Redskins vs. Ravens: The North Remembers

Our neighbors to the north remember. They remember the days of Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Anthony Wright, Chris Redman, Steve McNair (a 13-3 season followed by a plethora of injuries), Jeff Blake, Elvis Grbac, and Ranall Cunningham.  They remember what it is like to have a different starting quarterback almost every season, and have your Super Bowl winning quarterback not even be on the roster the next season.  That is why they gave so much money to Joe Flacco after he led them to the Super Bowl on an improbable statistical run through the playoffs, and it is why they can at least tolerate his 24-22 performance since his win in New Orleans four years ago.  Kirk Cousins is not at that level yet, but his season last year was statistically better than any season Flacco has had in his entire career.  Superior statistics are not exactly equivalent to a Lombardi Trophy (see Dan Marino), but Sunday's game against the Ravens will be a continuation of The Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 as Cousins must prove he can move the ball against a stingy defense on the road.  Cousins must make McCloughan and the Redskins front office remember what it was like to rest their laurels on the likes of John Beck, Rex Grossman, and an over the hill Mark Brunell.  It begins Sunday when the Redskins make the 45 minute drive up I-95 to face the Ravens.

Quantity vs. Quality: Quantity has a quality all it's own.  One team has lived by that mantra so far this season in having a superior number of rushing attempts, passing attempts, drives, and plays run.  Of course that team is the Ravens.  Maybe not what you were expecting, but the Ravens outpace the Redskins in all four of those categories having a higher volume of offensive output.  The problem lies in the results. The Redskins have amassed 140 more passing yards in 18 less attempts, 140 more total offensive yards in 40 less plays, and surprisingly only 5 less yards rushing on 17 less attempts.  Think about that.  As maligned as the Redskins running game has been this season, their yards per attempt (4.4) is almost a full yard better than the Ravens (3.7).  All of this means that the Redskins have been able to move the ball more efficiently than the Ravens, and they must continue to do so this weekend.  The Ravens's offense relies on running a lot of plays and getting a lot of chances to score, so forcing Flacco and the Ravens to make the most of their possessions is key.  The Redskins must continue the Matt Jones renaissance in order to keep the ball on their side, continue to score on every other possession, and continue to spread the ball around to numerous receivers in order to keep the Ravens defense off balance.  They will need to do this because the Ravens defense has quietly become one of the better defenses in the league, and the game may come down to which defensive style wins out.

Bending, Breaking, and the Forgotten Art of Forcing Punts: This game will be based more on which defense can impose it's will on the other team.  The Redskins may not have been able to stop people on a consistent basis, but they have been opportunistic.  They boast the second best turnover percentage (19.5%) in the league, and that was on full display last week against Cleveland.  They have relied on turnovers to stop drives, and they cannot pull a Carlos Rogers and drop sure interceptions or not be able to recover fumbles when they happen.  The Ravens, though, rely on turning people over through punts.  The Ravens defense has forced 26 punts this season, which is second best in the league.  They have done this by being third in the league in plays per drive (4.8) and first in the league in yards allowed per drive (21.3).  They have also forced less turnovers than the Redskins.  This means the Ravens have been able to actually stop people on defense and give the ball back to their offense.  The Ravens high volume offense relies on their defense limiting the possessions of the other team, so the Redskins must be able to sustain drives if they plan on having the bus ride home be a pleasant one.  The Redskins opportunistic offense relies on their defense giving them chances to score through forcing turnovers.  If the Redskins cannot force turnovers and have short drives it could be a long day for the Burgundy and Gold.  They must look to their MVP's so far this season to guide them through this game.

The MVP's Must Step Up: The Redskins MVP's must come to play this weekend.  It may not have dawned on anyone, but the past two weeks have seen Josh Norman have major pregame rhetorical spats with the likes of Odell Beckham and Terrelle Pryor. This week, though, Norman's nemesis is not as hot of a ticket on the heavyweight circuit.  Josh Norman vs. Mike Wallace does not move the needle as much, and maybe for the better.  Norman can now focus more on shutting down the Ravens receivers without the media trying to turn it into a soap opera type narrative.  The other MVP's have been just as well documented as Norman this season, sans the major media hype, and they must show up this weekend if the Redskins want a chance to win.  Dustin Hopkins must be on point with his kicks and convert his field goal attempts into points, and Tress Way must pin the Ravens deep when he gets the chance.

This game will be a litmus test to see where the Redskins are as a team.  The Ravens are a team with a winning record and a stingy defense that the Redskins must step up to in order to given themselves confidence that they can put themselves back atop the NFC East.  The Redskins offense must not get discouraged if they find themselves be stymied early by the Ravens defense, and having to watch the Redskins defense allow Terrance West to run all over them.  The Redskins must be committed to ball control and running Matt Jones in order to set up play action.  Watch for Flacco to take early chances deep in order to test the Redskins safeties, and look for Joe Barry to dial up all or nothing blitzes in order to try and rattle Flacco.  The Redskins will find themselves down again at the half, but their first drive of the second half goes for a score, they get a timely second half turnover, and Flacco and the Ravens squander a last minute drive.  Redskins are 3-2 going into a showdown with the Eagles next week.

Redskins Win 27-24

The Josh Norman Signing May Have Big Consequences

Just when you thought that the Redskins have reformed their ways and they will act more prudent in the free agent market, the major free agents come knocking like some old girlfriend who knows she will at least be let in the door and the Redskins are all too happy to oblige.  Two years ago it was DeSean Jackson.  While people were skeptical about that signing this team would be in a very different spot without him and his contract did not break the bank.  Last year it was Junior Galette. Galette still needs to prove himself after his season ending injury but the Redskins got him at a big discount.  So if Galette can produce anything it will be a win for Scot McCloughan.  The signing of Josh Norman, though, is different.  Norman is being brought in to be the man and he is being paid as such.  His 5 year, $75 million contract makes him one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the league, and he is being brought in on a whirlwind courtship that began roughly 48 hours after Carolina decided to rescind the franchise tag on him.  To top it all off, the Norman signing used up eight of the eleven million dollars in cap space the Redskins had for this season.

This is vintage Redskins free agency; get the best guy for a lot of money no matter the repercussions. There was no way Norman was leaving Ashburn without a contract, and it was the right move to make, but it is the repercussions that need to be examined because this signing leaves the Redskins with very little room to maneuver within the Salary Cap.  The makeup of the Redskins roster and draft board will be shaken up by this signing, and the fallout from these changes may give the Redskins Brass a better negotiating position come next Spring.  Let's look at what could happen in the next few days leading up to the Draft:

1) Gacron and/or Jackson are all but gone.  I hate to say this, but it makes the most financial sense.  Either Jackson, Garcon, or both will not be playing for the Redskins come September.  Both are free agents at the end of next season anyway, and cutting Garcon alone will free up $8 million in cap space.  Jackson will only account for $6 million if he is let go.  It will be a hard decision because the Redskins need to weigh Jackson's deep threat ability with Garcon's toughness in the red zone and leadership qualities.  Whichever receiver is let go, look for any combination of Perry Riley, Logan Paulsen, and Chris Baker to follow them out the door as they are also slated to be UFA's at the end of the 2016 season and cutting them can add more cap space for the Redskins.

2) The Redskins will not be trading for more picks.  That is unless they can free up cap space by cutting players.  The projected cap hit (scroll down to the very bottom for the draft pick cap cost) for the Redskins current draft picks is $5.6 million, and if you factor those players into the Redskins current cap situation the Redskins are about $7 million over the cap.  McCloughan simply cannot afford to sign the 11-12 players he wants to draft unless he makes massive roster changes and restructures.  If there are not massive cuts made before Thursday, look for the Redskins to stand pat.

3) The Redskins will take at least two WR's in the draft, and one of them will be in the first three rounds.  This will be especially true if Garcon and Jackson are let go.  Even if they are not, it is hard to foresee Garcon and Jackson both being on this roster after this season due to the impending expiration of the contracts of Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed after this season.  The Redskins need to be thinking long term especially with Cousins's contract looming.  Speaking of quarterbacks.......

4) Do not be surprised if the Redskins draft a quarterback before the fifth round.  I sincerely hope this is not the case, but it will not be surprising given the circumstances.  The Redskins only have two quarterbacks on the roster for next season; one of whom is on a lucrative, yet tentative, one year contract and another who looks to be a backup for the remainder of his NFL tenure.  The Redskins may decide to draft an insurance policy that they could go forward with if the Cousins situation cannot be resolved by the end of next season, and the Norman signing has put Cousins contract negotiations in a precarious position.

5) The Norman Signing puts Kirk Cousins in a Catch-22.  Whether intentionally or unintentionally, the Redskins front office has put Kirk Cousins in a position where the only outcome will be the Redskins offering him less money again whenever they decide to sit down and negotiate.  Lost in the drunken celebration of the Josh Norman signing is the nugget that he will count $20 million against the cap next year.  The Redskins were skiddish about giving Cousins a long term $20 million per year contract before this signing, and now they will be even more leery of opening up the checkbook due to the sizable amount of money that Norman will be receiving next year.  The Catch-22 comes from the fact that there is nothing that Cousins's play can do to stop this low balling from happening.  Let's assume that the Redskins cut either Jackson or Garcon, and Cousins has a monster season throwing to the one that stays and Jordan Reed.  Reed and Jackson/Garcon's contract will be up at the end of the season, and it is not far fetched to think that the Redskins will low ball Cousins under the guise of The Redskins needing to resign the parts that made him successful.  If Cousins's play is mediocre then that alone will justify the Redskins throwing a low ball offer at Cousins, especially if they draft a quarterback who they think could do just as well for less money in the short term.  If the low ball offers come at the end of next season, it could be that Cousins decides to fly his bombing missions for someone else, and a big part of that could be due to the money they paid Norman putting a stangle hold on the salary cap.

The Redskins made the right move in signing Josh Norman, but the after effects of this signing will be felt for years to come.  It is up to McCloughan, and the Redskins front office, to make prudent decisions that will allow this team to operate within the salary cap.  That could mean that one or more of the above situations may happen, all because of the Redskins doing what they do best winning the offseason championship.