South Dakota St.: One of the sleeper picks being thrown around because their nickname is the Jackrabbits and no one knows a damn thing about South Dakota except for Mount Rushmore. NCAA tournament prognosticators are geeked up because they have that Northern Iowa vibe about them, and the Terps would do well to be cautious of this exotic team from the middle of nowhere.
The Bad News: Stouth Dakota St. likes to play at a slow and deliberate pace, and they like to play to the end of the shot clock. They thrive on being efficient and tactical in their offensive sets, and the scouting reports say that they are very disciplined in their execution. This is evident by their leading scorer (Mike Daum) coming off the bench, averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds in only 20 minutes per game. They also run a lot of dribble drive kickout and pick and roll plays that try to free up shooters and give high percentage looks. Two of their starters (George Marshall and Reed Tellinghuisen) are avid three point shooters who may look to have a field day if Maryland is their usual undisciplined selves in switching on defense. Look for the Jackrabbits to slow the game down against the Terps, who could have a tough time on defense if South Dakota can shoot at a high percentage and limit the Terps' possessions by holding the ball. The Jackrabbits' weaknesses, though, play right into Maryland's hands and they Terps may not have to adjust much if they get in rhythm.
The Good News: South Dakota St. is horribly undersized, with Daum being the only player over 6'6"who averages more than 20 minutes per game. The scouting reports also note that they are not overly athletic and are susceptible to dribble penetration on defense, plus they rarely run any zone looks on defense. Huge plus on all ends as the Terps are bigger, more athletic, and suck against any zone defense. Turgeon should be dialing up his usual "Melo take the ball to the hoop" play and allowing Diamond Stone and Robert Carter to have a field day in the low block on an undersized team. The Terps should attack the basket with impunity, and only settle for threes if the opportunity arises. Jake Layman will also be a tough check for the Jackrabbits because of his size and range. Turgeon should get him going early to try and pull some of their bigger defenders away from the basket to increase our rebounding ability, which can be suspect at times and could prove costly against a patient Jackrabbit offense. South Dakota St. is also not particularly good in transition, so the Terps need to run when give the opportunity.
Maryland beats South Dakota St. if they just be themselves and put a premium on rebounding at both ends and not settling for long jump shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Maryland loses if they defend the perimeter loosely, have poor defensive switching on screens, and allow more than 10 second chance possessions due to offensive rebounds.
Cal: The Maryland of the West except slightly better. Cal has had it's ups and downs through the season, but they now have the eye of a couple of NCAA pundits who have the winner of this possible matchup between the Golden Bears and the Terps being a formidable opponent for Kansas. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves, though, and focus on Cal.
The Bad News: Cal runs big. Very Big. Their smallest starter is Senior Tyrone Wallace at 6'5", and he averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. The other four starters range from 6'6" to 7'1", and they either match or outpace the Terp's size at every position. This is not good for Maryland who had real trouble with teams like Purdue that have big size inside that stymied their ability to drive the lane. The Golden Bears' defense also boasts the second best 2 point FG% in the nation with teams only shooting 40.9% from inside the arc against them. Maryland is prone to self imposed scoring droughts through bad shot selection and turnovers. It won't help that Cal will aid in that process through their tough defense. Cal also has the nation's most dynamic freshman duo in Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown who average 12 and 15 points per game respectively. Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, and Jake Layman will need to prove their defensive worth if Maryland is to stand a chance against The Golden Bears. But for all Cal can give in the way of bad news, they do have shortcomings.
The Good News: Cal runs big. Very Big. Big enough to have very little consistent three point threats. Jordan Mathews is their best outside shooter who averages six three points attempts per game, and Jabari Bird shoots over 40% from three for the season, but it is not their strong suit. If Maryland can capitalize on their three point attempts, and make it a point to defend within the paint, they could force Cal out of their comfort zone. The scouting report also emphasizes the fact that Cal can be stagnant when they lack transition opportunities and must operate in half court sets. Sound familiar? When the Terps are playing solid defense they have forced long possessions, and this could be especially true from a Cal team that does not assist well on most of it's baskets. Forcing Cal to move the ball around and settle for jump shots could play in the Terps' favor if they are able to grab rebounds and win the 50-50 balls. Finally, Cal is allowing teams to go to the free throw line at a high rate. Opponents average about 21 free throw attempts against the Golden Bears, and for a team that shoots 75% from the foul line, Maryland should be looking to make contact any chance it gets.
Maryland wins if they shoot at least 20 free throws, they shoot above 30% from three, and win the 50-50 balls. Maryland loses if they do not double the ball in the low post on defense, get a bland game from Layman, Carter, or Stone (they all need to show up), and if they do not score off of turnovers.
Hawaii: Aloha Haoles. It is good to know that the Warriors will not have to travel relatively far to play in the last post season action they will see for another 2 years. Hawaii has been banned from post season play in 2016-2017 after a former assistant was found to have falsified documents for a recruit. This makes them desperate to make the most of the opportunity, and while they would be an easier matchup than Cal for the Terps, it will not be easy to beat them should the Warriors prove their worth against Cal.
The Bad News: The Rainbow Warriors rely on quick guard play to penetrate the lane off of screens and kick out to open shooters once the defense collapses. Led by Junior Aaron Valdes and Senior Roderick Bobbitt, the Warriors rely on their back court speed and quickness to drive their offensive rhythm and their defensive opportunism. Maryland, and Melo in particular, has trouble defending quick guards off of the dribble, and they also have trouble with collapsing into the key and leaving open perimeter shots due to poor defensive communication. This is all gravy to the Warriors who are not shy about jacking up threes, and if they get hot from outside Maryland could be in for a long day. Valdes and Bobbitt also lead the way for the warriors in steals, where they are 30th in the nation averaging almost 8 steals per game, and they force around 14 turnovers per game. Couple that with their best player (Stefan Jankovic) being a 6'11" stretch 4 who can shoot and score from the low block, and you get a recipe for disaster for a Terps team that has trouble leaving open jump shots off of dribble penetration, a propensity to throw long careless passes at the top of the 3-point line, and smaller athletes to check Jankovic.
The Good News: While the Warriors are not afraid to shoot threes, they are not particularly good at making them either. Hawaii is shooting a lowly 32.7% from beyond the arc, which bodes well from Maryland's shaky perimeter defensive switching. Hawaii is also lacks big scorers outside of Jankovic. Their next two big guys are Mike Thomas and Sai Tummala who both average under 10 points per game ad are only listed at 6'7". Carter, Layman, and Stone present a challenge because of their size and scoring ability. Maryland should look to bully an undersized front court to settle for lower percentage shots from the outside, while at the same time deterring layups on the inside by filling their 5 block per game quota. On the offensive end, these three create matchup problems galore for The Warriors. One would assume that Jankovic would have to check Stone or Dodd, both of whom are able to draw fouls in the low block. If Jankovic gets into foul trouble it may spell doom for the Rainbow Warriors.
Maryland wins if they get consistent production from their front court, limit turnovers from Trimble and Sulaimon, and swithc effectively on defense. Maryland loses if they lose track of their defensive switches and give up easy baskets in the key sue to dribble penetration, allow Hawaii to shoot over 30% from three, and allow Hawaii to reach their 14 turnover per game average.
Hopefully, we will get to break down three more teams next week as the Terps look to make it out of the first weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2003. Here's hoping that the Terps rekindle their first half of the season magic and make it to Louisville.
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