Thursday, February 22, 2018

The Chronicles of Redskins Quarterbacks Part 2: Jeff George

Jeff George (00-01) “Anne Boleyn”
7 starts (1-6)
Completion % = 57.6% (136/236)
1557 yrds-7TD-9INT-71.6-18 sck-0 gwd

The hotter pick.  Dan Snyder’s first attempt at sabotaging a sure thing for something he felt to be more exotic and exciting.  If Brad Johnson was Catherine of Aragon, Jeff George was a perfect Anne Boelyn.  Jeff George came to Washington on the heels of a season where he replaced Randall Cunningham in Minnesota.  You know.  The guy the Vikings decided to keep over Brad Johnson not a season earlier.  George would replace Cunningham during the 1999 season and lead Minnesota to a second round playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl XXXIV champion Rams.  That was good enough for Snyder to sign him to a four year $14 million contract to be Brad Johnson’s back up, and in essence creating the first quarterback controversy of the Dan Snyder era.

George had been the sexy gunslinger Snyder wanted to put butts in the seats.  Brad Johnson may have won and brought relevance back to the Washington franchise, but he was too ho-hum in his approach for Snyder’s liking.  Snyder’s prayers were answered 9 games into the 2000 season when the injury bug finally caught up to Johnson, and Norv Turner was forced to start Dan Snyder’s hand-picked quarterback.  George did not play as well as Snyder would have hoped, except for an improbable Monday Night win over the defending Super Bowl Champion St. Louis Rams.  That would turn out to be George’s only win as a Redskins starter, and George would go 1-4 in the 2000 season with neither Johnson nor George looking particularly good and the Redskins finishing 8-8 after being 7-4 at one point in the season.

Exit Brad Johnson.  Enter Marty Schottenheimer.  The next season saw the Redskins open up 0-2 with George at the helm, and Marty Ball had seen enough.  Two games into the season and Jeff George was released from the team that had signed him only one year earlier.  George would fade into obscurity after his tenure with the Redskins, but he will be remembered for his incredible win over the Rams.  His only win with the Washington Redskins.

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

The Chronicles of Redskins Quarterbacks Part 1: Brad Johnson

With the imminent departure of Kirk Cousins coming on March 14, I thought it best to celebrate by revisiting all the Redskins Quarterbacks who have started at least one game in the Dan Snyder era.  These are old posts but there will need to be two new additions to the end of this list, culminating in the ultimate release of Kirk Cousins into the open free agent market.  But it is always good to know where we came from, so let's begin with the first quarterback in the Dan Snyder era and work our way through them all in order to gain perspective about what is to come for this franchise under Alex Smith.



Brad Johnson (99-00) “The First Wife aka Catherine of Aragon”
27 starts (17-10)
Completion % = 61.5% (544/884)
6510 yrds - 35TD - 28INT - 84.0 - 48sck - 8 game winning drives


That’s right.  I’m classing up this blog by giving all of you a history lesson that involves something other than sports.  Just as Catherine of Aragon was Henry VIII’s first wife, Brad Johnson was Daniel Snyder’s first quarterback, and he arguably had the most success out of any quarterback under Dan Snyder’s tenure.  Acquired from the Vikings after the 1998 season for a first and third round pick in the 1999 draft, and a second round pick in the 2000 draft, Brad Johnson became the original savior of the Redskin franchise under Dan Snyder.  Coming from a career that started at Florida State (where he barely started); to a ninth round selection by the Vikings in the 1992 draft that ultimately led to Brad starting for the London Monarchs of the World Football League in 1995 (I can’t believe the Rhein Fire passed on him), to coming back to the Vikings only to be banished from that snowy paradise in favor of Randall Cunningham in 1998; it was safe to say that Brad Johnson had something to prove when he came to the Redskins via trade in 1999.  And prove himself he did. 

Brad set a franchise record for completions in the 1999 season (316) and he threw for 4,005 yards which ranked second best for the franchise at the time.  He also led the Redskins to their first NFC East title since they won the Super Bowl in the 1991-1992 season.  Hindsight makes that division title that much sweeter considering it took 15 years to win the next one, but at the time it was the first NFC East title in eight years and they had Brad Johnson to thank for it.  Johnson would lead the Redskins to their best record since winning the Super Bowl in 1992, and he also led them to within a botched field goal snap of the NFC Championship Game.  But Brad wasn’t sexy enough for Dan Snyder.  Just like a Hollywood mogul who hits it big, Snyder dumped his reliable wife for a girlfriend who is hotter but more of a headache.  That girlfriend was Jeff George.  Johnson would end up starting only 11 games in the 2000 season, and he would be replaced outright by George by the end of the season.

Johnson would eventually leave the Redskins after the 2000 season, and we all know what happened from there.  Three years later Johnson hoisted the Lombardi Trophy for the John Gruden led Tampa Bay Buccaneers against another former Redskins quarterback in Rich Gannon.  Johnson goes down as having the third most wins of any quarterback under Dan Snyder (17), he was one of only three Snyder quarterbacks to start all 16 games in a season, and he led the Redskins to one of the two playoff wins and division titles the franchise has had while Dan Snyder has owned the team.  Brad Johnson deserved better than what he received in Washington, and his Super Bowl ring should be a constant reminder to Dan Snyder about his ability to evaluate football talent.

Coincidental Side Notes:  The Redskins acquired Brad Johnson in 1999 because Trent Green left Washington to start for St. Louis.  Green would suffer a season ending knee injury that year, which paved the way for Kurt Warner to lead the “Greatest Show in Turf” to two Super Bowls in three years.  Brad Johnson was also coveted by the Ravens in 1998, but they were unwilling to give up an extra second round pick for him.  Instead, the Ravens signed former Rams quarterback Tony Banks who was ousted from St. Louis in favor of Trent Green, and who would eventually start for the Redskins two years later because Trent Dilfer led the Ravens to a Super Bowl Championship after replacing Tony Banks 2 games into the Ravens’s 2000-2001 season. Remember that the Redskins passed on Dilfer in the 1994 draft in favor of Heath Shuler.  Dilfer was drafted two spots later by Tampa Bay, who would win their only Super Bowl with Brad Johnson after he left the Redskins following the 2000-2001 season. The Circle of Life.

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Carson Wentz Has Usurped the Throne Left by RG3

Five years ago the Redskins had it all.  They had mortgaged their future for the player they thought would lead them for the next decade both on and off the field.  And for that one magical 2012-2013 season, their gamble had seemingly paid off.  Robert Griffin III was as electrifying as they come in his rookie season, and the Redskins fan base was thrown into an intense state of euphoria that made Robert Griffin's jersey the highest selling jersey that season.  Not only was Griffin the highest selling jersey of the 2012-2013 season, his No. 10 jersey sold more units in that fiscal year than any other player had in any one year span in NFL history.  The ripple effects of those jersey sales within the Redskins fan base are still felt to this day, as the four fans at UVA College Basketball Gameday proved as they wore RG3 jerseys on national television only one week ago (I cannot find a picture of this, but trust me, there were four guys all wearing RG3 jerseys at UVA Gameday last week).  But, alas, those jersey sales could not translate into sustained success and Griffin left unceremoniously for Cleveland two year later.  Since that 2012 season, the Redskins fan base has devolved into an apathetic mess that reached its nadir during this past season.  The best quarterback the franchise has ever seen is being allowed to leave this off season, with no real marketable players left that can galvanize the fan base.  That void has been filled by another who has won the hearts of the DMV fan base's wallets.

Guess who had the highest selling jersey on NFL.com in DC, Maryland, and Virginia over this past season?  Not Kirk Cousins.  Not Ryan Kerrigan.  Not Josh Norman.  Not Joe Flacco or Mike Wallace.  Nope.  If you attended the University of Maryland you would know that the Eagles fan base has blighted the landscape of the DMV to the point where Carson Wentz can have the highest selling jersey for all of the Mid-Atlantic states in 2017.  And why not?  He did all the leg work to lead the Eagles to their first Super Bowl victory while capitalizing on the zeitgeist surrounding his particular city the way RG3 did five year ago.  In 2012 Griffin came to "Chocolate City" as the young black savior of a franchise in desperate need of a player that would make the Redskins relevant on a national stage.  For those DC fans who were indifferent to his race and stature, they were enamored with his ability to win, which propelled Griffin to the highest levels of marketability for that 2012 season.  Now look at Carson Wentz.  Wentz had that white working class vibe about him from Day 1 that just connected with a majority of the Eagles fan base, and for those who were unimpressed by his whiteness and North Dakota upbringing, they were enamored with his ability to be young and win football games.  It is the consistent winning that awoke the dormant Eagles fans across the Eastern Seaboard for the past two seasons, and with the Eagles' Super Bowl Victory it has put Wentz into a position to dominate the Washington DC area for the foreseeable future.

Go ahead and say it Redskins Fans, "The Eagles won the Super Bowl, and the Redskins were so mediocre under Kirk Cousins, that it was inevitable that Wentz would have the highest selling jersey in the DMV".  Good theory.  But then how do you explain the fact that Mitchell Trubisky had the highest selling jersey in Illinois during the same time period? The Bears went 5-11 this year, which means that winning may not have a high correlation to jersey sales within a state.  To give a comparable example to the Redskins (who went 7-9 this past season), Larry Fitzgerald had the highest selling jersey in Arizona on an 8-8 Cardinals team that missed the playoffs, and Matt Stafford had the highest selling jersey in Michigan with the 9-7 Lions who also missed the playoffs.  It gets even worse.  According to the NFLPA Sales List for 2017, which takes into account sales for all officially licensed merchandise, there are no Redskins players in the Top 50 on that list and Carson Wentz ranks number four behind Dak, Zeke, and Brady.  And again it has nothing to do with winning if you take into account the fact that the Oakland Raiders went 6-10 this year and have five players on this list, including two in the Top 10 (Derek Carr at #9 and Marshawn Lynch at #10).  So what the hell is wrong with Redskins fans that they allow Eagles fans to outstrip them in merchandise sales in their own back yard?  It has to do with marketability and the hangover from RG3.

The Redskins have no marketable players that move the needle as much as Robert Griffin did five years ago, and the memory of that time still lingers in the minds of all Redskins fans.  The high and low of the Robert Griffin situation jaded an already depressed fan base into believing that any monetary faith in their beloved franchise will not be rewarded with any kind of sustained success, and the Redskins front office has not helped themselves in trying to ameliorate these feelings.  Their subsequent handling of Kirk Cousins has turned off an ever larger portion of the fan base to the point where Redskins Fans feel they have nothing, and no one, to cheer for.  They could have marketed Cousins as the next face of the franchise, but instead they marginalized him to the point where the Redskins find themselves without anyone who can galvanize the fan base.  In lieu of a marquis player who can be a beacon for this franchise, the Redskins have the ghost of RG3 haunting the minds of the fan base while Carson Wentz torments the Redskins both on and off the field.  Wentz's success is a reminder about what Robert Griffin could have been to this franchise.  Wentz's success also insures that Redskins fans will have to see an ocean of green jerseys at Fed Ex Field next Fall; Green jerseys that were bought by Eagles fans right here in the DMV because lord knows no one is going to buy an Alex Smith jersey any time soon.  That is, unless, he can win a Super Bowl and dethrone the new overlord of the DMV.  Carson Wentz.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

The Day of Reckoning for DC Sports GM's

The Kirk Cousins contract debacle over the last three years has once again highlighted the complete ineptitude of the Redskins front office to keep high level talent in DC, or get anything close to adequate compensation for his departure.  The flagship team for the Washington DC area is letting their best player at the most important position that they have had in over 40 years walk for almost nothing.  Cousins was a player that developed through this organization, and whatever the truth is about Kirk wanting to sign a long term contract with the Redskins, it is not a good look for the organization when a top player at his position over the last three years is let go.  The Redskins, though, are only the tip of the ice berg in DC when it comes to GM's making decisions about keeping their superstars in town.  The Wizards, Capitals, and Nationals will all have to face decisions in the very near future about whether or not to keep their franchise players here in Washington, and their decisions may have consequences that could undo the Pax Columbiana atmosphere those three teams have enjoyed in the regular season over the last decade.  Let's look at all three teams that will have major decisions to make in regards to their franchise players in the coming seasons, beginning with the Wizards.

The Wiz have most recently signed their Big Three of Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, and John Wall to long term contracts, but in the NBA no one is safe from a trade especially when there is drama in the locker room.  Marcin Gortat did not need a lot of arm twisting to state that the Wizards have been able to move the ball better on offense (in his opinion) without John Wall in the lineup.  In fact, the Wizards are 5-2 since Wall's injury that included a heart breaking loss against the Celtics on Thursday night.  This does not mean that Wall is going anywhere anytime soon, but if this type of fervor continues it could put a lot of pressure on Ernie Grunfeld to alleviate the situation in his own bumbling way.  Even if that does not happen, though, Beal and Porter will become UFA's in 2021.  While that date seems far off, the closer that date gets without any kind of playoff success from this team (i.e. Eastern Conference Finals appearances/championships) the more you may hear of Bradley Beal being moved since he doesn't have a no trade clause or trade kicker in his contract.  This is merely speculation, and the Wizards are the least likely team to break up the band in the near future, but the longer a team goes without success the more the trade rumors of superstars begin to surface.  Just ask the Capitals.

The Capitals futility in the post season came to a head this past spring, and with it came the most fervent push of the "Trade Alex Ovechkin" camp.  The notion of trading the greatest player the Capitals have ever had, and one of the greatest players in the game, seemed unfathomable when Ovechkin signed his mega deal in 2008.  But a decade has passed with Ovechkin winning no championships despite great regular season success, and Ovi realizing he only has three years remaining on his contract.  Couple that with Nick Backstrom and Braden Holtby becoming UFA's in only 2 years, and Brian MacLellan is going to have to face some tough decisions in the not-so-distant future.  Does he pull a Bruce Allen and keep the band together until it disintegrates and his superstars walk away for nothing, or does he try to make moves that will benefit the next iteration of this team post Ovechkin/Backstrom?  Prudence dictates that he at least entertains the latter, but more than likely he will choose to ride with Ovechkin as long as he can.  Keeping Ovechkin, though, will be tough if the Caps are unceremoniously eliminated from the playoffs again this season and the end of Ovechkin's contract looms on the visible part of the horizon.  It is hard to keep a superstar if they want a lot of money and do not produce championships.  Just ask the Nationals.

The Nationals are the team that has the most pressing issue facing it's GM.  Bryce Harper will become a UFA at the end of this season, and Mike Rizzo needs to weigh a lot of choices as it pertains to what to do with the most electrifying player in the DC market.  Does he pay him the GDP of some Third World Countries, or does he trade him away a la Giancarlo Stanton? There is always the patented Bruce Allen method of jerking him around and letting him walk for nothing, but Rizzo seems more saavy than that.  He realizes that Bryce Harper had the fifth highest selling jersey in all of Major League Baseball last season, and he moves merchandise with young kids here in the DC area.  Rizzo realizes that Harper sells tickets for the novice fans who want to see a superstar.  He realizes the Bryce has the ability to make a mega deal worth it through his production.  But the main question is, will it be worth it if the trophy case remains barren.  Recent history has proven that even with the firepower the Nats have been able to muster they still have fallen short of even playing for an NL Pennant. Trading Harper would be prudent if the Nationals know they are unwilling to go as high as Harper wants once negotiations begin, and they can get something in return for his departure.  Or Rizzo could bury his head in the sand and keep Harper knowing they are not going to pay him and make him resentful of this town and the way the Nationals do business.  But what GM would conduct himself in that manner?

Bruce Allen's handling of the Kirk Cousins contract situation has been given a little more perspective since Jimmy Garoppolo signed his contract.  Hindsight has made Allen look a little more prudent in being wary of giving Kirk $140 million, but the problem of letting Kirk walk for nothing still persists.  Luckily for Allen the other Washington GM's will have their chance to botch the handling of their respective superstars' expiring contracts here in Washington.  Ernie Grunfeld will need to decide if having three max players is worth all the childish bickering that may turn into real problems if no championships come.  Brian MacLellan will need to decide if it is worth keeping a legend in the face of persistent playoff futility.  And Mike Rizzo must decide whether or not it is worth breaking the bank for the face of his franchise.  Hanging in the balance is the relevance and relative winning stability these players have brought to the DC area.  These three GM's need to realize that if any one of the Wizards Big Three, Alex Ovechkin, or Bryce Harper are to leave that puts a damper on their ability to be perennial playoff teams, and in turn, sell tickets and merchandise.  The GM's need to keep up the winning atmosphere by getting value in return for these players' possible departure.  These decisions will be playing out over the next three years, and the three teams located outside of Ashburn, Virginia need to realize that their consistency, fortunes, and popularity within the DC Market for the next decade hinge on the handling of their superstars' expiring contracts.  Grunfeld, MacLellan, and Rizzo need to see these decisions for what they are, and make the moves that will secure assets that will help their team for the long term.  Or they could cover themselves in the warm blanket of denial and let these players walk for no compensation.  But what kind of GM would conduct himself in that manner?







Sunday, February 4, 2018

Michigan State, The XFL, and the Future of College Football

This was not supposed to happen again.  Penn State was an isolated incident involving a deified coach who had lost touch with reality.  Baylor was about an ambitious coach who built a winner from virtually nothing and wanted to keep a pristine front for his Christian donors.  These were major football programs and universities being implicated in the worst kinds of crimes and cover ups, but the overarching narrative was that these were unique situations perpetrated by individuals who were blinded by their own pride and avarice.  Then Michigan State happened and the story changed.  Now the narrative has turned from rogue opportunists trying to protect their own image to "this story probably happens to all major FBS programs, but you just don't hear about it".  Everyone has heard a variation of that comment related to what has been reported about the Michigan State Football program, and it is a depressing state of affairs.  In six years the response has gone from visceral outrage towards sexual assaults to latent acceptance that this is probably not an uncommon occurrence for college football programs.  Football players are intertwined with all three of these scandals, and with Vince McMahon's announcement that he is going to revive the XFL the NCAA needs to take a long hard look at the state of affairs in college football.  Michigan State may change the perception of college football, and the beneficiary could be a person who is as unscrupulous as the individuals being implicated in these scandals.  To understand this line of reasoning, the first thing that must be analyzed is the college experience as it pertains to college football.

(WARNING: This article is about how the Michigan State Football Scandal could lead to the marginalization of the NCAA and college football.  There is very little in the way of victims rights or advocating for justice for the Michigan State victims contained withing this article.  What happened at Michigan State is a travesty, and the victims deserve all the justice that the American Legal System can afford them, but there are tons of articles that state that.  I would like to pursue a different avenue of thought; one that focuses on the institutions that continue to allow this to happen and what could become of them if someone is willing to challenge them on a business level.  Please stop reading if you will be incensed by analysis that will put the Michigan State Scandal in the context of the business model of college football.  Thank you.)

Now, think about your first couple days of college.  Six months before, your line to get out of the house on a Friday/Saturday Night was "Mom, I'm going over to [best friend's house] to hang out and maybe watch a movie", or whatever BS line you handed your parents to go out and party.  But in college you didn't need a line.  For the first time in your life you had the freedom to do whatever you wanted without any direct parental oversight.  Can you remember what that felt like?  It was almost like a drug.  You had power for the first time and you were going to exercise it to the full extent.  Now take that state of euphoria and add it to the sense of entitlement of being on a stage that gives you national notoriety.  Everyone can recognize a football player on a major college campus, and they have that intrinsic sense of college independence multiplied by the entitlement that comes from playing a major sport on national television.  Those players are the money makers and they know it. Without them the university does not have as high of a prestige, and the boosters do not give as much money to the university.  They know the university will do anything to keep them happy and their image as spotless as can be so the money keeps rolling in, but they never see any of the money that is being made off of their talent.  Can you imagine what that feels like, or what that does to the psyche of an 18 year old kid?  I can imagine that it makes them feel more invincible, untouchable, and apathetic than the normal college student which may manifest itself in more nefarious ways i.e. sexual assaults.  This is the perceived state of college athletics, and if you think that these allegations of sexual assault would curtail this vicious cycle you would be wrong.

The players make college football profitable.  Yes, the ad revenue is what keeps them on TV, but it is the quality of programming the TV stations pay for that is driven by the quality of players that play in the league.  The problem is that the players get nothing tangible for their services from the NCAA.  The NCAA is comprised of 129 different FBS schools divided up into 26 conferences, of which 10 are relevant, and 5 are the ones that matter.  The schools are left to their own devices to generate revenue and rein in adolescent physical specimens that are not getting any piece of the multi-billion dollar enterprise they are building.  The Michigan State Scandal indicates that those schools are doing a poor job of reining these kids in, and yet sexual assault scandals have seemed to not have any impact on the money making aspect of this venture.  The Penn State Scandal broke in 2011 and yet,  according to the US Department of Education, the Penn State Football Program's revenue ($81.1 million) and expenses ($39.1 million) were at an all time high in 2016.  The main part of the Baylor scandal broke in 2015-2016 and yet, according to the US Department of Education, the football program recorded it's highest yearly revenue ($43.2 million) and expenses ($33.3 million) by the end of the 2016 season.  This shows that sexual assault scandals have had very little impact on either school's bottom line, but with the Michigan State Scandal bringing forth the idea that "these types of stories probably happen to all FBS programs", it may open up the NCAA's business model to something more dangerous to them than bad press.  Economic competition.

The NCAA and it's schools have been able to run their operations with impunity as it pertains to economic competition because there has never been a legitimate contender with a viable selling point willing to take on that challenge.  Enter Vince McMahon's resurrection of the XFL amidst the Michigan State Football scandal.  McMahon has never been one to show scruples in his business practices, and he has a real opportunity to exploit the MSU Football scandal in order to make this new iteration of the XFL more viable.  It has been proposed that new XFL teams should be able to draft freshman and sophomores out of college in order to set itself apart from the NFL.  I propose going a step further and allowing XFL teams to sign players out of high school, and have McMahon cut WWE-like promos in order to frame it against the backdrop of failing college institutions.  He could go down the list of problems with the college business model listed above as his selling points.  The players are exploited and put into situations that give them a sense of entitlement.  This entitlement leads to deviant group think behavior that is inherent to the college football player experience because they are getting rewarded for their services through the celebrity they attain on campus.  This celebrity gives them a sense of they can do whatever they want because they have no material compensation to lose, and the school will protect them because the school does not want to lose the millions of dollars in revenue they are making off of the players' services.  All the while, the NCAA gets to sit back and save face by saying it will investigate this and that, while the players are vilified for being a product of the money making system that now has forsaken them.  Now, think of the alternative that the XFL could offer a player coming out of high school or their first year of college.

McMahon and the XFL could offer them a salary guilt free.  No paying under the table in order to keep up the facade of amateurism.  It is all legal, but it could also be conditional.  McMahon could have caveats about the player not having any sexual assault allegations on his record in order to sign, and he could have a zero tolerance policy for that kind of behavior once they do sign.  The larger the salary is; the more incentive the player has to fall in line, but there would be a tangible consequence to their behavior that is currently absent in college football.  In one fell swoop, McMahon could rally the support of the people who are outraged by the sexual assault scandals on college campuses to his cause, and pique the interest of those high school seniors and college freshman who are looking to get paid.  The XFL's selling point here could be, "Do you want your son going to a place where he will be thrust into a situation that will put him in an entitled elite section of the population for no compensation, OR do you want him to learn what it is like to make an honest living to help his family and learn how to operate within a setting of more mature individuals?".  That could be hard to turn down, especially if there is a six figure contract behind it, and it could spell the beginning of the end for the outright hegemony the NCAA has over high school football's talent pool.

If the XFL chooses to go down this path it seems ironic that the people on the side of justice for sexual assault victims would need to hitch their wagon to someone like Vince McMahon, but it is the only way.  The scandals alone have done nothing towards harming the money making machines at Penn State and Baylor, and more than likely the same will happen at Michigan State.  But that is because there has never been a challenge to the schools' business model of acquiring the best high school talent to their institutions to force them to make any real change other than removing the parties involved.  If the XFL decides to recruit younger players they will have takers, and it will be especially potent if McMahon can frame it in the sense of preventing sexual assault through contractual obligations.  The more the XFL can exploit the shortcomings of their competitors that have disillusioned parts of the fan base, the more interest they can draw from the fans, from prospective players, and from sponsors.  The Michigan State Football Scandal has perpetuated a huge shortcoming for sending a high school football player to any college campus.  If the XFL can leverage that into stealing those players away from an NCAA that needs them to keep their money making machine going, it may just lead to to the reform within college football that people are looking for, and they would have Vince McMahon to thank for it.

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Repercussions of the Alex Smith Trade

Do you remember the scene in Dumb and Dumber when Lloyd trades the dog truck for the mini scooter and sees Harry for the first time, and Harry has one of the greatest quote of the movie:

"Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this.............AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!

I think that is what Bruce Allen is thinking right now in his head, and it is possibly what Dan Snyder said to him when he heard that Allen had executed this trade.  Allen is being excoriated on Twitter at the moment and for good reason.  He gave up a 29 year old Kirk Cousins for four years of a now 33 year old Alex Smith at a cost of $94 million with $71 million guaranteed, our 2018 3rd Round Pick,  and one of the best nickel corners of last season in Kendall Fuller.  This is bad trade in that Allen gave up too much for an aging quarterback, and it torpedoed any leverage you had in moving Kirk Cousins.  Smith still had one year left on his contract.  Who was banging down the Chiefs door to get him, and if they were, why were we willing to give up Fuller for him?  Allen could have played the game a little bit more to see what the Redskins could have received for Cousins. In my mind, anything over the compensatory pick we are going to get when Cousins walks would have been sufficient.  And there in lies the problem.  Trade value. 

More than likely, any free agent quarterback would have cost just as much as Smith, and any rookie would be a step down in experience and maybe ability.  The thing about this trade is we have a net loss of value in losing Fuller and our 3rd Rounder this year, and the repercussions of those losses will be felt in many ways this offseason.  Let us go through all of the repercussions of this trade in the short term piece by piece.

Repercussion #1: The Redskins added to their draft needs
The Redskins willfully added a cornerback to the list of position needs.  The coaching staff must be really higher on Quinton Dunbar and Fabian Moreau, but prudence dictates that they at least get someone to back them up in case they are not up Fuller's level at the nickel corner.  And while we are on the subject of cornerbacks.........

Repercussion #2:  The happiest person in Ashburn right now is Bashaud Breeland
Allen lost leverage in trading Kirk and in trying to resign Breeland.  Josh Norman is the only proven starting corner on the roster right now, and with the loss of Fuller, Bashaud Breeland can now command a high price from the Redskins who have nothing they can counter with if Breeland threatens to leave if he does not get more money.  Are you really comfortable going into the season with Quinton Dunbar as our #2 corner?  Breeland is very happy right now.

Repercussion #3: Don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB.  
The only thing more Redskins than unnecessarily trading for an aging quarterback is redundantly drafting one after they do so.  With all of their needs on the offensive and defensive line, don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB with one of their first three picks in the draft.  Logic would dictate that they, more than likely, will not do it in the first round (but when has logic ever entered into the Redskins' decision making) which brings us to the next repercussion:


Repercussion #4: The Green Bay Packers will go broke on Etsy sending Bruce Allen gifts.
Assume that Baker Mayfield and/or Josh Allen sit at 13 when the Redskins are up.  Teams now may be more unwilling to trade up because the Redskins now signed Smith, and it is easier to call the Redskins bluff that they will draft either of those quarterbacks.  Maybe the Redskins will, but there is less of the uncertainty needed to drive those negotiations than there was before.  And if they are there at 13 teams may be more willing to trade for the team who has the 14th pick. The Green Bay Packers.  Don't be surprised if the Bills trade one of their first round picks to Green Bay in order to move up and get one of these QB's before Arizona does at 15.  That could have been the Redskins, but that scenario is unlikely.  And while we are on the subject of trading, the one possible positive repercussion surrounds trade value

Repercussion #5: Bruce Allen's one-outer is Denver.
The only positive bargaining chip Allen has left is with Denver.  Numerous sources have linked Denver to Cousins over the past week.  With Allen trading for Smith, it is an almost certainty that Cousins will hit free agency in March.  Allen SHOULD be reminding the Broncos that the Jets have an offer sheet ready to go for Cousins that will outpace them in the short term.  Allen's only card left is to possibly pull off a deal with Denver before Cousins hits free agency, because the Broncos know that they cannot offer as much as the Jets.  If Allen can do this and get something comparable to what we gave up for Smith it will be a win, but do we believe that Allen has the bargaining acumen to pull this off?

These are the repercussions as I see them, and there are probably many more.  It is not a total loss in acquiring Alex Smith, but for the actual and theoretical price we paid for him is not worth his services in the short term. Smith has always played with a chip on his shoulder ever since he was benched for Colin Kaepernick, so maybe he uses that to great success here in Washington and we forget about Kendall Fuller and the contract.  And maybe Allen is playing a long game with the Broncos who want to prevent a bidding war for Cousins.  Logic would dictate, though, that the repercussions of this trade put the Redskins is a worse place than where they starter.  But when has logic ever entered the conversation regarding the Washington Redskins.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Maryland Basketball's Future Is On the Line This Week

The fate of the Maryland Men's Basketball Program will be on the line this week as they face two Top 10 opponents in succession.  The upcoming games against Michigan State and Purdue will give the NCAA Selection Committee a good idea about whether or not the Terps need to win out the rest of the season to have a chance at making their fourth straight NCAA appearance.  But these next two games will have more far reaching ramifications for the program as Mark Turgeon navigates his seventh season in College Park.  It is no secret that Turgeon has not delivered the wins against big time programs, but bad losses against these two teams could start to make the grass on the other side look just a little bit greener.  Maryland's short term, and long term future, hang in the balance of these two games, and it begins with the Terps NCAA Tournament resume.

For those of you keeping score at home, Maryland's overall resume to make the Tournament this year does not look good so far.  They have one win against the RPI Top 50 (Butler who is 31) and their next best RPI win has been against the mighty Bucknell Bison who are ranked 100.  Maryland itself is only ranked 53 in the RPI, but these next two games could give them the quality win they need to bolster their resume and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Maryland could pull off an upset.  Maryland was able to keep pace with Purdue, albeit at home and with Justin Jackson, and they traded punches with Michigan State without Jackson for the first fifteen minutes until Maryland went cold and Michigan State couldn't miss.  One inspiring Turgeon speech could will the Terps past one of these teams over the next few days, and it is Mark Turgeon's coaching prowess that will be on trial over the next two games as it pertains to his tenure at the University of Maryland.

Turgeon's coaching acumen has been called into question over the past two weeks, which has exacerbated the call for his removal due to his lackluster performance against big time programs in big time situations.  Turgeon has been chided for Maryland's performance at the end of the game against Indiana, and for not defending the inbound pass against Michigan when the Terps were up one point with 3.2 seconds left.  The Michigan loss especially hurts because Turgeon's record against Top 25 teams has not been so glamorous.  If the Terps had beaten Michigan it would have been the first time Turgeon had beaten a Top 25 team in a true road game since he came to College Park.  In fact, Turgeon's only win against a Top 25 team on the road (not counting neutral site games) was against LSU on November 25, 2006. Couple that with the fact that Turgeon is 7-27 against Top 25 teams since he took the Maryland job, and there is reason to be concerned about the direction of the program in College Park outside of the worry that the Terps may miss the Tournament for the first time in four years.  Terps fans, though, need to gain some perspective and look at another Maryland Legend's rise to the top in order to evaluate Turgeon's tenure.

Turgeon is in his seventh year at the University of Maryland, and yet by his seventh year, one Gary Williams was in a more precarious place than Turgeon.  Gary had only made two tournaments in his 6 previous years, and he had losing records in two out of his first three seasons (the last losing seasons Maryland Basketball has had).  In his sixth season, though, Joe Smith was named AP National Player of the Year and the Terps won the ACC Regular Season Championship.  Things were looking up for Maryland Basketball despite Joe Smith being drafted number 1 overall in 1995.  Gary would follow that season up with a first round exit from the Tournament in 1996 at the hands of Santa Clara, who was led at the time by a relatively unknown Steve Nash.  If the man Terps fans venerate as much as Gary Williams can have a regression, then surely Mark Turgeon can as well, and Turgeon may outpace Gary in certain areas that should have Terps fans pining to keep him around for the long term.  But it is the one area that Gary outpaces Turgeon that leaves the Maryland Nation insatitaed.

Mark Turgeon has extended his career at Maryland on the basis of recruiting hype, but he needs to take the next step if he is to stay in College Park.  Turgeon has been able to acquire three ESPN Top 20 recruiting classes over the past six years, and his current class is ranked 10th with one 5-Star recruit in Jalen Smith.  Gary was the opposite.  Gary was ridiculed for recruiting a guy named Joe Smith, but he would go on to beat a Jerry Stackhouse/Rasheed Wallace led, number 1 ranked, North Carolina squad with some guy named Joe Smith as his star player.  Turgeon has not been able to translate his recruiting talents into any success against top teams that Gary did, but that could change within the next week.  The games against Michigan State and Purdue could give Turgeon the signature win he needs to validate all of his recruiting success during his time at Maryland.  Two bad losses, i.e. losses of 20 points or more, may begin the talks of removing Turgeon from his coaching responsibilities.

Turgeon's tenure, more than likely, automatically extends through next season.  Justin Jackson's injury ensures his return for next season, and with the recruits coming in for next season Turgeon deserves at least one more year to prove himself.  But two more bad losses to Top 25 teams will dictate just how much time Turgeon will be given to right the ship in College Park.  Terps fans would be wise to realize, however, that after winning a Conference Championship with a National Player of the Year, Gary Williams was exited in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Turgeon has been able to attract high level recruits in a more competitive marketplace, and although his recruiting may not have translated into long term success, Turgeon deserves more time at Maryland for finally bringing a proven recruiter to College Park.  If he cannot deliver a win over the next two games, though, he may be looking for a new job sooner than he thinks.