John Wall Needed to Win More Than Anyone

Monday's Game 7 loss was another hard pill to swallow for the DC area.  Another ray of hope to end the nearly two decade drought of not making a Conference Final was dashed by another improbable performance by a fringe player.  Kelly Olynyk's 26 point performance will go right up there with Jaroslav Halak in the dark annals of DC Sports playoff misery.  One positive to come out of this playoff series, though, was the rise of John Wall as a DC icon.  Wall's game winning shot in Game 6, and his plea to the crowd on the scorer's table at the end of the game, had some anointing him as the premier sportsman in the DC area.  Wall's emotional outburst on the scorer's table was the personification of his passion for the city of Washington DC, and it was the type of moment that endears a player to the fan base.  The problem for Wall was that he did not deliver in Game 7.  A DC superstar player losing in a Game 7 is nothing new, but Wall and the Wizards squandered an opportunity to become the toast of the town.  They could have been the ones to break the streak, and for Wall that missed opportunity goes beyond just not making the Eastern Conference Finals.  Wall needed to win that game to be the unquestioned top dog in the DC sports market, but instead there will still be doubts in this area created by the accomplishments of other players, fans of other DC sports, and the way the NBA markets it's product.

There is nothing inherently special about John Wall's presence here in the DC area. The Wizards winning the Draft Lottery in 2010 to have the opportunity to pick Wall was surprising, but Wall is one of four number one overall picks in this market who have made an impact in their respective sports.  Alex Ovechkin has become the greatest goal scorer of his generation and led the Capitals to unprecedented popularity.  Bryce Harper is one of the premier hitters in baseball, and he and Stephen Strasburg have led the Nationals to become one of the best teams in baseball.  So John Wall being a number one overall pick who has delivered on his prospective talents is nothing new for this area.  John Wall needed to be the one to end the Conference Finals streak in order to separate himself from this pack, and also to win over DC fans who maybe brainwashed by NBA marketing.

The NBA is a sport that glorifies the elite.  Think about it in the terms of other sports.  How many Redskins fans wearing Kirk Cousins jerseys would say, "You know I'm a Redskins fan, but when Tom Brady (or other superstar QB) comes to town I gotta root for him"?  Not many because the NFL markets the team and each local fan base buys into that notion.  There is no Capitals fan who would root for Connor McDavid when the Oilers come to DC because 98% of the fan base (myself included) does not have the capacity to appreciate the finer points of hockey, Caps fans have had time to generate an intense loyalty to Ovechkin, and 10% of the fan base doesn't even know what city the Oilers play in.  The Nats/Orioles hedging still goes on, but few Nats fans nowadays have both a Bryce Harper jersey and a Mark Trumbo jersey. The NBA is different.  The NBA markets the elite players to everyone around the country, and in a transient area like DC it is hard for someone like John Wall to overcome that.  How many John Wall fans wear Jordans?  How many kids wear Golden State gear when that team is 3000 miles away?  How many casual Wizards fans will root for LeBron when he comes to Verizon Center?  The fact that you have to seriously ponder these questions means that John Wall faces the hardest road of any DC sports figure in winning over the fans.  The NBA markets it's top players to everyone around the country, and the Wizards have been so bad for so long that there is a significant portion of the area that gloms onto Curry and LeBron because they are winners.  Wall could have erased that in Game 7, but alas the DC fan base is left hoping yet again.

Emotionally, John Wall has won over this city but that sentiment is fleeting.  Winning is what this city wants, and Wall could have stripped the title of top DC sports figure with one win on Monday Night.  In an event driven town such as DC, think about the run Wall would have gotten going head-to-head with LeBron and God forbid possibly winning a few games.  Had that happened there would be no question about which individual sports figure is the biggest in DC.  Now, questions still remain and the doubt is still there.  Wall is tied at the top with people like Cousins, Harper, and Ovechkin, but he has the hardest road ahead of him and the longest time to wait to get another shot at winning.

The Capitals Motto: I Will Remember Before I Forget

One resounding message from the Capitals locker room Wednesday Night was that the team was angry.  Angry that they let the best assembled team in the Ovechkin era go to waste yet again.  Angry that they had to exit the playoffs before even getting a chance to play for a championship yet again.  Angry that despite the resounding sentiment that the Capitals had all the momentum going into Game 7 they let their nemesis best them yet again.  And with all this anger, what better motto to adopt for the Capitals to explain that anger than a line from a Slipknot song.  The Capitals Game 7 collapse can be comprehended through the lens of this motto.  This motto also should be adopted by the fan base as well because this motto could define what we see out of the support for the Capitals from the fans in this area going forward.  Capitals fans and the organization stand at a crossroads, and it is this saying, "I will remember before I forget", that needs to be addressed at this point to see how this pivotal point in franchise history could shape the team going forward.

Game 7 proved that for all the talk from the team about how they had forgotten their playoff past, they remembered it more than they thought.  The Capitals dominated the Penguins in the first period in every facet except for the score, and a little tick in the back of their head started to creep in. They launched a fury of shots that did not go in, and Shattenkirk's PP shot that rang off the post started to weigh on them.  Then Bryan Rust scored in the second off of a poor clearing attempt and there was this looming sense of dread that filled the Capitals.  It was happening again.  They started to press more, pass too much, and not return the favor when the Penguins made horrendous exits out of their zone.  This dread grew to a crescendo when Patrick Hornqvist scored in the third period and there was this visceral reaction of defeat from the Capitals.  The fans could feel it through the TV.  The Capitals play in the last 15:00 of Game 7 showed that the memory of all the playoff collapses were still lurking in their subconscious waiting to be awoken again like some hibernating animal.  Everyone watching had the same reaction, "This cannot be happening again", and unfortunately the Capitals embodied that notion.  The weight of every playoff collapse in the Ovechkin era was on display Wednesday night in the last 15:00 of Game 7 and it shows that the Capitals have not forgotten anything about the past.  The problem is compounded by the fact that the fans have not forgotten as well.

Everyone knew it in the back of their mind.  Even before the game when fans said that the Capitals have this game in hand it came with a certain break in the voice.  A certain change of pitch.  A certain lowering of tone that would make someone think that if it was said too loud that it would conjure the devil.  For all the prognosticators saying this was a different team, there was the cynical fan that had an equivocation to go along with their optimism.  Some brought up Jaroslav Halak.  Some brought up all the stats about how the Penguins own the Caps in the playoffs.  Some brought up the Caps abysmal Game 7 record.  It was clear that the fans have not forgotten all the past playoff failures of this franchise and that is a problem.  It is a problem because this fan base is beginning to expect a return on their investment.  The "Rock the Red" era was built on fans who wanted to ride the hot ticket (myself included) and they sure got it from the Capitals.  But that regular season success has now translated into entitlement.  These Caps fans feel as if they built this team themselves and that their loyalty has been betrayed time and again by these playoff failures, the worst of which came in Game 7 on Wednesday Night.  They remember all the playoff failures and they are apt to bring them up when suggesting the Capitals trade Ovechkin and blow up the team because their fandom has not been rewarded.  These fans have forgotten a most dire period in Capitals history, and it is relevant at the current time where the fans and the franchise face an uncertain future.

The fan base needs to remember the dark times.  They need to remember what happened the last time the team sold off all of their superstars and finished next to last in the Easter Conference between 2003-2007.  The fans need to ask themselves if it is worth possibly giving up these playoff runs for three to five years to rebuild after trading someone like Ovechkin, Backstrom, or both.  And how loyal will some of these fans be if the Capitals are a shell of their former selves due to trading away their superstars?  Will they be willing to support a team that may not make the playoffs for a few years?  The fans need to ask themselves these questions before they start spouting off about how this team needs to be blown up. They also should consider it when this team will be losing some of the main pieces that have allowed them to the Presidents Trophy over the last two years.  The "Rock the Red" era is officially over, and we will now see how many fans are willing to remember the success this team has had before they forget it.  If not we may see the exodus of the portion of the fan base that was on board because for the experience and not true fandom.

As the fan base needs to remember the dark times, the team needs to forget them.  This team will stay relatively intact for next season, and it is obvious that they have internalized all these playoff defeats.  They need to forget them as best they can.  Trotz's comments may have rubbed the media the wrong way, and laughter may not have been the best choice of words, but his message needs to be adopted by the team.  The team needs to forget these defeats and remember that they are one of the most talented teams in the league, and they will still be even with the departure of some of these free agents this off season.  They need to release these internal demons if they expect to ever conquer them, and this Game 7 loss will probably take the entire of season to recover.  The team, tough, needs to ask themselves whether they will let this loss define who they are, or if they will forget all the losses and start a new narrative come next season.  The "Rock the Red" era is over, but if the remaining players carry the same baggage with them then all that will leave is the name.  The results will be the same if the Capitals remember before they forget all these playoff losses.

Ovechkin's Possible Farewell Speech

In the immortal words of DMX, "Here we go again".  The Capitals find themselves on the brink of elimination in the second round of the playoffs and again the Penguins are on the opposing side.  This scenario has happened so many times over the past decade that you would think the team and the fan base's acquiescence to failure would numb them into a stupor of denial once again.  But this year is different.  This year could mark the end of an era with all the impending free agent signings/decisions the Capitals need to make this off season, and the Ovechkin trade rumors gaining more traction in the wake of another perceived playoff collapse.  Even if the Capitals somehow comeback against the Penguins and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals there will still be drastic changes to the Capitals' roster due to the fact that there are too many high profile free agents to sign and limited cap space.  The greatest iteration of the Capitals roster in the Ovechkin era will come to a crashing end whenever the Capitals decide to exit the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season, and it very well could be tonight, which is why Ovechkin needs to give a kick ass pregame speech tonight.

The Capitals have been built around the greatest goal scorer of his generation, and he needs to be the one to deliver the speech that could possibly bring the Capitals back from elimination.  The speech, though, needs to be more heartfelt and emotional rather than a rah rah type speech.  You would assume that over the past four games the Capitals have gotten in each others' faces, called out people's names, broken enough sticks on their lockers, and used the F-word like its going out of style that another speech like that would ring hollow at a time like this.  Ovechkin needs to be the one to address the whole team tonight in a way that gives the team a renewed sense of brotherhood, and in my opinion here is how it should go:

"Alight boys, listen.  Tonight could be our last game together so listen closely.  I've had some pretty good success in my career:  Heart Trophies, Rocket Richard Trophies, goal scoring milestones, but I have never been a team champion at the highest level.  For all my success, I have never been able to inspire the teams I have played on enough to win it all.  That is why I am skating with Lars and Willy tonight, because my play so far has not lived up to the "C" I wear on my sweater or the pedigree I have built.  I asked to switch lines [this is just an assumption on my part but just go with it] because Bura has been killing it and I have been dragging TJ and Nicky down so far this series.  I have to face reality that I am not the goal scorer I was 10 years ago.  Think about that Nick [Ovechkin looks at Nick Backstrom in a reminiscent way].  Ten Years together.  The Young Guns, remember?  Hmfh, Not so young now, I guess. Right John? Karl? Beags? Ten years.  Some players don't get half that time to play together in this league, but we have had the privilege to be on the same team for Ten Years.  And we have been able to bring up guys like you Schmidtty......Kuzy..... Bura.........Willy.....Orly.....Holts........[Ovechkin looks at each one of them in the eye] you guys haven't been here as long but this is the only NHL team you have ever known.  You guys have put on a red sweater for your entire NHL career and not thought twice about it.  And when TJ, Justin, Winnik, Nisky, Brooks, Shatty, Lars, when you guys came in it was like we never missed a beat.  We're a family, but we know what is coming.  Most of us will not be here next year. The family is getting broken up after this season whether we win or not.  Ten years, Nick.  Ten years could be over tonight.  It will be over no matter what after these playoffs.  Which is why I ask you to play for that.  Fuck the Stanley Cup.  I want those ten years to last a little longer.  I want to play with the best team I have ever played with a little bit longer.  I want to see TJ score from the slot as many times as I can, I want to see Karl shut down the other team's best line, I want to see Willy check people as hard as he can, I want to see Kuzy make some ridiculous move and put a wrister over the goalie's glove, I want to see Winnik forecheck the shit out of the other team's top line, or Shatty unload some ridiculous shot from the point.  That is what I want, boys.  I don't want Ten Years to end.  I want to keep the only team I have ever known together for a little bit longer.  I'm playing tonight because I want to see all of you wear that red sweater for as long as possible.  I'm not playing tonight for any trophy.  I'm playing for my brothers who I want to keep here as long as I can.  From now on we play for each other, and if that means we get out of this series alive, then we know we have already won, because we get to have those Ten Years last one more game.  Let's go boys."

That is the route I would take with this speech, but that is just me.  And Ovi, since I know you read this blog religiously, please feel free to use any part of this you would like.

Kirk Cousins's Value Is Dropping

Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?  Good.  This is a quasi rhetorical question but I had to ask it in order for you to be in the right frame of mind to buy into my premise, which is that the teams trading up to take rookie quarterbacks in the first round in the NFL Draft have harmed Kirk Cousins's market value.  It may sound crazy, but ask yourself that question again.  Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?  Do you believe him when he told JP Finley almost a month ago that the trade rumors surrounding Cousins were false?  One look at that one minute interview gives you an uneasy feeling about Allen's stance on Cousins's contract situation.  So it is not far fetched to think that the rumors stating that the Redskins were talking to the Browns about trading Kirk Cousins held some shred of truth.  It is also likely that, despite Allen's vehement denials, the Redskins may have thrown some lines out to other teams before the Draft to see if they would bite on a trade for Cousins.  If you believe these statements then Cousins and his agent, at the very least, had to assume that the Redskins were looking for trades as well.  If that is the case then Mike McCartney may need to rethink how to approach the calculation Cousin's market value based on the trades that happened in the First Round of the Draft.

The trades the Bears and Texans made to move up in the draft to select rookie quarterbacks have indirectly harmed Kirk Cousins's market value.  Let's assume that the Redskins at least talked to the Texans and Bears about a possible trade for Kirk Cousins before the Draft (remember: Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?).  The Bears and Texans had ample resources and equally crappy quarterback situations that the Redskins probably exploited in the form of trade talks for Kirk Cousins.  If that is the case then the Texans trade for Deshaun Watson states that Cousins is not worth the 2018 first round pick that they gave up to get Watson.  Maybe the Texans didn't think that the Redskins's 17th pick would be high enough to have Watson still on the board, but it can be reasoned that the Texans were willing to trade their 2018 first round pick for Watson but not for a guy who has had back to back 4500 yard passing season in the NFL.  The Bears trade puts even more of a damper on Cousins's value.

Let's assume that the Redskins reached out to the Bears about a trade for Cousins before the Bears signed Mike Glennon (remember: Do you believe anything Bruce Allen says?).  If that is the case then the Bears trade to get Mitch Trubisky devalues Cousins market value further.  If the Bears declined a trade for Cousins then subsequently gave up only a 3rd and 4th round pick this year, plus their 3rd round next year to the 49ers for another unproven quarterback then it reinforces the notion that Cousins may not be worth giving up high drat picks on the open market.  Now, the Bears gave up those picks knowing they had Glennon on the roster, but if the Redskins offered the Bears a trade for Cousins before the Mike Glennon deal then you would have to assume that the Redskins asked for something higher than what the Bears gave up for Trubisky.  This would show, again, that another team with a questionable quarterback situation was willing to give up draft picks for an unproven rookie rather than for Kirk Cousins.  Both of these situations, if true, could make it so that Cousins may be sobered by his market value a year from now.

The Texans could have traded their 2018 first round pick for Cousins and then see where that took them.  The Bears could have traded their 2018 first round pick to get Cousins AND possibly could have still drafted Trubisky at the third pick this year.  But both teams balked at that notion.  The Redskins could have had a higher asking price in these hypothetical trade scenarios that turned off the Texans and Bears trading for Cousins, but that supports the notion that teams are unwilling to give up a lot for Cousins and are not willing to wait and see if he hits the open market.  Why pay a soon-to-be 30 year old quarterback $24 million per year with $50-60 million plus guaranteed over the next five years when, according to Jason Belzer of Forbes Magazine, the Bears will only have to pay out $29 million total for the duration of Trubisky's rookie contract?  If this is true then this may be the first blemish on Kirk Cousins's master plan.

The pervasive narrative that has surrounded the Kirk Cousins contract negotiations is that Bruce Allen has botched it from the beginning in giving Cousins two consecutive franchise tags.  This weekend's Draft, however, may be hinting that Allen is playing a long game with these tags that may end up in the Redskins favor.  Whether you believe the Redskins offered Cousins in trade to the Texans or the Bears, the fact is now there are two less suitors to help drive up the price for Cousins's services come next off season.  Couple that with one early 2018 mock draft stating that there could be four quarterbacks taken in the first round next year (and that is not counting whether or not Lamar Jackson decides to leave Louisville early), and the cap situation next year for all NFL teams and Kirk Cousins and Mike McCartney may need to have a serious talk about what the actual market value will be come the 2018 off season.  Who is going to pay a 30 year old Kirk Cousins $50-60 million plus in guarantees over 5 years when they can just draft a quarterback for a fourth of that cost?  And if there are a limited amount of teams willing to bid on Cousins's services, then why not bid low and see what happens if the team is looking to spend money elsewhere?  All of this is dependent upon what transpires through this season, but two teams have already passed on Cousins for what seem to be statistically inferior alternatives.  What will happen next year when the rookie talent pool is bigger, better, and the free agent market is a little more flush with talent?  Cousins could be staring down the grim reality that Allen may have manipulated his contract situation through the use of the franchise tags in a way that made him less valuable on the open market when and if he is finally allowed to hit free agency.  The question then may not be whether you believe what Bruce Allen says, it may be "Was Bruce Allen right all along about the market value of Kirk Cousins?".