Redskins vs. Giants Part Deux: The World is Changing

No. The Redskins are not the powers of Isengard and Mordor combined.  But after reading this article about Tony Romo's future and watching the total implosion of the Eagles on national television, this statement from Saruman seemed appropriate for the current state of affairs in the NFC East.  The Cowboys season is all but lost, and they now need to start seriously considering a plan for their quarterback position post Tony Romo.  The Eagles' public disembowelment on Thanksgiving showed that they also have little hope for the future with their current quarterbacks, and they may not have much confidence in anything Chip Kelley does for them outside of ordering lunch.  And even that may get dicey at times.  Which brings us to Sunday's rematch of the other two teams in the division. 

The Giants lead the division, but their last two losses came on the last play of the game where they allowed the Saints and Patriots to drive down the field in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.  The Giants may be losing that moxie that saved them so many times in close situations, and Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning are not getting any younger.  But the Redskins have at least some confidence in their quarterback for this season and possibly for the future. If you believe the reports that came out this week, The Redskins have enough confidence in Gruden that he will return next year.  All of this makes this game on Sunday more than just a battle for first place this year.  It could give the Redskins organization the shot of confidence they need to fill the looming vacuum that is being created by the hubris, incompetence, and aging of the other teams in the NFC East.  If the Redskins would like to change their fortunes this weekend here is what they need to do.

If you can't get up for a game like this.......: All poetic gravitas aside, the Redskins are playing for a tie for first place in the NFC East.  That should be enough motivation for the Redskins to come out firing on all cylinders, but if they need more motivation they should look at the records of the remaining opponents for all the NFC East teams:

Giants remaining opponents:      34-27
Eagles remaining opponents:      32-18
Cowboys remaining opponents: 21-20 (play redskins twice)
Redskins remaining opponents: 22-31 (play cowboys twice)

The Redskins have the easiest schedule on paper for the remainder of the season, but remember that the Redskins also have three more road games to play.  A win would put them in the drivers seat, but a loss would almost force them to win out in order to try and make the playoffs. 

Leave the Run; Take the Pass: It would behoove the Redskins to focus on beating the Giants defense with the pass first. The Giants have given up the most total completions, total passing yards, and yards per game so far this season.  They are also tied with the Falcons for fewest number of sacks this season with 12.  This plays into the Redskins passing style that relies on high completion percentage (Cousins is third in the league) and not taking sacks because of getting the ball out quickly.  Look for a lot of Jordan Reed to exploit the middle of the field, and quick hitters to Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to alleviate pressure.  Also, look for Crowder to get some looks with wide receiver screens to make the Giants spread out.  If the Redskins can get the passing game going it may open up the running lanes enough to have some success.  This is all predicated on the Redskins doing one thing.

Clock Control: The Redskins need to control the clock.  The Giants' offensive strength is efficiency.  The Giants score on 42.7% of their drives which is good for third in the league behind New England and Arizona, and only 0.7% ahead of Carolina who showed what can happen to the Redskins if they allow a team to score on every possession.  The Giants are also only turning the ball over on 9.1% of their drives compared to the Redskins who turn the ball over on 17.6% of their drives.  What's worse is that the Giants defense forces a turnover on 19.3% of their drives which is second best in the league behind Carolina. What all of this means is that the Giants score a lot, they don't turn the ball over very much, and if you are holding onto the ball too long they are taking it back so they can score again.  The Redskins need to be able to keep pace with the Giants by matching their efficiency through clock control and limiting turnovers.  Short passes will be the name of the game on Sunday, and taking advantage of favorable running situations in order to keep the ball away from the Giants' offense.

A Test of Character:  Finally, forgetting all the stats, this game will be about whether or not this team has really had a character change.  The talk this week has been about how good the Redskins have been at home this season and how well they have bounced back from losses, but certain individuals must answer the call to prove these notions are not just talking points for TV analysts.  Kirk Cousins needs to prove that he can win a game with legitimate playoff implications when all eyes are on him.  The defense needs to prove that it can come up with big stops against a team that terrorized them earlier this season, and who will look to exploit their deficiencies in the run game.  Finally, the coaching staff needs to prove that they can come up with a solid game plan in a meaningful game.  Just like Cousins, this will be Jay Gruden's first game as a head coach where there are legitimate playoff implications. How this team responds to the opening call, and how they adjust to the flow of the game will show how good of a head coach Jay Gruden really is. 

I have a bad feeling about this game.  The Giants' offense has been clicking the past three weeks, while the Redskins' defense continues to fall into despair.  No Chris Culliver means that Odell Beckham should be going all Keyshawn on Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin.  But I will go with the title of this article and say the world is changing.  Cousins has a solid, but not flashy, game and the defense is able to come up with one big play that keeps us in the game.  It will be close either way, but I'll believe the Redskins can do it.

Redskins win 24-20

Keep KC in DC

One way to become popular is to leech off the popularity of others.  So I thought I would rebrand a pipe dream of a slogan into something that could actually happen.  Keep KC in DC.  The Redskins need to start talking with Kirk Cousins about a contract extension based on his performance over the last three games, his evolution as a passer and leader over the course of this season, and the fact that the future alternatives for the Redskins are ambiguous at best.  Here is a list of reasons why the Redskins need to Keep KC in DC.

Who Would We Replace Him With?
Here is the list of winners who will be free agents with Cousins this offseason. The problem for the Redskins is Cousins has played well enough to out pace all of these guys on that list. If the Redskins let Cousins test the open market he will be the best free agent out there, and you have to assume that teams like the Texans, Jets, Bills, Browns, Broncos, Eagles, and maybe the Rams will put in competitive offers for Cousins's services.  With so many teams in need of a quarterback, and Cousins being 27 and at the top of the free agent list, it is not unlikely that he decides to go where the money is good because this may be his only shot at a big payday. 

Another alternative is the draft, but that road is fraught with even more uncertainty.  The top quarterbacks in the Draft this year are Christian Hackenberg who sucks (I don't care how good he was his freshman year and the "James Franklin's offense ruined his development" argument.  If we let Cousins go for this guy I will be livid), Cardale Jones (read the passage beginning "Said one AFC GM" below the picture of Jones and read the quote from Phil Savage below the picture of Jamarcus Russell), and Connor Cook who may be better but it may also take him time to acclimate to the offense.  The other caveat to these quarterbacks is Cousins may play so well that the Redskins are out of position to draft these guys even if they wanted to.  This list of alternative quarterbacks to Cousins should have Scot McCloughan holding a reverse telethon where he has all the people in the background calling Cousins's agent nonstop.  There are no clear alternatives that are better than Cousins at the moment, and Cousins will be the most sought after free agent quarterback in the offseason.  And for good reason because he has shown improvement over this season.

Cousins's Game Has Evolved Over the Course of the Season
Cousins's stats for the first 6 games of the season (record 2-4):
66.2% completion    1420 yards (237 y/g)    6 TD     8 INT

Cousins's stats the last 3 games:
71.4% completion    858 yards (286 y/g)     8 TD      1 INT

Small sample size for the last three, but suffice to say that Cousins has improved immensely over the last three games.  We will know more when Cousins has to go into Carolina and then come back to DC to face the Giants over Thanksgiving weekend, but there has been improvement over this season to warrant keeping Cousins here. 

Cousins Is the Leader
This is more of an arbitrary qualitative measure but look at what Cousins has done this season.  He has led two dramatic game winning drives, one game tying drive with 50 seconds left, he coined one super charged catch phrase, he would have kept pace with the Patriots if not for a parade of ineptitude, and he hung 47 points on a Saints team that pumped up the defense so much that it led to this exchange at the end of the game.  Imitation is the highest form of flattery, and in this case Chris Baker's action said more than his words.  It shows that the defense is on board with Cousins.  Winning helps that notion take hold, but over the last three games you have seen a concerted effort from the defense to give Kirk every chance to move the ball because he has proven that he has the ability to win games.  Cousins also boasts the fourth highest completion percentage in the league which keep his receivers happy and the offense on the field.  And when he is out there, especially the last three games, you just get this sense that he has command over this offense.  He has cut down on the turnovers, he rarely takes sacks (only Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played 9 or more games and been sacked less than Cousins), his accuracy has gone through the roof when teams know that his game is short to intermediate, and he has developed a passing report with numerous receivers. You just get the sense that something good is going to happen on every offensive possession, and that is not something we have felt in a while.

At this moment the price tag should be about a three to four year contract worth about 5-7 million per year.  If Cousins's agent is smart he will start a bidding war with the team, using his free agent status as leverage, and the contract may get extended longer and for more money.  My guess is that if the Redskins keep winning you could see a four to five year contract worth 10 million plus.  Well worth it for a fourth round pariah who was seen as a coach's hubris pick.  Now, Kirk Cousins is poised to lead the Redskins on a Divisional Championship run that could make him the hottest free agent this summer if the Redskins do not play their cards right.  Let's do the right thing and Keep KC in DC.

Redskins vs Patriots: "You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss"

Words of wisdom from Omar Little that the Redskins would be wise to heed tomorrow as they take the field in Foxboro for the first time in eight years; and we all remember what happened that day.  Not much has changed has changed since that fateful day. The Patriots still do what they do best: win.  The Redskins still do what they do best: play as inconsistently as possible to always keep a sense of hope within the fan base that will ultimately be crushed at the end of the season.  The pundits believe in these roles so much that they write headlines like these on their websites about this game.  And why shouldn't they?  The Patriots have trailed in only three games this season for a grand total of 36:58 of game time.  That means that the Patriots have been trailing for only 8% of their 2015 season, and the Patriots' home win/loss numbers with Tom Brady starting are even more staggering.  The last time Tom Brady lost at home was December 16, 2013 against the 49ers.  In fact, since Tom Brady became the starter in 2001 he has only lost 13 games at Gillette Stadium, and he has only lost three home game since 2010.  So everyone treating this game as an automatic win for the Patriots should rest easy.  If the Redskins plan on not making this game a laugher like the last one they must be better than they have been all season, and if they want to do what only three teams have done in Foxboro in the last five years they must not miss in any facet of the game.  It is a long shot, but here is how they could possibly shock the world.

The Guessing Game:  Question 1:  Who is the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL this season?  Obviously it is Kirk Cous......wait, what?  You're not hallucinating.  Kirk Cousins has only been sacked 8 times this season which is the second least amount of sacks in the NFL behind the Jets.  The Patriots' defense has 26 sacks this season which is good for second best in the league, so the Redskins will have their hands full protecting Cousins this week.  Question 2: Which team has allowed more passing yards this season?  That's right.  The Patriots have allowed 142 more passing yards this season than the Redskins, probably because they have been bludgeoning teams so bad that they have to throw the ball.  Question 3: Who is giving up more rushing yards per game this season?  Of course it is the Redskins.  Washington is giving up the third most rushing yards per game this season, which means that we may see a more run heavy attack from New England to start this game.  With no real threat being posed by the Redskins on paper, it may not be out of the question for the Pats to come out running to see if they can control the one part of the game where the Redskins have the advantage.

Time Is  The Only Thing On The Redskins' Side:  The Redskins' average offensive drive is lasting 25 seconds longer than the Patriots.  If the Redskins expect to be anywhere close to winning they must have that type of ball control though short passing and manageable down and keeping manageable down and distance.  Look for Cousins to be true to his league lowest yards per completion (9.3) and third lowest yards per attempt (6.5) numbers by throwing short passes to control the clock.  Short passes may also lull the Patriots into a false sense of security and allow the Redskins to go over the top.  If the Redskins cannot connect on a pass play longer than 30 yards we may be in trouble. And for all the criticism about the Redskins running woes, as long as they are getting positive yardage it is a good thing.  The Redskins must be going forward at all times and keep the distance for every down in the single digits while controlling the clock.  As long as the game is close, the Redskins should feed the ball to Morris and Jones at least 20 times combined considering that the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per attempt and have faced the third lowest number of rushing attempts so far this season due to their dominance. 

Patriots Dominance:  The Patriots are scoring on 55.6% of their drives this season and only turning the ball over on 3.7% of their drives which is best in the league for both stats.  They have the second best yards per play average in the league (6.3) and the third best yards per drive (35.9).  Oh, and they are averaging a league best 35.6 points per game.  All of this means that the Redskins will be going up against the best, and they need to play a boring, methodical, and perfect game to win.

This will be a battle to see if the Redskins can execute the short game and grind the Patriots down.  New England is scoring every other time they touch the ball, so the Redskins need to control the time of possession through short throws and hard fought runs.  Expect to see a lot of Pierre Garcon as he is the best receiver the Redskins have in tough short yardage situations, and watch for Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder to get a lot of looks in the short medium range.  Defensively they need to not miss chances.  They will not stop the Patriots offense, but when they get their chance to stop them on third down, get an interception, recover a fumble, get a sack, they must execute.  No fancy stats for the defense because if we go by stats the Redskins defense has no chance.  This game will be won on the words of Omar Little, and I'm going with a blind homer pick for this game.  Cousins is able to march the offense methodically down the field and the defense comes up with one big turnover that is the difference in the game.

Redskins win 28-27

Meet The Candidates for Maryland's Head Football Coaching Position

This weekend's loss at Iowa officially allowed Maryland fans to classify this season as a dumpster fire.  It took our leading receiver three catches to amass 18 yards, our leading rusher was our quarterback, and it took another Will Likely special teams return to make the score look more respectable than it really was.  This was the latest installment of an offense that ranks 110th in the nation in average yards per game, 113th in passing yards per game, and dead last in turnover margin and interceptions thrown.  These numbers should have the Kevins (Anderson and Plank) looking to hire a coach who is going to give a shot in the arm to the side of the ball that puts the proverbial butts in the seats.  So here is a review of the candidates SweetDCSports believes the Kevins are looking at to skipper The USS Turtle Tears out of troubled waters in 2016 starting with the current steward of the throne.

Mike Locksley

I'm sure the Kevins are having a long and hard discussion about whether or not to hire Locksley as their head coach.  And why not?  He has brought top level talent from the DC area to every school he has coached, and he revitalized the perception that Maryland cannot recruit when he was rehired in 2011 and promptly landed top level recruits like Stefon Diggs.  The problem has been in talent development, especially at the quarterback position.  Under Locksley's tenure the Terps ran Danny O'Brien out of town a year after he was named the ACC Freshman of the Year.  C.J. Brown was a dual threat helped out by a slew of medical redshirts and Stefon Diggs not leaving after his sophomore season.  And now it falls to the Locksley recruited Perry Hills who has thrown 10 interceptions in 5 games this season.  There has not been a lot of growth from the quarterbacks position under a guy whose title is offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach, and Shane Cockerille's move from QB to fullback should give the Kevins pause about what they can expect from Dwayne Haskins if Locksley is allowed to continue as head coach.  In my mind they should be looking elsewhere, but Locksley will be a strong candidate until the end due to his ability to recruit and his ties to the DC area.

With that out of the way, here are the head coaches who the Kevins should be desperately seeking:

Matt Rhule (Temple)

I must admit that I was unaware of Temple's rapid rise to college football relevance until this past weekend.  Now, everyone knows Matt Rhule's name as he is on the short list for every coaching job East of the Mississippi regardless of whether that position is vacant or not.  The Kevins should be taking a long hard look at this guy because he possesses a lot of qualities they desire.  First, he is a reported hands on recruiter with a pension for details.  He was able to land the second best recruiting class in the AAC after winning only two games his first season.  Second, he is a noted players coach who has had experience at all levels of football.  He is active in social media, and he was the offensive line coach for the Giants before taking the Temple position in 2012.  Finally, he is a young coach who played in the Big 10, he has Under Armour ties (Temple is sponsored by Under Armour), he has placed Temple in the Top 25, and he came within two minutes of defeating a Top 10 Notre Dame team.  The negatives are there.  Temple's offensive yardage per game is worse than Maryland's.  Temple plays in a weaker conference, which could account for their defense being ranked 28th in the country.  And we recently saw the Temple Project Part 1 starring Al Golden come to an inglorious end in Miami.  Despite these shortcomings, Rhule should be getting daily calls from the Kevins about coming to College Park.

Matt Campbell (Toledo)

The second youngest FBS coach at 35 years old, Campbell has done an amazing job at Toledo in only a short period of time.  He is 33-13 in his three plus seasons at Toledo, and the Rockets are 7-0 this season on the backs of a relatively balanced team that is ranked 24th in total offense and 51st in total defense.  Some may point to Campbell's emphasis on discipline and manners as being a younger version of Randy Edsall, but the Kevins should at least throw a line in Campbell's direction.  Campbell is described as a relentless competitor who is straightforward in his personal approach with players and who knows the type of players he wants to recruit for each position.  Campbell developed his notion of an offensive system after studying Urban Meyer's spread offense as a graduate assistant at Bowling Green.  Maybe his old offensive coordinator at Bowling Green, Greg Studrawa, could convince him to finally leave the state of Ohio seeing is how Studrawa is the current offensive line coach at Maryland.  The Kevins should use that leverage, along with Toledo being outfitted by Under Armour, to gauge Campbell's interest in coming further east but buyer beware.  Campbell has vehemently expressed his desire to build the Toledo program further, and he has no coaching experience outside of the state of Ohio or outside of any conference bigger than the MAC.  He was turned off by his experience as a freshman at Pitt, so while his success in the MAC is tantalizing he may not be ready for the rigors of what the Kevins are expecting the new head coach to bring to Maryland.  Campbell is still an intriguing candidate and he should be worth a look.

Justin Fuente (Memphis)
Fuente may be more of a longshot for Maryland, but he definitely has the highest pedigree of the three.  The mastermind behind TCU's air raid offense and Andy Dalton's rise to stardom, he parlayed his success as TCU's offensive coordinator into a head coaching position for a 2-10 Memphis team.  Fuente has since turned Memphis into an 8-0 team that finds itself ranked 13th in the College Football Playoff Ranking and 6th in total offense in the country.  What is more impressive than these results is the way Fuente was able to accomplish these feats at a school that was a college football backwater located at the confluence of Big 10, Big 12, and SEC recruiting grounds.  Fuente weathered the storm in his first two seasons as the Tigers won only seven games while he tried to bring in the right personnel to run his air raid scheme.  His patience and determination paid off with a 10-3 record last season and a flawless campaign so far this season.  Some will point to the luck involved in Memphis's success this season as their star QB was mostly overlooked coming out of high school.  Others will say that Fuente's recruitment of Paxton Lynch is a sign of his ability to know what type of players will fit his offense.  Whatever it is, the Kevins will need to drive a hard bargain as South Carolina and Miami sound like more suitable places for a coach from Big 12 country that has not had any football experience north of Kentucky.  Fuente has also has seen what happens to coaches who like to run spread offenses in the Big 10 (see Rich Rodriguez at Michigan).  But Maryland's new Cole Field House renovations coupled with some financial convincing and Maryland being below the Mason-Dixon Line may get Fuente to give Maryland a second look. 

Honorable mention goes to Bowling Green's Dino Babers.  Maryland got a first hand look at what Babers can do as they were on the business end of Bowling Green's spread offense this season.  Babers is on the older side at 54, but if all else fails it may not be a huge loss to take a flyer on an older guy who is a prodigy of Art Briles.  And yes, if Chip Kelly can be got we should not blink at the opportunity to get him.  But looking at the three candidates listed above, I think Rhule would be the number one option even over Chip Kelly.  A seasoned veteran from Pennsylvania who is a players coach and has a passion to win and recruit.  My vote is for Rhule if we can get him.