Saturday, May 26, 2018

Ovechkin's Legend Continues To Grow

Very few fan bases get to witness a legend being made right before their eyes.  Even fewer get to see that happen to someone who has already established themselves as one of the greatest players to ever play their sport, but that is what Capitals fans have witnessed over the last two playoff series.  Alex Ovechkin continued his march out of his stat compiler purgatory on Wednesday Night by winning a Game 7 on the road to win the Eastern Conference Championship.  That win caused a frenzied scene in DC that was a personification of the frustration that DC Sports Fans have felt over the last 25 years without cheering for a team in a championship capacity.  DC fans, though, should not see Ovechkin's feats this year in the playoffs as merely a necessary means to break an arbitrary curse.  They should appreciate it for what it is; one of the greatest players of his generation finally getting the chance to fulfill his destiny in a Washington Capitals uniform.  Few fan bases get to see something like this because it is not the normal way that sports legends are made.

When a player gets drafted to be the savior of a franchise it usually does not take them as long, or go through as arduous of a career, as Alex Ovechkin has to make good on that promise.  Usually the savior comes in and within 5-8 years they lead their team into a position to win a championship.  Look at Jordan, Lebron, Gretzky, Bonds, Kobe, Crosby (sorry Caps fans, but its true), or Peyton Manning.  These greats had early growing pains, but within a short time frame they were able to lead their teams to the championship rounds, and most of them were able to win it all.  Even stat mongers like Dan Marino and Karl Malone were able to get to the gates of promised land early on, even if they were never able to finish the job. Capitals fans, though, are watching a unique career arc that has made this Stanley Cup berth all the more special.  For twelve years Alex Ovechkin has garnered numerous individual accolades without even having a chance to compete for a Conference Championship.  He has had to persevere through numerous coaching changes, accusations of lax work ethic, yearnings from the fan base to trade him from Washington, and countless epithets about  how his time to win a championship had passed.  He now finds himself with a new centerpiece for his dining room table and chance to give Caps fans a storied career that no other fan base has witnessed.

This blog has written about Alex Ovechkin's championship futility time and again, and what it means for his place in the annals of DC Sports History.  If Ovechkin is able to win the Stanley Cup this year it will solidify him as the greatest athlete the DC area has ever seen.  Ovechkin has become one of the greatest goal scorers of all time, and he has taken a niche franchise and made it the toast of the town.  Even the Redskins are taking a back seat for the next two weeks as the Capitals try to bring the first professional championship to Washington DC in a quarter century.  Ovechkin has ignited the entire city, and he has drawn even the most novice of DC Sports fan into the Capitals' orbit through his perseverance through adversity.  No other major sports figure played 12 years in the same city and fought through countless write offs to finally deliver their fan base from misery.  Now he has the chance to achieve a level of greatness that no other sports figure has attained within the DC area, and he could give DC Fans a storied career that is unique to the DC Fan experience.  As the Caps take the ice in Las Vegas on Monday Night, Caps fans should keep in mind that Ovechkin has already made them privy to a unique making of a hockey legend and bringing a Stanley Cup to Washington will make them witness to the crowning of the new king of DC Sports. 

Monday, May 21, 2018

Legalized Gambling Will End the NCAA

The title of this article may be misleading, but there is no denying what came out of the Supreme Court's decision on last Monday.  The State of New Jersey won it's case against the NCAA, and now the legalization of sports gambling is in the hands of state legislatures.  What once was a vice that everyone tacitly accepted, despite it's resounding illegality in most parts of the country, could be as American as apple pie within a matter of months depending on the vigor with which each state decides to pursue the issue.  Hanging in the balance is the dogma of amateurism that the NCAA continues to crusade under despite rapidly changing times and lingering PR issues.  People have always bet on college sports, but the illegality of the enterprise made it taboo and harder for people to try and fix the outcome of games.  Now with the decision left to the whim of 50 state legislatures, the NCAA finds it's amateurism in peril because legalized gambling will eventually tear down the NCAA's money making monopoly through the inevitability of point shaving.  To understand why this will happen, let's look at how the Supreme Court came to their decision in this case because it outlines the NCAA's quest to bar state's from legalized sports betting.

The heart of the lawsuit brought by the state of New Jersey is centered around the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA).  PASPA was passed by Congress in 1992, and it was intended to stem the tide of sports betting.  Sports betting that had existed prior to PASPA was grandfathered into legality, i.e. sports books in Las Vegas, but PASPA made it unlawful for any future State, its subdivisions, or private entities “to sponsor, operate, advertise, promote, license, or authorize by law or compact ... a lottery, sweepstakes, or other betting, gambling, or wagering scheme based ... on” competitive sporting events.  This makes it sound like PASPA made it a crime for a state to legalize sports betting, but the funny thing is that it didn't.  PASPA only allowed the Attorney General, as well as professional and amateur sports organizations, to bring civil actions to prohibit violations.  And sue they did.  New Jersey tried to legalize sports betting in 2012 and 2014, even going so far as to put language in the 2014 bill that narrowed sports betting "only to wagers on sporting events not involving a New Jersey college team or a collegiate event taking place in the State", but that was not good enough for the NCAA.  They sued New Jersey under PASPA both times and won.  New Jersey appealed to the Supreme Court after the 2014 decision, and the Supreme Court on ruled in favor of the State of New Jersey.  Their reasoning was that PASPA violated the 10th Amendment, which states that the Federal Government cannot intervene in State Legislatures' decisions so long as they do not violate standing Federal Statutes, due to the ambiguity of what States were allowed to pass into law regarding sports betting.  If you're really interested you can read the entire Supreme Court Decision here, but this decision has massive ramifications for the NCAA that will lead to only one conclusion if they continue to be steadfast in their defense of amateurism.  Point shaving.

The idea that point shaving could be more prevalent in college sports with the legalization of sports betting has been met with vehement scoffing from those in the gaming industry.  The idea has been passed off as absurd, and that legalization will weed out the shadier side of sports betting and allow legitimate businesses to increase their already extensive policing apparatus for identifying point shaving scandals.  But why then put the language in the original bill that wagers on New Jersey college teams, or college events happening in New Jersey, would not be permitted?  Because the state of New Jersey knew that athletes making no money for an institution that makes billions would be ripe for bettors to influence if their actions were legalized.  The same people who scoff at the notion of point shaving are leading the charge for college sports to be put on the books for everyone to place bets, and therein lies the problem for the NCAA.  There are about 130 major college football teams and 351 basketball teams.  Until now all legitimate betting had to go through Las Vegas.  The Supreme Court now gives license for all states to have sports betting, and the NCAA now has some serious oversight issues on their hands.

The reasons that Las Vegas was able to identify point shaving schemes in the past was they had a monitoring system in place that was designed to notice irregularities with money coming in on certain games.  If there was a large sum of money coming in on Ohio State vs. Michigan football that may not be as unusual as a large influx of money for Akron vs. Eastern Michigan.  That is how they were able to bust point shaving scandals in the early to mid 90's.  But now the influx of money will increase everywhere, and the number of places those bets could be placed could grow exponentially.  A large increase in betting for an Akron football game may be odd in Las Vegas, but it may not be in Ohio.  Therein lies the problem for the NCAA.  They now have to worry that their almost 500 teams with tens of thousands of athletes will be susceptible to people placing bets all over the country.  And the bettors can now spread out their bets over multiple areas.  Hopefully legislatures think about that when they develop their gambling laws, but now some nefarious entity engaging in point shaving does not have to place $50,000 on one game in Las Vegas and arouse suspicion.  They could spread that out over multiple states to gain the same amount of money and not raise any red flags at any one casino.  I know, that is assuming that they get the same line in all places, but that goes to the point.  There will be so much betting to monitor that it is only a matter of time before the NCAA has a major point shaving scandal on their hands.  Think about how much money will be coming in on things like the National Championship games in football and basketball, and all the prop bets that surround those games.  Is it unreasonable to think that some bettor may offer money to a player in the National Championship to make sure that there are no more than 10 three pointers made in the first half so he can win his prop bet?  Or maybe there is a bettor in Mississippi who got a different prop bet and wants to make sure it pays off.  The idea is that betting will become so prevalent that it will be harder for casinos, especially ones nascent in the realm of sports betting, to pick up on the irregularities that are the initial indicators or point shaving scandals.  This difficulty will allow point shaving to occur, and it is only a matter of time before it occurs on a grand stage a la the Black Sox Scandal.  That is unless the NCAA is willing to lay down the sword of amateurism.

The longer the athletes in the NCAA don't get paid while the institution they play for, and now the fans that come to see them, make billions of dollars off of their talents, the higher the level of point shaving will occur.  The NCAA has to see that the legalization of sports betting all but eradicates the idea that amateurism is a viable vessel for college athletes to take them on their journey through their sport while keeping everyone's integrity intact.  The NCAA should finally look to paying these athletes in a manner that would hedge against the money that could come in to try and fix their games.  Give all schools a percentage of the money that the NCAA makes and place it into an account that cannot be accessed until they leave school.  The NCAA could give incentives for students to stay in school longer, get their degree, and maybe make it so that they can only receive the money if they achieve a certain GPA upon their exit.  Whatever the solution is, the NCAA should be coming up with ideas on how to get money to all of their athletes as quickly as possible. Because someone who has $100,000 on Maryland -7.5 at home against Rutgers may want to purchase some insurance on their 10 different bets they placed legally in 4 different states.  And with no compensation coming from the NCAA, they may find more than one player willing to accept.

Sunday, May 13, 2018

With Every Caps Win, The Redskins Lose

The Capitals Game 1 win over the Lightning is undeniable proof to all DC Sports fans that this team has what it takes to possibly bring the greatest trophy in all of professional sports to the Nation's Capital.  It is also proof that Caps are winning over a new generation of DC Sports fans at the expense of the Washington Redskins.  The Redskins are king when it comes to drawing the attention of DC Sports fandom, but for the first time their hegemony over the DC Sports landscape is under serious threat from a single entity.  The Washington Capitals have stolen the show this spring as they ended Washington's Conference Finals drought, and with every successive victory the Caps win over another portion of the fan base that has become disillusioned with the product coming out of Ashburn, Virginia.  The Capitals are winning over fans in all facets of the fan experience while the Redskins continue to rest on their laurels, and it begins with the team the Capitals have put together this season.

Everyone loves a winner, and the Capitals have certainly proven they can win, but people love a winner even more when they do it with resilience.  The Capitals have been one of the best teams in the NHL over the last decade when it comes to winning in the regular season, but those teams were more high flying flashy type teams that wilted under pressure.  The Caps this season have been more gritty.  No one expected them to do much, and yet they find themselves three wins away from playing for the Stanley Cup because they have proactively persevered through adversity.  They won the toughest division in the NHL this season.  They came back from down 2-0 in the First Round to beat the Blue Jackets.  They finally vanquished their nemesis without three of their top players playing for a majority of the series, and winning Game 6 on the road.  They won Game 1 against Tampa in a convincing fashion which no one thought possible.  The Capitals are winning with heart, but when was the last time that was said about any Redskins team?  RG3's rookie year?  Cousins' first year as a starter?  It is hard to remember a Redskins team that was called gritty or resilient, and no Redskins team has done that and reached the level the Caps have this season.  The Capitals are winning over fans by the level at which they play and the level they have reached in the playoffs, but signs of the Capitals take over of the Redskins' territory can also be seen in the fan experience over the past decade.

Forbes Magazine does an annual valuation of all professional sports teams, and a look at the Redskins and Capitals current value show signs that the Capitals are making headway into taking over a larger part of the DC Fan Base.  The Redskins are obviously worth more than the Caps in absolute value, but the Capitals have outstripped the Redskins in growth rate within the DC market.  Half of the Redskins value (54.5%) comes from the NFL revenue share, while only 19.9% can be attributed to market size and 7.3% can be attributed to their brand.  The last two percentages may be good indicators of how well a team markets themselves within their own city, and if that is the case the Capitals once again outstrip the Redskins.  The Capitals market size value is 41.3%, which makes sense considering they do not have a rival in Baltimore to contend with, but the Caps' brand value is also higher at 12.8%.  Wouldn't it make sense for the Redskins to have a higher brand value when they need to compete with a team that is a 90 minute drive away?  These values show that the Capitals are doing more to endear themselves to the fan base through promotion and savvy marketing techniques, and that they are making more of an effort to reach out to fans to try and draw them in.  DC fans have responded by spending more money at Capital One Arena than Fed Ex Field. 

Forbes Magazine also gives the numbers for net stadium revenue for each team, and the lack of growth in the net stadium revenue of the Redskins since 2010 is staggering.  The Redskins have only seen a 36% increase in revenue since 2010, which is the worst in the NFL since that time and it is not even close.  The Colts are the next closest to that number with a 45.1% increase, and the only other teams to have below 50% revenue increases are the Buccaneers and Raiders.  So the Redskins have shown poor growth relative to other teams in their sport, and it has nothing to do with the large amount of money they already made.  The only NFL teams in 2010 to have $300 Million or more in revenue were the Redskins, the Patriots, and the Cowboys.  The Patriots have seen an 80.8% increase in revenue for obvious reasons, and the Cowboys have seen a 100% increase in revenue.  The Cowboys increase has less to do with winning, and more to do with a new stadium being opened, but that goes to the notion that the Redskins stadium experience sucks.  Redskins fans are unwilling to spend money on the team and it shows in the Redskins' lack of revenue growth.  Compare those numbers to the Capitals who have seen a 78% increase in revenue since 2010 and it is not hard to see that the Capitals are providing a better fan experience at their stadium that fans have responded to in a more positive light through spending more money at Capital One Arena.  In fact, the Capitals 78% growth is fourth best in the NHL behind the Penguins, the Kings, and the Predators.  The Penguins and Kings have both won Stanley Cups in that time frame, but the Predators growth should be an omen to the Redskins of what could happen if the Capitals can just make the Stanley Cup Final.

Last year the Predators made the Stanley Cup Finals and put Nashville into a state of euphoria with their catfish and stadium experience.  They did not win the Cup, but that run created an organic frenzied scene around the Predators that carried over into this season.  Nashville was hungry for a winner and the Predators delivered, and the Capitals find themselves in a similar situation.  A generation of DC Sports fans have come and gone without seeing a winner, and they are finally getting one with the 2017 Capitals.  While the Capitals have slowly changed the gravitational fields within the DC Sports landscape through relentless marketing and a positive stadium experience, a Stanley Cup appearance would permanently draw the interest of everyone living in the DC Area.  The Redskins would no longer be the automatic choice for kids who grow up in this area because the Capitals win, and win with a style and stadium experience the Redskins cannot duplicate.  The Redskins have already been losing fans to the Capitals over this decade, and with every successive Capitals victory this year they draw more fans to a product that has a more likable team, a better fan and stadium experience, and a winning tradition.  Seven more victories, and the Redskins will need to share the spotlight with the new kings of DC Sports.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

The Caps Have Earned the Right to End the Curse

Be it in Game 6, or in Game 7, the Capitals need to be the team that cures the DC Sports Plague (Its not a curse, its a Plague).  It seems counter intuitive, but the Capitals have done everything they can in order to earn the right to be the team that breaks the misery that DC Sports fans have had to endure over the past two decades.  If the Capitals are able to finally make it to an Eastern Conference Final, and god forbid a Stanley Cup Final, they would ignite a DC Sports renaissance because of what they have come to symbolize for the DC Sports landscape.  The Capitals have embodied all that is good and bad about DC Sports over their decade of resurgence, and it is this cornucopia of characteristics that gives them the right to be the ones to end the malaise that all DC Sports Fans have been under since 1998.  The evidence for this argument falls within the answer to the question; Why are the Capitals more special than the other DC Sports teams?  Let's answer that question in all of it's facets.

Because they were the last DC Sports team to make it to a Conference Final
It would be poetic justice.  The last DC Sports team to make it to a Conference Final is the one that ends the plague (its not a curse, its a plague).  The Caps need to win because it would connect the current sports fandom to DC Sports history, and in these times the average sports fan is not tied into what happened more than three years ago.

Because Alex Ovechkin was the original Chosen One
Before Bryce Harper, before John Wall, before Stephen Strasburg, there was Alex Ovechkin.  Ovechkin was taken number one overall by the Capitals in 2004, and it was not just because the Capitals were awful.  They had given up all of their major pieces from that 1998 Stanley Cup Finals team, including the franchise's all time scoring leader Peter Bondra, in order to find themselves in the position to draft Alex Ovechkin. He was brought in to be the next coming, and he has fulfilled those obligations except for the one about team championships.  It is time that he gets the right to play for one.

Because the Capitals have given hope to DC over the past decade
While the Redskins sucked, while the Wizards were dealing with the Gilbert Arenas fallout, and while the Nationals were reminding Washington DC what baseball looked like, the Capitals were putting together consistent playoff teams.  The Capitals have made the playoffs every year since the 2007-2008 season except for one.  No other DC Sports team even comes close to that consistency, and along the way they have built up their fan base organically through winning and savvy marketing.  The Capitals have ingratiated themselves to a city that wanted a winner and a hip sports scene, and got it with the combination of Alex Ovechkin's play and Ted Leonsis's business acumen.

Because they stupidly traded away a superstar.
See Filip Forsberg.

Because they smartly traded for another.
See TJ Oshie.

Because they have endured a disappointment that no other DC Sports team has over the past 20 years
The Capitals were literally 1:41 away from defeating the New York Rangers in 2015 and going to the Eastern Conference Finals.  Instead, the Rangers won three games in a row to defeat the Caps in seven games.  In fact, the Caps have been eliminated from the playoffs in a Game 7 seven times since 2008.  No DC fan knows playoff pain like Capitals fans.

Because they have tried to build a team of immeasurable talent and failed
See 2017.  That team was hailed as the best team that had ever been assembled around Alex Ovechkin and they still could not get past the second round. 

Because in the after math of that collapse they came out stronger
This year was supposed to be a rebuilding year at best, and some were heralding it as the beginning of the end for the Ovechkin era.  But then something strange happened.  Somehow these players that no one thought could come close to the accomplishments of 2017's super team began to gel.  They pulled out tough games in the regular season.  They fought through adversity.  They gave Capitals fans something they have never seen before; a team that wins based on grit and determination more than talent level. 

That determination was on full display Saturday night as the Capitals defeated the Penguins 6-3 in classic 2018 Capitals fashion.  They fell behind early in the first period but took the lead late on a PPG and a successive hard working goal.  They subsequently squandered that lead in the second period by taking massive penalties, getting horribly out shot, and looking like they had given up on life.  But the Caps would not be deterred by those set backs, and like they have done all year, they found a way to win.  The Caps once again find themselves in a position to end 20 years of DC Sports misery, and the Capitals have earned the right to be the ones to cure this DC Sports Plague.  Twenty years of evolution has provided DC Fans with a sports team that has rarely been seen in Washington during that time. One that will not back down, that will not give up, that has been built organically to come to this point.  The Capitals need to be the ones to end DC Fans' misery on Monday Night.