Redskins vs. Lions: Dueling Quarterbacks and Playoff Implications

When the Redskins roll onto Ford Field on Sunday, they will be facing two major factors that have arisen due to their ascendance to the upper echelon of the NFC.  The first is the Kirk Cousins situation.  Cousins has played about as well as he could over the Redskins current four game win streak, but he faces a nemesis (and part time Haley Joel Osment impersonator) that he needs to vanquish with stats this week in order to keep the Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 rolling on.  Since 2010 Matt Stafford is 7th in total passing yards, 8th in touchdowns, and first in speculative contracts that may break the bank.  Cousins has not really out dueled any quarterback of note this season, but he more than likely will get his opportunity this Sunday against Stafford and he needs to deliver if he wants that long term deal at the end of the season.

The second factor the Redskins will face can be summed up in the immortal words of Jim Mora. Yes, that is correct.  In all the euphoria of the Redskins four game win streak, it has not been said enough that the Redskins currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the NFC.  They hold a one game lead over the Rams, Eagles, Giants, and the team that will be on the other side of the ball on Sunday.  This game holds early playoff implications, as a win would improve the Redskins's conference record while putting the Lions two games behind them in the Wild Card.  The Redskins already have one loss that will come back to haunt them later in the season in some way (the loss to Dallas), so there should be a hint of playoff atmosphere against a team the Redskins have not beaten since 2008.  It will not be an easy out as the Lions look to stay in the playoff race, but here are the key aspects of the game.

The Lions Giveth, and Lions Getteth:  The Lions give just as much as they get.  Their offense is dangerously efficient as they have eight less drives than the Redskins, but average almost two points more per game.  Those stats are good enough for a scoring percentage of 44.6%, which is 7th best in the league.  They also have the second best plays per drive (6.9) and third best yards per drive (37.4) in the league, which means that their offense can move the ball for long periods of time. The problem is that their defense allows other teams to do the same.  The Lions are giving up scores on 46.6% of opponents drives, which is second worst in the league, and allowing a league worst 39.3 yards per drive.  Couple this with the Lions defense only forcing four turnovers all season and giving up a league worst 73.7% completion percentage, and Kirk Cousins should be looking to have a field day.  The key will be to keep Matt Jones involved in the run game and utilize short passes to beat the Lions at their own game.  The Redskins are right behind the Lions in scoring percentage and yards per drive, so they should be looking to exploit a Lions defense that likes to keep teams on the field. The team that wins the offensive possession and efficiency battle will have the upper hand.  If the Lions are able to score on a majority of their drives and the Redskins cannot answer, the Redskins may be forced into a pass happy offense that could get them in trouble.  The Lions, though, may be more equipped to handle a high paced game with the addition of their new superstar.

Starscream Now Leads the Decepticons:  When Calvin Johnson left after last season, the Lions were staring at an offense whose second leading receiver was Theo Riddick.  Enter Marvin Jones, who has been born again hard after leaving AJ Green's shadow in Cincinnati to become the Starscream to Johnson's Megatron, and who is leading a deceptively formidable receiving core.  Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin showed last week that the Lions have claws outside of Jones that can tear up defenses, and the Redskins should take notice.  Jones and Tate can stretch the field with their speed, and Boldin is that guy who can kill defenses on possession routes and red zone plays.  The Josh Norman Wheel of Fortune will be spinning out of control this week, and it will be up to Joe Barry to use Norman in a prudent manner to keep the Lions's hot receiver in check.  It will also be up to Barry to continue this defensive renaissance because it will be where the Redskins win or lose this game.

Defensive Pressure:  The Redskins defense has pressure on it.  The offenses this week are evenly matched, and it will come down to which defense can get the other offense of the field by any means necessary.  Turnovers may be at a premium for the Redskins defense as the Lions have only turned the ball over five times this year, but the Lions have also allowed 15 sacks.  With the absence of Theo Riddick this week, Stafford has lost one of his safety valves that may force him into longer reads.  The Redskins front seven must continue to get pressure and not force Barry to commit corners and safeties to the QB pressure cause.  If that happens we may see either Tate or Jones go for some
big gains.  It is also interesting to note that the Lions have more rushing attempts than the Redskins this season but average 20 yards less per game. The Lions still gave 19 carries last week to a combination of Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, and with the Redskins still allowing 124 yards per game on the ground, look for the Lions to feed the ball to their running backs to keep short down and distances.  If the Redskins allow the Lions to have anything more than moderate success on the ground it could be a long day for the defense as they may find themselves on the field for long periods of time.  The Redskins's front seven needs to have a big day in run stoppage and pass rush in order to take the pressure off the secondary who will have their hands full.

All of this leads to another game where the Redskins's resiliency will be tested.  The Redskins reborn running game needs to be in full effect, and they should use all three backs to keep Detroit's defense on it's heels.  Look for a healthy amount of screen passes from the Redskins as well in order to keep the pass rush at bay.  Running backs against the Lions are averaging almost 7 receptions for 49 yards a game, so don't be surprised by a big receiving day for Thompson, Jones, and Kelley.  Look for Jones to have a more rounded stat line that may be less than 100 yards rushing, but over 100 yards total offense due to receiving yards.  This game will go back and forth, but the Redskins will be able to keep the ball for longer periods of time due the Lions not being able to get off the field.  The Lions will come out running in order to negate the pas rush and lull the Redskins defense into a stupor.  Cousins, though, will lead a potent attack that will have at least one passing touchdown of over 30 yards which will break the game open.  The opportunistic defense will be able to turn the Lions over at least once, and they will win the third down plays enough to give the ball back to the offense at critical times.  The Redskins prevail, and go into Cincinnati with a five game win streak.

Redskins win 30-24

Redskins vs. Ravens: The North Remembers

Our neighbors to the north remember. They remember the days of Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Anthony Wright, Chris Redman, Steve McNair (a 13-3 season followed by a plethora of injuries), Jeff Blake, Elvis Grbac, and Ranall Cunningham.  They remember what it is like to have a different starting quarterback almost every season, and have your Super Bowl winning quarterback not even be on the roster the next season.  That is why they gave so much money to Joe Flacco after he led them to the Super Bowl on an improbable statistical run through the playoffs, and it is why they can at least tolerate his 24-22 performance since his win in New Orleans four years ago.  Kirk Cousins is not at that level yet, but his season last year was statistically better than any season Flacco has had in his entire career.  Superior statistics are not exactly equivalent to a Lombardi Trophy (see Dan Marino), but Sunday's game against the Ravens will be a continuation of The Kirk Cousins Contract Tour 2016 as Cousins must prove he can move the ball against a stingy defense on the road.  Cousins must make McCloughan and the Redskins front office remember what it was like to rest their laurels on the likes of John Beck, Rex Grossman, and an over the hill Mark Brunell.  It begins Sunday when the Redskins make the 45 minute drive up I-95 to face the Ravens.

Quantity vs. Quality: Quantity has a quality all it's own.  One team has lived by that mantra so far this season in having a superior number of rushing attempts, passing attempts, drives, and plays run.  Of course that team is the Ravens.  Maybe not what you were expecting, but the Ravens outpace the Redskins in all four of those categories having a higher volume of offensive output.  The problem lies in the results. The Redskins have amassed 140 more passing yards in 18 less attempts, 140 more total offensive yards in 40 less plays, and surprisingly only 5 less yards rushing on 17 less attempts.  Think about that.  As maligned as the Redskins running game has been this season, their yards per attempt (4.4) is almost a full yard better than the Ravens (3.7).  All of this means that the Redskins have been able to move the ball more efficiently than the Ravens, and they must continue to do so this weekend.  The Ravens's offense relies on running a lot of plays and getting a lot of chances to score, so forcing Flacco and the Ravens to make the most of their possessions is key.  The Redskins must continue the Matt Jones renaissance in order to keep the ball on their side, continue to score on every other possession, and continue to spread the ball around to numerous receivers in order to keep the Ravens defense off balance.  They will need to do this because the Ravens defense has quietly become one of the better defenses in the league, and the game may come down to which defensive style wins out.

Bending, Breaking, and the Forgotten Art of Forcing Punts: This game will be based more on which defense can impose it's will on the other team.  The Redskins may not have been able to stop people on a consistent basis, but they have been opportunistic.  They boast the second best turnover percentage (19.5%) in the league, and that was on full display last week against Cleveland.  They have relied on turnovers to stop drives, and they cannot pull a Carlos Rogers and drop sure interceptions or not be able to recover fumbles when they happen.  The Ravens, though, rely on turning people over through punts.  The Ravens defense has forced 26 punts this season, which is second best in the league.  They have done this by being third in the league in plays per drive (4.8) and first in the league in yards allowed per drive (21.3).  They have also forced less turnovers than the Redskins.  This means the Ravens have been able to actually stop people on defense and give the ball back to their offense.  The Ravens high volume offense relies on their defense limiting the possessions of the other team, so the Redskins must be able to sustain drives if they plan on having the bus ride home be a pleasant one.  The Redskins opportunistic offense relies on their defense giving them chances to score through forcing turnovers.  If the Redskins cannot force turnovers and have short drives it could be a long day for the Burgundy and Gold.  They must look to their MVP's so far this season to guide them through this game.

The MVP's Must Step Up: The Redskins MVP's must come to play this weekend.  It may not have dawned on anyone, but the past two weeks have seen Josh Norman have major pregame rhetorical spats with the likes of Odell Beckham and Terrelle Pryor. This week, though, Norman's nemesis is not as hot of a ticket on the heavyweight circuit.  Josh Norman vs. Mike Wallace does not move the needle as much, and maybe for the better.  Norman can now focus more on shutting down the Ravens receivers without the media trying to turn it into a soap opera type narrative.  The other MVP's have been just as well documented as Norman this season, sans the major media hype, and they must show up this weekend if the Redskins want a chance to win.  Dustin Hopkins must be on point with his kicks and convert his field goal attempts into points, and Tress Way must pin the Ravens deep when he gets the chance.

This game will be a litmus test to see where the Redskins are as a team.  The Ravens are a team with a winning record and a stingy defense that the Redskins must step up to in order to given themselves confidence that they can put themselves back atop the NFC East.  The Redskins offense must not get discouraged if they find themselves be stymied early by the Ravens defense, and having to watch the Redskins defense allow Terrance West to run all over them.  The Redskins must be committed to ball control and running Matt Jones in order to set up play action.  Watch for Flacco to take early chances deep in order to test the Redskins safeties, and look for Joe Barry to dial up all or nothing blitzes in order to try and rattle Flacco.  The Redskins will find themselves down again at the half, but their first drive of the second half goes for a score, they get a timely second half turnover, and Flacco and the Ravens squander a last minute drive.  Redskins are 3-2 going into a showdown with the Eagles next week.

Redskins Win 27-24

Redskins vs. Browns: The Revenant Part II

rev·e·nant

ˈrevəˌnäN,-nənt

noun

1. a person who has returned, especially supposedly from the dead.

If Alejandro Inarritu was ever thinking about making a sequel to The Revenant, he may want to consider bringing a film crew to FedEx Field on Sunday because when the Browns take the field the Redskins will be staring at two players who they thought had been left for dead.  The first needs no introduction.  Robert Griffin was supposed to have his shot at vengeance this weekend as the NFL scheduling gods bestowed their benevolence on Griffin by giving him a shot to vanquish Kirk Cousins in the very city that had forsaken him.  But Griffin did what he does best and got injured, which deprived him of a chance to stick it to the Redskins and deprived the DC Sports Media of a week long conjecture fest by asking such questions as "Did the Redskins Keep the Right QB?", "Is the Redskins Season Over if Griffin Wins", "If Griffin Wins, What Body Part Should Scot McCloughan Lose First?", "If Griffin Wins Is Jay Gruden a Retroactive Racist for Choosing Cousins Over Griffin?".  Alas, it was not meant to be, but the other revenant of the the Browns will most certainly have his name called on Sunday because of his play on the field.

Terrelle Pryor has been left for dead so many times it is hard to believe he is at the top of the Fantasy Football hype machine almost 6 years after it looked like he would go the way of Maurice Clarett.  After leaving Ohio State in 2011 because of the sports memorabilia selling scandal, Pryor's future in football was uncertain until the Raiders selected him in the Supplemental Draft in 2011.  In 2013 he would have a resurgence of his talents through the first three games, but he would miss a chance to play against RG3 and the Redskins in Week 4 of the 2013 season due to a concussion.  He would fall into obscurity again in 2014, but Pryor now finds himself in a new position playing on the same team as RG3 and coming off an historical display of offense that had Fantasy Football owners scrambling on the waiver wire this past week.  His chance to prove that last week was not an anomaly begins this week as he rides into FedEx Field as a specter from the past that must prove that the blood that runs through his veins is still warm.  It will be the Redskins' job to prove otherwise, but it may prove to be both hard and easy at the same time.  Here are the game notes:

Air Raid!!!!: The yards per completion stats on both sides of the ball, for both teams, indicate that we could see some explosive plays through the air.  The Redskins and Browns are averaging 12.8 and 13.0 yards per completion on offense (3rd and 2nd best in the league so far this season), and giving up 12.7 and 12.5 yards per completion on defense.  These stats are exacerbated by the fact that both secondaries are banged up and the Redskins have a propensity for giving up big plays.  Look for the Redskins to use a lot of spread formations and deep go routes with DeSean Jackson to try and exploit the Browns secondary.  If Pryor can get going, though, and Isaiah Crowell can continue to gain 4.7 yards every time he touches the ball it could be a long day for the defense.  The Browns will try to cause confusion in the Redskins defense by moving Pryor all over the field, and they will exploit the Redskins horrendous run defense by feeding Crowell the ball in order to open up big plays in play action and misdirection.  Don't be surprised if Ryan Kerrigan and the rest of the linebackers put on their best matador impression as they over pursue on misdirection and read option running plays that set up Cody Kessler to try and hit the deep ball.  But have no fear, the only way to stop a potent offense is through another potent offense.

The Red Zone Percentage Myth:  Maybe not a myth, but the rage about the Redskins has been their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone while overlooking the fact that they are scoring at a very high clip.  The Redskins are scoring on 51.6% of their drives (3rd best in the league), but they have only converted 21.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (2nd worst in the league).  That got me to thinking about which is more important to winning; red zone TD percentage or overall scoring percentage.  I tallied the wins and losses for the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in each category since the Redskins are in the top 10 in scoring percentage and the bottom 10 in red zone TD percentage.  Here is what I found:

Red Zone TD% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 13-17

Bottom 10 Teams: 17-14

Scoring% Combined Records

Top 10 Teams: 15-15

Bottom 10 Teams: 11-20

All of this means that we may want to tone down the vitriol we throw at Jay Gruden and Sean McVay about their inefficiencies in the red zone as far as it's significance to winning and losing.  The Redskins are next to last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone, yet the nine other teams that join them in the bottom ten of that list have a better combined record than the 10 teams with the best red zone percentage.  The Redskins find themselves in better company in the scoring percentage category where the Top 10 scoring percentage teams out pace the bottom 10 by a larger margin than their red zone percentage counterparts, and the top 10 scoring percentage teams even have a better overall record than the best red zone percentage teams. This shows that while the Redskins red zone play calling makes you think that Sean McVay rubs paint thinner on his clipboard before every game so he can huff the fumes while calling plays, it may be more important that the Redskins put themselves in position to score points on every other drive.  This scoring percentage will play a factor as the big plays may accrue, and drive efficiency becomes a factor.

If It Ain't Broke Don't Fix It: The one thing the Redskins have been able to do well all season is sustain drives on offense, and it will be of utmost importance to do this on Sunday.  If you add the Redskins average starting field position (32.5 yardline) to their average yardage gained per drive (39.6), it means that on average every Redskins drive should get within a 46 yard field goal range before it gets stopped.  Obviously that will not always happen, but the Browns are not very efficient having only scored on 24.3% of their drives and running 8 less plays on 6 more drives than the Redskins.  The Redskins should look to open up with long sustained drives that create any type of points to put pressure on the Browns to do the same.  If the Redskins find that they have a lead, they should look to start hitting home runs down the field to continue to pressure the Browns offense to make big plays.

The last time the Browns faced an offense as good as the Redskins the allowed the Eagles to score 29 points.  Look for the same thing to happen this week with the Redskins being able to hit their underneath routes early due to the Browns being wary of the deep ball.  Crowder, Garcon, and Reed will have big games in the beginning, and look for DeSean to open up after the first quarter.  The Browns will keep it close early, but a big pass play opens the game up for the Redskins that the Browns never recover from.  A close game, but Redskins fans should get a break from a last minute nail biter.

Redskins win 31-21