The Redskins Have No Choice But to Keep Cousins

The Redskins have put themselves in a position where they have no choice but to keep Kirk Cousins, even if that means putting the franchise tag on him for next year.  Despite Jay Gruden's lukewarm endorsement of Cousins at his end of the year press conference, the Redskins need to see that Cousins has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past three seasons and that there is no other alternative out there that can readily replace Cousins's production on the field.  There are those who follow the usual banal talking points that boil Kirk's performance down to the notion that his stats are pedestrian and that we can easily replace him with someone who can take this franchise to the next level.  A look at Cousins's stats over the past three seasons compared to his fellow quarterbacks, however, shows that Cousins excels in numerous areas given his situation, and the Redskins should see that trying to replace that production may be harrowing at best.

For this analysis, Cousins's stats are compared to only those quarterbacks who have had 40 or more starts over the past three seasons, plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39.  That does limit comparison to players like Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff, but their sample sizes are too small to make a fair comparison, and it is better to compare Cousins to the elite quarterbacks who have sustained their play for a longer period of time.  There are 19 of those quarterbacks, including Cousins, who have made 40 or more starts since 2015 (plus Aaron Rodgers with 39 starts), and it is that list of quarterbacks we will be comparing Cousins to in order to show how good he has been over the past three seasons.  Here is the list of quarterbacks who have made 40 or more starts since 2015, with the number of starts they have had in parentheses: (Note: all stats obtained from profootballreference.com, and all stats given are totals since 2015)

Kirk Cousins (48), Phillip Rivers (48), Drew Brees (47), Tom Brady (44), Matt Ryan (48), Matt Stafford (48), Eli Manning (47), Blake Bortles (48), Derek Carr (46), Aaron Rodgers (39), Cam Newton (46), Jameis Winston (45), Russel Wilson (48), Alex Smith (46), Ben Roethlisberger (40), Joe Flacco (42), Andy Dalton (45), Tyrod Taylor (43), Marcus Mariota (42).

As can be noted by the bold numbers above, Cousins is one of six quarterbacks to have started every single game since 2015.  So has Blake Bortles, though, so a further analysis of Cousins's worth needs to be presented.  I choose to do this by addressing some of the asinine statements that the Anti-Cousins camp brings up to justify not signing Kirk Cousins to a long term contract.  Let's start by presenting an argument aimed at taking down one of Cousins's strengths

Sure, Kirk has a great completion percentage because he checks down and refuses to go down field.

It is true.  Out of this group of quarterbacks, Cousins is 2nd in completion percentage (67.02%) only behind Drew Brees.  Cousins has been highly accurate, but to say that he throws the easier passes is a misnomer based on his yards per attempt and yards per completion over the past three seasons.  His yards per attempt (7.8) is equal to that of Brees and Brady, and his yards per completion (11.6) is third highest among the quarterbacks who had over 1100 completions during this time frame.  Cousins is throwing his passes as deep as some of the best in the game, and he is completing them at a distance that is equal to the elite quarterbacks in the league.  The fact that he is completing these passes at a higher rate than anyone but Drew Brees should show the Redskins that he is worth a long term contract.  But wait, the Anti-Cousins League has another bone to pick with giving Kirk that kind of money...

OK, so he is accurate, but Cousins just doesn't put up the big stats...like yards.

The Cousins doubters maybe surprised to know that the only quarterbacks out of this group to throw for more yards than Cousins are Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Ryan in that order.  Cousins has thrown for 13,176 yards over the past three seasons, and he has shown that he is able to eclipse 4,000 yards this season with a mostly new receiving corps and a patchwork offensive line.  Also factor in the average amount of yardage thrown by these 19 quarterbacks over the past three seasons is 11,172 yards, and you can see that Cousins is well above average.

Fine, but those yards don't translate into points...i.e. Touchdowns.

This statement depends on how you want to evaluate Cousins's performance.  Yes, Cousins has only thrown for 81 TD's over the past three seasons (good for 8th out of the list above) and he has never thrown for 30 or more TD's in any one season.  But there is a surprising stat that elevates Cousins's game when you factor in rushing touchdowns.  Cousins has 13 rushing TD's over the past three seasons.  The only other quarterbacks to have more are Cam Newton (21) and Tyrod Taylor (14).  When you combine the rushing touchdowns with passing touchdowns, Cousins has accounted for 94 TD's over the past three seasons.  That is tied with Russell Wilson for 3rd over that time frame.  The only people ahead of him are Brady (99), Brees (97), and Newton (97).  Think about that.  Cousins has accounted for more TD's over the past three seasons than Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom you would elevate over Cousins without thinking about it.

Right, because those quarterbacks win games.  Close games.  Big Games.  Cousins cannot and has not done that.

Let's dissect this argument as it pertains to Cousins by looking at overall regular season wins over the past three seasons.  Since 2015 Kirk Cousins has won 24 regular season games, which is slightly above the average of 23 for this group.  But Cousins needs to be averaging 10 wins a year to be considered elite enough for a large contract.  Right?  That would add up to 30+ wins over three years, yet there are only three quarterbacks out of this group who have won 30 or more regular season games since 2015.  Tom Brady (36).  Cam Newton (32).  And......................you guessed it.....Alex Smith (31).  Weird, right?  Brady is the best quarterback of all time, but would you automatically call Cam Newton elite, or just a winner because he has a great team around him?  And what do you call Alex Smith, lucky?  It is clear that a quarterback can win a lot of games if the right team is around them, and for Cousins he has not had that since he has been a starter.

Much has been made about the Redskins defense and running game being sub par this season, and that Cousins has achieved in spite of this.  Looking back at the last three seasons the story is much worse.  Since 2015 Cousins has won 24 games despite being one of only three quarterbacks to never have had a top 10 rushing offense or defense to support them.  The other two are Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.  Also, Cousins is one of four quarterbacks to have only one season (2016 where the Redskins inexplicably averaged 106 rushing yards per game) where his rushing offense averaged over 100 yards or his defense averaged below 20 point per game.  The other three quarterbacks are Phillip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Matt Stafford.  None of these quarterbacks have won more than 25 games since 2015, so Cousins's total wins are on par with what one would expect with the supporting cast he has been given.  And for all the knocks on Cousins, he has been able to win close games.

It may be surprising to know that Cousins has 11 wins where he led the Redskins on a 4th quarter drive that put them ahead for the last time in the game.  Only Derek Carr and Matt Stafford have more of those wins than Cousins, and ironically Stafford has one against the Redskins.  This shows that Cousins has the mettle to win tight games, and he had chances to show that this season in the games against Kansas City and Seattle.  Yes, Cousins has shown a propensity for losing in big game situations, and it has been particularly acute over the past two seasons.  But these stats show that he is among the elite quarterbacks over the past three seasons, and the question is, if not Cousins then who?

The Redskins have no choice but to keep Cousins because of his stats and the talent that is out there as replacements.  Out of the 19 quarterbacks listed above only Drew Brees will be a UFA this offseason and the Saints will probably keep him. But maybe Case Keenum did not need the best defense in the NFL this year to put up those stats.  Maybe Teddy Bridgewater can end his 2 year medical sabbatical in DC.  I'm sure Jay Cutler would like to avoid real life for one more year, and Sam Bradford could blow his knee out in a new city.  The rest of the gems on the 2018 Free Agent market are not worth noting, but we would probably be in rebuilding mode and looking to draft someone for the future.  Maybe Baker Mayfield can grab his junk for the FedEx Faithful and run for more than 13 touchdowns.  Maybe Luke Falk can throw for 4,000 yards in the next four years.  Maybe Dan Snyder can end his Robert Griffin withdrawal and draft Lamar Jackson.  Maybe playing New Mexico every year prepared Josh Allen to lead a 4th quarter comeback in the NFL.  But all of these maybe's go to the fact that the Redskins have no choice.  There are no maybe's with Kirk Cousins.  He has proven himself at the highest level to be able to contend with the best this league has to offer, and there are no choices involved with the Redskins other than keeping Kirk Cousins in DC.