Maryland's Most Important Piece May Not Stay

If Melo Trimble, Diamond Stone, and Robert Carter are smart they will stay at Maryland one more year.  According to Chad Ford's rankings on ESPN.com Melo and Carter are outside of the Top 50 prospects (Melo is #51 and Carter is #59), which means that they have a good shot at not being drafted if they decide to leave Maryland.  Stone is #18 in these rankings, which means he would probably get drafted somewhere in 2016, but someone at Maryland needs to show him what Jordan Williams is doing right now and it may make him think twice.  If all of them came back, though, they would all have a chance to increase their draft status by increasing their individual and team success.  Melo would finally have some backcourt depth to give him more rest during the game with the addition of freshman PG Anthony Cowan and SG Kevin Huerter.  Carter can have more exposure by not having to share minutes with Jake Layman, and by looking at Robert Carter's freshman year picture at Georgia Tech you would have to assume that he would put in the work to improve even more for next year.  Finally, Stone would get one more year to improve his rebounding ability and prove that he is a Top 10 pick with Melo and Carter helping him out in that capacity.  Finally, if all three came back Maryland would once again be a preseason Top 5 team with experience, and the shared team success they could generate in 2016-2017 would raise all ships come next year's draft.  But for all this short term prognosticating about whether or not these three will stay, Maryland should be looking at some telling portents about another member of the Terps that point to him leaving this program in the future.

Unless the Terps make at least one Final Four appearance within the next three years, Mark Turgeon may decide not to stay in College Park past his initial contract.  It has been apparent in some of Turgeon's press conferences this season that he seems tired.  Not that pissed off tired that comes from a losing streak, which the Terps suffered late in the season, but that dejected tired that comes from something missing in his personal life. This conjecture comes from a nugget that he gave in his press conference before the Kansas game.  Around the 6:00 mark Turgeon is asked about his time at Wichita State, and he professed his love for the city of Wichita stating that his wife loves the city and it was where his kids were born.  Then there is this Washington Post article by Kent Babb from June that outlines Turgeon's internal battle between his professional success and his personal life.  The article describes how coaching four teams in 17 years has made Turgeon miss special moments in his kids' lives and it has moved him to tears at times.  Finally, remember that Turgeon had a ton of family members come out to see the Terps play at Nebraska because Lincoln is a central point for most of his family that lives in Kansas and Iowa.  All of this points to Turgeon possibly not enjoying living in this area, and not enjoying the sacrifices he makes for the Maryland program if the returns are not going to be there in the future.

Turgeon is a competitor first.  He wants to win on the court more than anything, which is why he probably will not voluntarily leave for any job other than Kansas until he wins a championship here at Maryland.  But the Kent Babb article talks about Turgeon's honesty being his best quality as a coach, recruiter, and father.  Turgeon has three years left on his contract here at Maryland, and if there is no Final Four in that time then Turgeon may have to be honest with himself about what is best for him and his family.  His statements about Wichita and his tired press conferences hint that living in this area may be taking a larger toll on him that he expected.  He sees that his family is mostly located in the Midwest where he spent most of his life, and as his kids get older he may realize that it is not worth it to put himself and his family through the grind of trying to win at Maryland.  All of this can be assuaged by a Final Four appearance before his contract is up in 2019.  If that does not come, it is possible that Turgeon's personal life wins out over his desire for professional success and he walks away from the University of Maryland.

How Elitely Sweet It Is For The Terps

Savor the moment Terps fans.  This past weekend the Terps were able to beat two formidable, yet slightly over matched, teams to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since Steve Blake was at the helm.  They also were able to make this the twelfth straight NCAA tournament where they have won at least one game, which does not seem like much until you realize that the only team that has a longer streak is North Carolina at 14.  As good as it feels to revel in nostalgia, the Terps have a daunting task ahead of them if they are going to make College Park party like it is 2001.  The Final Four is a long way away given the three teams the Terps must face to get there, so let's start by analyzing the first team standing in Maryland's path because there is a good chance the Terps will not live past them.

Kansas: A bitter sweet draw for Mark Turgeon as he will face his alma mater for the first time as the Terps' signal caller.  The Jayhawks will be the toughest opponent the Terps have faced this tournament, and maybe all season, but the Terps will be Kansas's biggest challenge so far in the tournament as well.  It could prove to be a high flying game, and the Terps need to be on to keep pace.

The Bad News: Maybe you haven't heard, but Kansas is the top ranked team in the tournament and for good reason.  The Jayhawks like to play a patented Big 12 brand of basketball that involves taking and giving up a lot of shots.  The problem for the Terps is that they make a lot of the ones that they take and they defend a lot of the ones that they give up.  Kansas's regular season FG% was fifth in the nation at 49.6%, and they only gave up 39.7% to opponents.  Couple those numbers with a high assist rate, a savvy senior leader in Perry Ellis, and an 82 point per game average and you get a recipe for disaster for the Terps.  The Terps will be forced to move on defense against a team that can draw their forwards out of the paint with Ellis's range as a shooter, and with Maryland giving up a ton of offensive rebounds against Hawaii the Jawhawks should be licking their chops at the prospect of second chance points.  Kansas's quantity approach to offensive execution could lead to a massive point differential if Maryland is soft again underneath, and if they allow Kansas's defensive style to get to them.  Kansas takes intensity to the defensive end, where they are relentless on the ball defenders and like to clog the passing lanes.  The Terps do not do well against high pressure defensive teams, and Maryland will be susceptible to quick point swings if they are their normal turnover prone selves.  But as stated above the Terps present a unique challenge to Bill Self and the Jayhawks that they have not faced yet in this tournament.

The Good News: Kansas's flaws play right into Maryland's style of play.  The Terps shot 77% from the free throw line during the regular season, and while they strayed away from getting to the line late in the season they got back there with a vengeance in the first two rounds.  Kansas is all too eager to put their opponents on the charity stripe as their opponents average 21 free throws per game.  If Maryland can fill that average it may slow the game down enough for Kansas to get out of rhythm, and if the Terps can hit on their season average it may offset Kansas's ability to stymie Maryland's field goal accuracy.  While Kansas's defense is in your face, their losses have come from teams that are able to match their energy level.  Melo can get into the lane and distribute with the best of them, and the Terps proved that they can keep pace in a track meet with their game against UNC.  Granted the Terps lost that game, but hopefully they have learned something going through the Big 10 schedule.  Finally, the Terps's size in the front court will give the Jayhawks fits.  Carter and Layman can provide their own brand of inside/outside game to counter balance Ellis, and they both should be looking to drive the lane and draw contact.  Stone needs to prove his worth on the rebounding end, and Damonte Dodd will prove to be a tough defensive mathcup for Ellis.  Kansas has yet to see a team like this in the tournament, and if the Terps can start to hit on threes it could be an interesting day in Louisville.

Maryland wins if they can shoot over 25% from three, get 20 or more free throw attempts, and limit the Jayhawks to under 55 field goal attempts.  Maryland loses if they allow Kansas to be +10 or better in the rebounding margin, they have over 13 turnovers, and they allow Kansas to shoot over 20% from three.  Here's hoping the Terps are able to do the latter and stay in Kentucky for two more days. 

Maryland's Tournament Matchups

With all the hype, prognostication, denunciation, and relative conjecture that surrounds every pick in every NCAA tournament, I thought it best to try and simplify the process and break it down for all the Terps fans out there.  Considering that the college basketball groundhogs have now come out of their holes to see their shadows and said that Maryland has a good chance of not making out of the first weekend, I have decided to profile only the teams that Maryland could play this weekend in an attempt to give higher quality analysis of how they stack up against the Terps.  Here are the three teams that Maryland will, or could possibly, play this weekend and how the Terps should approach each team if they were to play them by diagnosing their play relative to the Terps' strengths and weaknesses.

South Dakota St.: One of the sleeper picks being thrown around because their nickname is the Jackrabbits and no one knows a damn thing about South Dakota except for Mount Rushmore.  NCAA tournament prognosticators are geeked up because they have that Northern Iowa vibe about them, and the Terps would do well to be cautious of this exotic team from the middle of nowhere.

The Bad News: Stouth Dakota St. likes to play at a slow and deliberate pace, and they like to play to the end of the shot clock.  They thrive on being efficient and tactical in their offensive sets, and the scouting reports say that they are very disciplined in their execution.  This is evident by their leading scorer (Mike Daum) coming off the bench, averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds in only 20 minutes per game.  They also run a lot of dribble drive kickout and pick and roll plays that try to free up shooters and give high percentage looks.  Two of their starters (George Marshall and Reed Tellinghuisen) are avid three point shooters who may look to have a field day if Maryland is their usual undisciplined selves in switching on defense.  Look for the Jackrabbits to slow the game down against the Terps, who could have a tough time on defense if South Dakota can shoot at a high percentage and limit the Terps' possessions by holding the ball.  The Jackrabbits' weaknesses, though, play right into Maryland's hands and they Terps may not have to adjust much if they get in rhythm.

The Good News: South Dakota St. is horribly undersized, with Daum being the only player over 6'6"who averages more than 20 minutes per game.  The scouting reports also note that they are not overly athletic and are susceptible to dribble penetration on defense, plus they rarely run any zone looks on defense.  Huge plus on all ends as the Terps are bigger, more athletic, and suck against any zone defense.  Turgeon should be dialing up his usual "Melo take the ball to the hoop" play and allowing Diamond Stone and Robert Carter to have a field day in the low block on an undersized team.  The Terps should attack the basket with impunity, and only settle for threes if the opportunity arises.  Jake Layman will also be a tough check for the Jackrabbits because of his size and range.  Turgeon should get him going early to try and pull some of their bigger defenders away from the basket to increase our rebounding ability, which can be suspect at times and could prove costly against a patient Jackrabbit offense.  South Dakota St. is also not particularly good in transition, so the Terps need to run when give the opportunity.

Maryland beats South Dakota St. if they just be themselves and put a premium on rebounding at both ends and not settling for long jump shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.  Maryland loses if they defend the perimeter loosely, have poor defensive switching on screens, and allow more than 10 second chance possessions due to offensive rebounds. 

Cal: The Maryland of the West except slightly better.  Cal has had it's ups and downs through the season, but they now have the eye of a couple of NCAA pundits who have the winner of this possible matchup between the Golden Bears and the Terps being a formidable opponent for Kansas.  Let's not get too ahead of ourselves, though, and focus on Cal.

The Bad News: Cal runs big. Very Big.  Their smallest starter is Senior Tyrone Wallace at 6'5", and he averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game.  The other four starters range from 6'6" to 7'1", and they either match or outpace the Terp's size at every position.  This is not good for Maryland who had real trouble with teams like Purdue that have big size inside that stymied their ability to drive the lane.  The Golden Bears' defense also boasts the second best 2 point FG% in the nation with teams only shooting 40.9% from inside the arc against them. Maryland is prone to self imposed scoring droughts through bad shot selection and turnovers.  It won't help that Cal will aid in that process through their tough defense.  Cal also has the nation's most dynamic freshman duo in Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown who average 12 and 15 points per game respectively.  Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, and Jake Layman will need to prove their defensive worth if Maryland is to stand a chance against The Golden Bears.  But for all Cal can give in the way of bad news, they do have shortcomings.

The Good News: Cal runs big.  Very Big.  Big enough to have very little consistent three point threats.  Jordan Mathews is their best outside shooter who averages six three points attempts per game, and Jabari Bird shoots over 40% from three for the season, but it is not their strong suit.  If Maryland can capitalize on their three point attempts, and make it a point to defend within the paint, they could force Cal out of their comfort zone.  The scouting report also emphasizes the fact that Cal can be stagnant when they lack transition opportunities and must operate in half court sets.  Sound familiar?  When the Terps are playing solid defense they have forced long possessions, and this could be especially true from a Cal team that does not assist well on most of it's baskets.  Forcing Cal to move the ball around and settle for jump shots could play in the Terps' favor if they are able to grab rebounds and win the 50-50 balls.  Finally, Cal is allowing teams to go to the free throw line at a high rate.  Opponents average about 21 free throw attempts against the Golden Bears, and for a team that shoots 75% from the foul line, Maryland should be looking to make contact any chance it gets.

Maryland wins if they shoot at least 20 free throws, they shoot above 30% from three, and win the 50-50 balls.  Maryland loses if they do not double the ball in the low post on defense, get a bland game from Layman, Carter, or Stone (they all need to show up), and if they do not score off of turnovers.


Hawaii: Aloha Haoles.  It is good to know that the Warriors will not have to travel relatively far to play in the last post season action they will see for another 2 years.  Hawaii has been banned from post season play in 2016-2017 after a former assistant was found to have falsified documents for a recruit.  This makes them desperate to make the most of the opportunity, and while they would be an easier matchup than Cal for the Terps, it will not be easy to beat them should the Warriors prove their worth against Cal.

The Bad News: The Rainbow Warriors rely on quick guard play to penetrate the lane off of screens and kick out to open shooters once the defense collapses.  Led by Junior Aaron Valdes and Senior Roderick Bobbitt, the Warriors rely on their back court speed and quickness to drive their offensive rhythm and their defensive opportunism.  Maryland, and Melo in particular, has trouble defending quick guards off of the dribble, and they also have trouble with collapsing into the key and leaving open perimeter shots due to poor defensive communication.  This is all gravy to the Warriors who are not shy about jacking up threes, and if they get hot from outside Maryland could be in for a long day. Valdes and Bobbitt also lead the way for the warriors in steals, where they are 30th in the nation averaging almost 8 steals per game, and they force around 14 turnovers per game.  Couple that with their best player (Stefan Jankovic) being a 6'11" stretch 4 who can shoot and score from the low block, and you get a recipe for disaster for a Terps team that has trouble leaving open jump shots off of dribble penetration, a propensity to throw long careless passes at the top of the 3-point line, and smaller athletes to check Jankovic.

The Good News: While the Warriors are not afraid to shoot threes, they are not particularly good at making them either.  Hawaii is shooting a lowly 32.7% from beyond the arc, which bodes well from Maryland's shaky perimeter defensive switching.  Hawaii is also lacks big scorers outside of Jankovic.  Their next two big guys are Mike Thomas and Sai Tummala who both average under 10 points per game ad are only listed at 6'7".  Carter, Layman, and Stone present a challenge because of their size and scoring ability.  Maryland should look to bully an undersized front court to settle for lower percentage shots from the outside, while at the same time deterring layups on the inside by filling their 5 block per game quota.  On the offensive end, these three create matchup problems galore for The Warriors.  One would assume that Jankovic would have to check Stone or Dodd, both of whom are able to draw fouls in the low block.  If Jankovic gets into foul trouble it may spell doom for the Rainbow Warriors.

Maryland wins if they get consistent production from their front court, limit turnovers from Trimble and Sulaimon, and swithc effectively on defense.  Maryland loses if they lose track of their defensive switches and give up easy baskets in the key sue to dribble penetration, allow Hawaii to shoot over 30% from three, and allow Hawaii to reach their 14 turnover per game average.

Hopefully, we will get to break down three more teams next week as the Terps look to make it out of the first weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2003.  Here's hoping that the Terps rekindle their first half of the season magic and make it to Louisville.

Remove the Tags and Buy Kirk Cousins

The Kirk Cousins Free Agency Saga has come to a head over the past week.  There is no future scenario too far fetched to be plausible for the Redskins's upstart quarterback who finds himself atop the free agency mountain this season with a host of suitors waiting to see what the Redskins decide to do with him between now and March 1.  The public conjecture about which tag the Redskins will put on Cousins obfuscates the the ultimate decision facing Scot McCloughan as open free agency approaches.  Cousins needs a contract if he is to suit up for the Burgundy and Gold in 2016 or leave for greener pastures. No Transition Tag.  No Franchise Tag.  For Scot McCloughan it is either keep Cousins or don't keep Cousins.  The Transition Tag makes no sense and the Franchise Tag could place the Redskins in a position that would go against the public perception of what McCloughan is trying to build within the locker room.

If McCloughan has any acumen as an NFL GM he has to see that placing the Transition Tag on Kirk Cousins is worthless, reckless, and bad for negotiations.  Placing the transition tag on Cousins merely gives the Redskins the right to match any offer that is given to him by another team in free agency.  If Cousins decides to leave the Redskins get nothing in return.  This renders the Transition Tag worthless to the Redskins's negotiating position because all it would do is reaffirm a limit for Cousins that the Redskins should already have in mind.  It is reckless because, by all accounts, the Transition Tag will carry a minimum one year contract worth roughly $17 million if Cousins stays with the Redskins and cannot get a long term deal.  Some say that this will give the Redskins an idea of what Cousins's actual market value is, but the Redskins should already know what the market value is.  Cousins is the hottest free agent on the market, and McCloughan must know that the Rams, 49ers, and Browns all have over $40 million in cap space and crappy quarterback situations.  Of course these teams would like to get Cousins for less than $17 million per year, but by placing the Transition Tag on Cousins the Redskins will artificially set the market value at a price that they have publicly hinted that they may not want to exceed.  What is another $2-3 million per year to teams that are desperate for a quarterback and have a lot of cap space to burn?  Placing the Transiton Tag on Cousins would be daring teams that drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round, signed Blaine Gabbert as a back up, and gave Nick Foles the keys to the franchise to outbid you for the rights to a proven passer.  I don't think these three teams will be modest with their offers to Kirk Cousins, and if he gets the Transition Tag he is all but gone without any compensation for the Redskins. The Franchise Tag carries compensation if Cousins leaves, but it may leave the Redskins in a purgatory come September if no deal is reached.

Franchising Cousins makes sense on the surface.  It would put a steep price on Cousins that no team is dumb enough to give up, and if they are I will be the first one to say bon voyage to Cousins as he exits Redskins Park.  But let's assume that no team is willing to match the $20 million price tag and give up two first round draft picks to sign him.  Advantage Redskins.  The Franchise tag also gives the Redskins until July 15 to get a long term deal done.  Another plus in the Redskins's favor, but if no deal gets done by July 15, however, it may undo all that the Redskins built last season.  With all the talk about what Cousins's contract will be now, just imagine what the atmosphere will be like throughout next season when after every game Jay Gruden will field questions about how Kirk's performance impacts his future contract.  Kirk can say he will be about playing games if he is Franchised, but that is like dating a porn star and saying that you don't really think about sex all that much.  Everyone will perceive that it is in the back of your mind and constantly ask you about your situation.  Also, how does it look for the Redskins if they have intimated all off season that they do not want to break the bank for Cousins and turn around and pay him $20 million.  And what will happen next season when Cousins has no contract again and they also need to resign Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed?  The Redskins would not exactly be able to skimp on the contracts of Reed and Cousins at that point, especially if they have comparable seasons to 2015.  There is the possibility of Franchising Cousins and then trading him, but that move would highlight the underlying dangers of not signing Cousins to a contract.

If Cousins is Franchised and traded, or Transition Tagged and allowed to walk, or God forbid allowed to walk outright, the perception will be that the Redskins do not want to pay up.  What message does that send to other quarterbacks around the league?  That they need to at least make the NFC Championship Game by the end of their contract to get paid, and even then the mantra may be that McCloughan will not over pay one position?  That could deter free agents from wanting to sign here, and it may make Washington less attractive for rookies in the future.  And what about the players who have come out in support of Cousins getting paid?  It may not be in Garcon and Baker's best interest to advocate for a big contract for Cousins considering their contracts will be up next year, but they did it anyways.  These guys are leaders on the team who expressed their loyalty to Cousins, and if McCloughan's ideal is to foster a unified locker room with a sense of continuity within the roster he would do well to listen to his players and pay the guy they have pegged as their leader.  

For McCloughan, this could all be formality.  He should already have a decision in his mind because he knows that he has no bargaining position in this matter.  Cousins and his camp hold all the cards, and they probably will not budge from a highly guaranteed 4-5 year contract because they know he can get that elsewhere.  So for McCloughan it is simple.  Remove the tags from your mind and buy on Kirk Cousins.   

A True Game of All-Stars

post by: Mark Sweet


Let’s be honest, no one actually likes all–star games. If anyone watched the Pro Bowl this year you may have noticed the game was one step above playing two-hand touch.  If the NFL would like to make their All-Star game more popular, they may want to take notes from the league with the best All-Star game experience around.  That league would be the NHL.

The NHL spends an entire night showing off the skills of their players in six different competitions. They also understand that this is an event for the fans and let their players have fun. In 2009, Alex Ovechkin decided to put on a pair of sunglasses, a hat, and use two sticks during the breakaway challenge. It wasn’t the prettiest goal, but the fans vote on the winner and they loved his schtick. P.K. Subban followed in Ovi’s footsteps by dressing up like Jaromir Jagr and winning. Players also get to show off their raw talent. Watching Zdeno Chara fire a shot upwards of 108 mph is undeniably impressive, much more impressive than watching a third rate defensive back pull up on every tackle as the receiver fox trots for five yards to the sideline. 

The NHL is also working to make their game as good as it can be. In 2010 the NHL ditched conference teams and started a fantasy draft format (copied by the NFL a few y
ears later). This was fun for a few years but it still suffered from unenthusiastic play on the ice. They realized this and decided that the All–Star game will now be a 4 team 3v3 tournament. This is by far the best decision they could make. The 3v3 format opened the game up for big offensive plays. More than just scoring, guys were back checking, fore checking, and goalies were making saves that could be considered for save of the year. In another stroke of Canadian Capitalist Genius, the winning team was awarded one million dollars. For the first time in forever there was effort in this game. Players were skating hard to not give up an odd-man rush and what could have been a potential game winning goal. It was clear no one wanted to lose. And amidst all of this newly invigorated competitive spirit, the NHL was able to create their own version of WWE style hype and it had nothing to do with dropping the gloves.

Google “John Scott” and read about how the NHL did everything in their power to stop him from playing in the All-Star game. They stopped publicizing fan votes, asked him not to play, traded him to another team, moved him to the minor league, and did not choose him to be voted on as MVP of the game. And after all of the disrespect he received from the NHL, he scored two goals, “fought” Patrick Kane, captained the Pacific team to a victory, and won as a write in candidate for MVP. He was the Stone Cold Steve Austin to the NHL's Vince McMahon, and ultimately a breath of fresh air for what can be a very boring product.

But what makes the NHL All-Star game truly special is that there isn’t one every four years. The all-star game is ditched for the Winter Olympics. The NHL is filled with players from the USA, Canada, and Europe. I’ve never seen so many people care about hockey than I did in 2010 when USA lost to Canada in the finals. T.J. Oshie became a household name for a few days in 2012.

Hockey isn’t everyone’s favorite sport, but most people have never been to an NHL game. Everyone owes it to themselves to see just how fast the game is in person. This will give you a new found respect for what the game is and will let you appreciate just how much fun the All-Star game can be.

Redskins vs. Packers: Cousins Could Be Meeting His Destiny

Redskins fans should be excited.  They should be excited to be in the playoffs.  They should be excited that they did not have to wait another 15 years to see another home playoff game.  But what should excite them the most is that for the first time in 25 years they are being led into the playoff by a young and promising quarterback.  Kirk Cousins has established himself as one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league this season, and Redskins fans should be excited at the prospect of Cousins' career paralleling that of his counterpart on Sunday. 

The question surrounding Cousins this season, especially now when it looks like he will become a franchise quarterback after this season, is what type of quarterback he will turn out to be?  It may have sounded crazy at the beginning of the season, but Cousins could be staring his destiny in the eyes on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers into FedEx Field on Sunday.  Cousins and Rodgers' careers have had similar parallels that make one think that Cousins could have a career that mirrors that of Aaron Rodgers.  Both were backups for the beginning of their careers.  Both had skeptics and haters abound when they were named the unquestioned starter in their fourth season as a pro.  Both have a sneaky good athletic skill set.  Both made their first playoff start against a former Super Bowl Champion.  Rodgers's first playoff game came in his second season as a starter against Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals, a game he lost in overtime.  Rodgers now finds himself in the role of master as he faces a young apprentice making his first career playoff start.  Cousins led the Redskins to a better record and led them on more game winning drives than Aaron Rodgers did in his first season in Green Bay, and Cousins has the benefit of playing in front of his home crowd on Sunday that could propel Cousins' career in the same direction as Aaron Rodgers.  For Cousins to fulfill this destiny he will need help in all phases of the game, and it may come down to the playmakers on defense that determine whether or not we will hear "You Like That!" in Charlotte or Tempe next weekend.  Here are the keys to the game:

Experience vs. Hotness: The quarterback play of this game will be the main focus, and the big narrative will be the experience of Rodgers versus the hot streak of Cousins.  The Redskins should be wary of Rodgers coming out like it is 2010 and whipping the ball up and down the field because that is what he has done in the past.  While this season has not been his best, Rodgers is still averaging 11.0 yards per completion compared to a woeful 6.7 yards per attempt. That means that Rodgers may not be throwing the ball long on every play, but he is connecting on the long passes so the depleted Redskins secondary needs to keep up its magic.  Cousins, however, is boasting a highly improved 7.7 yards per attempt and riding an inconceivable hot streak into the playoffs.  The Redskins need to make sure they continue to be hot by protecting Cousins from the vaunted pass rush of the Packers, and by utilizing the short to intermediate passing game with Reed, Crowder, and Garcon to gain yards after the catch.  The value of the experience of Rodgers and the good fortune of Cousins in this game will be at the mercy of the eleven men on the other side of the ball.

Under Pressure: The defenses will determine which quarterbacking skill set will win out.  The Packers Defense is boasting an impressive 58.3% completion percentage, which is fourth best in the league, and they are top ten in the league in sacks.  The two things that Cousins has been able to do to create this hot streak is be the most accurate passer in the league this season while being the fifth least sacked quarterback.  If Green Bay can close the pocket and force Cousins into quick reads against a highly skilled secondary, it could be a lot of three and outs for Sean McVay's squad.  The Redskins defense needs to make sure that they are putting pressure on Rodgers who has been sacked 47 times this year, but who may have key pieces of his offensive line returning this weekend.  It is time for Ryan Kerrigan to shine in a big game, and for Preston Smith to show his worth to the league on a national stage.  The Redskins must also do what has been their strong suit so far this season in creating turnovers.  For as much as Rodgers has been sacked, the Packers have only turned the ball over 17 times this season.  The Redskins are no stranger to creating turnovers against stingy ball security teams (the Redskins faced 10 of the top 16 teams in giveaways this season while being top 10 in the league in takeaways), and they will need at least one turnover to win this game.  Pressure and turnovers will counterbalance Rodgers experience, but the Redskins defense needs to be wary of Rodgers's experience out pacing the deficiencies they have suffered due to injury.

It's A Game of Positioning: This game will be like a well played game of chess, and field position will count for a lot.  The one area where the Redskins have a sizeable advantage is yards per drive and yards per play.  The Redskins have averaged almost four more yards per drive than the Packers (31.5 to 27.8) and they are half a yard better in yards per play (5.6 to 5.1). This means that special teams and the running game will play a major part in the field position battle.  Tress Way needs to have a big day in pinning the Packers deep, and Dustin Hopkins will need to create touchbacks and hit clutch field goals.  The Redskins will also need to take advantage of a Packers defense that is giving up almost 120 yards per game and 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground.  Alfred Morris needs to continue to be solid and run effectively enough so that play action will slow the pass rush and maybe give us big plays through the air that can flip the field.  If Morris can average above 3.5 yards per carry with 70-80 yards rushing the Packers will be in trouble.  A significant deficit in starting field position will not kill the Redskins, but it will greatly help a Packers offense that is devoid of major playmakers. 

The Redskins seem to have a penchant for playing in highly poetic playoff games.  Remember the consequences that came out of the Redskins' last playoff matchup with Seattle three years ago. Now, they find themselves with a different quarterback in the same position:  Trying to prove that he is an elite quarterback in this league.  The difference in this game is that Cousins will need to vanquish one of the elite, even if the team around Rodgers has been marginalized by injury for most of the season.  It will be a close game, and I don't see Cousins going for monster stats like he has in the past four games.  Redskins fans should expect mediocre stats, but a legendary leadership performance from Cousins with him leading some gritty second half drives to either put the Redskins ahead or answer an offensive score by the Packers.  (Prediction:  Cousins gets at least one rushing TD).  The defense will play well enough to keep it close, and watch for the edge rushers to force a big sack/fumble out of Rodgers.  It will be close, but HTTR nation should put a hold on airline tickets for next weekend.

Redskins Win: 24-20

A Rivalry Rexamined: Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Washington Sports Fans may have neglected to notice that the best team in the NHL's Eastern Conference currently resides at the Verizon Center.  The Capitals are dominating their opponents this season with the newly acquired talent of players like TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, but the one constant on this team that continues to lead them to success is Alex Ovechkin.  While Ovechkin is not the omnipotent force he was early in his career, the Russian Machine has been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons into a sharp shooting opportunist who is scoring goals on more than just breakaways, powerful one timers, and toe drag moves.  Ovechkin has been able to evolve into a player who can score from close in or on rebounds and help out on the back check, which has put him in the top ten in plus/minus so far this season.  It is this evolution that has put the Capitals a top the Eastern Conference, and it should be reviving an old argument for Capital fans based on what is happening with Ovechkin's long time nemesis. 
In Western Pennsylvania, the Penguins and their captain are having somewhat of a different type of season.  The Penguins find themselves fifth in the Metropolitan Division and Sidney Crosby is not exactly having the best of seasons so far.  The normally surgical tactician has only 24 points (7 goals/17 assists) and is a -5, which should be bringing the argument of Crosby vs. Ovechkin back into the NHL consciousness if these season trends continue for both players. There is no question that right now Crosby's Stanley Cup Championship and two Gold Medals outpace Ovechkin's superior individual accomplishments, but Crosby's lackluster season so far begins to beg the question of longevity.  What happens if Crosby's production continues to wane and Ovechkin can continue to be a top 10 goal scorer for that same period of time? 

Ovechkin had his dip in production from 2010-2012 where people were asking if Ovechkin's time as a dominant goal scorer was over.  He responded with three straight Rocket Richard Trophies and has vaulted himself back into the NHL's elite.  The difference with Sidney Crosby is that he has already had a decline in production in his career.  From 2010-2013 Crosby only played in 99 games due to injury, and his overall stats subsequently took a hit.  It is scary to think of what Crosby's career numbers would be had he been able to play more over those three seasons, and he did come back to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) in 2013-2014, but another statistical dud from Crosby sans injury could begin to swing the argument back in Ovechkin's favor if Ovechkin is able to continue to be productive.  Fifty goal scorers are not common at Ovechkin's age, and if Ovechkin can score 50 even one more time it may add the dimension of prolonged success to this argument that could offset some of the significance of the championships that Crosby has won.
Wherever a current hypothetical scenario can take this argument, the current reality is that Crosby is on top due to the championships he has won with the Penguins and Team Canada.  But up until this year it almost seemed a forgone conclusion that Ovechkin would need to win a Stanley Cup before this rivalry could be revived.  Looking at the season that Crosby is having now may counter that sentiment by seeing how well each player can end their career.  If Crosby ends his career with only second/third line center production, and if Ovechkin can do what only 8 players have done in NHL history (score 50 goals after age 30) and continue to be a legit first line winger for the next three to five years, it may give Ovechkin an edge over Crosby in terms of longevity.  And if the Capitals can do what some people say they should do this year, it will vault Ovechkin over his longtime nemesis and revive a rivalry that has lain dormant for the past five years.