The fate of the Maryland Men's Basketball Program will be on the line this week as they face two Top 10 opponents in succession. The upcoming games against Michigan State and Purdue will give the NCAA Selection Committee a good idea about whether or not the Terps need to win out the rest of the season to have a chance at making their fourth straight NCAA appearance. But these next two games will have more far reaching ramifications for the program as Mark Turgeon navigates his seventh season in College Park. It is no secret that Turgeon has not delivered the wins against big time programs, but bad losses against these two teams could start to make the grass on the other side look just a little bit greener. Maryland's short term, and long term future, hang in the balance of these two games, and it begins with the Terps NCAA Tournament resume.
For those of you keeping score at home, Maryland's overall resume to make the Tournament this year does not look good so far. They have one win against the RPI Top 50 (Butler who is 31) and their next best RPI win has been against the mighty Bucknell Bison who are ranked 100. Maryland itself is only ranked 53 in the RPI, but these next two games could give them the quality win they need to bolster their resume and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Maryland could pull off an upset. Maryland was able to keep pace with Purdue, albeit at home and with Justin Jackson, and they traded punches with Michigan State without Jackson for the first fifteen minutes until Maryland went cold and Michigan State couldn't miss. One inspiring Turgeon speech could will the Terps past one of these teams over the next few days, and it is Mark Turgeon's coaching prowess that will be on trial over the next two games as it pertains to his tenure at the University of Maryland.
Turgeon's coaching acumen has been called into question over the past two weeks, which has exacerbated the call for his removal due to his lackluster performance against big time programs in big time situations. Turgeon has been chided for Maryland's performance at the end of the game against Indiana, and for not defending the inbound pass against Michigan when the Terps were up one point with 3.2 seconds left. The Michigan loss especially hurts because Turgeon's record against Top 25 teams has not been so glamorous. If the Terps had beaten Michigan it would have been the first time Turgeon had beaten a Top 25 team in a true road game since he came to College Park. In fact, Turgeon's only win against a Top 25 team on the road (not counting neutral site games) was against LSU on November 25, 2006. Couple that with the fact that Turgeon is 7-27 against Top 25 teams since he took the Maryland job, and there is reason to be concerned about the direction of the program in College Park outside of the worry that the Terps may miss the Tournament for the first time in four years. Terps fans, though, need to gain some perspective and look at another Maryland Legend's rise to the top in order to evaluate Turgeon's tenure.
Turgeon is in his seventh year at the University of Maryland, and yet by his seventh year, one Gary Williams was in a more precarious place than Turgeon. Gary had only made two tournaments in his 6 previous years, and he had losing records in two out of his first three seasons (the last losing seasons Maryland Basketball has had). In his sixth season, though, Joe Smith was named AP National Player of the Year and the Terps won the ACC Regular Season Championship. Things were looking up for Maryland Basketball despite Joe Smith being drafted number 1 overall in 1995. Gary would follow that season up with a first round exit from the Tournament in 1996 at the hands of Santa Clara, who was led at the time by a relatively unknown Steve Nash. If the man Terps fans venerate as much as Gary Williams can have a regression, then surely Mark Turgeon can as well, and Turgeon may outpace Gary in certain areas that should have Terps fans pining to keep him around for the long term. But it is the one area that Gary outpaces Turgeon that leaves the Maryland Nation insatitaed.
Mark Turgeon has extended his career at Maryland on the basis of recruiting hype, but he needs to take the next step if he is to stay in College Park. Turgeon has been able to acquire three ESPN Top 20 recruiting classes over the past six years, and his current class is ranked 10th with one 5-Star recruit in Jalen Smith. Gary was the opposite. Gary was ridiculed for recruiting a guy named Joe Smith, but he would go on to beat a Jerry Stackhouse/Rasheed Wallace led, number 1 ranked, North Carolina squad with some guy named Joe Smith as his star player. Turgeon has not been able to translate his recruiting talents into any success against top teams that Gary did, but that could change within the next week. The games against Michigan State and Purdue could give Turgeon the signature win he needs to validate all of his recruiting success during his time at Maryland. Two bad losses, i.e. losses of 20 points or more, may begin the talks of removing Turgeon from his coaching responsibilities.
Turgeon's tenure, more than likely, automatically extends through next season. Justin Jackson's injury ensures his return for next season, and with the recruits coming in for next season Turgeon deserves at least one more year to prove himself. But two more bad losses to Top 25 teams will dictate just how much time Turgeon will be given to right the ship in College Park. Terps fans would be wise to realize, however, that after winning a Conference Championship with a National Player of the Year, Gary Williams was exited in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turgeon has been able to attract high level recruits in a more competitive marketplace, and although his recruiting may not have translated into long term success, Turgeon deserves more time at Maryland for finally bringing a proven recruiter to College Park. If he cannot deliver a win over the next two games, though, he may be looking for a new job sooner than he thinks.
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