What Would It Take to Part Ways With Kirk Cousins?

The rumors surrounding Kyle Shanahan's possible move to San Francisco has put the DC area into a frenzy.  The Redskins and their fan base are now on high alert as the iterations and possibilities of what will happen to Kirk Cousins grew exponentially when it was reported earlier this week that the 49ers may want Kyle Shanahan to be their next head coach.  The threat of Cousins's former mentor moving to a team with a ton of cap space and a horrible quarterback situation has now put the genuine fear within the fan base that Scot McCloughan may willingly give up Kirk Cousins if the price is right.  The general options for what could happen with Kirk Cousins has already been discussed, but what has not been entered into the narrative so far is what would it take for the Redskins to trade Kirk Cousins?  Shanahan moving to the 49ers gives McCloughan an easy target for trade negotiations given Shanahan's familiarity with, and affinity for, Kirk Cousins but there are other quarterback starved teams that may be willing to hear the Redskins out on a deal.  So let's have some fun and come up with some trade partners and scenarios for Kirk Cousins that would get Dan Snyder so excited he would need to change his sheets in the middle of the night.  Just as a point before we get started, my position is that we sign Cousins to a 6 year $120 Million contract and keep him long term. These trade scenarios are purely academic conjecture.

Kirk Cousins for Draft Picks

San Francisco 49ers: Cousins to the 49ers for either their 1st Round Pick in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd Round pick in 2018

Obviously if any team gives the Redskins two first round picks for Kirk Cousins it is hard to argue that it would be a bad trade, and if anyone would be willing to do that it is Kyle Shanahan.  But it may also be advantageous for the Redskins to consider Option B in this scenario.  The 49ers hold the second overall pick in this year's draft, meaning that if they gave us both their first and second round pick this year it would give us four picks in the first two rounds and three picks in the top 40.  Add in another second rounder next year that could be around the same spot as this year, and it may be hard for McCloughan to pass on that.  This is the minimum the Redskins should be looking at for a trade for Cousins and the 49ers may be the most likely suitor given their situation and cap space.

Chicago Bears: Cousins to the Bears for either their 1st Round Pick in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd Round pick in 2018

The Bears hold the 3rd overall pick this year, so these choices would be enticing for the same reasons as they were enticing for a possible trade with the 49ers.  It would give the Redskins either two first round picks or four picks in the first two rounds this year and three in the first 40.  The Redskins will not have a cushy middle man in this deal as they would with San Francisco, but the Bears may even be worse off than the 49ers as far as personnel goes.  Their current depth chart lists Matt Barkley and some guy named David Fales as their only QB's.  Maybe Fales is the next Jeff Garcia, but more than likely the Bears would have to at least hear McCloughan out if he offers Cousins up to them for this price.


New York Jets: Cousins to the Jets for either their 1st Round Pick in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd Round pick in 2018.

The Jets may finally get what they were looking for prior to the 2015 season.  With Bryce Petty injured and Christian Hackenberg as their only other option, the Jets are in the same boat as the Bears.  They should at least entertain this offer from McCloughan if he comes calling, and with the Jets sitting on the 6th overall pick this year it would still be a win for the Skins if they can pull this off.

Cleveland Browns: Cousins to the Browns for either their 1st Round Pick (12th overall) in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd and 3rd Round pick in 2018

This would be the kicker of all kickers.  Cousins would, yet again, have to play alongside Robert Griffin.  Roger Goodell should force this trade for the sheer circus it would create in Cleveland.  The Browns are not parting ways with the first overall pick, but lucky for the Redskins that the Browns acquired the Eagles's 2017 first round pick (12th overall) when the Eagles traded up to get Carson Wentz last year. Since the pick is outside the top 10 the Redskins should ask for another 2018 3rd rounder if the Browns refuse to give up two first rounders, but rest assured that if negotiations start going sour with Cousins and his agent, McCloughan could threaten this trade in an attempt to drive down price.

Cousins for Player to be Named Right Now

The Redskins were a part of the last truly great player-for-player trade in the NFL when they shipped Champ Bailey to Denver for Clinton Portis.  They could do this again with Cousins because there are some teams in need of a QB that have players in positions that the Redskins desperately need to fill.  And aren't the Redskins long over due for an off season move that makes everyone go crazy? Here are three trades for players that could make NFL analysts look like they opened the Ark of the Covenant after they get done talking about it.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Cousins and The Redskins's 2017 1st Round pick to Jacksonville for Jalen Ramsey and the Jags's 2017 3rd Round Pick.

This would shore up the other side of the defense by having Ramsey play opposite Josh Norman.  McCloughan is not in the business of giving up picks, but Ramsey was Jacksonville's first round pick last year and they may be unwilling to part ways with him so soon.  The Redskins may have to give up that first round pick to sweeten pot, but they would be getting a young play maker that would add depth to the secondary and be under contract for the next three seasons.  There are also rumblings that the Jags should move on from Blake Bortles and the Redskins could be all too happy to oblige.

Arizona Cardinals: Cousins to Arizona for Patrick Peterson and Arizona's 2017 3rd Round Pick.

Getting another shutdown corner to play opposite Josh Norman would be a great luxury, and the Cardinals need to think about life after Carson Palmer.  Cousins would be a huge addition for them, although there may be some PTSD from the Kevin Kolb trade that is almost similar to this one.  Peterson may be older, but he could play with Norman and not have to be THE guy all the time.  His contract is also favorable as he only has $8 Million in dead money left on his contract after this year, and that number drops to $4 Million in 2018.  His cap hit, though, is rather large (around $13 Million over the next four years) but could you imagine the off season hype of having Josh Norman and Patrick Peterson as the Redskins's starting cornerbacks?

LA Rams: Cousins and The Redskins's 2017 1st round pick for Aaron Donald and their 2018 2nd Round Pick.

I know.  Another scenario where The Redskins are trading a first round pick along with Cousins.  I know.  Aaron Donald is a 4-3 defensive tackle who may be too small and inexperienced to play nose tackle in a 3-4.  I know.  The Rams already have Jared Goff who was the number one overall pick last year.  But if you hadn't noticed, the Rams do not have a fist round pick this year and they were not particularly good on offense in 2016.  With Sean McVay at the helm, the Redskins may be able to tug at the heart strings of the head coach and offer him the quarterback he helped mold over the last two years.  Goff did not exactly wow people, and with the Chargers moving in on their turf the Rams may need to make a splash to sustain interest in the team.  Aaron Donald will bring a pass rushing persona onto the Redskins defensive line that could boost the play of those around him, and his contract would allow for more maneuverability in free agency.

So there you have it.  All of these trades are speculative at best, but the Redskins should not give Cousins up for anything less that what has been stated above.  Cousins should be resigned long term, but when has this team done right by any quarterback?  More than likely the Redskins will place a non exclusive franchise tag on him and let the bidding begin.

Kirk Cousins and the $26 Million Myth

Twenty Six Million Dollars per year is just a number, yet some have speculated that it could be the going rate for Kirk Cousins if he were to hit the open market and seemingly anyone who has ever watched Kirk Cousins play has an opinion on the matter.  Some say he should get the money.  Some say he shouldn't get the money.  And some have said both over the past year.  But the $26 Million per year price tag does not mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of NFL contracts.  Yes, that would put a tremendous strain on The Redskins yearly salary cap, but without any guaranteed money that number is worthless to Kirk Cousins.  In theory we could sign him to a 10 year $260 Million contract, and if none of it is guaranteed then we can cut him at any time and not have to pay him another cent.  What should concern an almost 29 year old Kirk Cousins, and a fiscally fickle franchise like the Washington Redskins, is the amount of fully guaranteed money that will be a part of a long term contract.  That number should supersede the per year salary as the driving force behind any long term negotiation because that is the number the player will get regardless of whether or not he is one the team, but it is rarely brought up in any discussion about resigning Kirk Cousins. Sports agent Joel Corry stated in his interview with the Sports Junkies in the link above that Cousins could get $60 Million in fully guaranteed money on the open market, and if the Redskins want to keep Cousins at a reasonable salary cap number they may need to increase the amount of fully guaranteed money beyond $60 Million.  Here is a contract that could work given the circumstances:

6 years $120,000,000 with a $36,000,000 signing bonus and $74,000,000 fully guaranteed

$20,000,000 per year with $14,000,000 in base salary and $6,000,000 in signing bonus every year.  Base salary in years 1-2 are fully guaranteed, and $10,000,000 of year 3 base salary is fully guaranteed.
                      

Instead of writing a dry post about why this could work, it may be better to justify this contract by envisioning Scot McCloughan pitching this contract to Kirk Cousins in a fictitious contract talk.  This is probably what it would sound like:

Kirk, baby.  Good to see you.  I know you're a man of business so let's just get down to brass tacks.  You may not believe it, but I have a long term offer for you that may tickle your fancy.  Here it is (McCloughan hands him he offer stated above).  No, I don't take you for an idiot, but hear me out on this contract.  Yes, you will only be getting $20 Million per year, but $74 Million would be the second largest guaranteed amount of money behind Andrew Luck. Of course I think you are better than Andrew Luck, and not just in your elocution skills.  But Andrew was only 26 when he signed that contract and those three years make a difference.  You'll be 29 before next year starts, and I am still giving you only $2 Million less in overall money than Andrew Luck, but it is hard to come up with comparable contracts within your age range.  The two contracts you should be looking at for comparisons are Joe Flacco's old contract and Tony Romo's contract.  Romo signed his contract when he was 33 and I'm giving you the same amount of years and almost $20 Million more over the course of the contract.  Flacco was 28 when he signed his old contract in 2013 for the same years and the same money as I am giving you now, but he only got $29 Million in guaranteed money and he was coming off a freaking Super Bowl victory.  I am giving you almost $50 Million more in guarantees than Flacco to show you how committed we are to keeping you here.  And while were on the subject of Super Bowl's, let's not forget what got you here in the first place.  

Maybe you haven't noticed, but we need to fill a lot of holes that could make this team that much better in 2017 and beyond.  Giving you more than $20 Million per year would put a strain on trying to fill those holes.  You want Pierre, DeSean, Vernon, and Chris Thompson back?  You want to not worry about whether or not were are getting the ball back on every defensive 3rd down under 25 yards?  You want to rewrite the way high profile quarterback sign contracts?  I thought you did.  You make this team better, and this team has made you better.  Let us build that team around you by taking this contract.  We believe in you and..........what?  Yes, I mean that.  We believe in you, and ah? Oh C'mon Kirk, not this again.  Of course we front loaded the guaranteed money, but that is what's best for the both of us.  We are betting on you now, Kirk.  We feel that you have at least three good years in you and we are so confident in that fact that we are guaranteeing you $56 Million in the first three years.  And yes, after year three we would be able to cut ties with you and only be on the hook for $6 Million per year, but that is not what we want.  We want you to play out the full term of this contract and lead this team to glory.  What?.......(McCloughan lets out an audible sigh of frustration) OK Kirk.  You think this is not a fair assessment of your skills do you?  You think you can get more on the open market?  Well, let's not get too greedy here my friend.  I didn't want it to come to this, but let's take a long hard look at your other options and this rosy open market.

I don't want it to come to this, but we could always franchise you again.  Yes, that is more money in the short term, but the question is what will you do come next year?  You better hope that we can win, and with $4 Million less in cap space this year that may be an issue if we can't sign who we want.  What will the market be for a 30 year old quarterback who cannot be better than right around .500 even when managing a highly prolific offense? Think about that.  What would we do without you?  Kirk, the question you should be asking is what would you do without us.  You going to follow Kyle Shanahan to Denver and have to fight through another quarterback controversy for the next two seasons with Lynch and Siemian?  You going to go to Arizona and take a bigger gamble that their offensive line will holdup and not get you killed like Carson Palmer?  Maybe you can clean up Jay Cutler's mess in Chicago and spend the next three years in rebuilding mode, or take whatever ungodly contract the 49ers can offer you with their $87 Million in cap space and play for a different head coach every year.  Wait, I got it.  You can stick it to Robert again and go play for Cleveland.  That sounds like fun, right?  No, Kirk.  The best place for you is here.  You know the offense.  We'll keep as many players we can and add more to make it better.  We are on the cusp here of something great for the first time in 30 years in DC.  Sure, you could probably get more money elsewhere but it won't mean as much as it could if you bring a championship to DC.  We are close Kirk.  Take time to think about this offer and I'll see you tomorrow.  

There it is.  This contract would be pricey, but not much more than what we are paying Cousins now so the salary cap does not take a colossal hit.  The length may make some squeamish, but it is time to commit to someone who has shown he can get it done.  This contract is compensatory without being too over the top, and Cousins would at least have to think about signing it.  He will be 29 in August, and while he holds most of the leverage in these negotiations he must realize on some level that he will be gambling on himself again if he leaves for an unknown situation.  McCloughan would be wise to start at this point and try to negotiate the amount of guaranteed money without raising the per year cap hit.  If a deal cannot be reached then it is the franchise tag again for Kirk Cousins and another year of speculation that could possibly end with his ultimate departure from the Washington Redskins.

Melo Brings Back More Than Just Talent

It was not but a few months ago that Melo Trimble made a risky decision to pull his name from the NBA draft and come back for his Junior season.  At this time last year it was almost a forgone conclusion that Melo would be gone after a predicted stellar Sophomore campaign, and while the Terps reached the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in over a decade Melo seemed to lose his luster in the second half of last year.  Trimble was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the Big Ten season, and rumors of a lingering injury were bandied around to try and make sense of this step back in performance from one of the most electrifying Freshman of 2015.  These inconsistencies may be the reason that Melo decided to come back and bring his stock up for this year's NBA Draft, but he also brings back a sense of leadership and loyalty to the program that mirrors another flashy point guard who decided to come back for one more year to raise his draft status.

Greivis Vasquez was another person who was set to leave for the NBA after his Junior season.  He had the moxy and attitude to play in the NBA, but his erratic style left something to be desired in an over saturated point guard market in the 2009 NBA Draft.  Vasquez made the decision to come back to College Park in May of 2009 to hone his skills and in the process he led the Terps to one of their best seasons since 2000.  The 2009-2010 season saw the Terps win a share of the ACC regular season title by beating the #4 Duke Blue Devils in the last home game of the season at the XFinity Center, and they came within 6.6 seconds of making it to the Sweet Sixteen.  And remember that Michigan State went on to the Final Four that season because Kansas had been upset by Northern Iowa in the Second Round and #2 Ohio State lost to Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen meaning that ipso facto the Terps would have made it to the Final Four that year.  For Vasquez personally, his Senior season could not have ended any better.  He was the 2010 ACC Player of the Year, a Second Team All-American, and he was drafted 28th overall in the 2010 Draft.  Melo's return may mirror Vasquez's 2010 season in that the Terps could be poised for a run given what Melo brings back outside of his talent, and what Marlyand has done to compliment Melo's strengths.

Melo Trimble's abilities were needed to have this season be a success.  That has been evident over the first 14 games.  What also has been evident over the first 14 games is a resiliency and willingness to win that has not been present the past two seasons.  The Terps have been able to erase four nine point second half deficits this season, and without Melo's leadership those comebacks may not have occurred.  Melo must also know that he cannot go at it alone, and the he needs to rely on the pieces that Mark Turgeon has put in place this season to help him and the Terps become a better team.  Turgeon must have seen that when Melo was not in the game last year the team looked lost on offense, and more often than not they resorted to jacking up threes or driving down the lane into double teams.  Enter Anthony Cowan, who has shown that he can be that ball handler/distributer the Terps need when Melo needs a break.  The Terps now do not look as inept on offense without Melo in the game, and that was showcased in their rout of Illinois on Tuesday night.  Cowan, along with guys like Kevin Huerter, Jaylen Brantley, Dion Wiley, Justin Jackson, and L.G. Gill, give the Terps some much needed depth and intangibles that at times may have been lacking last season.  But Melo Trimble is the glue.  His talent is what the Terps needed to have back to give this team a chance, but the dedication, experience, and leadership he brings back could have the Terps surprising some people come March.  And maybe, just maybe, he can create enough surprises this year to have his number resting at XFinity Center right next to that fiery point guard who also decided come back for one more year.

Redskins vs. Vikings: Back to the Future

Last Sunday's win over the Vikings gave Redskins fans a glorious glimpse of the franchise's past, present, and future all at one time.  It made us try and remember the last time we had a winning record after our ninth game of the season, which we then realized was at the tail end of the Horny 4 Zorny craze of 2008 and we started to have that all too familiar Redskins fan feeling of "this team will let us down like it always does".  But the win against the Vikings reminded us that the 2016 iteration of the Washington Redskins maybe the Marty McFly of 1985 that helps erase the memory of his family's past impotency through moxy and determination.

It has been stated that there is a different air about this team this season; a determination not seen in years past that has kept them fighting in close games where they had wilted in the past.  This comes as a surprise to a fan base whose Pavlovian response in the last two minutes of a close Redskins game is to settle in to their favorite chair and calmly wait for the meteor of disappointment to make its inevitable crash into the depths of our hearts.  But the attitude of this team has changed because the Redskins finally have players in leadership positions that have shown that determination in their career arcs through this league and the franchise.  Think about Will Compton and Chris Baker who had to work their way off the practice squad to become central leaders of this defense.  Pierre Garcon had to prove that he could emerge out of Reggie Wayne's shadow and produce on his own, and he has anchored this receiving corps for the last four years.  Rob Kelley won his starting role as an undrafted free agent this season and has sparked a renaissance in the Redskins running game.  DeSean Jackson has always had to overcome issues with his size to prove himself to teams that drafted Devin Thomas and Fred Davis over him in 2008 (We also let the Packers draft Jordy Nelson two picks after we took Devin Thomas).  We finally hit on a big name free agent in Josh Norman, who may have been a bad ass last year but he was not so hot being drafted in the 5th round out of Coastal Carolina in 2012.  We also hit on the wily veteran free agent who surprisingly has something left in the tank.  Vernon Davis has been rejuvenated playing in front of his hometown crowd after being left for dead in Denver last season.  And the ultimate leader of this team is a guy most everyone thought was a waste of a draft pick and would never see the light of day playing behind the franchise's golden boy, and some still believe we can go it without him next season after all he has done.  All of these players fill leadership positions and have fought to get where they are and still have something to prove.  This combination is why we have seen the Redskins continue to fight on both sides of the ball, regardless of what has transpired during the game.  It is a delicate balance that Scot McCloughan would be wise to keep intact as much as possible, and the win over the Vikings provided some telling portends about the future of this franchise.

The Vikings game provided two pieces of information about the Redskins future.  The first is that Kirk Cousins is going to be a franchise quarterback for us if we resign him.  He not only led the team on four scoring drives in the second half, but his two touchdown passes showed that he has the ability to throw people open in the red zone (the Jamison Crowder TD) and that he can throw an accurate deep ball (the Vernon Davis TD).  He is the leader of this team, and if we let him go we will be letting go of the invaluable intangibles that he brings to this team.  Kirk Cousins needs to be back next year.  Unfortunately for DeSean Jackson, this game proved that he may not be as valuable as we once thought.  He obviously makes the Redskins better, but how bad are they without him?  The Redskins moved the ball efficiently enough to show that Jackson's deep threat may be more of a myth than reality as long as the run game stays healthy.  This is not to say that his deep ball is not helpful, but the argument was that the threat of Jackson going deep opens up the passing game for everyone else.  The offense looked just fine against Minnesota without DeSean streaking down the field, so don't be surprised if the Redskins let him walk at the end of the season.

Onto the Packers on Sunday Night, where the Redskins determination will be put to the test in a thickening NFC playoff race.

We Know Kirk Cousins, and We Need Him to Stay

The Redskins bye week has been a cacophony of opinions about the future of Kirk Cousins and this franchise.  This dialogue was inevitable given that the franchise tag that Cousins has been carrying around this season makes for sensational conjecture and blogger fodder.  But the tone of this dialogue is what is baffling given Cousins performance as the unquestioned starter over the last 25 games.  This notion that we still don't know what to make of Cousins is asinine.  Even more asinine is the hypothetical notion that we could be in the same spot if Colt McCoy had been under center this season.  Both of these lines of thinking are dangerous given that Scot McCloughan will more than likely not be paying what Cousins and his agent are looking for this offseason, and there are a number of suitors who may very well break then bank to enlist the services of the Redskins signal caller.  All of this means that we will need to make Cousins feel wanted so much that he turns down $3-5 million more per year, and possibly $10-20 more in guaranteed money, to stay in Washington.  We must do this by putting away the notions that there is ambiguity in what kind of quarterback Cousins is and that we would be able to do the same thing without him.  The Redskins need Kirk Cousins because of what he has become over the last two seasons, and these accomplishments can be highlighted by debunking the two most prevalent arguments against Cousins getting a big contract here in Washington.

Argument 1: We Still Don't Know What Kind of Quarterback Kirk Cousins Is

The people who want to temper the talks of giving Cousins a large contract use this argument to obfuscate the true nature of what Cousins means to this team, and to use it to artificially manufacture dissent within HTTR nation about what Cousins should be paid this coming off season.  These people are the people who call Cousins an empty stat collector without looking at the most important stat of all.  Wins.  While the detractors look to dissect Cousins's stats to point out inconsistencies within his play they neglect that, for the first time since Brad Johnson, the Redskins have a winner at quarterback who has the temperament to perform at a high level in close games and lead meaningful drives late in the game.   Let's look at those drives over the past two seasons:

1) 10/4/15: Cousins leads a 15 play, 90 yard drive at the end of the 4th quarter to beat the Eagles
2) 10/11/15: Cousins goes 46 yards in :24 to set up a game tying field goal in Atlanta, and was a Ryan Grant slip away from leading the Redskins to score on their first possession in overtime
3) 10/25/15:  The infamous "You Like That" game.  Cousins led the biggest comeback in Redskins history, but you may have forgotten that the last touchdown was thrown to Jordan Reed that capped an 11 play, 80 yard drive in the last two minutes
4) 10/23/16: Cousins put his contract on the line as he ran in a 20 yard read option play to cap off a 9 play, 76 yard drive to take the lead.
5) 10/30/16: Cousins did all he could except kick the field goals himself to put the Redskins in position to win in a hard fought game.

These are not event counting the fact that last year he was plagued by drops against New England that may have allowed the Redskins to at least keep pace with the Patriots.  He put the redskins ahead in the third quarter of their playoff game against the Packers.  He led the Redskins into a position to go up by two scores against Dallas and threw an untimely interception.  He led the go ahead drive after halftime against the Ravens that proved to be the difference in the game.  All of this shows that Cousins has put the Redskins in a position to win more often than not, and aside from the Dallas game this season he has cleaned up the back breaking mistakes that plagued him early in his career.  This is who Kirk Cousins is.  He puts the team in a position to win.  Whatever way Cousins's stats are used to define him as a quarterback, Cousin has compiled a majority of those stats in games where the Redskins were in the thick of competition.  This leads into the second bogus argument against keeping Cousins.

Argument #2: Colt McCoy (or hypothetical replacement) could do what Cousins is doing

This statement is only bogus when looking at the long term prognostication.  In the short term it is hard to argue some of the facts.  McCoy has a limited arm, but can make short throws and is more athletic than he looks to keep defenses honest in read option.  McCoy may not have the leadership qualities that Cousins has, and Cousins can throw deep enough to keep the safeties at bay, but let's say that McCoy could be 4-3-1 right now as a starter and we let Cousins walk at the end of the season.  What then?  McCoy would only be a short term solution and we would need to look for a replacement.  We would probably want to bring in another QB in order to have Nate Sudfeld not be one hit away from being the starter, but the free agent class for 2017 looks bleak and hopefully  McCloughan is smart enough not to draft a quarterback again in 2017.  Then at the end of next season we are back at square one.  I can hear people saying, "We'll have the money to resign all of our offensive weapons if we go with McCoy next year", but do they think that Jackson and Garcon will stay after this season knowing that the next two years may be in rebuilding mode?  Both will be entering their 10th year as a pro, and they know that they may only have 3-4 good years left.  It would not be surprising if they decide to walk from uncertainty here in Washington if Cousins leaves, so McCoy would be without two huge weapons.  It is more than likely one leaves anyway if Cousins resigns to a large contract, but there is more incentive to stay if Cousins is under center.

All of this points to one conclusion.  Barring a complete meltdown from Cousins over the next eight games, the best option will be to resign Cousins to a long term contract.  Even though some have stated his average annual salary should be about $22.1 million, it is unlikely that McCloughan will go that high.  It may be that Cousins gets a higher amount of guaranteed money over a longer term contract in order to keep the per year cap hit low enough that we can resign some of our free agents, but Cousins is the only option to continue the success the Redskins have had over the last 25 games.  Cousins is a winner who has shown improvement over his time as a starter, and he has gained the respect of the players around him.  At no time in the Dan Snyder era have the Redskins had a quarterback who instilled so much confidence in his play over a longer period of time, and the Redskins need to show that they are committed to the players they have developed.  If not, get ready for the Brian Hoyer vs. Colt McCoy battle in training camp, and blog posts about how good DeSean Jackson looks in silver and black.

Redskins vs. Lions: Dueling Quarterbacks and Playoff Implications

When the Redskins roll onto Ford Field on Sunday, they will be facing two major factors that have arisen due to their ascendance to the upper echelon of the NFC.  The first is the Kirk Cousins situation.  Cousins has played about as well as he could over the Redskins current four game win streak, but he faces a nemesis (and part time Haley Joel Osment impersonator) that he needs to vanquish with stats this week in order to keep the Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 rolling on.  Since 2010 Matt Stafford is 7th in total passing yards, 8th in touchdowns, and first in speculative contracts that may break the bank.  Cousins has not really out dueled any quarterback of note this season, but he more than likely will get his opportunity this Sunday against Stafford and he needs to deliver if he wants that long term deal at the end of the season.

The second factor the Redskins will face can be summed up in the immortal words of Jim Mora. Yes, that is correct.  In all the euphoria of the Redskins four game win streak, it has not been said enough that the Redskins currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC.  They hold a one game lead over the Rams, Eagles, Giants, and the team that will be on the other side of the ball on Sunday.  This game holds early playoff implications, as a win would improve the Redskins's conference record while putting the Lions two games behind them in the Wild Card.  The Redskins already have one loss that will come back to haunt them later in the season in some way (the loss to Dallas), so there should be a hint of playoff atmosphere against a team the Redskins have not beaten since 2008.  It will not be an easy out as the Lions look to stay in the playoff race, but here are the key aspects of the game.

The Lions Giveth, and Lions Getteth:  The Lions give just as much as they get.  Their offense is dangerously efficient as they have eight less drives than the Redskins, but average almost two points more per game.  Those stats are good enough for a scoring percentage of 44.6%, which is 7th best in the league.  They also have the second best plays per drive (6.9) and third best yards per drive (37.4) in the league, which means that their offense can move the ball for long periods of time. The problem is that their defense allows other teams to do the same.  The Lions are giving up scores on 46.6% of opponents drives, which is second worst in the league, and allowing a league worst 39.3 yards per drive.  Couple this with the Lions defense only forcing four turnovers all season and giving up a league worst 73.7% completion percentage, and Kirk Cousins should be looking to have a field day.  The key will be to keep Matt Jones involved in the run game and utilize short passes to beat the Lions at their own game.  The Redskins are right behind the Lions in scoring percentage and yards per drive, so they should be looking to exploit a Lions defense that likes to keep teams on the field. The team that wins the offensive possession and efficiency battle will have the upper hand.  If the Lions are able to score on a majority of their drives and the Redskins cannot answer, the Redskins may be forced into a pass happy offense that could get them in trouble.  The Lions, though, may be more equipped to handle a high paced game with the addition of their new superstar.

Starscream Now Leads the Decepticons:  When Calvin Johnson left after last season, the Lions were staring at an offense whose second leading receiver was Theo Riddick.  Enter Marvin Jones, who has been born again hard after leaving AJ Green's shadow in Cincinnati to become the Starscream to Johnson's Megatron, and who is leading a deceptively formidable receiving core.  Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin showed last week that the Lions have claws outside of Jones that can tear up defenses, and the Redskins should take notice.  Jones and Tate can stretch the field with their speed, and Boldin is that guy who can kill defenses on possession routes and red zone plays.  The Josh Norman Wheel of Fortune will be spinning out of control this week, and it will be up to Joe Barry to use Norman in a prudent manner to keep the Lions's hot receiver in check.  It will also be up to Barry to continue this defensive renaissance because it will be where the Redskins win or lose this game.

Defensive Pressure:  The Redskins defense has pressure on it.  The offenses this week are evenly matched, and it will come down to which defense can get the other offense of the field by any means necessary.  Turnovers may be at a premium for the Redskins defense as the Lions have only turned the ball over five times this year, but the Lions have also allowed 15 sacks.  With the absence of Theo Riddick this week, Stafford has lost one of his safety valves that may force him into longer reads.  The Redskins front seven must continue to get pressure and not force Barry to commit corners and safeties to the QB pressure cause.  If that happens we may see either Tate or Jones go for some
big gains.  It is also interesting to note that the Lions have more rushing attempts than the Redskins this season but average 20 yards less per game. The Lions still gave 19 carries last week to a combination of Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, and with the Redskins still allowing 124 yards per game on the ground, look for the Lions to feed the ball to their running backs to keep short down and distances.  If the Redskins allow the Lions to have anything more than moderate success on the ground it could be a long day for the defense as they may find themselves on the field for long periods of time.  The Redskins's front seven needs to have a big day in run stoppage and pass rush in order to take the pressure off the secondary who will have their hands full.

All of this leads to another game where the Redskins's resiliency will be tested.  The Redskins reborn running game needs to be in full effect, and they should use all three backs to keep Detroit's defense on it's heels.  Look for a healthy amount of screen passes from the Redskins as well in order to keep the pass rush at bay.  Running backs against the Lions are averaging almost 7 receptions for 49 yards a game, so don't be surprised by a big receiving day for Thompson, Jones, and Kelley.  Look for Jones to have a more rounded stat line that may be less than 100 yards rushing, but over 100 yards total offense due to receiving yards.  This game will go back and forth, but the Redskins will be able to keep the ball for longer periods of time due the Lions not being able to get off the field.  The Lions will come out running in order to negate the pas rush and lull the Redskins defense into a stupor.  Cousins, though, will lead a potent attack that will have at least one passing touchdown of over 30 yards which will break the game open.  The opportunistic defense will be able to turn the Lions over at least once, and they will win the third down plays enough to give the ball back to the offense at critical times.  The Redskins prevail, and go into Cincinnati with a five game win streak.

Redskins win 30-24

Redskins vs. Ravens: The North Remembers

Our neighbors to the north remember. They remember the days of Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Anthony Wright, Chris Redman, Steve McNair (a 13-3 season followed by a plethora of injuries), Jeff Blake, Elvis Grbac, and Ranall Cunningham.  They remember what it is like to have a different starting quarterback almost every season, and have your Super Bowl winning quarterback not even be on the roster the next season.  That is why they gave so much money to Joe Flacco after he led them to the Super Bowl on an improbable statistical run through the playoffs, and it is why they can at least tolerate his 24-22 performance since his win in New Orleans four years ago.  Kirk Cousins is not at that level yet, but his season last year was statistically better than any season Flacco has had in his entire career.  Superior statistics are not exactly equivalent to a Lombardi Trophy (see Dan Marino), but Sunday's game against the Ravens will be a continuation of The Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 as Cousins must prove he can move the ball against a stingy defense on the road.  Cousins must make McCloughan and the Redskins front office remember what it was like to rest their laurels on the likes of John Beck, Rex Grossman, and an over the hill Mark Brunell.  It begins Sunday when the Redskins make the 45 minute drive up I-95 to face the Ravens.

Quantity vs. Quality: Quantity has a quality all it's own.  One team has lived by that mantra so far this season in having a superior number of rushing attempts, passing attempts, drives, and plays run.  Of course that team is the Ravens.  Maybe not what you were expecting, but the Ravens outpace the Redskins in all four of those categories having a higher volume of offensive output.  The problem lies in the results. The Redskins have amassed 140 more passing yards in 18 less attempts, 140 more total offensive yards in 40 less plays, and surprisingly only 5 less yards rushing on 17 less attempts.  Think about that.  As maligned as the Redskins running game has been this season, their yards per attempt (4.4) is almost a full yard better than the Ravens (3.7).  All of this means that the Redskins have been able to move the ball more efficiently than the Ravens, and they must continue to do so this weekend.  The Ravens's offense relies on running a lot of plays and getting a lot of chances to score, so forcing Flacco and the Ravens to make the most of their possessions is key.  The Redskins must continue the Matt Jones renaissance in order to keep the ball on their side, continue to score on every other possession, and continue to spread the ball around to numerous receivers in order to keep the Ravens defense off balance.  They will need to do this because the Ravens defense has quietly become one of the better defenses in the league, and the game may come down to which defensive style wins out.

Bending, Breaking, and the Forgotten Art of Forcing Punts: This game will be based more on which defense can impose it's will on the other team.  The Redskins may not have been able to stop people on a consistent basis, but they have been opportunistic.  They boast the second best turnover percentage (19.5%) in the league, and that was on full display last week against Cleveland.  They have relied on turnovers to stop drives, and they cannot pull a Carlos Rogers and drop sure interceptions or not be able to recover fumbles when they happen.  The Ravens, though, rely on turning people over through punts.  The Ravens defense has forced 26 punts this season, which is second best in the league.  They have done this by being third in the league in plays per drive (4.8) and first in the league in yards allowed per drive (21.3).  They have also forced less turnovers than the Redskins.  This means the Ravens have been able to actually stop people on defense and give the ball back to their offense.  The Ravens high volume offense relies on their defense limiting the possessions of the other team, so the Redskins must be able to sustain drives if they plan on having the bus ride home be a pleasant one.  The Redskins opportunistic offense relies on their defense giving them chances to score through forcing turnovers.  If the Redskins cannot force turnovers and have short drives it could be a long day for the Burgundy and Gold.  They must look to their MVP's so far this season to guide them through this game.

The MVP's Must Step Up: The Redskins MVP's must come to play this weekend.  It may not have dawned on anyone, but the past two weeks have seen Josh Norman have major pregame rhetorical spats with the likes of Odell Beckham and Terrelle Pryor. This week, though, Norman's nemesis is not as hot of a ticket on the heavyweight circuit.  Josh Norman vs. Mike Wallace does not move the needle as much, and maybe for the better.  Norman can now focus more on shutting down the Ravens receivers without the media trying to turn it into a soap opera type narrative.  The other MVP's have been just as well documented as Norman this season, sans the major media hype, and they must show up this weekend if the Redskins want a chance to win.  Dustin Hopkins must be on point with his kicks and convert his field goal attempts into points, and Tress Way must pin the Ravens deep when he gets the chance.

This game will be a litmus test to see where the Redskins are as a team.  The Ravens are a team with a winning record and a stingy defense that the Redskins must step up to in order to given themselves confidence that they can put themselves back atop the NFC East.  The Redskins offense must not get discouraged if they find themselves be stymied early by the Ravens defense, and having to watch the Redskins defense allow Terrance West to run all over them.  The Redskins must be committed to ball control and running Matt Jones in order to set up play action.  Watch for Flacco to take early chances deep in order to test the Redskins safeties, and look for Joe Barry to dial up all or nothing blitzes in order to try and rattle Flacco.  The Redskins will find themselves down again at the half, but their first drive of the second half goes for a score, they get a timely second half turnover, and Flacco and the Ravens squander a last minute drive.  Redskins are 3-2 going into a showdown with the Eagles next week.

Redskins Win 27-24