The Redskins Empire Is Losing Control

For the first time since they established their outright hegemony over the Washington DC fan base, the Washington Redskins find their empire at its most vulnerable state.  With the firing of Scot McCloughan and the Kirk Cousins contract debacle, the Redskins brass stands to alienate generations of fans that had a lukewarm investment in the Redskins to begin with after years of losing and ineptitude.  And where once there was no viable alternative for these fans to turn to, the Capitals, Nationals, and Wizards find themselves in advantageous positions to woo these fans to their cause.  The winds of change are already blowing in the DC area, and the fans are responding by raising their sails in the opposite direction of Redskins Park.  The causes of these changes go beyond mere brotherhood between the other three DC franchises.  It is rooted in the success that the other three teams are experiencing in contrast to the Burgundy and Gold.  The Capitals and Wizards have legitimate chances this summer to make it to their conference and league finals, The Nationals are expected to be a contender for the World Series, and all three teams have superstars that are recognized as being in the top tier of players in their respective leagues.  These factors have placed these three franchises in a position to steal a generation of fans from the Washington Redskins, and the portents of these shifting allegiances can be seen in various areas.  The first sign of this lost fandom can be seen in jersey sales.

The Redskins jersey sales for the 2016 season show that they have very little to offer young fans in the area of recognizable, and marketable, superstars unlike their DC counterparts.  The NFLshop and Dick's Sporting Goods have lists of their top selling jerseys for the 2016 season.  While these probably do not constitute all of the NFL jersey's sold in 2016, it is not good news for the Redskins when none of their players crack the Top 25 jersey sales on either site, and Ryan Kerrigan and Kirk Cousins round out the Top 40 on the Dicks list at #39 and #40 respectively.  Just to give perspective on how far down that is, Tyler Eifert, Joe Haden, and Sammy Watkins all sold more jerseys at Dicks than Kerrigan and Cousins.  Compare that to Alex Ovechkin, who has the 7th highest selling jersey on shopnhl, and Bryce Harper, who as of 2015 had the 5th highest selling jersey in the MLB.  This is quantitative proof that the Nationals and Capitals are outpacing the Redskins in the area of marketable superstars, and while John Wall doesn't crack the NBA's top jersey sales he is being marketed as the next big superstar by the Wizards who are suddenly catching fire.  Contrast this with how the Redskins have passively undermined their franchise quarterback, and it is not hard to see that  a generation of DC fans have grown up with other heroes to root for that do not wear Burgundy and Gold.  It has become cooler for young kids to have a Bryce Harper jersey than it is to have  Kirk Cousins jersey (if you can find one).  But the NFL is about marketing the team, not the individual player, right?  If that is the case then the Redskins are still losing ground to the other three teams.

Forbes Magazine puts out their list of most valuable teams for every major sports league.  Please look at the pages for the Caps, Wizards, Nationals, and Redskins to see what they are worth, but an analysis of some of the information on these sites show that the Redskins may be losing ground in popularity to the other three DC teams.  Forbes has four areas of how the team's value is broken down, but the one that is most telling is the percentage of value attributed to the team's brand.  The Redskins' brand only accounts for 7.5% of their overall value, which is worth about $221 million in absolute value according to Forbes.  None of the other teams match that total amount of money, but all the other teams have a higher percentage brand value relative to their overall worth than the Redskins.  The Wizards are at 9.8%, The Nats are at 11.0%, and The Caps are at 12.3%.  This means that these other teams spend more time promoting their brand than the Redskins, and it can be seen with the promotions and slogans they have put out over the past decade.  The Caps have Rock the Red.  The Nationals have #Nattitude.  The Wizards have #DCRising.  The Redskins have...........HTTR?  It is hard to think of one for them, right?  The other three teams have done more to connect with the fans through brand promotion than the Redskins, and the fans have taken notice by buying jerseys, merchandise, and tickets for the Nats, Caps, and Wiz at a higher clip than they have for the Redskins.  If you're still not convinced just look at the total revenue for each team since 2008, which is provided on the Forbes site.  

The Redskins have the lowest increase in total team revenue (36%) from 2008-2016 than any other DC Sports team.  Even the Wizards have managed to show a 38% increase in total revenue according to Forbes, and their play over that span of time may have been worse than the Redskins.  It is also worth mentioning that the Caps increased their revenue by 86%, and that Nats increased their revenue by 91% over that same time span.  The Redskins total revenue ($447 Million projected for 2016) dwarfs all other teams, but the slowing growth rate shows that the other teams are gaining in popularity by the increase in the amount of money they are pulling in.  And the argument that "Well, these teams were so small that they were due for a large increase, and the NFL is such a moneymaking leviathan that the room for growth in that league is less" doesn't hold up.  Not only have the Redskins shown the least amount of revenue growth for DC sports teams, they have the lowest revenue growth for all 32 NFL teams in that span according to Forbes.  And it is not even close.  All other NFL teams have seen at least a 50% increase in their revenue over that time frame, and that includes teams like the Browns (57% increase), Jaguars (68% increase), and Bills (58% increase).  So the lack of revenue growth cannot be attributed to something that is inherent within the NFL. It is another sign that the Redskins are losing fans to the other three DC Sports teams by not gaining as much money through merchandising and ticket sales.  One needs to look no further than the Redskins having to remove seats from FedEx Field to see the loss of ticket sales.  But all of these numbers pale in comparison to the one thing that sways any fan to a certain team.  Winning.

All of these jersey sales, brand percentages, and increase revenue growth are all based on winning.  The Capitals and Nationals have been able to experience sustained success over the past 8-10 years, and the Wizards may be beginning their time as NBA contenders.  All three have legitimate shots to make a run at a championship, and the Wizards and Capitals have a chance to bring post season championships to the DC area before the Redskins can take a snap for their 2017 season.  If they are able to do that, and the Nationals at least win the NL Pennant this fall, it would herald a new age in DC sports fandom.  The Redskins may have to play second or third fiddle to teams that have marketed themselves better, organized themselves better, and won better than they have over the last 10 years.  At no time have we seen the Redskins's popularity among the DC fan base as vulnerable as it is right now, and the financial numbers seem to indicate that is not some poetic musing.  It is a reality that the Redskins are losing their absolute rule over this area's fan base, and one championship from any of the other three teams could make this even more of a reality.