Redskins vs. Giants Part Deux: The World is Changing

No. The Redskins are not the powers of Isengard and Mordor combined.  But after reading this article about Tony Romo's future and watching the total implosion of the Eagles on national television, this statement from Saruman seemed appropriate for the current state of affairs in the NFC East.  The Cowboys season is all but lost, and they now need to start seriously considering a plan for their quarterback position post Tony Romo.  The Eagles' public disembowelment on Thanksgiving showed that they also have little hope for the future with their current quarterbacks, and they may not have much confidence in anything Chip Kelley does for them outside of ordering lunch.  And even that may get dicey at times.  Which brings us to Sunday's rematch of the other two teams in the division. 

The Giants lead the division, but their last two losses came on the last play of the game where they allowed the Saints and Patriots to drive down the field in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.  The Giants may be losing that moxie that saved them so many times in close situations, and Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are not getting any younger.  But the Redskins have at least some confidence in their quarterback for this season and possibly for the future. If you believe the reports that came out this week, The Redskins have enough confidence in Gruden that he will return next year.  All of this makes this game on Sunday more than just a battle for first place this year.  It could give the Redskins organization the shot of confidence they need to fill the looming vacuum that is being created by the hubris, incompetence, and aging of the other teams in the NFC East.  If the Redskins would like to change their fortunes this weekend here is what they need to do.

If you can't get up for a game like this.......: All poetic gravitas aside, the Redskins are playing for a tie for first place in the NFC East.  That should be enough motivation for the Redskins to come out firing on all cylinders, but if they need more motivation they should look at the records of the remaining opponents for all the NFC East teams:

Giants remaining opponents:      34-27
Eagles remaining opponents:      32-18
Cowboys remaining opponents: 21-20 (play redskins twice)
Redskins remaining opponents: 22-31 (play cowboys twice)

The Redskins have the easiest schedule on paper for the remainder of the season, but remember that the Redskins also have three more road games to play.  A win would put them in the drivers seat, but a loss would almost force them to win out in order to try and make the playoffs. 

Leave the Run; Take the Pass: It would behoove the Redskins to focus on beating the Giants defense with the pass first. The Giants have given up the most total completions, total passing yards, and yards per game so far this season.  They are also tied with the Falcons for fewest number of sacks this season with 12.  This plays into the Redskins passing style that relies on high completion percentage (Cousins is third in the league) and not taking sacks because of getting the ball out quickly.  Look for a lot of Jordan Reed to exploit the middle of the field, and quick hitters to Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to alleviate pressure.  Also, look for Crowder to get some looks with wide receiver screens to make the Giants spread out.  If the Redskins can get the passing game going it may open up the running lanes enough to have some success.  This is all predicated on the Redskins doing one thing.

Clock Control: The Redskins need to control the clock.  The Giants' offensive strength is efficiency.  The Giants score on 42.7% of their drives which is good for third in the league behind New England and Arizona, and only 0.7% ahead of Carolina who showed what can happen to the Redskins if they allow a team to score on every possession.  The Giants are also only turning the ball over on 9.1% of their drives compared to the Redskins who turn the ball over on 17.6% of their drives.  What's worse is that the Giants defense forces a turnover on 19.3% of their drives which is second best in the league behind Carolina. What all of this means is that the Giants score a lot, they don't turn the ball over very much, and if you are holding onto the ball too long they are taking it back so they can score again.  The Redskins need to be able to keep pace with the Giants by matching their efficiency through clock control and limiting turnovers.  Short passes will be the name of the game on Sunday, and taking advantage of favorable running situations in order to keep the ball away from the Giants' offense.

A Test of Character:  Finally, forgetting all the stats, this game will be about whether or not this team has really had a character change.  The talk this week has been about how good the Redskins have been at home this season and how well they have bounced back from losses, but certain individuals must answer the call to prove these notions are not just talking points for TV analysts.  Kirk Cousins needs to prove that he can win a game with legitimate playoff implications when all eyes are on him.  The defense needs to prove that it can come up with big stops against a team that terrorized them earlier this season, and who will look to exploit their deficiencies in the run game.  Finally, the coaching staff needs to prove that they can come up with a solid game plan in a meaningful game.  Just like Cousins, this will be Jay Gruden's first game as a head coach where there are legitimate playoff implications. How this team responds to the opening call, and how they adjust to the flow of the game will show how good of a head coach Jay Gruden really is. 

I have a bad feeling about this game.  The Giants' offense has been clicking the past three weeks, while the Redskins' defense continues to fall into despair.  No Chris Culliver means that Odell Beckham should be going all Keyshawn on Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin.  But I will go with the title of this article and say the world is changing.  Cousins has a solid, but not flashy, game and the defense is able to come up with one big play that keeps us in the game.  It will be close either way, but I'll believe the Redskins can do it.

Redskins win 24-20

Keep KC in DC

One way to become popular is to leech off the popularity of others.  So I thought I would rebrand a pipe dream of a slogan into something that could actually happen.  Keep KC in DC.  The Redskins need to start talking with Kirk Cousins about a contract extension based on his performance over the last three games, his evolution as a passer and leader over the course of this season, and the fact that the future alternatives for the Redskins are ambiguous at best.  Here is a list of reasons why the Redskins need to Keep KC in DC.

Who Would We Replace Him With?
Here is the list of winners who will be free agents with Cousins this offseason. The problem for the Redskins is Cousins has played well enough to out pace all of these guys on that list. If the Redskins let Cousins test the open market he will be the best free agent out there, and you have to assume that teams like the Texans, Jets, Bills, Browns, Broncos, Eagles, and maybe the Rams will put in competitive offers for Cousins's services.  With so many teams in need of a quarterback, and Cousins being 27 and at the top of the free agent list, it is not unlikely that he decides to go where the money is good because this may be his only shot at a big payday. 

Another alternative is the draft, but that road is fraught with even more uncertainty.  The top quarterbacks in the Draft this year are Christian Hackenberg who sucks (I don't care how good he was his freshman year and the "James Franklin's offense ruined his development" argument.  If we let Cousins go for this guy I will be livid), Cardale Jones (read the passage beginning "Said one AFC GM" below the picture of Jones and read the quote from Phil Savage below the picture of Jamarcus Russell), and Connor Cook who may be better but it may also take him time to acclimate to the offense.  The other caveat to these quarterbacks is Cousins may play so well that the Redskins are out of position to draft these guys even if they wanted to.  This list of alternative quarterbacks to Cousins should have Scot McCloughan holding a reverse telethon where he has all the people in the background calling Cousins's agent nonstop.  There are no clear alternatives that are better than Cousins at the moment, and Cousins will be the most sought after free agent quarterback in the offseason.  And for good reason because he has shown improvement over this season.

Cousins's Game Has Evolved Over the Course of the Season
Cousins's stats for the first 6 games of the season (record 2-4):
66.2% completion    1420 yards (237 y/g)    6 TD     8 INT

Cousins's stats the last 3 games:
71.4% completion    858 yards (286 y/g)     8 TD      1 INT

Small sample size for the last three, but suffice to say that Cousins has improved immensely over the last three games.  We will know more when Cousins has to go into Carolina and then come back to DC to face the Giants over Thanksgiving weekend, but there has been improvement over this season to warrant keeping Cousins here. 

Cousins Is the Leader
This is more of an arbitrary qualitative measure but look at what Cousins has done this season.  He has led two dramatic game winning drives, one game tying drive with 50 seconds left, he coined one super charged catch phrase, he would have kept pace with the Patriots if not for a parade of ineptitude, and he hung 47 points on a Saints team that pumped up the defense so much that it led to this exchange at the end of the game.  Imitation is the highest form of flattery, and in this case Chris Baker's action said more than his words.  It shows that the defense is on board with Cousins.  Winning helps that notion take hold, but over the last three games you have seen a concerted effort from the defense to give Kirk every chance to move the ball because he has proven that he has the ability to win games.  Cousins also boasts the fourth highest completion percentage in the league which keep his receivers happy and the offense on the field.  And when he is out there, especially the last three games, you just get this sense that he has command over this offense.  He has cut down on the turnovers, he rarely takes sacks (only Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played 9 or more games and been sacked less than Cousins), his accuracy has gone through the roof when teams know that his game is short to intermediate, and he has developed a passing report with numerous receivers. You just get the sense that something good is going to happen on every offensive possession, and that is not something we have felt in a while.

At this moment the price tag should be about a three to four year contract worth about 5-7 million per year.  If Cousins's agent is smart he will start a bidding war with the team, using his free agent status as leverage, and the contract may get extended longer and for more money.  My guess is that if the Redskins keep winning you could see a four to five year contract worth 10 million plus.  Well worth it for a fourth round pariah who was seen as a coach's hubris pick.  Now, Kirk Cousins is poised to lead the Redskins on a Divisional Championship run that could make him the hottest free agent this summer if the Redskins do not play their cards right.  Let's do the right thing and Keep KC in DC.

Redskins vs Patriots: "You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss"

Words of wisdom from Omar Little that the Redskins would be wise to heed tomorrow as they take the field in Foxboro for the first time in eight years; and we all remember what happened that day.  Not much has changed has changed since that fateful day. The Patriots still do what they do best: win.  The Redskins still do what they do best: play as inconsistently as possible to always keep a sense of hope within the fan base that will ultimately be crushed at the end of the season.  The pundits believe in these roles so much that they write headlines like these on their websites about this game.  And why shouldn't they?  The Patriots have trailed in only three games this season for a grand total of 36:58 of game time.  That means that the Patriots have been trailing for only 8% of their 2015 season, and the Patriots' home win/loss numbers with Tom Brady starting are even more staggering.  The last time Tom Brady lost at home was December 16, 2013 against the 49ers.  In fact, since Tom Brady became the starter in 2001 he has only lost 13 games at Gillette Stadium, and he has only lost three home game since 2010.  So everyone treating this game as an automatic win for the Patriots should rest easy.  If the Redskins plan on not making this game a laugher like the last one they must be better than they have been all season, and if they want to do what only three teams have done in Foxboro in the last five years they must not miss in any facet of the game.  It is a long shot, but here is how they could possibly shock the world.

The Guessing Game:  Question 1:  Who is the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL this season?  Obviously it is Kirk Cous......wait, what?  You're not hallucinating.  Kirk Cousins has only been sacked 8 times this season which is the second least amount of sacks in the NFL behind the Jets.  The Patriots' defense has 26 sacks this season which is good for second best in the league, so the Redskins will have their hands full protecting Cousins this week.  Question 2: Which team has allowed more passing yards this season?  That's right.  The Patriots have allowed 142 more passing yards this season than the Redskins, probably because they have been bludgeoning teams so bad that they have to throw the ball.  Question 3: Who is giving up more rushing yards per game this season?  Of course it is the Redskins.  Washington is giving up the third most rushing yards per game this season, which means that we may see a more run heavy attack from New England to start this game.  With no real threat being posed by the Redskins on paper, it may not be out of the question for the Pats to come out running to see if they can control the one part of the game where the Redskins have the advantage.

Time Is  The Only Thing On The Redskins' Side:  The Redskins' average offensive drive is lasting 25 seconds longer than the Patriots.  If the Redskins expect to be anywhere close to winning they must have that type of ball control though short passing and manageable down and keeping manageable down and distance.  Look for Cousins to be true to his league lowest yards per completion (9.3) and third lowest yards per attempt (6.5) numbers by throwing short passes to control the clock.  Short passes may also lull the Patriots into a false sense of security and allow the Redskins to go over the top.  If the Redskins cannot connect on a pass play longer than 30 yards we may be in trouble. And for all the criticism about the Redskins running woes, as long as they are getting positive yardage it is a good thing.  The Redskins must be going forward at all times and keep the distance for every down in the single digits while controlling the clock.  As long as the game is close, the Redskins should feed the ball to Morris and Jones at least 20 times combined considering that the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per attempt and have faced the third lowest number of rushing attempts so far this season due to their dominance. 

Patriots Dominance:  The Patriots are scoring on 55.6% of their drives this season and only turning the ball over on 3.7% of their drives which is best in the league for both stats.  They have the second best yards per play average in the league (6.3) and the third best yards per drive (35.9).  Oh, and they are averaging a league best 35.6 points per game.  All of this means that the Redskins will be going up against the best, and they need to play a boring, methodical, and perfect game to win.

This will be a battle to see if the Redskins can execute the short game and grind the Patriots down.  New England is scoring every other time they touch the ball, so the Redskins need to control the time of possession through short throws and hard fought runs.  Expect to see a lot of Pierre Garcon as he is the best receiver the Redskins have in tough short yardage situations, and watch for Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder to get a lot of looks in the short medium range.  Defensively they need to not miss chances.  They will not stop the Patriots offense, but when they get their chance to stop them on third down, get an interception, recover a fumble, get a sack, they must execute.  No fancy stats for the defense because if we go by stats the Redskins defense has no chance.  This game will be won on the words of Omar Little, and I'm going with a blind homer pick for this game.  Cousins is able to march the offense methodically down the field and the defense comes up with one big turnover that is the difference in the game.

Redskins win 28-27

Meet The Candidates for Maryland's Head Football Coaching Position

This weekend's loss at Iowa officially allowed Maryland fans to classify this season as a dumpster fire.  It took our leading receiver three catches to amass 18 yards, our leading rusher was our quarterback, and it took another Will Likely special teams return to make the score look more respectable than it really was.  This was the latest installment of an offense that ranks 110th in the nation in average yards per game, 113th in passing yards per game, and dead last in turnover margin and interceptions thrown.  These numbers should have the Kevins (Anderson and Plank) looking to hire a coach who is going to give a shot in the arm to the side of the ball that puts the proverbial butts in the seats.  So here is a review of the candidates SweetDCSports believes the Kevins are looking at to skipper The USS Turtle Tears out of troubled waters in 2016 starting with the current steward of the throne.

Mike Locksley

I'm sure the Kevins are having a long and hard discussion about whether or not to hire Locksley as their head coach.  And why not?  He has brought top level talent from the DC area to every school he has coached, and he revitalized the perception that Maryland cannot recruit when he was rehired in 2011 and promptly landed top level recruits like Stefon Diggs.  The problem has been in talent development, especially at the quarterback position.  Under Locksley's tenure the Terps ran Danny O'Brien out of town a year after he was named the ACC Freshman of the Year.  C.J. Brown was a dual threat helped out by a slew of medical redshirts and Stefon Diggs not leaving after his sophomore season.  And now it falls to the Locksley recruited Perry Hills who has thrown 10 interceptions in 5 games this season.  There has not been a lot of growth from the quarterbacks position under a guy whose title is offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach, and Shane Cockerille's move from QB to fullback should give the Kevins pause about what they can expect from Dwayne Haskins if Locksley is allowed to continue as head coach.  In my mind they should be looking elsewhere, but Locksley will be a strong candidate until the end due to his ability to recruit and his ties to the DC area.

With that out of the way, here are the head coaches who the Kevins should be desperately seeking:

Matt Rhule (Temple)

I must admit that I was unaware of Temple's rapid rise to college football relevance until this past weekend.  Now, everyone knows Matt Rhule's name as he is on the short list for every coaching job East of the Mississippi regardless of whether that position is vacant or not.  The Kevins should be taking a long hard look at this guy because he possesses a lot of qualities they desire.  First, he is a reported hands on recruiter with a pension for details.  He was able to land the second best recruiting class in the AAC after winning only two games his first season.  Second, he is a noted players coach who has had experience at all levels of football.  He is active in social media, and he was the offensive line coach for the Giants before taking the Temple position in 2012.  Finally, he is a young coach who played in the Big 10, he has Under Armour ties (Temple is sponsored by Under Armour), he has placed Temple in the Top 25, and he came within two minutes of defeating a Top 10 Notre Dame team.  The negatives are there.  Temple's offensive yardage per game is worse than Maryland's.  Temple plays in a weaker conference, which could account for their defense being ranked 28th in the country.  And we recently saw the Temple Project Part 1 starring Al Golden come to an inglorious end in Miami.  Despite these shortcomings, Rhule should be getting daily calls from the Kevins about coming to College Park.

Matt Campbell (Toledo)

The second youngest FBS coach at 35 years old, Campbell has done an amazing job at Toledo in only a short period of time.  He is 33-13 in his three plus seasons at Toledo, and the Rockets are 7-0 this season on the backs of a relatively balanced team that is ranked 24th in total offense and 51st in total defense.  Some may point to Campbell's emphasis on discipline and manners as being a younger version of Randy Edsall, but the Kevins should at least throw a line in Campbell's direction.  Campbell is described as a relentless competitor who is straightforward in his personal approach with players and who knows the type of players he wants to recruit for each position.  Campbell developed his notion of an offensive system after studying Urban Meyer's spread offense as a graduate assistant at Bowling Green.  Maybe his old offensive coordinator at Bowling Green, Greg Studrawa, could convince him to finally leave the state of Ohio seeing is how Studrawa is the current offensive line coach at Maryland.  The Kevins should use that leverage, along with Toledo being outfitted by Under Armour, to gauge Campbell's interest in coming further east but buyer beware.  Campbell has vehemently expressed his desire to build the Toledo program further, and he has no coaching experience outside of the state of Ohio or outside of any conference bigger than the MAC.  He was turned off by his experience as a freshman at Pitt, so while his success in the MAC is tantalizing he may not be ready for the rigors of what the Kevins are expecting the new head coach to bring to Maryland.  Campbell is still an intriguing candidate and he should be worth a look.

Justin Fuente (Memphis)
Fuente may be more of a longshot for Maryland, but he definitely has the highest pedigree of the three.  The mastermind behind TCU's air raid offense and Andy Dalton's rise to stardom, he parlayed his success as TCU's offensive coordinator into a head coaching position for a 2-10 Memphis team.  Fuente has since turned Memphis into an 8-0 team that finds itself ranked 13th in the College Football Playoff Ranking and 6th in total offense in the country.  What is more impressive than these results is the way Fuente was able to accomplish these feats at a school that was a college football backwater located at the confluence of Big 10, Big 12, and SEC recruiting grounds.  Fuente weathered the storm in his first two seasons as the Tigers won only seven games while he tried to bring in the right personnel to run his air raid scheme.  His patience and determination paid off with a 10-3 record last season and a flawless campaign so far this season.  Some will point to the luck involved in Memphis's success this season as their star QB was mostly overlooked coming out of high school.  Others will say that Fuente's recruitment of Paxton Lynch is a sign of his ability to know what type of players will fit his offense.  Whatever it is, the Kevins will need to drive a hard bargain as South Carolina and Miami sound like more suitable places for a coach from Big 12 country that has not had any football experience north of Kentucky.  Fuente has also has seen what happens to coaches who like to run spread offenses in the Big 10 (see Rich Rodriguez at Michigan).  But Maryland's new Cole Field House renovations coupled with some financial convincing and Maryland being below the Mason-Dixon Line may get Fuente to give Maryland a second look. 

Honorable mention goes to Bowling Green's Dino Babers.  Maryland got a first hand look at what Babers can do as they were on the business end of Bowling Green's spread offense this season.  Babers is on the older side at 54, but if all else fails it may not be a huge loss to take a flyer on an older guy who is a prodigy of Art Briles.  And yes, if Chip Kelly can be got we should not blink at the opportunity to get him.  But looking at the three candidates listed above, I think Rhule would be the number one option even over Chip Kelly.  A seasoned veteran from Pennsylvania who is a players coach and has a passion to win and recruit.  My vote is for Rhule if we can get him.

Redskins vs. Buccanneers: "You Like That?"

The three words that will be heard around the DC area, and define the current state of the Redskins season, for at least the next 36-48 hours.  Kirk Cousins's showing of emotion after the biggest comeback win in Redskins history was as appropriate as it was a little corny with his voice cracking the second time he said it.  But his charged up rhetoric put an exclamation point on the statement that the Redskins and Cousins made on the field against the Buccaneers on Sunday.  This team has what it takes.  This team has the ability to win the game by imposing their will rather than relying on timely turnovers by the other team.  This team has the guts to go for a 4th and 2 at midfield with two minutes left before halftime, and call an onside kick in the middle of the third quarter knowing that if they don't get it they give the ball and momentum back to the other team.  They have the fortitude to not give up at the five yard line after a 49 yard run that put the Bucs in almost guaranteed touchdown territory.  Finally, and most importantly, this team has a quarterback that has developed the mental fortitude to win in high pressure situations. 

This mental fortitude was the most important thing that he needed to work on this offseason, and while the Jets game showed that Cousins can still throw a good old fashioned Kirk Cousins interception party, he has also shown the ability to perform in high pressure situations.  He has won two games this season in the last minute, where he led long 2 minute drives that ended with him throwing the winning touchdown.  He got the Atlanta game to overtime with only 50 seconds left in regulation, and he had the offense humming in OT until he threw the game ending pick six.  Cousins has proven that he can be a competent NFL quarterback over the first seven games of this season, and that he is making strides in improving his play.  The real test will be coming up after the bye week when he must continue his improvement at New England, home against the Saints, and at Carolina.  What he has done now with this win, however, is given the Redskins a new chance at the season.

Hopefully the Redskins will be going into Foxboro two weeks from now with a healthy Desean Jackson and a game plan that reflects the threat that he poses.  That would not mean much if the Redskins were blown out by the Buccaneers, but this comeback win should galvanize the Redskins resolve.  The NFC East is wide open, and this win keeps them in the mix for a possible playoff spot given one of their biggest offensive weapons has been absent all season.  Redskins fans must also accept the fact, however, that there is a good chance that 5 weeks from now we could be 3-8 and going over all the talking points that were hashed out this past week after the loss to the Jets.  Then again, there is a chance we could be 7-4.  Whatever the outcome over the next month may be, what Cousins and the Redskins have done this week is show that they are ready for whatever comes at them, and they have turned a tepid plea for evaluation into an irreverent rhetorical question.  "You Like That?".

Redskins vs. Jets: Cousins Needs to Prove His Worth

Kirk Cousins needs to prove to the Redskins that he can win big games against winning teams on the road.  The past two weeks he has shown that he can engineer late drive that put the Redskins in a position to win the game, but he also showed his penchant for throwing soul crushing interceptions at critical points in the game that left HTTR nation staring at their TV's for the next hour in catatonic disbelief.  Kirk Cousins also needs to prove to the Jets that maybe he was worth more than they thought when they inquired about a trade earlier this season after they realized that their quarterback was just as bad at debt collection as he was throwing fade routes.  It will not be an easy task this week as Cousins goes up against a stingy Jets defense that is only giving up 280 yards and a league best 13.8 points per game so far this season.  The Jets offense, however, is not over imposing as a team and they benefit from a defense that puts them in advantageous positions.  If the Redskins can execute on both sides of the ball they stand a very good chance at putting themselves in coin flip game that may come down to another Kirk Cousins last minute drive.  It all starts with field position.

You know where it ends.  It depends on where you start:  When looking at the offensive stats between these two teams, it seems as if they would be evenly matched.  They have nearly identical yards per passing attempt (6.6 WAS/6.4 NY), yards per completion (9.7/10.5), net yards per passing attempt (6.2 for both), yards per rushing attempt (4.1/4.2), and they are both scoring on 33.3% of their drives.  So what is the explanation for the Jets averaging almost 5 points more per game than the Redskins when the Jets average less time of possession per drive, less plays per drive, and less yards per drive than the Redskins?  The answer is field position.  The Jets average starting field position is their own 33.2 yard line, which is second best in the league and almost ten yards more than the Redskins.  This number is bolstered by the Jets' defense forcing 13 turnovers so far this season, so if the Redskins plan on staying close they need to win the field position battle by limiting turnovers and getting a big day from Tress Way and the punt coverage team.  They need to give Ryan Fitzpatrick a long field to work with in order to test his ability to sustain longer drives, and put him in passing situations to allow the Redskins to do something that not many of the Jets' previous opponents have done.

Get to Ryan Fitzpatrick:  It may not have occurred to anyone, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has only been sacked twice this season. Twice in four games.  It helps that the Jets have faced the two teams with the lowest sack totals in the league (Indianapolis 6, Miami 1), but the Browns and Eagles have similar sack totals to the Redskins.  If the Redskins plan on controlling field position and limiting the offensive success of the Jets they need to put Ryan Fitzpatrick under assault.  The Redskins front seven needs to get pressure on Fitzpatrick so as to not allow Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to have big days against a depleted Redskins secondary.  If the Redskins defense cannot get two or more sacks and hurry Fitzpatrick's throws we may see some long sustained drives from the Jets because...

Chis Ivory Has Been Reborn: Ivory was an afterthought in New Orleans, but his move to the north has been nothing short of miraculous.  Ivory is averaging 104 yards per game, which is tied for best in the league, and he is averaging 5.0 yards per attempt.  This is not good for a Redskins defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per attempt this season, and who could be spread out if Fitzpatrick is allowed to stretch the field with Brandon Marshall.  Containing Chris Ivory will be contingent upon whether or not the Redskins can hurry Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it will be easier on Fitzpatrick if Ivory can go for his average yards per attempt every time he touches the ball.  The Giants showed that the Redskins can be vulnerable to a committed running game, and the Redskins need to be ready for a heavy does of Chris Ivory.  The Redskins need to respond in kind, but with a different focus with their running backs.

Trust the Short Game:  The Redskins offense needs to trust in their ability to get small chunks of yards that put them in manageable down and distances.  The Jets' defense is only giving up 4.5 yards per pass, 3.8 yards per run, a 16.3% scoring average, and a 24.5% turnover average.  This means they are not giving up big plays, not allowing the other team to score often, and turning them over at a high clip.  The Redskins need to understand that they will be in a lot of third downs, so they need to rely on short runs and screens to make those third downs manageable.  Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder need to have big days in the short passing game, and with Matt Jones's health being a questions mark they need Alfred Morris to fall forward and get positive yardage.  Finally, they need to hit on their home run balls.  Rashad Ross showed that he can be a valuable deep threat last week drawing a crucial pas interference call.  The Redskins will need to take their shots, and Ross should see at least two deep balls thrown his way to keep the short game viable.

At best this will be a coin flip game if the Redskins are able to execute.  If they turn the ball over, muff punts, and allow the Jets to have favorable field position it could turn into another day like the last one they had in the Meadowlands.  But if Cousins can show that he may be worth at least what the Redskins gave up for him, he could once again prove that the Redskins may have made the right choice in turning down the Jets' offer.  I still think that the Jets' defense will prove too much for Sean McVay's scheme, Ivory will give the Redskins front seven fits, and the Redskins will commit an untimely turnover that swings the balance of the game late.

24-13 Redskins Lose

Redskins vs. Falcons: Are the Redskins or Falcons For Real?

Will the Redskins be able to methodically move the ball in order to score and keep Matt Ryan off the field?  Or, will Matt Ryan be able to rain down 20-30 yard passes against a depleted Redskins secondary in order to win the game?  Does any of this even matter?  It does matter when you consider that two of the three touchdowns the Redskins gave up last week were on passes of 30 yards or more, and now they have to play against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  It matters when the Falcons give up less running yards per offensive possession than the Redskins' previous foe; The Philadelphia Eagles.  It all matters when the game on paper looks like an air raid conducted with impunity by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones that will crush any hopes of this season being anything but salvageable for the Redskins.  It is easy to point to a depleted Redskins secondary to state the keys of the game, but that does not mean that it is the wrong answer.  The Redskins will need to find an answer for the likes of Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and their old pal Leonard Hankerson in order to limit the amount of big plays the Falcons are able to convert against their defense.  The Falcons will need to get the Redskins off of the field on third down, and clog up the short to mid range passing lanes in order to fluster Kirk Cousins into one of his patented 3rd quarter, back breaking, interceptions.  The subtleties of this game are far deeper, and the Redskins would be wise to learn from these outlines in order to be successful on Sunday.   

Scoring when we get inside the Atlanta 30 yard line: Any scoring will do.  The Redskins are only scoring on 32% of their drives as opposed to Falcons scoring on 45% of their drives.  If the Redskins expect to win against a team that outscores them 34-19 on average this season they need to get points whenever they cross the Falcons 30 yard line.  Touchdowns are preferable, but field goals will serve their purpose.  The Redskins just need to show that they can score on every possession and put the pressure on the Falcons to do the same.  Take a lesson from the Giants game on Thursday Night, and see how field goals can be integral to success.  Dustin Hopkins needs be perfect in order for the Redskins to win the game.  One missed kick (field goal or extra point) will cost them the game against a team that has the ability to score quickly against a depleted secondary.  This scoring will do no good, however, if the Redskins cannot continue their time of possession dominance and limit the Falcons chances at scoring.

Get Yards the Hard Way: Running the ball will be the Redskins best friend.  Atlanta's defense has faced the second least amount of rushing attempts in the league this season (77), and they are giving up the eighth most yards per rushing attempt (4.4).  The Redskins are averaging the third best yards per attempt average in the league (4.4), and they are averaging the most rushing yards per game (139.5).  They also showed versatility within the running game last week with the emergence of Chris Thompson.  Thompson gives their running game and added dynamic of speed and catching ability out of the backfield, and if the Falcons are unable to shut down one of these running backs it could be a field day for the Redskins running attack.  They should run the ball at least 30 times in order to control the clock, put themselves in manageable down and distances, and to test a Falcons defense that has not been run on heavily over the first three games.  As much as I love Alfred Morris because he is on my fantasy team, I see Matt Jones getting a bigger workload this week in order to show the Falcons some breakaway speed between the tackles. Chris Thompson should also see between 5-10 carries in order to set up screen passes on third down.  Expect to see one Thompson screen pass go for over 20 yards in this game.  Running the ball will limit the Falcons's possessions, but the Redskins cannot hold onto the ball forever.  The defense will need to step up in big situations.

The Most Dangerous Receivers Do Not Wear #11: Julio Jones will get his. There should be no analysis on what to do about him because you know he is going to get the yardage if a pass can be thrown to him.  The Redskins need to make sure that they can put as many people on Jones as possible by stopping Leonard Hankerson and Devonta Freeman in the passing game.  Hankerson has benefitted from Jones taking the pressure off of him and allowing him to go for 14.2 yards per reception so far this season, which is a better average than Julio Jones. Freeman has just as many receptions as Hankerson, and the Falcons will look to keep the linebackers and safeties looking for the short pass in order to open up deep routes for Julio Jones. The Redskins need to find a way to marginalize these two receiving threats in order to put more of their energy in stopping Julio Jones.  If Hankerson and Freeman go for more than 120 combined receiving yards it shows that the Redskins are unable to stop the Falcons secondary passing attack, and that they will be relying on Kirk Cousins to once again engineer a magnificent performance. 

Need Another Big Day From Cousins and Linebackers: Who has given up the fourth most passing yards in the league so far this year?  That's right. It's the Falcons.  And those yards have come in 175 attempts with a 65% completion rate and averaging 305 yards per game.  Those numbers are not outrageous, but it shows that this team can be thrown on.  Look for Cousins to have another efficient game if we want to win, and look for an increased role for Rashad Ross to burn downfield in order to open up the intermediate passing lanes.  The linebackers also need a big day getting to Matt Ryan and containing Devonta Freeman.  Murphy and Kerrigan need to flash some lateral speed in the flat, while splicing in some rushes that force Matt Ryan to move his feet in the pocket.  Preston Smith should see an increased workload in order to provide more speed on the outside, and don't be surprised if you hear Jackson Jeffcoat's name called more than once in celebration of a big play.  Anything less than 300 yards passing and no sacks spells doom for the Redskins.

The recipe for success against the Falcons is that they need to be challenged on the ground so we can hold the ball, and then hope that Julio Jones shows mercy.  Cousins also needs to show that he can string together two good performances in a row and win on the road.  The Redskins have not met a matchup as hard as this one, but neither have the Falcons.  Ultimately, I see The Falcons home field advantage being too strong for the Redskins to overcome this week in Atlanta.

24-21 Redskins lose.