Do you remember the scene in Dumb and Dumber when Lloyd trades the dog truck for the mini scooter and sees Harry for the first time, and Harry has one of the greatest quote of the movie:
"Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this.............AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!
I think that is what Bruce Allen is thinking right now in his head, and it is possibly what Dan Snyder said to him when he heard that Allen had executed this trade. Allen is being excoriated on Twitter at the moment and for good reason. He gave up a 29 year old Kirk Cousins for four years of a now 33 year old Alex Smith at a cost of $94 million with $71 million guaranteed, our 2018 3rd Round Pick, and one of the best nickel corners of last season in Kendall Fuller. This is bad trade in that Allen gave up too much for an aging quarterback, and it torpedoed any leverage you had in moving Kirk Cousins. Smith still had one year left on his contract. Who was banging down the Chiefs door to get him, and if they were, why were we willing to give up Fuller for him? Allen could have played the game a little bit more to see what the Redskins could have received for Cousins. In my mind, anything over the compensatory pick we are going to get when Cousins walks would have been sufficient. And there in lies the problem. Trade value.
More than likely, any free agent quarterback would have cost just as much as Smith, and any rookie would be a step down in experience and maybe ability. The thing about this trade is we have a net loss of value in losing Fuller and our 3rd Rounder this year, and the repercussions of those losses will be felt in many ways this offseason. Let us go through all of the repercussions of this trade in the short term piece by piece.
Repercussion #1: The Redskins added to their draft needs
The Redskins willfully added a cornerback to the list of position needs. The coaching staff must be really higher on Quinton Dunbar and Fabian Moreau, but prudence dictates that they at least get someone to back them up in case they are not up Fuller's level at the nickel corner. And while we are on the subject of cornerbacks.........
Repercussion #2: The happiest person in Ashburn right now is Bashaud Breeland
Allen lost leverage in trading Kirk and in trying to resign Breeland. Josh Norman is the only proven starting corner on the roster right now, and with the loss of Fuller, Bashaud Breeland can now command a high price from the Redskins who have nothing they can counter with if Breeland threatens to leave if he does not get more money. Are you really comfortable going into the season with Quinton Dunbar as our #2 corner? Breeland is very happy right now.
Repercussion #3: Don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB.
The only thing more Redskins than unnecessarily trading for an aging quarterback is redundantly drafting one after they do so. With all of their needs on the offensive and defensive line, don't be surprised if the Redskins still draft a QB with one of their first three picks in the draft. Logic would dictate that they, more than likely, will not do it in the first round (but when has logic ever entered into the Redskins' decision making) which brings us to the next repercussion:
Repercussion #4: The Green Bay Packers will go broke on Etsy sending Bruce Allen gifts.
Assume that Baker Mayfield and/or Josh Allen sit at 13 when the Redskins are up. Teams now may be more unwilling to trade up because the Redskins now signed Smith, and it is easier to call the Redskins bluff that they will draft either of those quarterbacks. Maybe the Redskins will, but there is less of the uncertainty needed to drive those negotiations than there was before. And if they are there at 13 teams may be more willing to trade for the team who has the 14th pick. The Green Bay Packers. Don't be surprised if the Bills trade one of their first round picks to Green Bay in order to move up and get one of these QB's before Arizona does at 15. That could have been the Redskins, but that scenario is unlikely. And while we are on the subject of trading, the one possible positive repercussion surrounds trade value
Repercussion #5: Bruce Allen's one-outer is Denver.
The only positive bargaining chip Allen has left is with Denver. Numerous sources have linked Denver to Cousins over the past week. With Allen trading for Smith, it is an almost certainty that Cousins will hit free agency in March. Allen SHOULD be reminding the Broncos that the Jets have an offer sheet ready to go for Cousins that will outpace them in the short term. Allen's only card left is to possibly pull off a deal with Denver before Cousins hits free agency, because the Broncos know that they cannot offer as much as the Jets. If Allen can do this and get something comparable to what we gave up for Smith it will be a win, but do we believe that Allen has the bargaining acumen to pull this off?
These are the repercussions as I see them, and there are probably many more. It is not a total loss in acquiring Alex Smith, but for the actual and theoretical price we paid for him is not worth his services in the short term. Smith has always played with a chip on his shoulder ever since he was benched for Colin Kaepernick, so maybe he uses that to great success here in Washington and we forget about Kendall Fuller and the contract. And maybe Allen is playing a long game with the Broncos who want to prevent a bidding war for Cousins. Logic would dictate, though, that the repercussions of this trade put the Redskins is a worse place than where they starter. But when has logic ever entered the conversation regarding the Washington Redskins.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Sunday, January 28, 2018
Maryland Basketball's Future Is On the Line This Week
The fate of the Maryland Men's Basketball Program will be on the line this week as they face two Top 10 opponents in succession. The upcoming games against Michigan State and Purdue will give the NCAA Selection Committee a good idea about whether or not the Terps need to win out the rest of the season to have a chance at making their fourth straight NCAA appearance. But these next two games will have more far reaching ramifications for the program as Mark Turgeon navigates his seventh season in College Park. It is no secret that Turgeon has not delivered the wins against big time programs, but bad losses against these two teams could start to make the grass on the other side look just a little bit greener. Maryland's short term, and long term future, hang in the balance of these two games, and it begins with the Terps NCAA Tournament resume.
For those of you keeping score at home, Maryland's overall resume to make the Tournament this year does not look good so far. They have one win against the RPI Top 50 (Butler who is 31) and their next best RPI win has been against the mighty Bucknell Bison who are ranked 100. Maryland itself is only ranked 53 in the RPI, but these next two games could give them the quality win they need to bolster their resume and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Maryland could pull off an upset. Maryland was able to keep pace with Purdue, albeit at home and with Justin Jackson, and they traded punches with Michigan State without Jackson for the first fifteen minutes until Maryland went cold and Michigan State couldn't miss. One inspiring Turgeon speech could will the Terps past one of these teams over the next few days, and it is Mark Turgeon's coaching prowess that will be on trial over the next two games as it pertains to his tenure at the University of Maryland.
Turgeon's coaching acumen has been called into question over the past two weeks, which has exacerbated the call for his removal due to his lackluster performance against big time programs in big time situations. Turgeon has been chided for Maryland's performance at the end of the game against Indiana, and for not defending the inbound pass against Michigan when the Terps were up one point with 3.2 seconds left. The Michigan loss especially hurts because Turgeon's record against Top 25 teams has not been so glamorous. If the Terps had beaten Michigan it would have been the first time Turgeon had beaten a Top 25 team in a true road game since he came to College Park. In fact, Turgeon's only win against a Top 25 team on the road (not counting neutral site games) was against LSU on November 25, 2006. Couple that with the fact that Turgeon is 7-27 against Top 25 teams since he took the Maryland job, and there is reason to be concerned about the direction of the program in College Park outside of the worry that the Terps may miss the Tournament for the first time in four years. Terps fans, though, need to gain some perspective and look at another Maryland Legend's rise to the top in order to evaluate Turgeon's tenure.
Turgeon is in his seventh year at the University of Maryland, and yet by his seventh year, one Gary Williams was in a more precarious place than Turgeon. Gary had only made two tournaments in his 6 previous years, and he had losing records in two out of his first three seasons (the last losing seasons Maryland Basketball has had). In his sixth season, though, Joe Smith was named AP National Player of the Year and the Terps won the ACC Regular Season Championship. Things were looking up for Maryland Basketball despite Joe Smith being drafted number 1 overall in 1995. Gary would follow that season up with a first round exit from the Tournament in 1996 at the hands of Santa Clara, who was led at the time by a relatively unknown Steve Nash. If the man Terps fans venerate as much as Gary Williams can have a regression, then surely Mark Turgeon can as well, and Turgeon may outpace Gary in certain areas that should have Terps fans pining to keep him around for the long term. But it is the one area that Gary outpaces Turgeon that leaves the Maryland Nation insatitaed.
Mark Turgeon has extended his career at Maryland on the basis of recruiting hype, but he needs to take the next step if he is to stay in College Park. Turgeon has been able to acquire three ESPN Top 20 recruiting classes over the past six years, and his current class is ranked 10th with one 5-Star recruit in Jalen Smith. Gary was the opposite. Gary was ridiculed for recruiting a guy named Joe Smith, but he would go on to beat a Jerry Stackhouse/Rasheed Wallace led, number 1 ranked, North Carolina squad with some guy named Joe Smith as his star player. Turgeon has not been able to translate his recruiting talents into any success against top teams that Gary did, but that could change within the next week. The games against Michigan State and Purdue could give Turgeon the signature win he needs to validate all of his recruiting success during his time at Maryland. Two bad losses, i.e. losses of 20 points or more, may begin the talks of removing Turgeon from his coaching responsibilities.
Turgeon's tenure, more than likely, automatically extends through next season. Justin Jackson's injury ensures his return for next season, and with the recruits coming in for next season Turgeon deserves at least one more year to prove himself. But two more bad losses to Top 25 teams will dictate just how much time Turgeon will be given to right the ship in College Park. Terps fans would be wise to realize, however, that after winning a Conference Championship with a National Player of the Year, Gary Williams was exited in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turgeon has been able to attract high level recruits in a more competitive marketplace, and although his recruiting may not have translated into long term success, Turgeon deserves more time at Maryland for finally bringing a proven recruiter to College Park. If he cannot deliver a win over the next two games, though, he may be looking for a new job sooner than he thinks.
For those of you keeping score at home, Maryland's overall resume to make the Tournament this year does not look good so far. They have one win against the RPI Top 50 (Butler who is 31) and their next best RPI win has been against the mighty Bucknell Bison who are ranked 100. Maryland itself is only ranked 53 in the RPI, but these next two games could give them the quality win they need to bolster their resume and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Maryland could pull off an upset. Maryland was able to keep pace with Purdue, albeit at home and with Justin Jackson, and they traded punches with Michigan State without Jackson for the first fifteen minutes until Maryland went cold and Michigan State couldn't miss. One inspiring Turgeon speech could will the Terps past one of these teams over the next few days, and it is Mark Turgeon's coaching prowess that will be on trial over the next two games as it pertains to his tenure at the University of Maryland.
Turgeon's coaching acumen has been called into question over the past two weeks, which has exacerbated the call for his removal due to his lackluster performance against big time programs in big time situations. Turgeon has been chided for Maryland's performance at the end of the game against Indiana, and for not defending the inbound pass against Michigan when the Terps were up one point with 3.2 seconds left. The Michigan loss especially hurts because Turgeon's record against Top 25 teams has not been so glamorous. If the Terps had beaten Michigan it would have been the first time Turgeon had beaten a Top 25 team in a true road game since he came to College Park. In fact, Turgeon's only win against a Top 25 team on the road (not counting neutral site games) was against LSU on November 25, 2006. Couple that with the fact that Turgeon is 7-27 against Top 25 teams since he took the Maryland job, and there is reason to be concerned about the direction of the program in College Park outside of the worry that the Terps may miss the Tournament for the first time in four years. Terps fans, though, need to gain some perspective and look at another Maryland Legend's rise to the top in order to evaluate Turgeon's tenure.
Turgeon is in his seventh year at the University of Maryland, and yet by his seventh year, one Gary Williams was in a more precarious place than Turgeon. Gary had only made two tournaments in his 6 previous years, and he had losing records in two out of his first three seasons (the last losing seasons Maryland Basketball has had). In his sixth season, though, Joe Smith was named AP National Player of the Year and the Terps won the ACC Regular Season Championship. Things were looking up for Maryland Basketball despite Joe Smith being drafted number 1 overall in 1995. Gary would follow that season up with a first round exit from the Tournament in 1996 at the hands of Santa Clara, who was led at the time by a relatively unknown Steve Nash. If the man Terps fans venerate as much as Gary Williams can have a regression, then surely Mark Turgeon can as well, and Turgeon may outpace Gary in certain areas that should have Terps fans pining to keep him around for the long term. But it is the one area that Gary outpaces Turgeon that leaves the Maryland Nation insatitaed.
Mark Turgeon has extended his career at Maryland on the basis of recruiting hype, but he needs to take the next step if he is to stay in College Park. Turgeon has been able to acquire three ESPN Top 20 recruiting classes over the past six years, and his current class is ranked 10th with one 5-Star recruit in Jalen Smith. Gary was the opposite. Gary was ridiculed for recruiting a guy named Joe Smith, but he would go on to beat a Jerry Stackhouse/Rasheed Wallace led, number 1 ranked, North Carolina squad with some guy named Joe Smith as his star player. Turgeon has not been able to translate his recruiting talents into any success against top teams that Gary did, but that could change within the next week. The games against Michigan State and Purdue could give Turgeon the signature win he needs to validate all of his recruiting success during his time at Maryland. Two bad losses, i.e. losses of 20 points or more, may begin the talks of removing Turgeon from his coaching responsibilities.
Turgeon's tenure, more than likely, automatically extends through next season. Justin Jackson's injury ensures his return for next season, and with the recruits coming in for next season Turgeon deserves at least one more year to prove himself. But two more bad losses to Top 25 teams will dictate just how much time Turgeon will be given to right the ship in College Park. Terps fans would be wise to realize, however, that after winning a Conference Championship with a National Player of the Year, Gary Williams was exited in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turgeon has been able to attract high level recruits in a more competitive marketplace, and although his recruiting may not have translated into long term success, Turgeon deserves more time at Maryland for finally bringing a proven recruiter to College Park. If he cannot deliver a win over the next two games, though, he may be looking for a new job sooner than he thinks.
Sunday, January 7, 2018
The Redskins Have No Choice But to Keep Cousins
The Redskins have put themselves in a position where they have no choice but to keep Kirk Cousins, even if that means putting the franchise tag on him for next year. Despite Jay Gruden's lukewarm endorsement of Cousins at his end of the year press conference, the Redskins need to see that Cousins has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past three seasons and that there is no other alternative out there that can readily replace Cousins's production on the field. There are those who follow the usual banal talking points that boil Kirk's performance down to the notion that his stats are pedestrian and that we can easily replace him with someone who can take this franchise to the next level. A look at Cousins's stats over the past three seasons compared to his fellow quarterbacks, however, shows that Cousins excels in numerous areas given his situation, and the Redskins should see that trying to replace that production may be harrowing at best.
For this analysis, Cousins's stats are compared to only those quarterbacks who have had 40 or more starts over the past three seasons, plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39. That does limit comparison to players like Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff, but their sample sizes are too small to make a fair comparison, and it is better to compare Cousins to the elite quarterbacks who have sustained their play for a longer period of time. There are 19 of those quarterbacks, including Cousins, who have made 40 or more starts since 2015 (plus Aaron Rodgers with 39 starts), and it is that list of quarterbacks we will be comparing Cousins to in order to show how good he has been over the past three seasons. Here is the list of quarterbacks who have made 40 or more starts since 2015, with the number of starts they have had in parentheses: (Note: all stats obtained from profootballreference.com, and all stats given are totals since 2015)
Kirk Cousins (48), Phillip Rivers (48), Drew Brees (47), Tom Brady (44), Matt Ryan (48), Matt Stafford (48), Eli Manning (47), Blake Bortles (48), Derek Carr (46), Aaron Rodgers (39), Cam Newton (46), Jameis Winston (45), Russel Wilson (48), Alex Smith (46), Ben Roethlisberger (40), Joe Flacco (42), Andy Dalton (45), Tyrod Taylor (43), Marcus Mariota (42).
As can be noted by the bold numbers above, Cousins is one of six quarterbacks to have started every single game since 2015. So has Blake Bortles, though, so a further analysis of Cousins's worth needs to be presented. I choose to do this by addressing some of the asinine statements that the Anti-Cousins camp brings up to justify not signing Kirk Cousins to a long term contract. Let's start by presenting an argument aimed at taking down one of Cousins's strengths
Sure, Kirk has a great completion percentage because he checks down and refuses to go down field.
It is true. Out of this group of quarterbacks, Cousins is 2nd in completion percentage (67.02%) only behind Drew Brees. Cousins has been highly accurate, but to say that he throws the easier passes is a misnomer based on his yards per attempt and yards per completion over the past three seasons. His yards per attempt (7.8) is equal to that of Brees and Brady, and his yards per completion (11.6) is third highest among the quarterbacks who had over 1100 completions during this time frame. Cousins is throwing his passes as deep as some of the best in the game, and he is completing them at a distance that is equal to the elite quarterbacks in the league. The fact that he is completing these passes at a higher rate than anyone but Drew Brees should show the Redskins that he is worth a long term contract. But wait, the Anti-Cousins League has another bone to pick with giving Kirk that kind of money...
OK, so he is accurate, but Cousins just doesn't put up the big stats...like yards.
The Cousins doubters maybe surprised to know that the only quarterbacks out of this group to throw for more yards than Cousins are Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Ryan in that order. Cousins has thrown for 13,176 yards over the past three seasons, and he has shown that he is able to eclipse 4,000 yards this season with a mostly new receiving corps and a patchwork offensive line. Also factor in the average amount of yardage thrown by these 19 quarterbacks over the past three seasons is 11,172 yards, and you can see that Cousins is well above average.
Fine, but those yards don't translate into points...i.e. Touchdowns.
This statement depends on how you want to evaluate Cousins's performance. Yes, Cousins has only thrown for 81 TD's over the past three seasons (good for 8th out of the list above) and he has never thrown for 30 or more TD's in any one season. But there is a surprising stat that elevates Cousins's game when you factor in rushing touchdowns. Cousins has 13 rushing TD's over the past three seasons. The only other quarterbacks to have more are Cam Newton (21) and Tyrod Taylor (14). When you combine the rushing touchdowns with passing touchdowns, Cousins has accounted for 94 TD's over the past three seasons. That is tied with Russell Wilson for 3rd over that time frame. The only people ahead of him are Brady (99), Brees (97), and Newton (97). Think about that. Cousins has accounted for more TD's over the past three seasons than Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom you would elevate over Cousins without thinking about it.
Right, because those quarterbacks win games. Close games. Big Games. Cousins cannot and has not done that.
Let's dissect this argument as it pertains to Cousins by looking at overall regular season wins over the past three seasons. Since 2015 Kirk Cousins has won 24 regular season games, which is slightly above the average of 23 for this group. But Cousins needs to be averaging 10 wins a year to be considered elite enough for a large contract. Right? That would add up to 30+ wins over three years, yet there are only three quarterbacks out of this group who have won 30 or more regular season games since 2015. Tom Brady (36). Cam Newton (32). And......................you guessed it.....Alex Smith (31). Weird, right? Brady is the best quarterback of all time, but would you automatically call Cam Newton elite, or just a winner because he has a great team around him? And what do you call Alex Smith, lucky? It is clear that a quarterback can win a lot of games if the right team is around them, and for Cousins he has not had that since he has been a starter.
Much has been made about the Redskins defense and running game being sub par this season, and that Cousins has achieved in spite of this. Looking back at the last three seasons the story is much worse. Since 2015 Cousins has won 24 games despite being one of only three quarterbacks to never have had a top 10 rushing offense or defense to support them. The other two are Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. Also, Cousins is one of four quarterbacks to have only one season (2016 where the Redskins inexplicably averaged 106 rushing yards per game) where his rushing offense averaged over 100 yards or his defense averaged below 20 point per game. The other three quarterbacks are Phillip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Matt Stafford. None of these quarterbacks have won more than 25 games since 2015, so Cousins's total wins are on par with what one would expect with the supporting cast he has been given. And for all the knocks on Cousins, he has been able to win close games.
It may be surprising to know that Cousins has 11 wins where he led the Redskins on a 4th quarter drive that put them ahead for the last time in the game. Only Derek Carr and Matt Stafford have more of those wins than Cousins, and ironically Stafford has one against the Redskins. This shows that Cousins has the mettle to win tight games, and he had chances to show that this season in the games against Kansas City and Seattle. Yes, Cousins has shown a propensity for losing in big game situations, and it has been particularly acute over the past two seasons. But these stats show that he is among the elite quarterbacks over the past three seasons, and the question is, if not Cousins then who?
The Redskins have no choice but to keep Cousins because of his stats and the talent that is out there as replacements. Out of the 19 quarterbacks listed above only Drew Brees will be a UFA this offseason and the Saints will probably keep him. But maybe Case Keenum did not need the best defense in the NFL this year to put up those stats. Maybe Teddy Bridgewater can end his 2 year medical sabbatical in DC. I'm sure Jay Cutler would like to avoid real life for one more year, and Sam Bradford could blow his knee out in a new city. The rest of the gems on the 2018 Free Agent market are not worth noting, but we would probably be in rebuilding mode and looking to draft someone for the future. Maybe Baker Mayfield can grab his junk for the FedEx Faithful and run for more than 13 touchdowns. Maybe Luke Falk can throw for 4,000 yards in the next four years. Maybe Dan Snyder can end his Robert Griffin withdrawal and draft Lamar Jackson. Maybe playing New Mexico every year prepared Josh Allen to lead a 4th quarter comeback in the NFL. But all of these maybe's go to the fact that the Redskins have no choice. There are no maybe's with Kirk Cousins. He has proven himself at the highest level to be able to contend with the best this league has to offer, and there are no choices involved with the Redskins other than keeping Kirk Cousins in DC.
For this analysis, Cousins's stats are compared to only those quarterbacks who have had 40 or more starts over the past three seasons, plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39. That does limit comparison to players like Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff, but their sample sizes are too small to make a fair comparison, and it is better to compare Cousins to the elite quarterbacks who have sustained their play for a longer period of time. There are 19 of those quarterbacks, including Cousins, who have made 40 or more starts since 2015 (plus Aaron Rodgers with 39 starts), and it is that list of quarterbacks we will be comparing Cousins to in order to show how good he has been over the past three seasons. Here is the list of quarterbacks who have made 40 or more starts since 2015, with the number of starts they have had in parentheses: (Note: all stats obtained from profootballreference.com, and all stats given are totals since 2015)
Kirk Cousins (48), Phillip Rivers (48), Drew Brees (47), Tom Brady (44), Matt Ryan (48), Matt Stafford (48), Eli Manning (47), Blake Bortles (48), Derek Carr (46), Aaron Rodgers (39), Cam Newton (46), Jameis Winston (45), Russel Wilson (48), Alex Smith (46), Ben Roethlisberger (40), Joe Flacco (42), Andy Dalton (45), Tyrod Taylor (43), Marcus Mariota (42).
As can be noted by the bold numbers above, Cousins is one of six quarterbacks to have started every single game since 2015. So has Blake Bortles, though, so a further analysis of Cousins's worth needs to be presented. I choose to do this by addressing some of the asinine statements that the Anti-Cousins camp brings up to justify not signing Kirk Cousins to a long term contract. Let's start by presenting an argument aimed at taking down one of Cousins's strengths
Sure, Kirk has a great completion percentage because he checks down and refuses to go down field.
It is true. Out of this group of quarterbacks, Cousins is 2nd in completion percentage (67.02%) only behind Drew Brees. Cousins has been highly accurate, but to say that he throws the easier passes is a misnomer based on his yards per attempt and yards per completion over the past three seasons. His yards per attempt (7.8) is equal to that of Brees and Brady, and his yards per completion (11.6) is third highest among the quarterbacks who had over 1100 completions during this time frame. Cousins is throwing his passes as deep as some of the best in the game, and he is completing them at a distance that is equal to the elite quarterbacks in the league. The fact that he is completing these passes at a higher rate than anyone but Drew Brees should show the Redskins that he is worth a long term contract. But wait, the Anti-Cousins League has another bone to pick with giving Kirk that kind of money...
OK, so he is accurate, but Cousins just doesn't put up the big stats...like yards.
The Cousins doubters maybe surprised to know that the only quarterbacks out of this group to throw for more yards than Cousins are Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Ryan in that order. Cousins has thrown for 13,176 yards over the past three seasons, and he has shown that he is able to eclipse 4,000 yards this season with a mostly new receiving corps and a patchwork offensive line. Also factor in the average amount of yardage thrown by these 19 quarterbacks over the past three seasons is 11,172 yards, and you can see that Cousins is well above average.
Fine, but those yards don't translate into points...i.e. Touchdowns.
This statement depends on how you want to evaluate Cousins's performance. Yes, Cousins has only thrown for 81 TD's over the past three seasons (good for 8th out of the list above) and he has never thrown for 30 or more TD's in any one season. But there is a surprising stat that elevates Cousins's game when you factor in rushing touchdowns. Cousins has 13 rushing TD's over the past three seasons. The only other quarterbacks to have more are Cam Newton (21) and Tyrod Taylor (14). When you combine the rushing touchdowns with passing touchdowns, Cousins has accounted for 94 TD's over the past three seasons. That is tied with Russell Wilson for 3rd over that time frame. The only people ahead of him are Brady (99), Brees (97), and Newton (97). Think about that. Cousins has accounted for more TD's over the past three seasons than Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom you would elevate over Cousins without thinking about it.
Right, because those quarterbacks win games. Close games. Big Games. Cousins cannot and has not done that.
Let's dissect this argument as it pertains to Cousins by looking at overall regular season wins over the past three seasons. Since 2015 Kirk Cousins has won 24 regular season games, which is slightly above the average of 23 for this group. But Cousins needs to be averaging 10 wins a year to be considered elite enough for a large contract. Right? That would add up to 30+ wins over three years, yet there are only three quarterbacks out of this group who have won 30 or more regular season games since 2015. Tom Brady (36). Cam Newton (32). And......................you guessed it.....Alex Smith (31). Weird, right? Brady is the best quarterback of all time, but would you automatically call Cam Newton elite, or just a winner because he has a great team around him? And what do you call Alex Smith, lucky? It is clear that a quarterback can win a lot of games if the right team is around them, and for Cousins he has not had that since he has been a starter.
Much has been made about the Redskins defense and running game being sub par this season, and that Cousins has achieved in spite of this. Looking back at the last three seasons the story is much worse. Since 2015 Cousins has won 24 games despite being one of only three quarterbacks to never have had a top 10 rushing offense or defense to support them. The other two are Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. Also, Cousins is one of four quarterbacks to have only one season (2016 where the Redskins inexplicably averaged 106 rushing yards per game) where his rushing offense averaged over 100 yards or his defense averaged below 20 point per game. The other three quarterbacks are Phillip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Matt Stafford. None of these quarterbacks have won more than 25 games since 2015, so Cousins's total wins are on par with what one would expect with the supporting cast he has been given. And for all the knocks on Cousins, he has been able to win close games.
It may be surprising to know that Cousins has 11 wins where he led the Redskins on a 4th quarter drive that put them ahead for the last time in the game. Only Derek Carr and Matt Stafford have more of those wins than Cousins, and ironically Stafford has one against the Redskins. This shows that Cousins has the mettle to win tight games, and he had chances to show that this season in the games against Kansas City and Seattle. Yes, Cousins has shown a propensity for losing in big game situations, and it has been particularly acute over the past two seasons. But these stats show that he is among the elite quarterbacks over the past three seasons, and the question is, if not Cousins then who?
The Redskins have no choice but to keep Cousins because of his stats and the talent that is out there as replacements. Out of the 19 quarterbacks listed above only Drew Brees will be a UFA this offseason and the Saints will probably keep him. But maybe Case Keenum did not need the best defense in the NFL this year to put up those stats. Maybe Teddy Bridgewater can end his 2 year medical sabbatical in DC. I'm sure Jay Cutler would like to avoid real life for one more year, and Sam Bradford could blow his knee out in a new city. The rest of the gems on the 2018 Free Agent market are not worth noting, but we would probably be in rebuilding mode and looking to draft someone for the future. Maybe Baker Mayfield can grab his junk for the FedEx Faithful and run for more than 13 touchdowns. Maybe Luke Falk can throw for 4,000 yards in the next four years. Maybe Dan Snyder can end his Robert Griffin withdrawal and draft Lamar Jackson. Maybe playing New Mexico every year prepared Josh Allen to lead a 4th quarter comeback in the NFL. But all of these maybe's go to the fact that the Redskins have no choice. There are no maybe's with Kirk Cousins. He has proven himself at the highest level to be able to contend with the best this league has to offer, and there are no choices involved with the Redskins other than keeping Kirk Cousins in DC.
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