Sunday, May 13, 2018

With Every Caps Win, The Redskins Lose

The Capitals Game 1 win over the Lightning is undeniable proof to all DC Sports fans that this team has what it takes to possibly bring the greatest trophy in all of professional sports to the Nation's Capital.  It is also proof that Caps are winning over a new generation of DC Sports fans at the expense of the Washington Redskins.  The Redskins are king when it comes to drawing the attention of DC Sports fandom, but for the first time their hegemony over the DC Sports landscape is under serious threat from a single entity.  The Washington Capitals have stolen the show this spring as they ended Washington's Conference Finals drought, and with every successive victory the Caps win over another portion of the fan base that has become disillusioned with the product coming out of Ashburn, Virginia.  The Capitals are winning over fans in all facets of the fan experience while the Redskins continue to rest on their laurels, and it begins with the team the Capitals have put together this season.

Everyone loves a winner, and the Capitals have certainly proven they can win, but people love a winner even more when they do it with resilience.  The Capitals have been one of the best teams in the NHL over the last decade when it comes to winning in the regular season, but those teams were more high flying flashy type teams that wilted under pressure.  The Caps this season have been more gritty.  No one expected them to do much, and yet they find themselves three wins away from playing for the Stanley Cup because they have proactively persevered through adversity.  They won the toughest division in the NHL this season.  They came back from down 2-0 in the First Round to beat the Blue Jackets.  They finally vanquished their nemesis without three of their top players playing for a majority of the series, and winning Game 6 on the road.  They won Game 1 against Tampa in a convincing fashion which no one thought possible.  The Capitals are winning with heart, but when was the last time that was said about any Redskins team?  RG3's rookie year?  Cousins' first year as a starter?  It is hard to remember a Redskins team that was called gritty or resilient, and no Redskins team has done that and reached the level the Caps have this season.  The Capitals are winning over fans by the level at which they play and the level they have reached in the playoffs, but signs of the Capitals take over of the Redskins' territory can also be seen in the fan experience over the past decade.

Forbes Magazine does an annual valuation of all professional sports teams, and a look at the Redskins and Capitals current value show signs that the Capitals are making headway into taking over a larger part of the DC Fan Base.  The Redskins are obviously worth more than the Caps in absolute value, but the Capitals have outstripped the Redskins in growth rate within the DC market.  Half of the Redskins value (54.5%) comes from the NFL revenue share, while only 19.9% can be attributed to market size and 7.3% can be attributed to their brand.  The last two percentages may be good indicators of how well a team markets themselves within their own city, and if that is the case the Capitals once again outstrip the Redskins.  The Capitals market size value is 41.3%, which makes sense considering they do not have a rival in Baltimore to contend with, but the Caps' brand value is also higher at 12.8%.  Wouldn't it make sense for the Redskins to have a higher brand value when they need to compete with a team that is a 90 minute drive away?  These values show that the Capitals are doing more to endear themselves to the fan base through promotion and savvy marketing techniques, and that they are making more of an effort to reach out to fans to try and draw them in.  DC fans have responded by spending more money at Capital One Arena than Fed Ex Field. 

Forbes Magazine also gives the numbers for net stadium revenue for each team, and the lack of growth in the net stadium revenue of the Redskins since 2010 is staggering.  The Redskins have only seen a 36% increase in revenue since 2010, which is the worst in the NFL since that time and it is not even close.  The Colts are the next closest to that number with a 45.1% increase, and the only other teams to have below 50% revenue increases are the Buccaneers and Raiders.  So the Redskins have shown poor growth relative to other teams in their sport, and it has nothing to do with the large amount of money they already made.  The only NFL teams in 2010 to have $300 Million or more in revenue were the Redskins, the Patriots, and the Cowboys.  The Patriots have seen an 80.8% increase in revenue for obvious reasons, and the Cowboys have seen a 100% increase in revenue.  The Cowboys increase has less to do with winning, and more to do with a new stadium being opened, but that goes to the notion that the Redskins stadium experience sucks.  Redskins fans are unwilling to spend money on the team and it shows in the Redskins' lack of revenue growth.  Compare those numbers to the Capitals who have seen a 78% increase in revenue since 2010 and it is not hard to see that the Capitals are providing a better fan experience at their stadium that fans have responded to in a more positive light through spending more money at Capital One Arena.  In fact, the Capitals 78% growth is fourth best in the NHL behind the Penguins, the Kings, and the Predators.  The Penguins and Kings have both won Stanley Cups in that time frame, but the Predators growth should be an omen to the Redskins of what could happen if the Capitals can just make the Stanley Cup Final.

Last year the Predators made the Stanley Cup Finals and put Nashville into a state of euphoria with their catfish and stadium experience.  They did not win the Cup, but that run created an organic frenzied scene around the Predators that carried over into this season.  Nashville was hungry for a winner and the Predators delivered, and the Capitals find themselves in a similar situation.  A generation of DC Sports fans have come and gone without seeing a winner, and they are finally getting one with the 2017 Capitals.  While the Capitals have slowly changed the gravitational fields within the DC Sports landscape through relentless marketing and a positive stadium experience, a Stanley Cup appearance would permanently draw the interest of everyone living in the DC Area.  The Redskins would no longer be the automatic choice for kids who grow up in this area because the Capitals win, and win with a style and stadium experience the Redskins cannot duplicate.  The Redskins have already been losing fans to the Capitals over this decade, and with every successive Capitals victory this year they draw more fans to a product that has a more likable team, a better fan and stadium experience, and a winning tradition.  Seven more victories, and the Redskins will need to share the spotlight with the new kings of DC Sports.

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