Maryland Basketball's Future Is On the Line This Week

The fate of the Maryland Men's Basketball Program will be on the line this week as they face two Top 10 opponents in succession.  The upcoming games against Michigan State and Purdue will give the NCAA Selection Committee a good idea about whether or not the Terps need to win out the rest of the season to have a chance at making their fourth straight NCAA appearance.  But these next two games will have more far reaching ramifications for the program as Mark Turgeon navigates his seventh season in College Park.  It is no secret that Turgeon has not delivered the wins against big time programs, but bad losses against these two teams could start to make the grass on the other side look just a little bit greener.  Maryland's short term, and long term future, hang in the balance of these two games, and it begins with the Terps NCAA Tournament resume.

For those of you keeping score at home, Maryland's overall resume to make the Tournament this year does not look good so far.  They have one win against the RPI Top 50 (Butler who is 31) and their next best RPI win has been against the mighty Bucknell Bison who are ranked 100.  Maryland itself is only ranked 53 in the RPI, but these next two games could give them the quality win they need to bolster their resume and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Maryland could pull off an upset.  Maryland was able to keep pace with Purdue, albeit at home and with Justin Jackson, and they traded punches with Michigan State without Jackson for the first fifteen minutes until Maryland went cold and Michigan State couldn't miss.  One inspiring Turgeon speech could will the Terps past one of these teams over the next few days, and it is Mark Turgeon's coaching prowess that will be on trial over the next two games as it pertains to his tenure at the University of Maryland.

Turgeon's coaching acumen has been called into question over the past two weeks, which has exacerbated the call for his removal due to his lackluster performance against big time programs in big time situations.  Turgeon has been chided for Maryland's performance at the end of the game against Indiana, and for not defending the inbound pass against Michigan when the Terps were up one point with 3.2 seconds left.  The Michigan loss especially hurts because Turgeon's record against Top 25 teams has not been so glamorous.  If the Terps had beaten Michigan it would have been the first time Turgeon had beaten a Top 25 team in a true road game since he came to College Park.  In fact, Turgeon's only win against a Top 25 team on the road (not counting neutral site games) was against LSU on November 25, 2006. Couple that with the fact that Turgeon is 7-27 against Top 25 teams since he took the Maryland job, and there is reason to be concerned about the direction of the program in College Park outside of the worry that the Terps may miss the Tournament for the first time in four years.  Terps fans, though, need to gain some perspective and look at another Maryland Legend's rise to the top in order to evaluate Turgeon's tenure.

Turgeon is in his seventh year at the University of Maryland, and yet by his seventh year, one Gary Williams was in a more precarious place than Turgeon.  Gary had only made two tournaments in his 6 previous years, and he had losing records in two out of his first three seasons (the last losing seasons Maryland Basketball has had).  In his sixth season, though, Joe Smith was named AP National Player of the Year and the Terps won the ACC Regular Season Championship.  Things were looking up for Maryland Basketball despite Joe Smith being drafted number 1 overall in 1995.  Gary would follow that season up with a first round exit from the Tournament in 1996 at the hands of Santa Clara, who was led at the time by a relatively unknown Steve Nash.  If the man Terps fans venerate as much as Gary Williams can have a regression, then surely Mark Turgeon can as well, and Turgeon may outpace Gary in certain areas that should have Terps fans pining to keep him around for the long term.  But it is the one area that Gary outpaces Turgeon that leaves the Maryland Nation insatitaed.

Mark Turgeon has extended his career at Maryland on the basis of recruiting hype, but he needs to take the next step if he is to stay in College Park.  Turgeon has been able to acquire three ESPN Top 20 recruiting classes over the past six years, and his current class is ranked 10th with one 5-Star recruit in Jalen Smith.  Gary was the opposite.  Gary was ridiculed for recruiting a guy named Joe Smith, but he would go on to beat a Jerry Stackhouse/Rasheed Wallace led, number 1 ranked, North Carolina squad with some guy named Joe Smith as his star player.  Turgeon has not been able to translate his recruiting talents into any success against top teams that Gary did, but that could change within the next week.  The games against Michigan State and Purdue could give Turgeon the signature win he needs to validate all of his recruiting success during his time at Maryland.  Two bad losses, i.e. losses of 20 points or more, may begin the talks of removing Turgeon from his coaching responsibilities.

Turgeon's tenure, more than likely, automatically extends through next season.  Justin Jackson's injury ensures his return for next season, and with the recruits coming in for next season Turgeon deserves at least one more year to prove himself.  But two more bad losses to Top 25 teams will dictate just how much time Turgeon will be given to right the ship in College Park.  Terps fans would be wise to realize, however, that after winning a Conference Championship with a National Player of the Year, Gary Williams was exited in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Turgeon has been able to attract high level recruits in a more competitive marketplace, and although his recruiting may not have translated into long term success, Turgeon deserves more time at Maryland for finally bringing a proven recruiter to College Park.  If he cannot deliver a win over the next two games, though, he may be looking for a new job sooner than he thinks.

Maryland's Most Important Piece May Not Stay

If Melo Trimble, Diamond Stone, and Robert Carter are smart they will stay at Maryland one more year.  According to Chad Ford's rankings on ESPN.com Melo and Carter are outside of the Top 50 prospects (Melo is #51 and Carter is #59), which means that they have a good shot at not being drafted if they decide to leave Maryland.  Stone is #18 in these rankings, which means he would probably get drafted somewhere in 2016, but someone at Maryland needs to show him what Jordan Williams is doing right now and it may make him think twice.  If all of them came back, though, they would all have a chance to increase their draft status by increasing their individual and team success.  Melo would finally have some backcourt depth to give him more rest during the game with the addition of freshman PG Anthony Cowan and SG Kevin Huerter.  Carter can have more exposure by not having to share minutes with Jake Layman, and by looking at Robert Carter's freshman year picture at Georgia Tech you would have to assume that he would put in the work to improve even more for next year.  Finally, Stone would get one more year to improve his rebounding ability and prove that he is a Top 10 pick with Melo and Carter helping him out in that capacity.  Finally, if all three came back Maryland would once again be a preseason Top 5 team with experience, and the shared team success they could generate in 2016-2017 would raise all ships come next year's draft.  But for all this short term prognosticating about whether or not these three will stay, Maryland should be looking at some telling portents about another member of the Terps that point to him leaving this program in the future.

Unless the Terps make at least one Final Four appearance within the next three years, Mark Turgeon may decide not to stay in College Park past his initial contract.  It has been apparent in some of Turgeon's press conferences this season that he seems tired.  Not that pissed off tired that comes from a losing streak, which the Terps suffered late in the season, but that dejected tired that comes from something missing in his personal life. This conjecture comes from a nugget that he gave in his press conference before the Kansas game.  Around the 6:00 mark Turgeon is asked about his time at Wichita State, and he professed his love for the city of Wichita stating that his wife loves the city and it was where his kids were born.  Then there is this Washington Post article by Kent Babb from June that outlines Turgeon's internal battle between his professional success and his personal life.  The article describes how coaching four teams in 17 years has made Turgeon miss special moments in his kids' lives and it has moved him to tears at times.  Finally, remember that Turgeon had a ton of family members come out to see the Terps play at Nebraska because Lincoln is a central point for most of his family that lives in Kansas and Iowa.  All of this points to Turgeon possibly not enjoying living in this area, and not enjoying the sacrifices he makes for the Maryland program if the returns are not going to be there in the future.

Turgeon is a competitor first.  He wants to win on the court more than anything, which is why he probably will not voluntarily leave for any job other than Kansas until he wins a championship here at Maryland.  But the Kent Babb article talks about Turgeon's honesty being his best quality as a coach, recruiter, and father.  Turgeon has three years left on his contract here at Maryland, and if there is no Final Four in that time then Turgeon may have to be honest with himself about what is best for him and his family.  His statements about Wichita and his tired press conferences hint that living in this area may be taking a larger toll on him that he expected.  He sees that his family is mostly located in the Midwest where he spent most of his life, and as his kids get older he may realize that it is not worth it to put himself and his family through the grind of trying to win at Maryland.  All of this can be assuaged by a Final Four appearance before his contract is up in 2019.  If that does not come, it is possible that Turgeon's personal life wins out over his desire for professional success and he walks away from the University of Maryland.

How Elitely Sweet It Is For The Terps

Savor the moment Terps fans.  This past weekend the Terps were able to beat two formidable, yet slightly over matched, teams to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since Steve Blake was at the helm.  They also were able to make this the twelfth straight NCAA tournament where they have won at least one game, which does not seem like much until you realize that the only team that has a longer streak is North Carolina at 14.  As good as it feels to revel in nostalgia, the Terps have a daunting task ahead of them if they are going to make College Park party like it is 2001.  The Final Four is a long way away given the three teams the Terps must face to get there, so let's start by analyzing the first team standing in Maryland's path because there is a good chance the Terps will not live past them.

Kansas: A bitter sweet draw for Mark Turgeon as he will face his alma mater for the first time as the Terps' signal caller.  The Jayhawks will be the toughest opponent the Terps have faced this tournament, and maybe all season, but the Terps will be Kansas's biggest challenge so far in the tournament as well.  It could prove to be a high flying game, and the Terps need to be on to keep pace.

The Bad News: Maybe you haven't heard, but Kansas is the top ranked team in the tournament and for good reason.  The Jayhawks like to play a patented Big 12 brand of basketball that involves taking and giving up a lot of shots.  The problem for the Terps is that they make a lot of the ones that they take and they defend a lot of the ones that they give up.  Kansas's regular season FG% was fifth in the nation at 49.6%, and they only gave up 39.7% to opponents.  Couple those numbers with a high assist rate, a savvy senior leader in Perry Ellis, and an 82 point per game average and you get a recipe for disaster for the Terps.  The Terps will be forced to move on defense against a team that can draw their forwards out of the paint with Ellis's range as a shooter, and with Maryland giving up a ton of offensive rebounds against Hawaii the Jawhawks should be licking their chops at the prospect of second chance points.  Kansas's quantity approach to offensive execution could lead to a massive point differential if Maryland is soft again underneath, and if they allow Kansas's defensive style to get to them.  Kansas takes intensity to the defensive end, where they are relentless on the ball defenders and like to clog the passing lanes.  The Terps do not do well against high pressure defensive teams, and Maryland will be susceptible to quick point swings if they are their normal turnover prone selves.  But as stated above the Terps present a unique challenge to Bill Self and the Jayhawks that they have not faced yet in this tournament.

The Good News: Kansas's flaws play right into Maryland's style of play.  The Terps shot 77% from the free throw line during the regular season, and while they strayed away from getting to the line late in the season they got back there with a vengeance in the first two rounds.  Kansas is all too eager to put their opponents on the charity stripe as their opponents average 21 free throws per game.  If Maryland can fill that average it may slow the game down enough for Kansas to get out of rhythm, and if the Terps can hit on their season average it may offset Kansas's ability to stymie Maryland's field goal accuracy.  While Kansas's defense is in your face, their losses have come from teams that are able to match their energy level.  Melo can get into the lane and distribute with the best of them, and the Terps proved that they can keep pace in a track meet with their game against UNC.  Granted the Terps lost that game, but hopefully they have learned something going through the Big 10 schedule.  Finally, the Terps's size in the front court will give the Jayhawks fits.  Carter and Layman can provide their own brand of inside/outside game to counter balance Ellis, and they both should be looking to drive the lane and draw contact.  Stone needs to prove his worth on the rebounding end, and Damonte Dodd will prove to be a tough defensive mathcup for Ellis.  Kansas has yet to see a team like this in the tournament, and if the Terps can start to hit on threes it could be an interesting day in Louisville.

Maryland wins if they can shoot over 25% from three, get 20 or more free throw attempts, and limit the Jayhawks to under 55 field goal attempts.  Maryland loses if they allow Kansas to be +10 or better in the rebounding margin, they have over 13 turnovers, and they allow Kansas to shoot over 20% from three.  Here's hoping the Terps are able to do the latter and stay in Kentucky for two more days.