the man for the job, though, and Beavers could blossom into a serviceable backup tackle for his first few NFL seasons.  With Beavers and Hawkins, the Redskins would have a viable insurance plan if Morgan Moses or Trent Williams goes down without having to force Kory Lichtensteiger to move away from Center where he has found a career renaissance.  Beavers could, emphasis on could, also become a viable option going forward as Trent Williams continues to get older.  His positional versatility, wealth of experience, and physical attributes would be a steal at this pick so do not be surprised if the Redskins take him earlier if they find trade partners to gain picks in the late fourth or earlier fifth round.

Round 6 (187th Overall Selection):  Darius Jackson   RB   (Eastern Michigan)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 220 lbs   40 yd: 4.35   Vertical: 41"   Broad Jump: 133"

There is nothing wrong with your screen. You are reading those numbers above correctly.  Jackson posted those numbers at Michigan's Pro Day because he was not invited to the NFL Combine. Fairly impressive for a guy his size considering his vertical jump would have been the eighth best ever by an RB at the Combine and his broad jump would be tied for fifth.  The reason Jackson may not be getting more national hype is because he only had one full season as a starting running back. That was this past season as a senior where he was able to gain 1078 yards and score 14 TD's, but most of that was against MAC competition and most of his runs came out of read option shotgun formations.  The low level of competition that he faced coupled with the scheme that he played in at Eastern Michigan may have devalued his draft status, but his highlight reel shows his top level speed and above average pass catching ability.  Jackson also shows that he can make people miss in the open field and can pass block when given the opportunity.

With Alfred Morris leaving this off season, the Redskins need to think about adding depth to this position.  Jackson's workout numbers may make some teams take him earlier than his projected 6th round status, and one of those teams should be the Redskins if they get the chance.  Jackson's coaches at Eastern Michigan stated that he is one of their best practice players, and he would be a perfect hybrid of size and speed to compliment Matt Jones and Chris Thompson.  Jackson should be a target for the Redskins, and if he is still available in the 6th round with the Redskins still not having picked a running back, McCloughan should give Jackson the call to move to DC.

Round 7 (232nd Overall Selection):  Ricardo Louis   WR   (Auburn)
Height: 6'2"   Weight: 215 lbs   40 yd: 4.43   Vertical: 38"   Bench Press: 18 reps

If Rich Tandler's proposed dilemma goes in Laquon Treadwell's favor, the Redskins may not give Ricardo Louis the time of day in the seventh round if he is still there.  But the Redskins have more urgent needs in other positions, and Ricardo Louis would be a decent pick for the Redskins at the end of the Draft.  Louis is the receiver who caught "The Prayer at Jordan-Hare" two years ago, and he has since developed himself into a serviceable wide out.  Louis saw an increased work load after Duke Williams was dismissed from Auburn this season, and Louis took advantage by catching 46 passes for 716 yards and three touchdowns.  He also was able to rush for 158 yards and score one rushing touchdown.  Louis is touted as a great YAC receiver that uses his speed off the line and physical size to get separation and make tough catches on the sideline.  He is also agile in space and is not afraid of being physical at the end of his runs.  He was also one of the top wide receivers at the combine in the 40, vertical jump, and bench press.  The reason he is not rated higher is due to major concerns about his catching ability.  Louis is noted as dropping easy passes due to loss of focus, and there are added concerns that Auburn's scheme allowed Louis to exploit coverages more so than his physical attributes.

Let's see. Big, physical receiver that is good after the catch and can use his size to be physical with defenders.  Good thing the Redskins don't already have a receiver like that with a $10M cap hit turning 30 this year.  Oh, wait.  Not only will Pierre Garcon be turning 30 and be without a contract next year, DeSean Jackson will also be meeting all of those criteria at the end of the 2016 season as well.  Louis would be a low risk, high reward pick that can take at least one season to try and get his shortcomings in order while not being asked to do much on the field.  Louis sounds like he could fill Garcon's spot if he were not to be retained, or be a welcome compliment if Garcon were to stay.  The Redskins should be looking at a receiver, but I hope it is later in the draft and they give Ricardo Louis a look.

Round 7 (242nd Overall Selection):  Darrell Greene   OG   (San Diego State)
Height: 6'3"   Weight: 321 lbs   40 yd: 5.20   Bench Press: 28 reps

This would not be just a nostalgic pick, but somewhere deep down you know that Dan Snyder wants this guy on our team simply because of his name.  Darrell Greene is a red shirt senior from San Diego State who started 25 straight games for the Aztecs until he was suspended for the first six games of the 2015 season due to a positive marijuana test.  Greene started the final seven games in 2015, but the damage had been done to his draft status.  While this aspect of his college career may not mesh with what McCloughan is trying to build with this team, Greene's play on the field seems to be right up his alley.  Greene utilizes his quick footwork and mean disposition to overpower defenders and get to the second level on run plays.  Greene has shown the ability to be a good pulling guard due to his above average footwork, and he has been noted as being a solid pass protector.  Marijuana aside, Greene does have limitations in his game that have given scouts pause on picking him too high.  His short arms have allowed longer armed defenders to outwork him at times and force him out of position, which he is something he will have to deal with on a more regular basis in the NFL.  His blitz pickup and blocking on the move has been called into question, as well, but the big red flag for McCloughan will probably be the drug test.

Greene passes the McCloughan on the field criteria.  An offensive lineman that plays to the whistle and overpowers his opponents with his strength and determination.  Hopefully, the Redskins do their job and look into the drugs allegations, but this should be someone whom the Redskins peg as a huge value pick if he is still available at the end of the draft.  The Redskins running game took a big hit last year when people became injured and they had to rearrange the offensive line.  Greene would add depth to this position, and he would also be someone the Redskins could develop over time.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Ovi's 50 Needs to Make History for All

Alex Ovechkin put himself in exclusive company against the Blues on Saturday night.  His hat trick all but assured his fourth consecutive, and sixth overall, Rocket Richard Trophy.  Granted, this trophy only came into existence in 1998, but since that time no other player has won it more than twice.  Ovechkin is now the third player in NHL history to score 50 goals seven or more times (Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky did it 9 times).  He is the first player in NHL history to score 50 or more goals in three consecutive seasons twice (2007-2010 and 2013-2016), but this seems less of an achievement when you realize that Gretzky had eight consecutive 50 plus seasons and Bossy's nine 50 goal seasons were consecutive as well.  What people need to be focusing on is the age at which Ovechkin is accomplishing these feats, for both good and bad reasons, and what history we want Ovechkin to be making as Capitals fans.

Although Gretzky and Bossy never had a lull in their 50 goal scoring seasons, Ovechkin has now outpaced them in terms of longevity.  Both Bossy and Gretzky saw their last 50 goal season come before age 30 (Gretzky at 28 and Bossy at 29).  Ovechkin has become only the 9th player in NHL history to score 50 goals at age 30 or older and the first to do so since Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006.  If you believe the notion that goal scoring is harder to come by these days, Ovechkin's 50 goals this season looks even more impressive since two of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history could not get 50 after 30 in an inferior defensive era.  But the "different era" argument is for those who wish to argue ad nauseam about the greatest of all time without really wanting to come to a consensus.  Ovechkin's goal scoring longevity will never surpass what made Bossy and Gretzky great, and Ovechkin is running out of time to achieve this in order to make him live eternally in the annals of NHL lore.

It may not have occurred to Capitals fans, but Ovechkin has yet to even play for a Stanley Cup.  That puts him on the short list with Jonathan Cheechoo, that is his real name, as being the only Rocket Richard winners to never have played in a Stanley Cup Final.  That takes a little bit of luster off of his 50 goal seasons when you realize that all other great goal scorers of this era were at least able to get their teams in position to win a championship, and most of them were able to scale the mountain top.  It is also sobering to know that only three players 30 or older have been able to score 50 goals and win a Stanley Cup in the same season.  They are Joe Sakic with the Avalanche in 2001, Joe Mullen with the Flames in 1989, and Phil Esposito with the Bruins in 1972.  All of this means that Ovechkin's time is running out, and remember that Father Time is undefeated.  While Ovechkin's 50 goals are an individual milestone it is the team's success that will put him into the stratosphere of NHL greats, and Ovechkin is playing with the best overall team of his career.  If Ovehckin cannot win it this year the future looks hazy, at best, as to what type of supporting cast he will have in his continued push for collective greatness. It is more than likely that we may see the departure of Jason Chimera and Dmitri Orlov this offseason, and what will Brian MacLellan do when  T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and Nate Schmidt are all looking for more money after the 2017 season?  If Ovechkin is to attain true greatness he will need to do what he did on Saturday night and lead the only NHL team he has ever known to their first Stanley Cup Championship.  If he does not, maybe he will donate all of his Rocket Richard Trophies to the Verizon Center so we can put them on display.

Please check out Jewels from the Crown where all of the goal scoring info was found.


Thursday, March 31, 2016

Maryland's Most Important Piece May Not Stay

If Melo Trimble, Diamond Stone, and Robert Carter are smart they will stay at Maryland one more year.  According to Chad Ford's rankings on ESPN.com Melo and Carter are outside of the Top 50 prospects (Melo is #51 and Carter is #59), which means that they have a good shot at not being drafted if they decide to leave Maryland.  Stone is #18 in these rankings, which means he would probably get drafted somewhere in 2016, but someone at Maryland needs to show him what Jordan Williams is doing right now and it may make him think twice.  If all of them came back, though, they would all have a chance to increase their draft status by increasing their individual and team success.  Melo would finally have some backcourt depth to give him more rest during the game with the addition of freshman PG Anthony Cowan and SG Kevin Huerter.  Carter can have more exposure by not having to share minutes with Jake Layman, and by looking at Robert Carter's freshman year picture at Georgia Tech you would have to assume that he would put in the work to improve even more for next year.  Finally, Stone would get one more year to improve his rebounding ability and prove that he is a Top 10 pick with Melo and Carter helping him out in that capacity.  Finally, if all three came back Maryland would once again be a preseason Top 5 team with experience, and the shared team success they could generate in 2016-2017 would raise all ships come next year's draft.  But for all this short term prognosticating about whether or not these three will stay, Maryland should be looking at some telling portents about another member of the Terps that point to him leaving this program in the future.

Unless the Terps make at least one Final Four appearance within the next three years, Mark Turgeon may decide not to stay in College Park past his initial contract.  It has been apparent in some of Turgeon's press conferences this season that he seems tired.  Not that pissed off tired that comes from a losing streak, which the Terps suffered late in the season, but that dejected tired that comes from something missing in his personal life. This conjecture comes from a nugget that he gave in his press conference before the Kansas game.  Around the 6:00 mark Turgeon is asked about his time at Wichita State, and he professed his love for the city of Wichita stating that his wife loves the city and it was where his kids were born.  Then there is this Washington Post article by Kent Babb from June that outlines Turgeon's internal battle between his professional success and his personal life.  The article describes how coaching four teams in 17 years has made Turgeon miss special moments in his kids' lives and it has moved him to tears at times.  Finally, remember that Turgeon had a ton of family members come out to see the Terps play at Nebraska because Lincoln is a central point for most of his family that lives in Kansas and Iowa.  All of this points to Turgeon possibly not enjoying living in this area, and not enjoying the sacrifices he makes for the Maryland program if the returns are not going to be there in the future.

Turgeon is a competitor first.  He wants to win on the court more than anything, which is why he probably will not voluntarily leave for any job other than Kansas until he wins a championship here at Maryland.  But the Kent Babb article talks about Turgeon's honesty being his best quality as a coach, recruiter, and father.  Turgeon has three years left on his contract here at Maryland, and if there is no Final Four in that time then Turgeon may have to be honest with himself about what is best for him and his family.  His statements about Wichita and his tired press conferences hint that living in this area may be taking a larger toll on him that he expected.  He sees that his family is mostly located in the Midwest where he spent most of his life, and as his kids get older he may realize that it is not worth it to put himself and his family through the grind of trying to win at Maryland.  All of this can be assuaged by a Final Four appearance before his contract is up in 2019.  If that does not come, it is possible that Turgeon's personal life wins out over his desire for professional success and he walks away from the University of Maryland.

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

How Elitely Sweet It Is For The Terps

Savor the moment Terps fans.  This past weekend the Terps were able to beat two formidable, yet slightly over matched, teams to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since Steve Blake was at the helm.  They also were able to make this the twelfth straight NCAA tournament where they have won at least one game, which does not seem like much until you realize that the only team that has a longer streak is North Carolina at 14.  As good as it feels to revel in nostalgia, the Terps have a daunting task ahead of them if they are going to make College Park party like it is 2001.  The Final Four is a long way away given the three teams the Terps must face to get there, so let's start by analyzing the first team standing in Maryland's path because there is a good chance the Terps will not live past them.

Kansas: A bitter sweet draw for Mark Turgeon as he will face his alma mater for the first time as the Terps' signal caller.  The Jayhawks will be the toughest opponent the Terps have faced this tournament, and maybe all season, but the Terps will be Kansas's biggest challenge so far in the tournament as well.  It could prove to be a high flying game, and the Terps need to be on to keep pace.

The Bad News: Maybe you haven't heard, but Kansas is the top ranked team in the tournament and for good reason.  The Jayhawks like to play a patented Big 12 brand of basketball that involves taking and giving up a lot of shots.  The problem for the Terps is that they make a lot of the ones that they take and they defend a lot of the ones that they give up.  Kansas's regular season FG% was fifth in the nation at 49.6%, and they only gave up 39.7% to opponents.  Couple those numbers with a high assist rate, a savvy senior leader in Perry Ellis, and an 82 point per game average and you get a recipe for disaster for the Terps.  The Terps will be forced to move on defense against a team that can draw their forwards out of the paint with Ellis's range as a shooter, and with Maryland giving up a ton of offensive rebounds against Hawaii the Jawhawks should be licking their chops at the prospect of second chance points.  Kansas's quantity approach to offensive execution could lead to a massive point differential if Maryland is soft again underneath, and if they allow Kansas's defensive style to get to them.  Kansas takes intensity to the defensive end, where they are relentless on the ball defenders and like to clog the passing lanes.  The Terps do not do well against high pressure defensive teams, and Maryland will be susceptible to quick point swings if they are their normal turnover prone selves.  But as stated above the Terps present a unique challenge to Bill Self and the Jayhawks that they have not faced yet in this tournament.

The Good News: Kansas's flaws play right into Maryland's style of play.  The Terps shot 77% from the free throw line during the regular season, and while they strayed away from getting to the line late in the season they got back there with a vengeance in the first two rounds.  Kansas is all too eager to put their opponents on the charity stripe as their opponents average 21 free throws per game.  If Maryland can fill that average it may slow the game down enough for Kansas to get out of rhythm, and if the Terps can hit on their season average it may offset Kansas's ability to stymie Maryland's field goal accuracy.  While Kansas's defense is in your face, their losses have come from teams that are able to match their energy level.  Melo can get into the lane and distribute with the best of them, and the Terps proved that they can keep pace in a track meet with their game against UNC.  Granted the Terps lost that game, but hopefully they have learned something going through the Big 10 schedule.  Finally, the Terps's size in the front court will give the Jayhawks fits.  Carter and Layman can provide their own brand of inside/outside game to counter balance Ellis, and they both should be looking to drive the lane and draw contact.  Stone needs to prove his worth on the rebounding end, and Damonte Dodd will prove to be a tough defensive mathcup for Ellis.  Kansas has yet to see a team like this in the tournament, and if the Terps can start to hit on threes it could be an interesting day in Louisville.

Maryland wins if they can shoot over 25% from three, get 20 or more free throw attempts, and limit the Jayhawks to under 55 field goal attempts.  Maryland loses if they allow Kansas to be +10 or better in the rebounding margin, they have over 13 turnovers, and they allow Kansas to shoot over 20% from three.  Here's hoping the Terps are able to do the latter and stay in Kentucky for two more days.