Kirk Cousins and the $26 Million Myth

Twenty Six Million Dollars per year is just a number, yet some have speculated that it could be the going rate for Kirk Cousins if he were to hit the open market and seemingly anyone who has ever watched Kirk Cousins play has an opinion on the matter.  Some say he should get the money.  Some say he shouldn't get the money.  And some have said both over the past year.  But the $26 Million per year price tag does not mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of NFL contracts.  Yes, that would put a tremendous strain on The Redskins yearly salary cap, but without any guaranteed money that number is worthless to Kirk Cousins.  In theory we could sign him to a 10 year $260 Million contract, and if none of it is guaranteed then we can cut him at any time and not have to pay him another cent.  What should concern an almost 29 year old Kirk Cousins, and a fiscally fickle franchise like the Washington Redskins, is the amount of fully guaranteed money that will be a part of a long term contract.  That number should supersede the per year salary as the driving force behind any long term negotiation because that is the number the player will get regardless of whether or not he is one the team, but it is rarely brought up in any discussion about resigning Kirk Cousins. Sports agent Joel Corry stated in his interview with the Sports Junkies in the link above that Cousins could get $60 Million in fully guaranteed money on the open market, and if the Redskins want to keep Cousins at a reasonable salary cap number they may need to increase the amount of fully guaranteed money beyond $60 Million.  Here is a contract that could work given the circumstances:

6 years $120,000,000 with a $36,000,000 signing bonus and $74,000,000 fully guaranteed

$20,000,000 per year with $14,000,000 in base salary and $6,000,000 in signing bonus every year.  Base salary in years 1-2 are fully guaranteed, and $10,000,000 of year 3 base salary is fully guaranteed.
                      

Instead of writing a dry post about why this could work, it may be better to justify this contract by envisioning Scot McCloughan pitching this contract to Kirk Cousins in a fictitious contract talk.  This is probably what it would sound like:

Kirk, baby.  Good to see you.  I know you're a man of business so let's just get down to brass tacks.  You may not believe it, but I have a long term offer for you that may tickle your fancy.  Here it is (McCloughan hands him he offer stated above).  No, I don't take you for an idiot, but hear me out on this contract.  Yes, you will only be getting $20 Million per year, but $74 Million would be the second largest guaranteed amount of money behind Andrew Luck. Of course I think you are better than Andrew Luck, and not just in your elocution skills.  But Andrew was only 26 when he signed that contract and those three years make a difference.  You'll be 29 before next year starts, and I am still giving you only $2 Million less in overall money than Andrew Luck, but it is hard to come up with comparable contracts within your age range.  The two contracts you should be looking at for comparisons are Joe Flacco's old contract and Tony Romo's contract.  Romo signed his contract when he was 33 and I'm giving you the same amount of years and almost $20 Million more over the course of the contract.  Flacco was 28 when he signed his old contract in 2013 for the same years and the same money as I am giving you now, but he only got $29 Million in guaranteed money and he was coming off a freaking Super Bowl victory.  I am giving you almost $50 Million more in guarantees than Flacco to show you how committed we are to keeping you here.  And while were on the subject of Super Bowl's, let's not forget what got you here in the first place.  

Maybe you haven't noticed, but we need to fill a lot of holes that could make this team that much better in 2017 and beyond.  Giving you more than $20 Million per year would put a strain on trying to fill those holes.  You want Pierre, DeSean, Vernon, and Chris Thompson back?  You want to not worry about whether or not were are getting the ball back on every defensive 3rd down under 25 yards?  You want to rewrite the way high profile quarterback sign contracts?  I thought you did.  You make this team better, and this team has made you better.  Let us build that team around you by taking this contract.  We believe in you and..........what?  Yes, I mean that.  We believe in you, and ah? Oh C'mon Kirk, not this again.  Of course we front loaded the guaranteed money, but that is what's best for the both of us.  We are betting on you now, Kirk.  We feel that you have at least three good years in you and we are so confident in that fact that we are guaranteeing you $56 Million in the first three years.  And yes, after year three we would be able to cut ties with you and only be on the hook for $6 Million per year, but that is not what we want.  We want you to play out the full term of this contract and lead this team to glory.  What?.......(McCloughan lets out an audible sigh of frustration) OK Kirk.  You think this is not a fair assessment of your skills do you?  You think you can get more on the open market?  Well, let's not get too greedy here my friend.  I didn't want it to come to this, but let's take a long hard look at your other options and this rosy open market.

I don't want it to come to this, but we could always franchise you again.  Yes, that is more money in the short term, but the question is what will you do come next year?  You better hope that we can win, and with $4 Million less in cap space this year that may be an issue if we can't sign who we want.  What will the market be for a 30 year old quarterback who cannot be better than right around .500 even when managing a highly prolific offense? Think about that.  What would we do without you?  Kirk, the question you should be asking is what would you do without us.  You going to follow Kyle Shanahan to Denver and have to fight through another quarterback controversy for the next two seasons with Lynch and Siemian?  You going to go to Arizona and take a bigger gamble that their offensive line will holdup and not get you killed like Carson Palmer?  Maybe you can clean up Jay Cutler's mess in Chicago and spend the next three years in rebuilding mode, or take whatever ungodly contract the 49ers can offer you with their $87 Million in cap space and play for a different head coach every year.  Wait, I got it.  You can stick it to Robert again and go play for Cleveland.  That sounds like fun, right?  No, Kirk.  The best place for you is here.  You know the offense.  We'll keep as many players we can and add more to make it better.  We are on the cusp here of something great for the first time in 30 years in DC.  Sure, you could probably get more money elsewhere but it won't mean as much as it could if you bring a championship to DC.  We are close Kirk.  Take time to think about this offer and I'll see you tomorrow.  

There it is.  This contract would be pricey, but not much more than what we are paying Cousins now so the salary cap does not take a colossal hit.  The length may make some squeamish, but it is time to commit to someone who has shown he can get it done.  This contract is compensatory without being too over the top, and Cousins would at least have to think about signing it.  He will be 29 in August, and while he holds most of the leverage in these negotiations he must realize on some level that he will be gambling on himself again if he leaves for an unknown situation.  McCloughan would be wise to start at this point and try to negotiate the amount of guaranteed money without raising the per year cap hit.  If a deal cannot be reached then it is the franchise tag again for Kirk Cousins and another year of speculation that could possibly end with his ultimate departure from the Washington Redskins.

We Know Kirk Cousins, and We Need Him to Stay

The Redskins bye week has been a cacophony of opinions about the future of Kirk Cousins and this franchise.  This dialogue was inevitable given that the franchise tag that Cousins has been carrying around this season makes for sensational conjecture and blogger fodder.  But the tone of this dialogue is what is baffling given Cousins performance as the unquestioned starter over the last 25 games.  This notion that we still don't know what to make of Cousins is asinine.  Even more asinine is the hypothetical notion that we could be in the same spot if Colt McCoy had been under center this season.  Both of these lines of thinking are dangerous given that Scot McCloughan will more than likely not be paying what Cousins and his agent are looking for this offseason, and there are a number of suitors who may very well break then bank to enlist the services of the Redskins signal caller.  All of this means that we will need to make Cousins feel wanted so much that he turns down $3-5 million more per year, and possibly $10-20 more in guaranteed money, to stay in Washington.  We must do this by putting away the notions that there is ambiguity in what kind of quarterback Cousins is and that we would be able to do the same thing without him.  The Redskins need Kirk Cousins because of what he has become over the last two seasons, and these accomplishments can be highlighted by debunking the two most prevalent arguments against Cousins getting a big contract here in Washington.

Argument 1: We Still Don't Know What Kind of Quarterback Kirk Cousins Is

The people who want to temper the talks of giving Cousins a large contract use this argument to obfuscate the true nature of what Cousins means to this team, and to use it to artificially manufacture dissent within HTTR nation about what Cousins should be paid this coming off season.  These people are the people who call Cousins an empty stat collector without looking at the most important stat of all.  Wins.  While the detractors look to dissect Cousins's stats to point out inconsistencies within his play they neglect that, for the first time since Brad Johnson, the Redskins have a winner at quarterback who has the temperament to perform at a high level in close games and lead meaningful drives late in the game.   Let's look at those drives over the past two seasons:

1) 10/4/15: Cousins leads a 15 play, 90 yard drive at the end of the 4th quarter to beat the Eagles
2) 10/11/15: Cousins goes 46 yards in :24 to set up a game tying field goal in Atlanta, and was a Ryan Grant slip away from leading the Redskins to score on their first possession in overtime
3) 10/25/15:  The infamous "You Like That" game.  Cousins led the biggest comeback in Redskins history, but you may have forgotten that the last touchdown was thrown to Jordan Reed that capped an 11 play, 80 yard drive in the last two minutes
4) 10/23/16: Cousins put his contract on the line as he ran in a 20 yard read option play to cap off a 9 play, 76 yard drive to take the lead.
5) 10/30/16: Cousins did all he could except kick the field goals himself to put the Redskins in position to win in a hard fought game.

These are not event counting the fact that last year he was plagued by drops against New England that may have allowed the Redskins to at least keep pace with the Patriots.  He put the redskins ahead in the third quarter of their playoff game against the Packers.  He led the Redskins into a position to go up by two scores against Dallas and threw an untimely interception.  He led the go ahead drive after halftime against the Ravens that proved to be the difference in the game.  All of this shows that Cousins has put the Redskins in a position to win more often than not, and aside from the Dallas game this season he has cleaned up the back breaking mistakes that plagued him early in his career.  This is who Kirk Cousins is.  He puts the team in a position to win.  Whatever way Cousins's stats are used to define him as a quarterback, Cousin has compiled a majority of those stats in games where the Redskins were in the thick of competition.  This leads into the second bogus argument against keeping Cousins.

Argument #2: Colt McCoy (or hypothetical replacement) could do what Cousins is doing

This statement is only bogus when looking at the long term prognostication.  In the short term it is hard to argue some of the facts.  McCoy has a limited arm, but can make short throws and is more athletic than he looks to keep defenses honest in read option.  McCoy may not have the leadership qualities that Cousins has, and Cousins can throw deep enough to keep the safeties at bay, but let's say that McCoy could be 4-3-1 right now as a starter and we let Cousins walk at the end of the season.  What then?  McCoy would only be a short term solution and we would need to look for a replacement.  We would probably want to bring in another QB in order to have Nate Sudfeld not be one hit away from being the starter, but the free agent class for 2017 looks bleak and hopefully  McCloughan is smart enough not to draft a quarterback again in 2017.  Then at the end of next season we are back at square one.  I can hear people saying, "We'll have the money to resign all of our offensive weapons if we go with McCoy next year", but do they think that Jackson and Garcon will stay after this season knowing that the next two years may be in rebuilding mode?  Both will be entering their 10th year as a pro, and they know that they may only have 3-4 good years left.  It would not be surprising if they decide to walk from uncertainty here in Washington if Cousins leaves, so McCoy would be without two huge weapons.  It is more than likely one leaves anyway if Cousins resigns to a large contract, but there is more incentive to stay if Cousins is under center.

All of this points to one conclusion.  Barring a complete meltdown from Cousins over the next eight games, the best option will be to resign Cousins to a long term contract.  Even though some have stated his average annual salary should be about $22.1 million, it is unlikely that McCloughan will go that high.  It may be that Cousins gets a higher amount of guaranteed money over a longer term contract in order to keep the per year cap hit low enough that we can resign some of our free agents, but Cousins is the only option to continue the success the Redskins have had over the last 25 games.  Cousins is a winner who has shown improvement over his time as a starter, and he has gained the respect of the players around him.  At no time in the Dan Snyder era have the Redskins had a quarterback who instilled so much confidence in his play over a longer period of time, and the Redskins need to show that they are committed to the players they have developed.  If not, get ready for the Brian Hoyer vs. Colt McCoy battle in training camp, and blog posts about how good DeSean Jackson looks in silver and black.