The Josh Norman Signing May Have Big Consequences

Just when you thought that the Redskins have reformed their ways and they will act more prudent in the free agent market, the major free agents come knocking like some old girlfriend who knows she will at least be let in the door and the Redskins are all too happy to oblige.  Two years ago it was DeSean Jackson.  While people were skeptical about that signing this team would be in a very different spot without him and his contract did not break the bank.  Last year it was Junior Galette. Galette still needs to prove himself after his season ending injury but the Redskins got him at a big discount.  So if Galette can produce anything it will be a win for Scot McCloughan.  The signing of Josh Norman, though, is different.  Norman is being brought in to be the man and he is being paid as such.  His 5 year, $75 million contract makes him one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the league, and he is being brought in on a whirlwind courtship that began roughly 48 hours after Carolina decided to rescind the franchise tag on him.  To top it all off, the Norman signing used up eight of the eleven million dollars in cap space the Redskins had for this season.

This is vintage Redskins free agency; get the best guy for a lot of money no matter the repercussions. There was no way Norman was leaving Ashburn without a contract, and it was the right move to make, but it is the repercussions that need to be examined because this signing leaves the Redskins with very little room to maneuver within the Salary Cap.  The makeup of the Redskins roster and draft board will be shaken up by this signing, and the fallout from these changes may give the Redskins Brass a better negotiating position come next Spring.  Let's look at what could happen in the next few days leading up to the Draft:

1) Gacron and/or Jackson are all but gone.  I hate to say this, but it makes the most financial sense.  Either Jackson, Garcon, or both will not be playing for the Redskins come September.  Both are free agents at the end of next season anyway, and cutting Garcon alone will free up $8 million in cap space.  Jackson will only account for $6 million if he is let go.  It will be a hard decision because the Redskins need to weigh Jackson's deep threat ability with Garcon's toughness in the red zone and leadership qualities.  Whichever receiver is let go, look for any combination of Perry Riley, Logan Paulsen, and Chris Baker to follow them out the door as they are also slated to be UFA's at the end of the 2016 season and cutting them can add more cap space for the Redskins.

2) The Redskins will not be trading for more picks.  That is unless they can free up cap space by cutting players.  The projected cap hit (scroll down to the very bottom for the draft pick cap cost) for the Redskins current draft picks is $5.6 million, and if you factor those players into the Redskins current cap situation the Redskins are about $7 million over the cap.  McCloughan simply cannot afford to sign the 11-12 players he wants to draft unless he makes massive roster changes and restructures.  If there are not massive cuts made before Thursday, look for the Redskins to stand pat.

3) The Redskins will take at least two WR's in the draft, and one of them will be in the first three rounds.  This will be especially true if Garcon and Jackson are let go.  Even if they are not, it is hard to foresee Garcon and Jackson both being on this roster after this season due to the impending expiration of the contracts of Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed after this season.  The Redskins need to be thinking long term especially with Cousins's contract looming.  Speaking of quarterbacks.......

4) Do not be surprised if the Redskins draft a quarterback before the fifth round.  I sincerely hope this is not the case, but it will not be surprising given the circumstances.  The Redskins only have two quarterbacks on the roster for next season; one of whom is on a lucrative, yet tentative, one year contract and another who looks to be a backup for the remainder of his NFL tenure.  The Redskins may decide to draft an insurance policy that they could go forward with if the Cousins situation cannot be resolved by the end of next season, and the Norman signing has put Cousins contract negotiations in a precarious position.

5) The Norman Signing puts Kirk Cousins in a Catch-22.  Whether intentionally or unintentionally, the Redskins front office has put Kirk Cousins in a position where the only outcome will be the Redskins offering him less money again whenever they decide to sit down and negotiate.  Lost in the drunken celebration of the Josh Norman signing is the nugget that he will count $20 million against the cap next year.  The Redskins were skiddish about giving Cousins a long term $20 million per year contract before this signing, and now they will be even more leery of opening up the checkbook due to the sizable amount of money that Norman will be receiving next year.  The Catch-22 comes from the fact that there is nothing that Cousins's play can do to stop this low balling from happening.  Let's assume that the Redskins cut either Jackson or Garcon, and Cousins has a monster season throwing to the one that stays and Jordan Reed.  Reed and Jackson/Garcon's contract will be up at the end of the season, and it is not far fetched to think that the Redskins will low ball Cousins under the guise of The Redskins needing to resign the parts that made him successful.  If Cousins's play is mediocre then that alone will justify the Redskins throwing a low ball offer at Cousins, especially if they draft a quarterback who they think could do just as well for less money in the short term.  If the low ball offers come at the end of next season, it could be that Cousins decides to fly his bombing missions for someone else, and a big part of that could be due to the money they paid Norman putting a stangle hold on the salary cap.

The Redskins made the right move in signing Josh Norman, but the after effects of this signing will be felt for years to come.  It is up to McCloughan, and the Redskins front office, to make prudent decisions that will allow this team to operate within the salary cap.  That could mean that one or more of the above situations may happen, all because of the Redskins doing what they do best winning the offseason championship.

Redskins Draft Special

There are very few events that get their own countdown on ESPN.com.  The NFL draft is one of those events, and while the NFL has bastardized the Draft by spreading it out over multiple days it is still pegged as one of the premier prognosticating events for sports analysts.  With the Redskins publicly stating that they want to acquire four more picks than they have already, Mel Kiper may need to bring an extra can of pomade to keep his hair down trying to analyze the Redskins draft moves.  But trades are too complex to try and predict when they will happen, how they will happen, and with which of the other 31 teams the Redskins will deal with, so let's analyze the draft as if the Redskins will not trade any of their picks.  Here are the players SweetDCSports believes the Redskins should take at each position if the player is available, and not counting if they decide to trade out of that position.

Note: All scouting information came from CBS Sports and NFL Combine Results Page.  I used the projected rankings at each position on the CBS site to determine who would possibly be available in each round.  For example, If CBS projected someone to go in the 3rd round then I did not factor them being available to the Redskins in the 4th round.  Enjoy.

Round 1 (21st Overall Selection):  Andrew Billings    DT    (Baylor)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 311 lbs   40 yd: 5.05   Bench Press: 31 reps

The Redskins need to think long term at nose tackle after the departure of Terrance Knighton and Billings seems to be the right guy for the job.  His freakish strength allows him to overpower lineman, and he has a quick first step that allows him to elude his initial blocker.  Known for his closing speed and elite run stopping ability, Billings was also able to have his best pass rushing season in 2015 with 5.5 sacks.  He also fits the frame of a McCloughan type player: high motor, violent playmaker, durable (played 86 of 90 snaps against Oklahoma).  His shortcomings are that he has been noted to give up on plays if his initial rush proves unsuccessful, and he has trouble changing direction if the play gets past him.  He is also young.  He left Baylor after his true Junior year and he just turned 21 years old.  There may be concerns about his youth and how well he will acclimate to NFL life, but with Chris Baker and Kedric Golston in the locker room he would have great role models to help him out.

Billings would give the Redskins a nasty presence inside that will open up pass rush lanes for guys like Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Galette, and Preston Smith.  He also adds quickness in the middle of the line that will improve the line's ability to close in on running backs at the point of attack.  I think he is a much better fit for the Redskins than Jarran Reed and Sheldon Rankins, and if Billings is off the board before the Redskins are up look for McCloughan to trade down and possibly take Vernon Butler in the second round.  If Billings is available, though, I cannot see McCloughan passing on him due to the Redskins need for a true nose tackle to anchor the defensive line.


Round 2 (53rd Overall Selection):  Keanu Neal    Safety   (Florida)
Height: 6'0"   Weight: 211 lbs   40 yd: 4.62   Vertical: 38"

It maybe unrealistic to think that Keanu Neal falls to the Redskins at the 53rd pick. This could be a scenario where the Redskins trade down from their first round pick to put themselves in a position to get one of the higher ranked safeties, but Keanu Neal has to be the one the Redskins are looking at for their second round pick.  The Redskins are coming into the 2016 season with only four safeties total on their roster, and Neal provides a flexible luxury of having played both strong and free safety at Florida. While his 2015 stats do not pop out at you (83 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) maybe his highlight tape will show you why the Redskins should take him.  Scouts note that he is an enforcer that likes to bring the wood, which is evident in a lot of the hits he lays in this video.  It is concerning that half of the hits involve Neal dropping his shoulder and not wrapping up on tackles in space that will not fly in the NFL, but he shows the ability to be at least a serviceable strong safety. He also shows the ability to cover a wide range of field and he shows a knack for getting to the ball.  Finally, his size is second to none and he is characterized as a high motor guy who rarely fatigues.

Think of what the Redskins could do with a guy who can be interchanged at the safety positions, someone who can bring a physical presence on the edges of the defense, and run down wide receivers and running backs in the open field and make them pay with big hits.  Keanu Neal brings that type of presence to a secondary that was beleaguered at times in 2015.  His 6'0", 211 pound, long armed frame means he can match up with NFL wide receivers, and he boasts one of the best vertical jumps for safeties at the combine this year.  If he is available at 53 the Redskins would be crazy to pass on him, and I think he is a safer choice than Karl Joseph of West Virgina due to Jospeh's knee injury sidelining him since October.  McCloughan has to use an early pick to upgrade the safety position and Keanu Neal will be the best pick for the Redskins if they can get him.

Round 3 (84th Overall Selection):  Jerald Hawkins    OT   (LSU)
Height: 6'6"   Weight: 305 lbs   40 yd: 5.23   Bench Press: 23 reps

Hawkins possesses a lot of the attributes that you would want in a third round offensive tackle.  He has a season's worth of experience at both right an left tackle against SEC competition.  Hawkins's footwork allows him to get to his spots quickly, and his lateral movement gives him strengths in defending against speed pass rushers and opportunistic run defenders.  He has long arms that give him an imposing frame and he is quick off the snap, which allows him to set his blocks with a strong grip and hand placement.  And the knocks on him are even more promising.  Scouts have said that he lacks the proper strength to operate in the run game and to sustain blocks past the first level of run support.  Strength can be acquired through training and proper motivation.  The other minus against Hawkins in that his physical frame is too narrow and that there is limited potential for strength growth.  But as Yoda once said "Size matters not....Judge me by my size, do you?".

Hawkins's footwork and experience more than make up for his lack of elite level strength, and he would have time to develop his strength considering that he would not need to start right away.  The Redskins go into the 2016 season with only three true offesnive tackles, and Hawkins provides the luxury of having played both tackle positions at an elite level.  While Joe Haeg (North Dakota State) may provide better quickness, and John Theus (Georgia) may have slightly more experience, Jerald Hawkins can provide both with limitations that can easily be remedied.  McCloughan needs to start thinking about how to restock depth on the offensive line and Hawkins seems like a perfect fit for the Skins in the third round

Round 4 (120th Overall Selection):  Eric Murray    DB   (Minnesota)
Height: 5'11"   Weight: 199 lbs   40 yd: 4.49   Vertical: 39.5"

It may be tempting for McCloughan to take a running back at this position, but Murray seems to be a more solid pick than the projected fourth round running backs.  The Redskins need to add some depth at the corner position with Culliver coming off an injury riddled 2015 season, and Murray fits the bill of the players McCloughan is trying to recruit.  A three year starter at Minnesota, Murray was also named team captain his senior year and was lauded for his commitment on and off the field.  Murray is well versed in multiple coverage schemes, and while he only amassed two interceptions over his college career he was also able to break up 24 passes.  Scouts note Murray's superior coverage techniques as a byproduct of his penchant for watching film and diagnosing routes.  Murray also brings tenacity when stopping the run, where he consistently fights through blocks to bring the ball carrier down.  He does run a bit small at 5'11", and scouts note his lack of hip quickness when breaking out of his back pedal which may lead to Murray getting beat by vertical routes at the pro-level.  Murray, though, brings a huge upside of leadership, experience, confidence, and consistency that McCloughan has seemed to covet in his draft picks.

This is an area where if the Redskins trade down they could have their cake and eat it too.  Alex Collins, running back out of Arkansas, looks intriguing in this area as well, and if the Redskins are able to trade down and get extra picks in the fourth round we may see the Redskins select a CB and RB.  If the Redskins decide to stand pat, though, or only possess one pick in the fourth round it has to be Murray if he is available.  He possesses too much football IQ and versatility, Murray started 13 games on special teams his freshman year where he blocked two kicks, for the Redskins to pass him up.  Murray would add a wealth of experience and leadership to the Redskins secondary, and give them depth at a position that was hampered by injuries in 2015.

Round 5 (158th Overall Selection):  Willie Beavers   OT   (Western Michigan)
Height: 6'4"   Weight: 324 lbs   40 yd: 5.28   Bench Press: 20 reps

Depth at offensive tackle is a major area of need that the Redskins have, and they need to think about taking more than one in the 2016 Draft.  The Redskins would find themselves in a fortuitous position if Beavers was waiting for them at the 158th pick.  Do not let where he played turn you off.  Beavers possesses great quickness that allows him to set his blocks early and get down the field on runs and screen plays.  He has shown the ability to hold his block for as long as he can, and he does not quit when he initially gets beat off of the line.  Scouts note his ability to process defensive stunts and blitzes and react to them before they can cause havoc.  Finally, Beavers possesses the experience that McCloughan prefers in his selections.  Beavers is a redshirt senior who started 40 games at left tackle for the Broncos, and scouts at the Combine noted that he has the ability to play all over the offensive line given proper coaching.

The coaching part is where Bill Callahan will have to work his magic.  Beavers's weakness comes from his overly aggressive style of play.  He tends to get himself out of position because he is too gung ho in trying to set his blocks when the defenders are being more tentative and not coming right at him.  Callahan is the man for the job, though, and Beavers could blossom into a serviceable backup tackle for his first few NFL seasons.  With Beavers and Hawkins, the Redskins would have a viable insurance plan if Morgan Moses or Trent Williams goes down without having to force Kory Lichtensteiger to move away from Center where he has found a career renaissance.  Beavers could, emphasis on could, also become a viable option going forward as Trent Williams continues to get older.  His positional versatility, wealth of experience, and physical attributes would be a steal at this pick so do not be surprised if the Redskins take him earlier if they find trade partners to gain picks in the late fourth or earlier fifth round.

Round 6 (187th Overall Selection):  Darius Jackson   RB   (Eastern Michigan)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 220 lbs   40 yd: 4.35   Vertical: 41"   Broad Jump: 133"

There is nothing wrong with your screen. You are reading those numbers above correctly.  Jackson posted those numbers at Michigan's Pro Day because he was not invited to the NFL Combine. Fairly impressive for a guy his size considering his vertical jump would have been the eighth best ever by an RB at the Combine and his broad jump would be tied for fifth.  The reason Jackson may not be getting more national hype is because he only had one full season as a starting running back. That was this past season as a senior where he was able to gain 1078 yards and score 14 TD's, but most of that was against MAC competition and most of his runs came out of read option shotgun formations.  The low level of competition that he faced coupled with the scheme that he played in at Eastern Michigan may have devalued his draft status, but his highlight reel shows his top level speed and above average pass catching ability.  Jackson also shows that he can make people miss in the open field and can pass block when given the opportunity.

With Alfred Morris leaving this off season, the Redskins need to think about adding depth to this position.  Jackson's workout numbers may make some teams take him earlier than his projected 6th round status, and one of those teams should be the Redskins if they get the chance.  Jackson's coaches at Eastern Michigan stated that he is one of their best practice players, and he would be a perfect hybrid of size and speed to compliment Matt Jones and Chris Thompson.  Jackson should be a target for the Redskins, and if he is still available in the 6th round with the Redskins still not having picked a running back, McCloughan should give Jackson the call to move to DC.

Round 7 (232nd Overall Selection):  Ricardo Louis   WR   (Auburn)
Height: 6'2"   Weight: 215 lbs   40 yd: 4.43   Vertical: 38"   Bench Press: 18 reps

If Rich Tandler's proposed dilemma goes in Laquon Treadwell's favor, the Redskins may not give Ricardo Louis the time of day in the seventh round if he is still there.  But the Redskins have more urgent needs in other positions, and Ricardo Louis would be a decent pick for the Redskins at the end of the Draft.  Louis is the receiver who caught "The Prayer at Jordan-Hare" two years ago, and he has since developed himself into a serviceable wide out.  Louis saw an increased work load after Duke Williams was dismissed from Auburn this season, and Louis took advantage by catching 46 passes for 716 yards and three touchdowns.  He also was able to rush for 158 yards and score one rushing touchdown.  Louis is touted as a great YAC receiver that uses his speed off the line and physical size to get separation and make tough catches on the sideline.  He is also agile in space and is not afraid of being physical at the end of his runs.  He was also one of the top wide receivers at the combine in the 40, vertical jump, and bench press.  The reason he is not rated higher is due to major concerns about his catching ability.  Louis is noted as dropping easy passes due to loss of focus, and there are added concerns that Auburn's scheme allowed Louis to exploit coverages more so than his physical attributes.

Let's see. Big, physical receiver that is good after the catch and can use his size to be physical with defenders.  Good thing the Redskins don't already have a receiver like that with a $10M cap hit turning 30 this year.  Oh, wait.  Not only will Pierre Garcon be turning 30 and be without a contract next year, DeSean Jackson will also be meeting all of those criteria at the end of the 2016 season as well.  Louis would be a low risk, high reward pick that can take at least one season to try and get his shortcomings in order while not being asked to do much on the field.  Louis sounds like he could fill Garcon's spot if he were not to be retained, or be a welcome compliment if Garcon were to stay.  The Redskins should be looking at a receiver, but I hope it is later in the draft and they give Ricardo Louis a look.

Round 7 (242nd Overall Selection):  Darrell Greene   OG   (San Diego State)
Height: 6'3"   Weight: 321 lbs   40 yd: 5.20   Bench Press: 28 reps

This would not be just a nostalgic pick, but somewhere deep down you know that Dan Snyder wants this guy on our team simply because of his name.  Darrell Greene is a red shirt senior from San Diego State who started 25 straight games for the Aztecs until he was suspended for the first six games of the 2015 season due to a positive marijuana test.  Greene started the final seven games in 2015, but the damage had been done to his draft status.  While this aspect of his college career may not mesh with what McCloughan is trying to build with this team, Greene's play on the field seems to be right up his alley.  Greene utilizes his quick footwork and mean disposition to overpower defenders and get to the second level on run plays.  Greene has shown the ability to be a good pulling guard due to his above average footwork, and he has been noted as being a solid pass protector.  Marijuana aside, Greene does have limitations in his game that have given scouts pause on picking him too high.  His short arms have allowed longer armed defenders to outwork him at times and force him out of position, which he is something he will have to deal with on a more regular basis in the NFL.  His blitz pickup and blocking on the move has been called into question, as well, but the big red flag for McCloughan will probably be the drug test.

Greene passes the McCloughan on the field criteria.  An offensive lineman that plays to the whistle and overpowers his opponents with his strength and determination.  Hopefully, the Redskins do their job and look into the drugs allegations, but this should be someone whom the Redskins peg as a huge value pick if he is still available at the end of the draft.  The Redskins running game took a big hit last year when people became injured and they had to rearrange the offensive line.  Greene would add depth to this position, and he would also be someone the Redskins could develop over time.

Ovi's 50 Needs to Make History for All

Alex Ovechkin put himself in exclusive company against the Blues on Saturday night.  His hat trick all but assured his fourth consecutive, and sixth overall, Rocket Richard Trophy.  Granted, this trophy only came into existence in 1998, but since that time no other player has won it more than twice.  Ovechkin is now the third player in NHL history to score 50 goals seven or more times (Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky did it 9 times).  He is the first player in NHL history to score 50 or more goals in three consecutive seasons twice (2007-2010 and 2013-2016), but this seems less of an achievement when you realize that Gretzky had eight consecutive 50 plus seasons and Bossy's nine 50 goal seasons were consecutive as well.  What people need to be focusing on is the age at which Ovechkin is accomplishing these feats, for both good and bad reasons, and what history we want Ovechkin to be making as Capitals fans.

Although Gretzky and Bossy never had a lull in their 50 goal scoring seasons, Ovechkin has now outpaced them in terms of longevity.  Both Bossy and Gretzky saw their last 50 goal season come before age 30 (Gretzky at 28 and Bossy at 29).  Ovechkin has become only the 9th player in NHL history to score 50 goals at age 30 or older and the first to do so since Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006.  If you believe the notion that goal scoring is harder to come by these days, Ovechkin's 50 goals this season looks even more impressive since two of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history could not get 50 after 30 in an inferior defensive era.  But the "different era" argument is for those who wish to argue ad nauseam about the greatest of all time without really wanting to come to a consensus.  Ovechkin's goal scoring longevity will never surpass what made Bossy and Gretzky great, and Ovechkin is running out of time to achieve this in order to make him live eternally in the annals of NHL lore.

It may not have occurred to Capitals fans, but Ovechkin has yet to even play for a Stanley Cup.  That puts him on the short list with Jonathan Cheechoo, that is his real name, as being the only Rocket Richard winners to never have played in a Stanley Cup Final.  That takes a little bit of luster off of his 50 goal seasons when you realize that all other great goal scorers of this era were at least able to get their teams in position to win a championship, and most of them were able to scale the mountain top.  It is also sobering to know that only three players 30 or older have been able to score 50 goals and win a Stanley Cup in the same season.  They are Joe Sakic with the Avalanche in 2001, Joe Mullen with the Flames in 1989, and Phil Esposito with the Bruins in 1972.  All of this means that Ovechkin's time is running out, and remember that Father Time is undefeated.  While Ovechkin's 50 goals are an individual milestone it is the team's success that will put him into the stratosphere of NHL greats, and Ovechkin is playing with the best overall team of his career.  If Ovehckin cannot win it this year the future looks hazy, at best, as to what type of supporting cast he will have in his continued push for collective greatness. It is more than likely that we may see the departure of Jason Chimera and Dmitri Orlov this offseason, and what will Brian MacLellan do when  T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and Nate Schmidt are all looking for more money after the 2017 season?  If Ovechkin is to attain true greatness he will need to do what he did on Saturday night and lead the only NHL team he has ever known to their first Stanley Cup Championship.  If he does not, maybe he will donate all of his Rocket Richard Trophies to the Verizon Center so we can put them on display.

Please check out Jewels from the Crown where all of the goal scoring info was found.

Maryland's Most Important Piece May Not Stay

If Melo Trimble, Diamond Stone, and Robert Carter are smart they will stay at Maryland one more year.  According to Chad Ford's rankings on ESPN.com Melo and Carter are outside of the Top 50 prospects (Melo is #51 and Carter is #59), which means that they have a good shot at not being drafted if they decide to leave Maryland.  Stone is #18 in these rankings, which means he would probably get drafted somewhere in 2016, but someone at Maryland needs to show him what Jordan Williams is doing right now and it may make him think twice.  If all of them came back, though, they would all have a chance to increase their draft status by increasing their individual and team success.  Melo would finally have some backcourt depth to give him more rest during the game with the addition of freshman PG Anthony Cowan and SG Kevin Huerter.  Carter can have more exposure by not having to share minutes with Jake Layman, and by looking at Robert Carter's freshman year picture at Georgia Tech you would have to assume that he would put in the work to improve even more for next year.  Finally, Stone would get one more year to improve his rebounding ability and prove that he is a Top 10 pick with Melo and Carter helping him out in that capacity.  Finally, if all three came back Maryland would once again be a preseason Top 5 team with experience, and the shared team success they could generate in 2016-2017 would raise all ships come next year's draft.  But for all this short term prognosticating about whether or not these three will stay, Maryland should be looking at some telling portents about another member of the Terps that point to him leaving this program in the future.

Unless the Terps make at least one Final Four appearance within the next three years, Mark Turgeon may decide not to stay in College Park past his initial contract.  It has been apparent in some of Turgeon's press conferences this season that he seems tired.  Not that pissed off tired that comes from a losing streak, which the Terps suffered late in the season, but that dejected tired that comes from something missing in his personal life. This conjecture comes from a nugget that he gave in his press conference before the Kansas game.  Around the 6:00 mark Turgeon is asked about his time at Wichita State, and he professed his love for the city of Wichita stating that his wife loves the city and it was where his kids were born.  Then there is this Washington Post article by Kent Babb from June that outlines Turgeon's internal battle between his professional success and his personal life.  The article describes how coaching four teams in 17 years has made Turgeon miss special moments in his kids' lives and it has moved him to tears at times.  Finally, remember that Turgeon had a ton of family members come out to see the Terps play at Nebraska because Lincoln is a central point for most of his family that lives in Kansas and Iowa.  All of this points to Turgeon possibly not enjoying living in this area, and not enjoying the sacrifices he makes for the Maryland program if the returns are not going to be there in the future.

Turgeon is a competitor first.  He wants to win on the court more than anything, which is why he probably will not voluntarily leave for any job other than Kansas until he wins a championship here at Maryland.  But the Kent Babb article talks about Turgeon's honesty being his best quality as a coach, recruiter, and father.  Turgeon has three years left on his contract here at Maryland, and if there is no Final Four in that time then Turgeon may have to be honest with himself about what is best for him and his family.  His statements about Wichita and his tired press conferences hint that living in this area may be taking a larger toll on him that he expected.  He sees that his family is mostly located in the Midwest where he spent most of his life, and as his kids get older he may realize that it is not worth it to put himself and his family through the grind of trying to win at Maryland.  All of this can be assuaged by a Final Four appearance before his contract is up in 2019.  If that does not come, it is possible that Turgeon's personal life wins out over his desire for professional success and he walks away from the University of Maryland.

How Elitely Sweet It Is For The Terps

Savor the moment Terps fans.  This past weekend the Terps were able to beat two formidable, yet slightly over matched, teams to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since Steve Blake was at the helm.  They also were able to make this the twelfth straight NCAA tournament where they have won at least one game, which does not seem like much until you realize that the only team that has a longer streak is North Carolina at 14.  As good as it feels to revel in nostalgia, the Terps have a daunting task ahead of them if they are going to make College Park party like it is 2001.  The Final Four is a long way away given the three teams the Terps must face to get there, so let's start by analyzing the first team standing in Maryland's path because there is a good chance the Terps will not live past them.

Kansas: A bitter sweet draw for Mark Turgeon as he will face his alma mater for the first time as the Terps' signal caller.  The Jayhawks will be the toughest opponent the Terps have faced this tournament, and maybe all season, but the Terps will be Kansas's biggest challenge so far in the tournament as well.  It could prove to be a high flying game, and the Terps need to be on to keep pace.

The Bad News: Maybe you haven't heard, but Kansas is the top ranked team in the tournament and for good reason.  The Jayhawks like to play a patented Big 12 brand of basketball that involves taking and giving up a lot of shots.  The problem for the Terps is that they make a lot of the ones that they take and they defend a lot of the ones that they give up.  Kansas's regular season FG% was fifth in the nation at 49.6%, and they only gave up 39.7% to opponents.  Couple those numbers with a high assist rate, a savvy senior leader in Perry Ellis, and an 82 point per game average and you get a recipe for disaster for the Terps.  The Terps will be forced to move on defense against a team that can draw their forwards out of the paint with Ellis's range as a shooter, and with Maryland giving up a ton of offensive rebounds against Hawaii the Jawhawks should be licking their chops at the prospect of second chance points.  Kansas's quantity approach to offensive execution could lead to a massive point differential if Maryland is soft again underneath, and if they allow Kansas's defensive style to get to them.  Kansas takes intensity to the defensive end, where they are relentless on the ball defenders and like to clog the passing lanes.  The Terps do not do well against high pressure defensive teams, and Maryland will be susceptible to quick point swings if they are their normal turnover prone selves.  But as stated above the Terps present a unique challenge to Bill Self and the Jayhawks that they have not faced yet in this tournament.

The Good News: Kansas's flaws play right into Maryland's style of play.  The Terps shot 77% from the free throw line during the regular season, and while they strayed away from getting to the line late in the season they got back there with a vengeance in the first two rounds.  Kansas is all too eager to put their opponents on the charity stripe as their opponents average 21 free throws per game.  If Maryland can fill that average it may slow the game down enough for Kansas to get out of rhythm, and if the Terps can hit on their season average it may offset Kansas's ability to stymie Maryland's field goal accuracy.  While Kansas's defense is in your face, their losses have come from teams that are able to match their energy level.  Melo can get into the lane and distribute with the best of them, and the Terps proved that they can keep pace in a track meet with their game against UNC.  Granted the Terps lost that game, but hopefully they have learned something going through the Big 10 schedule.  Finally, the Terps's size in the front court will give the Jayhawks fits.  Carter and Layman can provide their own brand of inside/outside game to counter balance Ellis, and they both should be looking to drive the lane and draw contact.  Stone needs to prove his worth on the rebounding end, and Damonte Dodd will prove to be a tough defensive mathcup for Ellis.  Kansas has yet to see a team like this in the tournament, and if the Terps can start to hit on threes it could be an interesting day in Louisville.

Maryland wins if they can shoot over 25% from three, get 20 or more free throw attempts, and limit the Jayhawks to under 55 field goal attempts.  Maryland loses if they allow Kansas to be +10 or better in the rebounding margin, they have over 13 turnovers, and they allow Kansas to shoot over 20% from three.  Here's hoping the Terps are able to do the latter and stay in Kentucky for two more days. 

Maryland's Tournament Matchups

With all the hype, prognostication, denunciation, and relative conjecture that surrounds every pick in every NCAA tournament, I thought it best to try and simplify the process and break it down for all the Terps fans out there.  Considering that the college basketball groundhogs have now come out of their holes to see their shadows and said that Maryland has a good chance of not making out of the first weekend, I have decided to profile only the teams that Maryland could play this weekend in an attempt to give higher quality analysis of how they stack up against the Terps.  Here are the three teams that Maryland will, or could possibly, play this weekend and how the Terps should approach each team if they were to play them by diagnosing their play relative to the Terps' strengths and weaknesses.

South Dakota St.: One of the sleeper picks being thrown around because their nickname is the Jackrabbits and no one knows a damn thing about South Dakota except for Mount Rushmore.  NCAA tournament prognosticators are geeked up because they have that Northern Iowa vibe about them, and the Terps would do well to be cautious of this exotic team from the middle of nowhere.

The Bad News: Stouth Dakota St. likes to play at a slow and deliberate pace, and they like to play to the end of the shot clock.  They thrive on being efficient and tactical in their offensive sets, and the scouting reports say that they are very disciplined in their execution.  This is evident by their leading scorer (Mike Daum) coming off the bench, averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds in only 20 minutes per game.  They also run a lot of dribble drive kickout and pick and roll plays that try to free up shooters and give high percentage looks.  Two of their starters (George Marshall and Reed Tellinghuisen) are avid three point shooters who may look to have a field day if Maryland is their usual undisciplined selves in switching on defense.  Look for the Jackrabbits to slow the game down against the Terps, who could have a tough time on defense if South Dakota can shoot at a high percentage and limit the Terps' possessions by holding the ball.  The Jackrabbits' weaknesses, though, play right into Maryland's hands and they Terps may not have to adjust much if they get in rhythm.

The Good News: South Dakota St. is horribly undersized, with Daum being the only player over 6'6"who averages more than 20 minutes per game.  The scouting reports also note that they are not overly athletic and are susceptible to dribble penetration on defense, plus they rarely run any zone looks on defense.  Huge plus on all ends as the Terps are bigger, more athletic, and suck against any zone defense.  Turgeon should be dialing up his usual "Melo take the ball to the hoop" play and allowing Diamond Stone and Robert Carter to have a field day in the low block on an undersized team.  The Terps should attack the basket with impunity, and only settle for threes if the opportunity arises.  Jake Layman will also be a tough check for the Jackrabbits because of his size and range.  Turgeon should get him going early to try and pull some of their bigger defenders away from the basket to increase our rebounding ability, which can be suspect at times and could prove costly against a patient Jackrabbit offense.  South Dakota St. is also not particularly good in transition, so the Terps need to run when give the opportunity.

Maryland beats South Dakota St. if they just be themselves and put a premium on rebounding at both ends and not settling for long jump shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.  Maryland loses if they defend the perimeter loosely, have poor defensive switching on screens, and allow more than 10 second chance possessions due to offensive rebounds. 

Cal: The Maryland of the West except slightly better.  Cal has had it's ups and downs through the season, but they now have the eye of a couple of NCAA pundits who have the winner of this possible matchup between the Golden Bears and the Terps being a formidable opponent for Kansas.  Let's not get too ahead of ourselves, though, and focus on Cal.

The Bad News: Cal runs big. Very Big.  Their smallest starter is Senior Tyrone Wallace at 6'5", and he averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game.  The other four starters range from 6'6" to 7'1", and they either match or outpace the Terp's size at every position.  This is not good for Maryland who had real trouble with teams like Purdue that have big size inside that stymied their ability to drive the lane.  The Golden Bears' defense also boasts the second best 2 point FG% in the nation with teams only shooting 40.9% from inside the arc against them. Maryland is prone to self imposed scoring droughts through bad shot selection and turnovers.  It won't help that Cal will aid in that process through their tough defense.  Cal also has the nation's most dynamic freshman duo in Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown who average 12 and 15 points per game respectively.  Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, and Jake Layman will need to prove their defensive worth if Maryland is to stand a chance against The Golden Bears.  But for all Cal can give in the way of bad news, they do have shortcomings.

The Good News: Cal runs big.  Very Big.  Big enough to have very little consistent three point threats.  Jordan Mathews is their best outside shooter who averages six three points attempts per game, and Jabari Bird shoots over 40% from three for the season, but it is not their strong suit.  If Maryland can capitalize on their three point attempts, and make it a point to defend within the paint, they could force Cal out of their comfort zone.  The scouting report also emphasizes the fact that Cal can be stagnant when they lack transition opportunities and must operate in half court sets.  Sound familiar?  When the Terps are playing solid defense they have forced long possessions, and this could be especially true from a Cal team that does not assist well on most of it's baskets.  Forcing Cal to move the ball around and settle for jump shots could play in the Terps' favor if they are able to grab rebounds and win the 50-50 balls.  Finally, Cal is allowing teams to go to the free throw line at a high rate.  Opponents average about 21 free throw attempts against the Golden Bears, and for a team that shoots 75% from the foul line, Maryland should be looking to make contact any chance it gets.

Maryland wins if they shoot at least 20 free throws, they shoot above 30% from three, and win the 50-50 balls.  Maryland loses if they do not double the ball in the low post on defense, get a bland game from Layman, Carter, or Stone (they all need to show up), and if they do not score off of turnovers.


Hawaii: Aloha Haoles.  It is good to know that the Warriors will not have to travel relatively far to play in the last post season action they will see for another 2 years.  Hawaii has been banned from post season play in 2016-2017 after a former assistant was found to have falsified documents for a recruit.  This makes them desperate to make the most of the opportunity, and while they would be an easier matchup than Cal for the Terps, it will not be easy to beat them should the Warriors prove their worth against Cal.

The Bad News: The Rainbow Warriors rely on quick guard play to penetrate the lane off of screens and kick out to open shooters once the defense collapses.  Led by Junior Aaron Valdes and Senior Roderick Bobbitt, the Warriors rely on their back court speed and quickness to drive their offensive rhythm and their defensive opportunism.  Maryland, and Melo in particular, has trouble defending quick guards off of the dribble, and they also have trouble with collapsing into the key and leaving open perimeter shots due to poor defensive communication.  This is all gravy to the Warriors who are not shy about jacking up threes, and if they get hot from outside Maryland could be in for a long day. Valdes and Bobbitt also lead the way for the warriors in steals, where they are 30th in the nation averaging almost 8 steals per game, and they force around 14 turnovers per game.  Couple that with their best player (Stefan Jankovic) being a 6'11" stretch 4 who can shoot and score from the low block, and you get a recipe for disaster for a Terps team that has trouble leaving open jump shots off of dribble penetration, a propensity to throw long careless passes at the top of the 3-point line, and smaller athletes to check Jankovic.

The Good News: While the Warriors are not afraid to shoot threes, they are not particularly good at making them either.  Hawaii is shooting a lowly 32.7% from beyond the arc, which bodes well from Maryland's shaky perimeter defensive switching.  Hawaii is also lacks big scorers outside of Jankovic.  Their next two big guys are Mike Thomas and Sai Tummala who both average under 10 points per game ad are only listed at 6'7".  Carter, Layman, and Stone present a challenge because of their size and scoring ability.  Maryland should look to bully an undersized front court to settle for lower percentage shots from the outside, while at the same time deterring layups on the inside by filling their 5 block per game quota.  On the offensive end, these three create matchup problems galore for The Warriors.  One would assume that Jankovic would have to check Stone or Dodd, both of whom are able to draw fouls in the low block.  If Jankovic gets into foul trouble it may spell doom for the Rainbow Warriors.

Maryland wins if they get consistent production from their front court, limit turnovers from Trimble and Sulaimon, and swithc effectively on defense.  Maryland loses if they lose track of their defensive switches and give up easy baskets in the key sue to dribble penetration, allow Hawaii to shoot over 30% from three, and allow Hawaii to reach their 14 turnover per game average.

Hopefully, we will get to break down three more teams next week as the Terps look to make it out of the first weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2003.  Here's hoping that the Terps rekindle their first half of the season magic and make it to Louisville.

Remove the Tags and Buy Kirk Cousins

The Kirk Cousins Free Agency Saga has come to a head over the past week.  There is no future scenario too far fetched to be plausible for the Redskins's upstart quarterback who finds himself atop the free agency mountain this season with a host of suitors waiting to see what the Redskins decide to do with him between now and March 1.  The public conjecture about which tag the Redskins will put on Cousins obfuscates the the ultimate decision facing Scot McCloughan as open free agency approaches.  Cousins needs a contract if he is to suit up for the Burgundy and Gold in 2016 or leave for greener pastures. No Transition Tag.  No Franchise Tag.  For Scot McCloughan it is either keep Cousins or don't keep Cousins.  The Transition Tag makes no sense and the Franchise Tag could place the Redskins in a position that would go against the public perception of what McCloughan is trying to build within the locker room.

If McCloughan has any acumen as an NFL GM he has to see that placing the Transition Tag on Kirk Cousins is worthless, reckless, and bad for negotiations.  Placing the transition tag on Cousins merely gives the Redskins the right to match any offer that is given to him by another team in free agency.  If Cousins decides to leave the Redskins get nothing in return.  This renders the Transition Tag worthless to the Redskins's negotiating position because all it would do is reaffirm a limit for Cousins that the Redskins should already have in mind.  It is reckless because, by all accounts, the Transition Tag will carry a minimum one year contract worth roughly $17 million if Cousins stays with the Redskins and cannot get a long term deal.  Some say that this will give the Redskins an idea of what Cousins's actual market value is, but the Redskins should already know what the market value is.  Cousins is the hottest free agent on the market, and McCloughan must know that the Rams, 49ers, and Browns all have over $40 million in cap space and crappy quarterback situations.  Of course these teams would like to get Cousins for less than $17 million per year, but by placing the Transition Tag on Cousins the Redskins will artificially set the market value at a price that they have publicly hinted that they may not want to exceed.  What is another $2-3 million per year to teams that are desperate for a quarterback and have a lot of cap space to burn?  Placing the Transiton Tag on Cousins would be daring teams that drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round, signed Blaine Gabbert as a back up, and gave Nick Foles the keys to the franchise to outbid you for the rights to a proven passer.  I don't think these three teams will be modest with their offers to Kirk Cousins, and if he gets the Transition Tag he is all but gone without any compensation for the Redskins. The Franchise Tag carries compensation if Cousins leaves, but it may leave the Redskins in a purgatory come September if no deal is reached.

Franchising Cousins makes sense on the surface.  It would put a steep price on Cousins that no team is dumb enough to give up, and if they are I will be the first one to say bon voyage to Cousins as he exits Redskins Park.  But let's assume that no team is willing to match the $20 million price tag and give up two first round draft picks to sign him.  Advantage Redskins.  The Franchise tag also gives the Redskins until July 15 to get a long term deal done.  Another plus in the Redskins's favor, but if no deal gets done by July 15, however, it may undo all that the Redskins built last season.  With all the talk about what Cousins's contract will be now, just imagine what the atmosphere will be like throughout next season when after every game Jay Gruden will field questions about how Kirk's performance impacts his future contract.  Kirk can say he will be about playing games if he is Franchised, but that is like dating a porn star and saying that you don't really think about sex all that much.  Everyone will perceive that it is in the back of your mind and constantly ask you about your situation.  Also, how does it look for the Redskins if they have intimated all off season that they do not want to break the bank for Cousins and turn around and pay him $20 million.  And what will happen next season when Cousins has no contract again and they also need to resign Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed?  The Redskins would not exactly be able to skimp on the contracts of Reed and Cousins at that point, especially if they have comparable seasons to 2015.  There is the possibility of Franchising Cousins and then trading him, but that move would highlight the underlying dangers of not signing Cousins to a contract.

If Cousins is Franchised and traded, or Transition Tagged and allowed to walk, or God forbid allowed to walk outright, the perception will be that the Redskins do not want to pay up.  What message does that send to other quarterbacks around the league?  That they need to at least make the NFC Championship Game by the end of their contract to get paid, and even then the mantra may be that McCloughan will not over pay one position?  That could deter free agents from wanting to sign here, and it may make Washington less attractive for rookies in the future.  And what about the players who have come out in support of Cousins getting paid?  It may not be in Garcon and Baker's best interest to advocate for a big contract for Cousins considering their contracts will be up next year, but they did it anyways.  These guys are leaders on the team who expressed their loyalty to Cousins, and if McCloughan's ideal is to foster a unified locker room with a sense of continuity within the roster he would do well to listen to his players and pay the guy they have pegged as their leader.  

For McCloughan, this could all be formality.  He should already have a decision in his mind because he knows that he has no bargaining position in this matter.  Cousins and his camp hold all the cards, and they probably will not budge from a highly guaranteed 4-5 year contract because they know he can get that elsewhere.  So for McCloughan it is simple.  Remove the tags from your mind and buy on Kirk Cousins.