The Day of Reckoning for DC Sports GM's

The Kirk Cousins contract debacle over the last three years has once again highlighted the complete ineptitude of the Redskins front office to keep high level talent in DC, or get anything close to adequate compensation for his departure.  The flagship team for the Washington DC area is letting their best player at the most important position that they have had in over 40 years walk for almost nothing.  Cousins was a player that developed through this organization, and whatever the truth is about Kirk wanting to sign a long term contract with the Redskins, it is not a good look for the organization when a top player at his position over the last three years is let go.  The Redskins, though, are only the tip of the ice berg in DC when it comes to GM's making decisions about keeping their superstars in town.  The Wizards, Capitals, and Nationals will all have to face decisions in the very near future about whether or not to keep their franchise players here in Washington, and their decisions may have consequences that could undo the Pax Columbiana atmosphere those three teams have enjoyed in the regular season over the last decade.  Let's look at all three teams that will have major decisions to make in regards to their franchise players in the coming seasons, beginning with the Wizards.

The Wiz have most recently signed their Big Three of Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, and John Wall to long term contracts, but in the NBA no one is safe from a trade especially when there is drama in the locker room.  Marcin Gortat did not need a lot of arm twisting to state that the Wizards have been able to move the ball better on offense (in his opinion) without John Wall in the lineup.  In fact, the Wizards are 5-2 since Wall's injury that included a heart breaking loss against the Celtics on Thursday night.  This does not mean that Wall is going anywhere anytime soon, but if this type of fervor continues it could put a lot of pressure on Ernie Grunfeld to alleviate the situation in his own bumbling way.  Even if that does not happen, though, Beal and Porter will become UFA's in 2021.  While that date seems far off, the closer that date gets without any kind of playoff success from this team (i.e. Eastern Conference Finals appearances/championships) the more you may hear of Bradley Beal being moved since he doesn't have a no trade clause or trade kicker in his contract.  This is merely speculation, and the Wizards are the least likely team to break up the band in the near future, but the longer a team goes without success the more the trade rumors of superstars begin to surface.  Just ask the Capitals.

The Capitals futility in the post season came to a head this past spring, and with it came the most fervent push of the "Trade Alex Ovechkin" camp.  The notion of trading the greatest player the Capitals have ever had, and one of the greatest players in the game, seemed unfathomable when Ovechkin signed his mega deal in 2008.  But a decade has passed with Ovechkin winning no championships despite great regular season success, and Ovi realizing he only has three years remaining on his contract.  Couple that with Nick Backstrom and Braden Holtby becoming UFA's in only 2 years, and Brian MacLellan is going to have to face some tough decisions in the not-so-distant future.  Does he pull a Bruce Allen and keep the band together until it disintegrates and his superstars walk away for nothing, or does he try to make moves that will benefit the next iteration of this team post Ovechkin/Backstrom?  Prudence dictates that he at least entertains the latter, but more than likely he will choose to ride with Ovechkin as long as he can.  Keeping Ovechkin, though, will be tough if the Caps are unceremoniously eliminated from the playoffs again this season and the end of Ovechkin's contract looms on the visible part of the horizon.  It is hard to keep a superstar if they want a lot of money and do not produce championships.  Just ask the Nationals.

The Nationals are the team that has the most pressing issue facing it's GM.  Bryce Harper will become a UFA at the end of this season, and Mike Rizzo needs to weigh a lot of choices as it pertains to what to do with the most electrifying player in the DC market.  Does he pay him the GDP of some Third World Countries, or does he trade him away a la Giancarlo Stanton? There is always the patented Bruce Allen method of jerking him around and letting him walk for nothing, but Rizzo seems more saavy than that.  He realizes that Bryce Harper had the fifth highest selling jersey in all of Major League Baseball last season, and he moves merchandise with young kids here in the DC area.  Rizzo realizes that Harper sells tickets for the novice fans who want to see a superstar.  He realizes the Bryce has the ability to make a mega deal worth it through his production.  But the main question is, will it be worth it if the trophy case remains barren.  Recent history has proven that even with the firepower the Nats have been able to muster they still have fallen short of even playing for an NL Pennant. Trading Harper would be prudent if the Nationals know they are unwilling to go as high as Harper wants once negotiations begin, and they can get something in return for his departure.  Or Rizzo could bury his head in the sand and keep Harper knowing they are not going to pay him and make him resentful of this town and the way the Nationals do business.  But what GM would conduct himself in that manner?

Bruce Allen's handling of the Kirk Cousins contract situation has been given a little more perspective since Jimmy Garoppolo signed his contract.  Hindsight has made Allen look a little more prudent in being wary of giving Kirk $140 million, but the problem of letting Kirk walk for nothing still persists.  Luckily for Allen the other Washington GM's will have their chance to botch the handling of their respective superstars' expiring contracts here in Washington.  Ernie Grunfeld will need to decide if having three max players is worth all the childish bickering that may turn into real problems if no championships come.  Brian MacLellan will need to decide if it is worth keeping a legend in the face of persistent playoff futility.  And Mike Rizzo must decide whether or not it is worth breaking the bank for the face of his franchise.  Hanging in the balance is the relevance and relative winning stability these players have brought to the DC area.  These three GM's need to realize that if any one of the Wizards Big Three, Alex Ovechkin, or Bryce Harper are to leave that puts a damper on their ability to be perennial playoff teams, and in turn, sell tickets and merchandise.  The GM's need to keep up the winning atmosphere by getting value in return for these players' possible departure.  These decisions will be playing out over the next three years, and the three teams located outside of Ashburn, Virginia need to realize that their consistency, fortunes, and popularity within the DC Market for the next decade hinge on the handling of their superstars' expiring contracts.  Grunfeld, MacLellan, and Rizzo need to see these decisions for what they are, and make the moves that will secure assets that will help their team for the long term.  Or they could cover themselves in the warm blanket of denial and let these players walk for no compensation.  But what kind of GM would conduct himself in that manner?

The Pathology of DC Sports

Last Thursday Night the Nationals found a new way to rip the heart out of all of DC Sports fans.  Once again we had to watch one of our favored teams lose at home in a deciding series game that continued the playoff misery of all DC Sports teams since 1998.  For those of you living in a hole over the past 18 months, that is the last time any professional DC Sports team (The Capitals) made it to a Conference Final.  That point has been particularly sensitive recently, as the Nationals loss marks the third time in less than four months that a DC sports team has dropped a deciding series game that would have put them into their respective Conference Final.  That is what makes this situation so hard to comprehend.  No American Sports City with three or more "Big 4" sports teams has ever seen futility like this before, and it should not be classified simply as just another sports "curse".  This goes far beyond what classic sports terminology can explain, and it should be dissected in order to come up with a title fitting for the uniqueness of the situation.  Lets start by addressing the scale of this phenomenon.

This "curse" (I'll use that term for now) is unique in that it has impacted all four teams that call Washington DC their home.  All other sports curses have been relegated to specific teams within a given city.  While Red Sox fans suffered under the Curse of the Bambino the Celtics won 16 NBA titles over three decades.  The Cubs wallowed in misery for over a century, but during that time the Blackhawks won six Stanley Cups, The Bears won a Super Bowl, and they were witness to Michael Jordan's greatness.  Even Dallas fans have had the 1999 Stars and the 2011 Mavericks to satiate their championship appetite as the Cowboys continue to disappoint them.  There has been no DC team to pick up the slack over the past 20 years, and it is the nature of that slack that makes this situation even more incomprehensible.

As all of DC fandom is aware, all of this lament is to see one of our teams PLAY in a Conference Final.  Not WIN a Conference Final, just PLAY in a Conference Final.  All of the above mentioned cities never had a 20 year drought where all of their teams failed to make a Conference Final.  Even Cleveland, the gold standard for sports sucking cities, never had all of their teams fail to make it to a Conference Final in a 20 year span during their famed championship drought.  Think about that.  DC has now eclipsed Cleveland in sports futility.  What makes it frustrating is that the DC franchises seem to be doing everything right.  The Nationals and Capitals have one of the best regular season records in their respective sports since 2010.  There have been three number one overall picks (John Wall, Alex Ovechkin, and Bryce Harper) who have lived up to the hype, and they are one of the best players in their respective sports.  The Redskins finally have hit on a number of draft picks and free agents, and they seem to have found their elusive franchise quarterback.  What makes it even more frustrating is that DC fans have seen post season magic.  Jayson Werth's walk off home run in Game 4 against the Cardinals in 2012 is one of the greatest radio broadcasts DC fans have ever heard, and no DC fan has ever been more pumped up than when Joel Ward scored the game winning overtime goal in Game 7 to defeat the defending Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins.  What makes it even MORE frustrating is how close these teams have been to making a Conference Final.  All DC teams have had a combined thirteen chances to make a Conference Final since 1998, including the 2015 Capitals who were 1:41 away from eliminating the Rangers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal.  We all know what happened from there.  So this "curse" is attributable to all DC teams, and it has brought misery and frustration to a fan base the likes of which have never been seen before even in the worst of cases in sports history.  This calls for a new term to be coined.  One that should only be used in the most dire of circumstances, and one that could last even longer here in Washington DC given the status of current events.

The new term based on this evidence should be "plague".  It is not a "DC Sports Curse".  It is the "DC Sports Plague".  Think about it. Curses happen to one or a few individuals and only show up intermittently allowing some joy in their lives until the curse comes back.  Also curses are usually broken instantaneously by acquiring and applying the necessary objects or actions to break the spell.  Plagues are different.   Plagues affect all in their path and anyone who comes in contact with it, they linger for quite some time (The Buboinc Plague still exists to this day) with no one shot panacea, and all they cause is misery.  Doesn't this sound like the DC Sports situation?  We have drafted the right players.  We have put together the right teams.  We have suffered incomprehensible playoff defeats.  And still we suffer from this playoff affliction.  Just as the term "Bubonic Plague" had to be coined because it was new to Medieval Europe, so too should the term "Sports Plague" be coined to describe the current state of Washington DC Sports.  No major sports city has had to endure such a futile times with such seemingly superior teams, and this DC Sports Plague could cause massive casualties in the near future.

With the firing of Dusty Baker, the likelihood that Bryce Harper will not be a National by this time next year looks better and better unless the Lerner's offer him north of $400 million dollars. Following him out of National Airport may be Kirk Cousins, whose contract situation is as enigmatic as I'm sure the first black splotches on the skin of peasants were to those in the Fourteenth Century.  This means that two of the four major figures in DC Sports could leave town within the next year, and if John Wall and Alex Ovechkin fail to end this "DC Sports Plague" this season it may mean that they will never end their Conference Championship drought in a DC uniform.  If that happens we will be well into the next decade still waiting to have the right to cheer for our teams in a championship setting, and seeing high profile free agents in all sports come to this city and get infected with the "DC Sports Plague".

The Nats Need to End the DC Curse

It all started when John Wall hit the game winning shot against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals this past spring.  Wall's miraculous shot vaulted him into the upper echelon of DC playoff lore, but it unintentionally set off strife within the different fan bases within the DC Area.  There was an underlying resentment of the Wizards when John Wall prolonged their season and forced a Game 7 that could possibly end the DC Curse.  This resentment stemmed from the notion that John Wall's Wizards had not endured the playoff misery that some of the other DC teams had to earn the right to be the first DC professional sports team to make their conference final since 1998.  The Caps had met that threshold through their almost laughable playoff ineptitude in the first two rounds since 2008, especially with their propensity for blowing 3-1 series leads.  The Redskins fulfilled their duties by just plain sucking for the better part of the past two decades.  The Nationals have been the favorite to win the World Series at least twice over the past four years but fell short, including blowing that Game 5 lead against the Cardinals in 2012.  The Wizards had not experienced that kind of failed hype in the playoffs until this past spring, and all of DC sports fans were looking to one of the other three teams to break the DC Curse due to their collective impotence in the post season.  By sheer timing the Nationals are that team at the current moment.  A look into the deeper psyche of the DC Sports fan base shows that the Nats need to be the team that finally gets to a conference final to break the DC Curse for all teams in this area.

The argument for having the Nationals be the first DC team to reach their conference final since the 1998 Capitals is due the nature of baseball in the DC area.  There is the pride.  The original Washington Senators were one of the charter members of the fledgling American League in 1901.  The Senators also had Walter Johnson,who some argue is the greatest pitcher to ever play the game, and who holds one of the MLB records that some say will never be broken with his 110 career shutouts.  Johnson also has the moniker of being the first professional athlete in the US to have a high school named after him, and that high school still stands to this day in Bethesda, Maryland.  The Senators also brought the first professional championship to this area by winning the World Series in 1924.  It would be the only World Series the Senators would win, and just like every other DC Sports team after them, the Senators sucked outside of a few random successful seasons.  This was where the pride met the fall.

The Senators left Washington for the first time in 1960 to become the Minnesota Twins, but they would be replaced months later in 1961 by a new Senators Team that would move to Texas in 1971 to create the Texas Rangers. The MLB was twice fooled by the Washington Baseball Fans, but for the die hard Senators fans the sting of not having baseball in the DC area left them empty.  The Nationals success has revived a section of this cities populace that no other team could muster based on the history of baseball in Washington DC.  The fact that baseball can trace its' roots in this areas to the turn of the last century gives it a unique nostalgia that can rally older fans that had no other team to root for other than the Senators, and who are looking to remove the chip off of their shoulder about losing baseball twice before in their history.  But old time baseball fans cannot fill all the seats, and that Nationals have endeared themselves to the young fans through players and fan experience.

Bryce Harper is the biggest sports figure in the DC area as far as young fans under the age of 10 are concerned.  John Wall jersey sales pale in comparison to those of Bryce Harper, and along with Strasberg, Sherzer, Werth, and Trea Turner, the Nationals have built an All-Star lineup that fans of the younger variety can get jacked up for and support through merchandising sales.  Nationals Park has also been rife with ravenous fans ready to spend their day at the stadium watching these young players perform, but it would be nothing without the stadium experience.  Nat Park is easily accessible through public transportation, and that convenience has allowed some of the watering holes around the stadium to become desired destinations for 20-30 year olds with no families and disposable incomes.  A generation of DC Sports fans have witnessed the Nats draft and retain young talent and create a fun experience that is on par, or even better than, the competing sports franchises within this area.  The youth have been drawn to Nationals Park from a young age, and it is this mix of the old and new that makes the Nationals the team of destiny for right now.

I wrote a long time ago that the Nationals were like House Targaryen because they once exclusively ruled this area in terms of popularity, but were exiled and now they are looking to reclaim their throne.  Despite their 3-0 loss on Friday night to the Cubs, the Nationals need to be the team to break the DC Curse and make it to the NLCS.  They can bring old an new together through the history of baseball within the DC area, and through the player personnel/stadium moves they have made as an organization over the past decade.  Seeing the Nationals play for a Pennant would bring the old and young in this area together just as the Cubs did for Chicago one year ago.  The Nats have earned the right to represent this area on national scale in their respective sport, and it is time for them to be the ones to end this horrible curse and send this city into a collective frenzy.  The Nats are the one team that could bridge generations of fans if they were to break this horrible DC Curse, and in an event driven town like Washington DC, it would make them the biggest event in town.

John Wall Needed to Win More Than Anyone

Monday's Game 7 loss was another hard pill to swallow for the DC area.  Another ray of hope to end the nearly two decade drought of not making a Conference Final was dashed by another improbable performance by a fringe player.  Kelly Olynyk's 26 point performance will go right up there with Jaroslav Halak in the dark annals of DC Sports playoff misery.  One positive to come out of this playoff series, though, was the rise of John Wall as a DC icon.  Wall's game winning shot in Game 6, and his plea to the crowd on the scorer's table at the end of the game, had some anointing him as the premier sportsman in the DC area.  Wall's emotional outburst on the scorer's table was the personification of his passion for the city of Washington DC, and it was the type of moment that endears a player to the fan base.  The problem for Wall was that he did not deliver in Game 7.  A DC superstar player losing in a Game 7 is nothing new, but Wall and the Wizards squandered an opportunity to become the toast of the town.  They could have been the ones to break the streak, and for Wall that missed opportunity goes beyond just not making the Eastern Conference Finals.  Wall needed to win that game to be the unquestioned top dog in the DC sports market, but instead there will still be doubts in this area created by the accomplishments of other players, fans of other DC sports, and the way the NBA markets it's product.

There is nothing inherently special about John Wall's presence here in the DC area. The Wizards winning the Draft Lottery in 2010 to have the opportunity to pick Wall was surprising, but Wall is one of four number one overall picks in this market who have made an impact in their respective sports.  Alex Ovechkin has become the greatest goal scorer of his generation and led the Capitals to unprecedented popularity.  Bryce Harper is one of the premier hitters in baseball, and he and Stephen Strasburg have led the Nationals to become one of the best teams in baseball.  So John Wall being a number one overall pick who has delivered on his prospective talents is nothing new for this area.  John Wall needed to be the one to end the Conference Finals streak in order to separate himself from this pack, and also to win over DC fans who maybe brainwashed by NBA marketing.

The NBA is a sport that glorifies the elite.  Think about it in the terms of other sports.  How many Redskins fans wearing Kirk Cousins jerseys would say, "You know I'm a Redskins fan, but when Tom Brady (or other superstar QB) comes to town I gotta root for him"?  Not many because the NFL markets the team and each local fan base buys into that notion.  There is no Capitals fan who would root for Connor McDavid when the Oilers come to DC because 98% of the fan base (myself included) does not have the capacity to appreciate the finer points of hockey, Caps fans have had time to generate an intense loyalty to Ovechkin, and 10% of the fan base doesn't even know what city the Oilers play in.  The Nats/Orioles hedging still goes on, but few Nats fans nowadays have both a Bryce Harper jersey and a Mark Trumbo jersey. The NBA is different.  The NBA markets the elite players to everyone around the country, and in a transient area like DC it is hard for someone like John Wall to overcome that.  How many John Wall fans wear Jordans?  How many kids wear Golden State gear when that team is 3000 miles away?  How many casual Wizards fans will root for LeBron when he comes to Verizon Center?  The fact that you have to seriously ponder these questions means that John Wall faces the hardest road of any DC sports figure in winning over the fans.  The NBA markets it's top players to everyone around the country, and the Wizards have been so bad for so long that there is a significant portion of the area that gloms onto Curry and LeBron because they are winners.  Wall could have erased that in Game 7, but alas the DC fan base is left hoping yet again.

Emotionally, John Wall has won over this city but that sentiment is fleeting.  Winning is what this city wants, and Wall could have stripped the title of top DC sports figure with one win on Monday Night.  In an event driven town such as DC, think about the run Wall would have gotten going head-to-head with LeBron and God forbid possibly winning a few games.  Had that happened there would be no question about which individual sports figure is the biggest in DC.  Now, questions still remain and the doubt is still there.  Wall is tied at the top with people like Cousins, Harper, and Ovechkin, but he has the hardest road ahead of him and the longest time to wait to get another shot at winning.