What Would It Take to Part Ways With Kirk Cousins?

The rumors surrounding Kyle Shanahan's possible move to San Francisco has put the DC area into a frenzy.  The Redskins and their fan base are now on high alert as the iterations and possibilities of what will happen to Kirk Cousins grew exponentially when it was reported earlier this week that the 49ers may want Kyle Shanahan to be their next head coach.  The threat of Cousins's former mentor moving to a team with a ton of cap space and a horrible quarterback situation has now put the genuine fear within the fan base that Scot McCloughan may willingly give up Kirk Cousins if the price is right.  The general options for what could happen with Kirk Cousins has already been discussed, but what has not been entered into the narrative so far is what would it take for the Redskins to trade Kirk Cousins?  Shanahan moving to the 49ers gives McCloughan an easy target for trade negotiations given Shanahan's familiarity with, and affinity for, Kirk Cousins but there are other quarterback starved teams that may be willing to hear the Redskins out on a deal.  So let's have some fun and come up with some trade partners and scenarios for Kirk Cousins that would get Dan Snyder so excited he would need to change his sheets in the middle of the night.  Just as a point before we get started, my position is that we sign Cousins to a 6 year $120 Million contract and keep him long term. These trade scenarios are purely academic conjecture.

Kirk Cousins for Draft Picks

San Francisco 49ers: Cousins to the 49ers for either their 1st Round Pick in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd Round pick in 2018

Obviously if any team gives the Redskins two first round picks for Kirk Cousins it is hard to argue that it would be a bad trade, and if anyone would be willing to do that it is Kyle Shanahan.  But it may also be advantageous for the Redskins to consider Option B in this scenario.  The 49ers hold the second overall pick in this year's draft, meaning that if they gave us both their first and second round pick this year it would give us four picks in the first two rounds and three picks in the top 40.  Add in another second rounder next year that could be around the same spot as this year, and it may be hard for McCloughan to pass on that.  This is the minimum the Redskins should be looking at for a trade for Cousins and the 49ers may be the most likely suitor given their situation and cap space.

Chicago Bears: Cousins to the Bears for either their 1st Round Pick in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd Round pick in 2018

The Bears hold the 3rd overall pick this year, so these choices would be enticing for the same reasons as they were enticing for a possible trade with the 49ers.  It would give the Redskins either two first round picks or four picks in the first two rounds this year and three in the first 40.  The Redskins will not have a cushy middle man in this deal as they would with San Francisco, but the Bears may even be worse off than the 49ers as far as personnel goes.  Their current depth chart lists Matt Barkley and some guy named David Fales as their only QB's.  Maybe Fales is the next Jeff Garcia, but more than likely the Bears would have to at least hear McCloughan out if he offers Cousins up to them for this price.


New York Jets: Cousins to the Jets for either their 1st Round Pick in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd Round pick in 2018.

The Jets may finally get what they were looking for prior to the 2015 season.  With Bryce Petty injured and Christian Hackenberg as their only other option, the Jets are in the same boat as the Bears.  They should at least entertain this offer from McCloughan if he comes calling, and with the Jets sitting on the 6th overall pick this year it would still be a win for the Skins if they can pull this off.

Cleveland Browns: Cousins to the Browns for either their 1st Round Pick (12th overall) in 2017 and 2018 OR their 1st and 2nd round pick in 2017 and their 2nd and 3rd Round pick in 2018

This would be the kicker of all kickers.  Cousins would, yet again, have to play alongside Robert Griffin.  Roger Goodell should force this trade for the sheer circus it would create in Cleveland.  The Browns are not parting ways with the first overall pick, but lucky for the Redskins that the Browns acquired the Eagles's 2017 first round pick (12th overall) when the Eagles traded up to get Carson Wentz last year. Since the pick is outside the top 10 the Redskins should ask for another 2018 3rd rounder if the Browns refuse to give up two first rounders, but rest assured that if negotiations start going sour with Cousins and his agent, McCloughan could threaten this trade in an attempt to drive down price.

Cousins for Player to be Named Right Now

The Redskins were a part of the last truly great player-for-player trade in the NFL when they shipped Champ Bailey to Denver for Clinton Portis.  They could do this again with Cousins because there are some teams in need of a QB that have players in positions that the Redskins desperately need to fill.  And aren't the Redskins long over due for an off season move that makes everyone go crazy? Here are three trades for players that could make NFL analysts look like they opened the Ark of the Covenant after they get done talking about it.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Cousins and The Redskins's 2017 1st Round pick to Jacksonville for Jalen Ramsey and the Jags's 2017 3rd Round Pick.

This would shore up the other side of the defense by having Ramsey play opposite Josh Norman.  McCloughan is not in the business of giving up picks, but Ramsey was Jacksonville's first round pick last year and they may be unwilling to part ways with him so soon.  The Redskins may have to give up that first round pick to sweeten pot, but they would be getting a young play maker that would add depth to the secondary and be under contract for the next three seasons.  There are also rumblings that the Jags should move on from Blake Bortles and the Redskins could be all too happy to oblige.

Arizona Cardinals: Cousins to Arizona for Patrick Peterson and Arizona's 2017 3rd Round Pick.

Getting another shutdown corner to play opposite Josh Norman would be a great luxury, and the Cardinals need to think about life after Carson Palmer.  Cousins would be a huge addition for them, although there may be some PTSD from the Kevin Kolb trade that is almost similar to this one.  Peterson may be older, but he could play with Norman and not have to be THE guy all the time.  His contract is also favorable as he only has $8 Million in dead money left on his contract after this year, and that number drops to $4 Million in 2018.  His cap hit, though, is rather large (around $13 Million over the next four years) but could you imagine the off season hype of having Josh Norman and Patrick Peterson as the Redskins's starting cornerbacks?

LA Rams: Cousins and The Redskins's 2017 1st round pick for Aaron Donald and their 2018 2nd Round Pick.

I know.  Another scenario where The Redskins are trading a first round pick along with Cousins.  I know.  Aaron Donald is a 4-3 defensive tackle who may be too small and inexperienced to play nose tackle in a 3-4.  I know.  The Rams already have Jared Goff who was the number one overall pick last year.  But if you hadn't noticed, the Rams do not have a fist round pick this year and they were not particularly good on offense in 2016.  With Sean McVay at the helm, the Redskins may be able to tug at the heart strings of the head coach and offer him the quarterback he helped mold over the last two years.  Goff did not exactly wow people, and with the Chargers moving in on their turf the Rams may need to make a splash to sustain interest in the team.  Aaron Donald will bring a pass rushing persona onto the Redskins defensive line that could boost the play of those around him, and his contract would allow for more maneuverability in free agency.

So there you have it.  All of these trades are speculative at best, but the Redskins should not give Cousins up for anything less that what has been stated above.  Cousins should be resigned long term, but when has this team done right by any quarterback?  More than likely the Redskins will place a non exclusive franchise tag on him and let the bidding begin.

Kirk Cousins and the $26 Million Myth

Twenty Six Million Dollars per year is just a number, yet some have speculated that it could be the going rate for Kirk Cousins if he were to hit the open market and seemingly anyone who has ever watched Kirk Cousins play has an opinion on the matter.  Some say he should get the money.  Some say he shouldn't get the money.  And some have said both over the past year.  But the $26 Million per year price tag does not mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of NFL contracts.  Yes, that would put a tremendous strain on The Redskins yearly salary cap, but without any guaranteed money that number is worthless to Kirk Cousins.  In theory we could sign him to a 10 year $260 Million contract, and if none of it is guaranteed then we can cut him at any time and not have to pay him another cent.  What should concern an almost 29 year old Kirk Cousins, and a fiscally fickle franchise like the Washington Redskins, is the amount of fully guaranteed money that will be a part of a long term contract.  That number should supersede the per year salary as the driving force behind any long term negotiation because that is the number the player will get regardless of whether or not he is one the team, but it is rarely brought up in any discussion about resigning Kirk Cousins. Sports agent Joel Corry stated in his interview with the Sports Junkies in the link above that Cousins could get $60 Million in fully guaranteed money on the open market, and if the Redskins want to keep Cousins at a reasonable salary cap number they may need to increase the amount of fully guaranteed money beyond $60 Million.  Here is a contract that could work given the circumstances:

6 years $120,000,000 with a $36,000,000 signing bonus and $74,000,000 fully guaranteed

$20,000,000 per year with $14,000,000 in base salary and $6,000,000 in signing bonus every year.  Base salary in years 1-2 are fully guaranteed, and $10,000,000 of year 3 base salary is fully guaranteed.
                      

Instead of writing a dry post about why this could work, it may be better to justify this contract by envisioning Scot McCloughan pitching this contract to Kirk Cousins in a fictitious contract talk.  This is probably what it would sound like:

Kirk, baby.  Good to see you.  I know you're a man of business so let's just get down to brass tacks.  You may not believe it, but I have a long term offer for you that may tickle your fancy.  Here it is (McCloughan hands him he offer stated above).  No, I don't take you for an idiot, but hear me out on this contract.  Yes, you will only be getting $20 Million per year, but $74 Million would be the second largest guaranteed amount of money behind Andrew Luck. Of course I think you are better than Andrew Luck, and not just in your elocution skills.  But Andrew was only 26 when he signed that contract and those three years make a difference.  You'll be 29 before next year starts, and I am still giving you only $2 Million less in overall money than Andrew Luck, but it is hard to come up with comparable contracts within your age range.  The two contracts you should be looking at for comparisons are Joe Flacco's old contract and Tony Romo's contract.  Romo signed his contract when he was 33 and I'm giving you the same amount of years and almost $20 Million more over the course of the contract.  Flacco was 28 when he signed his old contract in 2013 for the same years and the same money as I am giving you now, but he only got $29 Million in guaranteed money and he was coming off a freaking Super Bowl victory.  I am giving you almost $50 Million more in guarantees than Flacco to show you how committed we are to keeping you here.  And while were on the subject of Super Bowl's, let's not forget what got you here in the first place.  

Maybe you haven't noticed, but we need to fill a lot of holes that could make this team that much better in 2017 and beyond.  Giving you more than $20 Million per year would put a strain on trying to fill those holes.  You want Pierre, DeSean, Vernon, and Chris Thompson back?  You want to not worry about whether or not were are getting the ball back on every defensive 3rd down under 25 yards?  You want to rewrite the way high profile quarterback sign contracts?  I thought you did.  You make this team better, and this team has made you better.  Let us build that team around you by taking this contract.  We believe in you and..........what?  Yes, I mean that.  We believe in you, and ah? Oh C'mon Kirk, not this again.  Of course we front loaded the guaranteed money, but that is what's best for the both of us.  We are betting on you now, Kirk.  We feel that you have at least three good years in you and we are so confident in that fact that we are guaranteeing you $56 Million in the first three years.  And yes, after year three we would be able to cut ties with you and only be on the hook for $6 Million per year, but that is not what we want.  We want you to play out the full term of this contract and lead this team to glory.  What?.......(McCloughan lets out an audible sigh of frustration) OK Kirk.  You think this is not a fair assessment of your skills do you?  You think you can get more on the open market?  Well, let's not get too greedy here my friend.  I didn't want it to come to this, but let's take a long hard look at your other options and this rosy open market.

I don't want it to come to this, but we could always franchise you again.  Yes, that is more money in the short term, but the question is what will you do come next year?  You better hope that we can win, and with $4 Million less in cap space this year that may be an issue if we can't sign who we want.  What will the market be for a 30 year old quarterback who cannot be better than right around .500 even when managing a highly prolific offense? Think about that.  What would we do without you?  Kirk, the question you should be asking is what would you do without us.  You going to follow Kyle Shanahan to Denver and have to fight through another quarterback controversy for the next two seasons with Lynch and Siemian?  You going to go to Arizona and take a bigger gamble that their offensive line will holdup and not get you killed like Carson Palmer?  Maybe you can clean up Jay Cutler's mess in Chicago and spend the next three years in rebuilding mode, or take whatever ungodly contract the 49ers can offer you with their $87 Million in cap space and play for a different head coach every year.  Wait, I got it.  You can stick it to Robert again and go play for Cleveland.  That sounds like fun, right?  No, Kirk.  The best place for you is here.  You know the offense.  We'll keep as many players we can and add more to make it better.  We are on the cusp here of something great for the first time in 30 years in DC.  Sure, you could probably get more money elsewhere but it won't mean as much as it could if you bring a championship to DC.  We are close Kirk.  Take time to think about this offer and I'll see you tomorrow.  

There it is.  This contract would be pricey, but not much more than what we are paying Cousins now so the salary cap does not take a colossal hit.  The length may make some squeamish, but it is time to commit to someone who has shown he can get it done.  This contract is compensatory without being too over the top, and Cousins would at least have to think about signing it.  He will be 29 in August, and while he holds most of the leverage in these negotiations he must realize on some level that he will be gambling on himself again if he leaves for an unknown situation.  McCloughan would be wise to start at this point and try to negotiate the amount of guaranteed money without raising the per year cap hit.  If a deal cannot be reached then it is the franchise tag again for Kirk Cousins and another year of speculation that could possibly end with his ultimate departure from the Washington Redskins.