Kirk Cousins and the $26 Million Myth

Twenty Six Million Dollars per year is just a number, yet some have speculated that it could be the going rate for Kirk Cousins if he were to hit the open market and seemingly anyone who has ever watched Kirk Cousins play has an opinion on the matter.  Some say he should get the money.  Some say he shouldn't get the money.  And some have said both over the past year.  But the $26 Million per year price tag does not mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of NFL contracts.  Yes, that would put a tremendous strain on The Redskins yearly salary cap, but without any guaranteed money that number is worthless to Kirk Cousins.  In theory we could sign him to a 10 year $260 Million contract, and if none of it is guaranteed then we can cut him at any time and not have to pay him another cent.  What should concern an almost 29 year old Kirk Cousins, and a fiscally fickle franchise like the Washington Redskins, is the amount of fully guaranteed money that will be a part of a long term contract.  That number should supersede the per year salary as the driving force behind any long term negotiation because that is the number the player will get regardless of whether or not he is one the team, but it is rarely brought up in any discussion about resigning Kirk Cousins. Sports agent Joel Corry stated in his interview with the Sports Junkies in the link above that Cousins could get $60 Million in fully guaranteed money on the open market, and if the Redskins want to keep Cousins at a reasonable salary cap number they may need to increase the amount of fully guaranteed money beyond $60 Million.  Here is a contract that could work given the circumstances:

6 years $120,000,000 with a $36,000,000 signing bonus and $74,000,000 fully guaranteed

$20,000,000 per year with $14,000,000 in base salary and $6,000,000 in signing bonus every year.  Base salary in years 1-2 are fully guaranteed, and $10,000,000 of year 3 base salary is fully guaranteed.
                      

Instead of writing a dry post about why this could work, it may be better to justify this contract by envisioning Scot McCloughan pitching this contract to Kirk Cousins in a fictitious contract talk.  This is probably what it would sound like:

Kirk, baby.  Good to see you.  I know you're a man of business so let's just get down to brass tacks.  You may not believe it, but I have a long term offer for you that may tickle your fancy.  Here it is (McCloughan hands him he offer stated above).  No, I don't take you for an idiot, but hear me out on this contract.  Yes, you will only be getting $20 Million per year, but $74 Million would be the second largest guaranteed amount of money behind Andrew Luck. Of course I think you are better than Andrew Luck, and not just in your elocution skills.  But Andrew was only 26 when he signed that contract and those three years make a difference.  You'll be 29 before next year starts, and I am still giving you only $2 Million less in overall money than Andrew Luck, but it is hard to come up with comparable contracts within your age range.  The two contracts you should be looking at for comparisons are Joe Flacco's old contract and Tony Romo's contract.  Romo signed his contract when he was 33 and I'm giving you the same amount of years and almost $20 Million more over the course of the contract.  Flacco was 28 when he signed his old contract in 2013 for the same years and the same money as I am giving you now, but he only got $29 Million in guaranteed money and he was coming off a freaking Super Bowl victory.  I am giving you almost $50 Million more in guarantees than Flacco to show you how committed we are to keeping you here.  And while were on the subject of Super Bowl's, let's not forget what got you here in the first place.  

Maybe you haven't noticed, but we need to fill a lot of holes that could make this team that much better in 2017 and beyond.  Giving you more than $20 Million per year would put a strain on trying to fill those holes.  You want Pierre, DeSean, Vernon, and Chris Thompson back?  You want to not worry about whether or not were are getting the ball back on every defensive 3rd down under 25 yards?  You want to rewrite the way high profile quarterback sign contracts?  I thought you did.  You make this team better, and this team has made you better.  Let us build that team around you by taking this contract.  We believe in you and..........what?  Yes, I mean that.  We believe in you, and ah? Oh C'mon Kirk, not this again.  Of course we front loaded the guaranteed money, but that is what's best for the both of us.  We are betting on you now, Kirk.  We feel that you have at least three good years in you and we are so confident in that fact that we are guaranteeing you $56 Million in the first three years.  And yes, after year three we would be able to cut ties with you and only be on the hook for $6 Million per year, but that is not what we want.  We want you to play out the full term of this contract and lead this team to glory.  What?.......(McCloughan lets out an audible sigh of frustration) OK Kirk.  You think this is not a fair assessment of your skills do you?  You think you can get more on the open market?  Well, let's not get too greedy here my friend.  I didn't want it to come to this, but let's take a long hard look at your other options and this rosy open market.

I don't want it to come to this, but we could always franchise you again.  Yes, that is more money in the short term, but the question is what will you do come next year?  You better hope that we can win, and with $4 Million less in cap space this year that may be an issue if we can't sign who we want.  What will the market be for a 30 year old quarterback who cannot be better than right around .500 even when managing a highly prolific offense? Think about that.  What would we do without you?  Kirk, the question you should be asking is what would you do without us.  You going to follow Kyle Shanahan to Denver and have to fight through another quarterback controversy for the next two seasons with Lynch and Siemian?  You going to go to Arizona and take a bigger gamble that their offensive line will holdup and not get you killed like Carson Palmer?  Maybe you can clean up Jay Cutler's mess in Chicago and spend the next three years in rebuilding mode, or take whatever ungodly contract the 49ers can offer you with their $87 Million in cap space and play for a different head coach every year.  Wait, I got it.  You can stick it to Robert again and go play for Cleveland.  That sounds like fun, right?  No, Kirk.  The best place for you is here.  You know the offense.  We'll keep as many players we can and add more to make it better.  We are on the cusp here of something great for the first time in 30 years in DC.  Sure, you could probably get more money elsewhere but it won't mean as much as it could if you bring a championship to DC.  We are close Kirk.  Take time to think about this offer and I'll see you tomorrow.  

There it is.  This contract would be pricey, but not much more than what we are paying Cousins now so the salary cap does not take a colossal hit.  The length may make some squeamish, but it is time to commit to someone who has shown he can get it done.  This contract is compensatory without being too over the top, and Cousins would at least have to think about signing it.  He will be 29 in August, and while he holds most of the leverage in these negotiations he must realize on some level that he will be gambling on himself again if he leaves for an unknown situation.  McCloughan would be wise to start at this point and try to negotiate the amount of guaranteed money without raising the per year cap hit.  If a deal cannot be reached then it is the franchise tag again for Kirk Cousins and another year of speculation that could possibly end with his ultimate departure from the Washington Redskins.