Alex Smith's press conference this Thursday finally put the charade of pretending there was a possibility of the trade not going through to rest. Alex Smith is the quarterback for the Washington Redskins for at least the near future. His introduction by Doug Williams, however, had some portends that every Redskins fan should have taken as a sign that there is still a lot to be done in this offseason to make sure there is no regret about letting Kirk Cousins walk out the door. Williams alluded to the fact that there are still holes on this roster that need to be addressed in order to make the team more complete. What he meant was that the holes needed to be filled in order to make Alex Smith a winner here in Washington. It may be hard for Redskins fans to accept, but Alex Smith is statistically inferior to Cousins over the last three seasons in almost all major categories except for one. And it is the one that has the most factors attached to its execution. Winning.
Alex Smith has been able to win 31 regular season games over the last three seasons. His regular season win total in that time span is only eclipsed by Cam Newton and Tom Brady. A look at his total stats over that time frame, however, should make Redskins fans wonder how he achieved that feat. Alex Smith has 46 regular season starts over the last three seasons, and when comparing his numbers to the 20 other quarterbacks with 40 or more starts (plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39 starts over the last three seasons) his numbers are fairly pedestrian if not concerning. Alex Smith has thrown for only 11,030 yards over the last three seasons which ranks him 13th out of this group. He has only thrown 61 TD's over the last three seasons. The only quarterbacks lower than Smith in that area are Joe Flacco, Marcus Mariota, and Tyrod Taylor. Looking at that stat in another light would be to compare Alex Smith's 61 TD's to those quarterbacks who have had a comparable amount of attempts. Smith has 1464 attempts over the last three seasons. The other quarterbacks who have between 1400-1499 attempts are Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Andy Dalton. Rodgers and Dalton both have less attempts (1420 and 1445) and more touchdowns (87 and 68) than Alex Smith, and Cam Newton has thrown 76 touchdowns on only 33 more attempts. What is even more staggering is that all three of these quarterbacks have less total completions than Alex Smith, with Newton having 119 less completed passes than Smith over the last three seasons. Even if you factor in Smith's 8 rushing touchdowns, he ranks with Flacco, Mariota, and Taylor as the only quarterbacks out of this group who have accounted for less than 70 touchdowns over the last three seasons. So how is Alex Smith the third winningest quarterback since 2015? The answer would be in his supporting cast.
When Doug Williams stated that the current holes on the Redskins roster need to be filled, he was subconsciously indicting Alex Smith's record as a winner in the NFL. Alex Smith has had the luxury of having a Top 10 rushing offense in yards per game twice over the last three seasons in Kansas City, and he has had a Top 10 scoring defense (in points per game allowed) twice as well over that same time frame. To give perspective on that stat, Tom Brady is the only other quarterback with 40 or more starts who has had teams be Top 10 in both those areas over multiple seasons since 2015. Doug Williams is, or should be, keenly aware of this fact considering that the Redskins never gave Kirk Cousins either of those luxuries over his three years as a starter on this team. In fact, Kansas City's worst performances in these categories since 2015 (109.3 rushing ypg in 2016, and 21.2 ppg allowed in 2017) were better than any season the Redskins have in those categories over the same time frame. This means that Alex Smith has not been relied upon to be the primary provider of wins over the last three seasons in Kansas City, and he is walking into a situation that is the exact opposite. Kirk Cousins had to be the main guy the Redskins turned to in order win games over the last three seasons, especially last season where his offensive line single-handedly kept the sports medicine trade open in DC, his most talented receiving target played in only 6 games, and his defense went through countless iterations due to injury. The Redskins roster is much worse than the one Alex Smith left in Kansas City and Doug Williams knows it. Williams also knows, or should know, that the only way Alex Smith has been successful is when the supporting cast around him has been successful as well, which makes this a pivotal offseason for the tenure of all who are invested in the Redskins success.
The Redskins do not have Kareem Hunt's productivity, or Tyreek Hill's speed, or Travis Kelce's durability, or Justin Houston's sack production, or Eric Berry's coverage ability at safety. Most people in the know have stated that the Redskins current personnel does not have the talent the Chiefs had when Alex Smith was their quarterback, and it has only gotten worse for the Redskins so far in free agency. It will be up to Doug Williams to remedy the situation by putting the necessary pieces in place to make sure that Alex Smith has the necessary tools to be successful this season. It will be up to Jay Gruden to make sure that Alex Smith can use those tools to keep the Redskins win total comparable to what it was under Kirk Cousins. Alex Smith has proven that he can be a winner with the right supporting cast, and given that his best statistical season of his 13 year career came last year shows that he may be able to take on the challenges that the Redskins roster poses. But this season will be a test of front office acumen as mush as it will be about quarterback play. Doug Williams will need to acquire the right pieces, and Jay Gruden will need to position them so that Alex Smith can do the only thing he has been good at over the last five years of his career. Winning.
Showing posts with label Redskins Alex Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Redskins Alex Smith. Show all posts
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Repercussions of the Alex Smith Trade
Do you remember the scene in Dumb and Dumber when Lloyd trades the dog truck for the mini scooter and sees Harry for the first time, and Harry has one of the greatest quote of the movie:
"Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this.............AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!
I think that is what Bruce Allen is thinking right now in his head, and it is possibly what Dan Snyder said to him when he heard that Allen had executed this trade. Allen is being excoriated on Twitter at the moment and for good reason. He gave up a 29 year old Kirk Cousins for four years of a now 33 year old Alex Smith at a cost of $94 million with $71 million guaranteed, our 2018 3rd Round Pick, and one of the best nickel corners of last season in Kendall Fuller. This is bad trade in that Allen gave up too much for an aging quarterback, and it torpedoed any leverage you had in moving Kirk Cousins. Smith still had one year left on his contract. Who was banging down the Chiefs door to get him, and if they were, why were we willing to give up Fuller for him? Allen could have played the game a little bit more to see what the Redskins could have received for Cousins. In my mind, anything over the compensatory pick we are going to get when Cousins walks would have been sufficient. And there in lies the problem. Trade value.
More than likely, any free agent quarterback would have cost just as much as Smith, and any rookie would be a step down in experience and maybe ability. The thing about this trade is we have a net loss of value in losing Fuller and our 3rd Rounder this year, and the repercussions of those losses will be felt in many ways this offseason. Let us go through all of the repercussions of this trade in the short term piece by piece.
Repercussion #1: The Redskins added to their draft needs
The Redskins willfully added a cornerback to the list of position needs. The coaching staff must be really higher on Quinton Dunbar and Fabian Moreau, but prudence dictates that they at least get someone to back them up in case they are not up Fuller's level at the nickel corner. And while we are on the subject of cornerbacks.........
Repercussion #2: The happiest person in Ashburn right now is Bashaud Breeland
Allen lost leverage in trading Kirk and in trying to resign Breeland. Josh Norman is the only proven starting corner on the roster right now, and with the loss of Fuller, Bashaud Breeland can now command a high price from the Redskins who have nothing they can counter with if Breeland threatens to leave if he does not get more money. Are you really comfortable going into the season with Quinton Dunbar as our #2 corner? Breeland is very happy right now.
Repercussion #3: Don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB.
The only thing more Redskins than unnecessarily trading for an aging quarterback is redundantly drafting one after they do so. With all of their needs on the offensive and defensive line, don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB with one of their first three picks in the draft. Logic would dictate that they, more than likely, will not do it in the first round (but when has logic ever entered into the Redskins' decision making) which brings us to the next repercussion:
Repercussion #4: The Green Bay Packers will go broke on Etsy sending Bruce Allen gifts.
Assume that Baker Mayfield and/or Josh Allen sit at 13 when the Redskins are up. Teams now may be more unwilling to trade up because the Redskins now signed Smith, and it is easier to call the Redskins bluff that they will draft either of those quarterbacks. Maybe the Redskins will, but there is less of the uncertainty needed to drive those negotiations than there was before. And if they are there at 13 teams may be more willing to trade for the team who has the 14th pick. The Green Bay Packers. Don't be surprised if the Bills trade one of their first round picks to Green Bay in order to move up and get one of these QB's before Arizona does at 15. That could have been the Redskins, but that scenario is unlikely. And while we are on the subject of trading, the one possible positive repercussion surrounds trade value
Repercussion #5: Bruce Allen's one-outer is Denver.
The only positive bargaining chip Allen has left is with Denver. Numerous sources have linked Denver to Cousins over the past week. With Allen trading for Smith, it is an almost certainty that Cousins will hit free agency in March. Allen SHOULD be reminding the Broncos that the Jets have an offer sheet ready to go for Cousins that will outpace them in the short term. Allen's only card left is to possibly pull off a deal with Denver before Cousins hits free agency, because the Broncos know that they cannot offer as much as the Jets. If Allen can do this and get something comparable to what we gave up for Smith it will be a win, but do we believe that Allen has the bargaining acumen to pull this off?
These are the repercussions as I see them, and there are probably many more. It is not a total loss in acquiring Alex Smith, but for the actual and theoretical price we paid for him is not worth his services in the short term. Smith has always played with a chip on his shoulder ever since he was benched for Colin Kaepernick, so maybe he uses that to great success here in Washington and we forget about Kendall Fuller and the contract. And maybe Allen is playing a long game with the Broncos who want to prevent a bidding war for Cousins. Logic would dictate, though, that the repercussions of this trade put the Redskins is a worse place than where they starter. But when has logic ever entered the conversation regarding the Washington Redskins.
"Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this.............AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!
I think that is what Bruce Allen is thinking right now in his head, and it is possibly what Dan Snyder said to him when he heard that Allen had executed this trade. Allen is being excoriated on Twitter at the moment and for good reason. He gave up a 29 year old Kirk Cousins for four years of a now 33 year old Alex Smith at a cost of $94 million with $71 million guaranteed, our 2018 3rd Round Pick, and one of the best nickel corners of last season in Kendall Fuller. This is bad trade in that Allen gave up too much for an aging quarterback, and it torpedoed any leverage you had in moving Kirk Cousins. Smith still had one year left on his contract. Who was banging down the Chiefs door to get him, and if they were, why were we willing to give up Fuller for him? Allen could have played the game a little bit more to see what the Redskins could have received for Cousins. In my mind, anything over the compensatory pick we are going to get when Cousins walks would have been sufficient. And there in lies the problem. Trade value.
More than likely, any free agent quarterback would have cost just as much as Smith, and any rookie would be a step down in experience and maybe ability. The thing about this trade is we have a net loss of value in losing Fuller and our 3rd Rounder this year, and the repercussions of those losses will be felt in many ways this offseason. Let us go through all of the repercussions of this trade in the short term piece by piece.
Repercussion #1: The Redskins added to their draft needs
The Redskins willfully added a cornerback to the list of position needs. The coaching staff must be really higher on Quinton Dunbar and Fabian Moreau, but prudence dictates that they at least get someone to back them up in case they are not up Fuller's level at the nickel corner. And while we are on the subject of cornerbacks.........
Repercussion #2: The happiest person in Ashburn right now is Bashaud Breeland
Allen lost leverage in trading Kirk and in trying to resign Breeland. Josh Norman is the only proven starting corner on the roster right now, and with the loss of Fuller, Bashaud Breeland can now command a high price from the Redskins who have nothing they can counter with if Breeland threatens to leave if he does not get more money. Are you really comfortable going into the season with Quinton Dunbar as our #2 corner? Breeland is very happy right now.
Repercussion #3: Don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB.
The only thing more Redskins than unnecessarily trading for an aging quarterback is redundantly drafting one after they do so. With all of their needs on the offensive and defensive line, don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB with one of their first three picks in the draft. Logic would dictate that they, more than likely, will not do it in the first round (but when has logic ever entered into the Redskins' decision making) which brings us to the next repercussion:
Repercussion #4: The Green Bay Packers will go broke on Etsy sending Bruce Allen gifts.
Assume that Baker Mayfield and/or Josh Allen sit at 13 when the Redskins are up. Teams now may be more unwilling to trade up because the Redskins now signed Smith, and it is easier to call the Redskins bluff that they will draft either of those quarterbacks. Maybe the Redskins will, but there is less of the uncertainty needed to drive those negotiations than there was before. And if they are there at 13 teams may be more willing to trade for the team who has the 14th pick. The Green Bay Packers. Don't be surprised if the Bills trade one of their first round picks to Green Bay in order to move up and get one of these QB's before Arizona does at 15. That could have been the Redskins, but that scenario is unlikely. And while we are on the subject of trading, the one possible positive repercussion surrounds trade value
Repercussion #5: Bruce Allen's one-outer is Denver.
The only positive bargaining chip Allen has left is with Denver. Numerous sources have linked Denver to Cousins over the past week. With Allen trading for Smith, it is an almost certainty that Cousins will hit free agency in March. Allen SHOULD be reminding the Broncos that the Jets have an offer sheet ready to go for Cousins that will outpace them in the short term. Allen's only card left is to possibly pull off a deal with Denver before Cousins hits free agency, because the Broncos know that they cannot offer as much as the Jets. If Allen can do this and get something comparable to what we gave up for Smith it will be a win, but do we believe that Allen has the bargaining acumen to pull this off?
These are the repercussions as I see them, and there are probably many more. It is not a total loss in acquiring Alex Smith, but for the actual and theoretical price we paid for him is not worth his services in the short term. Smith has always played with a chip on his shoulder ever since he was benched for Colin Kaepernick, so maybe he uses that to great success here in Washington and we forget about Kendall Fuller and the contract. And maybe Allen is playing a long game with the Broncos who want to prevent a bidding war for Cousins. Logic would dictate, though, that the repercussions of this trade put the Redskins is a worse place than where they starter. But when has logic ever entered the conversation regarding the Washington Redskins.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)