Redskins vs. Browns: The Revenant Part II

rev·e·nant

ˈrevəˌnäN,-nənt

noun

1. a person who has returned, especially supposedly from the dead.

If Alejandro Inarritu was ever thinking about making a sequel to The Revenant, he may want to consider bringing a film crew to FedEx Field on Sunday because when the Browns take the field the Redskins will be staring at two players who they thought had been left for dead.  The first needs no introduction.  Robert Griffin was supposed to have his shot at vengeance this weekend as the NFL scheduling gods bestowed their benevolence on Griffin by giving him a shot to vanquish Kirk Cousins in the very city that had forsaken him.  But Griffin did what he does best and got injured, which deprived him of a chance to stick it to the Redskins and deprived the DC Sports Media of a week long conjecture fest by asking such questions as "Did the Redskins Keep the Right QB?", "Is the Redskins Season Over if Griffin Wins", "If Griffin Wins, What Body Part Should Scot McCloughan Lose First?", "If Griffin Wins Is Jay Gruden a Retroactive Racist for Choosing Cousins Over Griffin?".  Alas, it was not meant to be, but the other revenant of the the Browns will most certainly have his name called on Sunday because of his play on the field.

Terrelle Pryor has been left for dead so many times it is hard to believe he is at the top of the Fantasy Football hype machine almost 6 years after it looked like he would go the way of Maurice Clarett.  After leaving Ohio State in 2011 because of the sports memorabilia selling scandal, Pryor's future in football was uncertain until the Raiders selected him in the Supplemental Draft in 2011.  In 2013 he would have a resurgence of his talents through the first three games, but he would miss a chance to play against RG3 and the Redskins in Week 4 of the 2013 season due to a concussion.  He would fall into obscurity again in 2014, but Pryor now finds himself in a new position playing on the same team as RG3 and coming off an historical display of offense that had Fantasy Football owners scrambling on the waiver wire this past week.  His chance to prove that last week was not an anomaly begins this week as he rides into FedEx Field as a specter from the past that must prove that the blood that runs through his veins is still warm.  It will be the Redskins' job to prove otherwise, but it may prove to be both hard and easy at the same time.  Here are the game notes:

Air Raid!!!!: The yards per completion stats on both sides of the ball, for both teams, indicate that we could see some explosive plays through the air.  The Redskins and Browns are averaging 12.8 and 13.0 yards per completion on offense (3rd and 2nd best in the league so far this season), and giving up 12.7 and 12.5 yards per completion on defense.  These stats are exacerbated by the fact that both secondaries are banged up and the Redskins have a propensity for giving up big plays.  Look for the Redskins to use a lot of spread formations and deep go routes with DeSean Jackson to try and exploit the Browns secondary.  If Pryor can get going, though, and Isaiah Crowell can continue to gain 4.7 yards every time he touches the ball it could be a long day for the defense.  The Browns will try to cause confusion in the Redskins defense by moving Pryor all over the field, and they will exploit the Redskins horrendous run defense by feeding Crowell the ball in order to open up big plays in play action and misdirection.  Don't be surprised if Ryan Kerrigan and the rest of the linebackers put on their best matador impression as they over pursue on misdirection and read option running plays that set up Cody Kessler to try and hit the deep ball.  But have no fear, the only way to stop a potent offense is through another potent offense.

The Red Zone Percentage Myth:  Maybe not a myth, but the rage about the Redskins has been their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone while overlooking the fact that they are scoring at a very high clip.  The Redskins are scoring on 51.6% of their drives (3rd best in the league), but they have only converted 21.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (2nd worst in the league).  That got me to thinking about which is more important to winning; red zone TD percentage or overall scoring percentage.  I tallied the wins and losses for the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in each category since the Redskins are in the top 10 in scoring percentage and the bottom 10 in red zone TD percentage.  Here is what I found:

Red Zone TD% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 13-17

Bottom 10 Teams: 17-14

Scoring% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 15-15

Bottom 10 Teams: 11-20

All of this means that we may want to tone down the vitriol we throw at Jay Gruden and Sean McVay about their inefficiencies in the red zone as far as it's significance to winning and losing.  The Redskins are next to last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone, yet the nine other teams that join them in the bottom ten of that list have a better combined record than the 10 teams with the best red zone percentage.  The Redskins find themselves in better company in the scoring percentage category where the Top 10 scoring percentage teams out pace the bottom 10 by a larger margin than their red zone percentage counterparts, and the top 10 scoring percentage teams even have a better overall record than the best red zone percentage teams. This shows that while the Redskins red zone play calling makes you think that Sean McVay rubs paint thinner on his clipboard before every game so he can huff the fumes while calling plays, it may be more important that the Redskins put themselves in position to score points on every other drive.  This scoring percentage will play a factor as the big plays may accrue, and drive efficiency becomes a factor.

If It Ain't Broke Don't Fix It: The one thing the Redskins have been able to do well all season is sustain drives on offense, and it will be of utmost importance to do this on Sunday.  If you add the Redskins average starting field position (32.5 yardline) to their average yardage gained per drive (39.6), it means that on average every Redskins drive should get within a 46 yard field goal range before it gets stopped.  Obviously that will not always happen, but the Browns are not very efficient having only scored on 24.3% of their drives and running 8 less plays on 6 more drives than the Redskins.  The Redskins should look to open up with long sustained drives that create any type of points to put pressure on the Browns to do the same.  If the Redskins find that they have a lead, they should look to start hitting home runs down the field to continue to pressure the Browns offense to make big plays.

The last time the Browns faced an offense as good as the Redskins the allowed the Eagles to score 29 points.  Look for the same thing to happen this week with the Redskins being able to hit their underneath routes early due to the Browns being wary of the deep ball.  Crowder, Garcon, and Reed will have big games in the beginning, and look for DeSean to open up after the first quarter.  The Browns will keep it close early, but a big pass play opens the game up for the Redskins that the Browns never recover from.  A close game, but Redskins fans should get a break from a last minute nail biter.

Redskins win 31-21