Redskins vs. Ravens: The North Remembers

Our neighbors to the north remember. They remember the days of Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Anthony Wright, Chris Redman, Steve McNair (a 13-3 season followed by a plethora of injuries), Jeff Blake, Elvis Grbac, and Ranall Cunningham.  They remember what it is like to have a different starting quarterback almost every season, and have your Super Bowl winning quarterback not even be on the roster the next season.  That is why they gave so much money to Joe Flacco after he led them to the Super Bowl on an improbable statistical run through the playoffs, and it is why they can at least tolerate his 24-22 performance since his win in New Orleans four years ago.  Kirk Cousins is not at that level yet, but his season last year was statistically better than any season Flacco has had in his entire career.  Superior statistics are not exactly equivalent to a Lombardi Trophy (see Dan Marino), but Sunday's game against the Ravens will be a continuation of The Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 as Cousins must prove he can move the ball against a stingy defense on the road.  Cousins must make McCloughan and the Redskins front office remember what it was like to rest their laurels on the likes of John Beck, Rex Grossman, and an over the hill Mark Brunell.  It begins Sunday when the Redskins make the 45 minute drive up I-95 to face the Ravens.

Quantity vs. Quality: Quantity has a quality all it's own.  One team has lived by that mantra so far this season in having a superior number of rushing attempts, passing attempts, drives, and plays run.  Of course that team is the Ravens.  Maybe not what you were expecting, but the Ravens outpace the Redskins in all four of those categories having a higher volume of offensive output.  The problem lies in the results. The Redskins have amassed 140 more passing yards in 18 less attempts, 140 more total offensive yards in 40 less plays, and surprisingly only 5 less yards rushing on 17 less attempts.  Think about that.  As maligned as the Redskins running game has been this season, their yards per attempt (4.4) is almost a full yard better than the Ravens (3.7).  All of this means that the Redskins have been able to move the ball more efficiently than the Ravens, and they must continue to do so this weekend.  The Ravens's offense relies on running a lot of plays and getting a lot of chances to score, so forcing Flacco and the Ravens to make the most of their possessions is key.  The Redskins must continue the Matt Jones renaissance in order to keep the ball on their side, continue to score on every other possession, and continue to spread the ball around to numerous receivers in order to keep the Ravens defense off balance.  They will need to do this because the Ravens defense has quietly become one of the better defenses in the league, and the game may come down to which defensive style wins out.

Bending, Breaking, and the Forgotten Art of Forcing Punts: This game will be based more on which defense can impose it's will on the other team.  The Redskins may not have been able to stop people on a consistent basis, but they have been opportunistic.  They boast the second best turnover percentage (19.5%) in the league, and that was on full display last week against Cleveland.  They have relied on turnovers to stop drives, and they cannot pull a Carlos Rogers and drop sure interceptions or not be able to recover fumbles when they happen.  The Ravens, though, rely on turning people over through punts.  The Ravens defense has forced 26 punts this season, which is second best in the league.  They have done this by being third in the league in plays per drive (4.8) and first in the league in yards allowed per drive (21.3).  They have also forced less turnovers than the Redskins.  This means the Ravens have been able to actually stop people on defense and give the ball back to their offense.  The Ravens high volume offense relies on their defense limiting the possessions of the other team, so the Redskins must be able to sustain drives if they plan on having the bus ride home be a pleasant one.  The Redskins opportunistic offense relies on their defense giving them chances to score through forcing turnovers.  If the Redskins cannot force turnovers and have short drives it could be a long day for the Burgundy and Gold.  They must look to their MVP's so far this season to guide them through this game.

The MVP's Must Step Up: The Redskins MVP's must come to play this weekend.  It may not have dawned on anyone, but the past two weeks have seen Josh Norman have major pregame rhetorical spats with the likes of Odell Beckham and Terrelle Pryor. This week, though, Norman's nemesis is not as hot of a ticket on the heavyweight circuit.  Josh Norman vs. Mike Wallace does not move the needle as much, and maybe for the better.  Norman can now focus more on shutting down the Ravens receivers without the media trying to turn it into a soap opera type narrative.  The other MVP's have been just as well documented as Norman this season, sans the major media hype, and they must show up this weekend if the Redskins want a chance to win.  Dustin Hopkins must be on point with his kicks and convert his field goal attempts into points, and Tress Way must pin the Ravens deep when he gets the chance.

This game will be a litmus test to see where the Redskins are as a team.  The Ravens are a team with a winning record and a stingy defense that the Redskins must step up to in order to given themselves confidence that they can put themselves back atop the NFC East.  The Redskins offense must not get discouraged if they find themselves be stymied early by the Ravens defense, and having to watch the Redskins defense allow Terrance West to run all over them.  The Redskins must be committed to ball control and running Matt Jones in order to set up play action.  Watch for Flacco to take early chances deep in order to test the Redskins safeties, and look for Joe Barry to dial up all or nothing blitzes in order to try and rattle Flacco.  The Redskins will find themselves down again at the half, but their first drive of the second half goes for a score, they get a timely second half turnover, and Flacco and the Ravens squander a last minute drive.  Redskins are 3-2 going into a showdown with the Eagles next week.

Redskins Win 27-24

Redskins vs. Browns: The Revenant Part II

rev·e·nant

ˈrevəˌnäN,-nənt

noun

1. a person who has returned, especially supposedly from the dead.

If Alejandro Inarritu was ever thinking about making a sequel to The Revenant, he may want to consider bringing a film crew to FedEx Field on Sunday because when the Browns take the field the Redskins will be staring at two players who they thought had been left for dead.  The first needs no introduction.  Robert Griffin was supposed to have his shot at vengeance this weekend as the NFL scheduling gods bestowed their benevolence on Griffin by giving him a shot to vanquish Kirk Cousins in the very city that had forsaken him.  But Griffin did what he does best and got injured, which deprived him of a chance to stick it to the Redskins and deprived the DC Sports Media of a week long conjecture fest by asking such questions as "Did the Redskins Keep the Right QB?", "Is the Redskins Season Over if Griffin Wins", "If Griffin Wins, What Body Part Should Scot McCloughan Lose First?", "If Griffin Wins Is Jay Gruden a Retroactive Racist for Choosing Cousins Over Griffin?".  Alas, it was not meant to be, but the other revenant of the the Browns will most certainly have his name called on Sunday because of his play on the field.

Terrelle Pryor has been left for dead so many times it is hard to believe he is at the top of the Fantasy Football hype machine almost 6 years after it looked like he would go the way of Maurice Clarett.  After leaving Ohio State in 2011 because of the sports memorabilia selling scandal, Pryor's future in football was uncertain until the Raiders selected him in the Supplemental Draft in 2011.  In 2013 he would have a resurgence of his talents through the first three games, but he would miss a chance to play against RG3 and the Redskins in Week 4 of the 2013 season due to a concussion.  He would fall into obscurity again in 2014, but Pryor now finds himself in a new position playing on the same team as RG3 and coming off an historical display of offense that had Fantasy Football owners scrambling on the waiver wire this past week.  His chance to prove that last week was not an anomaly begins this week as he rides into FedEx Field as a specter from the past that must prove that the blood that runs through his veins is still warm.  It will be the Redskins' job to prove otherwise, but it may prove to be both hard and easy at the same time.  Here are the game notes:

Air Raid!!!!: The yards per completion stats on both sides of the ball, for both teams, indicate that we could see some explosive plays through the air.  The Redskins and Browns are averaging 12.8 and 13.0 yards per completion on offense (3rd and 2nd best in the league so far this season), and giving up 12.7 and 12.5 yards per completion on defense.  These stats are exacerbated by the fact that both secondaries are banged up and the Redskins have a propensity for giving up big plays.  Look for the Redskins to use a lot of spread formations and deep go routes with DeSean Jackson to try and exploit the Browns secondary.  If Pryor can get going, though, and Isaiah Crowell can continue to gain 4.7 yards every time he touches the ball it could be a long day for the defense.  The Browns will try to cause confusion in the Redskins defense by moving Pryor all over the field, and they will exploit the Redskins horrendous run defense by feeding Crowell the ball in order to open up big plays in play action and misdirection.  Don't be surprised if Ryan Kerrigan and the rest of the linebackers put on their best matador impression as they over pursue on misdirection and read option running plays that set up Cody Kessler to try and hit the deep ball.  But have no fear, the only way to stop a potent offense is through another potent offense.

The Red Zone Percentage Myth:  Maybe not a myth, but the rage about the Redskins has been their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone while overlooking the fact that they are scoring at a very high clip.  The Redskins are scoring on 51.6% of their drives (3rd best in the league), but they have only converted 21.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (2nd worst in the league).  That got me to thinking about which is more important to winning; red zone TD percentage or overall scoring percentage.  I tallied the wins and losses for the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in each category since the Redskins are in the top 10 in scoring percentage and the bottom 10 in red zone TD percentage.  Here is what I found:

Red Zone TD% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 13-17

Bottom 10 Teams: 17-14

Scoring% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 15-15

Bottom 10 Teams: 11-20

All of this means that we may want to tone down the vitriol we throw at Jay Gruden and Sean McVay about their inefficiencies in the red zone as far as it's significance to winning and losing.  The Redskins are next to last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone, yet the nine other teams that join them in the bottom ten of that list have a better combined record than the 10 teams with the best red zone percentage.  The Redskins find themselves in better company in the scoring percentage category where the Top 10 scoring percentage teams out pace the bottom 10 by a larger margin than their red zone percentage counterparts, and the top 10 scoring percentage teams even have a better overall record than the best red zone percentage teams. This shows that while the Redskins red zone play calling makes you think that Sean McVay rubs paint thinner on his clipboard before every game so he can huff the fumes while calling plays, it may be more important that the Redskins put themselves in position to score points on every other drive.  This scoring percentage will play a factor as the big plays may accrue, and drive efficiency becomes a factor.

If It Ain't Broke Don't Fix It: The one thing the Redskins have been able to do well all season is sustain drives on offense, and it will be of utmost importance to do this on Sunday.  If you add the Redskins average starting field position (32.5 yardline) to their average yardage gained per drive (39.6), it means that on average every Redskins drive should get within a 46 yard field goal range before it gets stopped.  Obviously that will not always happen, but the Browns are not very efficient having only scored on 24.3% of their drives and running 8 less plays on 6 more drives than the Redskins.  The Redskins should look to open up with long sustained drives that create any type of points to put pressure on the Browns to do the same.  If the Redskins find that they have a lead, they should look to start hitting home runs down the field to continue to pressure the Browns offense to make big plays.

The last time the Browns faced an offense as good as the Redskins the allowed the Eagles to score 29 points.  Look for the same thing to happen this week with the Redskins being able to hit their underneath routes early due to the Browns being wary of the deep ball.  Crowder, Garcon, and Reed will have big games in the beginning, and look for DeSean to open up after the first quarter.  The Browns will keep it close early, but a big pass play opens the game up for the Redskins that the Browns never recover from.  A close game, but Redskins fans should get a break from a last minute nail biter.

Redskins win 31-21

Redskins vs. Giants: Moments for Reflection

In this time of overemphasis on the dire state of affairs for the Redskins franchise, let us take a moment to reflect on the past.  It was 2007.  A confident Joe Gibbs led an aspiring Jason Campbell and an upstart Redskins team with a dubious 2-0 record to face a beleaguered 0-2 Giants at FedEx Field.  Eli Manning was entering his 3rd season as a starter, and he had shown regression from his rookie season to the point in 2007 where this game against the Redskins would make or break the season and put his future in New York in question.  Down 17-3 at halftime, things did not look good.  The Giants defense could not stop even the vanilla Gibbs 2.0 offense from putting up points on them and it seemed as if all was lost.  But lo and behold, Eli caught a spark, the Redskins do what they do best and squandered their lead in the fourth quarter, and the Giants found themselves on top 24-17 with 2:19 to go.  Jason Campbell would lead a valiant drive to the one yard line where Ladell Betts would be stopped twice in a row on runs up the middle and the Redskins turned the ball over on downs.  People would later point to that game as the turning point in the Giants season that took them from 0-2 to thwarting the Patriots perfect season in Super Bowl XLII.  Now the Redskins find themselves in a reversal of fortune almost ten years later as we reflect on the present.

The Redskins are now the 0-2 team with their future on the line as they go on the road to face a 2-0 Giants team with more statistical holes than some realize.  Redskins fans, though, have pointed to all kinds of self fulfilling prophecies as to why it is a no-brainer that the Giants will win this game:  

We have not beaten the Giants in the Meadowlands since 2009.  

We have only won there four times since 2000, and 2000 was the last time we won in East Rutherford in September.  

The Giants run defense will eat us alive.  

Josh Norman cannot cover everybody.  

Our defense cannot stop anybody.  

Kirk Cousins has become Fallout Boy again.

All of this neglects the fact that the Redskins' season has come down to one or two plays that have changed the course of their games so far.  And, as stated above, the Giants have some statistical holes that warrant further analysis and could be the key to a Redskins win.

Run the Ball, Run the Ball, Run the Ball:  No matter how futile it may seem, or how formidable the Giants front seven may be against the run, it is time for Sean McVay to look at his opponent and say running the ball is the key to this game.  You don't believe me?  Explain to me how the Giants defense has yet to force a turnover, they allow only 16 points per game, 9.1 yards per completion (best in the league), 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground (5th best in the league), and yet they allow the most plays per drive (7.1) out of any team in the league, and the second highest average time of possession per drive (3:18)?  The answer is running the ball.  Dallas ran 30 times for 101 yards, but they were also able to keep the down and distances manageable for Dak Prescott and keep their drives going.  The Saints only ran 13 times and had little offense to show for it.  If we can keep 3rd downs manageable (i.e. 6 yards or less) and commit to running the ball on first and second down, Cousins can do what he does best and throw intermediate to short routes to convert first downs. Speaking of throwing the ball:

A Possession Passing Clinic: Eli Manning is only 23rd in the league in pass attempts, yet he is first in completion percentage.  Eli's longest pass this season has only been 45 yards.  There is no doubt he will try and test Breeland and Phillips to see if they have the mettle to defend their receivers long, but it may not be an air it out type game.  If Manning can establish a short throwing game then it could open up the porous Redskins run defense even more.  With the Giants losing three fumbles last week and the Redskins defense being notorious for stripping the ball, look for the Giants to use the short passing game to set up the run and control the clock.  

Hunt With One Bullet at All Times:  A plea to the Redskins defense to seize opportunities when they come.  While Manning has thrown only one interception this year he has been sacked twice as much as Kirk Cousins on almost 20 less attempts.  Four sacks may not seem like a lot, but the Giants are not passing the ball as much so the sacks stand out more.  There may be opportunities for the Redskins to pressure Eli if he comes out throwing, and if the Redskins can stop the run it may provide more opportunities to sack Manning that they cannot give up.  The Redskins defense also missed recovering a crucial Ezekiel Elliot fumble last week that would have ended the Cowboys' go ahead drive.  This game will come down to possession, so any opportunity that the Redskins defense has to get off the field must not be squandered. 

A moment to reflect on the near future.  This game will come down to possession.  As omnipotent as the Giants defense has been made out to be, it is not without its faults especially when it comes to offenses holding on to the ball against them.  Likewise, the Redskins offense has been able to move the ball relatively well this year, but they need to capitalize on these drives with touchdowns.  I see a ball control battle where each team trades off long drives with defensive stops sprinkled in.  The Redskins get a touchdown off of a timely turnover, they sack Manning at least 3 times and hurry him all day, and they keep the Giants guessing by running and throwing out of a lot of three TE sets.

Redskins win 21-20 

Redskins vs. Falcons: The Most Important Dan Snyder Era Season Begins

Last night's preseason game against the Falcons kicked off what will be the most significant season The Redskins franchise has faced since Dan Snyder became owner.  Never before have The Redskins had an incumbent quarterback come off such a successful season without a major injury or quarterback controversy in the Dan Snyder Era.  Never before has Dan Snyder invested so much money into the quarterback position.  Never before in the Snyder era have the Redskins surrounded their quarterback with as much talent at the WR and TE position.  Finally, never in the last 15 years have we amassed as much talent on both sides of the ball to give the fan base a reasonable sense that this team could do something it has also not done since Dan Snyder took over: Have back to back winning seasons.  The quest for consecutive winning seasons means more when you figure that the Redskins have put together a team that will metaphorically, and literally, stare down the fate of this franchise over the course of the 2016 season.

The Redskins and Kirk Cousins will have their fate for the next four to five seasons hanging in the balance every week. If Gruden and Cousins can repeat the magic of last season, both may be able to continue that magic for the long term here in Washington.  If not, it could be back to the drawing board at quarterback as we have seen Scot McCloughan be stingy about a long term contract for Cousins so far.  The Redskins will literally stare down their fate as Robert Griffin will more than likely be starting for the Browns when they come to FedEx Field on October 2nd.  If that is the case then all that has been built over the last 18 months will come down to that one game.  The Redskins win and Gruden and McCloughan made the right decision going with Cousins over Griffin.  The Redskins lose and they will suffer a symbolic setback that they may not be able to recover from.  Suffice to say that this season will determine whether the Redskins can become a perennial winning team or continue their five year cycle of one amazing "no one saw that coming" playoff season followed by four years of 4-12 turmoil.  It all began with the preseason opener against the Falcons, and here are the high a low points:

If the faith that Jay Gruden has in Kirk Cousins's abilities was not apparent, it is after last night's performance.  Cousins went 5 for 5 on one drive and called it a night.  Cousins did what he was the best in the NFL at last season, which was completion percentage, and his limited playing time should give fans solace that Gruden knows that Cousins can make plays.  Kudos also go out to Ryan Grant, who made the most of his targets from Cousins and showed that he may yet have life on this crowded receiver corps, and to Rashad Ross who may be moving himself into the returner role with an impressive opening kickoff return.  Robert Kelley and Mack Brown looked like they could fight or an RB spot on the team, although they may need to showcase their talents against tougher competition.  Team awards go to the first team defense and the punt coverage team.   I think Madden 2017 may need to consider giving Tress Way that 99 rating they so graciously gave Matt Turk because the punt coverage team did an amazing job all night of covering punts, especially the first one that they downed inside the one. Following that punt, the first team defense was able to hold the Falcons from moving the ball and looked every bit of the defense we saw from last season.  Martrell Spaight made some great plays that showed he wants to make an impact after his injury from last season, Su'a Cravens showed flashes of brilliance in run support, and Trent Murphy made a case that he may not be done yet at outside linebacker.  Negatives were abound, however, and the biggest ones have to do with the running game.

Matt Jones was the darling of last year's preseason, but he did not show much in this first game.  It could be that the Redskins do not want to over work him due to last year's injuries, but all the other running backs were able to make some big plays that were lacking in Jones's performance.  If this continues do not be surprised if Chris Thompson gets the starting nod at least some point this preseason.  The running game was also a problem on the defensive side of the ball.  The defense was able to shut down the outside running lanes but they were gashed on runs between the tackles.  These runs up the middle were the backbone of the Falcons's first scoring drive, and it could become a glaring weakness considering the Redskins did not really address the DT position after the departure of Terrance Knighton.  The backup secondary looked shaky as well.  Quinton Dunbar had a long night covering former Redskin go route specialist Aldrick Robinson, and he received no help from Will Blackmon at safety.  Finally, while the punt team did it's job, the kickoff team figured that Dustin Hopkins must run a 4.3 and left it up to him to cover the kick coming out of halftime.  They found out otherwise and need to sure that up for next week.

Onward to the Jets for next week, where we should get more from the first teamers and a better idea of who should be starting at running back this season.

Katie Ledecky's Dominance Should Transcend the Pool

Katie Ledecky's dominance should transcend what she does in the pool, but somehow that narrative has not yet seeped into the mythos that Ledecky has built for herself through her outright bludgeoning of anyone who has stepped into the pool with her over the past four years.  In the prelude to the Rio Olympics, Ledecky's accomplishments have been brought to the forefront of the athletic community to the point where some have stated that she is the most dominant athlete in the world.  If you hold any skepticism towards that statement, maybe an excerpt from Dave Sheinin's article in the Washington Post about Ledecky will give you some perspective:

           

               “She’s the greatest athlete in the world today by far,” said Michael J. Joyner, an anesthesiologist and researcher for the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., specializing in human performance and physiology. “She’s dominating by the widest margin in international sport, winning by 1 or 2 percent. If [a runner] won the 10,000 meters by that wide a margin, they’d win by 100 meters. One or 2 percent in the Tour de France, over about 80 hours of racing, would be 30 or 40 minutes. It’s just absolutely remarkable.”

Yet it is this dominance that has been highlighted ad nauseam in every article written about Ledecky over the past six weeks with very little mention of what that means for her persona.  It is great to hear how hard she trains, how much she has sacrificed to be in a position to do something that has only happened once in the history of swimming at the Olympics (win gold in the 200, 400 and 800 meters), and how her stroke mechanics have changed over time.  But Ledecky's narrative should go beyond mere regurgitation of her dominance in the pool and move towards what she means for the female athletic movement as a whole.

In this time of hyper awareness of women's accomplishments and issues in athletics, Katie Ledecky should be the poster child/role model for the female athletic movement because she has become the most dominant athlete in the world solely due to her performance in the pool.  One needs to look no further that the Sports Illustrated Cover for the Rio Olympics to see that symbolically she has reached this pinnacle.  Ledecky is in the forefront right next to Michael Phelps and in front of everyone else including Kevin Durant.  Ledecky didn't do this by wearing ostentatious outfits, or appearing in a Beyonce video, or posing in ESPN's Body Issue, or partaking in a national endorsement campaign, or making outrageous posts on social media.  She is on this cover because of what she has done in her respective sport.  This is not to demonize female athletes for partaking in any of the aforementioned mediums, but it sends the message to young female athlete's that they cannot succeed based on their performance alone.  There has been no Tim Duncan in female athletics; until now.

Katie Ledecky's accomplishments have made her the most dominant athlete in the world, and it should make her a beacon for all young female athletes who wish to pursue their craft.  It may be hard to get that message out considering that she turned down millions in endorsement deals to swim at Stanford, but that should also go to perpetuate what she means to the athletic community as a whole.  Katie Ledecky is the antithesis of what we expect from high profile athletes, and that message should especially resonate with young female athletes. The young female athlete of today should see Katie Ledecky and realize that they do not need to objectify themselves, that they can choose an education over millions of dollars, they can be outwardly humble and internally competitive, that they do not have to be omnipresent on social media, and that they can be recognized as an athlete first and a celebrity second.  When Katie Ledecky steps up on the blocks this coming week, people will know that she is not up there for money, endorsements, or personal exposure.  She may be the first major athlete in a long time that is up there for the love of the sport and the thrill of competition. That, more than her training and ability, is what should make Katie Ledecky's dominance transcend the pool and make her a role model for all young female athletes.

The Josh Norman Signing May Have Big Consequences

Just when you thought that the Redskins have reformed their ways and they will act more prudent in the free agent market, the major free agents come knocking like some old girlfriend who knows she will at least be let in the door and the Redskins are all too happy to oblige.  Two years ago it was DeSean Jackson.  While people were skeptical about that signing this team would be in a very different spot without him and his contract did not break the bank.  Last year it was Junior Galette. Galette still needs to prove himself after his season ending injury but the Redskins got him at a big discount.  So if Galette can produce anything it will be a win for Scot McCloughan.  The signing of Josh Norman, though, is different.  Norman is being brought in to be the man and he is being paid as such.  His 5 year, $75 million contract makes him one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the league, and he is being brought in on a whirlwind courtship that began roughly 48 hours after Carolina decided to rescind the franchise tag on him.  To top it all off, the Norman signing used up eight of the eleven million dollars in cap space the Redskins had for this season.

This is vintage Redskins free agency; get the best guy for a lot of money no matter the repercussions. There was no way Norman was leaving Ashburn without a contract, and it was the right move to make, but it is the repercussions that need to be examined because this signing leaves the Redskins with very little room to maneuver within the Salary Cap.  The makeup of the Redskins roster and draft board will be shaken up by this signing, and the fallout from these changes may give the Redskins Brass a better negotiating position come next Spring.  Let's look at what could happen in the next few days leading up to the Draft:

1) Gacron and/or Jackson are all but gone.  I hate to say this, but it makes the most financial sense.  Either Jackson, Garcon, or both will not be playing for the Redskins come September.  Both are free agents at the end of next season anyway, and cutting Garcon alone will free up $8 million in cap space.  Jackson will only account for $6 million if he is let go.  It will be a hard decision because the Redskins need to weigh Jackson's deep threat ability with Garcon's toughness in the red zone and leadership qualities.  Whichever receiver is let go, look for any combination of Perry Riley, Logan Paulsen, and Chris Baker to follow them out the door as they are also slated to be UFA's at the end of the 2016 season and cutting them can add more cap space for the Redskins.

2) The Redskins will not be trading for more picks.  That is unless they can free up cap space by cutting players.  The projected cap hit (scroll down to the very bottom for the draft pick cap cost) for the Redskins current draft picks is $5.6 million, and if you factor those players into the Redskins current cap situation the Redskins are about $7 million over the cap.  McCloughan simply cannot afford to sign the 11-12 players he wants to draft unless he makes massive roster changes and restructures.  If there are not massive cuts made before Thursday, look for the Redskins to stand pat.

3) The Redskins will take at least two WR's in the draft, and one of them will be in the first three rounds.  This will be especially true if Garcon and Jackson are let go.  Even if they are not, it is hard to foresee Garcon and Jackson both being on this roster after this season due to the impending expiration of the contracts of Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed after this season.  The Redskins need to be thinking long term especially with Cousins's contract looming.  Speaking of quarterbacks.......

4) Do not be surprised if the Redskins draft a quarterback before the fifth round.  I sincerely hope this is not the case, but it will not be surprising given the circumstances.  The Redskins only have two quarterbacks on the roster for next season; one of whom is on a lucrative, yet tentative, one year contract and another who looks to be a backup for the remainder of his NFL tenure.  The Redskins may decide to draft an insurance policy that they could go forward with if the Cousins situation cannot be resolved by the end of next season, and the Norman signing has put Cousins contract negotiations in a precarious position.

5) The Norman Signing puts Kirk Cousins in a Catch-22.  Whether intentionally or unintentionally, the Redskins front office has put Kirk Cousins in a position where the only outcome will be the Redskins offering him less money again whenever they decide to sit down and negotiate.  Lost in the drunken celebration of the Josh Norman signing is the nugget that he will count $20 million against the cap next year.  The Redskins were skiddish about giving Cousins a long term $20 million per year contract before this signing, and now they will be even more leery of opening up the checkbook due to the sizable amount of money that Norman will be receiving next year.  The Catch-22 comes from the fact that there is nothing that Cousins's play can do to stop this low balling from happening.  Let's assume that the Redskins cut either Jackson or Garcon, and Cousins has a monster season throwing to the one that stays and Jordan Reed.  Reed and Jackson/Garcon's contract will be up at the end of the season, and it is not far fetched to think that the Redskins will low ball Cousins under the guise of The Redskins needing to resign the parts that made him successful.  If Cousins's play is mediocre then that alone will justify the Redskins throwing a low ball offer at Cousins, especially if they draft a quarterback who they think could do just as well for less money in the short term.  If the low ball offers come at the end of next season, it could be that Cousins decides to fly his bombing missions for someone else, and a big part of that could be due to the money they paid Norman putting a stangle hold on the salary cap.

The Redskins made the right move in signing Josh Norman, but the after effects of this signing will be felt for years to come.  It is up to McCloughan, and the Redskins front office, to make prudent decisions that will allow this team to operate within the salary cap.  That could mean that one or more of the above situations may happen, all because of the Redskins doing what they do best winning the offseason championship.

Redskins Draft Special

There are very few events that get their own countdown on ESPN.com.  The NFL draft is one of those events, and while the NFL has bastardized the Draft by spreading it out over multiple days it is still pegged as one of the premier prognosticating events for sports analysts.  With the Redskins publicly stating that they want to acquire four more picks than they have already, Mel Kiper may need to bring an extra can of pomade to keep his hair down trying to analyze the Redskins draft moves.  But trades are too complex to try and predict when they will happen, how they will happen, and with which of the other 31 teams the Redskins will deal with, so let's analyze the draft as if the Redskins will not trade any of their picks.  Here are the players SweetDCSports believes the Redskins should take at each position if the player is available, and not counting if they decide to trade out of that position.

Note: All scouting information came from CBS Sports and NFL Combine Results Page.  I used the projected rankings at each position on the CBS site to determine who would possibly be available in each round.  For example, If CBS projected someone to go in the 3rd round then I did not factor them being available to the Redskins in the 4th round.  Enjoy.

Round 1 (21st Overall Selection):  Andrew Billings    DT    (Baylor)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 311 lbs   40 yd: 5.05   Bench Press: 31 reps

The Redskins need to think long term at nose tackle after the departure of Terrance Knighton and Billings seems to be the right guy for the job.  His freakish strength allows him to overpower lineman, and he has a quick first step that allows him to elude his initial blocker.  Known for his closing speed and elite run stopping ability, Billings was also able to have his best pass rushing season in 2015 with 5.5 sacks.  He also fits the frame of a McCloughan type player: high motor, violent playmaker, durable (played 86 of 90 snaps against Oklahoma).  His shortcomings are that he has been noted to give up on plays if his initial rush proves unsuccessful, and he has trouble changing direction if the play gets past him.  He is also young.  He left Baylor after his true Junior year and he just turned 21 years old.  There may be concerns about his youth and how well he will acclimate to NFL life, but with Chris Baker and Kedric Golston in the locker room he would have great role models to help him out.

Billings would give the Redskins a nasty presence inside that will open up pass rush lanes for guys like Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Galette, and Preston Smith.  He also adds quickness in the middle of the line that will improve the line's ability to close in on running backs at the point of attack.  I think he is a much better fit for the Redskins than Jarran Reed and Sheldon Rankins, and if Billings is off the board before the Redskins are up look for McCloughan to trade down and possibly take Vernon Butler in the second round.  If Billings is available, though, I cannot see McCloughan passing on him due to the Redskins need for a true nose tackle to anchor the defensive line.


Round 2 (53rd Overall Selection):  Keanu Neal    Safety   (Florida)
Height: 6'0"   Weight: 211 lbs   40 yd: 4.62   Vertical: 38"

It maybe unrealistic to think that Keanu Neal falls to the Redskins at the 53rd pick. This could be a scenario where the Redskins trade down from their first round pick to put themselves in a position to get one of the higher ranked safeties, but Keanu Neal has to be the one the Redskins are looking at for their second round pick.  The Redskins are coming into the 2016 season with only four safeties total on their roster, and Neal provides a flexible luxury of having played both strong and free safety at Florida. While his 2015 stats do not pop out at you (83 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) maybe his highlight tape will show you why the Redskins should take him.  Scouts note that he is an enforcer that likes to bring the wood, which is evident in a lot of the hits he lays in this video.  It is concerning that half of the hits involve Neal dropping his shoulder and not wrapping up on tackles in space that will not fly in the NFL, but he shows the ability to be at least a serviceable strong safety. He also shows the ability to cover a wide range of field and he shows a knack for getting to the ball.  Finally, his size is second to none and he is characterized as a high motor guy who rarely fatigues.

Think of what the Redskins could do with a guy who can be interchanged at the safety positions, someone who can bring a physical presence on the edges of the defense, and run down wide receivers and running backs in the open field and make them pay with big hits.  Keanu Neal brings that type of presence to a secondary that was beleaguered at times in 2015.  His 6'0", 211 pound, long armed frame means he can match up with NFL wide receivers, and he boasts one of the best vertical jumps for safeties at the combine this year.  If he is available at 53 the Redskins would be crazy to pass on him, and I think he is a safer choice than Karl Joseph of West Virgina due to Jospeh's knee injury sidelining him since October.  McCloughan has to use an early pick to upgrade the safety position and Keanu Neal will be the best pick for the Redskins if they can get him.

Round 3 (84th Overall Selection):  Jerald Hawkins    OT   (LSU)
Height: 6'6"   Weight: 305 lbs   40 yd: 5.23   Bench Press: 23 reps

Hawkins possesses a lot of the attributes that you would want in a third round offensive tackle.  He has a season's worth of experience at both right an left tackle against SEC competition.  Hawkins's footwork allows him to get to his spots quickly, and his lateral movement gives him strengths in defending against speed pass rushers and opportunistic run defenders.  He has long arms that give him an imposing frame and he is quick off the snap, which allows him to set his blocks with a strong grip and hand placement.  And the knocks on him are even more promising.  Scouts have said that he lacks the proper strength to operate in the run game and to sustain blocks past the first level of run support.  Strength can be acquired through training and proper motivation.  The other minus against Hawkins in that his physical frame is too narrow and that there is limited potential for strength growth.  But as Yoda once said "Size matters not....Judge me by my size, do you?".

Hawkins's footwork and experience more than make up for his lack of elite level strength, and he would have time to develop his strength considering that he would not need to start right away.  The Redskins go into the 2016 season with only three true offesnive tackles, and Hawkins provides the luxury of having played both tackle positions at an elite level.  While Joe Haeg (North Dakota State) may provide better quickness, and John Theus (Georgia) may have slightly more experience, Jerald Hawkins can provide both with limitations that can easily be remedied.  McCloughan needs to start thinking about how to restock depth on the offensive line and Hawkins seems like a perfect fit for the Skins in the third round

Round 4 (120th Overall Selection):  Eric Murray    DB   (Minnesota)
Height: 5'11"   Weight: 199 lbs   40 yd: 4.49   Vertical: 39.5"

It may be tempting for McCloughan to take a running back at this position, but Murray seems to be a more solid pick than the projected fourth round running backs.  The Redskins need to add some depth at the corner position with Culliver coming off an injury riddled 2015 season, and Murray fits the bill of the players McCloughan is trying to recruit.  A three year starter at Minnesota, Murray was also named team captain his senior year and was lauded for his commitment on and off the field.  Murray is well versed in multiple coverage schemes, and while he only amassed two interceptions over his college career he was also able to break up 24 passes.  Scouts note Murray's superior coverage techniques as a byproduct of his penchant for watching film and diagnosing routes.  Murray also brings tenacity when stopping the run, where he consistently fights through blocks to bring the ball carrier down.  He does run a bit small at 5'11", and scouts note his lack of hip quickness when breaking out of his back pedal which may lead to Murray getting beat by vertical routes at the pro-level.  Murray, though, brings a huge upside of leadership, experience, confidence, and consistency that McCloughan has seemed to covet in his draft picks.

This is an area where if the Redskins trade down they could have their cake and eat it too.  Alex Collins, running back out of Arkansas, looks intriguing in this area as well, and if the Redskins are able to trade down and get extra picks in the fourth round we may see the Redskins select a CB and RB.  If the Redskins decide to stand pat, though, or only possess one pick in the fourth round it has to be Murray if he is available.  He possesses too much football IQ and versatility, Murray started 13 games on special teams his freshman year where he blocked two kicks, for the Redskins to pass him up.  Murray would add a wealth of experience and leadership to the Redskins secondary, and give them depth at a position that was hampered by injuries in 2015.

Round 5 (158th Overall Selection):  Willie Beavers   OT   (Western Michigan)
Height: 6'4"   Weight: 324 lbs   40 yd: 5.28   Bench Press: 20 reps

Depth at offensive tackle is a major area of need that the Redskins have, and they need to think about taking more than one in the 2016 Draft.  The Redskins would find themselves in a fortuitous position if Beavers was waiting for them at the 158th pick.  Do not let where he played turn you off.  Beavers possesses great quickness that allows him to set his blocks early and get down the field on runs and screen plays.  He has shown the ability to hold his block for as long as he can, and he does not quit when he initially gets beat off of the line.  Scouts note his ability to process defensive stunts and blitzes and react to them before they can cause havoc.  Finally, Beavers possesses the experience that McCloughan prefers in his selections.  Beavers is a redshirt senior who started 40 games at left tackle for the Broncos, and scouts at the Combine noted that he has the ability to play all over the offensive line given proper coaching.

The coaching part is where Bill Callahan will have to work his magic.  Beavers's weakness comes from his overly aggressive style of play.  He tends to get himself out of position because he is too gung ho in trying to set his blocks when the defenders are being more tentative and not coming right at him.  Callahan is the man for the job, though, and Beavers could blossom into a serviceable backup tackle for his first few NFL seasons.  With Beavers and Hawkins, the Redskins would have a viable insurance plan if Morgan Moses or Trent Williams goes down without having to force Kory Lichtensteiger to move away from Center where he has found a career renaissance.  Beavers could, emphasis on could, also become a viable option going forward as Trent Williams continues to get older.  His positional versatility, wealth of experience, and physical attributes would be a steal at this pick so do not be surprised if the Redskins take him earlier if they find trade partners to gain picks in the late fourth or earlier fifth round.

Round 6 (187th Overall Selection):  Darius Jackson   RB   (Eastern Michigan)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 220 lbs   40 yd: 4.35   Vertical: 41"   Broad Jump: 133"

There is nothing wrong with your screen. You are reading those numbers above correctly.  Jackson posted those numbers at Michigan's Pro Day because he was not invited to the NFL Combine. Fairly impressive for a guy his size considering his vertical jump would have been the eighth best ever by an RB at the Combine and his broad jump would be tied for fifth.  The reason Jackson may not be getting more national hype is because he only had one full season as a starting running back. That was this past season as a senior where he was able to gain 1078 yards and score 14 TD's, but most of that was against MAC competition and most of his runs came out of read option shotgun formations.  The low level of competition that he faced coupled with the scheme that he played in at Eastern Michigan may have devalued his draft status, but his highlight reel shows his top level speed and above average pass catching ability.  Jackson also shows that he can make people miss in the open field and can pass block when given the opportunity.

With Alfred Morris leaving this off season, the Redskins need to think about adding depth to this position.  Jackson's workout numbers may make some teams take him earlier than his projected 6th round status, and one of those teams should be the Redskins if they get the chance.  Jackson's coaches at Eastern Michigan stated that he is one of their best practice players, and he would be a perfect hybrid of size and speed to compliment Matt Jones and Chris Thompson.  Jackson should be a target for the Redskins, and if he is still available in the 6th round with the Redskins still not having picked a running back, McCloughan should give Jackson the call to move to DC.

Round 7 (232nd Overall Selection):  Ricardo Louis   WR   (Auburn)
Height: 6'2"   Weight: 215 lbs   40 yd: 4.43   Vertical: 38"   Bench Press: 18 reps

If Rich Tandler's proposed dilemma goes in Laquon Treadwell's favor, the Redskins may not give Ricardo Louis the time of day in the seventh round if he is still there.  But the Redskins have more urgent needs in other positions, and Ricardo Louis would be a decent pick for the Redskins at the end of the Draft.  Louis is the receiver who caught "The Prayer at Jordan-Hare" two years ago, and he has since developed himself into a serviceable wide out.  Louis saw an increased work load after Duke Williams was dismissed from Auburn this season, and Louis took advantage by catching 46 passes for 716 yards and three touchdowns.  He also was able to rush for 158 yards and score one rushing touchdown.  Louis is touted as a great YAC receiver that uses his speed off the line and physical size to get separation and make tough catches on the sideline.  He is also agile in space and is not afraid of being physical at the end of his runs.  He was also one of the top wide receivers at the combine in the 40, vertical jump, and bench press.  The reason he is not rated higher is due to major concerns about his catching ability.  Louis is noted as dropping easy passes due to loss of focus, and there are added concerns that Auburn's scheme allowed Louis to exploit coverages more so than his physical attributes.

Let's see. Big, physical receiver that is good after the catch and can use his size to be physical with defenders.  Good thing the Redskins don't already have a receiver like that with a $10M cap hit turning 30 this year.  Oh, wait.  Not only will Pierre Garcon be turning 30 and be without a contract next year, DeSean Jackson will also be meeting all of those criteria at the end of the 2016 season as well.  Louis would be a low risk, high reward pick that can take at least one season to try and get his shortcomings in order while not being asked to do much on the field.  Louis sounds like he could fill Garcon's spot if he were not to be retained, or be a welcome compliment if Garcon were to stay.  The Redskins should be looking at a receiver, but I hope it is later in the draft and they give Ricardo Louis a look.

Round 7 (242nd Overall Selection):  Darrell Greene   OG   (San Diego State)
Height: 6'3"   Weight: 321 lbs   40 yd: 5.20   Bench Press: 28 reps

This would not be just a nostalgic pick, but somewhere deep down you know that Dan Snyder wants this guy on our team simply because of his name.  Darrell Greene is a red shirt senior from San Diego State who started 25 straight games for the Aztecs until he was suspended for the first six games of the 2015 season due to a positive marijuana test.  Greene started the final seven games in 2015, but the damage had been done to his draft status.  While this aspect of his college career may not mesh with what McCloughan is trying to build with this team, Greene's play on the field seems to be right up his alley.  Greene utilizes his quick footwork and mean disposition to overpower defenders and get to the second level on run plays.  Greene has shown the ability to be a good pulling guard due to his above average footwork, and he has been noted as being a solid pass protector.  Marijuana aside, Greene does have limitations in his game that have given scouts pause on picking him too high.  His short arms have allowed longer armed defenders to outwork him at times and force him out of position, which he is something he will have to deal with on a more regular basis in the NFL.  His blitz pickup and blocking on the move has been called into question, as well, but the big red flag for McCloughan will probably be the drug test.

Greene passes the McCloughan on the field criteria.  An offensive lineman that plays to the whistle and overpowers his opponents with his strength and determination.  Hopefully, the Redskins do their job and look into the drugs allegations, but this should be someone whom the Redskins peg as a huge value pick if he is still available at the end of the draft.  The Redskins running game took a big hit last year when people became injured and they had to rearrange the offensive line.  Greene would add depth to this position, and he would also be someone the Redskins could develop over time.