The Redskins Have No Choice But to Keep Cousins

The Redskins have put themselves in a position where they have no choice but to keep Kirk Cousins, even if that means putting the franchise tag on him for next year.  Despite Jay Gruden's lukewarm endorsement of Cousins at his end of the year press conference, the Redskins need to see that Cousins has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past three seasons and that there is no other alternative out there that can readily replace Cousins's production on the field.  There are those who follow the usual banal talking points that boil Kirk's performance down to the notion that his stats are pedestrian and that we can easily replace him with someone who can take this franchise to the next level.  A look at Cousins's stats over the past three seasons compared to his fellow quarterbacks, however, shows that Cousins excels in numerous areas given his situation, and the Redskins should see that trying to replace that production may be harrowing at best.

For this analysis, Cousins's stats are compared to only those quarterbacks who have had 40 or more starts over the past three seasons, plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39.  That does limit comparison to players like Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff, but their sample sizes are too small to make a fair comparison, and it is better to compare Cousins to the elite quarterbacks who have sustained their play for a longer period of time.  There are 19 of those quarterbacks, including Cousins, who have made 40 or more starts since 2015 (plus Aaron Rodgers with 39 starts), and it is that list of quarterbacks we will be comparing Cousins to in order to show how good he has been over the past three seasons.  Here is the list of quarterbacks who have made 40 or more starts since 2015, with the number of starts they have had in parentheses: (Note: all stats obtained from profootballreference.com, and all stats given are totals since 2015)

Kirk Cousins (48), Phillip Rivers (48), Drew Brees (47), Tom Brady (44), Matt Ryan (48), Matt Stafford (48), Eli Manning (47), Blake Bortles (48), Derek Carr (46), Aaron Rodgers (39), Cam Newton (46), Jameis Winston (45), Russel Wilson (48), Alex Smith (46), Ben Roethlisberger (40), Joe Flacco (42), Andy Dalton (45), Tyrod Taylor (43), Marcus Mariota (42).

As can be noted by the bold numbers above, Cousins is one of six quarterbacks to have started every single game since 2015.  So has Blake Bortles, though, so a further analysis of Cousins's worth needs to be presented.  I choose to do this by addressing some of the asinine statements that the Anti-Cousins camp brings up to justify not signing Kirk Cousins to a long term contract.  Let's start by presenting an argument aimed at taking down one of Cousins's strengths

Sure, Kirk has a great completion percentage because he checks down and refuses to go down field.

It is true.  Out of this group of quarterbacks, Cousins is 2nd in completion percentage (67.02%) only behind Drew Brees.  Cousins has been highly accurate, but to say that he throws the easier passes is a misnomer based on his yards per attempt and yards per completion over the past three seasons.  His yards per attempt (7.8) is equal to that of Brees and Brady, and his yards per completion (11.6) is third highest among the quarterbacks who had over 1100 completions during this time frame.  Cousins is throwing his passes as deep as some of the best in the game, and he is completing them at a distance that is equal to the elite quarterbacks in the league.  The fact that he is completing these passes at a higher rate than anyone but Drew Brees should show the Redskins that he is worth a long term contract.  But wait, the Anti-Cousins League has another bone to pick with giving Kirk that kind of money...

OK, so he is accurate, but Cousins just doesn't put up the big stats...like yards.

The Cousins doubters maybe surprised to know that the only quarterbacks out of this group to throw for more yards than Cousins are Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Ryan in that order.  Cousins has thrown for 13,176 yards over the past three seasons, and he has shown that he is able to eclipse 4,000 yards this season with a mostly new receiving corps and a patchwork offensive line.  Also factor in the average amount of yardage thrown by these 19 quarterbacks over the past three seasons is 11,172 yards, and you can see that Cousins is well above average.

Fine, but those yards don't translate into points...i.e. Touchdowns.

This statement depends on how you want to evaluate Cousins's performance.  Yes, Cousins has only thrown for 81 TD's over the past three seasons (good for 8th out of the list above) and he has never thrown for 30 or more TD's in any one season.  But there is a surprising stat that elevates Cousins's game when you factor in rushing touchdowns.  Cousins has 13 rushing TD's over the past three seasons.  The only other quarterbacks to have more are Cam Newton (21) and Tyrod Taylor (14).  When you combine the rushing touchdowns with passing touchdowns, Cousins has accounted for 94 TD's over the past three seasons.  That is tied with Russell Wilson for 3rd over that time frame.  The only people ahead of him are Brady (99), Brees (97), and Newton (97).  Think about that.  Cousins has accounted for more TD's over the past three seasons than Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom you would elevate over Cousins without thinking about it.

Right, because those quarterbacks win games.  Close games.  Big Games.  Cousins cannot and has not done that.

Let's dissect this argument as it pertains to Cousins by looking at overall regular season wins over the past three seasons.  Since 2015 Kirk Cousins has won 24 regular season games, which is slightly above the average of 23 for this group.  But Cousins needs to be averaging 10 wins a year to be considered elite enough for a large contract.  Right?  That would add up to 30+ wins over three years, yet there are only three quarterbacks out of this group who have won 30 or more regular season games since 2015.  Tom Brady (36).  Cam Newton (32).  And......................you guessed it.....Alex Smith (31).  Weird, right?  Brady is the best quarterback of all time, but would you automatically call Cam Newton elite, or just a winner because he has a great team around him?  And what do you call Alex Smith, lucky?  It is clear that a quarterback can win a lot of games if the right team is around them, and for Cousins he has not had that since he has been a starter.

Much has been made about the Redskins defense and running game being sub par this season, and that Cousins has achieved in spite of this.  Looking back at the last three seasons the story is much worse.  Since 2015 Cousins has won 24 games despite being one of only three quarterbacks to never have had a top 10 rushing offense or defense to support them.  The other two are Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.  Also, Cousins is one of four quarterbacks to have only one season (2016 where the Redskins inexplicably averaged 106 rushing yards per game) where his rushing offense averaged over 100 yards or his defense averaged below 20 point per game.  The other three quarterbacks are Phillip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Matt Stafford.  None of these quarterbacks have won more than 25 games since 2015, so Cousins's total wins are on par with what one would expect with the supporting cast he has been given.  And for all the knocks on Cousins, he has been able to win close games.

It may be surprising to know that Cousins has 11 wins where he led the Redskins on a 4th quarter drive that put them ahead for the last time in the game.  Only Derek Carr and Matt Stafford have more of those wins than Cousins, and ironically Stafford has one against the Redskins.  This shows that Cousins has the mettle to win tight games, and he had chances to show that this season in the games against Kansas City and Seattle.  Yes, Cousins has shown a propensity for losing in big game situations, and it has been particularly acute over the past two seasons.  But these stats show that he is among the elite quarterbacks over the past three seasons, and the question is, if not Cousins then who?

The Redskins have no choice but to keep Cousins because of his stats and the talent that is out there as replacements.  Out of the 19 quarterbacks listed above only Drew Brees will be a UFA this offseason and the Saints will probably keep him. But maybe Case Keenum did not need the best defense in the NFL this year to put up those stats.  Maybe Teddy Bridgewater can end his 2 year medical sabbatical in DC.  I'm sure Jay Cutler would like to avoid real life for one more year, and Sam Bradford could blow his knee out in a new city.  The rest of the gems on the 2018 Free Agent market are not worth noting, but we would probably be in rebuilding mode and looking to draft someone for the future.  Maybe Baker Mayfield can grab his junk for the FedEx Faithful and run for more than 13 touchdowns.  Maybe Luke Falk can throw for 4,000 yards in the next four years.  Maybe Dan Snyder can end his Robert Griffin withdrawal and draft Lamar Jackson.  Maybe playing New Mexico every year prepared Josh Allen to lead a 4th quarter comeback in the NFL.  But all of these maybe's go to the fact that the Redskins have no choice.  There are no maybe's with Kirk Cousins.  He has proven himself at the highest level to be able to contend with the best this league has to offer, and there are no choices involved with the Redskins other than keeping Kirk Cousins in DC.

Kirk Cousins Has No Option But to Stay in DC

The Kirk Cousins Saga will come to its glorious zenith once the Redskins finish their season against the Giants this Sunday and he is allowed to begin free agent negotiations.  In the DC area, the conjecture surrounding the fate of Kirk Cousins over the past three seasons has only been eclipsed by the theories surrounding Game of Thrones and The Last Jedi, and this season the maelstrom of rumors has been centered on what Kirk has said over the past three months regarding his status with the Redskins organization.  But this approach only looks at what Kirk has said to the detriment of looking at what kind of person Kirk is.  A great Spots Illustrated article by Greg Bishop gives a good glimpse at Cousins's personality and it is very telling.  He is someone who face timed into a QB meeting from the delivery room of a hospital while his son was being born.  He has his day planned out in 15 minute increments.  He has a brain coach.  Cousins is someone who is overly regimented and draws his energy from the process he uses to get himself into peak performance.  So why would Cousins mess that process up by going somewhere else?  And, more importantly, would those situations be any better suited to his process or psyche than staying in DC?  Lets look at all possible suitors by breaking them into categories and showing why the alternatives leave Cousins with no option but to stay with the Redskins.

Category 1: The Ghosts of RGIII (Denver, Cleveland, Buffalo)

These teams seem promising for Cousins, but all of them would more than likely carry an incumbent QB into the 2018 season that may have Cousins needing 10 hours of sleep a night in his hyperbaric 

chamber to keep his beta levels in order (read the SI article).  Does Cousins want the Ghost of RGIII looking over his shoulder again?  For all of Denver's upsides they will probably hold on to Paxton Lynch for this year considering he has a $4 Million dead cap hit, and they may want to keep an insurance policy.  Cleveland will probably hold on to Deshone Kizer for the same reason, and because he is only finishing his rookie season.  Tyrod Taylor carries an extra $10 Million in dead cap money until 2021 if he is not on the roster after the 2018 season so it can be assumed that the Bills would want to keep him for next year and beyond.  Cousins seems to be a calculating individual who has played his way out of situations like this, and it is not worth it for him to go to a place like this even if Cleveland can offer a huge contract.

Category 2: Uncharted Waters (Cincinnati, Arizona, NY Jets, Miami)

Cousins's brain coach will need to be working overtime if he chooses to leave DC for one of these destinations.  All of these teams carry uncertainties that Cousins and his camp must be weighing against the known evil that lies in Ashburn, Virginia.  Arizona was one of the obvious alternatives for Cousins in the beginning of this season, but with Bruce Arians almost certainly on his way out can Cousins afford to take a gamble on an coach to be named later and hope that they gel?  This is ditto for Cincinnati's situation where Marvin Lewis looks to be ending his 15 year reign as head coach.  Miami would have to take a big step and release Ryan Tannehill, which is a maybe at best, and Cousins would also be stepping onto a Dolphins team with a second year head coach that is taking on water at the moment.  The Jets are very intriguing as far as salary cap space goes, but with Jermaine Kearse, an aging Matt Forte, and soon-to-be-free-agent Austin Serferian-Jenkins as the Jets's main skill players on offense it seems to be a lateral move from DC at best.  Even with that cap space to possibly sign some free agents, remember that the Jets drafted Christian Hackenberg to be the future.  So these teams have many uncertainties surrounding their situations that makes the known situation of the Redskins better than the unknown of these teams

Category 3: Replacing the Legend (NY Giants, New Orleans, Pittsburgh)

These teams present Kirk with the question of legacy.  It is plausible that the Giants could move on from Eli, Brees is a UFA at the end of this season, and there are rumors that Roethlisberger may retire after this season, especially if he wins his third Super Bowl this year.  It would be intriguing for Kirk to go to a ready made winner, but would Kirk be able to handle that kind of pressure?  Cousins will need to really amend his process to accommodate for the media lashing that will come when he falls short of being "the guy who came to replace the legend".  And, more importantly, does Cousins want to carry that moniker with him in the latter end of his career?  Even if he is able to win a Super Bowl in New York or Pittsburgh (which would be the standard he will be held to), the narrative will always be that it was not as many as Manning or Roethlisberger.  Brees only won one, but Cousins could never endear himself to that fan base the way Brees has over his career.  He will always play the step dad role in these cities.  Couple this with Odell Beckham's prima donna attitude, Pittsburgh's horrendous cap space situation, and Le'Veon Bell's own franchise tag free agency hangover, and a ready made winner may not be better than trying to build here in DC.  If New Orleans came calling, though, it may be hard to turn down, but it would still carry the baggage of replacing a legend.

Category 4: High Expectations (Jacksonville, Minnesota)

It maybe the first time ever that the Jacksonville Jaguars are associated with the term "high expectations", but if Kirk were to go there he would need to get the left side of his brain in full gear to tone down his inner monologue. The current AFC South Champions would expect, with no major free agents to sign other than Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson and a returning high octane defense, that Kirk Cousins would come in and improve them right away based on his performance over the past three years.  If Cousins were to fall short of wherever the Jags finish this season it would spell instant disaster for Cousins based on the price tag he would demand.  It would be the same situation with the Vikings who have the defense and the skill players to get the job done next season, and all three of their current quarterbacks are UFA's at the end of this season.  Minnesota would be intriguing for Kirk because they have the cap space and a ready made team for him to succeed, but if that success does not come right away Kirk would be an instant scapegoat.  Would Kirk be able to perform with the expectation that he needs to win his division or else there will be disappointment?  And, could Kirk handle being called a bust after one season due to his big contract and hypothetical mediocre record?  With all of these teams considered there is only one option.

All of these teams' current situations show that Cousins has no option but to stay in DC.  The Redskins have the means to give him a large long-term contract, and if not they could still franchise him and limit his options once again.  The Redskins, though, do not have a possible replacement that Cousins would need to dispossess.  The Redskins coaching staff is relatively stable, and most of his offensive weapons will be back next year.  Expectations in DC will be high no matter what, but they will not come with special caveats that will put a higher premium on winning in the short term for relative strangers who would not fully appreciate what Cousins brings.  Kirk Cousins draws his energy from his self imposed daily routine, and moving to another team may require a drastic change to that routine that would require time that Cousins may not have in a new setting given the limitations stated above.  For Kirk Cousins to remain successful with the least amount of stress put on him and his process, his only option is to stay with the Washington Redskins.

Kirk Cousins's Value Is Dropping

Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?  Good.  This is a quasi rhetorical question but I had to ask it in order for you to be in the right frame of mind to buy into my premise, which is that the teams trading up to take rookie quarterbacks in the first round in the NFL Draft have harmed Kirk Cousins's market value.  It may sound crazy, but ask yourself that question again.  Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?  Do you believe him when he told JP Finley almost a month ago that the trade rumors surrounding Cousins were false?  One look at that one minute interview gives you an uneasy feeling about Allen's stance on Cousins's contract situation.  So it is not far fetched to think that the rumors stating that the Redskins were talking to the Browns about trading Kirk Cousins held some shred of truth.  It is also likely that, despite Allen's vehement denials, the Redskins may have thrown some lines out to other teams before the Draft to see if they would bite on a trade for Cousins.  If you believe these statements then Cousins and his agent, at the very least, had to assume that the Redskins were looking for trades as well.  If that is the case then Mike McCartney may need to rethink how to approach the calculation Cousin's market value based on the trades that happened in the First Round of the Draft.

The trades the Bears and Texans made to move up in the draft to select rookie quarterbacks have indirectly harmed Kirk Cousins's market value.  Let's assume that the Redskins at least talked to the Texans and Bears about a possible trade for Kirk Cousins before the Draft (remember: Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?).  The Bears and Texans had ample resources and equally crappy quarterback situations that the Redskins probably exploited in the form of trade talks for Kirk Cousins.  If that is the case then the Texans trade for Deshaun Watson states that Cousins is not worth the 2018 first round pick that they gave up to get Watson.  Maybe the Texans didn't think that the Redskins's 17th pick would be high enough to have Watson still on the board, but it can be reasoned that the Texans were willing to trade their 2018 first round pick for Watson but not for a guy who has had back to back 4500 yard passing season in the NFL.  The Bears trade puts even more of a damper on Cousins's value.

Let's assume that the Redskins reached out to the Bears about a trade for Cousins before the Bears signed Mike Glennon (remember: Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?).  If that is the case then the Bears trade to get Mitch Trubisky devalues Cousins market value further.  If the Bears declined a trade for Cousins then subsequently gave up only a 3rd and 4th round pick this year, plus their 3rd round next year to the 49ers for another unproven quarterback then it reinforces the notion that Cousins may not be worth giving up high drat picks on the open market.  Now, the Bears gave up those picks knowing they had Glennon on the roster, but if the Redskins offered the Bears a trade for Cousins before the Mike Glennon deal then you would have to assume that the Redskins asked for something higher than what the Bears gave up for Trubisky.  This would show, again, that another team with a questionable quarterback situation was willing to give up draft picks for an unproven rookie rather than for Kirk Cousins.  Both of these situations, if true, could make it so that Cousins may be sobered by his market value a year from now.

The Texans could have traded their 2018 first round pick for Cousins and then see where that took them.  The Bears could have traded their 2018 first round pick to get Cousins AND possibly could have still drafted Trubisky at the third pick this year.  But both teams balked at that notion.  The Redskins could have had a higher asking price in these hypothetical trade scenarios that turned off the Texans and Bears trading for Cousins, but that supports the notion that teams are unwilling to give up a lot for Cousins and are not willing to wait and see if he hits the open market.  Why pay a soon-to-be 30 year old quarterback $24 million per year with $50-60 million plus guaranteed over the next five years when, according to Jason Belzer of Forbes Magazine, the Bears will only have to pay out $29 million total for the duration of Trubisky's rookie contract?  If this is true then this may be the first blemish on Kirk Cousins's master plan.

The pervasive narrative that has surrounded the Kirk Cousins contract negotiations is that Bruce Allen has botched it from the beginning in giving Cousins two consecutive franchise tags.  This weekend's Draft, however, may be hinting that Allen is playing a long game with these tags that may end up in the Redskins favor.  Whether you believe the Redskins offered Cousins in trade to the Texans or the Bears, the fact is now there are two less suitors to help drive up the price for Cousins's services come next off season.  Couple that with one early 2018 mock draft stating that there could be four quarterbacks taken in the first round next year (and that is not counting whether or not Lamar Jackson decides to leave Louisville early), and the cap situation next year for all NFL teams and Kirk Cousins and Mike McCartney may need to have a serious talk about what the actual market value will be come the 2018 off season.  Who is going to pay a 30 year old Kirk Cousins $50-60 million plus in guarantees over 5 years when they can just draft a quarterback for a fourth of that cost?  And if there are a limited amount of teams willing to bid on Cousins's services, then why not bid low and see what happens if the team is looking to spend money elsewhere?  All of this is dependent upon what transpires through this season, but two teams have already passed on Cousins for what seem to be statistically inferior alternatives.  What will happen next year when the rookie talent pool is bigger, better, and the free agent market is a little more flush with talent?  Cousins could be staring down the grim reality that Allen may have manipulated his contract situation through the use of the franchise tags in a way that made him less valuable on the open market when and if he is finally allowed to hit free agency.  The question then may not be whether you believe what Bruce Allen says, it may be "Was Bruce Allen right all along about the market value of Kirk Cousins?".

Remove the Tags and Buy Kirk Cousins

The Kirk Cousins Free Agency Saga has come to a head over the past week.  There is no future scenario too far fetched to be plausible for the Redskins's upstart quarterback who finds himself atop the free agency mountain this season with a host of suitors waiting to see what the Redskins decide to do with him between now and March 1.  The public conjecture about which tag the Redskins will put on Cousins obfuscates the the ultimate decision facing Scot McCloughan as open free agency approaches.  Cousins needs a contract if he is to suit up for the Burgundy and Gold in 2016 or leave for greener pastures. No Transition Tag.  No Franchise Tag.  For Scot McCloughan it is either keep Cousins or don't keep Cousins.  The Transition Tag makes no sense and the Franchise Tag could place the Redskins in a position that would go against the public perception of what McCloughan is trying to build within the locker room.

If McCloughan has any acumen as an NFL GM he has to see that placing the Transition Tag on Kirk Cousins is worthless, reckless, and bad for negotiations.  Placing the transition tag on Cousins merely gives the Redskins the right to match any offer that is given to him by another team in free agency.  If Cousins decides to leave the Redskins get nothing in return.  This renders the Transition Tag worthless to the Redskins's negotiating position because all it would do is reaffirm a limit for Cousins that the Redskins should already have in mind.  It is reckless because, by all accounts, the Transition Tag will carry a minimum one year contract worth roughly $17 million if Cousins stays with the Redskins and cannot get a long term deal.  Some say that this will give the Redskins an idea of what Cousins's actual market value is, but the Redskins should already know what the market value is.  Cousins is the hottest free agent on the market, and McCloughan must know that the Rams, 49ers, and Browns all have over $40 million in cap space and crappy quarterback situations.  Of course these teams would like to get Cousins for less than $17 million per year, but by placing the Transition Tag on Cousins the Redskins will artificially set the market value at a price that they have publicly hinted that they may not want to exceed.  What is another $2-3 million per year to teams that are desperate for a quarterback and have a lot of cap space to burn?  Placing the Transiton Tag on Cousins would be daring teams that drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round, signed Blaine Gabbert as a back up, and gave Nick Foles the keys to the franchise to outbid you for the rights to a proven passer.  I don't think these three teams will be modest with their offers to Kirk Cousins, and if he gets the Transition Tag he is all but gone without any compensation for the Redskins. The Franchise Tag carries compensation if Cousins leaves, but it may leave the Redskins in a purgatory come September if no deal is reached.

Franchising Cousins makes sense on the surface.  It would put a steep price on Cousins that no team is dumb enough to give up, and if they are I will be the first one to say bon voyage to Cousins as he exits Redskins Park.  But let's assume that no team is willing to match the $20 million price tag and give up two first round draft picks to sign him.  Advantage Redskins.  The Franchise tag also gives the Redskins until July 15 to get a long term deal done.  Another plus in the Redskins's favor, but if no deal gets done by July 15, however, it may undo all that the Redskins built last season.  With all the talk about what Cousins's contract will be now, just imagine what the atmosphere will be like throughout next season when after every game Jay Gruden will field questions about how Kirk's performance impacts his future contract.  Kirk can say he will be about playing games if he is Franchised, but that is like dating a porn star and saying that you don't really think about sex all that much.  Everyone will perceive that it is in the back of your mind and constantly ask you about your situation.  Also, how does it look for the Redskins if they have intimated all off season that they do not want to break the bank for Cousins and turn around and pay him $20 million.  And what will happen next season when Cousins has no contract again and they also need to resign Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed?  The Redskins would not exactly be able to skimp on the contracts of Reed and Cousins at that point, especially if they have comparable seasons to 2015.  There is the possibility of Franchising Cousins and then trading him, but that move would highlight the underlying dangers of not signing Cousins to a contract.

If Cousins is Franchised and traded, or Transition Tagged and allowed to walk, or God forbid allowed to walk outright, the perception will be that the Redskins do not want to pay up.  What message does that send to other quarterbacks around the league?  That they need to at least make the NFC Championship Game by the end of their contract to get paid, and even then the mantra may be that McCloughan will not over pay one position?  That could deter free agents from wanting to sign here, and it may make Washington less attractive for rookies in the future.  And what about the players who have come out in support of Cousins getting paid?  It may not be in Garcon and Baker's best interest to advocate for a big contract for Cousins considering their contracts will be up next year, but they did it anyways.  These guys are leaders on the team who expressed their loyalty to Cousins, and if McCloughan's ideal is to foster a unified locker room with a sense of continuity within the roster he would do well to listen to his players and pay the guy they have pegged as their leader.  

For McCloughan, this could all be formality.  He should already have a decision in his mind because he knows that he has no bargaining position in this matter.  Cousins and his camp hold all the cards, and they probably will not budge from a highly guaranteed 4-5 year contract because they know he can get that elsewhere.  So for McCloughan it is simple.  Remove the tags from your mind and buy on Kirk Cousins.