Redskins vs. Giants: Moments for Reflection

In this time of overemphasis on the dire state of affairs for the Redskins franchise, let us take a moment to reflect on the past.  It was 2007.  A confident Joe Gibbs led an aspiring Jason Campbell and an upstart Redskins team with a dubious 2-0 record to face a beleaguered 0-2 Giants at FedEx Field.  Eli Manning was entering his 3rd season as a starter, and he had shown regression from his rookie season to the point in 2007 where this game against the Redskins would make or break the season and put his future in New York in question.  Down 17-3 at halftime, things did not look good.  The Giants defense could not stop even the vanilla Gibbs 2.0 offense from putting up points on them and it seemed as if all was lost.  But lo and behold, Eli caught a spark, the Redskins do what they do best and squandered their lead in the fourth quarter, and the Giants found themselves on top 24-17 with 2:19 to go.  Jason Campbell would lead a valiant drive to the one yard line where Ladell Betts would be stopped twice in a row on runs up the middle and the Redskins turned the ball over on downs.  People would later point to that game as the turning point in the Giants season that took them from 0-2 to thwarting the Patriots perfect season in Super Bowl XLII.  Now the Redskins find themselves in a reversal of fortune almost ten years later as we reflect on the present.

The Redskins are now the 0-2 team with their future on the line as they go on the road to face a 2-0 Giants team with more statistical holes than some realize.  Redskins fans, though, have pointed to all kinds of self fulfilling prophecies as to why it is a no-brainer that the Giants will win this game:  

We have not beaten the Giants in the Meadowlands since 2009.  

We have only won there four times since 2000, and 2000 was the last time we won in East Rutherford in September.  

The Giants run defense will eat us alive.  

Josh Norman cannot cover everybody.  

Our defense cannot stop anybody.  

Kirk Cousins has become Fallout Boy again.

All of this neglects the fact that the Redskins' season has come down to one or two plays that have changed the course of their games so far.  And, as stated above, the Giants have some statistical holes that warrant further analysis and could be the key to a Redskins win.

Run the Ball, Run the Ball, Run the Ball:  No matter how futile it may seem, or how formidable the Giants front seven may be against the run, it is time for Sean McVay to look at his opponent and say running the ball is the key to this game.  You don't believe me?  Explain to me how the Giants defense has yet to force a turnover, they allow only 16 points per game, 9.1 yards per completion (best in the league), 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground (5th best in the league), and yet they allow the most plays per drive (7.1) out of any team in the league, and the second highest average time of possession per drive (3:18)?  The answer is running the ball.  Dallas ran 30 times for 101 yards, but they were also able to keep the down and distances manageable for Dak Prescott and keep their drives going.  The Saints only ran 13 times and had little offense to show for it.  If we can keep 3rd downs manageable (i.e. 6 yards or less) and commit to running the ball on first and second down, Cousins can do what he does best and throw intermediate to short routes to convert first downs. Speaking of throwing the ball:

A Possession Passing Clinic: Eli Manning is only 23rd in the league in pass attempts, yet he is first in completion percentage.  Eli's longest pass this season has only been 45 yards.  There is no doubt he will try and test Breeland and Phillips to see if they have the mettle to defend their receivers long, but it may not be an air it out type game.  If Manning can establish a short throwing game then it could open up the porous Redskins run defense even more.  With the Giants losing three fumbles last week and the Redskins defense being notorious for stripping the ball, look for the Giants to use the short passing game to set up the run and control the clock.  

Hunt With One Bullet at All Times:  A plea to the Redskins defense to seize opportunities when they come.  While Manning has thrown only one interception this year he has been sacked twice as much as Kirk Cousins on almost 20 less attempts.  Four sacks may not seem like a lot, but the Giants are not passing the ball as much so the sacks stand out more.  There may be opportunities for the Redskins to pressure Eli if he comes out throwing, and if the Redskins can stop the run it may provide more opportunities to sack Manning that they cannot give up.  The Redskins defense also missed recovering a crucial Ezekiel Elliot fumble last week that would have ended the Cowboys' go ahead drive.  This game will come down to possession, so any opportunity that the Redskins defense has to get off the field must not be squandered. 

A moment to reflect on the near future.  This game will come down to possession.  As omnipotent as the Giants defense has been made out to be, it is not without its faults especially when it comes to offenses holding on to the ball against them.  Likewise, the Redskins offense has been able to move the ball relatively well this year, but they need to capitalize on these drives with touchdowns.  I see a ball control battle where each team trades off long drives with defensive stops sprinkled in.  The Redskins get a touchdown off of a timely turnover, they sack Manning at least 3 times and hurry him all day, and they keep the Giants guessing by running and throwing out of a lot of three TE sets.

Redskins win 21-20