Sunday, March 25, 2018

The Capitals Are Winning With Grit

It is hard to believe that it has been ten years since this all started.  Ten years since the Rock the Red era truly began and engulfed the DC market.  Ten years since the Caps were left for dead in the middle of November, only to be resurrected by Bruce Boudreau's high flying style of hockey that led them to a Southeast Division Championship.  Since that time the Caps have regularly enjoyed the pinnacles of success throughout the regular season, only to be disappointed time and again once the playoffs rolled around.  Even the 2007-2008 Capitals, for all the moxie they displayed throughout that season, could not get out of the first round of the playoffs.  The determination of that '07-'08 team, though, is what separates them from the rest of the Caps teams that have won over the past decade.  That team had to scrap for a majority of the season to put themselves in a position to win a division title.  All the other subsequent iterations of the Capitals rested on the laurels of their talent, and high expectations, to carry them to success without developing a true sense of grit.  Until this season.

For the first time in ten years, the Capitals came into this season with very low expectations.  Another playoff exit at the hands of the Penguins, coupled with the exodus of numerous high profile free agents, led everyone to the conclusion that the Capitals' window of success had closed.  Even die hard Caps fans had to take a serious look at the game program on opening day to know who the hell was starting, and most fans expected this new combination of players to be inferior to what they had seen in the recent past.  The fans' reservations about the team were confirmed early on, but the Caps have fought through that adversity in a way nobody expected to find themselves at the top of the Metropolitan Division in an equally inexplicable manner.  Just look at the stats.  The Capitals are 24th in the league in Corsi% (47.82%), which means they are giving up significantly more shots on goal than they put on their opponents net.  They are the only division leader that has under 100 points, and their +15 goal differential is the lowest of any team that has 90 points or more.  They have the 5th worst penalty differential at -32, meaning they are taking way more penalties than they are drawing.  Finally, their PDO stat (Save% + Shooting%, which traditionally has been an indirect indicator of luck) of 101.62 is 5th best in the league.  So the Caps are leading the most competitive division in the NHL with a low goal differential relative to their point total while taking numerous penalties and benefiting from a wee bit of puck luck. What gives?  The answer lies in the grit that the Capitals have developed over the course of this season.

Despite the high roster turnover and low expectations stemming from the end of last season, the Capitals have been able to organically develop a sense of resiliency through all players needing to prove themselves.  New forwards like Chandler Stephenson, Devante Smith-Pelly, and Alex Chiasson had to prove that they belong on a high caliber team such as the Capitals.  Jakub Vrana had to prove that his skill set warranted him being a regular second line starter.  Brett Connolly needed to prove that he was not a one-hit-free-agent wonder.  Christian Djoos needed to prove that he could replace both the offensive and defensive skills that left the Capitals defense after last seasons.  Grubauer needed to prove that Vegas made a mistake in passing on him in the supplemental draft, and subsequently Holtby continues to need to prove he is still the number one goalie in DC.  Finally, the superstars of the team needed to prove that the real skill of the team did not leave Washington, and that they could keep the window of success open so long as they wear a red sweater.  All of these sentiments have coalesced into a team that is not phased by close games, and one that has come out on top in those games more often than naught through resiliency rather than skill level.  Maybe the advanced stats are right, and that the Capitals have just been the benefit of luck throughout this season.  And maybe the Caps will continue to be susceptible to teams like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay who have the speed and skill through the middle that have haunted this team in the playoffs in years past.  But unlike other seasons, the Capitals have not tried to manufacture success.  For the first time in ten years, they have developed a mentality from within that has galvanized the team in a way that has made them ready for whatever challenges arise at the end of this season.  It is still not even a given that the Capitals will make the playoffs this season, but the Capitals have the one thing necessary to handle all situations.  Grit.

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