Saturday, April 23, 2016

The Josh Norman Signing May Have Big Consequences

Just when you thought that the Redskins have reformed their ways and they will act more prudent in the free agent market, the major free agents come knocking like some old girlfriend who knows she will at least be let in the door and the Redskins are all too happy to oblige.  Two years ago it was DeSean Jackson.  While people were skeptical about that signing this team would be in a very different spot without him and his contract did not break the bank.  Last year it was Junior Galette. Galette still needs to prove himself after his season ending injury but the Redskins got him at a big discount.  So if Galette can produce anything it will be a win for Scot McCloughan.  The signing of Josh Norman, though, is different.  Norman is being brought in to be the man and he is being paid as such.  His 5 year, $75 million contract makes him one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the league, and he is being brought in on a whirlwind courtship that began roughly 48 hours after Carolina decided to rescind the franchise tag on him.  To top it all off, the Norman signing used up eight of the eleven million dollars in cap space the Redskins had for this season.

This is vintage Redskins free agency; get the best guy for a lot of money no matter the repercussions. There was no way Norman was leaving Ashburn without a contract, and it was the right move to make, but it is the repercussions that need to be examined because this signing leaves the Redskins with very little room to maneuver within the Salary Cap.  The makeup of the Redskins roster and draft board will be shaken up by this signing, and the fallout from these changes may give the Redskins Brass a better negotiating position come next Spring.  Let's look at what could happen in the next few days leading up to the Draft:

1) Gacron and/or Jackson are all but gone.  I hate to say this, but it makes the most financial sense.  Either Jackson, Garcon, or both will not be playing for the Redskins come September.  Both are free agents at the end of next season anyway, and cutting Garcon alone will free up $8 million in cap space.  Jackson will only account for $6 million if he is let go.  It will be a hard decision because the Redskins need to weigh Jackson's deep threat ability with Garcon's toughness in the red zone and leadership qualities.  Whichever receiver is let go, look for any combination of Perry Riley, Logan Paulsen, and Chris Baker to follow them out the door as they are also slated to be UFA's at the end of the 2016 season and cutting them can add more cap space for the Redskins.

2) The Redskins will not be trading for more picks.  That is unless they can free up cap space by cutting players.  The projected cap hit (scroll down to the very bottom for the draft pick cap cost) for the Redskins current draft picks is $5.6 million, and if you factor those players into the Redskins current cap situation the Redskins are about $7 million over the cap.  McCloughan simply cannot afford to sign the 11-12 players he wants to draft unless he makes massive roster changes and restructures.  If there are not massive cuts made before Thursday, look for the Redskins to stand pat.

3) The Redskins will take at least two WR's in the draft, and one of them will be in the first three rounds.  This will be especially true if Garcon and Jackson are let go.  Even if they are not, it is hard to foresee Garcon and Jackson both being on this roster after this season due to the impending expiration of the contracts of Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed after this season.  The Redskins need to be thinking long term especially with Cousins's contract looming.  Speaking of quarterbacks.......

4) Do not be surprised if the Redskins draft a quarterback before the fifth round.  I sincerely hope this is not the case, but it will not be surprising given the circumstances.  The Redskins only have two quarterbacks on the roster for next season; one of whom is on a lucrative, yet tentative, one year contract and another who looks to be a backup for the remainder of his NFL tenure.  The Redskins may decide to draft an insurance policy that they could go forward with if the Cousins situation cannot be resolved by the end of next season, and the Norman signing has put Cousins contract negotiations in a precarious position.

5) The Norman Signing puts Kirk Cousins in a Catch-22.  Whether intentionally or unintentionally, the Redskins front office has put Kirk Cousins in a position where the only outcome will be the Redskins offering him less money again whenever they decide to sit down and negotiate.  Lost in the drunken celebration of the Josh Norman signing is the nugget that he will count $20 million against the cap next year.  The Redskins were skiddish about giving Cousins a long term $20 million per year contract before this signing, and now they will be even more leery of opening up the checkbook due to the sizable amount of money that Norman will be receiving next year.  The Catch-22 comes from the fact that there is nothing that Cousins's play can do to stop this low balling from happening.  Let's assume that the Redskins cut either Jackson or Garcon, and Cousins has a monster season throwing to the one that stays and Jordan Reed.  Reed and Jackson/Garcon's contract will be up at the end of the season, and it is not far fetched to think that the Redskins will low ball Cousins under the guise of The Redskins needing to resign the parts that made him successful.  If Cousins's play is mediocre then that alone will justify the Redskins throwing a low ball offer at Cousins, especially if they draft a quarterback who they think could do just as well for less money in the short term.  If the low ball offers come at the end of next season, it could be that Cousins decides to fly his bombing missions for someone else, and a big part of that could be due to the money they paid Norman putting a stangle hold on the salary cap.

The Redskins made the right move in signing Josh Norman, but the after effects of this signing will be felt for years to come.  It is up to McCloughan, and the Redskins front office, to make prudent decisions that will allow this team to operate within the salary cap.  That could mean that one or more of the above situations may happen, all because of the Redskins doing what they do best winning the offseason championship.


Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Redskins Draft Special

There are very few events that get their own countdown on ESPN.com.  The NFL draft is one of those events, and while the NFL has bastardized the Draft by spreading it out over multiple days it is still pegged as one of the premier prognosticating events for sports analysts.  With the Redskins publicly stating that they want to acquire four more picks than they have already, Mel Kiper may need to bring an extra can of pomade to keep his hair down trying to analyze the Redskins draft moves.  But trades are too complex to try and predict when they will happen, how they will happen, and with which of the other 31 teams the Redskins will deal with, so let's analyze the draft as if the Redskins will not trade any of their picks.  Here are the players SweetDCSports believes the Redskins should take at each position if the player is available, and not counting if they decide to trade out of that position.

Note: All scouting information came from CBS Sports and NFL Combine Results Page.  I used the projected rankings at each position on the CBS site to determine who would possibly be available in each round.  For example, If CBS projected someone to go in the 3rd round then I did not factor them being available to the Redskins in the 4th round.  Enjoy.

Round 1 (21st Overall Selection):  Andrew Billings    DT    (Baylor)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 311 lbs   40 yd: 5.05   Bench Press: 31 reps

The Redskins need to think long term at nose tackle after the departure of Terrance Knighton and Billings seems to be the right guy for the job.  His freakish strength allows him to overpower lineman, and he has a quick first step that allows him to elude his initial blocker.  Known for his closing speed and elite run stopping ability, Billings was also able to have his best pass rushing season in 2015 with 5.5 sacks.  He also fits the frame of a McCloughan type player: high motor, violent playmaker, durable (played 86 of 90 snaps against Oklahoma).  His shortcomings are that he has been noted to give up on plays if his initial rush proves unsuccessful, and he has trouble changing direction if the play gets past him.  He is also young.  He left Baylor after his true Junior year and he just turned 21 years old.  There may be concerns about his youth and how well he will acclimate to NFL life, but with Chris Baker and Kedric Golston in the locker room he would have great role models to help him out.

Billings would give the Redskins a nasty presence inside that will open up pass rush lanes for guys like Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Galette, and Preston Smith.  He also adds quickness in the middle of the line that will improve the line's ability to close in on running backs at the point of attack.  I think he is a much better fit for the Redskins than Jarran Reed and Sheldon Rankins, and if Billings is off the board before the Redskins are up look for McCloughan to trade down and possibly take Vernon Butler in the second round.  If Billings is available, though, I cannot see McCloughan passing on him due to the Redskins need for a true nose tackle to anchor the defensive line.


Round 2 (53rd Overall Selection):  Keanu Neal    Safety   (Florida)
Height: 6'0"   Weight: 211 lbs   40 yd: 4.62   Vertical: 38"

It maybe unrealistic to think that Keanu Neal falls to the Redskins at the 53rd pick. This could be a scenario where the Redskins trade down from their first round pick to put themselves in a position to get one of the higher ranked safeties, but Keanu Neal has to be the one the Redskins are looking at for their second round pick.  The Redskins are coming into the 2016 season with only four safeties total on their roster, and Neal provides a flexible luxury of having played both strong and free safety at Florida. While his 2015 stats do not pop out at you (83 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) maybe his highlight tape will show you why the Redskins should take him.  Scouts note that he is an enforcer that likes to bring the wood, which is evident in a lot of the hits he lays in this video.  It is concerning that half of the hits involve Neal dropping his shoulder and not wrapping up on tackles in space that will not fly in the NFL, but he shows the ability to be at least a serviceable strong safety. He also shows the ability to cover a wide range of field and he shows a knack for getting to the ball.  Finally, his size is second to none and he is characterized as a high motor guy who rarely fatigues.

Think of what the Redskins could do with a guy who can be interchanged at the safety positions, someone who can bring a physical presence on the edges of the defense, and run down wide receivers and running backs in the open field and make them pay with big hits.  Keanu Neal brings that type of presence to a secondary that was beleaguered at times in 2015.  His 6'0", 211 pound, long armed frame means he can match up with NFL wide receivers, and he boasts one of the best vertical jumps for safeties at the combine this year.  If he is available at 53 the Redskins would be crazy to pass on him, and I think he is a safer choice than Karl Joseph of West Virgina due to Jospeh's knee injury sidelining him since October.  McCloughan has to use an early pick to upgrade the safety position and Keanu Neal will be the best pick for the Redskins if they can get him.

Round 3 (84th Overall Selection):  Jerald Hawkins    OT   (LSU)
Height: 6'6"   Weight: 305 lbs   40 yd: 5.23   Bench Press: 23 reps

Hawkins possesses a lot of the attributes that you would want in a third round offensive tackle.  He has a season's worth of experience at both right an left tackle against SEC competition.  Hawkins's footwork allows him to get to his spots quickly, and his lateral movement gives him strengths in defending against speed pass rushers and opportunistic run defenders.  He has long arms that give him an imposing frame and he is quick off the snap, which allows him to set his blocks with a strong grip and hand placement.  And the knocks on him are even more promising.  Scouts have said that he lacks the proper strength to operate in the run game and to sustain blocks past the first level of run support.  Strength can be acquired through training and proper motivation.  The other minus against Hawkins in that his physical frame is too narrow and that there is limited potential for strength growth.  But as Yoda once said "Size matters not....Judge me by my size, do you?".

Hawkins's footwork and experience more than make up for his lack of elite level strength, and he would have time to develop his strength considering that he would not need to start right away.  The Redskins go into the 2016 season with only three true offesnive tackles, and Hawkins provides the luxury of having played both tackle positions at an elite level.  While Joe Haeg (North Dakota State) may provide better quickness, and John Theus (Georgia) may have slightly more experience, Jerald Hawkins can provide both with limitations that can easily be remedied.  McCloughan needs to start thinking about how to restock depth on the offensive line and Hawkins seems like a perfect fit for the Skins in the third round

Round 4 (120th Overall Selection):  Eric Murray    DB   (Minnesota)
Height: 5'11"   Weight: 199 lbs   40 yd: 4.49   Vertical: 39.5"

It may be tempting for McCloughan to take a running back at this position, but Murray seems to be a more solid pick than the projected fourth round running backs.  The Redskins need to add some depth at the corner position with Culliver coming off an injury riddled 2015 season, and Murray fits the bill of the players McCloughan is trying to recruit.  A three year starter at Minnesota, Murray was also named team captain his senior year and was lauded for his commitment on and off the field.  Murray is well versed in multiple coverage schemes, and while he only amassed two interceptions over his college career he was also able to break up 24 passes.  Scouts note Murray's superior coverage techniques as a byproduct of his penchant for watching film and diagnosing routes.  Murray also brings tenacity when stopping the run, where he consistently fights through blocks to bring the ball carrier down.  He does run a bit small at 5'11", and scouts note his lack of hip quickness when breaking out of his back pedal which may lead to Murray getting beat by vertical routes at the pro-level.  Murray, though, brings a huge upside of leadership, experience, confidence, and consistency that McCloughan has seemed to covet in his draft picks.

This is an area where if the Redskins trade down they could have their cake and eat it too.  Alex Collins, running back out of Arkansas, looks intriguing in this area as well, and if the Redskins are able to trade down and get extra picks in the fourth round we may see the Redskins select a CB and RB.  If the Redskins decide to stand pat, though, or only possess one pick in the fourth round it has to be Murray if he is available.  He possesses too much football IQ and versatility, Murray started 13 games on special teams his freshman year where he blocked two kicks, for the Redskins to pass him up.  Murray would add a wealth of experience and leadership to the Redskins secondary, and give them depth at a position that was hampered by injuries in 2015.

Round 5 (158th Overall Selection):  Willie Beavers   OT   (Western Michigan)
Height: 6'4"   Weight: 324 lbs   40 yd: 5.28   Bench Press: 20 reps

Depth at offensive tackle is a major area of need that the Redskins have, and they need to think about taking more than one in the 2016 Draft.  The Redskins would find themselves in a fortuitous position if Beavers was waiting for them at the 158th pick.  Do not let where he played turn you off.  Beavers possesses great quickness that allows him to set his blocks early and get down the field on runs and screen plays.  He has shown the ability to hold his block for as long as he can, and he does not quit when he initially gets beat off of the line.  Scouts note his ability to process defensive stunts and blitzes and react to them before they can cause havoc.  Finally, Beavers possesses the experience that McCloughan prefers in his selections.  Beavers is a redshirt senior who started 40 games at left tackle for the Broncos, and scouts at the Combine noted that he has the ability to play all over the offensive line given proper coaching.

The coaching part is where Bill Callahan will have to work his magic.  Beavers's weakness comes from his overly aggressive style of play.  He tends to get himself out of position because he is too gung ho in trying to set his blocks when the defenders are being more tentative and not coming right at him.  Callahan is the man for the job, though, and Beavers could blossom into a serviceable backup tackle for his first few NFL seasons.  With Beavers and Hawkins, the Redskins would have a viable insurance plan if Morgan Moses or Trent Williams goes down without having to force Kory Lichtensteiger to move away from Center where he has found a career renaissance.  Beavers could, emphasis on could, also become a viable option going forward as Trent Williams continues to get older.  His positional versatility, wealth of experience, and physical attributes would be a steal at this pick so do not be surprised if the Redskins take him earlier if they find trade partners to gain picks in the late fourth or earlier fifth round.

Round 6 (187th Overall Selection):  Darius Jackson   RB   (Eastern Michigan)
Height: 6'1"   Weight: 220 lbs   40 yd: 4.35   Vertical: 41"   Broad Jump: 133"

There is nothing wrong with your screen. You are reading those numbers above correctly.  Jackson posted those numbers at Michigan's Pro Day because he was not invited to the NFL Combine. Fairly impressive for a guy his size considering his vertical jump would have been the eighth best ever by an RB at the Combine and his broad jump would be tied for fifth.  The reason Jackson may not be getting more national hype is because he only had one full season as a starting running back. That was this past season as a senior where he was able to gain 1078 yards and score 14 TD's, but most of that was against MAC competition and most of his runs came out of read option shotgun formations.  The low level of competition that he faced coupled with the scheme that he played in at Eastern Michigan may have devalued his draft status, but his highlight reel shows his top level speed and above average pass catching ability.  Jackson also shows that he can make people miss in the open field and can pass block when given the opportunity.

With Alfred Morris leaving this off season, the Redskins need to think about adding depth to this position.  Jackson's workout numbers may make some teams take him earlier than his projected 6th round status, and one of those teams should be the Redskins if they get the chance.  Jackson's coaches at Eastern Michigan stated that he is one of their best practice players, and he would be a perfect hybrid of size and speed to compliment Matt Jones and Chris Thompson.  Jackson should be a target for the Redskins, and if he is still available in the 6th round with the Redskins still not having picked a running back, McCloughan should give Jackson the call to move to DC.

Round 7 (232nd Overall Selection):  Ricardo Louis   WR   (Auburn)
Height: 6'2"   Weight: 215 lbs   40 yd: 4.43   Vertical: 38"   Bench Press: 18 reps

If Rich Tandler's proposed dilemma goes in Laquon Treadwell's favor, the Redskins may not give Ricardo Louis the time of day in the seventh round if he is still there.  But the Redskins have more urgent needs in other positions, and Ricardo Louis would be a decent pick for the Redskins at the end of the Draft.  Louis is the receiver who caught "The Prayer at Jordan-Hare" two years ago, and he has since developed himself into a serviceable wide out.  Louis saw an increased work load after Duke Williams was dismissed from Auburn this season, and Louis took advantage by catching 46 passes for 716 yards and three touchdowns.  He also was able to rush for 158 yards and score one rushing touchdown.  Louis is touted as a great YAC receiver that uses his speed off the line and physical size to get separation and make tough catches on the sideline.  He is also agile in space and is not afraid of being physical at the end of his runs.  He was also one of the top wide receivers at the combine in the 40, vertical jump, and bench press.  The reason he is not rated higher is due to major concerns about his catching ability.  Louis is noted as dropping easy passes due to loss of focus, and there are added concerns that Auburn's scheme allowed Louis to exploit coverages more so than his physical attributes.

Let's see. Big, physical receiver that is good after the catch and can use his size to be physical with defenders.  Good thing the Redskins don't already have a receiver like that with a $10M cap hit turning 30 this year.  Oh, wait.  Not only will Pierre Garcon be turning 30 and be without a contract next year, DeSean Jackson will also be meeting all of those criteria at the end of the 2016 season as well.  Louis would be a low risk, high reward pick that can take at least one season to try and get his shortcomings in order while not being asked to do much on the field.  Louis sounds like he could fill Garcon's spot if he were not to be retained, or be a welcome compliment if Garcon were to stay.  The Redskins should be looking at a receiver, but I hope it is later in the draft and they give Ricardo Louis a look.

Round 7 (242nd Overall Selection):  Darrell Greene   OG   (San Diego State)
Height: 6'3"   Weight: 321 lbs   40 yd: 5.20   Bench Press: 28 reps

This would not be just a nostalgic pick, but somewhere deep down you know that Dan Snyder wants this guy on our team simply because of his name.  Darrell Greene is a red shirt senior from San Diego State who started 25 straight games for the Aztecs until he was suspended for the first six games of the 2015 season due to a positive marijuana test.  Greene started the final seven games in 2015, but the damage had been done to his draft status.  While this aspect of his college career may not mesh with what McCloughan is trying to build with this team, Greene's play on the field seems to be right up his alley.  Greene utilizes his quick footwork and mean disposition to overpower defenders and get to the second level on run plays.  Greene has shown the ability to be a good pulling guard due to his above average footwork, and he has been noted as being a solid pass protector.  Marijuana aside, Greene does have limitations in his game that have given scouts pause on picking him too high.  His short arms have allowed longer armed defenders to outwork him at times and force him out of position, which he is something he will have to deal with on a more regular basis in the NFL.  His blitz pickup and blocking on the move has been called into question, as well, but the big red flag for McCloughan will probably be the drug test.

Greene passes the McCloughan on the field criteria.  An offensive lineman that plays to the whistle and overpowers his opponents with his strength and determination.  Hopefully, the Redskins do their job and look into the drugs allegations, but this should be someone whom the Redskins peg as a huge value pick if he is still available at the end of the draft.  The Redskins running game took a big hit last year when people became injured and they had to rearrange the offensive line.  Greene would add depth to this position, and he would also be someone the Redskins could develop over time.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Ovi's 50 Needs to Make History for All

Alex Ovechkin put himself in exclusive company against the Blues on Saturday night.  His hat trick all but assured his fourth consecutive, and sixth overall, Rocket Richard Trophy.  Granted, this trophy only came into existence in 1998, but since that time no other player has won it more than twice.  Ovechkin is now the third player in NHL history to score 50 goals seven or more times (Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky did it 9 times).  He is the first player in NHL history to score 50 or more goals in three consecutive seasons twice (2007-2010 and 2013-2016), but this seems less of an achievement when you realize that Gretzky had eight consecutive 50 plus seasons and Bossy's nine 50 goal seasons were consecutive as well.  What people need to be focusing on is the age at which Ovechkin is accomplishing these feats, for both good and bad reasons, and what history we want Ovechkin to be making as Capitals fans.

Although Gretzky and Bossy never had a lull in their 50 goal scoring seasons, Ovechkin has now outpaced them in terms of longevity.  Both Bossy and Gretzky saw their last 50 goal season come before age 30 (Gretzky at 28 and Bossy at 29).  Ovechkin has become only the 9th player in NHL history to score 50 goals at age 30 or older and the first to do so since Jaromir Jagr in 2005-2006.  If you believe the notion that goal scoring is harder to come by these days, Ovechkin's 50 goals this season looks even more impressive since two of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history could not get 50 after 30 in an inferior defensive era.  But the "different era" argument is for those who wish to argue ad nauseam about the greatest of all time without really wanting to come to a consensus.  Ovechkin's goal scoring longevity will never surpass what made Bossy and Gretzky great, and Ovechkin is running out of time to achieve this in order to make him live eternally in the annals of NHL lore.

It may not have occurred to Capitals fans, but Ovechkin has yet to even play for a Stanley Cup.  That puts him on the short list with Jonathan Cheechoo, that is his real name, as being the only Rocket Richard winners to never have played in a Stanley Cup Final.  That takes a little bit of luster off of his 50 goal seasons when you realize that all other great goal scorers of this era were at least able to get their teams in position to win a championship, and most of them were able to scale the mountain top.  It is also sobering to know that only three players 30 or older have been able to score 50 goals and win a Stanley Cup in the same season.  They are Joe Sakic with the Avalanche in 2001, Joe Mullen with the Flames in 1989, and Phil Esposito with the Bruins in 1972.  All of this means that Ovechkin's time is running out, and remember that Father Time is undefeated.  While Ovechkin's 50 goals are an individual milestone it is the team's success that will put him into the stratosphere of NHL greats, and Ovechkin is playing with the best overall team of his career.  If Ovehckin cannot win it this year the future looks hazy, at best, as to what type of supporting cast he will have in his continued push for collective greatness. It is more than likely that we may see the departure of Jason Chimera and Dmitri Orlov this offseason, and what will Brian MacLellan do when  T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and Nate Schmidt are all looking for more money after the 2017 season?  If Ovechkin is to attain true greatness he will need to do what he did on Saturday night and lead the only NHL team he has ever known to their first Stanley Cup Championship.  If he does not, maybe he will donate all of his Rocket Richard Trophies to the Verizon Center so we can put them on display.

Please check out Jewels from the Crown where all of the goal scoring info was found.