Melo Brings Back More Than Just Talent

It was not but a few months ago that Melo Trimble made a risky decision to pull his name from the NBA draft and come back for his Junior season.  At this time last year it was almost a forgone conclusion that Melo would be gone after a predicted stellar Sophomore campaign, and while the Terps reached the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in over a decade Melo seemed to lose his luster in the second half of last year.  Trimble was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the Big Ten season, and rumors of a lingering injury were bandied around to try and make sense of this step back in performance from one of the most electrifying Freshman of 2015.  These inconsistencies may be the reason that Melo decided to come back and bring his stock up for this year's NBA Draft, but he also brings back a sense of leadership and loyalty to the program that mirrors another flashy point guard who decided to come back for one more year to raise his draft status.

Greivis Vasquez was another person who was set to leave for the NBA after his Junior season.  He had the moxy and attitude to play in the NBA, but his erratic style left something to be desired in an over saturated point guard market in the 2009 NBA Draft.  Vasquez made the decision to come back to College Park in May of 2009 to hone his skills and in the process he led the Terps to one of their best seasons since 2000.  The 2009-2010 season saw the Terps win a share of the ACC regular season title by beating the #4 Duke Blue Devils in the last home game of the season at the XFinity Center, and they came within 6.6 seconds of making it to the Sweet Sixteen.  And remember that Michigan State went on to the Final Four that season because Kansas had been upset by Northern Iowa in the Second Round and #2 Ohio State lost to Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen meaning that ipso facto the Terps would have made it to the Final Four that year.  For Vasquez personally, his Senior season could not have ended any better.  He was the 2010 ACC Player of the Year, a Second Team All-American, and he was drafted 28th overall in the 2010 Draft.  Melo's return may mirror Vasquez's 2010 season in that the Terps could be poised for a run given what Melo brings back outside of his talent, and what Marlyand has done to compliment Melo's strengths.

Melo Trimble's abilities were needed to have this season be a success.  That has been evident over the first 14 games.  What also has been evident over the first 14 games is a resiliency and willingness to win that has not been present the past two seasons.  The Terps have been able to erase four nine point second half deficits this season, and without Melo's leadership those comebacks may not have occurred.  Melo must also know that he cannot go at it alone, and the he needs to rely on the pieces that Mark Turgeon has put in place this season to help him and the Terps become a better team.  Turgeon must have seen that when Melo was not in the game last year the team looked lost on offense, and more often than not they resorted to jacking up threes or driving down the lane into double teams.  Enter Anthony Cowan, who has shown that he can be that ball handler/distributer the Terps need when Melo needs a break.  The Terps now do not look as inept on offense without Melo in the game, and that was showcased in their rout of Illinois on Tuesday night.  Cowan, along with guys like Kevin Huerter, Jaylen Brantley, Dion Wiley, Justin Jackson, and L.G. Gill, give the Terps some much needed depth and intangibles that at times may have been lacking last season.  But Melo Trimble is the glue.  His talent is what the Terps needed to have back to give this team a chance, but the dedication, experience, and leadership he brings back could have the Terps surprising some people come March.  And maybe, just maybe, he can create enough surprises this year to have his number resting at XFinity Center right next to that fiery point guard who also decided come back for one more year.

Redskins vs. Vikings: Back to the Future

Last Sunday's win over the Vikings gave Redskins fans a glorious glimpse of the franchise's past, present, and future all at one time.  It made us try and remember the last time we had a winning record after our ninth game of the season, which we then realized was at the tail end of the Horny 4 Zorny craze of 2008 and we started to have that all too familiar Redskins fan feeling of "this team will let us down like it always does".  But the win against the Vikings reminded us that the 2016 iteration of the Washington Redskins maybe the Marty McFly of 1985 that helps erase the memory of his family's past impotency through moxy and determination.

It has been stated that there is a different air about this team this season; a determination not seen in years past that has kept them fighting in close games where they had wilted in the past.  This comes as a surprise to a fan base whose Pavlovian response in the last two minutes of a close Redskins game is to settle in to their favorite chair and calmly wait for the meteor of disappointment to make its inevitable crash into the depths of our hearts.  But the attitude of this team has changed because the Redskins finally have players in leadership positions that have shown that determination in their career arcs through this league and the franchise.  Think about Will Compton and Chris Baker who had to work their way off the practice squad to become central leaders of this defense.  Pierre Garcon had to prove that he could emerge out of Reggie Wayne's shadow and produce on his own, and he has anchored this receiving corps for the last four years.  Rob Kelley won his starting role as an undrafted free agent this season and has sparked a renaissance in the Redskins running game.  DeSean Jackson has always had to overcome issues with his size to prove himself to teams that drafted Devin Thomas and Fred Davis over him in 2008 (We also let the Packers draft Jordy Nelson two picks after we took Devin Thomas).  We finally hit on a big name free agent in Josh Norman, who may have been a bad ass last year but he was not so hot being drafted in the 5th round out of Coastal Carolina in 2012.  We also hit on the wily veteran free agent who surprisingly has something left in the tank.  Vernon Davis has been rejuvenated playing in front of his hometown crowd after being left for dead in Denver last season.  And the ultimate leader of this team is a guy most everyone thought was a waste of a draft pick and would never see the light of day playing behind the franchise's golden boy, and some still believe we can go it without him next season after all he has done.  All of these players fill leadership positions and have fought to get where they are and still have something to prove.  This combination is why we have seen the Redskins continue to fight on both sides of the ball, regardless of what has transpired during the game.  It is a delicate balance that Scot McCloughan would be wise to keep intact as much as possible, and the win over the Vikings provided some telling portends about the future of this franchise.

The Vikings game provided two pieces of information about the Redskins future.  The first is that Kirk Cousins is going to be a franchise quarterback for us if we resign him.  He not only led the team on four scoring drives in the second half, but his two touchdown passes showed that he has the ability to throw people open in the red zone (the Jamison Crowder TD) and that he can throw an accurate deep ball (the Vernon Davis TD).  He is the leader of this team, and if we let him go we will be letting go of the invaluable intangibles that he brings to this team.  Kirk Cousins needs to be back next year.  Unfortunately for DeSean Jackson, this game proved that he may not be as valuable as we once thought.  He obviously makes the Redskins better, but how bad are they without him?  The Redskins moved the ball efficiently enough to show that Jackson's deep threat may be more of a myth than reality as long as the run game stays healthy.  This is not to say that his deep ball is not helpful, but the argument was that the threat of Jackson going deep opens up the passing game for everyone else.  The offense looked just fine against Minnesota without DeSean streaking down the field, so don't be surprised if the Redskins let him walk at the end of the season.

Onto the Packers on Sunday Night, where the Redskins determination will be put to the test in a thickening NFC playoff race.

We Know Kirk Cousins, and We Need Him to Stay

The Redskins bye week has been a cacophony of opinions about the future of Kirk Cousins and this franchise.  This dialogue was inevitable given that the franchise tag that Cousins has been carrying around this season makes for sensational conjecture and blogger fodder.  But the tone of this dialogue is what is baffling given Cousins performance as the unquestioned starter over the last 25 games.  This notion that we still don't know what to make of Cousins is asinine.  Even more asinine is the hypothetical notion that we could be in the same spot if Colt McCoy had been under center this season.  Both of these lines of thinking are dangerous given that Scot McCloughan will more than likely not be paying what Cousins and his agent are looking for this offseason, and there are a number of suitors who may very well break then bank to enlist the services of the Redskins signal caller.  All of this means that we will need to make Cousins feel wanted so much that he turns down $3-5 million more per year, and possibly $10-20 more in guaranteed money, to stay in Washington.  We must do this by putting away the notions that there is ambiguity in what kind of quarterback Cousins is and that we would be able to do the same thing without him.  The Redskins need Kirk Cousins because of what he has become over the last two seasons, and these accomplishments can be highlighted by debunking the two most prevalent arguments against Cousins getting a big contract here in Washington.

Argument 1: We Still Don't Know What Kind of Quarterback Kirk Cousins Is

The people who want to temper the talks of giving Cousins a large contract use this argument to obfuscate the true nature of what Cousins means to this team, and to use it to artificially manufacture dissent within HTTR nation about what Cousins should be paid this coming off season.  These people are the people who call Cousins an empty stat collector without looking at the most important stat of all.  Wins.  While the detractors look to dissect Cousins's stats to point out inconsistencies within his play they neglect that, for the first time since Brad Johnson, the Redskins have a winner at quarterback who has the temperament to perform at a high level in close games and lead meaningful drives late in the game.   Let's look at those drives over the past two seasons:

1) 10/4/15: Cousins leads a 15 play, 90 yard drive at the end of the 4th quarter to beat the Eagles
2) 10/11/15: Cousins goes 46 yards in :24 to set up a game tying field goal in Atlanta, and was a Ryan Grant slip away from leading the Redskins to score on their first possession in overtime
3) 10/25/15:  The infamous "You Like That" game.  Cousins led the biggest comeback in Redskins history, but you may have forgotten that the last touchdown was thrown to Jordan Reed that capped an 11 play, 80 yard drive in the last two minutes
4) 10/23/16: Cousins put his contract on the line as he ran in a 20 yard read option play to cap off a 9 play, 76 yard drive to take the lead.
5) 10/30/16: Cousins did all he could except kick the field goals himself to put the Redskins in position to win in a hard fought game.

These are not event counting the fact that last year he was plagued by drops against New England that may have allowed the Redskins to at least keep pace with the Patriots.  He put the redskins ahead in the third quarter of their playoff game against the Packers.  He led the Redskins into a position to go up by two scores against Dallas and threw an untimely interception.  He led the go ahead drive after halftime against the Ravens that proved to be the difference in the game.  All of this shows that Cousins has put the Redskins in a position to win more often than not, and aside from the Dallas game this season he has cleaned up the back breaking mistakes that plagued him early in his career.  This is who Kirk Cousins is.  He puts the team in a position to win.  Whatever way Cousins's stats are used to define him as a quarterback, Cousin has compiled a majority of those stats in games where the Redskins were in the thick of competition.  This leads into the second bogus argument against keeping Cousins.

Argument #2: Colt McCoy (or hypothetical replacement) could do what Cousins is doing

This statement is only bogus when looking at the long term prognostication.  In the short term it is hard to argue some of the facts.  McCoy has a limited arm, but can make short throws and is more athletic than he looks to keep defenses honest in read option.  McCoy may not have the leadership qualities that Cousins has, and Cousins can throw deep enough to keep the safeties at bay, but let's say that McCoy could be 4-3-1 right now as a starter and we let Cousins walk at the end of the season.  What then?  McCoy would only be a short term solution and we would need to look for a replacement.  We would probably want to bring in another QB in order to have Nate Sudfeld not be one hit away from being the starter, but the free agent class for 2017 looks bleak and hopefully  McCloughan is smart enough not to draft a quarterback again in 2017.  Then at the end of next season we are back at square one.  I can hear people saying, "We'll have the money to resign all of our offensive weapons if we go with McCoy next year", but do they think that Jackson and Garcon will stay after this season knowing that the next two years may be in rebuilding mode?  Both will be entering their 10th year as a pro, and they know that they may only have 3-4 good years left.  It would not be surprising if they decide to walk from uncertainty here in Washington if Cousins leaves, so McCoy would be without two huge weapons.  It is more than likely one leaves anyway if Cousins resigns to a large contract, but there is more incentive to stay if Cousins is under center.

All of this points to one conclusion.  Barring a complete meltdown from Cousins over the next eight games, the best option will be to resign Cousins to a long term contract.  Even though some have stated his average annual salary should be about $22.1 million, it is unlikely that McCloughan will go that high.  It may be that Cousins gets a higher amount of guaranteed money over a longer term contract in order to keep the per year cap hit low enough that we can resign some of our free agents, but Cousins is the only option to continue the success the Redskins have had over the last 25 games.  Cousins is a winner who has shown improvement over his time as a starter, and he has gained the respect of the players around him.  At no time in the Dan Snyder era have the Redskins had a quarterback who instilled so much confidence in his play over a longer period of time, and the Redskins need to show that they are committed to the players they have developed.  If not, get ready for the Brian Hoyer vs. Colt McCoy battle in training camp, and blog posts about how good DeSean Jackson looks in silver and black.

Redskins vs. Lions: Dueling Quarterbacks and Playoff Implications

When the Redskins roll onto Ford Field on Sunday, they will be facing two major factors that have arisen due to their ascendance to the upper echelon of the NFC.  The first is the Kirk Cousins situation.  Cousins has played about as well as he could over the Redskins current four game win streak, but he faces a nemesis (and part time Haley Joel Osment impersonator) that he needs to vanquish with stats this week in order to keep the Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 rolling on.  Since 2010 Matt Stafford is 7th in total passing yards, 8th in touchdowns, and first in speculative contracts that may break the bank.  Cousins has not really out dueled any quarterback of note this season, but he more than likely will get his opportunity this Sunday against Stafford and he needs to deliver if he wants that long term deal at the end of the season.

The second factor the Redskins will face can be summed up in the immortal words of Jim Mora. Yes, that is correct.  In all the euphoria of the Redskins four game win streak, it has not been said enough that the Redskins currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC.  They hold a one game lead over the Rams, Eagles, Giants, and the team that will be on the other side of the ball on Sunday.  This game holds early playoff implications, as a win would improve the Redskins's conference record while putting the Lions two games behind them in the Wild Card.  The Redskins already have one loss that will come back to haunt them later in the season in some way (the loss to Dallas), so there should be a hint of playoff atmosphere against a team the Redskins have not beaten since 2008.  It will not be an easy out as the Lions look to stay in the playoff race, but here are the key aspects of the game.

The Lions Giveth, and Lions Getteth:  The Lions give just as much as they get.  Their offense is dangerously efficient as they have eight less drives than the Redskins, but average almost two points more per game.  Those stats are good enough for a scoring percentage of 44.6%, which is 7th best in the league.  They also have the second best plays per drive (6.9) and third best yards per drive (37.4) in the league, which means that their offense can move the ball for long periods of time. The problem is that their defense allows other teams to do the same.  The Lions are giving up scores on 46.6% of opponents drives, which is second worst in the league, and allowing a league worst 39.3 yards per drive.  Couple this with the Lions defense only forcing four turnovers all season and giving up a league worst 73.7% completion percentage, and Kirk Cousins should be looking to have a field day.  The key will be to keep Matt Jones involved in the run game and utilize short passes to beat the Lions at their own game.  The Redskins are right behind the Lions in scoring percentage and yards per drive, so they should be looking to exploit a Lions defense that likes to keep teams on the field. The team that wins the offensive possession and efficiency battle will have the upper hand.  If the Lions are able to score on a majority of their drives and the Redskins cannot answer, the Redskins may be forced into a pass happy offense that could get them in trouble.  The Lions, though, may be more equipped to handle a high paced game with the addition of their new superstar.

Starscream Now Leads the Decepticons:  When Calvin Johnson left after last season, the Lions were staring at an offense whose second leading receiver was Theo Riddick.  Enter Marvin Jones, who has been born again hard after leaving AJ Green's shadow in Cincinnati to become the Starscream to Johnson's Megatron, and who is leading a deceptively formidable receiving core.  Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin showed last week that the Lions have claws outside of Jones that can tear up defenses, and the Redskins should take notice.  Jones and Tate can stretch the field with their speed, and Boldin is that guy who can kill defenses on possession routes and red zone plays.  The Josh Norman Wheel of Fortune will be spinning out of control this week, and it will be up to Joe Barry to use Norman in a prudent manner to keep the Lions's hot receiver in check.  It will also be up to Barry to continue this defensive renaissance because it will be where the Redskins win or lose this game.

Defensive Pressure:  The Redskins defense has pressure on it.  The offenses this week are evenly matched, and it will come down to which defense can get the other offense of the field by any means necessary.  Turnovers may be at a premium for the Redskins defense as the Lions have only turned the ball over five times this year, but the Lions have also allowed 15 sacks.  With the absence of Theo Riddick this week, Stafford has lost one of his safety valves that may force him into longer reads.  The Redskins front seven must continue to get pressure and not force Barry to commit corners and safeties to the QB pressure cause.  If that happens we may see either Tate or Jones go for some
big gains.  It is also interesting to note that the Lions have more rushing attempts than the Redskins this season but average 20 yards less per game. The Lions still gave 19 carries last week to a combination of Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, and with the Redskins still allowing 124 yards per game on the ground, look for the Lions to feed the ball to their running backs to keep short down and distances.  If the Redskins allow the Lions to have anything more than moderate success on the ground it could be a long day for the defense as they may find themselves on the field for long periods of time.  The Redskins's front seven needs to have a big day in run stoppage and pass rush in order to take the pressure off the secondary who will have their hands full.

All of this leads to another game where the Redskins's resiliency will be tested.  The Redskins reborn running game needs to be in full effect, and they should use all three backs to keep Detroit's defense on it's heels.  Look for a healthy amount of screen passes from the Redskins as well in order to keep the pass rush at bay.  Running backs against the Lions are averaging almost 7 receptions for 49 yards a game, so don't be surprised by a big receiving day for Thompson, Jones, and Kelley.  Look for Jones to have a more rounded stat line that may be less than 100 yards rushing, but over 100 yards total offense due to receiving yards.  This game will go back and forth, but the Redskins will be able to keep the ball for longer periods of time due the Lions not being able to get off the field.  The Lions will come out running in order to negate the pas rush and lull the Redskins defense into a stupor.  Cousins, though, will lead a potent attack that will have at least one passing touchdown of over 30 yards which will break the game open.  The opportunistic defense will be able to turn the Lions over at least once, and they will win the third down plays enough to give the ball back to the offense at critical times.  The Redskins prevail, and go into Cincinnati with a five game win streak.

Redskins win 30-24

Redskins vs. Ravens: The North Remembers

Our neighbors to the north remember. They remember the days of Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Anthony Wright, Chris Redman, Steve McNair (a 13-3 season followed by a plethora of injuries), Jeff Blake, Elvis Grbac, and Ranall Cunningham.  They remember what it is like to have a different starting quarterback almost every season, and have your Super Bowl winning quarterback not even be on the roster the next season.  That is why they gave so much money to Joe Flacco after he led them to the Super Bowl on an improbable statistical run through the playoffs, and it is why they can at least tolerate his 24-22 performance since his win in New Orleans four years ago.  Kirk Cousins is not at that level yet, but his season last year was statistically better than any season Flacco has had in his entire career.  Superior statistics are not exactly equivalent to a Lombardi Trophy (see Dan Marino), but Sunday's game against the Ravens will be a continuation of The Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 as Cousins must prove he can move the ball against a stingy defense on the road.  Cousins must make McCloughan and the Redskins front office remember what it was like to rest their laurels on the likes of John Beck, Rex Grossman, and an over the hill Mark Brunell.  It begins Sunday when the Redskins make the 45 minute drive up I-95 to face the Ravens.

Quantity vs. Quality: Quantity has a quality all it's own.  One team has lived by that mantra so far this season in having a superior number of rushing attempts, passing attempts, drives, and plays run.  Of course that team is the Ravens.  Maybe not what you were expecting, but the Ravens outpace the Redskins in all four of those categories having a higher volume of offensive output.  The problem lies in the results. The Redskins have amassed 140 more passing yards in 18 less attempts, 140 more total offensive yards in 40 less plays, and surprisingly only 5 less yards rushing on 17 less attempts.  Think about that.  As maligned as the Redskins running game has been this season, their yards per attempt (4.4) is almost a full yard better than the Ravens (3.7).  All of this means that the Redskins have been able to move the ball more efficiently than the Ravens, and they must continue to do so this weekend.  The Ravens's offense relies on running a lot of plays and getting a lot of chances to score, so forcing Flacco and the Ravens to make the most of their possessions is key.  The Redskins must continue the Matt Jones renaissance in order to keep the ball on their side, continue to score on every other possession, and continue to spread the ball around to numerous receivers in order to keep the Ravens defense off balance.  They will need to do this because the Ravens defense has quietly become one of the better defenses in the league, and the game may come down to which defensive style wins out.

Bending, Breaking, and the Forgotten Art of Forcing Punts: This game will be based more on which defense can impose it's will on the other team.  The Redskins may not have been able to stop people on a consistent basis, but they have been opportunistic.  They boast the second best turnover percentage (19.5%) in the league, and that was on full display last week against Cleveland.  They have relied on turnovers to stop drives, and they cannot pull a Carlos Rogers and drop sure interceptions or not be able to recover fumbles when they happen.  The Ravens, though, rely on turning people over through punts.  The Ravens defense has forced 26 punts this season, which is second best in the league.  They have done this by being third in the league in plays per drive (4.8) and first in the league in yards allowed per drive (21.3).  They have also forced less turnovers than the Redskins.  This means the Ravens have been able to actually stop people on defense and give the ball back to their offense.  The Ravens high volume offense relies on their defense limiting the possessions of the other team, so the Redskins must be able to sustain drives if they plan on having the bus ride home be a pleasant one.  The Redskins opportunistic offense relies on their defense giving them chances to score through forcing turnovers.  If the Redskins cannot force turnovers and have short drives it could be a long day for the Burgundy and Gold.  They must look to their MVP's so far this season to guide them through this game.

The MVP's Must Step Up: The Redskins MVP's must come to play this weekend.  It may not have dawned on anyone, but the past two weeks have seen Josh Norman have major pregame rhetorical spats with the likes of Odell Beckham and Terrelle Pryor. This week, though, Norman's nemesis is not as hot of a ticket on the heavyweight circuit.  Josh Norman vs. Mike Wallace does not move the needle as much, and maybe for the better.  Norman can now focus more on shutting down the Ravens receivers without the media trying to turn it into a soap opera type narrative.  The other MVP's have been just as well documented as Norman this season, sans the major media hype, and they must show up this weekend if the Redskins want a chance to win.  Dustin Hopkins must be on point with his kicks and convert his field goal attempts into points, and Tress Way must pin the Ravens deep when he gets the chance.

This game will be a litmus test to see where the Redskins are as a team.  The Ravens are a team with a winning record and a stingy defense that the Redskins must step up to in order to given themselves confidence that they can put themselves back atop the NFC East.  The Redskins offense must not get discouraged if they find themselves be stymied early by the Ravens defense, and having to watch the Redskins defense allow Terrance West to run all over them.  The Redskins must be committed to ball control and running Matt Jones in order to set up play action.  Watch for Flacco to take early chances deep in order to test the Redskins safeties, and look for Joe Barry to dial up all or nothing blitzes in order to try and rattle Flacco.  The Redskins will find themselves down again at the half, but their first drive of the second half goes for a score, they get a timely second half turnover, and Flacco and the Ravens squander a last minute drive.  Redskins are 3-2 going into a showdown with the Eagles next week.

Redskins Win 27-24

Redskins vs. Browns: The Revenant Part II

rev·e·nant

ˈrevəˌnäN,-nənt

noun

1. a person who has returned, especially supposedly from the dead.

If Alejandro Inarritu was ever thinking about making a sequel to The Revenant, he may want to consider bringing a film crew to FedEx Field on Sunday because when the Browns take the field the Redskins will be staring at two players who they thought had been left for dead.  The first needs no introduction.  Robert Griffin was supposed to have his shot at vengeance this weekend as the NFL scheduling gods bestowed their benevolence on Griffin by giving him a shot to vanquish Kirk Cousins in the very city that had forsaken him.  But Griffin did what he does best and got injured, which deprived him of a chance to stick it to the Redskins and deprived the DC Sports Media of a week long conjecture fest by asking such questions as "Did the Redskins Keep the Right QB?", "Is the Redskins Season Over if Griffin Wins", "If Griffin Wins, What Body Part Should Scot McCloughan Lose First?", "If Griffin Wins Is Jay Gruden a Retroactive Racist for Choosing Cousins Over Griffin?".  Alas, it was not meant to be, but the other revenant of the the Browns will most certainly have his name called on Sunday because of his play on the field.

Terrelle Pryor has been left for dead so many times it is hard to believe he is at the top of the Fantasy Football hype machine almost 6 years after it looked like he would go the way of Maurice Clarett.  After leaving Ohio State in 2011 because of the sports memorabilia selling scandal, Pryor's future in football was uncertain until the Raiders selected him in the Supplemental Draft in 2011.  In 2013 he would have a resurgence of his talents through the first three games, but he would miss a chance to play against RG3 and the Redskins in Week 4 of the 2013 season due to a concussion.  He would fall into obscurity again in 2014, but Pryor now finds himself in a new position playing on the same team as RG3 and coming off an historical display of offense that had Fantasy Football owners scrambling on the waiver wire this past week.  His chance to prove that last week was not an anomaly begins this week as he rides into FedEx Field as a specter from the past that must prove that the blood that runs through his veins is still warm.  It will be the Redskins' job to prove otherwise, but it may prove to be both hard and easy at the same time.  Here are the game notes:

Air Raid!!!!: The yards per completion stats on both sides of the ball, for both teams, indicate that we could see some explosive plays through the air.  The Redskins and Browns are averaging 12.8 and 13.0 yards per completion on offense (3rd and 2nd best in the league so far this season), and giving up 12.7 and 12.5 yards per completion on defense.  These stats are exacerbated by the fact that both secondaries are banged up and the Redskins have a propensity for giving up big plays.  Look for the Redskins to use a lot of spread formations and deep go routes with DeSean Jackson to try and exploit the Browns secondary.  If Pryor can get going, though, and Isaiah Crowell can continue to gain 4.7 yards every time he touches the ball it could be a long day for the defense.  The Browns will try to cause confusion in the Redskins defense by moving Pryor all over the field, and they will exploit the Redskins horrendous run defense by feeding Crowell the ball in order to open up big plays in play action and misdirection.  Don't be surprised if Ryan Kerrigan and the rest of the linebackers put on their best matador impression as they over pursue on misdirection and read option running plays that set up Cody Kessler to try and hit the deep ball.  But have no fear, the only way to stop a potent offense is through another potent offense.

The Red Zone Percentage Myth:  Maybe not a myth, but the rage about the Redskins has been their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone while overlooking the fact that they are scoring at a very high clip.  The Redskins are scoring on 51.6% of their drives (3rd best in the league), but they have only converted 21.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (2nd worst in the league).  That got me to thinking about which is more important to winning; red zone TD percentage or overall scoring percentage.  I tallied the wins and losses for the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in each category since the Redskins are in the top 10 in scoring percentage and the bottom 10 in red zone TD percentage.  Here is what I found:

Red Zone TD% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 13-17

Bottom 10 Teams: 17-14

Scoring% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 15-15

Bottom 10 Teams: 11-20

All of this means that we may want to tone down the vitriol we throw at Jay Gruden and Sean McVay about their inefficiencies in the red zone as far as it's significance to winning and losing.  The Redskins are next to last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone, yet the nine other teams that join them in the bottom ten of that list have a better combined record than the 10 teams with the best red zone percentage.  The Redskins find themselves in better company in the scoring percentage category where the Top 10 scoring percentage teams out pace the bottom 10 by a larger margin than their red zone percentage counterparts, and the top 10 scoring percentage teams even have a better overall record than the best red zone percentage teams. This shows that while the Redskins red zone play calling makes you think that Sean McVay rubs paint thinner on his clipboard before every game so he can huff the fumes while calling plays, it may be more important that the Redskins put themselves in position to score points on every other drive.  This scoring percentage will play a factor as the big plays may accrue, and drive efficiency becomes a factor.

If It Ain't Broke Don't Fix It: The one thing the Redskins have been able to do well all season is sustain drives on offense, and it will be of utmost importance to do this on Sunday.  If you add the Redskins average starting field position (32.5 yardline) to their average yardage gained per drive (39.6), it means that on average every Redskins drive should get within a 46 yard field goal range before it gets stopped.  Obviously that will not always happen, but the Browns are not very efficient having only scored on 24.3% of their drives and running 8 less plays on 6 more drives than the Redskins.  The Redskins should look to open up with long sustained drives that create any type of points to put pressure on the Browns to do the same.  If the Redskins find that they have a lead, they should look to start hitting home runs down the field to continue to pressure the Browns offense to make big plays.

The last time the Browns faced an offense as good as the Redskins the allowed the Eagles to score 29 points.  Look for the same thing to happen this week with the Redskins being able to hit their underneath routes early due to the Browns being wary of the deep ball.  Crowder, Garcon, and Reed will have big games in the beginning, and look for DeSean to open up after the first quarter.  The Browns will keep it close early, but a big pass play opens the game up for the Redskins that the Browns never recover from.  A close game, but Redskins fans should get a break from a last minute nail biter.

Redskins win 31-21

Redskins vs. Giants: Moments for Reflection

In this time of overemphasis on the dire state of affairs for the Redskins franchise, let us take a moment to reflect on the past.  It was 2007.  A confident Joe Gibbs led an aspiring Jason Campbell and an upstart Redskins team with a dubious 2-0 record to face a beleaguered 0-2 Giants at FedEx Field.  Eli Manning was entering his 3rd season as a starter, and he had shown regression from his rookie season to the point in 2007 where this game against the Redskins would make or break the season and put his future in New York in question.  Down 17-3 at halftime, things did not look good.  The Giants defense could not stop even the vanilla Gibbs 2.0 offense from putting up points on them and it seemed as if all was lost.  But lo and behold, Eli caught a spark, the Redskins do what they do best and squandered their lead in the fourth quarter, and the Giants found themselves on top 24-17 with 2:19 to go.  Jason Campbell would lead a valiant drive to the one yard line where Ladell Betts would be stopped twice in a row on runs up the middle and the Redskins turned the ball over on downs.  People would later point to that game as the turning point in the Giants season that took them from 0-2 to thwarting the Patriots perfect season in Super Bowl XLII.  Now the Redskins find themselves in a reversal of fortune almost ten years later as we reflect on the present.

The Redskins are now the 0-2 team with their future on the line as they go on the road to face a 2-0 Giants team with more statistical holes than some realize.  Redskins fans, though, have pointed to all kinds of self fulfilling prophecies as to why it is a no-brainer that the Giants will win this game:  

We have not beaten the Giants in the Meadowlands since 2009.  

We have only won there four times since 2000, and 2000 was the last time we won in East Rutherford in September.  

The Giants run defense will eat us alive.  

Josh Norman cannot cover everybody.  

Our defense cannot stop anybody.  

Kirk Cousins has become Fallout Boy again.

All of this neglects the fact that the Redskins' season has come down to one or two plays that have changed the course of their games so far.  And, as stated above, the Giants have some statistical holes that warrant further analysis and could be the key to a Redskins win.

Run the Ball, Run the Ball, Run the Ball:  No matter how futile it may seem, or how formidable the Giants front seven may be against the run, it is time for Sean McVay to look at his opponent and say running the ball is the key to this game.  You don't believe me?  Explain to me how the Giants defense has yet to force a turnover, they allow only 16 points per game, 9.1 yards per completion (best in the league), 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground (5th best in the league), and yet they allow the most plays per drive (7.1) out of any team in the league, and the second highest average time of possession per drive (3:18)?  The answer is running the ball.  Dallas ran 30 times for 101 yards, but they were also able to keep the down and distances manageable for Dak Prescott and keep their drives going.  The Saints only ran 13 times and had little offense to show for it.  If we can keep 3rd downs manageable (i.e. 6 yards or less) and commit to running the ball on first and second down, Cousins can do what he does best and throw intermediate to short routes to convert first downs. Speaking of throwing the ball:

A Possession Passing Clinic: Eli Manning is only 23rd in the league in pass attempts, yet he is first in completion percentage.  Eli's longest pass this season has only been 45 yards.  There is no doubt he will try and test Breeland and Phillips to see if they have the mettle to defend their receivers long, but it may not be an air it out type game.  If Manning can establish a short throwing game then it could open up the porous Redskins run defense even more.  With the Giants losing three fumbles last week and the Redskins defense being notorious for stripping the ball, look for the Giants to use the short passing game to set up the run and control the clock.  

Hunt With One Bullet at All Times:  A plea to the Redskins defense to seize opportunities when they come.  While Manning has thrown only one interception this year he has been sacked twice as much as Kirk Cousins on almost 20 less attempts.  Four sacks may not seem like a lot, but the Giants are not passing the ball as much so the sacks stand out more.  There may be opportunities for the Redskins to pressure Eli if he comes out throwing, and if the Redskins can stop the run it may provide more opportunities to sack Manning that they cannot give up.  The Redskins defense also missed recovering a crucial Ezekiel Elliot fumble last week that would have ended the Cowboys' go ahead drive.  This game will come down to possession, so any opportunity that the Redskins defense has to get off the field must not be squandered. 

A moment to reflect on the near future.  This game will come down to possession.  As omnipotent as the Giants defense has been made out to be, it is not without its faults especially when it comes to offenses holding on to the ball against them.  Likewise, the Redskins offense has been able to move the ball relatively well this year, but they need to capitalize on these drives with touchdowns.  I see a ball control battle where each team trades off long drives with defensive stops sprinkled in.  The Redskins get a touchdown off of a timely turnover, they sack Manning at least 3 times and hurry him all day, and they keep the Giants guessing by running and throwing out of a lot of three TE sets.

Redskins win 21-20