Redskins vs. Buccanneers: "You Like That?"

The three words that will be heard around the DC area, and define the current state of the Redskins season, for at least the next 36-48 hours.  Kirk Cousins's showing of emotion after the biggest comeback win in Redskins history was as appropriate as it was a little corny with his voice cracking the second time he said it.  But his charged up rhetoric put an exclamation point on the statement that the Redskins and Cousins made on the field against the Buccaneers on Sunday.  This team has what it takes.  This team has the ability to win the game by imposing their will rather than relying on timely turnovers by the other team.  This team has the guts to go for a 4th and 2 at midfield with two minutes left before halftime, and call an onside kick in the middle of the third quarter knowing that if they don't get it they give the ball and momentum back to the other team.  They have the fortitude to not give up at the five yard line after a 49 yard run that put the Bucs in almost guaranteed touchdown territory.  Finally, and most importantly, this team has a quarterback that has developed the mental fortitude to win in high pressure situations. 

This mental fortitude was the most important thing that he needed to work on this offseason, and while the Jets game showed that Cousins can still throw a good old fashioned Kirk Cousins interception party, he has also shown the ability to perform in high pressure situations.  He has won two games this season in the last minute, where he led long 2 minute drives that ended with him throwing the winning touchdown.  He got the Atlanta game to overtime with only 50 seconds left in regulation, and he had the offense humming in OT until he threw the game ending pick six.  Cousins has proven that he can be a competent NFL quarterback over the first seven games of this season, and that he is making strides in improving his play.  The real test will be coming up after the bye week when he must continue his improvement at New England, home against the Saints, and at Carolina.  What he has done now with this win, however, is given the Redskins a new chance at the season.

Hopefully the Redskins will be going into Foxboro two weeks from now with a healthy Desean Jackson and a game plan that reflects the threat that he poses.  That would not mean much if the Redskins were blown out by the Buccaneers, but this comeback win should galvanize the Redskins resolve.  The NFC East is wide open, and this win keeps them in the mix for a possible playoff spot given one of their biggest offensive weapons has been absent all season.  Redskins fans must also accept the fact, however, that there is a good chance that 5 weeks from now we could be 3-8 and going over all the talking points that were hashed out this past week after the loss to the Jets.  Then again, there is a chance we could be 7-4.  Whatever the outcome over the next month may be, what Cousins and the Redskins have done this week is show that they are ready for whatever comes at them, and they have turned a tepid plea for evaluation into an irreverent rhetorical question.  "You Like That?".

Redskins vs. Jets: Cousins Needs to Prove His Worth

Kirk Cousins needs to prove to the Redskins that he can win big games against winning teams on the road.  The past two weeks he has shown that he can engineer late drive that put the Redskins in a position to win the game, but he also showed his penchant for throwing soul crushing interceptions at critical points in the game that left HTTR nation staring at their TV's for the next hour in catatonic disbelief.  Kirk Cousins also needs to prove to the Jets that maybe he was worth more than they thought when they inquired about a trade earlier this season after they realized that their quarterback was just as bad at debt collection as he was throwing fade routes.  It will not be an easy task this week as Cousins goes up against a stingy Jets defense that is only giving up 280 yards and a league best 13.8 points per game so far this season.  The Jets offense, however, is not over imposing as a team and they benefit from a defense that puts them in advantageous positions.  If the Redskins can execute on both sides of the ball they stand a very good chance at putting themselves in coin flip game that may come down to another Kirk Cousins last minute drive.  It all starts with field position.

You know where it ends.  It depends on where you start:  When looking at the offensive stats between these two teams, it seems as if they would be evenly matched.  They have nearly identical yards per passing attempt (6.6 WAS/6.4 NY), yards per completion (9.7/10.5), net yards per passing attempt (6.2 for both), yards per rushing attempt (4.1/4.2), and they are both scoring on 33.3% of their drives.  So what is the explanation for the Jets averaging almost 5 points more per game than the Redskins when the Jets average less time of possession per drive, less plays per drive, and less yards per drive than the Redskins?  The answer is field position.  The Jets average starting field position is their own 33.2 yard line, which is second best in the league and almost ten yards more than the Redskins.  This number is bolstered by the Jets' defense forcing 13 turnovers so far this season, so if the Redskins plan on staying close they need to win the field position battle by limiting turnovers and getting a big day from Tress Way and the punt coverage team.  They need to give Ryan Fitzpatrick a long field to work with in order to test his ability to sustain longer drives, and put him in passing situations to allow the Redskins to do something that not many of the Jets' previous opponents have done.

Get to Ryan Fitzpatrick:  It may not have occurred to anyone, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has only been sacked twice this season. Twice in four games.  It helps that the Jets have faced the two teams with the lowest sack totals in the league (Indianapolis 6, Miami 1), but the Browns and Eagles have similar sack totals to the Redskins.  If the Redskins plan on controlling field position and limiting the offensive success of the Jets they need to put Ryan Fitzpatrick under assault.  The Redskins front seven needs to get pressure on Fitzpatrick so as to not allow Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to have big days against a depleted Redskins secondary.  If the Redskins defense cannot get two or more sacks and hurry Fitzpatrick's throws we may see some long sustained drives from the Jets because...

Chis Ivory Has Been Reborn: Ivory was an afterthought in New Orleans, but his move to the north has been nothing short of miraculous.  Ivory is averaging 104 yards per game, which is tied for best in the league, and he is averaging 5.0 yards per attempt.  This is not good for a Redskins defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per attempt this season, and who could be spread out if Fitzpatrick is allowed to stretch the field with Brandon Marshall.  Containing Chris Ivory will be contingent upon whether or not the Redskins can hurry Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it will be easier on Fitzpatrick if Ivory can go for his average yards per attempt every time he touches the ball.  The Giants showed that the Redskins can be vulnerable to a committed running game, and the Redskins need to be ready for a heavy does of Chris Ivory.  The Redskins need to respond in kind, but with a different focus with their running backs.

Trust the Short Game:  The Redskins offense needs to trust in their ability to get small chunks of yards that put them in manageable down and distances.  The Jets' defense is only giving up 4.5 yards per pass, 3.8 yards per run, a 16.3% scoring average, and a 24.5% turnover average.  This means they are not giving up big plays, not allowing the other team to score often, and turning them over at a high clip.  The Redskins need to understand that they will be in a lot of third downs, so they need to rely on short runs and screens to make those third downs manageable.  Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder need to have big days in the short passing game, and with Matt Jones's health being a questions mark they need Alfred Morris to fall forward and get positive yardage.  Finally, they need to hit on their home run balls.  Rashad Ross showed that he can be a valuable deep threat last week drawing a crucial pas interference call.  The Redskins will need to take their shots, and Ross should see at least two deep balls thrown his way to keep the short game viable.

At best this will be a coin flip game if the Redskins are able to execute.  If they turn the ball over, muff punts, and allow the Jets to have favorable field position it could turn into another day like the last one they had in the Meadowlands.  But if Cousins can show that he may be worth at least what the Redskins gave up for him, he could once again prove that the Redskins may have made the right choice in turning down the Jets' offer.  I still think that the Jets' defense will prove too much for Sean McVay's scheme, Ivory will give the Redskins front seven fits, and the Redskins will commit an untimely turnover that swings the balance of the game late.

24-13 Redskins Lose

Redskins vs. Falcons: Are the Redskins or Falcons For Real?

Will the Redskins be able to methodically move the ball in order to score and keep Matt Ryan off the field?  Or, will Matt Ryan be able to rain down 20-30 yard passes against a depleted Redskins secondary in order to win the game?  Does any of this even matter?  It does matter when you consider that two of the three touchdowns the Redskins gave up last week were on passes of 30 yards or more, and now they have to play against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  It matters when the Falcons give up less running yards per offensive possession than the Redskins' previous foe; The Philadelphia Eagles.  It all matters when the game on paper looks like an air raid conducted with impunity by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones that will crush any hopes of this season being anything but salvageable for the Redskins.  It is easy to point to a depleted Redskins secondary to state the keys of the game, but that does not mean that it is the wrong answer.  The Redskins will need to find an answer for the likes of Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and their old pal Leonard Hankerson in order to limit the amount of big plays the Falcons are able to convert against their defense.  The Falcons will need to get the Redskins off of the field on third down, and clog up the short to mid range passing lanes in order to fluster Kirk Cousins into one of his patented 3rd quarter, back breaking, interceptions.  The subtleties of this game are far deeper, and the Redskins would be wise to learn from these outlines in order to be successful on Sunday.   

Scoring when we get inside the Atlanta 30 yard line: Any scoring will do.  The Redskins are only scoring on 32% of their drives as opposed to Falcons scoring on 45% of their drives.  If the Redskins expect to win against a team that outscores them 34-19 on average this season they need to get points whenever they cross the Falcons 30 yard line.  Touchdowns are preferable, but field goals will serve their purpose.  The Redskins just need to show that they can score on every possession and put the pressure on the Falcons to do the same.  Take a lesson from the Giants game on Thursday Night, and see how field goals can be integral to success.  Dustin Hopkins needs be perfect in order for the Redskins to win the game.  One missed kick (field goal or extra point) will cost them the game against a team that has the ability to score quickly against a depleted secondary.  This scoring will do no good, however, if the Redskins cannot continue their time of possession dominance and limit the Falcons chances at scoring.

Get Yards the Hard Way: Running the ball will be the Redskins best friend.  Atlanta's defense has faced the second least amount of rushing attempts in the league this season (77), and they are giving up the eighth most yards per rushing attempt (4.4).  The Redskins are averaging the third best yards per attempt average in the league (4.4), and they are averaging the most rushing yards per game (139.5).  They also showed versatility within the running game last week with the emergence of Chris Thompson.  Thompson gives their running game and added dynamic of speed and catching ability out of the backfield, and if the Falcons are unable to shut down one of these running backs it could be a field day for the Redskins running attack.  They should run the ball at least 30 times in order to control the clock, put themselves in manageable down and distances, and to test a Falcons defense that has not been run on heavily over the first three games.  As much as I love Alfred Morris because he is on my fantasy team, I see Matt Jones getting a bigger workload this week in order to show the Falcons some breakaway speed between the tackles. Chris Thompson should also see between 5-10 carries in order to set up screen passes on third down.  Expect to see one Thompson screen pass go for over 20 yards in this game.  Running the ball will limit the Falcons's possessions, but the Redskins cannot hold onto the ball forever.  The defense will need to step up in big situations.

The Most Dangerous Receivers Do Not Wear #11: Julio Jones will get his. There should be no analysis on what to do about him because you know he is going to get the yardage if a pass can be thrown to him.  The Redskins need to make sure that they can put as many people on Jones as possible by stopping Leonard Hankerson and Devonta Freeman in the passing game.  Hankerson has benefitted from Jones taking the pressure off of him and allowing him to go for 14.2 yards per reception so far this season, which is a better average than Julio Jones. Freeman has just as many receptions as Hankerson, and the Falcons will look to keep the linebackers and safeties looking for the short pass in order to open up deep routes for Julio Jones. The Redskins need to find a way to marginalize these two receiving threats in order to put more of their energy in stopping Julio Jones.  If Hankerson and Freeman go for more than 120 combined receiving yards it shows that the Redskins are unable to stop the Falcons secondary passing attack, and that they will be relying on Kirk Cousins to once again engineer a magnificent performance. 

Need Another Big Day From Cousins and Linebackers: Who has given up the fourth most passing yards in the league so far this year?  That's right. It's the Falcons.  And those yards have come in 175 attempts with a 65% completion rate and averaging 305 yards per game.  Those numbers are not outrageous, but it shows that this team can be thrown on.  Look for Cousins to have another efficient game if we want to win, and look for an increased role for Rashad Ross to burn downfield in order to open up the intermediate passing lanes.  The linebackers also need a big day getting to Matt Ryan and containing Devonta Freeman.  Murphy and Kerrigan need to flash some lateral speed in the flat, while splicing in some rushes that force Matt Ryan to move his feet in the pocket.  Preston Smith should see an increased workload in order to provide more speed on the outside, and don't be surprised if you hear Jackson Jeffcoat's name called more than once in celebration of a big play.  Anything less than 300 yards passing and no sacks spells doom for the Redskins.

The recipe for success against the Falcons is that they need to be challenged on the ground so we can hold the ball, and then hope that Julio Jones shows mercy.  Cousins also needs to show that he can string together two good performances in a row and win on the road.  The Redskins have not met a matchup as hard as this one, but neither have the Falcons.  Ultimately, I see The Falcons home field advantage being too strong for the Redskins to overcome this week in Atlanta.

24-21 Redskins lose.

The University of Under Armour Needs a New Coach

Randy Edsall just didn't cut it.  He didn't cut it from the moment he was announced as the head coach in 2011 and everyone had to Google his name to figure out who he was.  Instead of Mike Leach locking players in cramped spaces and running ridiculous offensive spread sets that would turn Byrd Stadium into a track meet facility; we got Randy Edsall.  Edsall was a tepid choice at best, especially when the recently hired Kevin Anderson canned a beloved alumnus to hire a guy whose persona and football style catered to a demographic that was old enough to remember D-Day.  Leach was the choice that moved the needle, but in 2011 Anderson was more concerned with image rather than ticket sales and not thinking about who paid the bills around the University of Maryland's Athletic Department.  With Edsall looking to be on the outs as early as next week, Kevin Plank will be reminding Mr. Anderson that he has a large emotional and financial stake in the hiring of the new coach based on what Under Armour has done for the University of Maryland.

The New York Times puts all of this in perspective in one great article written in August of this year.  Kevin Plank, whether implicitly or explicitly, want Maryland to be Oregon East.  He wants to make his alma mater the athletic Mecca that will attract athletes and innovators in the field of athletics to College Park for decades to come.  He wants Lord Baltimore's coat of arms to be worn around the country so that The University of Maryland will be synonymous with winning in a cool way.  He wants this so long as all of this comes with an Under Armour logo on the side.  He has proven this by putting up $25 million "gift" for the new Cole Field House renovations that will create the premier athletic research and training facility in the country.  The article also states that Under Armour extended their contract with Maryland that pays the University $33 million in cash and apparel, and Plank has been noted to test new apparel out with the Maryland football team.  And then there is this beautiful nugget from the article that explains it all:

Mr. Plank’s influence at Maryland does not extend to the hiring and firing of coaches, according to Maryland and Under Armour officials. But he is not a passive check-writing machine. Mr. Anderson said his interview process, which culminated with his hiring as the athletic director in 2010, included an interview with Mr. Plank.  

This is a nice way of saying that Kevin Plank works behind the scenes.  It is the old adage, "If I'm not in the room to see Kevin Plank or Under Armour involved in the hiring of coaches/development of the athletic budget/recruitment of athletes, then it never really happened, right?"  This is not to say that it actually happens.  I have no proof of that.  But suffice to say that Plank and Under Armour's financial influence within the University of Maryland's Athletic Department has grown exponentially since Edsall's hiring in 2011, and they are expecting returns on their investments that Edsall was not meeting.  Forget the reports that state the players were tuning him out and look to the more important fact that attendance has been going down this year to the tune of 13% lower than last year.  Kevin Plank cannot have another ho-hum pick at head coach and luckily there is one right up I-95.

Chip Kelly.  Everyone says it is crazy, but Kevin Plank should be loading up dump trucks full of money to send to Chip Kelly's house right now.  His hiring would set College Park on fire, and it is not too far fetched to think he may come given a Godfather like package.  His position in Philly is tenuous at best and his reputation was made in the college ranks.  He would not have to move far, and he would be set in a fertile recruiting area with the full backing of the University, Kevin Plank, and Under Armour.  Kelly could also have the chance to prove himself against the likes of fellow spread offense aficionado Urban Meyer and resident Big 10 Golden Boy Jim Harbaugh.  There are downsides to Kelly coming here, and it may cost a pretty penny for him to leave the Eagles, but 2011 showed that the safe hire gets you safe results and Kevin Plank is not shelling out $33 million per year to go 7-6.  It has to be Chip Kelly, if for no other reason than he will electrify the boosters and fan base in a way Randy Edsall never did. Edsall was hired for the University of Maryland's image. Chip Kelly will be hired for one thing and one thing only.  To win for the University of Under Armour.

Redskins vs. Eagles: Redskins Must Not Revive Another Nemesis's Season

Do you know what nemesis means? One of the Redskins' nemeses got theirs last Thursday night as the Redskins began to fill their obligatory annual quota of bad losses in big situations that revive the other team's season.  The Redskins gave a reprieve to another floundering Giants team last Thursday night and breathed life into their otherwise pathetic season.  We will see if that win means anything to the Giants, but after a week of high hopes and nickname contests for the Redskins running back tandem HTTR nation was brought back down to Earth after the loss to the Giants.  Now all the cynicism and insecurities have been running rampant for the last 10 days as another nemesis comes to town looking for a little pick me up for their season.  The Eagles offense finally came through last week, and they look to a Redskins team in limbo and a soggy FedEx Field to resuscitate their chances at an NFC East title.  The Redskins were too happy to oblige the Giants when they were in dire need of a win, and the Eagles present a style of play that could wreak havoc on an injury ridden Redskins team. The weather will also produce challenges of its own, but the Redskins must trust in their system and know that the Eagles' flaws are gaping and could be exploited to great effect.  The keys to this game are as follows:

Let Sam Bradford Throw The Ball:  Just do not let the Eagles running attack get going.  The Eagles win last week was predicated on Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles running for 123 yards last week and taking the pressure off of Sam Bradford and the Eagles passing offense that has been statistically abysmal this season.  They are tied for last in the league in yards per completion (9.3) and longest completion (32 yards), and they are next to last in yards per attempt (5.8).  Couple that with an offense that has the worst average time per drive (1:48), the lowest average yards per drive (21.4), and scores on only 22.5% of their offensive drives (second worst percentage in the league), and you see that the Eagles rushing attack was their savior last week by lengthening drives and allowing Bradford's short passing game to be effective.  Bradford is not throwing the ball far, but he can be effective if given short down and distances and a depleted secondary to throw against.  He will get the latter on Sunday as the Redskins will probably be missing their top two cornerbacks in Chris Culliver and DeAngelo Hall.  What the Redskins need to do is win the yardage battle on first down, contain the Eagles running attack, and support a depleted secondary by blitzing selectively.  If the Redskins become too blitz happy it may give Bradford easy pre-snap reads and the ability to catch them overcommitting against the run.  The Redskins defense should drop back to cover the medium to short passing routes and not leave their young corners on an island.  They will also need a big push from the defensive line to control the running game.  If Matthews and Sproles are able to do what the Giants did and put the Redskins defense in short third downs it may be a long day for the Redskins defense.

Limit the Eagles' Opportunities:  Sproles returned a punt last week, and the Eagles were also able to get a touchdown off of a Brandon Marshall fumble that gave them a short field to work with.  This allowed them to go up big on the Jets.  Special teams returns and turnovers are something that the Redskins may have a tough time avoiding, and it has nothing to do with Cousins's penchant for throwing interceptions. The Eagles Defense is forcing a turnover in one out of every five offensive possessions they face this season, which is third best in the league. They have only turned two of those turnovers into points, but in a game that could be a monsoon it does not bode well for the Redskins who have an interception prone quarterback, a rookie running back with a history of ball control issues, and a special teams unit that is just itching to give up a game breaking return.  Both offense and special teams need to be sharp if they are to limit big plays and execute the final key to success.

Ball Control/Cousins Bounce Back:  Cousins had a bad game last week, but he has shown better resiliency this season in coming back from mistakes within the game.  He will need to show that he can come back from game to game because the Redskins Offense faces another stout run defense.  The Eagles run defense is allowing the lowest yards per attempt in the league (3.1), and with the Redskins' offensive line possibly being without Morgan Moses, Kory Lichtensteiger, and Josh LeRibeus it could be another long day for the Redskins running attack.  Cousins will need to prove that he can throw the ball effectively and efficiently to take pressure off of the running game.  Jordan Reed is an easy person to mark as needing to have a big game, but also look for Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson to turn short passes into big gains with their legs that could keep the Eagles defense honest if they begin to crowd the line of scrimmage.  Jones and Morris should be given the ball early to give the Redskins favorable down and distance, but they also need to make sure they get positive yardage to give Cousins a chance to extend drives.  Chip K
elly's offense runs at a quick pace, and if the Redskins Defense is out there for too long they become more susceptible to big plays.  The Redskins need to run the ball over 25 times for at least 80 yards to be successful.  Anything less means they are not controlling the clock, Cousins is having to throw more, and the Redskins will not come out on top. 

This could be Thursday Night all over again.  Philly has the ability to stop the Redskins running attack and force Kirk Cousins into doing what he does best; throwing untimely interceptions. They also have the up-tempo offense needed to put the Redskins in a hole that will force them to throw if they get down by a fair margin.  The Eagles, though, have shown the ability to have crappy drives that give the ball back on downs.  The Redskins need to force Bradford to make decisions after the snap by dropping into coverage, and they need to control the ball with positive runs, accurate passes, and a little speed here and there from the likes of Thompson and Crowder.  This is going to be an ugly one, but all the Redskins need is a win and they will get it.

20-17 Redskins Win.