Maryland's Tournament Matchups

With all the hype, prognostication, denunciation, and relative conjecture that surrounds every pick in every NCAA tournament, I thought it best to try and simplify the process and break it down for all the Terps fans out there.  Considering that the college basketball groundhogs have now come out of their holes to see their shadows and said that Maryland has a good chance of not making out of the first weekend, I have decided to profile only the teams that Maryland could play this weekend in an attempt to give higher quality analysis of how they stack up against the Terps.  Here are the three teams that Maryland will, or could possibly, play this weekend and how the Terps should approach each team if they were to play them by diagnosing their play relative to the Terps' strengths and weaknesses.

South Dakota St.: One of the sleeper picks being thrown around because their nickname is the Jackrabbits and no one knows a damn thing about South Dakota except for Mount Rushmore.  NCAA tournament prognosticators are geeked up because they have that Northern Iowa vibe about them, and the Terps would do well to be cautious of this exotic team from the middle of nowhere.

The Bad News: Stouth Dakota St. likes to play at a slow and deliberate pace, and they like to play to the end of the shot clock.  They thrive on being efficient and tactical in their offensive sets, and the scouting reports say that they are very disciplined in their execution.  This is evident by their leading scorer (Mike Daum) coming off the bench, averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds in only 20 minutes per game.  They also run a lot of dribble drive kickout and pick and roll plays that try to free up shooters and give high percentage looks.  Two of their starters (George Marshall and Reed Tellinghuisen) are avid three point shooters who may look to have a field day if Maryland is their usual undisciplined selves in switching on defense.  Look for the Jackrabbits to slow the game down against the Terps, who could have a tough time on defense if South Dakota can shoot at a high percentage and limit the Terps' possessions by holding the ball.  The Jackrabbits' weaknesses, though, play right into Maryland's hands and they Terps may not have to adjust much if they get in rhythm.

The Good News: South Dakota St. is horribly undersized, with Daum being the only player over 6'6"who averages more than 20 minutes per game.  The scouting reports also note that they are not overly athletic and are susceptible to dribble penetration on defense, plus they rarely run any zone looks on defense.  Huge plus on all ends as the Terps are bigger, more athletic, and suck against any zone defense.  Turgeon should be dialing up his usual "Melo take the ball to the hoop" play and allowing Diamond Stone and Robert Carter to have a field day in the low block on an undersized team.  The Terps should attack the basket with impunity, and only settle for threes if the opportunity arises.  Jake Layman will also be a tough check for the Jackrabbits because of his size and range.  Turgeon should get him going early to try and pull some of their bigger defenders away from the basket to increase our rebounding ability, which can be suspect at times and could prove costly against a patient Jackrabbit offense.  South Dakota St. is also not particularly good in transition, so the Terps need to run when give the opportunity.

Maryland beats South Dakota St. if they just be themselves and put a premium on rebounding at both ends and not settling for long jump shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.  Maryland loses if they defend the perimeter loosely, have poor defensive switching on screens, and allow more than 10 second chance possessions due to offensive rebounds. 

Cal: The Maryland of the West except slightly better.  Cal has had it's ups and downs through the season, but they now have the eye of a couple of NCAA pundits who have the winner of this possible matchup between the Golden Bears and the Terps being a formidable opponent for Kansas.  Let's not get too ahead of ourselves, though, and focus on Cal.

The Bad News: Cal runs big. Very Big.  Their smallest starter is Senior Tyrone Wallace at 6'5", and he averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game.  The other four starters range from 6'6" to 7'1", and they either match or outpace the Terp's size at every position.  This is not good for Maryland who had real trouble with teams like Purdue that have big size inside that stymied their ability to drive the lane.  The Golden Bears' defense also boasts the second best 2 point FG% in the nation with teams only shooting 40.9% from inside the arc against them. Maryland is prone to self imposed scoring droughts through bad shot selection and turnovers.  It won't help that Cal will aid in that process through their tough defense.  Cal also has the nation's most dynamic freshman duo in Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown who average 12 and 15 points per game respectively.  Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, and Jake Layman will need to prove their defensive worth if Maryland is to stand a chance against The Golden Bears.  But for all Cal can give in the way of bad news, they do have shortcomings.

The Good News: Cal runs big.  Very Big.  Big enough to have very little consistent three point threats.  Jordan Mathews is their best outside shooter who averages six three points attempts per game, and Jabari Bird shoots over 40% from three for the season, but it is not their strong suit.  If Maryland can capitalize on their three point attempts, and make it a point to defend within the paint, they could force Cal out of their comfort zone.  The scouting report also emphasizes the fact that Cal can be stagnant when they lack transition opportunities and must operate in half court sets.  Sound familiar?  When the Terps are playing solid defense they have forced long possessions, and this could be especially true from a Cal team that does not assist well on most of it's baskets.  Forcing Cal to move the ball around and settle for jump shots could play in the Terps' favor if they are able to grab rebounds and win the 50-50 balls.  Finally, Cal is allowing teams to go to the free throw line at a high rate.  Opponents average about 21 free throw attempts against the Golden Bears, and for a team that shoots 75% from the foul line, Maryland should be looking to make contact any chance it gets.

Maryland wins if they shoot at least 20 free throws, they shoot above 30% from three, and win the 50-50 balls.  Maryland loses if they do not double the ball in the low post on defense, get a bland game from Layman, Carter, or Stone (they all need to show up), and if they do not score off of turnovers.


Hawaii: Aloha Haoles.  It is good to know that the Warriors will not have to travel relatively far to play in the last post season action they will see for another 2 years.  Hawaii has been banned from post season play in 2016-2017 after a former assistant was found to have falsified documents for a recruit.  This makes them desperate to make the most of the opportunity, and while they would be an easier matchup than Cal for the Terps, it will not be easy to beat them should the Warriors prove their worth against Cal.

The Bad News: The Rainbow Warriors rely on quick guard play to penetrate the lane off of screens and kick out to open shooters once the defense collapses.  Led by Junior Aaron Valdes and Senior Roderick Bobbitt, the Warriors rely on their back court speed and quickness to drive their offensive rhythm and their defensive opportunism.  Maryland, and Melo in particular, has trouble defending quick guards off of the dribble, and they also have trouble with collapsing into the key and leaving open perimeter shots due to poor defensive communication.  This is all gravy to the Warriors who are not shy about jacking up threes, and if they get hot from outside Maryland could be in for a long day. Valdes and Bobbitt also lead the way for the warriors in steals, where they are 30th in the nation averaging almost 8 steals per game, and they force around 14 turnovers per game.  Couple that with their best player (Stefan Jankovic) being a 6'11" stretch 4 who can shoot and score from the low block, and you get a recipe for disaster for a Terps team that has trouble leaving open jump shots off of dribble penetration, a propensity to throw long careless passes at the top of the 3-point line, and smaller athletes to check Jankovic.

The Good News: While the Warriors are not afraid to shoot threes, they are not particularly good at making them either.  Hawaii is shooting a lowly 32.7% from beyond the arc, which bodes well from Maryland's shaky perimeter defensive switching.  Hawaii is also lacks big scorers outside of Jankovic.  Their next two big guys are Mike Thomas and Sai Tummala who both average under 10 points per game ad are only listed at 6'7".  Carter, Layman, and Stone present a challenge because of their size and scoring ability.  Maryland should look to bully an undersized front court to settle for lower percentage shots from the outside, while at the same time deterring layups on the inside by filling their 5 block per game quota.  On the offensive end, these three create matchup problems galore for The Warriors.  One would assume that Jankovic would have to check Stone or Dodd, both of whom are able to draw fouls in the low block.  If Jankovic gets into foul trouble it may spell doom for the Rainbow Warriors.

Maryland wins if they get consistent production from their front court, limit turnovers from Trimble and Sulaimon, and swithc effectively on defense.  Maryland loses if they lose track of their defensive switches and give up easy baskets in the key sue to dribble penetration, allow Hawaii to shoot over 30% from three, and allow Hawaii to reach their 14 turnover per game average.

Hopefully, we will get to break down three more teams next week as the Terps look to make it out of the first weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2003.  Here's hoping that the Terps rekindle their first half of the season magic and make it to Louisville.

Remove the Tags and Buy Kirk Cousins

The Kirk Cousins Free Agency Saga has come to a head over the past week.  There is no future scenario too far fetched to be plausible for the Redskins's upstart quarterback who finds himself atop the free agency mountain this season with a host of suitors waiting to see what the Redskins decide to do with him between now and March 1.  The public conjecture about which tag the Redskins will put on Cousins obfuscates the the ultimate decision facing Scot McCloughan as open free agency approaches.  Cousins needs a contract if he is to suit up for the Burgundy and Gold in 2016 or leave for greener pastures. No Transition Tag.  No Franchise Tag.  For Scot McCloughan it is either keep Cousins or don't keep Cousins.  The Transition Tag makes no sense and the Franchise Tag could place the Redskins in a position that would go against the public perception of what McCloughan is trying to build within the locker room.

If McCloughan has any acumen as an NFL GM he has to see that placing the Transition Tag on Kirk Cousins is worthless, reckless, and bad for negotiations.  Placing the transition tag on Cousins merely gives the Redskins the right to match any offer that is given to him by another team in free agency.  If Cousins decides to leave the Redskins get nothing in return.  This renders the Transition Tag worthless to the Redskins's negotiating position because all it would do is reaffirm a limit for Cousins that the Redskins should already have in mind.  It is reckless because, by all accounts, the Transition Tag will carry a minimum one year contract worth roughly $17 million if Cousins stays with the Redskins and cannot get a long term deal.  Some say that this will give the Redskins an idea of what Cousins's actual market value is, but the Redskins should already know what the market value is.  Cousins is the hottest free agent on the market, and McCloughan must know that the Rams, 49ers, and Browns all have over $40 million in cap space and crappy quarterback situations.  Of course these teams would like to get Cousins for less than $17 million per year, but by placing the Transition Tag on Cousins the Redskins will artificially set the market value at a price that they have publicly hinted that they may not want to exceed.  What is another $2-3 million per year to teams that are desperate for a quarterback and have a lot of cap space to burn?  Placing the Transiton Tag on Cousins would be daring teams that drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round, signed Blaine Gabbert as a back up, and gave Nick Foles the keys to the franchise to outbid you for the rights to a proven passer.  I don't think these three teams will be modest with their offers to Kirk Cousins, and if he gets the Transition Tag he is all but gone without any compensation for the Redskins. The Franchise Tag carries compensation if Cousins leaves, but it may leave the Redskins in a purgatory come September if no deal is reached.

Franchising Cousins makes sense on the surface.  It would put a steep price on Cousins that no team is dumb enough to give up, and if they are I will be the first one to say bon voyage to Cousins as he exits Redskins Park.  But let's assume that no team is willing to match the $20 million price tag and give up two first round draft picks to sign him.  Advantage Redskins.  The Franchise tag also gives the Redskins until July 15 to get a long term deal done.  Another plus in the Redskins's favor, but if no deal gets done by July 15, however, it may undo all that the Redskins built last season.  With all the talk about what Cousins's contract will be now, just imagine what the atmosphere will be like throughout next season when after every game Jay Gruden will field questions about how Kirk's performance impacts his future contract.  Kirk can say he will be about playing games if he is Franchised, but that is like dating a porn star and saying that you don't really think about sex all that much.  Everyone will perceive that it is in the back of your mind and constantly ask you about your situation.  Also, how does it look for the Redskins if they have intimated all off season that they do not want to break the bank for Cousins and turn around and pay him $20 million.  And what will happen next season when Cousins has no contract again and they also need to resign Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed?  The Redskins would not exactly be able to skimp on the contracts of Reed and Cousins at that point, especially if they have comparable seasons to 2015.  There is the possibility of Franchising Cousins and then trading him, but that move would highlight the underlying dangers of not signing Cousins to a contract.

If Cousins is Franchised and traded, or Transition Tagged and allowed to walk, or God forbid allowed to walk outright, the perception will be that the Redskins do not want to pay up.  What message does that send to other quarterbacks around the league?  That they need to at least make the NFC Championship Game by the end of their contract to get paid, and even then the mantra may be that McCloughan will not over pay one position?  That could deter free agents from wanting to sign here, and it may make Washington less attractive for rookies in the future.  And what about the players who have come out in support of Cousins getting paid?  It may not be in Garcon and Baker's best interest to advocate for a big contract for Cousins considering their contracts will be up next year, but they did it anyways.  These guys are leaders on the team who expressed their loyalty to Cousins, and if McCloughan's ideal is to foster a unified locker room with a sense of continuity within the roster he would do well to listen to his players and pay the guy they have pegged as their leader.  

For McCloughan, this could all be formality.  He should already have a decision in his mind because he knows that he has no bargaining position in this matter.  Cousins and his camp hold all the cards, and they probably will not budge from a highly guaranteed 4-5 year contract because they know he can get that elsewhere.  So for McCloughan it is simple.  Remove the tags from your mind and buy on Kirk Cousins.   

A True Game of All-Stars

post by: Mark Sweet


Let’s be honest, no one actually likes all–star games. If anyone watched the Pro Bowl this year you may have noticed the game was one step above playing two-hand touch.  If the NFL would like to make their All-Star game more popular, they may want to take notes from the league with the best All-Star game experience around.  That league would be the NHL.

The NHL spends an entire night showing off the skills of their players in six different competitions. They also understand that this is an event for the fans and let their players have fun. In 2009, Alex Ovechkin decided to put on a pair of sunglasses, a hat, and use two sticks during the breakaway challenge. It wasn’t the prettiest goal, but the fans vote on the winner and they loved his schtick. P.K. Subban followed in Ovi’s footsteps by dressing up like Jaromir Jagr and winning. Players also get to show off their raw talent. Watching Zdeno Chara fire a shot upwards of 108 mph is undeniably impressive, much more impressive than watching a third rate defensive back pull up on every tackle as the receiver fox trots for five yards to the sideline. 

The NHL is also working to make their game as good as it can be. In 2010 the NHL ditched conference teams and started a fantasy draft format (copied by the NFL a few y
ears later). This was fun for a few years but it still suffered from unenthusiastic play on the ice. They realized this and decided that the All–Star game will now be a 4 team 3v3 tournament. This is by far the best decision they could make. The 3v3 format opened the game up for big offensive plays. More than just scoring, guys were back checking, fore checking, and goalies were making saves that could be considered for save of the year. In another stroke of Canadian Capitalist Genius, the winning team was awarded one million dollars. For the first time in forever there was effort in this game. Players were skating hard to not give up an odd-man rush and what could have been a potential game winning goal. It was clear no one wanted to lose. And amidst all of this newly invigorated competitive spirit, the NHL was able to create their own version of WWE style hype and it had nothing to do with dropping the gloves.

Google “John Scott” and read about how the NHL did everything in their power to stop him from playing in the All-Star game. They stopped publicizing fan votes, asked him not to play, traded him to another team, moved him to the minor league, and did not choose him to be voted on as MVP of the game. And after all of the disrespect he received from the NHL, he scored two goals, “fought” Patrick Kane, captained the Pacific team to a victory, and won as a write in candidate for MVP. He was the Stone Cold Steve Austin to the NHL's Vince McMahon, and ultimately a breath of fresh air for what can be a very boring product.

But what makes the NHL All-Star game truly special is that there isn’t one every four years. The all-star game is ditched for the Winter Olympics. The NHL is filled with players from the USA, Canada, and Europe. I’ve never seen so many people care about hockey than I did in 2010 when USA lost to Canada in the finals. T.J. Oshie became a household name for a few days in 2012.

Hockey isn’t everyone’s favorite sport, but most people have never been to an NHL game. Everyone owes it to themselves to see just how fast the game is in person. This will give you a new found respect for what the game is and will let you appreciate just how much fun the All-Star game can be.

Redskins vs. Packers: Cousins Could Be Meeting His Destiny

Redskins fans should be excited.  They should be excited to be in the playoffs.  They should be excited that they did not have to wait another 15 years to see another home playoff game.  But what should excite them the most is that for the first time in 25 years they are being led into the playoff by a young and promising quarterback.  Kirk Cousins has established himself as one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league this season, and Redskins fans should be excited at the prospect of Cousins' career paralleling that of his counterpart on Sunday. 

The question surrounding Cousins this season, especially now when it looks like he will become a franchise quarterback after this season, is what type of quarterback he will turn out to be?  It may have sounded crazy at the beginning of the season, but Cousins could be staring his destiny in the eyes on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers into FedEx Field on Sunday.  Cousins and Rodgers' careers have had similar parallels that make one think that Cousins could have a career that mirrors that of Aaron Rodgers.  Both were backups for the beginning of their careers.  Both had skeptics and haters abound when they were named the unquestioned starter in their fourth season as a pro.  Both have a sneaky good athletic skill set.  Both made their first playoff start against a former Super Bowl Champion.  Rodgers's first playoff game came in his second season as a starter against Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals, a game he lost in overtime.  Rodgers now finds himself in the role of master as he faces a young apprentice making his first career playoff start.  Cousins led the Redskins to a better record and led them on more game winning drives than Aaron Rodgers did in his first season in Green Bay, and Cousins has the benefit of playing in front of his home crowd on Sunday that could propel Cousins' career in the same direction as Aaron Rodgers.  For Cousins to fulfill this destiny he will need help in all phases of the game, and it may come down to the playmakers on defense that determine whether or not we will hear "You Like That!" in Charlotte or Tempe next weekend.  Here are the keys to the game:

Experience vs. Hotness: The quarterback play of this game will be the main focus, and the big narrative will be the experience of Rodgers versus the hot streak of Cousins.  The Redskins should be wary of Rodgers coming out like it is 2010 and whipping the ball up and down the field because that is what he has done in the past.  While this season has not been his best, Rodgers is still averaging 11.0 yards per completion compared to a woeful 6.7 yards per attempt. That means that Rodgers may not be throwing the ball long on every play, but he is connecting on the long passes so the depleted Redskins secondary needs to keep up its magic.  Cousins, however, is boasting a highly improved 7.7 yards per attempt and riding an inconceivable hot streak into the playoffs.  The Redskins need to make sure they continue to be hot by protecting Cousins from the vaunted pass rush of the Packers, and by utilizing the short to intermediate passing game with Reed, Crowder, and Garcon to gain yards after the catch.  The value of the experience of Rodgers and the good fortune of Cousins in this game will be at the mercy of the eleven men on the other side of the ball.

Under Pressure: The defenses will determine which quarterbacking skill set will win out.  The Packers Defense is boasting an impressive 58.3% completion percentage, which is fourth best in the league, and they are top ten in the league in sacks.  The two things that Cousins has been able to do to create this hot streak is be the most accurate passer in the league this season while being the fifth least sacked quarterback.  If Green Bay can close the pocket and force Cousins into quick reads against a highly skilled secondary, it could be a lot of three and outs for Sean McVay's squad.  The Redskins defense needs to make sure that they are putting pressure on Rodgers who has been sacked 47 times this year, but who may have key pieces of his offensive line returning this weekend.  It is time for Ryan Kerrigan to shine in a big game, and for Preston Smith to show his worth to the league on a national stage.  The Redskins must also do what has been their strong suit so far this season in creating turnovers.  For as much as Rodgers has been sacked, the Packers have only turned the ball over 17 times this season.  The Redskins are no stranger to creating turnovers against stingy ball security teams (the Redskins faced 10 of the top 16 teams in giveaways this season while being top 10 in the league in takeaways), and they will need at least one turnover to win this game.  Pressure and turnovers will counterbalance Rodgers experience, but the Redskins defense needs to be wary of Rodgers's experience out pacing the deficiencies they have suffered due to injury.

It's A Game of Positioning: This game will be like a well played game of chess, and field position will count for a lot.  The one area where the Redskins have a sizeable advantage is yards per drive and yards per play.  The Redskins have averaged almost four more yards per drive than the Packers (31.5 to 27.8) and they are half a yard better in yards per play (5.6 to 5.1). This means that special teams and the running game will play a major part in the field position battle.  Tress Way needs to have a big day in pinning the Packers deep, and Dustin Hopkins will need to create touchbacks and hit clutch field goals.  The Redskins will also need to take advantage of a Packers defense that is giving up almost 120 yards per game and 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground.  Alfred Morris needs to continue to be solid and run effectively enough so that play action will slow the pass rush and maybe give us big plays through the air that can flip the field.  If Morris can average above 3.5 yards per carry with 70-80 yards rushing the Packers will be in trouble.  A significant deficit in starting field position will not kill the Redskins, but it will greatly help a Packers offense that is devoid of major playmakers. 

The Redskins seem to have a penchant for playing in highly poetic playoff games.  Remember the consequences that came out of the Redskins' last playoff matchup with Seattle three years ago. Now, they find themselves with a different quarterback in the same position:  Trying to prove that he is an elite quarterback in this league.  The difference in this game is that Cousins will need to vanquish one of the elite, even if the team around Rodgers has been marginalized by injury for most of the season.  It will be a close game, and I don't see Cousins going for monster stats like he has in the past four games.  Redskins fans should expect mediocre stats, but a legendary leadership performance from Cousins with him leading some gritty second half drives to either put the Redskins ahead or answer an offensive score by the Packers.  (Prediction:  Cousins gets at least one rushing TD).  The defense will play well enough to keep it close, and watch for the edge rushers to force a big sack/fumble out of Rodgers.  It will be close, but HTTR nation should put a hold on airline tickets for next weekend.

Redskins Win: 24-20

A Rivalry Rexamined: Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Washington Sports Fans may have neglected to notice that the best team in the NHL's Eastern Conference currently resides at the Verizon Center.  The Capitals are dominating their opponents this season with the newly acquired talent of players like TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, but the one constant on this team that continues to lead them to success is Alex Ovechkin.  While Ovechkin is not the omnipotent force he was early in his career, the Russian Machine has been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons into a sharp shooting opportunist who is scoring goals on more than just breakaways, powerful one timers, and toe drag moves.  Ovechkin has been able to evolve into a player who can score from close in or on rebounds and help out on the back check, which has put him in the top ten in plus/minus so far this season.  It is this evolution that has put the Capitals a top the Eastern Conference, and it should be reviving an old argument for Capital fans based on what is happening with Ovechkin's long time nemesis. 
In Western Pennsylvania, the Penguins and their captain are having somewhat of a different type of season.  The Penguins find themselves fifth in the Metropolitan Division and Sidney Crosby is not exactly having the best of seasons so far.  The normally surgical tactician has only 24 points (7 goals/17 assists) and is a -5, which should be bringing the argument of Crosby vs. Ovechkin back into the NHL consciousness if these season trends continue for both players. There is no question that right now Crosby's Stanley Cup Championship and two Gold Medals outpace Ovechkin's superior individual accomplishments, but Crosby's lackluster season so far begins to beg the question of longevity.  What happens if Crosby's production continues to wane and Ovechkin can continue to be a top 10 goal scorer for that same period of time? 

Ovechkin had his dip in production from 2010-2012 where people were asking if Ovechkin's time as a dominant goal scorer was over.  He responded with three straight Rocket Richard Trophies and has vaulted himself back into the NHL's elite.  The difference with Sidney Crosby is that he has already had a decline in production in his career.  From 2010-2013 Crosby only played in 99 games due to injury, and his overall stats subsequently took a hit.  It is scary to think of what Crosby's career numbers would be had he been able to play more over those three seasons, and he did come back to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) in 2013-2014, but another statistical dud from Crosby sans injury could begin to swing the argument back in Ovechkin's favor if Ovechkin is able to continue to be productive.  Fifty goal scorers are not common at Ovechkin's age, and if Ovechkin can score 50 even one more time it may add the dimension of prolonged success to this argument that could offset some of the significance of the championships that Crosby has won.
Wherever a current hypothetical scenario can take this argument, the current reality is that Crosby is on top due to the championships he has won with the Penguins and Team Canada.  But up until this year it almost seemed a forgone conclusion that Ovechkin would need to win a Stanley Cup before this rivalry could be revived.  Looking at the season that Crosby is having now may counter that sentiment by seeing how well each player can end their career.  If Crosby ends his career with only second/third line center production, and if Ovechkin can do what only 8 players have done in NHL history (score 50 goals after age 30) and continue to be a legit first line winger for the next three to five years, it may give Ovechkin an edge over Crosby in terms of longevity.  And if the Capitals can do what some people say they should do this year, it will vault Ovechkin over his longtime nemesis and revive a rivalry that has lain dormant for the past five years.


Redskins vs. Eagles 2: The Showcase Showdown

 

Kirk.......Cousins! Come on Down! You're the next contestant on The Price is Right for a Quarterback Who is Improving Through A Season to the Point of Leading the League in Some Statistical Categories, But Not the Categories That Drive High Contract Prices, But Gets You In the Position for the Playoffs That You Were Not Expecting So You Have to Pay Him or Else He'll Go Somewhere Else That Will Pay Him That Much Money And Psychologically You Will Not Be Able to Deal With That Kind Of Rejection.  That's not too long of a title for a game show, right? I'll also lay the rhetoric on thick by asking the question; Doesn't this weekend's game between the Eagles and the Redskins seem like one of those bad endings to The Price is Right?  Two people at the end of the show who beat out the old lady at the wheel who everyone was pulling for (the Dallas Cowboys) all just to get a shot at 2 jet skis or a trip to the Grand Canyon. It does.  All except for the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing for a contract.  If you believe the canon being spewed out by the powers that be, Cousins will be back in DC regardless of the outcome of this season.  The question is price.  The Redskins have the first bid in this Showcase Showdown, and if they beat the Eagles on Saturday Night you can believe that Cousins will fetch north of $20 Million per year solely on the fact that another team (Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis) will pay that much for his services.  But if the Redskins balk at the jet skies because it is highly regulated on the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay, it leaves room for the Eagles to swoop in and rain on Kirk Cousins' $20 Million Dollar Parade.  Here is what the Redskins need to do to ensure that they secure their first playoff berth in three years:

Nail Jell-O to the Wall: The Redskins running attack has gone through peaks and valleys this season.  Their run game has come under specific fire after the Rams game in Week 2 for not being dynamic enough, but in all of The Redskins' last four wins they have been able to amass at least 99 yards of rushing or more.  The first war on record where the casualties from combat outnumbered the casualties from disease and famine was the Russo-Japanese War of the early 20th Century.  Why?   Because the combat code of the Japanese (the Bushido) called for Japanese soldiers to have honor and die in combat so they would keep charging the Russians until they all died or they won. The Redskins would do well to heed this "stick to your solution at all costs" mentality as the running game can open up the passing game.  Keeping the down and distance manageable and continually coming at your opponent with the same tactics regardless of outcome or success will lead to a degradation of the Eagles' will.  The Redskins need to run the football, regardless of their yards per carry average.  Alfred Morris and Matt Jones will provide enough  support so that all other parts of the team will be able to function.  The one area where the Redskins outstrip the Eagles statistically is in time of possession.  Feed the ball to Morris and Jones on first and second down and good things will happen.  The Redskins will possess the ball and keep the Eagles in a constant stat of panic. This will only work if the Defense does its' job.

Limit Big Plays: Listen to these statistical anomalies.  1) The Redskins' Defense is giving up a higher yards per completion rate than the Eagles, but they are giving up a lower yards per game rate than the Eagles.  2)  The Eagles' passing yards per attempt is 0.6 yards less than the Redskins 3)  The Redskins are giving up more yards per attempt than yards per game in the running attack than the Eagles. Translation?  The Redskins give up big plays.  Look no further than last week where the Bills hit on two plays of 40 yards or more in the second half to make a game of what was otherwise a rout conducted by both the Redskins' offense and defense.  Also, the Eagles relied on two plays of 39 yards or more to keep pace with the Redskins in their first meeting of the season.  If the Redskins expect to win they will need to limit the pays of 40 yards or more, and have their defense pester Sam Bradford into turning the ball over  a whopping 15.2%, which is good for 5th highest TO% in the league.  Otherwise, the Eagles and Redskins seem evenly matched and it will come down to a matter of wills.

Win and You're In:  The narrative all throughout the preseason was how the Redskins need to rebuild, with very few people touting the talent that the Redskins compiled in the offseason (all of it is good, but read the last paragraph).  Now we find ourselves bidding first in a Showcase Showdown for the NFC East Title, in a venue and a timeslot that has not been hospitable to us in the past.  The last time the Redskins won at Lincoln Financial Field was with Robert Griffin in 2012, and we do not need to rehash the Redskins' impotence once the sun goes down.  But four months ago we were saying that six wins would be a successful season.  The Redskins have eclipsed that mark and now are one win away from making it to the playoffs.  It will not be easy against the Eagles, and I see a back and forth game for the first half.  But the Redskins' offense will prove too much to deal with, and the Redskins pass rush will eventually wear down Sam Bradford to the point of him making some costly mistakes in the second half.  Get ready HTTR nation.  We will not have to wait another decade to see a home playoff game.

Redskins Win: 30-21

Redskins vs. Bills: A Game of Unexpected Significance

When the 2015 NFL Schedule was released on April 23, anyone who was not a patient at St. Elizabeth's Hospital probably reacted to the announcement that the Redskins would play the Bills on December 20 the same way The Dude reacted to the Sheriff of Malibu.  I guess John Hinckley gets the last laugh now as the Bills come to town on Sunday with a nothing to lose attitude spiced up by that sliver of playoff hope the experts dub "not mathematically eliminated", while the Redskins come into this game with more to play for than anyone in HTTR nation could have expected seven months ago.  The most notable of these unexpected gems is a chance at the playoffs, but there are fringe story lines that will play a big part in the narrative on Sunday.  First, the Redskins have the opportunity to finish with their best home record since 2005.  There has not been much to cheer for at FedEx Field over the past decade, but the last two years in particular have exponentially exacerbated the jaded feeling Redskins fans get when they know that four hours of their Sunday will be spent in traffic on I-495 just to see their favorite team lose.  This season has been a godsend for Redskins fans who want to see their team win at home and win when there are playoff implications on the line.  Finally, the Sports Junkies reminded me on Friday morning that this could possibly be the last home game for Robert Griffin as a Redskin.  Barring any crazy finish to the season, one can assume that Dan Snyder will want to save his $16 Million and let Robert Griffin walk at the end of this season.  That means that Griffin's last home game in DC will be spent in street clothes.  A far cry from three years ago where he was being heralded as the savior of this franchise, and now he must watch helplessly as the Cain to his Abel leads the Redskins to a possible playoff berth. The Bills will not be an easy out, though, so here is what the Redskins should be focusing on to continue their playoff run:

Beware the Read Option: The Redskins will face an all too familiar foe this Sunday in LeSean McCoy, but they have never faced him with a quarterbacking counterpart as versatile as Tyrod Taylor.  Buffalo boasts the third best rushing yards per game (141.8) and per rushing attempt (4.7) in the league so far, while the Redskins' defense is giving up the fourth worst yards per attempt in the league (4.6).  To make matters worse, the Redskins have traditionally done a poor job of defending the read option.  That was on display last week where 55 of Chicago's 87 rushing yards came in the second half when the Bears started to run a more read option style running attack, and no one is really worried that Jay Cutler is going to burn you for big yardage on the ground.  But McCoy and Taylor can, so guys like Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy need to be disciplined enough to not over pursue and keep the running attack contained, and guys like Will Compton and Perry Riley need to be good about wrapping up and not getting out of position. Otherwise we may see a big day for McCoy and Taylor on the ground.  Taylor will also play a big role in the passing game.

Precision Vs. Efficiency in the Passing Game: This game will highlight two quarterbacks who have very quietly carved out a niche for themselves in the discussion of good quarterbacking play this season.  Neither of these quarterbacks would be dubbed "elite", and neither will overwhelm you with the big stats like total yards and touchdowns.  What they have done is quietly moved themselves into the top 10 in statistical categories that pits precision against efficiency this weekend at FedEx Field. 
Kirk Cousins is precise.  He has been the most accurate quarterback this season putting up a league leading completion percentage of 69.2%, and he is in the top 10 in passes completed and passes completed per game.  Detractors will point to the fact that he is throwing shorter routes, but he is making good decisions and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers more often than naught.  Cousins has been able to win because of his precision, but Taylor has been able to win because he is efficient.  Taylor has the fifth highest quarterback rating this season at 100.9, which is better than both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.  He is also fifth in yards per attempt and sixth in yards per completion, and doing this without being in the top 10 in total attempts or yards.  This means that Taylor is throwing the ball long, completing the ball long, and not making many mental errors in his throwing game.  This will be a test of who can make the least amount of mistakes, while at the same time being the best in their respective statistical categories.  Kirk Cousins will need to be true to his completion percentage in order to keep drives alive, and Taylor will need to be completing long passes to force the Redskins out of their methodical offensive pace. 

Win And You're In: Here we are again.  The Redskins find themselves in a must win game to keep pace with a suddenly resurgent Eagles and Giants on their heels.  The Redskins faced a similar opportunity two weeks ago on Monday Night against the Cowboys, when they had a chance to pull away from the rest of the NFC East.  Instead we got a classic Redskins boner performance in prime time. Now they face a very dangerous Bills team that could turn this game into a track meet if the Redskins decide not to show up. The Redskins will give up big yards on the ground, but they will not allow the Bills to get into the end zone and force more field goals than touchdowns.  The Redskins will win by doing the opposite, and scoring touchdowns for every Buffalo field goal.  The Redskins will win, which will set up a huge match against the Eagles next week.

Redskins win: 28-23