The Redskins Have No Choice But to Keep Cousins

The Redskins have put themselves in a position where they have no choice but to keep Kirk Cousins, even if that means putting the franchise tag on him for next year.  Despite Jay Gruden's lukewarm endorsement of Cousins at his end of the year press conference, the Redskins need to see that Cousins has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past three seasons and that there is no other alternative out there that can readily replace Cousins's production on the field.  There are those who follow the usual banal talking points that boil Kirk's performance down to the notion that his stats are pedestrian and that we can easily replace him with someone who can take this franchise to the next level.  A look at Cousins's stats over the past three seasons compared to his fellow quarterbacks, however, shows that Cousins excels in numerous areas given his situation, and the Redskins should see that trying to replace that production may be harrowing at best.

For this analysis, Cousins's stats are compared to only those quarterbacks who have had 40 or more starts over the past three seasons, plus Aaron Rodgers who has 39.  That does limit comparison to players like Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff, but their sample sizes are too small to make a fair comparison, and it is better to compare Cousins to the elite quarterbacks who have sustained their play for a longer period of time.  There are 19 of those quarterbacks, including Cousins, who have made 40 or more starts since 2015 (plus Aaron Rodgers with 39 starts), and it is that list of quarterbacks we will be comparing Cousins to in order to show how good he has been over the past three seasons.  Here is the list of quarterbacks who have made 40 or more starts since 2015, with the number of starts they have had in parentheses: (Note: all stats obtained from profootballreference.com, and all stats given are totals since 2015)

Kirk Cousins (48), Phillip Rivers (48), Drew Brees (47), Tom Brady (44), Matt Ryan (48), Matt Stafford (48), Eli Manning (47), Blake Bortles (48), Derek Carr (46), Aaron Rodgers (39), Cam Newton (46), Jameis Winston (45), Russel Wilson (48), Alex Smith (46), Ben Roethlisberger (40), Joe Flacco (42), Andy Dalton (45), Tyrod Taylor (43), Marcus Mariota (42).

As can be noted by the bold numbers above, Cousins is one of six quarterbacks to have started every single game since 2015.  So has Blake Bortles, though, so a further analysis of Cousins's worth needs to be presented.  I choose to do this by addressing some of the asinine statements that the Anti-Cousins camp brings up to justify not signing Kirk Cousins to a long term contract.  Let's start by presenting an argument aimed at taking down one of Cousins's strengths

Sure, Kirk has a great completion percentage because he checks down and refuses to go down field.

It is true.  Out of this group of quarterbacks, Cousins is 2nd in completion percentage (67.02%) only behind Drew Brees.  Cousins has been highly accurate, but to say that he throws the easier passes is a misnomer based on his yards per attempt and yards per completion over the past three seasons.  His yards per attempt (7.8) is equal to that of Brees and Brady, and his yards per completion (11.6) is third highest among the quarterbacks who had over 1100 completions during this time frame.  Cousins is throwing his passes as deep as some of the best in the game, and he is completing them at a distance that is equal to the elite quarterbacks in the league.  The fact that he is completing these passes at a higher rate than anyone but Drew Brees should show the Redskins that he is worth a long term contract.  But wait, the Anti-Cousins League has another bone to pick with giving Kirk that kind of money...

OK, so he is accurate, but Cousins just doesn't put up the big stats...like yards.

The Cousins doubters maybe surprised to know that the only quarterbacks out of this group to throw for more yards than Cousins are Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Ryan in that order.  Cousins has thrown for 13,176 yards over the past three seasons, and he has shown that he is able to eclipse 4,000 yards this season with a mostly new receiving corps and a patchwork offensive line.  Also factor in the average amount of yardage thrown by these 19 quarterbacks over the past three seasons is 11,172 yards, and you can see that Cousins is well above average.

Fine, but those yards don't translate into points...i.e. Touchdowns.

This statement depends on how you want to evaluate Cousins's performance.  Yes, Cousins has only thrown for 81 TD's over the past three seasons (good for 8th out of the list above) and he has never thrown for 30 or more TD's in any one season.  But there is a surprising stat that elevates Cousins's game when you factor in rushing touchdowns.  Cousins has 13 rushing TD's over the past three seasons.  The only other quarterbacks to have more are Cam Newton (21) and Tyrod Taylor (14).  When you combine the rushing touchdowns with passing touchdowns, Cousins has accounted for 94 TD's over the past three seasons.  That is tied with Russell Wilson for 3rd over that time frame.  The only people ahead of him are Brady (99), Brees (97), and Newton (97).  Think about that.  Cousins has accounted for more TD's over the past three seasons than Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom you would elevate over Cousins without thinking about it.

Right, because those quarterbacks win games.  Close games.  Big Games.  Cousins cannot and has not done that.

Let's dissect this argument as it pertains to Cousins by looking at overall regular season wins over the past three seasons.  Since 2015 Kirk Cousins has won 24 regular season games, which is slightly above the average of 23 for this group.  But Cousins needs to be averaging 10 wins a year to be considered elite enough for a large contract.  Right?  That would add up to 30+ wins over three years, yet there are only three quarterbacks out of this group who have won 30 or more regular season games since 2015.  Tom Brady (36).  Cam Newton (32).  And......................you guessed it.....Alex Smith (31).  Weird, right?  Brady is the best quarterback of all time, but would you automatically call Cam Newton elite, or just a winner because he has a great team around him?  And what do you call Alex Smith, lucky?  It is clear that a quarterback can win a lot of games if the right team is around them, and for Cousins he has not had that since he has been a starter.

Much has been made about the Redskins defense and running game being sub par this season, and that Cousins has achieved in spite of this.  Looking back at the last three seasons the story is much worse.  Since 2015 Cousins has won 24 games despite being one of only three quarterbacks to never have had a top 10 rushing offense or defense to support them.  The other two are Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.  Also, Cousins is one of four quarterbacks to have only one season (2016 where the Redskins inexplicably averaged 106 rushing yards per game) where his rushing offense averaged over 100 yards or his defense averaged below 20 point per game.  The other three quarterbacks are Phillip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Matt Stafford.  None of these quarterbacks have won more than 25 games since 2015, so Cousins's total wins are on par with what one would expect with the supporting cast he has been given.  And for all the knocks on Cousins, he has been able to win close games.

It may be surprising to know that Cousins has 11 wins where he led the Redskins on a 4th quarter drive that put them ahead for the last time in the game.  Only Derek Carr and Matt Stafford have more of those wins than Cousins, and ironically Stafford has one against the Redskins.  This shows that Cousins has the mettle to win tight games, and he had chances to show that this season in the games against Kansas City and Seattle.  Yes, Cousins has shown a propensity for losing in big game situations, and it has been particularly acute over the past two seasons.  But these stats show that he is among the elite quarterbacks over the past three seasons, and the question is, if not Cousins then who?

The Redskins have no choice but to keep Cousins because of his stats and the talent that is out there as replacements.  Out of the 19 quarterbacks listed above only Drew Brees will be a UFA this offseason and the Saints will probably keep him. But maybe Case Keenum did not need the best defense in the NFL this year to put up those stats.  Maybe Teddy Bridgewater can end his 2 year medical sabbatical in DC.  I'm sure Jay Cutler would like to avoid real life for one more year, and Sam Bradford could blow his knee out in a new city.  The rest of the gems on the 2018 Free Agent market are not worth noting, but we would probably be in rebuilding mode and looking to draft someone for the future.  Maybe Baker Mayfield can grab his junk for the FedEx Faithful and run for more than 13 touchdowns.  Maybe Luke Falk can throw for 4,000 yards in the next four years.  Maybe Dan Snyder can end his Robert Griffin withdrawal and draft Lamar Jackson.  Maybe playing New Mexico every year prepared Josh Allen to lead a 4th quarter comeback in the NFL.  But all of these maybe's go to the fact that the Redskins have no choice.  There are no maybe's with Kirk Cousins.  He has proven himself at the highest level to be able to contend with the best this league has to offer, and there are no choices involved with the Redskins other than keeping Kirk Cousins in DC.

Kirk Cousins Has No Option But to Stay in DC

The Kirk Cousins Saga will come to its glorious zenith once the Redskins finish their season against the Giants this Sunday and he is allowed to begin free agent negotiations.  In the DC area, the conjecture surrounding the fate of Kirk Cousins over the past three seasons has only been eclipsed by the theories surrounding Game of Thrones and The Last Jedi, and this season the maelstrom of rumors has been centered on what Kirk has said over the past three months regarding his status with the Redskins organization.  But this approach only looks at what Kirk has said to the detriment of looking at what kind of person Kirk is.  A great Spots Illustrated article by Greg Bishop gives a good glimpse at Cousins's personality and it is very telling.  He is someone who face timed into a QB meeting from the delivery room of a hospital while his son was being born.  He has his day planned out in 15 minute increments.  He has a brain coach.  Cousins is someone who is overly regimented and draws his energy from the process he uses to get himself into peak performance.  So why would Cousins mess that process up by going somewhere else?  And, more importantly, would those situations be any better suited to his process or psyche than staying in DC?  Lets look at all possible suitors by breaking them into categories and showing why the alternatives leave Cousins with no option but to stay with the Redskins.

Category 1: The Ghosts of RGIII (Denver, Cleveland, Buffalo)

These teams seem promising for Cousins, but all of them would more than likely carry an incumbent QB into the 2018 season that may have Cousins needing 10 hours of sleep a night in his hyperbaric 

chamber to keep his beta levels in order (read the SI article).  Does Cousins want the Ghost of RGIII looking over his shoulder again?  For all of Denver's upsides they will probably hold on to Paxton Lynch for this year considering he has a $4 Million dead cap hit, and they may want to keep an insurance policy.  Cleveland will probably hold on to Deshone Kizer for the same reason, and because he is only finishing his rookie season.  Tyrod Taylor carries an extra $10 Million in dead cap money until 2021 if he is not on the roster after the 2018 season so it can be assumed that the Bills would want to keep him for next year and beyond.  Cousins seems to be a calculating individual who has played his way out of situations like this, and it is not worth it for him to go to a place like this even if Cleveland can offer a huge contract.

Category 2: Uncharted Waters (Cincinnati, Arizona, NY Jets, Miami)

Cousins's brain coach will need to be working overtime if he chooses to leave DC for one of these destinations.  All of these teams carry uncertainties that Cousins and his camp must be weighing against the known evil that lies in Ashburn, Virginia.  Arizona was one of the obvious alternatives for Cousins in the beginning of this season, but with Bruce Arians almost certainly on his way out can Cousins afford to take a gamble on an coach to be named later and hope that they gel?  This is ditto for Cincinnati's situation where Marvin Lewis looks to be ending his 15 year reign as head coach.  Miami would have to take a big step and release Ryan Tannehill, which is a maybe at best, and Cousins would also be stepping onto a Dolphins team with a second year head coach that is taking on water at the moment.  The Jets are very intriguing as far as salary cap space goes, but with Jermaine Kearse, an aging Matt Forte, and soon-to-be-free-agent Austin Serferian-Jenkins as the Jets's main skill players on offense it seems to be a lateral move from DC at best.  Even with that cap space to possibly sign some free agents, remember that the Jets drafted Christian Hackenberg to be the future.  So these teams have many uncertainties surrounding their situations that makes the known situation of the Redskins better than the unknown of these teams

Category 3: Replacing the Legend (NY Giants, New Orleans, Pittsburgh)

These teams present Kirk with the question of legacy.  It is plausible that the Giants could move on from Eli, Brees is a UFA at the end of this season, and there are rumors that Roethlisberger may retire after this season, especially if he wins his third Super Bowl this year.  It would be intriguing for Kirk to go to a ready made winner, but would Kirk be able to handle that kind of pressure?  Cousins will need to really amend his process to accommodate for the media lashing that will come when he falls short of being "the guy who came to replace the legend".  And, more importantly, does Cousins want to carry that moniker with him in the latter end of his career?  Even if he is able to win a Super Bowl in New York or Pittsburgh (which would be the standard he will be held to), the narrative will always be that it was not as many as Manning or Roethlisberger.  Brees only won one, but Cousins could never endear himself to that fan base the way Brees has over his career.  He will always play the step dad role in these cities.  Couple this with Odell Beckham's prima donna attitude, Pittsburgh's horrendous cap space situation, and Le'Veon Bell's own franchise tag free agency hangover, and a ready made winner may not be better than trying to build here in DC.  If New Orleans came calling, though, it may be hard to turn down, but it would still carry the baggage of replacing a legend.

Category 4: High Expectations (Jacksonville, Minnesota)

It maybe the first time ever that the Jacksonville Jaguars are associated with the term "high expectations", but if Kirk were to go there he would need to get the left side of his brain in full gear to tone down his inner monologue. The current AFC South Champions would expect, with no major free agents to sign other than Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson and a returning high octane defense, that Kirk Cousins would come in and improve them right away based on his performance over the past three years.  If Cousins were to fall short of wherever the Jags finish this season it would spell instant disaster for Cousins based on the price tag he would demand.  It would be the same situation with the Vikings who have the defense and the skill players to get the job done next season, and all three of their current quarterbacks are UFA's at the end of this season.  Minnesota would be intriguing for Kirk because they have the cap space and a ready made team for him to succeed, but if that success does not come right away Kirk would be an instant scapegoat.  Would Kirk be able to perform with the expectation that he needs to win his division or else there will be disappointment?  And, could Kirk handle being called a bust after one season due to his big contract and hypothetical mediocre record?  With all of these teams considered there is only one option.

All of these teams' current situations show that Cousins has no option but to stay in DC.  The Redskins have the means to give him a large long-term contract, and if not they could still franchise him and limit his options once again.  The Redskins, though, do not have a possible replacement that Cousins would need to dispossess.  The Redskins coaching staff is relatively stable, and most of his offensive weapons will be back next year.  Expectations in DC will be high no matter what, but they will not come with special caveats that will put a higher premium on winning in the short term for relative strangers who would not fully appreciate what Cousins brings.  Kirk Cousins draws his energy from his self imposed daily routine, and moving to another team may require a drastic change to that routine that would require time that Cousins may not have in a new setting given the limitations stated above.  For Kirk Cousins to remain successful with the least amount of stress put on him and his process, his only option is to stay with the Washington Redskins.

For Maryland Football It Is A Season of "What Ifs"

It is hard to believe that over two months have passed since Terrapin Nation was whipped into a frenzy after the Terps pulled off the improbable and beat the Longhorns in Austin.  The expectations for this season were low going into that game.  Most everyone thought the Terps did not stand a chance against a presumptuously ranked Texas team that was not about to have their new golden boy's ship sink in his own port on its' maiden voyage against some lowly carpetbaggers from the Big 10.  But lo and behold, the Terps were able to hang 51 points on Texas in their own stadium and come out with their first win over a ranked opponent since 2010.  Expectations were through the roof for the season, and many thought that the Terps could make some noise once the Big 10 schedule began.  Fast forward to now, and quarterbacking injuries have made the Terps season a shell (pun intended) of what it could have been based on the Texas win.  This season for the Terps has been defined by "What If's", and there are more "What If" scenarios that define this Terps season than you may think.  These scenarios span the Terps past, present, and future, and they are questions that all Terps fans should be asking themselves at this point in the season.  Let's go through all of them in order to get a better idea of the state of this season, and a better idea of where the Terps go from here.

What If.....Kevin Anderson had been able to keep James Franklin as head coach. A nice trip down memory lane, but one that is more pertinent as the game against Penn State on November 25 draws closer.  That game will mark the first time James Franklin will coach at Byrd Stadium since leaving Maryland for Vanderbilt in 2011, and his fortune compared to that of the Terps since that time could not be more opposite.  Franklin sent a lifetime SEC doormat to three straight bowl games and consecutive nine win seasons, and he has vaulted Penn State back into the national spotlight.  All it would have taken to keep Franklin in College Park was for Anderson to reassure Franklin that he would get rid of Ralph Friedgen after the 2010 season, which he ultimately did, and that Franklin was the guy to replace him.  That never happened and Anderson decided to hitch his wagon to Randy Edsall.  Two weeks from now Terps fans will be able to see the error in that decision staring back at them from the opposing sideline.  But enough of the past, let's take a look at a "What If" that is more relevant to the here and now.

What If.....Tyrrell Pigrome and/or Kasim Hill were still playing at this point in the season.  The biggest "What If" of the season because both quarterbacks showed so much promise.  For two and a half quarters, Pigrome showed that he was not the diminutive chucker he was a year ago.  Pigrome ran the read option to perfection, which allowed Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison to run rough shot over the Texas defense.  What was most impressive was how well Pigrome improved as a passer from last season, and his ability to hit receivers deep down the field.  Terps fans' expectations for the season went up after every offensive snap, and they only went higher with Kasim Hill.  A Freshman who could perform under pressure with a Cam Newton-like build was something that made everyone think that we could take on the likes of Ohio State and Michigan.  If either could have stayed healthy it is more than likely that we would have beaten UCF, Northwestern, and Rutgers, and I still purport that with either of them at the helm we would have been within a touchdown of Ohio State, Wisconsin, or Michigan going into the fourth quarter.  Alas it is all for naught, but there are still two games to play and another "What If" that Terps fans are asking themselves right now.

What If.....We beat Michigan State and/or Penn State.  You need to see a doctor because someone slipped peyote into your drink.  But if Max Bortenschlager or Ryan Brand can somehow find a way to win one or both of these games it will bring the theme of the season back to the idea of lost potential and "What could we have done if we had Pigrome or Hill".  They would be landmark wins, but it will only mean something in the short term if the Terps can win both and be bowl eligible which seems highly unlikely. The more probable outcome is that Michigan State and Penn State beat the brakes off of the Terps.  But the long term effect of staying close to either of these teams, god forbid beating either of these teams, leads into the final "What If" of this season.

What If.....All of this is a prelude to Maryland's rise to Big Ten contender status.  It was the thought in everyone's mind this year after the Texas game, but it is now a thought that extends into next season.  Pigrome and Hill will be coming off devastating injuries but they will be back.  Right now the Terps have the 21st ranked 2018 recruiting class according to ESPN.com, and if they can hold that spot they will be rolling into next season with back to back Top 20 recruiting classes. Couple that with what Terps fans saw the first two and a half games of this season, and it is not out of the question to think that by this time next year it is possible that the Terps will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten. This notion will be ignited even further if the Terps manage to win at least one of their remaining games, but the biggest thing to take away from this season is that despite all of the turmoil the Terps seem to be headed in the right direction.

All of these "What If's" cloud the fact that DJ Durkin and his staff have done an amazing job with this roster this season despite all of the injuries.  The perceived potential brought about by the Texas win shows that this program is ready for upward movement into the realm of the Big Ten elites. For now, though, Terps fans must wallow in that potential of what could have been this season, and revel in the idea of what that potential could bring down the road.  All of it is drive by the question "What If..?".  It is the "What If" that got the Terps to this point, and one that will be personified on the visitor sideline come Thanksgiving Weekend.  It is the "What If's" that will define the lost potential of this season no matter how it ends.  And it is the "What If's" that give Terps fans a glimmer of hope for the future.  

The Pathology of DC Sports

Last Thursday Night the Nationals found a new way to rip the heart out of all of DC Sports fans.  Once again we had to watch one of our favored teams lose at home in a deciding series game that continued the playoff misery of all DC Sports teams since 1998.  For those of you living in a hole over the past 18 months, that is the last time any professional DC Sports team (The Capitals) made it to a Conference Final.  That point has been particularly sensitive recently, as the Nationals loss marks the third time in less than four months that a DC sports team has dropped a deciding series game that would have put them into their respective Conference Final.  That is what makes this situation so hard to comprehend.  No American Sports City with three or more "Big 4" sports teams has ever seen futility like this before, and it should not be classified simply as just another sports "curse".  This goes far beyond what classic sports terminology can explain, and it should be dissected in order to come up with a title fitting for the uniqueness of the situation.  Lets start by addressing the scale of this phenomenon.

This "curse" (I'll use that term for now) is unique in that it has impacted all four teams that call Washington DC their home.  All other sports curses have been relegated to specific teams within a given city.  While Red Sox fans suffered under the Curse of the Bambino the Celtics won 16 NBA titles over three decades.  The Cubs wallowed in misery for over a century, but during that time the Blackhawks won six Stanley Cups, The Bears won a Super Bowl, and they were witness to Michael Jordan's greatness.  Even Dallas fans have had the 1999 Stars and the 2011 Mavericks to satiate their championship appetite as the Cowboys continue to disappoint them.  There has been no DC team to pick up the slack over the past 20 years, and it is the nature of that slack that makes this situation even more incomprehensible.

As all of DC fandom is aware, all of this lament is to see one of our teams PLAY in a Conference Final.  Not WIN a Conference Final, just PLAY in a Conference Final.  All of the above mentioned cities never had a 20 year drought where all of their teams failed to make a Conference Final.  Even Cleveland, the gold standard for sports sucking cities, never had all of their teams fail to make it to a Conference Final in a 20 year span during their famed championship drought.  Think about that.  DC has now eclipsed Cleveland in sports futility.  What makes it frustrating is that the DC franchises seem to be doing everything right.  The Nationals and Capitals have one of the best regular season records in their respective sports since 2010.  There have been three number one overall picks (John Wall, Alex Ovechkin, and Bryce Harper) who have lived up to the hype, and they are one of the best players in their respective sports.  The Redskins finally have hit on a number of draft picks and free agents, and they seem to have found their elusive franchise quarterback.  What makes it even more frustrating is that DC fans have seen post season magic.  Jayson Werth's walk off home run in Game 4 against the Cardinals in 2012 is one of the greatest radio broadcasts DC fans have ever heard, and no DC fan has ever been more pumped up than when Joel Ward scored the game winning overtime goal in Game 7 to defeat the defending Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins.  What makes it even MORE frustrating is how close these teams have been to making a Conference Final.  All DC teams have had a combined thirteen chances to make a Conference Final since 1998, including the 2015 Capitals who were 1:41 away from eliminating the Rangers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal.  We all know what happened from there.  So this "curse" is attributable to all DC teams, and it has brought misery and frustration to a fan base the likes of which have never been seen before even in the worst of cases in sports history.  This calls for a new term to be coined.  One that should only be used in the most dire of circumstances, and one that could last even longer here in Washington DC given the status of current events.

The new term based on this evidence should be "plague".  It is not a "DC Sports Curse".  It is the "DC Sports Plague".  Think about it. Curses happen to one or a few individuals and only show up intermittently allowing some joy in their lives until the curse comes back.  Also curses are usually broken instantaneously by acquiring and applying the necessary objects or actions to break the spell.  Plagues are different.   Plagues affect all in their path and anyone who comes in contact with it, they linger for quite some time (The Buboinc Plague still exists to this day) with no one shot panacea, and all they cause is misery.  Doesn't this sound like the DC Sports situation?  We have drafted the right players.  We have put together the right teams.  We have suffered incomprehensible playoff defeats.  And still we suffer from this playoff affliction.  Just as the term "Bubonic Plague" had to be coined because it was new to Medieval Europe, so too should the term "Sports Plague" be coined to describe the current state of Washington DC Sports.  No major sports city has had to endure such a futile times with such seemingly superior teams, and this DC Sports Plague could cause massive casualties in the near future.

With the firing of Dusty Baker, the likelihood that Bryce Harper will not be a National by this time next year looks better and better unless the Lerner's offer him north of $400 million dollars. Following him out of National Airport may be Kirk Cousins, whose contract situation is as enigmatic as I'm sure the first black splotches on the skin of peasants were to those in the Fourteenth Century.  This means that two of the four major figures in DC Sports could leave town within the next year, and if John Wall and Alex Ovechkin fail to end this "DC Sports Plague" this season it may mean that they will never end their Conference Championship drought in a DC uniform.  If that happens we will be well into the next decade still waiting to have the right to cheer for our teams in a championship setting, and seeing high profile free agents in all sports come to this city and get infected with the "DC Sports Plague".

The Nats Need to End the DC Curse

It all started when John Wall hit the game winning shot against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals this past spring.  Wall's miraculous shot vaulted him into the upper echelon of DC playoff lore, but it unintentionally set off strife within the different fan bases within the DC Area.  There was an underlying resentment of the Wizards when John Wall prolonged their season and forced a Game 7 that could possibly end the DC Curse.  This resentment stemmed from the notion that John Wall's Wizards had not endured the playoff misery that some of the other DC teams had to earn the right to be the first DC professional sports team to make their conference final since 1998.  The Caps had met that threshold through their almost laughable playoff ineptitude in the first two rounds since 2008, especially with their propensity for blowing 3-1 series leads.  The Redskins fulfilled their duties by just plain sucking for the better part of the past two decades.  The Nationals have been the favorite to win the World Series at least twice over the past four years but fell short, including blowing that Game 5 lead against the Cardinals in 2012.  The Wizards had not experienced that kind of failed hype in the playoffs until this past spring, and all of DC sports fans were looking to one of the other three teams to break the DC Curse due to their collective impotence in the post season.  By sheer timing the Nationals are that team at the current moment.  A look into the deeper psyche of the DC Sports fan base shows that the Nats need to be the team that finally gets to a conference final to break the DC Curse for all teams in this area.

The argument for having the Nationals be the first DC team to reach their conference final since the 1998 Capitals is due the nature of baseball in the DC area.  There is the pride.  The original Washington Senators were one of the charter members of the fledgling American League in 1901.  The Senators also had Walter Johnson,who some argue is the greatest pitcher to ever play the game, and who holds one of the MLB records that some say will never be broken with his 110 career shutouts.  Johnson also has the moniker of being the first professional athlete in the US to have a high school named after him, and that high school still stands to this day in Bethesda, Maryland.  The Senators also brought the first professional championship to this area by winning the World Series in 1924.  It would be the only World Series the Senators would win, and just like every other DC Sports team after them, the Senators sucked outside of a few random successful seasons.  This was where the pride met the fall.

The Senators left Washington for the first time in 1960 to become the Minnesota Twins, but they would be replaced months later in 1961 by a new Senators Team that would move to Texas in 1971 to create the Texas Rangers. The MLB was twice fooled by the Washington Baseball Fans, but for the die hard Senators fans the sting of not having baseball in the DC area left them empty.  The Nationals success has revived a section of this cities populace that no other team could muster based on the history of baseball in Washington DC.  The fact that baseball can trace its' roots in this areas to the turn of the last century gives it a unique nostalgia that can rally older fans that had no other team to root for other than the Senators, and who are looking to remove the chip off of their shoulder about losing baseball twice before in their history.  But old time baseball fans cannot fill all the seats, and that Nationals have endeared themselves to the young fans through players and fan experience.

Bryce Harper is the biggest sports figure in the DC area as far as young fans under the age of 10 are concerned.  John Wall jersey sales pale in comparison to those of Bryce Harper, and along with Strasberg, Sherzer, Werth, and Trea Turner, the Nationals have built an All-Star lineup that fans of the younger variety can get jacked up for and support through merchandising sales.  Nationals Park has also been rife with ravenous fans ready to spend their day at the stadium watching these young players perform, but it would be nothing without the stadium experience.  Nat Park is easily accessible through public transportation, and that convenience has allowed some of the watering holes around the stadium to become desired destinations for 20-30 year olds with no families and disposable incomes.  A generation of DC Sports fans have witnessed the Nats draft and retain young talent and create a fun experience that is on par, or even better than, the competing sports franchises within this area.  The youth have been drawn to Nationals Park from a young age, and it is this mix of the old and new that makes the Nationals the team of destiny for right now.

I wrote a long time ago that the Nationals were like House Targaryen because they once exclusively ruled this area in terms of popularity, but were exiled and now they are looking to reclaim their throne.  Despite their 3-0 loss on Friday night to the Cubs, the Nationals need to be the team to break the DC Curse and make it to the NLCS.  They can bring old an new together through the history of baseball within the DC area, and through the player personnel/stadium moves they have made as an organization over the past decade.  Seeing the Nationals play for a Pennant would bring the old and young in this area together just as the Cubs did for Chicago one year ago.  The Nats have earned the right to represent this area on national scale in their respective sport, and it is time for them to be the ones to end this horrible curse and send this city into a collective frenzy.  The Nats are the one team that could bridge generations of fans if they were to break this horrible DC Curse, and in an event driven town like Washington DC, it would make them the biggest event in town.

A Tale of Two Quarterback Cities

It seems amazing that the Redskins and Terps find themselves at quarterbacking crossroads so early in the season.  One team is poised to become one of the premier teams in their sport, and the other is one injury away from possibly having to start its' second linebacker at quarterback in five years.  It is the best of times for one team and the possible beginnings of the worst for another, but 15 years ago the current situation would seem ludicrous to Skins and Terps fans who were witnessing a reversal of fortune for either team at the quarterback position.  It is always good to look back on history to put the present into context, so before the Redskins and Terps embark on a season defining weekend lets take a trip down memory lane to the 2002 season for both teams to see just how far they have come in 15 years.

The 2002 season was being pegged as a renaissance year for both teams, even though there were major uncertainties surrounding the quarterback position. The Terps stunned everyone the previous year by winning their first ACC Championship since 1985 under newly hired head coach Ralph Friedgen.  Expectations were high for the Terps' 2002 season despite the fact that they would be starting Junior quarterback Scott McBrien.  McBrien was a Dematha alumnus who had transferred to Maryland from West Virginia and had yet to take a snap for the Terps, but he was being entrusted to continue the momentum from the previous year.  While the Terps built their momentum the Redskins manufactured it.

The 2001 season saw Marty Schottenheimer salvage an 8-8 season from an 0-5 start, and for his troubles he was let go along with starting quarterbacks Tony Banks and Jeff George.  Enter Steve Spurrier and cue the pandemonium.  Dan Snyder hired the Ole Ball Coach for the 2002 season and the sky was the limit.  Redskins fans were expecting it to be Florida Gators North and in a way it was.  Spurrier filled his quarterbacking void with two of his old pals from Gainesville in Shane Mattews and Danny Wuerffel. The Redskins also used the last pick in the first round of the Draft that year to select Patrick Ramsey.  It looked like Spurrier had all the firepower he needed to run his Fun and Gun offense and take the Redskins to new heights.

Despite the optimism being espoused within both fan bases for their quarterbacking situation, the outcome of the 2002 season was very different for both teams.  It was evident from the beginning of the season that Shane Matthews was not the answer at quarterback, and he was benched after only three games in favor of Wuerffel.  Wuerffel got hurt the next game, and then it was Patrick Ramsey's turn.  Spurrier would go through this full rotation one more time in the last ten games of the season, and it was evident that the Redskins had nothing close to a franchise quarterback or a competent NFL coach.  The Redskins ended the season 7-9, and the 2002 season would be a precursor for the Redskins quarterbacking situation over the next decade and a half that was rife with uncertainty, inconsistency, and lackluster performance.  The 2002 season for the Redskins was the beginning of an arduous time for Redskins fans, and The Terps' 2002 season started out just as bad.

McBrien and the Terps were shutout in the opening game of the season against Notre Dame on

national television, and things didn't improve two weeks later when Florida State came to Byrd Stadium and the Terps could only muster ten points.  A lowly 1-2 start after a Conference Championship season was leaving the natives a bit restless, but McBrien would prove his worth.  The Terps would reel off eight straight wins that included wins over a Phillip Rivers led NC State team on homecoming weekend and a 30-12 victory at Clemson.  McBrien would cap off the season with a brilliant 30-3 drubbing of Tennessee in the Peach Bowl, and he led Maryland to its second straight 10 win season.  McBrien would do the same his senior year, leading the Terps to a 10-3 record that culminated with the Terps embarrassing their hated rival West Virginia 41-7 in the Gator Bowl.  McBrien was named Gator Bowl MVP, and while he would graduate after the 2003 season things seemed to be looking up for the Terps.  The Terps had won 31 games in three years, and with McBrien's performance and Fridge's offense it seemed as if the Terps were poised to lure quarterbacks to College Park that could recreate McBrien's success.  It was anything but that, and now we see a reversal of fortune for both teams.

  Kirk Cousins is set to make his 36th straight start for the Redskins on Monday Night, and many are speculating that a win over the Chiefs could vault the Redskins into Super Bowl contending status for the first time in 25 years.  If Cousins can make it through this season unscathed, he will be the first Redskins quarterback to start every game in three consecutive seasons since Joe Theismann between 1981-1984, and it is possible he could see some of the same success that Theismann's teams had in that time period.  Compare that to the Terps, who have seen two of their starting quarterbacks end their season with ACL tears in the first three weeks, and their replacement looked less that adequate last week.  This is a far cry from 2002-2003 where Scott McBrien started all 27 games in that two year span.  Since that time, the Terps have had only one quarterback (Sam Hollenbach in 2006) start every game in a season without being injured or replaced.  The game against Minnesota will be a litmus test for the Terps as they will see if they can keep their aspirations high with either Max Bortenschlager or Caleb Henderson under center, or if they will need to temper their expectations in light of another injury riddled season at the quarterback position.  Both teams have come a long way in 15 years, and it seems that despite injuries and contract disputes, each team has found viable starting quarterbacks that can lead them to new heights for the future.  This weekend, however, will show Terps and Skins fans if they can start to get excited about the present.

Hernandez's CTE Should Change the NFL

The news about Aaron Hernandez's CTE diagnosis will not be the end of the NFL or American Football as we know it.  There is too much money invested in football for an illness that currently can only be diagnosed posthumously to eradicate it.  But the severity of Hernandez's condition will have lasting effects on the sport and the people who volunteer to play the sport. The severity of those effects will be determined by how the NFL reacts to the news about Hernandez in the steps they take to address this problem that has now become more palatable to those people playing football at all levels.  Before we go further, there must be three axioms that we all need to agree to before going further in this article.

Axiom #1: Hernandez's CTE does not absolve him of the crime he committed.  Fortunately for the NFL, most discussions that have occurred about this topic have devolved into vociferous outrage over Hernandez's family suing the NFL because people think the lawsuit mitigates Hernandez's accountability for murdering Odin Lloyd.  Even if the courts knew that Hernandez had CTE during the trial, that would not have been enough to overcome the two things needed to hold someone accountable for a crime which are actus reus (Hernandez killed someone) and mens rea (Hernandez knew what he was doing was wrong).  There was sufficient evidence to show that Hernandez tried to cover up his crime, which shows that he knew what he did was wrong.  CTE is not to blame for this murder, Aaron Hernandez is to blame for this murder.  Are we all OK with this?  Good. Because Hernandez's CTE is the focal point of this article.

Axiom #2: All speculation about players having CTE is SPECULATION.  I have no evidence of any player currently having CTE, and any suggestion of this is merely to evoke critical thought about player behavior and what the NFL should do about addressing the CTE issue.

Axiom #3:  All information presented about CTE in this article has been done through personal research, and is not intended to be presented as absolute fact.

If you cannot agree to these statements I suggest you stop reading immediately as you will only become more incensed.  For those of you who do agree, here we go.

The diagnosis of Aaron Hernandez's CTE is startling and it presents the NFL with a whole host of new problems, the most pertinent being the severity of Hernandez's CTE diagnosis relative to his age.  Some reports state that Hernandez had Stage 3 (out of 4) CTE, and that the progression of his brain deterioration was that of something doctors see in 60 year old patients.  This should make all current NFL players perk up and start doing some math.  Hernandez was 27 at the time of his suicide, but remember that the last down of football he played was in 2012 when he was 23 years old after only playing three years in the NFL.  This is not someone like Junior Seau, Ray Easterling, Dave Deurson, or Andre Waters who had long careers and committed suicide 10-20 years after they retired.  Hernandez was right around the average age for a current NFL player when he committed suicide, and well under the average age when he left football.  The details about CTE are still being learned, but what seems to be unanimous is that CTE is a degenerative condition that progresses as the person gets older.  If Aaron Hernandez was at Stage 3 by age 27, that means that he probably showed the beginning symptoms of CTE while he was playing in his early 20's.  This could mean (again PURE SPECULATION) that some current players in their early 20's are showing signs of this disease, and it could progress to Stage 3 before they are 30 years old. This is not to say that all players with CTE commit suicide or murder, but current players have to see that Hernandez was one step away from Stage 4 symptoms which include full blow dementia, parkinsons, trouble walking, paranoia, loss of executive dysfunction, and language difficulties.  The rate at which CTE progresses in unknown, and the question of how some players get it and others do not is still being researched, but Hernandez's case will put some doubt into younger players' minds about the nature of their health, and it raises the second problem that the NFL will now have to face.

The NFL will now have to face the question "is this player exhibiting signs of CTE" every time they become violent off the field or show erratic behavior.  Since CTE has become more of a mainstream topic this question has been asked of player conduct off the field, but it has been dismissed as being a ridiculous notion due to the players being too young.  "Players in their mid 20's do not have CTE, and their behavior is a manifestation of playing a violent game".  This has been the explanation for this kind of behavior, and it has been tacitly accepted by all areas of society.  The Jovan Belcher incident and the death of Chris Henry should have brought this argument into question, but now Hernandez's diagnosis makes it even harder to peddle that statement as an answer to the question "is this player exhibiting signs of CTE".  If Hernandez could have Stage 3 CTE at 27, then could it be (again PURE SPECULATION) that certain players' actions can be explained by symptoms of early CTE that include depression, minor losses of mental control and self regulation, impulsiveness, short term memory problems, and aggressiveness.  Examples of erractic/violent behavior of football players off the field can be seen in recent incidents involving Su'a Cravens, Lawrence Timmons, Randy Gregory, Greg Hardy, Adam Jones's numerous incidents, Ray Rice, and countless others.  And let's not forget all the incidents that are occurring with college players.  Are these incidents just the byproduct of these players playing a violent game, or could these be manifestations of early onset CTE?  We will never know for sure, but Hernandez's case opens up a new road of justification for the latter, and the NFL needs a plan to address this for the future if it is to head off lawsuits and a possible dwindling of its labor force.

The plan the NFL should adopt needs to address two issues.  The first is participation in the sport.  Depending on the source, youth football is either in decline or it is slightly increasing but high school football numbers are in decline.  There are probably truths on both sides, but the more cases of CTE showing up in players around age 25 start to accumulate, the more doubt begins to sink in to the minds of the "NFL farm system".  College Football.  If players in college right now are concerned that they could have advanced CTE symptoms before they end their rookie contract it may dissuade some of them from pursuing that goal.  The NFL should increase the amount rookies are allowed to be paid in order to add incentive for them to come to the sport, and soften the idea that some could have CTE by age 25.  The NFL also needs to think about those making the league minimum.  Right now the league minimum ranges from $465,000 to $1,000,000 dollars, but for the players making that much money is that worth it to risk their long term health?  The NFL and NFLPA need to realize that this CTE issue will not go away, and to keep players wanting to join the sport out of college and stay in the sport as long as they can they need to increase the league minimum.  Increasing these two areas of salary will give players short term peace of mind about making a decent living in the face of CTE, but it will only partially address the long term problem CTE will have on the NFL.

Lawsuits against the NFL regarding CTE have come, gone, and come again, and they will not stop if the NFL does not have a long term solution.  With CTE thrust into the public sphere because of the NFL, some health organizations have taken it upon themselves to try and develop tests that can screen for CTE while the player is alive, but none have been able to do it reliably.  If the NFL were smart they would put as much money into this research as possible.  Now, you are asking yourselves, isn't this, on some level, admitting that football causes CTE?  Maybe.  But admitting that CTE is an issue is less risky than pretending it is not, and if the NFL can sponsor research that comes up with a reliable test it will do two things.  First, it will be a good faith gesture that shows the NFL is not some money making ogre that does not care about the well being of its players.  The NFL would fund research that could develop a test that will help its players and other segments of the population like military veterans.  Second, let's assume the NFL's funding bears fruit and a reliable test is found that has the ability to test for CTE in living players.  The NFL would have the ability to ameliorate future lawsuits by giving the players a choice to get tested or not.  Those who choose not to get tested will have a tough time suing the NFL later if they continue to take risks when the NFL allowed them to know if they had CTE while they were players.  If a player decides to get tested, and CTE is found, then the NFL can have the players sign a waiver before testing saying that the NFL is not responsible for any previous CTE conditions that are found because it cannot be determined when those conditions were acquired.  This also mitigates culpability for any future symptoms after the test is administered because it may be hard to determine whether those symptoms were manifestation of symptoms that were discovered before or after the test.  This may open up more people to get tested, but the NFL needs to start proactively trying to get ahead of some of these future lawsuits by admitting on some level that this is a problem and that they are taking steps to increase player safety.

Whatever you think the merits of Hernandez's Family's lawsuit against the NFL are, the fact is that the NFL needs to begin to address this issue on many levels.  Hernandez is now at least the third confirmed case in the last ten years, along with Jovan Belcher and Chris Henry, of an NFL player in their mid 20's who suffered from CTE and whose life ended in a violent and tragic manner.  The longer the NFL waits to proactively address this problem, and the more cases of younger players having CTE start to pile up, the higher the risk the NFL runs of irreparably damaging the empire it has built.  But like D'Angelo Barksdale once said, "The king stay the king", and the NFL will continue to rule over all other American professional sports leagues even with this CTE issue.  It is just a matter of how big of a kingdom do they want to have.