Do you remember the scene in Dumb and Dumber when Lloyd trades the dog truck for the mini scooter and sees Harry for the first time, and Harry has one of the greatest quote of the movie:
"Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this.............AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!
I think that is what Bruce Allen is thinking right now in his head, and it is possibly what Dan Snyder said to him when he heard that Allen had executed this trade. Allen is being excoriated on Twitter at the moment and for good reason. He gave up a 29 year old Kirk Cousins for four years of a now 33 year old Alex Smith at a cost of $94 million with $71 million guaranteed, our 2018 3rd Round Pick, and one of the best nickel corners of last season in Kendall Fuller. This is bad trade in that Allen gave up too much for an aging quarterback, and it torpedoed any leverage you had in moving Kirk Cousins. Smith still had one year left on his contract. Who was banging down the Chiefs door to get him, and if they were, why were we willing to give up Fuller for him? Allen could have played the game a little bit more to see what the Redskins could have received for Cousins. In my mind, anything over the compensatory pick we are going to get when Cousins walks would have been sufficient. And there in lies the problem. Trade value.
More than likely, any free agent quarterback would have cost just as much as Smith, and any rookie would be a step down in experience and maybe ability. The thing about this trade is we have a net loss of value in losing Fuller and our 3rd Rounder this year, and the repercussions of those losses will be felt in many ways this offseason. Let us go through all of the repercussions of this trade in the short term piece by piece.
Repercussion #1: The Redskins added to their draft needs
The Redskins willfully added a cornerback to the list of position needs. The coaching staff must be really higher on Quinton Dunbar and Fabian Moreau, but prudence dictates that they at least get someone to back them up in case they are not up Fuller's level at the nickel corner. And while we are on the subject of cornerbacks.........
Repercussion #2: The happiest person in Ashburn right now is Bashaud Breeland
Allen lost leverage in trading Kirk and in trying to resign Breeland. Josh Norman is the only proven starting corner on the roster right now, and with the loss of Fuller, Bashaud Breeland can now command a high price from the Redskins who have nothing they can counter with if Breeland threatens to leave if he does not get more money. Are you really comfortable going into the season with Quinton Dunbar as our #2 corner? Breeland is very happy right now.
Repercussion #3: Don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB.
The only thing more Redskins than unnecessarily trading for an aging quarterback is redundantly drafting one after they do so. With all of their needs on the offensive and defensive line, don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB with one of their first three picks in the draft. Logic would dictate that they, more than likely, will not do it in the first round (but when has logic ever entered into the Redskins' decision making) which brings us to the next repercussion:
Repercussion #4: The Green Bay Packers will go broke on Etsy sending Bruce Allen gifts.
Assume that Baker Mayfield and/or Josh Allen sit at 13 when the Redskins are up. Teams now may be more unwilling to trade up because the Redskins now signed Smith, and it is easier to call the Redskins bluff that they will draft either of those quarterbacks. Maybe the Redskins will, but there is less of the uncertainty needed to drive those negotiations than there was before. And if they are there at 13 teams may be more willing to trade for the team who has the 14th pick. The Green Bay Packers. Don't be surprised if the Bills trade one of their first round picks to Green Bay in order to move up and get one of these QB's before Arizona does at 15. That could have been the Redskins, but that scenario is unlikely. And while we are on the subject of trading, the one possible positive repercussion surrounds trade value
Repercussion #5: Bruce Allen's one-outer is Denver.
The only positive bargaining chip Allen has left is with Denver. Numerous sources have linked Denver to Cousins over the past week. With Allen trading for Smith, it is an almost certainty that Cousins will hit free agency in March. Allen SHOULD be reminding the Broncos that the Jets have an offer sheet ready to go for Cousins that will outpace them in the short term. Allen's only card left is to possibly pull off a deal with Denver before Cousins hits free agency, because the Broncos know that they cannot offer as much as the Jets. If Allen can do this and get something comparable to what we gave up for Smith it will be a win, but do we believe that Allen has the bargaining acumen to pull this off?
These are the repercussions as I see them, and there are probably many more. It is not a total loss in acquiring Alex Smith, but for the actual and theoretical price we paid for him is not worth his services in the short term. Smith has always played with a chip on his shoulder ever since he was benched for Colin Kaepernick, so maybe he uses that to great success here in Washington and we forget about Kendall Fuller and the contract. And maybe Allen is playing a long game with the Broncos who want to prevent a bidding war for Cousins. Logic would dictate, though, that the repercussions of this trade put the Redskins is a worse place than where they starter. But when has logic ever entered the conversation regarding the Washington Redskins.
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