A Rivalry Rexamined: Crosby vs. Ovechkin

Washington Sports Fans may have neglected to notice that the best team in the NHL's Eastern Conference currently resides at the Verizon Center.  The Capitals are dominating their opponents this season with the newly acquired talent of players like TJ Oshie and Justin Williams, but the one constant on this team that continues to lead them to success is Alex Ovechkin.  While Ovechkin is not the omnipotent force he was early in his career, the Russian Machine has been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons into a sharp shooting opportunist who is scoring goals on more than just breakaways, powerful one timers, and toe drag moves.  Ovechkin has been able to evolve into a player who can score from close in or on rebounds and help out on the back check, which has put him in the top ten in plus/minus so far this season.  It is this evolution that has put the Capitals a top the Eastern Conference, and it should be reviving an old argument for Capital fans based on what is happening with Ovechkin's long time nemesis. 
In Western Pennsylvania, the Penguins and their captain are having somewhat of a different type of season.  The Penguins find themselves fifth in the Metropolitan Division and Sidney Crosby is not exactly having the best of seasons so far.  The normally surgical tactician has only 24 points (7 goals/17 assists) and is a -5, which should be bringing the argument of Crosby vs. Ovechkin back into the NHL consciousness if these season trends continue for both players. There is no question that right now Crosby's Stanley Cup Championship and two Gold Medals outpace Ovechkin's superior individual accomplishments, but Crosby's lackluster season so far begins to beg the question of longevity.  What happens if Crosby's production continues to wane and Ovechkin can continue to be a top 10 goal scorer for that same period of time? 

Ovechkin had his dip in production from 2010-2012 where people were asking if Ovechkin's time as a dominant goal scorer was over.  He responded with three straight Rocket Richard Trophies and has vaulted himself back into the NHL's elite.  The difference with Sidney Crosby is that he has already had a decline in production in his career.  From 2010-2013 Crosby only played in 99 games due to injury, and his overall stats subsequently took a hit.  It is scary to think of what Crosby's career numbers would be had he been able to play more over those three seasons, and he did come back to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) in 2013-2014, but another statistical dud from Crosby sans injury could begin to swing the argument back in Ovechkin's favor if Ovechkin is able to continue to be productive.  Fifty goal scorers are not common at Ovechkin's age, and if Ovechkin can score 50 even one more time it may add the dimension of prolonged success to this argument that could offset some of the significance of the championships that Crosby has won.
Wherever a current hypothetical scenario can take this argument, the current reality is that Crosby is on top due to the championships he has won with the Penguins and Team Canada.  But up until this year it almost seemed a forgone conclusion that Ovechkin would need to win a Stanley Cup before this rivalry could be revived.  Looking at the season that Crosby is having now may counter that sentiment by seeing how well each player can end their career.  If Crosby ends his career with only second/third line center production, and if Ovechkin can do what only 8 players have done in NHL history (score 50 goals after age 30) and continue to be a legit first line winger for the next three to five years, it may give Ovechkin an edge over Crosby in terms of longevity.  And if the Capitals can do what some people say they should do this year, it will vault Ovechkin over his longtime nemesis and revive a rivalry that has lain dormant for the past five years.


Redskins vs. Eagles 2: The Showcase Showdown

 

Kirk.......Cousins! Come on Down! You're the next contestant on The Price is Right for a Quarterback Who is Improving Through A Season to the Point of Leading the League in Some Statistical Categories, But Not the Categories That Drive High Contract Prices, But Gets You In the Position for the Playoffs That You Were Not Expecting So You Have to Pay Him or Else He'll Go Somewhere Else That Will Pay Him That Much Money And Psychologically You Will Not Be Able to Deal With That Kind Of Rejection.  That's not too long of a title for a game show, right? I'll also lay the rhetoric on thick by asking the question; Doesn't this weekend's game between the Eagles and the Redskins seem like one of those bad endings to The Price is Right?  Two people at the end of the show who beat out the old lady at the wheel who everyone was pulling for (the Dallas Cowboys) all just to get a shot at 2 jet skis or a trip to the Grand Canyon. It does.  All except for the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing for a contract.  If you believe the canon being spewed out by the powers that be, Cousins will be back in DC regardless of the outcome of this season.  The question is price.  The Redskins have the first bid in this Showcase Showdown, and if they beat the Eagles on Saturday Night you can believe that Cousins will fetch north of $20 Million per year solely on the fact that another team (Cleveland, Houston, St. Louis) will pay that much for his services.  But if the Redskins balk at the jet skies because it is highly regulated on the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay, it leaves room for the Eagles to swoop in and rain on Kirk Cousins' $20 Million Dollar Parade.  Here is what the Redskins need to do to ensure that they secure their first playoff berth in three years:

Nail Jell-O to the Wall: The Redskins running attack has gone through peaks and valleys this season.  Their run game has come under specific fire after the Rams game in Week 2 for not being dynamic enough, but in all of The Redskins' last four wins they have been able to amass at least 99 yards of rushing or more.  The first war on record where the casualties from combat outnumbered the casualties from disease and famine was the Russo-Japanese War of the early 20th Century.  Why?   Because the combat code of the Japanese (the Bushido) called for Japanese soldiers to have honor and die in combat so they would keep charging the Russians until they all died or they won. The Redskins would do well to heed this "stick to your solution at all costs" mentality as the running game can open up the passing game.  Keeping the down and distance manageable and continually coming at your opponent with the same tactics regardless of outcome or success will lead to a degradation of the Eagles' will.  The Redskins need to run the football, regardless of their yards per carry average.  Alfred Morris and Matt Jones will provide enough  support so that all other parts of the team will be able to function.  The one area where the Redskins outstrip the Eagles statistically is in time of possession.  Feed the ball to Morris and Jones on first and second down and good things will happen.  The Redskins will possess the ball and keep the Eagles in a constant stat of panic. This will only work if the Defense does its' job.

Limit Big Plays: Listen to these statistical anomalies.  1) The Redskins' Defense is giving up a higher yards per completion rate than the Eagles, but they are giving up a lower yards per game rate than the Eagles.  2)  The Eagles' passing yards per attempt is 0.6 yards less than the Redskins 3)  The Redskins are giving up more yards per attempt than yards per game in the running attack than the Eagles. Translation?  The Redskins give up big plays.  Look no further than last week where the Bills hit on two plays of 40 yards or more in the second half to make a game of what was otherwise a rout conducted by both the Redskins' offense and defense.  Also, the Eagles relied on two plays of 39 yards or more to keep pace with the Redskins in their first meeting of the season.  If the Redskins expect to win they will need to limit the pays of 40 yards or more, and have their defense pester Sam Bradford into turning the ball over  a whopping 15.2%, which is good for 5th highest TO% in the league.  Otherwise, the Eagles and Redskins seem evenly matched and it will come down to a matter of wills.

Win and You're In:  The narrative all throughout the preseason was how the Redskins need to rebuild, with very few people touting the talent that the Redskins compiled in the offseason (all of it is good, but read the last paragraph).  Now we find ourselves bidding first in a Showcase Showdown for the NFC East Title, in a venue and a timeslot that has not been hospitable to us in the past.  The last time the Redskins won at Lincoln Financial Field was with Robert Griffin in 2012, and we do not need to rehash the Redskins' impotence once the sun goes down.  But four months ago we were saying that six wins would be a successful season.  The Redskins have eclipsed that mark and now are one win away from making it to the playoffs.  It will not be easy against the Eagles, and I see a back and forth game for the first half.  But the Redskins' offense will prove too much to deal with, and the Redskins pass rush will eventually wear down Sam Bradford to the point of him making some costly mistakes in the second half.  Get ready HTTR nation.  We will not have to wait another decade to see a home playoff game.

Redskins Win: 30-21

Redskins vs. Bills: A Game of Unexpected Significance

When the 2015 NFL Schedule was released on April 23, anyone who was not a patient at St. Elizabeth's Hospital probably reacted to the announcement that the Redskins would play the Bills on December 20 the same way The Dude reacted to the Sheriff of Malibu.  I guess John Hinckley gets the last laugh now as the Bills come to town on Sunday with a nothing to lose attitude spiced up by that sliver of playoff hope the experts dub "not mathematically eliminated", while the Redskins come into this game with more to play for than anyone in HTTR nation could have expected seven months ago.  The most notable of these unexpected gems is a chance at the playoffs, but there are fringe story lines that will play a big part in the narrative on Sunday.  First, the Redskins have the opportunity to finish with their best home record since 2005.  There has not been much to cheer for at FedEx Field over the past decade, but the last two years in particular have exponentially exacerbated the jaded feeling Redskins fans get when they know that four hours of their Sunday will be spent in traffic on I-495 just to see their favorite team lose.  This season has been a godsend for Redskins fans who want to see their team win at home and win when there are playoff implications on the line.  Finally, the Sports Junkies reminded me on Friday morning that this could possibly be the last home game for Robert Griffin as a Redskin.  Barring any crazy finish to the season, one can assume that Dan Snyder will want to save his $16 Million and let Robert Griffin walk at the end of this season.  That means that Griffin's last home game in DC will be spent in street clothes.  A far cry from three years ago where he was being heralded as the savior of this franchise, and now he must watch helplessly as the Cain to his Abel leads the Redskins to a possible playoff berth. The Bills will not be an easy out, though, so here is what the Redskins should be focusing on to continue their playoff run:

Beware the Read Option: The Redskins will face an all too familiar foe this Sunday in LeSean McCoy, but they have never faced him with a quarterbacking counterpart as versatile as Tyrod Taylor.  Buffalo boasts the third best rushing yards per game (141.8) and per rushing attempt (4.7) in the league so far, while the Redskins' defense is giving up the fourth worst yards per attempt in the league (4.6).  To make matters worse, the Redskins have traditionally done a poor job of defending the read option.  That was on display last week where 55 of Chicago's 87 rushing yards came in the second half when the Bears started to run a more read option style running attack, and no one is really worried that Jay Cutler is going to burn you for big yardage on the ground.  But McCoy and Taylor can, so guys like Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy need to be disciplined enough to not over pursue and keep the running attack contained, and guys like Will Compton and Perry Riley need to be good about wrapping up and not getting out of position. Otherwise we may see a big day for McCoy and Taylor on the ground.  Taylor will also play a big role in the passing game.

Precision Vs. Efficiency in the Passing Game: This game will highlight two quarterbacks who have very quietly carved out a niche for themselves in the discussion of good quarterbacking play this season.  Neither of these quarterbacks would be dubbed "elite", and neither will overwhelm you with the big stats like total yards and touchdowns.  What they have done is quietly moved themselves into the top 10 in statistical categories that pits precision against efficiency this weekend at FedEx Field. 
Kirk Cousins is precise.  He has been the most accurate quarterback this season putting up a league leading completion percentage of 69.2%, and he is in the top 10 in passes completed and passes completed per game.  Detractors will point to the fact that he is throwing shorter routes, but he is making good decisions and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers more often than naught.  Cousins has been able to win because of his precision, but Taylor has been able to win because he is efficient.  Taylor has the fifth highest quarterback rating this season at 100.9, which is better than both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.  He is also fifth in yards per attempt and sixth in yards per completion, and doing this without being in the top 10 in total attempts or yards.  This means that Taylor is throwing the ball long, completing the ball long, and not making many mental errors in his throwing game.  This will be a test of who can make the least amount of mistakes, while at the same time being the best in their respective statistical categories.  Kirk Cousins will need to be true to his completion percentage in order to keep drives alive, and Taylor will need to be completing long passes to force the Redskins out of their methodical offensive pace. 

Win And You're In: Here we are again.  The Redskins find themselves in a must win game to keep pace with a suddenly resurgent Eagles and Giants on their heels.  The Redskins faced a similar opportunity two weeks ago on Monday Night against the Cowboys, when they had a chance to pull away from the rest of the NFC East.  Instead we got a classic Redskins boner performance in prime time. Now they face a very dangerous Bills team that could turn this game into a track meet if the Redskins decide not to show up. The Redskins will give up big yards on the ground, but they will not allow the Bills to get into the end zone and force more field goals than touchdowns.  The Redskins will win by doing the opposite, and scoring touchdowns for every Buffalo field goal.  The Redskins will win, which will set up a huge match against the Eagles next week.

Redskins win: 28-23