Redskins vs. Giants: Into the Heart of Darkness

 When the Redskins walk into The Meadowlands on Thursday they will be entering a place that has haunted them for years.  Since 2000 the Redskins are 4-11 against the Giants in East Rutherford and they have been outscored 291-187 in those fifteen games.  The Redskins will also literally walk into darkness as they play at night, where they are 5-14 since 2000 in either Monday or Thursday Night games.  But alas Jay Gruden has espoused the mantra of a New Day for this Redskins team. The St. Louis game gave the fan base cause to buy into this notion, and the win against the Rams also forced the pundits of the world to come up with a better argument than condescending laughter to the notion that the Redskins can contend in the NFC East.  With the way the Giants have been playing it should not be outright lunacy to think that the Redskins can go on the road with their new found sense of grandeur and come out with a win that could cripple one of their challengers to the aforementioned division title.  But if 2007 taught us anything it is that the Eli Manning led Giants respond well to adversity, and they find themselves in the same position as in 2007; 0-2 and facing the Redskins.  If Washington expects to win in the Meadowlands for the first time since 2011 they will need to show that the Rams game was not a fluke, and the focus of this game plan should be on one man.

Kirk Cousins Needs to Drive the Offense:  This may sound crazy based on the way the Redskins have been able to run the ball the past two weeks, but the game plan should be focused on giving Cousins opportunities to move the offense.  Matt Jones and Alfred Morris are the best running tandem in the league, but it may surprise you that the Giants run defense has only given up 136 yards rushing and allows only 3 yards per rushing attempt.  The Giants know this and may take the advice of almost every talking head and load the box in order to try and stop the Redskins running attack.  If this is the case, and one can almost assume the Giants will at least try this, it means that Cousins will have to take control of this offense in order to keep drives moving on a defense that has given up 702 passing yards so far this season.  Those yards were given up to pass happy teams, but the Redskins may need to show that they can get a little pass happy in order to take pressure off of the run game.  Cousins already sports the fourth best completion percentage in the league (75.9%) and half of his completions have gone for first downs.  This means that he is asked to throw the ball in pressure situations in order to keep drives moving and he delivers in those situations more often than not.  This game will challenge Cousins to be more than a situational passer by seeing if he can make mid to long distance throws in order move the ball, and Sean McVay must give Cousins a game plan that allows him to throw the ball downfield.  Cousins will need to throw for over 250 yards if the Redskins expect to win in a game with less than 2 Giants turnovers.  Which brings us to the defense.

Secondary Needs to be on High Alert: The Redskins number one ranked defense may have benefitted from the fact that they did not have to face a top tier receiver the past two weeks.  They will Thursday when they face Odell Beckham, and he is the difference in an otherwise pedestrian passing game.  Eli Manning has a lower completion percentage, yards per attempt average, passing attempts, and passing yards than Ryan Tannehill so far this season so one begins to ask why should this week be any different than the past two for the Redskins secondary.  The answer is Odell Beckham.  He opened up last week and showed he can be a threat to score or get big chunks of yardage on every play.  The secondary must find a way to limit his big play ability, and keep his average under 15 yards per reception.  Aside from his 67 yard touchdown last week, Beckham averaged 11 yards per reception so anything over 15 yards per reception means Beckham is going for big catches that will lead the Giants to victory.  The secondary also needs to be on high alert for runs to the outside, and play action off of those runs.  The Rams were able to get the most yards on the ground from jet sweeps and runs away from the middle, and their touchdown was scored on a fake jet sweep that caught the corner looking in the backfield with no safety help.  You can bet the Giants will try to set the edges and test how physical the corners really are, and don't think they haven't noticed that the Redskins defense really has not been tested this year in the run game.  The Redskins have the lowest amount of rushing attempts against them in the league yet they give up the seventh highest yards per attempt.  Expect Culliver, Hall, and Breeland to be busy in both run and pass defense as the Giants try to favor the outside runs early to set up the Redskins cornerbacks for big plays later on. 

Unstoppable Force Meets an Immovable Object: The one area where the Giants stand out statistically is in the efficiency of their offensive drives, and it may be the key to this game.  The Giants have scored on 45% of their drives and average about 6.6 plays per drive.  The Redskins defense, however, has allowed teams to score on only 19.6% of their drives with an average of 4.9 plays per drive.  Something has to give.  Either the Redskins stymie The Giants' offense and allow their offense to have a chance to operate their brutal running assault with impunity, or the Giants field goal themselves into a position to hit Beckham on a long touchdown late in the game that forces the Redskins to abandon their run heavy approach.  Limiting turnovers and big plays will be the key to winning this nerdy stat game. 

This has the makings of a game that has an outcome that no one saw coming.  The Redskins' running game could be shut down to the point where Kirk Cousins needs to make plays on a regular basis and have a respectable NFL stat line.  The Giants could come out running the ball to test the Redskins defense in order to open up things for Odell Beckham and keep the Redskins defense on the field longer than they have been all season.  All of these will be attempted, but Morris and Jones do their best vintage Joker impression and show the Giants who the new beasts of the east are:


Score: 27-20 Redskins win.

Redskins vs. Rams: Whose Afraid of the St. Louis Rams?

This is a fair question to ask.  What makes the St. Louis Rams so special that the Redskins need to put on brown pants to hide their fear from the viewing public?  Could it be because the Rams are 6-2 against the Redskins since 2005?  Could it be their mauling defense that has five first round picks in their front seven?  Is it because the Redskins feel some sense of buyers remorse for the RG3 trade? Whatever the reason may be, if you absorb the main stream sports media you would think that the '85 Bears were coming to FedEx Field on Sunday.  While the Rams have a good defense they are not without their flaws, but so are the Redskins, so it will take some semblance of game plan and coaching that the Jay Gruden led Redskins have yet to show over the past 17 games.  While the media seems caught up with sack numbers (the Rams' defensive lineman combined for 22.5 sacks last season and combined for another 5 against the Seahawks in Week 1) and cute monikers (The
Rams are the most physical/nasty/competitive 6-10 team you will ever meet) the Redskins should be looking at their personnel and saying, "F these guys.  We are just as tough as they are and here's how we are going to ball control our way to winning this game."

Big Receivers = Big Game: Pierre Garcon and/or Jordan Reed (if healthy) need to be the focal points of a ball control offensive plan that relies on possession receiving first.  The Rams lost five of seven games last season when they allowed a receiver who was over 6'0" tall and weighed more than 200 pounds to go over 80 yards receiving.  Garcon and Reed both fit this bill, and their possession skills need to be in full effect if the Redskins expect to win.  If Garcon or Reed can go for eighty plus yards with a 7-9 yard per catch average it means the Redskins are taking longer drives that are looking to keep the St. Louis offense off the field.  It is not out of the question either.  The Rams' intimidating sack numbers from last year look less intimidating when you consider that Miami had a lower Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (6.2) than the Rams (6.7) last season.  A breakdown of those averages shows that the Rams had only one more sack than the Ndamunkong Suh-less Dolphins and still gave up over 300 yards more in passing on only three more passing attempts than Miami last season.  Within that difference in attempts the Rams also allowed 30 more completions that the Dolphins, so the Rams showed they can be susceptible to a possession style passing game but it will only be effective if two things occur.

Positive Running/Long Passing: Alfred Morris silenced all the Matt Jones trumpets last week by proving he is one of the best running backs in the NFL at getting positive yardage in tight spaces.  He is not the type of back who will hit the hole and take it 60 yards to the house, but he has the agility and vision to go for four or more on every single carry.  The Redskins need to take advantage of that by putting themselves in 2nd or 3rd and less than 7 situations more often than not so they can exploit those plays for long pass gambles.  No Desean Jackson means that it is time for Jamison Crowder, Rashad Ross, or Ryan Grant to prove they are good for at least one big pass play per game from the slot.  My money is on Ross who looks to have the best speed of the three, and deserves a legitimate shot at being the short term replacement for Jackson as the resident burner for the Redskins' receiving corps.  Either way, the Redskins will win this game if they can complete a pass play of 40 yards or more at least once and if they can manage the down and distance on each drive by running Morris 20 times or more.  Whatever the case may be, it will be for naught if the Redskins' defense cannot wake up from the...........

Nightmare of Tight End Seem Routes, Running Back Screens, and Special Team Returns:  The two leading receivers for the Rams last week were tight end Jared Cook and running back Benjamin Cunningham.  Those two positions have given the Redskins defense fits in the past, and if they want to win on Sunday they need to limit the production of at least one of them. Quick.  Name the leading wide receiver in receiving yardage from last week.  I know you fantasy degenerates picked up Tavon Austin this week, but it was actually Stedman Bailey who led the Rams' wide receivers in receiving yards.  We need to limit Cook and Cunningham in the passing game and force the Rams receivers to beat us.  And since Tavon Austin already returned a punt for a touchdown last week, you can believe he is licking his chops against the Redskins.  No TD's allowed by the special teams will mean a win for them, even if a return is stopped at the one yard line it means the Special Teams did not give up a touchdown.  What would be even better is for the special teams to actually learn from their mistakes and not give up big returns.  If the Redskins defense cannot contain the non wide receivers in the passing game, or Austin has a big day on punt returns, it may be hard to vanquish the Rams.

So who is afraid of the St. Louis Rams?  The Redskins shouldn't be.  The Rams should not be taken lightly, but statistically their defense is not any better than Miami.  If Washington can get a possession game going with a combination of Garcon, Reed, and Morris while getting one or two big plays and containing the Rams' running back and tight ends, we may be sitting at 1-1 going into New York next week.

The Nationals Need to Give Harvey What He Wants

The Nationals find themselves in as advantageous a position as they could have hoped for leading up to their three game series with the Mets.  They are four games back, their bats have come to life, and they seem to be playing at the level everyone expected them to be at all season long.  What is even better is that the Mets seem to be cooling off and possibly imploding right before our eyes with Matt Harvey's arbitrary innings limit that he failed to notify anyone of until about two days ago.  But don't worry Mets fans, he will pitch in the playoffs. If he can get there.  What the Nationals need to do is post this article around the locker room as fodder for merciless ridicule and to arouse visceral motivation that leads them to granting Harvey his 180 innings limit. The Nationals need to say things like, "This is the guy who compared himself to Batman because of how tough he was?" and "Are we going to let a team led by a guy who pulls this kind of crap take our division title away from us?".  The Nationals are as metaphorically close to the NL East lead as they have been since they were swept by the Mets in a three game series at the end of July that precipitated the Mets' rise to power.  Now, the man who led off on the mound in that series could be the undoing of his franchise's playoff hopes if the Nationals can channel some late season magic.

It seems that both franchises are coming to a Frostinian fork in the road.  The Nationals looked all but dead as they could not take advantage of the Mets' miscues in August and let the Mets' lead perpetually stay at six games.  The Nationals now find themselves only four games back, with their closer calling out their fans' passion and an opportunity to have a 1 in 23 chance of pulling even with the Mets if all goes to plan between now and Wednesday evening.  After the Mets swept the Nats in that three game series they went 16-6, and it seemed as if the Mets were destined to take the division from the Nats. The Mets have since gone 4-5 in their last nine games, and Harvey's innings limit fiasco must be causing at least some distraction based on David Wright's dreaded vote of confidence.
The Nationals and Mets' seasons seem to be showing signs of what statisticians call regression to the mean, but Matt Harvey's innings limit makes this three game series anything but average.


This series will feature the two pitchers whose shutdowns caused their respective fan bases to lose their minds when an innings limit was announced.  If it were up to the baseball gods, or if Vince McMahon were running the MLB, it would be Stephen Strausburg pitching on Tuesday, instead of Wednesday, opposite Matt Harvey.  There are similarities between when Strausburg was shutdown and Harvey's recent revelation .  Both the Mets and Nats were leading the division when it happened, it happened around the same time of year, and both were huge stories in the local and national media.  Harvey himself commented about being on an innings limit during the Strausburg shutdown due to the Mets wanting to keep him from wearing himself out at a young age in their AAA system.  He stated:

“I kind of knew [being put on an innings limit] was going to happen, so I kind of avoided thinking about it because that would just cause problems — clutter, as people would say. I just try to take it day by day. I’m going to prepare for the rest of the season even if they do shut me down. I’m pretty sure I’m still going to throw bullpens and stuff.”

Weird right, given the current sate of affairs?  This statement was made by Harvey in 2010, but life is a little different when you are the ace starter instead of some hot prospect.  The Mets are showing signs that they could be slowing down with their top player having to do damage control in the media rather than on the field.  It is time for the Nationals impose their own innings limit on Harvey by winning this series and putting themselves closer to being back in the position everyone thought they would be in at this point in the season. 
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